Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
December 2013
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Contents
European Car Market: Overview .................................................................................................................. 3 2013 New Vehicle Registrations by Country:................................................................................................ 6 Passenger Cars: Top 5 ................................................................................................................................... 8 Passenger Cars: Top 5 (indexed) ................................................................................................................... 9 Passenger Cars: Top 6-10 ............................................................................................................................ 10 Passenger Cars: The PIIGHs......................................................................................................................... 11 Passenger Cars: Best Markets ..................................................................................................................... 12 Commercial Vehicles: Major Countries....................................................................................................... 14 Commercial Vehicles: Top 5 Countries (indexed) ....................................................................................... 15 Commercial vehicles: Top 6-10 Markets..................................................................................................... 16 Commercial Vehicles: The PIIGHs ............................................................................................................... 17 Commercial Vehicles: Eastern Europe ........................................................................................................ 18 Total EU Market (indexed) .......................................................................................................................... 19 Total EU Market (% yoy) ............................................................................................................................. 20
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Within the EU, Germany produces around 37% of all passenger cars and 41% of all trucks. Excluding new additions to the EU (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia), the production of passenger cars in the EU in 2011 was below the level seen in 1990.
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Within a decade, the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) grabbed 13%-points in world market share from the EU and another 8%-points from NAFTA
7 EU countries make up almost 80% of the installed base, with Germany, Italy, France and UK commanding more than 50%.
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Imports of passenger cars into the EU from Japan fell by almost 50% from 2006 to 2011 Imports from the US fell by more than 50% from 2008 to 2009
Exports of passenger cars from the EU show elevated volatility, possibly amplified by currency movements A shortfall in exports to the US of EUR 7bn since 2006 was more than compensated by an increase in exports to China (+15bn), Russia (+2.7bn), Switzerland (+2.6bn) and Turkey (+2.3bn). In 2006, exports to the US were more than 10 times larger than those to China; in 2011, both were almost equal.
CONCLUSION: Global car markets have undergone dramatic changes over the last 5-10 years. A healthy domestic market and somewhat flexible workforce are indispensible for profitable utilization of capacities over the cycle.
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Spain and UK growing; rest flat Momentum improved Scrapping premiums, like in Spain, simply pull future demand forward; the effect usually does not last
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Netherlands bouncing back after dropping below the 2008/09 bottom The rest: stabilizing
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Greece: The patient's heart beat almost stopped Ireland and Iceland were the first to bottom out Portugal the last country (apart from Greece) to recover
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Few markets have managed to exceed registrations compared to 2007 Eastern Europe (2) and Scandinavia (2) are well represented in this list
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New commercial vehicle registrations are back to growth in all major markets except Italy Momentum is improving further
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Spain is growing, but from very depressed levels Germany and France are bottoming out Italy stopped the decline
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Netherlands are, as with passenger cars, in a depressed state Poland showing encouraging signs Austria has bottomed out Sweden and Belgium stabilizing
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Hungary: remarkable turnaround continues Ireland and Iceland found rock bottom early, but no growth since then Portugal : stabilization at a depressed level Greece: trending lower
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Slovenia much better than the rest, but might be in jeopardy if country has to apply for bailout
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Both passenger and commercial vehicle markets show growing signs of improvement
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Total EU new passenger car registrations are still slightly below previous year level Commercial new car registrations are growing for the first time in 18 months.
CONCLUSION: Momentum in European passenger and commercial new vehicle registrations is improving. Slight growth in 2014 should be possible. However, improvements are limited to the big three markets (UK, Germany, France) while the European periphery and Eastern Europe are, at best, stabilizing at depressed levels. A continued strengthening of the Euro could dent car exports into non-Euro markets. Turmoil in emerging markets could spill over into non-Euro zone countries (Hungary) and hurt car sales.
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