9/26/13

Patrick Clawson | Sanctions Might Have Brought Rouhani to The Table, But They Won't Keep Him There | Foreign Affairs

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TalkIsCheap
SanctionsMightHaveBroughtRouhanitoTheTable,ButTheyWon'tKeepHim There
ByPatrickClawson
SEPTEMB ER 24, 2013

AnIranianZelzalmissileislaunchedduringatestatanunknownlocationincentralIran,September27,2009.(AliShayegan/Courtesy Reuters)

n 2012, I argued that sanctions against Iran could succeed at bringingTehranbacktothenegotiatingtablebutthattheywere not a strategy in and of themselves. Occasional (and usually fruitless)talks,afterall,wouldbenosubstituteforoverallstabilityand political normalization. A more successful longterm U.S. policy, I wrote,shouldbegearedtowardbuildingamoredemocraticIran.That remains true today. As Iranian President Hassan Rouhani mounts his charmoffensiveattheUNGeneralAssembly,itisworthremembering thatsanctionsalonedidnotbringaboutthenewIranianattitude.Nor willtheybeenoughtoguaranteeIranscooperationinthefuture.

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Patrick Clawson | Sanctions Might Have Brought Rouhani to The Table, But They Won't Keep Him There | Foreign Affairs

Overthelasttwoyears,theU.S.andEUsanctionsregimeshavescoredimpressive results, mostly thanks to broad international support for, and compliance with, them.Somecountries,suchasCanada,signedontotighttraderestrictions.Others, suchasIndia,significantlycurtailedtheirpurchasesofIranianoilandrestrictedwhat Iran could do with the payments for that oil. All told, Irans useable oil export revenuewasaroundtwothirdslessthanitwouldotherwisehavebeenthisyear.At about $30$35 billion a year, Irans useable oil revenue now stands at a level last seenadecadeago.Thathascompelledthegovernmenttodipintoreservesandscale back populist initiatives, such as the payments Iranians get each month to compensate for some phasedout subsidies for energy and other goods. That the country now appears ready to bargain reinforces the old Iranian adage that the IslamicRepublicnevergivesintopressureitonlygivesintogreatpressure. Thesanctions,however,arenotsolelyresponsibleforIranschangeinattitude.Just asimportanthasbeentheincreasingangeroftheIranianpeopleatthedeteriorating economicsituationthere,causedatleastasmuchbytheincoherentpopulistpolicies oftheAhmadinejadgovernmentasbythesanctions.Aclevererregimecouldhave avoidedthebruntofIraniananger,turningitagainsttheUnitedStates.ButTehran has not been able to convince the population that it should be enraged at anyone otherthanIran'sownhardliners,withtheirunhelpfuleconomicpoliciesandnuclear stance.Thesedays,Iraniansfirstpriorityisfixingtheeconomy.Andinthatregard, Iranianshaveshownthattheyarenotwillingtocontinuepayingtheheavyprice theforegoneoilrevenue,theinflation,theunemploymentfortheoncevaunted nuclearprogram.Insecondplaceisrestoringrelationswiththeoutsideworld,which meansreversingisolationistpoliciessuchasrestrictionsontheInternetandsatellite television.EvenSupremeLeaderAliKhamenei,alongtimeproponentofresistance ratherthancompromise,recentlyspokeabouttheneedfor"heroicflexibility." Last, but an even more important cause of Irans new approach, has been the strengtheningofdemocracyinIran.Junespresidentialelectionwasbynomeans totally fair. But, unlike in 2009, the votes were actually counted. Results were announcedmanyhours,notonehour,afterpollsclosed.Andratherthananointing awinner,ashedidin2009,Khameneididnothingtostopfratricidalcompetition among the three main conservative candidates. When he appealed to even those IraniansopposedtotheIslamicRepublictocomeouttovote(insteadofhisusual trumpeting of voting being a show of support for the regime), people got the message:Thistime,Khameneiwouldlivewiththepeopleschoicefromamonghis vetted candidates. A freer election allowed for more serious debate about the countrys foreign and security policies, which had previously been taboo. The Iranian people got to hear for themselves how inflexible and unreasonable Irans previousnuclearnegotiator,SaeedJalili,hadbeen.Alltheothercandidatesroundly attackedhispositionsonnuclearnegotiations. TheWesthadlongwantedtoseeaseriousdebateinsideIranaboutthe countrys nuclear program. That debate finally happened. To be sure, sanctionsraiseddiscontentabouttheimpactofthenuclearprogram,but thatdidnottranslateintoIranianpolicyreformsuntilthepeoplewere givenachancetovoicetheirviews.Andthatwouldnothavehappened ifKhameneihadnotdecidedtoletthiselectionplayoutashedid.The endresultwasthatthepeoplegaveastrongendorsementtoRouhani, the most moderate voice. The lesson for the West is that the more democraticandfreeIrangets,thebettertheprospectsforresolvingthe nuclearimpasse.Inotherwords,supportingfreedominIranisnotonly the morally correct thing to do, it is also the best way to get Iran to abandonitsnuclearambitions.

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Patrick Clawson | Sanctions Might Have Brought Rouhani to The Table, But They Won't Keep Him There | Foreign Affairs

Rouhaniisnoreformer.Heisamanofthesystem,whichiswhyhewasallowedto run in the first place. He surely wants a deal, but there has been no clear public indicationofthetermstowhichIranmightagree.Presumably,though,Iranandthe West already have a pretty good idea of what an agreement would entail on the Iranianside:acceptingrestrictionsonenrichment,shippingmostifnotallenriched uraniumoutofthecountry,greatertransparency,andrespondingtoInternational AtomicEnergyAgencyqueriesaboutpastactivities. However,thatisonlyonehalfofthedeal.TheotherhalfiswhattheWestgivesin return specifically, in the form of sanctions relief. So far, the West, the United Statesinparticular,hasbeenlessthanforthcomingonthat.Iraniansshouldbewary: In general, the United States has been slow to ease sanctions. Whether in Libya, Myanmar(alsocalledBurma),orVietnam,theliftingofsanctionsoncetheywerein place took many more years than those governments might have expected. It is soberingthattheJacksonVanikrestrictionsthatwereplacedontheSovietUnionin 1974 because of Moscows limits on Jewish emigration were not lifted until 2012, more than 20 years after those emigration limits and the Soviet government ceasedtoexist. Before ending sanctions, the United States usually wants more than just a reassurancethatadealwillbeimplemented.Itwantsclearevidencethatanydeal willbesustained,anditwantsprogressonotherbilateraldiscussions,too.InIrans case, this means that Washington would want Tehran to end its support for terrorismanditsegregioushumanrightsviolations.Allthatistosaythatwhatever sanctionsrelieftheUnitedStatesmightofferafternucleardiscussionsbeginwillbe quitelimited.NorisitclearthattheEuropeanUnionwillcometotherescue:its sanctionscanonlyberevokedbyaunanimousdecisionof28governments. The United States might get around the problem by offering relief to the Iranian people even while maintaining tight restrictions on the Iranian government. Already,Washingtonhasbeensimultaneouslytighteningsanctionsongovernment linked institutions while easing rules on citizens, for instance, when it comes to athletic competitions, donations for charity work in Iran, and sales to Iranians of mobile phones and related software. Following a deal, Washington could do even more to end the restrictions that pinch Iranian citizens and private businesses, perhaps by easing visa processing and permitting trade in consumer goods with genuinelyprivatefirms.TheUnitedStatesbesthopeforbetterrelationswithIranis betterrelationswiththeIranianpeople,andtheUnitedStatesshouldfocusonwhat theyneedandwant.Providingmodestsanctionsreliefforthepeopleisonlyasmall steptowardsupportingdemocracy,buthalfaloafisbetterthannone.

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Patrick Clawson | Sanctions Might Have Brought Rouhani to The Table, But They Won't Keep Him There | Foreign Affairs

Tojudgetheeffectivenessof WesternsanctionsagainstIran, itisimportanttofirstestablish theirpurpose.U.S.officials andtheirEuropean counterpartshavesetouta numberofdifferentgoalsfor thesanctionsregime,including deterringtheproliferationof nucleartechnologyacross...

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Best Community Charles Frith
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Patrick Clawson is a known Zionist warmonger who has advocated false flag attacks in Iran to drag the US into yet another needless war. He's a psychopath and his words are cheap to buy. http://charlesfrith.blogspot.c...

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