Issue-Based Work Planning and Hypothesis Problem Solving

INTRO

Issues, rather than tasks or analysis, drive the process

Problem Definition

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Hypothesis Generation

Defining Analysis and Identifying Data Sources

INTRO

An Issue-Based Work Planning is developed in five Steps

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DEFINE THE PROBLEM

The Situation and Complication set the stage for the Overriding Question

Situation

...

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But ...

Overriding Question

... ?

DEVELOP AN ISSUE TREE

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Example

Starting from the overriding question, develop an issue tree

First Level Issue Example

Brainstorm first level issues and chart them on an issue tree

Overriding Question Can US Utility keep control of its future into the medium term?

Can US Utility salvage its share price?

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Issues and sub-issues should Relate directly to the overriding question Fall within the scope of the overriding question Be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (MECE) Are there ways of avoiding being taken over if share price cannot be salvaged?

DEVELOP AN ISSUE TREE

There are three generic types of issue trees that could be constructed

Description Starts with problem definition and divides it into components

Elements in splits Actions, assertions, questions, categories

When to Use Early on, when you don't know much

Deductive

What/how

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Hypothesis driven

Postulates a hypothesis and develops a necessary and sufficient rationale to validate or disprove it

Reasons/questions

At any point in the process

Yes

?
No

Issue Map

Phrases key issues so that they can be answered yes or no, and sequence them in a logical order showing the depending action

Questions

Use issue maps to frame options, usually later in the process

DEVELOP AN ISSUE TREE

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Example

Repeat the exercise to brainstorm second level issues

Second Level Issues First Level Issue Can US Utility beat the cost base agreed with the Regulator?

Can US Utility salvage its share price?

Overriding Question

Can US Utility divest and refocus?

Can US Utility grow organically? Can US Utility This Can is only a partial view of the full presentation. For further details and download US Utility keep growth control of its future into please goto: create www.straticx.com/store.html options?

the medium term?

Can US Utility grow by acquisition?

Can US Utility avoid being taken over?

Can US Utility build scale quickly?

DEVELOP AN ISSUE TREE

2
Example

Use simple hypotheses to prune the issue tree

Second Level Issues
Can it beat the cost base it has agreed with the regulator? Can it divest and refocus?

First Level Hypotheses - Impact on companys share price would be:

Medium (regulator would respond after a delay)

First Level Issues Can US Utility salvage its share price?

Medium (the company could divest several divisions)

Large (Investors seek a credible US This is only a partial view of the full presentation. For further details create growth player in this sector) and download options? Can it grow by please goto: www.straticx.com/store.html acquisition? Are there targets to pursue? Can it build scale quickly? Low (The company has shown low ability to handle acquisitions) Negative (Research warns of overpayment for targets; few opportunities) Medium (The company has shown some ability to grow organically) Medium (The industry is predicted to find a stable equilibrium)

Can US Utility keep control of its future into the medium term?

Can US Utility

Can it convince investors?

Can US Utility avoid being taken over?

Can it secure a place in the postconsolidation industry line-up?

DEVELOP AN ISSUE TREE

Think about issue analysis as drilling for oil Impact of Pruning

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Average effort Heavy effort Optimal effort

Surface knowledge
Fails to capture the deeper insights

Time consuming
Excess knowledge

Economy of knowledge
Expertise

Blind alleys
Much wasted effort

Highest return on investment

GENERATE HYPOTHESES

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Example

Good hypotheses measure up against the criteria

Third Level Issue Hypothesis Is This Better? Does it address a single issue

Can the Utility increase operational efficiency?

The company can increase operational efficiency by 10% by improving its purchasing practices

Is this an educated guess at the answer, or conclusion

Is it testable: Can we prove or disprove it?

Is it useful: Will it help solve the problem?

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the angles?

DEFINE ANALYSES AND DATA SOURCES

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Example

Define the specific analysis needed to prove or disprove the hypothesis analysis should seek to answer a very specific question
Third Level Issue
Specific Questions for Analysis

Can the Utility increase operational efficiency?

Hypothesis

The company can increase operational efficiency by 10% by improving its purchasing practices

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What trends in operational efficiency are already present? What is the purchasing spend today? What have been the recent trends in this? What opportunities do e-auctions offer? Would purchasing changes impact on quality? Could new suppliers integrate with the other key organisational initiative?

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DEFINE ANALYSES AND DATA SOURCES

4
Example

Data collection matrix and data collection grid - examples

Planning: Example of data collection grid

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This is only a partial view of the full presentation. For further details and download please goto: www.straticx.com/store.html

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