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B9311 Professor Lars A.

B9311Asset Pricing II Spring 2013 Course Outline and Syllabus

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Contact Information: Professor Lars A. Lochstoer Uris Hall 405B Phone: 851-2119 Email: Office Hours: Please email for an appointment. Description This is the second of a two course sequence that examines the asset pricing side of financial economics. The course will focus on the development of stylized facts and tools for the investigation of data, while the first course covered more theoretical aspects of asset pricing. The asset pricing field is vast, but we will focus primarily on two core ideas: 1. time-series properties of asset returns (predictability, volatility, correlations with other variables, etc.) 2. cross-sectional properties of asset returns implied by equilibrium asset pricing models (including CAPM, consumption-based asset pricing, factor models, etc.) Well also examine the bond market and look at some simple term structure models, as well as the pricing of equity index derivative securities. Finally, we will discuss some recent research on the commodity futures markets. We will use a variety of econometric techniques, including GMM and maximum likelihood, as well as various time-series models. We view these econometric techniques as a way of answering economic questions, rather than being interested in the econometric methodology per se. Prerequisites The course is designed for second year doctoral students in finance. The prerequisites are Finance Theory I, Asset Pricing Theory, Intro to Econometrics, and an additional upper level Econometrics class (Financial Econometrics, Time Series Analysis, or similar). Materials I will distribute lecture notes in class. You are required to yourself download and, if you want, print copies of any journal articles that we will cover. References are given in the back of this document, and I will in class let you know which articles we will focus on for each class. We will read substantial parts of the following book: Cochrane, John, 2005, Asset Pricing: Revised Edition Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press It is referred to as (AP) in the reading list.

B9311 Professor Lars A. Lochstoer

Other excellent reference books are the following:

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Campbell, John Y., Andrew W. Lo, and A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997, The Econometrics of Financial Markets, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press Duffie, Darrell, 2001, Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory, 3rd Edition, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press Singleton, Kenneth J., 2006, Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press Hamilton, James D., 1994, Time Series Analysis, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press You will need access and be willing to work in MatLab, Gauss or some other matrix programming language in order to solve the weekly problem sets. The Reading List includes both classic papers and newer material to give you an idea of how people are approaching the subject more recently. Requirements There will be substantial required homework assignments, and many of them will involve empirical work. In the last half of the class, you will in addition work on your own research proposal due at the end of the term. More information on this project will be given in class. Class participation is mandatory. You are expected to be prepared to discuss and answer questions related to the homework assignments and the required readings. There will be a final exam. Class Schedule We meet every Wednesday 4:15 7:00pm in 415 Warren from Jan. 30 to May 1, with the exception of the following dates. March 13 and March 20 (Business school first exam period and spring break, respectively). In addition, we have to reschedule the classes of February 20th, February 27th, and April 10th as I am giving talks at universities those dates. We will decide on alternative dates and times in class.

B9311 Professor Lars A. Lochstoer

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Tentative Reading List

We may deviate from this reading list. I will let you know about any such deviations in class.

1. The CAPM and an econometric review a. Methodology: CAPM, OLS, and early tests of the CAPM Any source to review CAPM theory. In AP, it is Ch. 9, but this chapter depends on Chapters 4, 5, and 6 as well. Time-series tests: Gibbons, Ross and Shanken (1989). AP Ch. 12. Cross-sectional tests: AP pp. 434 - 452. Other references: Shanken (1987), Shanken (1992), Black, Jensen, and Scholes (1972), Fama and MacBeth (1973)

b. Landmark critique of the unconditional CAPM Fama and French (1992)

c. Methodology: review of asymptotics for OLS and robust standard errors Any graduate-level econometrics textbook (e.g., Hamilton, referenced above).

2. Multifactor models I: Methodology, linear K-factor models, and anomalies a. The Fama-French Model and critiques Fama and French (1993) AP Ch. 9 MacKinlay (1995) Lo and MacKinlay (1990) Berk (1995) Daniel and Titman (1997)

b. General linear factor models AP Ch. 13

c. Anomalies and establishing a new stylized fact Momentum: Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2012), Daniel and Moskowitz (2012) Liquidity: Pastor and Stambaugh (2003)

B9311 Professor Lars A. Lochstoer Idiosyncratic volatility: Ang, Hodrick, Xing, and Zhang (2006, 2009)
Social networks: Cohen, Frazzini, and Malloy (2008) Inattention: Cohen and Frazzini (2008)

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d. Factor models and fund performance measurement Background reading: Carhart (1997), Berk and Green (2004) Mutual fund performance: Kosowski, Timmermann, Wermers, and White (2006) Hedge fund performance: Fung, Hsieh, Ramadorai, and Naik (2008)

3. Time-series properties of aggregate returns and dividends: Predictability AP Ch. 20.1 Shiller (1981) Fama and French (1989) Campbell and Shiller (1988) Lettau and Ludvigsson (2001a) Hodrick (1992) Stambaugh (1999) Boudoukh, Michaely, Richardson, and Roberts (2007) Ang and Bekaert (2006) Cochrane (2008, 2011) Pastor and Stambaugh (2009) Kelly and Pruitt (2012)

4. Beyond the unconditional CAPM a. Conditional linear factor models AP Ch. 8. Lettau and Ludvigsson (2001b) Lewellen and Nagel (2006), Daniel and Titman (2012), Nagel (2012) Other references: Jagannathan and Wang (1996), Ferson and Harvey (1999), Petkova and Zhang (2005)

b. Value, growth, and duration Campbell (1991) Campbell and Mei (1993) Dechow, Sloan, and Soliman (2004) Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004) van Binsbergen, Brandt, and Koijen (2010) Other references: Campbell (1993), Cohen, Polk, and Vuolteenaho (2003), Cohen, Polk, and Vuolteenaho (2006), Lettau and Wachter (2007)

B9311 Professor Lars A. Lochstoer

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5. Methodology: GMM tests of models with an observable stochastic discount factor Hansen and Singleton (1982) AP Ch. 10, 11 Nagel and Singleton (2011) Other references: Hansen, Heaton and Yaron (1996)

Required reading (although you do not need to follow in detail all of the math in the Hansen papers, especially when nonnegativity is imposed). The Jagannathan and Wang paper was suggested reading earlier in the semester. Here it is included because it develops an estimation methodology for the HJ-distance. Hansen and Jagannathan (1991) Hansen and Jagannathan (1997) AP The material on H-J bounds in Chapter 5, and Chapters 13 - 16 (they are short chapters) Jagannathan and Wang (1996) Hodrick and Zhang (2001) Li, Xu, and Zhang (2010) We will not discuss this related paper. It works out the econometrics of the HJ-distance when the null is that the econometrician has the wrong stochastic discount factor. Hansen, Heaton, and Luttmer (1995)

6. Consumption-based asset pricing The standard Consumption CAPM (CCAPM) and general background material: AP Ch. 21, Campbell (2003), Working (1960), Parker and Julliard (2005) The conditional CCAPM (e.g., habit): Lettau and Ludvigsson (2001b) Long-run risk: Bansal, Kiku and Yaron (2007) Euler equation errors: Lettau and Ludvigson (2009) Heterogeneous agents: Vissing-Jorgensen (2002), Mankiw and Zeldes (1991) Heterogeneous goods: Yogo (2006), Piazzesi, Schneider, and Tuzel (2007), Lochstoer (2009) Consumption disaster risk: Barro, Nakamura, Steinsson, and Ursua (2009) Learning: Johannes, Lochstoer, and Mou (2011) Other references: Mehra and Prescott (1985), Campbell and Cochrane (1999), Bansal and Yaron (2004), Rietz (1988), Barro (2009).

7. Equity volatility, equity index derivatives, and their implications for GE models Schwert (1989)

B9311 Professor Lars A. Lochstoer Bekaert and Wu (2000) Broadie, Chernov, and Johannes (2007) Broadie, Chernov, and Johannes (2009) Backus, Chernov, and Martin (2009) Drechsler and Yaron (2010)

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8. (Some) Financial frictions Funding liquidity Betting on Beta: Frazzini and Pedersen (2010) Embedded leverage: Frazzini and Pedersen (2011) Limits to arbitrage and market segmentation: Evidence from commodity markets Some background: Sundaresan (1981), Fama and French (1986). Facts and Fantasies: Gorton and Rouwenhorst (2006) Speculator capital: Etula (2010), Tang and Xiong (2010), Mou (2010) Producer hedging and commodity prices: Acharya, Lochstoer, and Ramadorai (2010)

9. What is total wealth and does it matter? Heaton and Lucas (2000) Moskowitz and Vissing-Jorgensen (2002) Campbell (1996) Santos and Veronesi (2005)

10. Explaining asset price innovations: news or ? a. News: Roll (1984) (see also Boudoukh, Richardson, Shen and Whitelaw (2007)) French and Roll (1986) Kothari and Shanken (1992) Tetlock (2008) b. Inattention: Huberman and Regev (2001) Tetlock (2010) Gilbert, Kogan, Lochstoer, and Ozyildirim (2012)

11. The term structure a. Motivation and some facts:

B9311 Professor Lars A. Lochstoer AP, Chapter 19 Litterman and Scheinkman (1991) Campbell and Shiller (1991) Bekaert and Hodrick (2001) Cochrane and Piazzesi (2006), Cieslak and Povala (2011) Bekaert, Hodrick, and Marshall (2001)

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b. Formal modeling: A good background source on this topic include Piazzesi (2003)

We will discuss some features of the following papers Dai and Singleton (2000) Duffee (2002) Ang and Piazzesi (2003) Duffee (2010)

c. Pricing both equity and bonds in an affine no-arbitrage framework Lettau and Wachter (2012) Koijen, Lustig and van Nieuwerburgh (2010)

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