Pro Blocks Adaptation Good

Yuri/John Shane & Michaels Lab

Pro Blocks
Adaptation Prevents Loss of Biodiversity in the Ocean
1. Source - IPCC. IPCC Technical Paper: Fifth Edition. Climate Change and Biodiversity. 2002. a. Analysis - By introducing aquaculture and mariculture, and enhancing sustainable agriculture and rural development, we will effectively adapt to the problem, thus, preventing any loss of biodiversity. i. Data - The Development of mariculture and aquaculture as a response to the impacts on coastal fisheries is an adaptation option. Aquaculture and mariculture would reduce the impact on the remaining coastal systems.

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Adaptation Prevents Loss of Biodiversity on Land

1. Source - IPCC. IPCC Technical Paper: Fifth Edition. Climate Change and Biodiversity. 2002. a. Analysis By achieving sustainable agriculture, the resilience of biodiversity increases.. i. Data Specific land-use activities to achieve sustainable agriculture include appropriate management of agricultural production systems; improved shifting cultivation with sufficient fallow periods, diversification of cropping systems, maintaining continuous ground cover, and nutrient restoration; and agroforestry systems that involve various combinations of woody and herbaceous vegetation with agricultural crops. Such activities could result in multiple agronomic, environmental, and socio-economic benefits, as well as conserve biodiversity.

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Adaptation Solves Existential Famine

1. [Hunger Risk] Source - Hans Herren, Millennium Institute, IFAD meeting in February. 2009 a. Analysis If we adapt to new crop rotation technology and water conservation techniques, we can avoid the hunger of 132 million people. i. Data - Climate change is expected to put 49 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2020, and 132 million by 2050. BUT Changing rainfall patterns will affect agricultural productivity, especially in African countries. Without the adoption of crop rotation and improved water conservation techniques, agricultural production could decline 10 25% by 2020 2. [Crop decline] Without the adoption of crop rotation and improved water conservation techniques, agricultural production could decline 1025% by 2020

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Climate Change Doesnt Cause Water Wars

1. [ small conflict ] Source Ragnhild Nords, Nils Petter Gleditsch. "Climate Change and Conflict." Political Geography. 2007. a. Analysis It is rather difficult to assume that migration was the cause of conflict in the past due to the fact that bigger military conflicts were occurring at the time. Also, many of the conflicts that did happen showed unorganized violence rather than armed violence. i. Data In many, perhaps most, of the 19 conflict cases, the environmental pressures are clearly mixed with inter-ethnic violence that predates the migration, and some cases (El Salvador, Guatemala) were probably escalated by the ideological tensions of the Cold War and fueled by outside powers. In the absence of a multivariate analysis, it is difficult to conclude how much of the violence to attribute to the migration. Many of the violent cases also exhibit mostly unorganized violence and do not show up in compilations of armed conflicts.

2. [Cooperation over war] Source - Ashok Swain, "Mission Not yet Accomplished: Managing Water Resources in the Nile River Basin," Journal of International Affairs 61, no. 2 (2008). a. Analysis Evidence shows that in the past decade, when water resources caused problems within nations, there was considerably more cooperation than conflict. This just goes on to show that water wars are extremely unlikely as a result of climate change. i. Data Research on water conflicts in the past decade shows that there is considerably more cooperation over trans-boundary water resources than conflict. 3. Water Conservation techniques solve.
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Pro Blocks Adaptation Good

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Arctic Ice Tipping Point has a small Impact

1. [no larger scale] Source - Winton, Michael. "Does the Arctic Sea Ice Have a Tipping Point?" GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 33 (2006) a. Analysis The arctic ice tipping point and temperatures essentially has no impact on the global scale. It may affect the immediate local area, but not the global population. i. Data - According to Michael WintonAlthough the elimination of Arctic sea ice would doubtless have enormous consequences for the local environment, these models do not show it to be particularly important for the larger scale climate changes. 2. Effects of Ice on Temperature- According to Michael Winton The relationship between Arctic and global temperatures is quite linear in both models indicating that the nonlinear changes in the Arctic ocean do not have significant impacts on the broader region temperatures 3. Mitigation cant Solve

Mild Climate Change Does Not Decrease Food Production

1. Source F.N. Tubiello, 2007: Food, Fibre and Forest Products. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability a. Data - These results, on the whole, project the potential for global food production to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1 to 3C, but above this range to decrease.

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Pro Blocks Adaptation Good

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Cloud Seeding Bad The Method is Dangerous

1. Source International Programme on Chemical Safety, World Health Organization. Silver Toxicology & Safety Report. N.d. a. Analysis Cloud seeding uses the method of putting chemicals into clouds. The chemical used is silver iodide, however, silver iodide has been proved dangerous and/or fatal to humans depending on exposure. But it is safe to assume that humans will be rather generously exposed to the substance due to the fact that the method would be used to attempt to mitigate climate change. Thus, the harmful effects will be more evident. i. The Office of Environment, Health and Safety, UC Berkeley, rates silver iodide as a Class C, non-soluble, inorganic, hazardous chemical that pollutes water and soil. It has been found to be highly toxic to fish, livestock and humans. Numerous medical articles demonstrate that humans absorb silver iodide through the lungs, nose, skin, and GI tract. Mild toxicity can cause GI irritation, renal and pulmonary lesions, and mild argyria (blue or black discoloration of the skin). Severe toxicity can result in hemorrhagic gastroenteritis, shock, enlarged heart, severe argyria, and death by respiratory depression.

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Cloud Seeding Has a Bad Precedent (Two examples)

1. Source Marshallsay, Dawn. EcoHearth Reporter. Weather Modification: Good or Bad for the Environment? May 30, 2012. a. The life-changing impact of weather modification provides the potential for serious accidents. One such example is the Operation Cumulus project, carried out by the British Royal Air Force and Western scientists during the period of August 4-15, 1953, which led to 35 flood-related deaths in Devon. A more recent, smaller-scale mishap occurred in June 2008, when the Russian Air Force tried seeding clouds over Moscow using bags of cement; one crashed through a roof after failing to turn to powder.

Desalination does not Solve

1. Source - Angela Haren Kelley. Golden Gate University School of Law (Ecology). Seawater Desalination: Climate Change Adaptation Strategy or Contributor? 2011. a. Analysis Even after producing insane amounts of energy to power a desalination project, it still cannot solve for climate change because creates a dependence on fossil fuels, which directly increases the emission of CO2! i. Data Consequently, desalination would indirectly cause more GHG emissions than alternatives. Studies indeed show that extensive development of seawater desalination could lead to greater dependence on fossil fuels, an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, and a worsening of climate change.

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Desalination Too Expensive

1. Source - Peter Gleick, National Scientist and Launch Chairman at American Geophysical Union Salt From Water, Money From Pockets?, City Brights Blog (May 29, 2009) a. Analysis Water desalination requires 30% more energy than existing interbasin supply systems delivering water to parts of places such as Southern California, and that water produced by the plant would cost $2,000 per acrefoot.

i. Data - A serious disadvantage to seawater desalination is the amount of energy it

requires. Seawater desalination is one of most energy intensive water supply option available. Desalination systems using reverse osmosis technology require about 30 percent more energy
than existing inter-basin supply systems delivering water to parts of Southern California. Consequently, desalination would indirectly cause more GHG emissions than alternatives. Studies indeed show that extensive development of seawater desalination could lead to greater dependence on fossil fuels, an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, and a worsening of climate change. The cost of energy also makes desalination very expensive. In reverse osmosis plants, the cost of energy accounts for about 50 percent of the plants operating costs. One proposed seawater desalination plant in the Camp Pendleton area in Southern California estimates that water produced by the plant would cost $2000 per acre-foot. This is extremely high compared to the current cost for treated water in that area, which remains between $600 and $700 per acre-foot. The high cost of seawater desalination requires that the government heavily subsidize desalination projects in order to ensure projects are profitable. For example, Poseidon requested at least $530 million in tax-free state bonds for its Carlsbad project. These public subsidies fund projects designed to generate profits for private companies. Poseidon originally projected a total cost of $270 million when it began the Carlsbad project in the late 1990s, but it now appears that it would cost at least twice that amount, with the public subsidizing the cost. The high costs of desalination and the associated GHG emissions call for a serious look at alternative uses of funds.

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Tipping Point Has Passed

1. Source Susan Solomon. (NOAA), 2009, Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. a. Analysis 1000 yrs to work. What this means is that the tipping point is not avoidably close, an NOAA study shows that no effort can solve for the tipping point it has already passed, which renders mitigation useless. i. Data A 2009 scientific study led by NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon reaches a powerful conclusion about the climate change caused by future increases of carbon dioxide: to a large extent, theres no going back. The study shows how changes in surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level are largely irreversible for more than 1,000 years after even if CO2 emissions are completely stopped.

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Poor Nations Can Do

According to the IPCC the way to increase development sustainability and adaptation capacity is 1.) Greater cooperation between industrialized and developing countries to align global and local priorities by improving policy/science interactions and working toward greater public awareness of climate change and adaptation issues (Wangati, 1996; Gupta and Hisschemller, 1997) Wang ati , F.J., 1996: The impact of climate variation and sustainable development in the Sudano-Sahelian region. In: Climate Variability, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-Arid Tropics [Ribot, J.C., A.R. Magalhes, and S.S. Panagides (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 7191. Gupta, J. and M. Hisschemller, 1997: Issue linkage as a global strategy toward sustainable development: a comparative case study of climate change. International Environmental Affairs, 9(4), 289308. 2.) Inclusion of global institutions for global-level adaptation, which would include research and facilitation of policy, funding, and monitoring at all levels (Ahmed et al., 1999) Ahmed, A.U., M. Alam, and A.A. Rahman, 1999: Adaptation to climate change in Bangladesh: future outlook. In: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change for Bangladesh [Huq, S., M. Asaduzzaman, Z. Karim, and F. Mahtab (eds.)]. J. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 125143. 3.) Removal of barriers to international trade; it is argued that improving market conditions, reducing the exploitation of marginal land, accelerating the transfer of technology, and contributing to overall economic growth will promote both sustainability and adaptive capacity (Goklany, 1995) Goklany, I.M., 1995: Strategies to enhance adaptability: technological change, sustainable growth and free trade. Climatic Change, 30, 427449. 4.) Effective global economic participation. Benefits go beyond direct financial gain and include technology transfers, technical and managerial skills transfers, and other skills transfers
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associated with the learning and doing process (Ebohon et al., 1997) Ebohon, O.J., B.G. Field, and R. Ford, 1997: Institutional deficiencies and capacity building constraints: the dilemma for environmentally sustainable development in Africa. International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 4(3), 204213. 5.) Through information sharing, climate satellites solve. Mitigation economic benefits fail. 1.) GDP effects unproven 2.) Life outweighs 3.) Germanys program is a failure economically: According to Hendriks of the Department of Global Change Research Hence, although Germanys promotion of renewable energies is commonly portrayed in the media as setting a shining example in providing a harvest for the world (The Guardian, 2007), we would instead regard the countrys experience as a cautionary tale of massively expensive environmental and energy policy that is devoid of economic and environmental benefits. As other European
governments emulate Germany by ramping up their promotion of renewables, policy makers should scrutinize the logic of supporting energy sources that cannot compete on the market in the absence of government assistance.

Hendriks, I.E., C.M. Duarte, and M. Alvarez. "Economic Impacts from the Promotion of Renewable Energy Technologies: The German Experience." Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 86.2 (2009): 164. Science Direct. Elsevier, 24 Nov. 2009. Web. 19 July 2012. <linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/articleSelectSinglePerm?Redirect=http://www.sciencedirect.c om/science/article/pii/S027277140900537X>. Department of Global Change Research. IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Instituto Mediterrneo de Estudios Avanzados, C/Miquel Marqus 21, 07190 Esporles (Mallorca), Spain 4.) Net Job loss: According to Richard Marsh, Research Director of Verso 5.) Economics The Verso study finds that after the annual diversion of some 330 million British pounds from the rest of the U.K. economy, the result has been the destruction of 3.7 jobs for every green job created."
Richard Marsh, Research Director of Verso Economics. Tom Miers, Scottish Public Policy Analyst. "Worth The Candle?: The Economic Impact of Renewable Energy Policy in Scotland and the UK." March 2011. (http://www.versoeconomics.com/verso-0311B.pdf)

Synthetic Trees wont work

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Pro Blocks Adaptation Good

Yuri/John Shane & Michaels Lab

1.) A lot of infrastructure would be required for this. According to The Royal Society, a Fellowship of the world's most eminent scientists and the oldest scientific academy in continuous existence, (2009) In order to keep the CO2 levels at 450 ppm would require a removal of 650 billion tons of carbon from the atmosphere by 2100. The Royal Society estimates that the infrastructure required to achieve this will be "as large, or larger than, [the infrastructure] of the current fossil fuel extraction."

2.) Too expensive. According to James Hansen, NASA, 2009 James Hansen estimates that in order for 50 ppm of CO2 removal, the cost would be in the range of $20 trillion.
3.) utilizes fossil fuels Adaptation Cheap
Bosello, Francesco, Carlo Carraro, and Enrica De Cian. Climate Policy and the Optimal Balance between Mitigation, Adaptation and Unavoided Damage. Vol. 1. N.p.: Climate Change Economics, 2010. Print. Iss. 2. 1.) Globally, adaptation can achieve a damage reduction of roughly US$ 35 trillion at the cost of US$ 3 trillion, within the period 2000-2200 using a 3% discount rate. Bosello, Francesco, Carlo Carraro, and Enrica De Cian. Climate Policy and the Optimal Balance between Mitigation, Adaptation and Unavoided Damage. Vol. 1. N.p.: Climate Change Economics, 2010. Print. Iss. 2. 2.) Optimal adaptation alone could reduce residual damages up to 55% in 2100 averting about US$ 8 trillion damages (from 4% to 1.5% of GWP). Optimal mitigation alone would lower damage up to 20%, avoiding about US$ 3 trillion worth of damages (from 4% to 3% of GWP). Parry, Martin, Nigel Arnell, and Pam Berry. "Assessing the Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change." Iied.org. Imperial College London, n.d. Web. 19 July 2012. <Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change>. 3.) The UNFCC study analytically cost out structural measures like the expansion of water supply systems, and found out it will often be cheaper to apply soft adaptation options. Measures to use water more efficiently, for example, may obviate the need for expensive new infrastructure.

Mitigation Not Cheap

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Bosello, Francesco, Carlo Carraro, and Enrica De Cian. Climate Policy and the Optimal Balance between Mitigation, Adaptation and Unavoided Damage. Vol. 1. N.p.: Climate Change Economics, 2010. Print. Iss. 2. 1.0 Mitigation has to start well in advance compared to adaptation. This occurs for two reasons. First, mitigation takes more time to become effective because it works against the carbon cycle inertia. Therefore, to enjoy mitigation benefits within the century, actions need to start immediately. Second, emission reduction is achieved mostly through innovation. This option needs large upfront investments, which pay off only in the long-term. "Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Reducing Emissions and Stabilizing the Climate." UN News Center. UN, n.d. Web. 19 July 2012. <http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/climatechange/mitigation.shtml>. 2 Any comprehensive solution to climate change will stabilize concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a safe level, a goal defined as the central objective of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. (FRAMEWORK) But this will involve considerable costs. The estimates of global investment requirements for mitigation vary widely, depending, in part, on how stringent the stabilization target is.

"Climate Change - US$1 Trillion Investment Needed Yearly." Nation.com. The Nation, 2 Sept. 2009. Web. 19 July 2012. <http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/09/02/business/business_30111253.php>. 3 The global energy system needs investment of at least US$1 trillion per year during the coming decades to mitigate and adapt to the impact from climate change

Nelson, Julie, Frank Ackerman, Neva Goodwin, and Kristen Sheeran. "How Costly Is Climate Change Mitigation?" N.p., 11 Mar. 2008. Web. 19 July 2012. <http://www.e3network.org/papers/HowCostlyMitigation2008.pdf> 4. The net costs of climate change mitigation policy are estimated, but the welfare benefits from the mitigation are not. Meanwhile, the framing of climate change as involving only marginal price changes within an otherwise unchanged economy ignores the depth of the problem.

A2 Ocean Acidification
Hendriks, I.E., C.M. Duarte, and M. lvarez. "Vulnerability of Marine Biodiversity to Ocean Acidification: A Meta-analysis." Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 86.2 (2010): 164. Science Direct. Elsevier, 24 Nov. 2009. Web. 19 July 2012. <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027277140900537X>. Department of Global Change Research. IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Instituto Mediterrneo de Estudios Avanzados, C/Miquel Marqus 21, 07190 Esporles (Mallorca), Spain

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1.)

Yuri/John Shane & Michaels Lab

[Not that bad] In summary, our analysis shows that marine biota is more resistant to ocean acidification than suggested by pessimistic predictions identifying ocean acidification as a major threat to marine biodiversity ( [Kleypas et al., 1999], [Orr et al., 2005], [Raven, 2005], [Sponberg, 2007] and [Zondervan et al., 2001]), which may not be the widespread problem conjured into the 21st century. Effects are likely to be minor along the range ofpCO2 predicted for the 21st century, and feedbacks between positive responses of autotrophs and pH may further buffer the impacts.

Hofmann GE, Smith JE, Johnson KS, Send U, Levin LA, et al. (2011) High-Frequency Dynamics of Ocean pH: A Multi-Ecosystem Comparison.
2.)

[more neutral not acidic] According to Hofmann of the Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California Santa Barbara In reality, its quite the opposite. The increase in CO2 is making the ocean, not more corrosive, but more neutral. Since both alkalinity and acidity corrode things, the truth is that rainwater (or more CO2) will make the ocean slightly less corrosive, by marginally neutralizing its slight alkalinity. That is the problem with the term acidify, and it is why I use and insist on the more accurate term neutralize. Using acidify, is both alarmist and incorrect. The ocean is not getting acidified by additional CO2. It is getting neutralized by additional CO2.

Eschenbach, Willis. "The Ocean Is Not Getting Acidified." Watts Up With That? 27 Dec. 2011. Web. <http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/27/the-ocean-is-not-getting-acidified/>. [Continued] The ocean will adapt, some creatures ranges will change a bit, some species will be slightly advantaged and others slightly disadvantaged. But CO2 has been high before this. Overall, making the ocean slightly more neutral will likely be beneficial to life, which doesnt like alkalinity but doesnt mind acidity at all.

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