Probability Distribution

A probability distribution for a particular random variable is a function or table of values that maps the outcomes in the sample space to the probabilities of those outcomes. For example, in an experiment of tossing a coin twice, the sample space is {HH, HT, TH, TT}. Here, the random variable, X , which represents the number of tails when a coin is tossed twice, takes the values 0, 1 and 2. The probability distribution for this experiment is given in table form:

Probability distributions are of two types: 1. Discrete Probability Distribution 2. Continuous Probability Distribution or Probability Density Function A discrete probability distribution is one which lists the probabilities of random values with integer type or countable values. [The binomial probability distribution is an example of a discrete probability distribution.] A continuous probability distribution ( or probability density function) is one which lists the probabilities of random variables with values within a range and is continuous. [The normal probability distribution is an example of a continuous probability distribution. There are others, which are discussed in more advanced classes.] Example: Suppose you take a multiple-choice test with five questions, where each question has four choices, and you guess randomly on each question. Find the probability distribution for the number of correct answers. For each problem, there are four choices and only one correct choice. So, the probability of getting a correct answer is 1/4 and probability of getting an incorrect answer is 3/4.

Let the random variable X be the number of correct answers. It can take the values 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. This is an example of a binomial probability distribution , where n = 5, p = 1/4 and q = 3/4. Find P(X = 0). Here, all five guesses are incorrect. The probability of getting zero correct answers is:

Find P(X = 1). Here, one guess is correct and the other four guesses are incorrect. The probability of getting one only correct answer is:

(Note that we had to use combinations here. There is only one way to get zero questions correct, but 5 different ways to get exactly one question correct. There are exactly two questions correct.) different ways to get

Similarly, find the remaining probabilities and make the table of probability distribution.

Probability Distributions

Random Variables
A variable whose value depends upon a chance experiment is called a random variable. Suppose that a person is asked who that person is closest to: their mother or their father. The random variable of this experiment is the boolean variable whose possibilities are {Mother, Father} A continuous random variable is a variable whose possible outcomes are part of a continuous data set. Examples the random variable that represents the height of the next person who walks in the room is a continuous random variable while the random variable that represents the number rolled on a six sided die is not a continuous random variable. A random variable that is not continuous is called a discreet random variable.

Probability Distributions
Example Suppose we toss two dice. We will make a table of the probabilities for the sum of the dice. The possibilities are

2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12.

Probability Distribution Table

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 x P(x) 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36

Exercise Suppose that you buy a raffle ticket for $5. If 1,000 tickets are sold and there are 10 third place winners of $25, three second place winners of $100 and1 grand prize winner of $2,000, construct a probability distribution table. Do not forget that if you have the $25 ticket, you will have won $20.

Expected Value: (Mean)

Example Insurance We when we buy insurance in black jack we lose the insurance bet if the dealer does not have black jack and win twice the bet if the dealer does have black jack. Suppose you have $20 wagered and that you have a king and a 9 and the dealer has an ace. Should you buy insurance for $10?

Solution: We construct a probability distribution table

P(x)

-10 34/49 20 15/49

(There are 49 cards that haven't been seen and 15 are 10JKQ and the other 34 are non tens.) We define the

expected value = xP(x)

We calculate:

-10(34/49) + 20(15/49) = -40/49

Hence the expected value is negative so that we should not buy insurance. What if I am playing with my wife. My cards are 2 and a 6 and my wife's are 7 and 4. Should I buy insurance? We have: x P(x)

-10 31/47 20 16/47

We calculate:

-10(31/47) + 20(16/47) = 10/47 = 0.21

Hence my expected value is positive so that I should buy insurance.

Standard Deviation
We compute the standard deviation for a probability distribution function the same way that we compute the standard deviation for a sample, except that after squaring x - , we multiply by P(x). Also we do not need to divide by n - 1. Consider the second insurance example:

P(x) x - x

(x - x )2

-10 31/47 -10.21 104 20 16/47 19.79 392

Hence the variance is

104(31/47) + 392(16/47) = 202

and the standard deviation is the square root, that is 14.2.

Combining Distributions If we have two distributions with independent random variables x and y and if a and b are constants then if L = a + bx then 1. L = a + b 2. L2 = b22 3. L = |b| 4. W = ax + by 5. W2 = a22 + b22 6. and W = ax + by

Example Gamblers who played both black jack and craps were studied and it was found that the average amount of black playing per weekend was 7 hours with a standard deviation of 3 hours. The average amount of craps play was 4 hour with a standard deviation of 2 hours. A. What is the mean and standard deviation for the total amount of gaming?

Solution Here a and b are 1 and 1. The mean is just

7 + 4 = 11
and the standard deviation is just

B. If each player spends about $100 per hour on black jack and $200 per hour on craps, what will be the mean and standard deviation for the amount of money that the casino wins per person?

Solution Here a and b are 100 and 200. the mean is

100(7) + 200(4) = 1,500

and the standard deviation is

C. If the players spend $150 on the hotel, find the mean and standard deviation of the total amount of money that the players spend. Here

L = 150 + x
where x is the result from part B. Hence the mean is

150 + 1500 = 1,650

and the standard deviation is the same as part B since the coefficient is 1.

The Binomial Distribution

There is a type of distribution that occurs so frequently that it has a special name. We call a distribution a binomial distribution if all of the following are true 1. There are a fixed number of trials, n, which are all independent. 2. The outcomes are Boolean, such as True or False, yes or no, success or failure. 3. The probability of success is the same for each trial.

For a binomial distribution with n trials with the probability of success p and failure q, we have

P(r successes) = Cn,r pr qn-r

Example Suppose that each time you take a free throw shot, you have a 25% chance of making it. If you take 15 shots, A. What is the probability of making exactly 5 of them. Solution We have n = 15 Compute r = 5 p = .25 q = .75

C15,5 .255 .7510 = 0.165

There is a 16.5 percent chance of making exactly 5 shots.

B. What is the probability of making fewer than 3 shots?

Solution The possible outcomes that will make this happen are 2 shots, 1 shot, and 0 shots. Since these are mutually exclusive, we can add these probabilities.

C15,2 .252 .7513 + C15,1 .251 .7514 + C15,0 .250 .7515 = .156 + .067 + .013 = 0.236
There is a 24 percent chance of sinking fewer than 3 shots.