Crlucal 1hlnklng, Sampllng

1hlnklng Crlucally abouL uaLa

Collecung Sample uaLa

SLausucal 1hlnklng, uaLa, Crlucal
1hlnklng, Sampllng
SLausucal 1hlnklng
uaLa
1hlnklng Crlucally abouL uaLa
Collecung Sample uaLa

Crlucal 1hlnklng
llgures don'L lle, Llars gure" -Mark 1waln
38.6 of all sLausucs are made up on Lhe spoL"
-unknown

Crlucal 1hlnklng
SLausucal ablllLy requlres Lralned common
sense ln addluon Lo maLhemaucal experuse.
WanL Lo Lraln skllls ln !"#$%&%$'"( lnformauon
based on daLa
Crlucal 1hlnklng
now dlscuss ways ln whlch common sense ls
used when Lhlnklng )%!')*++, abouL daLa and
sLausucs.
We wlll Lhlnk carefully abouL conLexL, source,
meLhod, concluslons, pracucal lmpllcauons.
WanL Lo avold belng duped by poor, blased or
deceluul daLa, we wanL Lo uphold hlgh eLhlcal
sLandards ln our professlonal careers.
Crlucal 1hlnklng
Ways SLausucs are Mlsused:
Lvll lnLenL on Lhe parL of dlshonesL people.
unlnLenuonal errors on Lhe parL of people who
don'L know any beuer.
Learn Lo dlsungulsh beLween sLausucal
concluslons llkely Lo be valld and Lhose LhaL
are serlously awed
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
Mlsuse of Craphs
Craphs are lmporLanL for organlzlng and
summarlzlng daLa, buL can be used ln mlsleadlng
ways.
Lxample:
ln March 2003, Cnn/uSA Lelephone poll of 909 adulLs ln Lhe
uS was conducLed
1hey wanLed Lo deLermlne lf uemocraLs or 8epubllcans or
lndependenLs had slgnlcanLly dlerenL oplnlons on wheLher
Lhe llorlda SLaLe CourL was rlghL Lo order 1errl Schlavo's
feedlng Lube Lo be removed.
$-*.&+$ )0"'"1$23
Cnn/uSA daLa was orlglnally presenLed ln Lhe
followlng graph:
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
Democrat Republican Independent
%

I
n

A
g
r
e
e
m
e
n
t

w
i
t
h

C
o
u
r
t

Party Affiliation
CNN/Gallup Poll - Version 1
$-*.&+$ )0"'"1$23
Aer belng crluclzed, Lhe graph was modled:
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Democrat Republican Independent
%

I
n

A
g
r
e
e
m
e
n
t

w
i
t
h

C
o
u
r
t

Party Affiliation
CNN/Gallup Poll - Version 2
$-*.&+$ )0"'"1$23
Why was Lhe orlglnal crluclzed?
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
%

I
n

A
g
r
e
e
m
e
n
t

w
i
t
h

C
o
u
r
t

Party Affiliation
CNN/Gallup Poll - Version 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
%

I
n

A
g
r
e
e
m
e
n
t

w
i
t
h

C
o
u
r
t

Party Affiliation
CNN/Gallup Poll - Version 2
$-*.&+$ )0"'"1$23
Cnn used a Mlsleadlng graph:
When ploued wlLh error esumaLes (7) and on a
verucal axls sLarung aL 0, Lhe Lrue naLure of Lhe
resulLs becomes clear:
1he ma[orlLy of all 3 groups agreed wlLh CourL's
declslon, and Lhe gap beLween Lhe uemocraLs on one
hand and Lhe 8epubllcans and lndependenLs on Lhe
oLher was wlLhln Lhe poll's error of margln.
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
8ad Samples
Samples LhaL are blased and noL
represenLauve of Lhe populauon.
A volunLary response sample (or self-selecLed
sample) ln whlch Lhe respondenLs declde for
Lhemselves wheLher Lo be lncluded.
1yplcally, respondenLs wlLh uncharacLerlsucally sLrong
oplnlons are Lhe ones Lo respond.
Lxamples: Web-based anonymous revlews (8M !)
Crlucal 1hlnklng
Correlauon and CausallLy
AnoLher way Lo mlslnLerpreL sLausucal daLa ls
Lo conclude LhaL a correlauon lmplles
causauon.
40%%$+*'0" *"2 4*15*+!#, 6-*.&+$5
rovlde an alLernaLe or correcL concluslon ln
each example.
College CraduaLes Llve Longer: 8ased on a sLudy
showlng LhaL college graduaLes Lend Lo llve longer
Lhan Lhose who do noL graduaLe from college, a
researcher concludes LhaL sLudylng causes people
Lo llve longer.
40%%$+*'0" *"2 4*15*+!#, 6-*.&+$5
C & C Lxamples: rovlde an alLernaLe or
correcL concluslon ln each example.
Selllng Songs: uaLa publlshed ln uSA 1oday were
used Lo show LhaL Lhere ls a correlauon beLween
Lhe number of umes songs are played on radlo
sLauons and Lhe numbers of umes Lhe songs are
purchased. Concluslon: lncreaslng Lhe umes LhaL
songs are played on radlo sLauons causes sales Lo
lncrease.
40%%$+*'0" *"2 4*15*+!#, 6-*.&+$5
C & C Lxamples: rovlde an alLernaLe or
correcL concluslon ln each example.
8aclal rollng? A sLudy showed LhaL ln Crange
CounLy, more speedlng uckeLs were lssued Lo
mlnorlues Lhan Lo whlLes. Concluslon: ln Crange
CounLy, mlnorlues speed more Lhan whlLes.
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
lnaccuraLe 8eporL 8esulLs
lL ls beuer Lo collecL daLa yourself lnsLead of
asklng sub[ecLs Lo do so.
voung 8ehavlor: When 1002 ellglble voLers were
surveyed, 70 of Lhem sald LhaL Lhey had voLed ln
a recenL presldenual elecuon (based on daLa from
lC8 8esearch Croup). Powever, voung records
show LhaL only 61 of ellglble voLers acLually dld
voLe.
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
Small Samples
Concluslons should noL be based on samples
LhaL are far Loo small.
1he Chlldren's uefense lund publlshed 47!+2%$"
81# 09 :)700+ !" ;.$%!)*, ln whlch lL was reporLed
LhaL among secondary school sLudenLs suspended
ln one reglon, 67 were suspended aL leasL Lhree
umes. 8uL LhaL gure ls based on a sample of only
#7%$$ sLudenLs! Medla reporLs falled Lo menuon
LhaL Lhls sample slze was so small.
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
Mlsuse of ercenLages
SLudles oen clLe mlsleadlng or unclear
percenLages. Also, 100 of a quanuLy ls all of lL,
so LhaL references made Lo percenLages ln excess
of 100 are oen un[usued.
ln referrlng Lo losL baggage, ConunenLal Alrllnes ran
ads clalmlng LhaL Lhls was an area where we've
already lmproved 100 ln Lhe lasL slx monLhs." ln an
edlLorlal crluclzlng Lhls sLausuc, Lhe new ?ork 1lmes
correcLly lnLerpreLed Lhe 100 lmprovemenL Lo mean
LhaL no baggage ls now belng losL-an
accompllshmenL noL yeL en[oyed by ConunenLal
Alrllnes.
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
Loaded Cuesuons
lf a quesuon ls noL worded carefully, resulLs of
survey mlsleadlng
ln <7$ :1&$%&0++5#$%5, uavld W. Moore descrlbes an
experlmenL ln whlch dlerenL sub[ecLs were asked lf
Lhey agree wlLh Lhe followlng sLaLemenLs:
1oo llule money ls belng spenL on welfare.
1oo llule money ls belng spenL on asslsLance Lo Lhe poor.
Lven Lhough lL ls Lhe poor who recelve welfare, only
19 agreed when Lhe word welfare" was used, buL
63 agreed wlLh asslsLance Lo Lhe poor."
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
Crder of Cuesuons
A survey quesuon LhaL ls unlnLenuonally loaded by Lhe
order ln whlch lLems belng consldered are presenLed
1hese quesuons are from a poll conducLed ln Cermany:
Would you say LhaL Lramc conLrlbuLes more or less Lo alr polluuon
Lhan lndusLry?
Would you say LhaL lndusLry conLrlbuLes more or less Lo alr
polluuon Lhan Lramc?
When Lramc was presenLed rsL, 43 blamed Lramc and
27 blamed lndusLry,
when lndusLry was presenLed rsL, 24 blamed Lramc and
37 blamed lndusLry.
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
nonresponse
When someone refuses Lo respond Lo survey
or ls unavallable
ln =!$5> ?*." =!$5> *"2 :#*'5')5, auLhor Mlchael
Wheeler makes Lhls very lmporLanL observauon:
eople who refuse Lo Lalk Lo pollsLers are llkely Lo be
dlerenL from Lhose who do noL. Some may be fearful of
sLrangers and oLhers [ealous of Lhelr prlvacy, buL Lhelr
refusal Lo Lalk demonsLraLes LhaL Lhelr vlew of Lhe world
around Lhem ls markedly dlerenL from LhaL of Lhose
people who wlll leL poll-Lakers lnLo Lhelr homes.
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
Mlsslng uaLa
Mlsslng daLa can dramaucally aecL resulLs.
Someumes random, someumes sysLemauc.
8andom: sub[ecL drop ouL of a sLudy due Lo
unrelaLed facLors
u.S. Census suers from mlsslng people who are
oen homeless
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
Self-lnLeresL SLudy
arues wlLh lnLeresL promoung sponsored
sLudles.
Concern ln recenL years ls Lhe pracuce of
pharmaceuucal companles paylng docLors who
conducL cllnlcal experlmenLs and reporL Lhelr
resulLs ln presuglous [ournals, such as Lhe @01%"*+
09 #7$ ;.$%!)*" A$2!)*+ ;550)!*'0".
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
reclse numbers
numbers LhaL are overly preclse are suspecL,
or lncorrecLly reporLed
1here are now 103,213,027 households ln Lhe
unlLed SLaLes." 8ecause LhaL gure ls very preclse,
many people lncorrecLly assume LhaL lL ls also
accuraLe.
ln Lhls case, LhaL number ls an esumaLe, and lL
would be beuer Lo sLaLe LhaL Lhe number of
households ls abouL 103 mllllon.
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
uellberaLe ulsLoruons
A.k.A., made up daLa
ln Lhe book <*!"#$2 <%1#7, CynLhla Crossen clLes an
example ln whlch Lhe magazlne 40%&0%*#$ <%*B$+
publlshed resulLs showlng LhaL among car renLal
companles, Avls was Lhe wlnner ln a survey of people
who renL cars.
When PerLz requesLed deLalled lnformauon abouL Lhe
survey, Lhe acLual survey responses dlsappeared"
and Lhe magazlne's survey coordlnaLor reslgned.
PerLz sued Avls (for false adveruslng based on Lhe
survey) and Lhe magazlne, a seulemenL was reached.
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
Confoundlng
Muluple eecLs of facLors cannoL be separaLed ln
sLudy
ln case-conLrol sLudles you Lry Lo acuvely exclude or
conLrol varlables LhaL are suspecLed of lnuenclng Lhe
ouLcome, buL are noL of lnLeresL.
Suppose you wanL Lo sLudy Lhe cause of lung cancer
due Lo coal dusL lnhalauon, and you suspecL LhaL age
ls a confoundlng varlable
1hen each 67 year old cancer pauenL wlll be maLched
wlLh a healLhy 67 year old conLrol" person.
ln some sLudles, Lhls ls lmposslble slnce a conLrol
cannoL be found
Crlucal 1hlnklng:
racuce
ulscrepancy 8eLween 8eporLed and Cbserved
8esulLs: When Parrls lnLeracuve surveyed 1013
adulLs, 91 of Lhem sald LhaL Lhey washed Lhelr
hands aer uslng a publlc resLroom. 8uL when
6336 adulLs were observed, lL was found LhaL 82
acLually dld wash Lhelr hands.
Pow can we explaln Lhe dlscrepancy?
Whlch percenLage ls more llkely Lo accuraLely
lndlcaLe Lhe Lrue raLe aL whlch people wash Lhelr
hands ln a publlc resLroom?
C%*)')$ )0"'"1$2
ChocolaLe PealLh lood: 1he new ?ork 1lmes
publlshed an arucle LhaL lncluded Lhese sLaLemenLs:
AL long lasL, chocolaLe moves Loward lLs rlghuul place ln Lhe
food pyramld, somewhere ln Lhe hlgh-Lone nelghborhood of
red wlne, frulLs and vegeLables, and green Lea. Several sLudles,
reporLed ln Lhe !ournal of nuLrluon, showed LhaL aer eaung
chocolaLe, LesL sub[ecLs had lncreased levels of anuoxldanLs ln
Lhelr blood. ChocolaLe conLalns avonolds, anuoxldanLs LhaL
have been assoclaLed wlLh decreased rlsk of hearL dlsease and
sLroke. Mars lnc., Lhe candy company, and Lhe ChocolaLe
ManufacLurers Assoclauon nanced much of Lhe research."
WhaL ls wrong wlLh Lhls sLudy?
C%*)')$ )0"'"1$2
MoLorcycle PelmeLs: 1he Pawall SLaLe SenaLe
held hearlngs whlle conslderlng a law requlrlng
LhaL moLorcycllsLs wear helmeLs. Some
moLorcycllsLs Lesued LhaL Lhey had been ln
crashes ln whlch helmeLs would noL have been
helpful.
WhaL ls Lhe weakness ln Lhelr Lesumony? (See A
Selecuon of Selecuon Anomalles," by Walner,
almer, and 8radlow ln Chance,vol. 11, no. 2.)
C%*)')$ )0"'"1$2
SluS: ln a leuer Lo Lhe edlLor ln Lhe new ?ork 1lmes,
MooresLown, new !ersey, resldenL !ean Mercer
crluclzed Lhe sLaLemenL LhaL pumng lnfanLs ln Lhe
suplne posluon has decreased deaLhs from
SluS." (SluS refers Lo sudden lnfanL deaLh syndrome,
and Lhe suplne posluon ls lylng on Lhe back wlLh Lhe
face upward.) She suggesLed LhaL Lhls sLaLemenL ls
beuer: edlaLrlclans advlsed Lhe suplne posluon
durlng a ume when Lhe SluS raLe fell."
WhaL ls wrong wlLh saylng LhaL Lhe suplne posluon
decreased deaLhs from SluS?
C%*)')$ )0"'"1$2
A researcher aL Lhe Sloan-keuerlng Cancer
8esearch CenLer was once crluclzed for falslfylng
daLa. Among hls daLa were gures obLalned from
6 groups of mlce, wlLh 20 lndlvldual mlce ln each
group. 1hese values were glven for Lhe
percenLage of successes ln each group: 33, 38,
63, 46, 48, 67.
WhaL's wrong wlLh Lhose values?
SLausucal 1hlnklng, uaLa, Crlucal
1hlnklng, Sampllng
1hlnklng Crlucally abouL uaLa
Collecung Sample uaLa

Collecung Sample uaLa
8ecall:
A populauon conslsLs of all elemenLs whose
characLerlsucs are belng sLudled.
A sample ls a poruon of Lhe populauon selecLed
for sLudy.
1he Lechnlque of collecung lnformauon from a
poruon of Lhe populauon ls called a survey.
A sample LhaL represenLs Lhe characLerlsucs of Lhe
populauon as closely as posslble ls called a
represenLauve sample.
Collecung Sample uaLa
ulscuss ways collecL sample daLa
ulscuss how sample daLa may be
represenLauve
lf sample daLa noL collecLed ln approprlaLe
manner, no sLausucal manlpulauon can
salvage Lhem
1yplcally, some sorL of %*"20. 5*.&+!"( used
Lo obLaln a represenLauve sample
Collecung Sample uaLa:
Source of uaLa
Cbservauonal SLudles observlng and measurlng
speclc characLerlsucs wlLhouL auempung Lo modlfy
Lhe sub[ecLs belng sLudled
A Callup poll surveyed 1018 adulLs by Lelephone, and 22 of
Lhem reporLed LhaL Lhey smoked clgareues wlLhln Lhe pasL
week.
LxperlmenLs apply some LreaLmenL and Lhen observe
lLs eecLs on Lhe sub[ecLs
A sLudy of Lhe eecuveness of echlnacea lnvolved 707 cases
of upper resplraLory LracL lnfecuons. Chlldren wlLh 337 of
Lhe lnfecuons were glven echlnacea, and chlldren wlLh 370
of Lhe lnfecuons were glven placebos
Collecung Sample uaLa:
1ypes of 8andom Sampllng
8andom Sample A sample drawn ln such a
way LhaL $*)7 $+$.$"# of Lhe populauon has
an equal chance of belng selecLed
Slmple 8andom Sample A sample ln whlch *++
5*.&+$5 09 #7$ 5*.$ 5!D$ selecLed from a
populauon have Lhe same chance of belng
selecLed
8
Slmple
8andom
Samples
8andom
Samples
8andom *"2 Slmple Sampllng:
Slmple 8andom Sample
A opulauon of lndlvlduals
AnoLher sample of
slze n=6:
1he proporuon
of M Lo W ls
posslble (1M:
3W)
A posslble sample of
slze n=6:
1he proporuon
of M Lo W ls
posslble (1M:
1W)
8andom buL "0# slmple Sampllng
An !.&055!E+$
sample of slze n=6:
1he proporuon
of M Lo W ls
lmposslble
A opulauon of M&W couples
A posslble sample of
slze n=6:
1he proporuon
of M Lo W ls
posslble (1M:
1W)
!
8andom Sampllng noL posslble.
A opulauon of grouped and slngle lndlvlduals
racuce
8andom versus Slmple 8andom
Sampllng SenaLors Lach of Lhe 30 sLaLes sends Lwo
senaLors Lo Congress, so Lhere are exacLly 100
senaLors. Suppose LhaL we wrlLe Lhe name of each
sLaLe on a separaLe lndex card, Lhen mlx Lhe 30
cards ln a bowl, and Lhen selecL one card.
lf we conslder Lhe Lwo senaLors from Lhe selecLed
sLaLe Lo be a sample, ls Lhls resulL a random
sample? Slmple random sample? Why?
racuce
racuce: 8andom or Slmple 8andom?
harmaclsLs Lyplcally ll prescrlpuons by scooplng
a sample of pllls from a larger baLch LhaL ls ln
sLock. A pharmaclsL Lhoroughly mlxes a large
baLch of LlplLor pllls, Lhen selecLs 30 of Lhem.
uoes Lhls sampllng plan resulL ln a random
sample? Slmple random sample? Lxplaln.
racuce
racuce 8andom versus Slmple 8andom
An educauon experL ls researchlng Leachlng
meLhods and wlshes Lo lnLervlew Leachers from a
parucular school dlsLrlcL. She randomly selecLs Len
schools from Lhe dlsLrlcL and lnLervlews all of Lhe
Leachers aL Lhe selecLed schools.
uoes Lhls sampllng plan resulL ln a random
sample? Slmple random sample? Lxplaln.
racuce
racuce 8andom versus Slmple 8andom
A psychology sLudenL wlshes Lo lnvesugaLe
dlerences ln pollucal oplnlons beLween buslness
ma[ors and pollucal sclence ma[ors aL her college.
She randomly selecLs 100 sLudenLs from Lhe 260
buslness ma[ors and 100 sLudenLs from Lhe 180
pollucal sclence ma[ors.
uoes Lhls sampllng plan resulL ln a random
sample? Slmple random sample? Lxplaln.
Collecung Sample uaLa:
8eplacemenL
A sample may be selecLed wlLh or wlLhouL
replacemenL.
ln sampllng wlLh replacemenL, each ume we
selecL an elemenL from Lhe populauon, we puL
lL back ln Lhe populauon before we selecL Lhe
nexL elemenL.
Sampllng wlLhouL replacemenL occurs when
Lhe selecLed elemenL ls noL replaced ln Lhe
populauon.
8eplacemenL
SelecL and reLurn Lo populauon
1
2 3
4
12 6
7
8
9
10
11
3
8eplacemenL
osslble Lo reselecL same lndlvldual for survey
1
2 3
4
12 6
7
8
9
10
11
3
WlLhouL 8eplacemenL
lndlvldual removed from populauon when selecLed
1
2 3
4
12 6
7
8
9
10
11
3
3
WlLhouL 8eplacemenL
lndlvldual removed from populauon when selecLed
1
2 3
4
12 6
7
8
9
10
11
3
WlLh vs. WlLhouL 8eplacemenL
lf Lhe populauon ls large compared Lo sample
slze, Lhere ls essenually no dlerence.
Collecung Sample uaLa:
SysLemauc Sampllng
SelecL some sLarung polnL and Lhen selecL
every k
Lh
(such as every 30
Lh
) elemenL ln Lhe
populauon
SysLemauc Sampllng
SysLemauc Sampllng: Archaeologlcal ulg
All SlLes SysLemauc Sample
Collecung Sample uaLa:
SLraued Sampllng
Subdlvlde populauon lnLo aL leasL Lwo
dlerenL subgroups (or sLraLa) so LhaL sub[ecLs
wlLhln same subgroup share same
characLerlsucs (such as gender or age
brackeL), Lhen draw sample from each
subgroup (or sLraLum)
SLraued Sampllng
SLarung opulauon
SLraued Sampllng
ulvlde opulauon lnLo SLraLa
SLraued Sampllng
8andomly Sample from SLraLa
Collecung Sample uaLa:
ClusLer Sampllng
llrsL dlvlde Lhe populauon area lnLo secuons
(or clusLers), Lhen randomly selecL some of
Lhose clusLers, and Lhen choose *++ Lhe
members from Lhose selecLed clusLers
ClusLer Sample
clusLers = nelghborhoods
18
9
1
3
7
22
21
24
2
13
20
10
25
23
8
4
12
6
17
16
5
15
14
19
11
City of Bellingham
Neighborhoods
1 = Birchwood
2 = Cornwall Park
3 = Barkley
4 = Columbia
5 = Lettered Streets
6 = Sunnyland
7 = Roosevelt
8 = Alabama Hill
9 = Silver Beach
10 = CBD
11 = York
12 = Puget
13 = Whatcom Falls
14 = Sehome
15 = WWU
16 = South Hill
17 = Happy Valley
18 = Samish
19 = Fairhaven
20 = Edgemoor
21 = South
22 = Meridian
23 = Cordata
24 = King Mountain
25 = Irongate

2012
0 1 0.5
Miles
lnLervlew or
oll ALL
homeowners
from
randomly
selecLed
clusLers
Collecung Sample uaLa:
Convenlence Sampllng
Slmply use resulLs LhaL are very easy Lo geL.
Collecung Sample uaLa
Summary
8andom
Slmple 8andom
SysLemauc
SLraued
ClusLer
Convenlence
Collecung Sample uaLa:
racuce
LxlL olls: Cn Lhe day of Lhe lasL presldenual
elecuon, A8C news organlzed an exlL poll ln whlch
speclc polllng sLauons were randomly selecLed
and all voLers were surveyed as Lhey le Lhe
premlses.
SLudy of PealLh lans: Slx dlerenL healLh plans
were randomly selecLed, and all of Lhelr members
were surveyed abouL Lhelr sausfacuon (based on a
pro[ecL sponsored by 8Anu and Lhe CenLer for
PealLh Care ollcy and Lvaluauon).
racuce
CuallLy ConLrol ln ManufacLurlng: 1he lederal-
Mogul Company manufacLures Champlon brand
spark plugs. 1he procedure for quallLy conLrol ls Lo
LesL every 100
Lh
spark plug from Lhe assembly llne.
Currlculum lannlng: ln a sLudy of college
programs, 820 sLudenLs are randomly selecLed
from Lhose ma[orlng ln communlcauons, 1463
sLudenLs are randomly selecLed from Lhose
ma[orlng ln buslness, and 760 sLudenLs are
randomly selecLed from Lhose ma[orlng ln hlsLory.
racuce
Callup oll: ln a Callup poll, 1003 adulLs were
called aer Lhelr Lelephone numbers were
randomly generaLed by a compuLer, and 20 of
Lhem sald LhaL Lhey geL news on Lhe lnLerneL
every day.
SysLemauc Sample: A quallLy conLrol englneer
selecLs every 10,000
Lh
M&M plaln candy LhaL ls
produced. uoes Lhls sampllng plan resulL ln a
random sample? Slmple random sample? Lxplaln.
Collecung Sample uaLa:
Sampllng Lrror
ulerence beLween a sample resulL and Lhe
Lrue populauon resulL due Lo chance sample
ucLuauons.
8andomly selecL 300 sLudenLs and ask Lhem lf
Lhey drlnk coee and record sample who
answer yes".
lf repeaLed sample, would llkely geL dlerenL
Called varlauon ln Samples or varlablllLy
Collecung Sample uaLa:
nonsampllng Lrror
Cccur when sample daLa collecLed, recorded
or analyzed lncorrecLly.
A faulLy pP meLer, a Lranscrlpuon error ln daLa
recordlng
Sample 8las Sample collecLed from populauon
and some members more llkely Lo be chosen Lhan
oLhers
Self-selecuon blas volunLeer welghL sLudy selecLs for
Lhose comforLable reporung Lhelr welghL LhroughouL
SAMLlnC AC1lvl1?
CollecL hearL raLe daLa
ueclde how Lo measure (reduce nonsampllng error)
Measure and record daLa (crlucal Lhlnklng: posslblllLy
of lnaccuraLe reporL resulLs)
Whlle collecung, Lhlnk abouL
WhaL ls Lhe varlable? WhaL Lype? Cbservauon or
LxperlmenL? uene populauon and sample.
SAMLlnC AC1lvl1?
.conunued.
?our daLa (n8 = no response)
! #$%&' (%'$
)
*
+
,
-
.
/

SAMLlnC AC1lvl1?
CollecL hearL raLe daLa. ldenufy
osslble hypoLheses (whaL we mlghL learn from
daLa)
SuggesL sLausucal analyses (how varlable, whaL's
Lhe mean or average value)
Ways of sampllng from class Laken as populauon
Sampllng errors, nonsampllng errors

nexL.8egln SLudy of MeLhods
opulauon
Sample
SLausucal SLudy
0$12&3456$
7'%51521
robablllLy
lnferenual SLausucs