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This Weeks Agenda 0) Review of HW1/2 & Inventory Control Theory 1) Risk Pooling, Extensions 2) IP/LP Modeling Revisited 3) Case Discussion: Sport Obermeyer
Inventory Management
Independent Demand Inventory
Dependent vs. independent demand Basic Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model Multi-period models: demand / lead time variability
No fixed ordering costs: the base-stock model (S) Fixed ordering costs: the base-stock model (s,S)
Why do companies hold inventory? Why might they avoid doing so?
WHY?
To meet anticipated customer demand To account for differences in production timing (smoothing) To protect against uncertainty (demand surge, price increase, lead time slippage) To maintain independence of operations (buffering) To take advantage of economic purchase order size
WHY NOT?
Requires additional space Opportunity cost of capital Spoilage / obsolescence
Body Assy.
E(1)
Wheel (1)
Dependent Dependent Demand Demand (Deriveddemand demand (Derived itemsfor for items componentparts, parts, component subassemblies, subassemblies, rawmaterials, materials, raw etc.) etc.)
On-hand Inventory
Demand Rate, D
Average Cycle Inventory, Q/2 Reorder Point, R
Q/2
Place Order
Receive order
Time
Lead Time, L
TC
(D / Q) K + (Q / 2) h
Ordering Cost
Q*
Time
On-hand Inventory
Time
EOQ Example
D = 1,000 units per year BE CAREFUL! K = $20 per order h = $8.33 per unit per month
HOW MUCH TO ORDER? WHEN TO ORDER? Number of orders per year = Length of order cycle = T = Total cost =
Exercise
Question: What if the company can only order in multiples of 12? (That is, order either 0 or 12 or 24 or 36, etc)?
TC
Q*-Q
Q*
Q*+Q
Order Quantity
Would have to mis-specify Q* by quite a bit before total annual inventory costs would change significantly. Example
TC!
Variations of EOQ
Some assumptions so far
Constant price Certain and constant demand rate Instantaneous replenishment
Place order L
Receive order
Safety Stock
Stock carried to provide a level of protection against costly stockouts due to uncertainty of demand during lead time Stock outs occur when
Demand over the lead time is larger than expected
Inventory Level
s= ROP
Expected demand
Time
Safety Stock
Computing s
Assumption: Demand Demand over over lead-time lead-timeis isnormally normallydistributed distributed Assumption: Probability {Demand over lead-time < s} = 1-
1-
1 - .90 z 1.28
.95 1.65
.98 2.05
.99 2.33
.999 3.09
1-
z=
s = + z
Computation of Variance for Demand over Lead Time: Variability Comes From Two Sources
1: Suppose only demand di in day i is variable; lead time is constant at AVGL
DL = d1 + d 2 + ... + d AVGL
AVGL times
Var {DL } = Var {d1 + d 2 + ... + d AVGL } = Var {d1 } + Var {d 2 } + ... + Var {d AVGL } = AVGL STD 2
dis are independent dis are identically distributed
2: Now, suppose only lead time is variable; daily demand is constant at AVG
DL = L AVG
More specifically.
Mean demand over LT Safety factor (std normal table) Standard deviation of demand over LT Safety stock SS
Example:
Consider inventory management for a certain SKU at Home Depot. Supply lead time is variable (since it depends on order consolidation with other stores) and has a mean of 5 days and std deviation of 2 days. Daily demand for the item is variable with a mean of 30 units and c.v. of 20%. Find the reorder point for 95% service level.
AVG = 30;
STD = 0.2(30) = 6
z = 1.64
AVGL = 5;
STDL = 2
s = AVG AVGL + z STDL2 AVG2 + STD2 AVGL = 30 5 + 1.64 22 302 + 62 5 = 150 + 100.8 = 251
S
Average demand during lead time L Order placed Order arrives Safety Stock
R s
Time
s should be set to cover the lead time demand and together with a safety stock that insures the stock out probability is within the specific limit (When to reorder). S depends on the fixed order cost EOQ (How much)
Order when: inventory position (IP) drops below s Order how much: bring IP to S
Compute Q using the EOQ formula, using mean demand D = AVG (be careful about units):
Q= 2 K AVG h
Set S = s + Q
s = 251
h = (.15)80/360 = 0.0333;
Q=
K = 50;
AVG = 30
S = s + Q = 251+ 300 = 551
Use (s, S) policy How much: Q = S s (Q is from EOQ formula) When: IP drops below s (base-stock policy formula)
no
Use base stock (s) policy When: IP drops below s How much: necessary to bring IP back to s
Exercise
Consider previous Home Depot example, however, there are fixed ordering costs, which are estimated at $50. Assume that holding costs are 15% of the product cost ($80) per year. Also, assume that the store is open 360 days a year.
Risk Pooling
(safety) stock based on standard deviation
square root law: stock for combined demands usually less than the combined stocks (depends on what?)
2 X +Y
= +
2 X 2 X
2 Y 2 Y
X+Y = +
Now,both bothwarehouse warehouseand and Now, retailershold holdinventory. inventory. retailers Howto tomanage manageinventory inventory How inthis thissupply supplychain? chain? in
Warehou se
Retailer s
Typical split between classifications: No more than 20% of the items as Class A; no less than 50% of the items as Class C.
Problem:Find Finda adistribution distributionstrategy strategythat thatspecifies specifiesthe theflow flowof ofproducts productsfrom from Problem: plantsto towarehouses warehousesto tomarkets marketswith withminimum minimumtotal totaldistribution distributioncost cost plants Example 2-3, text pp.36-37
Problem 1 Network
markets demand capacity unlimited plants P1 5 0 warehouses 3 W1 5 2 2 W2 C2 1 2 C3 50K 100K 4 C1 50K
4 60K P2
markets C1 50K
warehouses W1
3 4 5
4 60K P2 60K
For every market, W2 is picked
2 2 W2 200K
C2 1 2 C3
100K
50K
C2 100K
x(p1 ,w1) + x(p2,w1) = x(w1 ,c1) + x(w1 ,c2) + x(w1 ,c3) x(w1 ,c1) + x(w2,c1) = 50,000 x(w1 ,c2) + x(w2,c2) = 100,000 x(w1 ,c3) + x(w2,c3) = 50,000
All flows greater than or equal to zero
Capacity constraint at plant 2 Flow conservation at warehouse 1 (flow in = flow out) Flow conservation at warehouse 2
Flows to customer 1 has to be equal to its demand Flows to customer 2 has to be equal to its demand Flows to customer 3 has to be equal to its demand Non-negativity constraints
Optimal Solution
The solution to the problem can be obtained via Excel Solver (see Excel File)
0 60,000
Extensions
nonlinear objective function integer decision variables binary decision variables (yes or no) uncertainty stochastic programming simulation commercial software packages CAPS logistics (specialized for SCM) CPLEX, GAMS, IBM OSL (general purpose)
2 7 W4 5
Warehouse cost
Problem: Pick two warehouses and find a distribution strategy such that total warehousing and distribution cost is minimum
cost
W1
500K
3 4 5 2 1 2 36 6
demands C1 50K
W2
400K
C2 100K
W3
400K
2 7 W4 5
C3 50K
Step 2: Given the warehouses, apply the heuristic used for Problem 1 (for each market, choose the cheapest warehouse; for each warehouse, choose the cheapest plant) 3 4 5 2 W2 1 2 36 6 C3 50K C2 100K demands C1 50K
capacities 0 unlimited P1
100K 40K
W1 5
6 4
0 2 2 0
60K
W3
100K
P2
60K
2 7 W4 5
100K
Total distribution cost = 406 + 502 + 1006 + 505 = 1190K Total cost = 800 + 1190 = 1990K
Optimization Approach
Step 1
Step 2
Optimization: Optimization:
Selectionof ofone one Selection ormore more sites sites or Allocationof of Allocation demandto tosites sites demand
cost
W1
500K
3 4 5 2 1 2 36 6
demands C1 50K
W2
400K
C2 100K
W3
400K
2 7 W4 5
C3 50K
Involve discrete choices, cannot use LP! Have to use IP Define Decision Variables:
Y(j) = 1 if warehouse Wj is picked, 0 otherwise, for j = 1, 2, 3, 4 X(i,j) = amount sent from location i to j, for all the links (i, j) in the network
cost
capacities 0 unlimited P1
150K
W1 5
150K
500K
3 4 5 2 1 2 36 6
demands C1 50K
6 4
0 2 2 0
W2
400K
C2 100K
60K
W3
400K
P2
50K
2 6 W4 6
50K
C3 50K
Place your vote (sales rate: 3:1, 2:1, 1:1, 1:2, 1:3)
Number Sold: 4,000 Number Sold: 4
Cut/Sew
Distribution Center
Retailers
Textile Suppliers
Obersport
Obermeyer
Retailers
What makes it difficult for Sport Obermeyer to be effective in managing its supply chain?
Long ___________ Early ___________ Large _________ Short __________ Uncertain __________
__________ product: one season __________ data useless Late demand signal
high ___________
Limited ___________
Design begins Sketches done Design finalized 1st order placed Las Vegas More retail orders Selling season
Order fabric Prototype production Start work Full scale production Ship to US
Initial Forecast
Excess inventory
Limited capacity effects (could have used that capacity to produce something that stocked out
Stock out
Nov/92
Mar/93
Jun/93
Aug/93
Sept/93
Forecast updates
How should Wally think about how much of each style he should order in November?
G ail Isis En tice A ssa ult Te ri E le ctra Step han ie S ed uced A nita Daph ne Total 1,00 0 1,00 0 1,00 0 1,00 0 1,00 0 1,00 0 1,00 0 1,00 0 1,00 0 1,00 0 10,00 0
(4) Pick two warehouses Y(w1) + Y(w2) + Y(w3) + Y(w4) = 2 (5) Flow conservation at each warehouse (total in flow = total out flow) X(p1,w1) + X(p2,w1) = X(w1,c1) + X(w1,c2) + X(w1,c3) X(p1,w2) + X(p2,w2) = X(w2,c1) + X(w2,c2) + X(w2,c3) X(p1,w3) + X(p2,w3) = X(w3,c1) + X(w3,c2) + X(w3,c3) X(p1,w4) + X(p2,w4) = X(w4,c1) + X(w4,c2) + X(w4,c3) (6) Y variables are binary, X variables are nonnegative Y(j) = 0 or 1, for all j = w1, w2, w3, w4 X(i,j) >= 0, for all link (i, j)
SeeExcel Excelfile fileto toknow knowhow howit itis issolved solvedby byExcel ExcelSolver Solver See