Averages Disk

Avg-1
HISTORIC MONTHLY SALES DATA
Sales Volume
JAN
63
FEB
57
MAR
59
APR
48
MAY
55
JUN
61
JUL
61
AUG
45
SEP
54
OCT
68
NOV
56
Sales Volume
JAN
70
FEB
59
MAR
60
APR
70
MAY
72
JUN
62
JUL
65
AUG
58
SEP
56
OCT
68
NOV
65
75
63
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
Estimation
Last observation
Arithmetic mean
Estimation is purely subjective - success is

dependent on skill of the forecaster.
Last observation is a'last resort'.
Arithmetic mean is not sufficient, but a useful
benchmark.
Page 1
Avg-1
DEC
66
JAN
70
FEB
59
MAR
60
APR
70
MAY
72
JUN
62
JUL
65
AUG
58
SEP
56
OCT
68
NOV
65
DEC
63
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
DEC
63
61
Page 2
Avg-1 chart
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
JAN
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN

Sales Volume
Page 3
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

Arithmetic mean
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
Moving avg
Sales Volume
JAN FEB MAR

63
57
59
3 month moving average

3 month WMA (proportional)
Proportional weights
0.20 0.30
APR
48
MAY
55
JUN
61
JUL
61
AUG
45
SEP
54
OCT
68
NOV
56
59.67 54.67 54.00 54.67 59.00 55.67 53.33 55.67 59.33

59.20 53.10 53.70 56.60 59.80 53.00 52.70 59.20 59.20
Proportional weights must add up to

1.
0.50
Use the F4 function key to make a

cell reference absolute
Page 4
Moving avg
DEC
66
JAN
70
FEB
59
MAR
60
APR
70
MAY
72
JUN
62
JUL
65
AUG
58
SEP
56
OCT
68
NOV
65
DEC
63
63.33
63.40
64.00
66.00
65.00
63.70
63.00
61.70
63.00
64.80
67.33
69.00
68.00
66.60
66.33
65.50
61.67
60.90
59.67
58.40
60.67
62.40
63.00
64.10
65.33
64.60
ghts must add up to
Page 5
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
Sales Volume
3 month moving average
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
3 month WMA (proportional)
Adaptive
Weighted Moving Average with adaptive filtering
QUARTER
ACTUAL SALES
OPEN WEIGHTS
QUARTER
FORECAST
ACTUAL SALES
1
12567
0.20
SALES FOR 20XX

2
13456
0.20
FORECAST FOR 20XX

5
6
11645
10351
11120
0
3
10200
0.20
4
11000
0.40
7
0
0
8
0
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.38
0.00
0.00
Always look out for validation

opportunities. If the actual
sales match the forecast the
adjusted weights should be the
same as the original.
ADAPTIVE FILTERING - RECALCULATION OF NEW WEIGHTS

Adjusted weights for Qrt 6 forecast
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.18
0.00
0.00
Page 7
Weights are adjusted to take

account of new knowledge of
the difference between the
forecast and actual sales
Adaptive
Always look out for validation

opportunities. If the actual
sales match the forecast the
adjusted weights should be the
same as the original.
Weights are adjusted to take

account of new knowledge of
the difference between the
forecast and actual sales
Page 8
E-S
Simple Exponential Smoothing

JAN
FEB
MAR APR
MAY JUN
JUL
AUG SEP
OCT NOV
Sales Volume
114.00 121.00 119.00 120.00 115.00 125.00 119.00 120.00 128.00 119.00 122.00
E-S Coefficient
0.40
Forecast
114.00 116.80 117.68 118.61 117.16 120.30 119.78 119.87 123.12 121.47 121.68
Exponential smoothing
coefficient is a value between 0
and 1 - the higher the value the
lower the degree of smoothing
and vice versa
Page 9
E-S
DEC
118.00
120.21
Page 10
E-S chart
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
Sales Volume
Page 11
JUL
AUG
Series2
SEP
OCT
NOV
E-S Table
Simple Exponential Smoothing

JAN FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
Sales volume
114.00 121.00 119.00 120.00 115.00 125.00 119.00 120.00 128.00 119.00
E-S COEFFICIENT
0.20
Forecast
114.00 115.40 116.12 116.90 116.52 118.21 118.37 118.70 120.56 120.25
Data Table Exploring the Sensitivity of the E-S Coefficient
E
S
C
O
E
F
0.05
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
JAN
114.00
114.00
114.00
114.00
114.00
114.00
114.00
114.00
114.00
114.00
114.00
FEB
115.40
114.35
114.70
115.40
116.10
116.80
117.50
118.20
118.90
119.60
120.30
MAR
116.12
114.58
115.13
116.12
116.97
117.68
118.25
118.68
118.97
119.12
119.13
APR
116.90
114.85
115.62
116.90
117.88
118.61
119.13
119.47
119.69
119.82
119.91
MAY
116.52
114.86
115.56
116.52
117.02
117.16
117.06
116.79
116.41
115.96
115.49
This is an example of a one-way data table

to see the effect of varying exponential
smoothing co-efficients on the 12 months
forecast - more details on data tables in the
Busplan.xls model.
Page 12
JUN
118.21
115.37
116.50
118.21
119.41
120.30
121.03
121.72
122.42
123.19
124.05
JUL
118.37
115.55
116.75
118.37
119.29
119.78
120.02
120.09
120.03
119.84
119.50
AUG
118.70
115.77
117.07
118.70
119.50
119.87
120.01
120.03
120.01
119.97
119.95
SEP
120.56
116.38
118.17
120.56
122.05
123.12
124.00
124.81
125.60
126.39
127.20
E-S Table
NOV
DEC
122.00 118.00
120.60 120.08
OCT
120.25
116.51
118.25
120.25
121.14
121.47
121.50
121.33
120.98
120.48
119.82
NOV
120.60
116.79
118.63
120.60
121.39
121.68
121.75
121.73
121.69
121.70
121.78
DEC
120.08
116.85
118.56
120.08
120.38
120.21
119.88
119.49
119.11
118.74
118.38
Page 13

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Avg-1

HISTORIC MONTHLY SALES DATA

Estimation is purely subjective - success is

FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN

FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV

HISTORIC MONTHLY SALES DATA

JAN FEB MAR

3 month moving average

59.67 54.67 54.00 54.67 59.00 55.67 53.33 55.67 59.33

Proportional weights must add up to

Use the F4 function key to make a

ghts must add up to

3 month moving average

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

3 month WMA (proportional)

Weighted Moving Average with adaptive filtering

SALES FOR 20XX

FORECAST FOR 20XX

Always look out for validation

ADAPTIVE FILTERING - RECALCULATION OF NEW WEIGHTS

Weights are adjusted to take

Always look out for validation

Weights are adjusted to take

Simple Exponential Smoothing

Simple Exponential Smoothing

This is an example of a one-way data table

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