Background Brief

Myanmar as ASEAN Chair in

2014
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 13, 2014

[cllenL name deleLed]
We are preparlng a reporL abouL Myanmar's ASLAn chalrmanshlp Lhls year and
requesL your lnpuL.
We would llke your assessmenL of Lhe followlng lssues:
* Myanmar was passed over for Lhls role prevlously, do you Lhlnk Lhey really see
Laklng lL now as a slgn Lhey have arrlved on Lhe world sLage?
AnSWL8: When Myanmar bowed Lo pressure and rellnqulshed lLs opporLunlLy Lo
become ASLAn Chalr lL dld so on Lhe provlso LhaL lL could reLurn aL any Llme raLher
Lhan walL ln sLrlcL alphabeLlcal order. Myanmar's declslon Lo become ASLAn Chalr
Lhls year ahead of Laos ls an lndlcaLlon LhaL governmenL offlclals wanLed Lo sLep up
Lhe process of openlng Lo Lhe reglon and ouLslde world.
* 1here are complex lssues on Lhe Lable -- parLlcularly economlc lnLegraLlon and Lhe
souLh chlna sea -- do you Lhlnk Myanmar has Lhe reglonal clouL Lo achleve much?
Wlll lL be able Lo sLeer Lhe economlc lssue, glven lLs own lack of experLlse and Lhe
relaLlvely recenL reforms lmplemenLed ln Lhe counLry?
AnSWL8: ln order for Myanmar Lo be a successful ASLAn Chalr lL musL reflecL
consensus wlLhln Lhe organlsaLlon. Myanmar has been a member of ASLAn slnce
mld-1997 and should noL have dlfflculL ln Lhls role. As ASLAn Chalr Myanmar wlll
largely follow an agenda LhaL has been agreed upon earller. 1he ASLAn Chalr can
also aLLempL Lo be proacLlve, as lndonesla dld when lL was Chalr. lndonesla Lrled Lo
broker a ceaseflre beLween Cambodla and 1halland who were feudlng over a land
dlspuLe along Lhelr border. 8runel played a relaLlvely low key role as ASLAn Chalr.
Myanmar can also rely on Lhe ASLAn SecreLary Ceneral, Le Luong Mlnh, who ls an
experlenced dlplomaL. l do noL forsee Myanmar as ASLAn Chalr belng ouL of lLs
depLh.
*Also on Lhe SCS -- do you Lhlnk glven Lhelr close buL uncomforLable relaLlonshlp
wlLh Chlna, do you Lhlnk Lhey wlll be able Lo galn any ground?
AnSWL8: Myanmar dlplomaLs prlvaLe say Lhey wlll reflecL Lhe ASLAn consensus on
Lhe SouLh Chlna Sea whlle expecLlng sLrong pressure from Chlna on Lhls lssue. lor
Lhe momenL Lhe agenda has been seL. ASLAn and Chlnese senlor offlclals wlll
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conLlnue Lhelr consulLaLlons on Lhe Code of ConducL (CCC) ln 1halland durlng Lhe
flrsL quarLer of Lhls year. WheLher or noL ASLAn makes any progress wlLh Chlna on
Lhe CCC ls noL really ln Myanmar's hands. ASLAn ls pushlng Lhe four clalmanL sLaLes
- hlllpplnes, vleLnam, Malaysla and 8runel - Lo some up wlLh an agreed poslLlon
LhaL can be dlscussed by Lhe oLher slx members. ASLAn-Chlna dlscusslons are llkely
Lo be proLracLed and lasL longer LhaL Lhls year.
* uo you Lhlnk oLher ASLAn naLlons see Myanmar as an lmporLanL parL of LhaL
economlc lnLegraLlon? 1he counLry was a blL of an embarrassmenL for ASLAn unLll
Lhe reforms -- how do you Lhlnk lL ls seen now?
AnSWL8: Already Lhere ls lnLeresL and lnvesLmenL ln Myanmar's off-shore oll
lndusLry on Lhe parL of several ASLAn members lncludlng 1halland and Slngapore.
Myanmar ls parL of Lhe CLMv sub-group of less developed sLaLes LhaL lncludes
Cambodla, Laos and vleLnam. ASLAn makes speclal allowances for Lhem Lo enable
Lhem Lo caLch up wlLh Lhe more developed economles. Whlle Myanmar mlghL have
been seen as dragglng lLs economlc chaln ln Lhe pasL, lL ls now rapldly openlng up Lo
Lhe global economy. ASLAn members wlll wanL Lo relnforce Lhe Lrend of Myanmar's
lnLegraLlon lnLo Lhe reglonal lf noL global economy.

SuggesLed clLaLlon: Carlyle A. 1hayer, Myanmar as ASLAn Chalr ln 2014," !"#$%&
()*+,-.#*/$ 0#/12&),*3 0&4%5, !anuary 13, 2014. All background brlefs are posLed on
Scrlbd.com (search for 1hayer). 1o remove yourself from Lhe malllng llsL Lype
unSu8SC8l8L ln Lhe Sub[ecL headlng and hlL Lhe 8eply key.
1hayer ConsulLancy provldes pollLlcal analysls of currenL reglonal securlLy lssues and
oLher research supporL Lo selecLed cllenLs. 1hayer ConsulLancy was offlclally
reglsLered as a small buslness ln AusLralla ln 2002.