California Economic Forecast January 2014

B U S I N E S S
F O R E C A S T I N G
C E N T E R
January 2014
California & Metro
U N I V E R S I T Y O F T H E PA C I F I C E B E R H A R D T S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S
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California & Metro Forecast

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2014-2018
California & Metro
January 2014
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Published quarterly by the Business Forecasting Center at the
University of the Pacic Eberhardt School of Business.
Copyright 2014 Business Forecasting Center. All rights reserved.
This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reecting the Forecasting Centers
judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast.
Neither the Pacic Business Forecasting Center nor The Regents of the University of
the Pacic shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless
approved by the Pacic Business Forecasting Center, the publication or distribution of
this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this
forecast are prohibited.
Contents
California Highlights .................................................. 5

Forecast Summary .............................................6 - 10
California Forecast Tables ................................. 11 - 19
California Forecast Charts .................................20 - 25
Fresno MSA .....................................................27 - 30
Merced MSA ....................................................31 - 34
Modesto MSA.................................................. 35 - 38
Oakland MSA....................................................39 - 42
Sacramento MSA............................................. 43 - 46
San Francisco MSA ...........................................47 - 50
San Jose MSA ..................................................51 - 54
Santa Cruz MSA .............................................. 55 - 58
Stockton MSA ..................................................59 - 62
Vallejo-Fairfield MSA ......................................... 63 - 66
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS
Highlights of the January 2014 California Forecast

California is forecast to experience 3% growth in real gross state product over the
2014 calendar year, and accelerate to 3.6% growth in 2015.
California unemployment rate has fallen below 8.5% due to increasing employment
and very slow growth in the labor force. We expect the unemployment rate to show
little change in 2014 as labor force growth accelerates to match a 1.5% to 2.0%
growth rate of employment.
Payroll jobs are projected to grow at 1.6% rate in 2014, and increase to 2% growth
from 2015 to 2017 as the housing recovery reignites homebuilding.
Single-family housing starts have been slower to respond to increased housing prices
than we have anticipated, and we have reduced our forecast for 2014 single family
housing starts to 48,000 units. We project a significant increase to 72,000 singlefamily units in 2015, 94,000 in 2016, and remaining just below 100,000 units in
subsequent years.
Multi-family housing starts have nearly recovered pre-recession levels, and are
projected to increase from 35,000 new starts in 2013 to 60,000 units by 2017.
State and local government employment stabilized in 2013, and will remain flat
for most of 2014. We expect 1% growth in state and local government payrolls
to resume in 2015 and subsequent years. By 2018, we expect state and local
government payrolls will have only recovered 100,000 of the 135,000 jobs lost since
2007.
About 250,000 new Construction jobs are expected to be created over the next four
years, almost one-quarter of the 1.1 million jobs California will add between 2013
and 2017. Despite leading the state in job growth over the next four years, there will
still be fewer Construction jobs than before the recession.
Manufacturing employment has been relatively flat for the past 3 years after a
decade of significant decline. We project slow growth over the next few years with
some of the growth driven by the construction rebound and the increasing demand
for building materials.
The Health Services sector was the only private sector to experience consistent job
growth throughout the recession. Health care employment will continue consistent
gains of about 35,000 jobs per year over the next few years.
Professional Scientific & Technical Services is a high-paying sector that has led job
growth in the recovery and fully recovered pre-recession employment in early 2012.
This sector will see somewhat slower job growth, but still add at least 20,000 jobs
annually from 2013 to 2017.
University of the Pacic Business Forecasting Center
FORECAST SUMMARY
California Outlook
The California economy continues its slow recovery.
Reduced fiscal and global risks and an improving housing
market set the stage for stronger growth in 2014. However,
new home construction is responding more slowly to
higher housing prices than we originally estimated. As a
result, one of the major drivers of 2014 forecast is weaker
than our earlier forecasts. Between the slow home building
response and a very modest general growth impact from
deepening drought conditions, we believe economic
growth will once again remain below 3% in 2014, before
accelerating to approximately 3.5% growth between
2015 and 2017. We project a 40,000 unit increase in new
housing starts between 2014 and 2015.
We forecast significant growth in the labor force in
2014 as individuals respond to the improving economy.
Thus, the unemployment rate will hold steady around
8.5% in 2014 even as job growth maintains a 1.5% to
2% growth rate. Of course, we made a similar forecast
in 2013 and labor force participation did not respond
and unemployment declined faster than we projected. If
labor force participation remains at a depressed level, the
unemployment rate could decline to 7% by the end of the
year. Professional and Business Services and Construction
are projected to have the strongest job growth over
the next year, while we project flat employment in
manufacturing and finance.
It is an election year in California, and we are not
expecting major new economic policy initiatives at the
state level. However, it will be a pivotal year for the future
of the states two proposed megaprojects, high-speed rail
and the delta water tunnels. Both projects face formidable
financing challenges that could either stop or lead to major
project restructuring before the end of the year.
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF DROUGHT:

The extreme drought gripping the state is dominating
news headlines and will have significant economic
impacts, especially on the agriculture and recreation
industries. However, urban areas in Southern California
and the Bay Area will be largely unaffected, and these
two regions account for the vast majority of economic
activity in California. Thus, even the worst case drought
scenarios should have no more than a quarter percentage
point impact on Californias economic growth. However,
the economic impacts on specific industries and some
hard-hit rural communities can be very severe, and
significant environmental and quality of life impacts
occur even in areas where economic output is virtually
unchanged by dry conditions.
It is too early to make projections for 2014, but our
research on the effects of the 2009 drought provides some
insight into potential impacts on agriculture. In 2009,
agricultural water shortages in the San Joaquin Valley
resulted in about 250,000 fallowed acres, and the loss
of about $350 million loss in agricultural output and
6,000 agricultural related jobs. While this only amounts
to about 3% of Californias enormous crop output, the
fallowing was highly concentrated in areas on the west
side of Kern, Kings and Fresno counties where junior
water rights result in the largest water shortages. These
areas include some of the poorest, rural communities in
the country, so they are poorly equipped to deal with
the loss of agricultural jobs. During 2009, many media
reports and public leaders fueled by some inaccurate
initial estimates of 40,000 to 90,000 lost jobs that were
later withdrawn and corrected failed to distinguish
between the economic impacts of the endangered species
Table 1. California Annual Forecast Summary
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Real Gross State Product (% change)
2.4
2.3
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.3
Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change)
1.7
1.6
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.3
Unemployment Rate (%)
8.9
8.5
8.0
7.3
6.4
5.9
Housing Starts (thousands)
70.6
87.5
124.9
151.7
157.1
161.4
California & Metro Forecast - January 2014
FORECAST SUMMARY
regulations, the drought, the impacts of the deep 2009

recession and the foreclosure crisis, and the persistent
high poverty gripping these communities in wet years and
dry years.
Most current media reports and statements from public
officials about the water crisis have been more responsible
than the exaggerated rhetoric of 2009. However, water
shortages currently look like they will be even more severe
in 2014 than 2009, so the economic impacts are likely
to be larger as well and could spread out into a broader
area. Farmers are resourceful in droughts, and because
they take many costly actions to maintain farm output in
dry conditions, the loss in production can understate the
full economic toll on agriculture. Increased groundwater
pumping and deeper wells mean higher costs that reduce
farmers bottom lines, and deplete groundwater resources
for use in future years. Farmers also bear higher costs
for water transfers and significantly increased feed costs
to maintain livestock that reduce profitability and raise
concerns with lenders.
While agriculture feels the most acute impacts of
drought, other industries also feel effects. Ski resorts
are suffering from low snow totals, and their employees
are enduring reduced hours and earnings. Marinas on
reservoirs are land-locked, and fishing related industries
will feel the environmental effects for many years.
Consumer expenditures on car washes, landscaping
and other services will decline. All of these impacts,
from agriculture to recreation, will become more severe
in subsequent years if the drought continues. As more
information becomes available in the months ahead, we
will provide more detailed estimates of economic impacts
in our spring forecast.
Finally, the drought is also exposing some of the flaws
in the States $25 billion Bay Delta Conservation Plan
(BDCP) proposal which is based on the construction of
enormous water conveyance tunnels under the Delta. It is
difficult to promote enormous investments in conveyance
infrastructure to move water from northern California
to southern California when the Metropolitan Water
Districts reservoirs in southern California are full while
Folsom Reservoir sits at less than 18% capacity. Southern
California water agencies are not imposing any water use
restrictions, while such restrictions are widespread around
Sacramento and other parts of northern California that
are supposedly water rich. In fact, the relatively good
water supply conditions in urban southern California are
convincing evidence of the effectiveness of investments
in conservation, alternative water supplies, and storage;

and show why further investments in this area are
superior to the tunnels plan. Achieving even greater water
independence in these coastal urban areas will free up
Delta water for agriculture and the environment, but
investments needed to achieve this independence would
be threatened by the financial needs of the tunnels.
There are already widespread doubts in San Joaquin
Valley agricultures ability to pay the enormous debt
service on the tunnels, especially when the BDCP plan
shows the tunnels will not provide more water in dry
years when it is most needed. Future bondholders will
not care whether the state is in a multi-year drought and
will require payment even when hundreds of thousands
of acres are fallowed and farm incomes are low. Previous
reports by the Business Forecasting Center have detailed
why the BDCP is bad investment for the state and the
current drought is only reinforcing those conclusions.
THE REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK:
Northern California, primarily fueled by San Jose and
San Francisco, continues to lead Californias economic
recovery. The regional recovery is now beginning to
spread inland, and we forecast that northern California
will continue to outperform the state as a whole. We
forecast that seven out of the ten metro areas we cover will
outperform Californias 1.6% job growth in 2014.
Sacramento is among the areas that we expect to exceed
2% job growth in 2014. The recovery is driven by the
construction and service sectors, supported by rising
home values and the improving state budget outlook.
Government, the regions largest employer, will struggle
to achieve 1% job growth, but the end of furloughs and
modest raises to state worker paychecks will support
the consumer and service sectors. We are anticipating
significant revisions to Sacramento employment data and
March, and believe that weak forecasts for the Capital
Region based on recent monthly jobs reports will prove to
be overly pessimistic.
We project the northern San Joaquin Valley will lead
northern California in the pace of job growth for 2014.
Annual job growth is projected to range from 2.7% in
Modesto to 3.7% in the Stockton metro area. Some of this
significant growth is simply an outcome of rebounding
from the lowest bottom, but it also is driven by some
catalyst projects such as the new Amazon facilities in
Patterson and Tracy. Much of the recent growth in
FORECAST SUMMARY
warehousing and transportation has yet to show up in the

monthly jobs data, and we also anticipate positive revisions
for this region when employment data is revised and
benchmarked to the latest tax filing data in March.
In contrast, we project Fresno will experience continued
sub-par job growth. We project non-farm job growth
will lag the state average at only 1.3% in 2014. When
combined with the expected decline of several thousand
farm jobs due to the severe drought, overall employment
in the Fresno area will be flat in 2014. In Fresno, the
recession was slower to arrive and not as deep as the
northern San Joaquin Valley, but the recovery has been
slower and the unemployment rate is once again higher
than in Stockton and Modesto. High-speed rail was
anticipated as a construction stimulus for the Fresno area
this year, but we have not included it in the forecast due to
the projects significant legal and financial challenges.
Both the San Jose and San Francisco MSA have now
fully recovered to their pre-recession level of employment,
a milestone that the Oakland MSA is not projected to
reach until 2016. When it comes to job decline and
recovery, the East Bay has performed more like part of
the Central Valley and we project another year of sub-par
1.4% growth for 2014. However, East Bay residents have
benefited from the strong job markets in San Jose and
San Francisco, so unemployment is significantly below
the state average and will reach 6% by the end of next
year. The San Francisco and San Jose MSAs will continue
to outpace the state in our forecast, but job growth will
come back to a more moderate 2.5% in 2014. Despite the
strength in the tech economy, San Francisco job growth
will fall below 2% by 2016 as high housing costs and

growth constraints slow the economy. The controversy
surrounding Google buses and rising rents in San
Francisco driven by young tech workers is a tangible sign
of the forces that will slow growth in the years ahead.
Santa Cruz and Vallejo also posted rapid local job
growth in 2014. Santa Cruz has been driven by growing
tourism spending and government employment as UC
budgets improved, but the data for this small economy is
volatile and we expect slower growth and Bay Area type
growth constraints to result in slower growth in 2014
and subsequent years. The Vallejo region has experienced
relatively broad based job growth, including construction,
health care and retail trade. The Vallejo MSA will
continue to benefit from the strong Bay Area economy and
experience another year of solid, 2.8% job growth in 2014.
STOCKTON BANKRUPTCY UPDATE:
Creditor Settlements and Sales Tax Increase
Make Bankruptcy Exit Likely in 2014
It was an eventful fall in the Stockton bankruptcy
case. In early October, the City announced settlements
with its two largest and most antagonistic bond creditors
who were leading the case against the Citys bankruptcy.
The settlements restructured about $200 million of
outstanding debt, most notably the $125 million in
pension bonds the City issued in 2007 and the settlements
were contingent on the passage of a sales tax initiative
on the November ballot. Shortly thereafter, the City
submitted its plan of adjustment to bankruptcy court
that depended on the sales tax passing. In November,
Table 2. Central Valley Metro Forecast Summary

Metro Area
Nonfarm Payroll Employment (% change)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Sacramento
1.6
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.2
8.7
8.1
7.3
6.5
5.7
Stockton
2.6
3.7
2.2
2.2
1.9
12.8
12.0
11.2
10.1
9.1
Modesto
1.7
2.7
1.8
2.1
2.0
12.9
12.0
11.3
10.6
9.8
Merced
1.7
3.1
2.4
2.4
2.3
14.9
14.1
13.3
12.4
11.4
Fresno
1.2
1.3
2.0
2.2
2.1
13.1
12.8
12.1
11.2
10.4
California
1.7
1.6
1.9
2.0
1.8
8.9
8.5
8.0
7.3
6.4
NOTE: Sacramento MSA includes Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, and Yolo counties. Stockton, Merced, Fresno and Modesto MSAs correspond to San Joaquin,
Merced, Fresno and Stanislaus counties.
FORECAST SUMMARY
Table 3. Bay Area Metro Forecast Summary

Metro Area
Nonfarm Payroll Employment (% change)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
San Francisco
3.1
2.6
2.1
1.8
1.4
5.5
5.0
4.7
4.3
3.8
San Jose
2.9
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.2
6.9
6.4
5.9
5.3
4.6
Oakland
1.3
1.4
2.2
2.2
1.8
7.4
6.9
6.5
5.8
5.1
Santa Cruz
4.4
0.9
1.6
1.4
1.1
9.2
8.6
8.0
7.3
6.7
Vallejo
2.8
2.8
2.2
2.4
2.2
8.3
8.0
7.6
6.6
5.7
California
1.7
1.6
1.9
2.0
1.8
8.9
8.5
8.0
7.3
6.4
NOTE: San Francisco MSA includes San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties. Oakland MSA includes Contra Costa and Alameda counties. San Jose MSA
includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties. Vallejo and Santa Cruz MSAs correspond to Solano and Santa Cruz counties.
Stockton voters narrowly passed the cent sales tax

increase with 53% of voters supporting the measure, and
an accompanying non-binding advisory measure that
directs the City to spend 2/3 of the new sales tax proceeds
on public safety.
As of this writing, the Citys plan of adjustment is
still being challenged by the one major creditor who has
not settled with the City, and the bankruptcy court is
expected to hear the case this winter. If the court accepts
the plan of adjustment, Stockton could leave bankruptcy
protection later this year.
The City may yet reach a settlement with the remaining
major creditor, Franklin Investments, over roughly $30
million in bonds issued in 2009, clearing the largest
remaining obstacle to its bankruptcy. Since the Citys
initial offer is for Franklin to take a near total loss on its
investment, because the bond collateral is worthless to
the creditors. The bonds are backed by Stocktons moneylosing public golf courses, but the creditors are not allowed
to change the use of the properties if they take possession
of them. The City is likely to improve its offer, but is
unlikely to increase its offer to much more than a 50% loss
because of a most favored nation clause in its pension
bond settlement which requires the City to improve the
pension bond settlement to match any future settlements
it may reach with other creditors.
Even if the City reaches a settlement with Franklin,
there is the question of whether the Citys plan of
adjustment is adequate to return the City to fiscal
health. The plan assumes the sales tax increase passed in
November is made permanent and does not expire in ten
years as promised to the Citys taxpayers. The bankruptcy
exit plan projects the City rebuilds a financial reserve in
the next few years before all of the 120 promised police
officers are hired, but returns to annual deficits after all
the new police officers are hired. The Citys exit plan does
not forecast a significant budget surplus or an adequate
financial reserve when the tax would expire in ten years,
thus it assumes future city councils will extend the tax.
It will be interesting to see if the court has financial
concerns about the plan of adjustment. Regardless, it
is clear that the City will have extremely tight budgets
for the foreseeable future and hiring all of the promised
120 police officers will prove difficult, especially if new
employee contracts include restoration of raises and cost
of living increases. Stocktons new city manager will face
continuing challenges to balance the budget and restore
services even though the City is likely to exit bankruptcy
this year.
Despite these future challenges, Stockton is in a much
stronger position today than most would have anticipated
when the City filed for bankruptcy in 2012. In 2012,
Stockton was in a deep financial and public safety crisis.
The City was defaulting on bonds and losing control of
city assets, police officers were leaving the City for jobs in
other areas, and a violent crime wave reached a record 71
homicides with a number of brazen, headline grabbing
crimes in broad daylight. While there was certainly a lot
of drama surrounding City politics in 2013, the Stockton
economic and public safety situation began a remarkable
stabilization and a surprisingly robust turnaround. Jobs
are growing again, crime rates have declined significantly,
and home values have increased 30% - the fastest rate
of appreciation in the country according to the Federal
Housing Finance Authority.
FORECAST SUMMARY
CHANGING INCOME INEQUALITY IN NORTHERN

CALIFORNIA:
Rising income inequality is increasingly in the news
and was a focus of President Obamas State of the Union
address. In San Francisco, protests and controversy about
private buses transporting high-income tech workers to
Silicon Valley and related concerns about rising housing
costs and gentrification have added an interesting regional
dimension to the discussion. The most common measure
of income inequality is a Gini coefficient, a measure in
which 0 is total equality and a coefficient of 1 reflects
total income inequality. Table 4 shows trends in Gini
coefficients for the region calculated from the Census
Bureau data.
The data shows the trend in rising inequality in the U.S.

and California. Regionally, the highest levels of inequality
are in the San Francisco MSA, and the lowest levels of
income inequality are in Placer and El Dorado counties,
eastern suburbs of the Sacramento area. Interestingly, the
San Jose MSA had the lowest level of inequality in 1990,
but has experienced the largest increase in inequality
although Santa Clara County still has a lower degree of
inequality than the California average. San Joaquin Valley
MSAs have experienced a smaller increase in the level of
inequality over the past two decades than larger urban
areas, and all of them now have levels of inequality below
the California average.
Table 4. Historic Gini Coefficents

1990
2000
2010
2012
United States
0.428
0.462
0.469
0.476
California
0.441
0.475
0.471
0.482
Fresno MSA
0.454
0.469
0.462
0.478
Merced MSA
0.434
0.442
0.489
0.452
Modesto MSA
0.426
0.439
0.458
0.446
Alameda County
0.417
0.446
0.459
0.475
Contra Costa County
0.409
0.439
0.445
0.462
El Dorado County
0.397
0.433
0.442
0.425
Placer County
0.412
0.424
0.425
0.432
Sacramento County
0.409
0.431
0.434
0.456
Yolo County
0.443
0.458
0.464
0.480
Marin County
0.457
0.486
0.512
0.517
San Francisco County
0.470
0.498
0.507
0.523
San Mateo County
0.423
0.458
0.453
0.485
Santa Clara County
0.394
0.430
0.452
0.466
San Benito County
0.394
0.394
0.458
0.450
Santa Cruz MSA
0.425
0.452
0.460
0.462
Stockton MSA
0.418
0.441
0.436
0.456
Oakland MSA
Sacramento MSA
San Francisco MSA
San Jose MSA
Source: 1990 & 2000 Decennial Census; 2006-2012 1-year ACS, except San Benito County
2007-2012 3-year ACS
10
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for California
Personal Income and Gross State Product

Personal Income (Bil. $)
Calif. (%Ch)
Real Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)
(%Ch)
Real Disposable Income (Bil. 2005$)
(%Ch)
Gross State Product (Bil. $)
Calif. (%Ch)
Real GSP (Bil. 2005$)
Calif. (%Ch)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1499.5
7.4
1460.3
4.6
1270.6
4.0
1798.2
6.5
1745.4
3.4
1564.4
4.3
1486.4
1.8
1284.0
1.1
1870.9
4.0
1763.5
1.0
1596.3
2.1
1471.8
-1.0
1288.6
0.4
1900.5
1.6
1756.1
-0.4
1536.4
-3.7
1417.6
-3.7
1268.6
-1.6
1818.6
-4.3
1667.2
-5.0
1579.1
2.8
1433.1
1.1
1276.2
0.6
1845.3
1.5
1672.5
0.3
1683.2
6.6
1492.0
4.1
1312.6
2.9
1908.9
3.5
1692.3
1.2
1768.0
5.0
1538.6
3.1
1348.3
2.7
2003.4
4.9
1754.3
3.7
1804.4
2.1
1553.0
1.0
1345.6
-0.2
2072.4
3.4
1796.4
2.4
1890.6
4.8
1606.5
3.4
1389.5
3.3
2154.2
3.9
1837.8
2.3
1985.6
5.0
1661.0
3.4
1435.8
3.3
2265.4
5.2
1900.9
3.4
2095.0
5.5
1721.9
3.7
1488.9
3.7
2388.2
5.4
1969.9
3.6
2216.0
5.8
1789.4
3.9
1547.6
3.9
2514.5
5.3
2039.6
3.5
2335.1
5.4
1851.0
3.4
1599.2
3.3
2640.8
5.0
2106.5
3.3
-0.4
1.6
7.2
-4.3
0.1
11.3
-0.6
0.6
12.3
1.1
0.4
11.8
2.0
0.5
10.5
2.3
0.6
8.9
2.0
1.5
8.5
1.6
1.0
8.0
1.8
1.0
7.3
1.8
0.9
6.4
1.3
0.7
5.9
-1.3
7.9
-11.8
-2.6
-2.0
-3.0
-0.6
-1.7
-2.9
-6.1
-1.1
3.3
0.8
1.0
0.5
1.0
-6.0
-9.2
-21.1
-10.1
-8.2
-11.2
-6.0
-8.3
-7.2
-7.0
-8.0
1.6
-4.4
-7.4
1.1
-1.8
-1.0
3.0
-9.9
-3.0
-2.4
-3.4
-1.6
-0.1
-0.5
-2.9
0.7
1.6
-0.1
-2.8
6.8
-2.1
1.2
7.4
0.5
0.5
-0.3
1.0
1.7
2.2
1.5
0.3
2.9
2.7
2.3
0.2
-4.6
-1.4
2.1
4.5
4.9
0.4
0.3
0.6
2.5
2.8
1.8
1.7
4.9
2.4
4.1
0.4
-2.0
-1.2
1.7
-1.5
5.4
-0.4
-1.0
0.0
2.0
3.0
0.5
1.8
2.8
2.1
4.3
0.8
-2.5
-0.4
1.6
0.1
5.9
1.5
-0.5
2.6
2.1
1.4
0.9
-0.1
2.8
1.7
2.4
0.6
0.6
0.0
1.9
0.7
10.8
1.0
-0.3
1.7
2.9
2.1
0.4
0.2
4.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
-0.6
0.9
2.0
1.9
11.2
0.5
-0.4
1.0
3.3
2.6
0.5
0.0
3.4
2.1
1.1
2.3
-2.0
1.1
1.8
1.0
7.6
0.3
-0.2
0.6
3.0
2.2
0.6
-0.8
2.7
2.1
1.4
2.8
-1.7
1.2
1.3
1900
3.2
0.4
0.3
0.5
2.2
1.7
0.2
-0.8
2.0
2.0
1.1
1.7
-1.7
1.5
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Employment
1.4
0.9
Labor Force
0.8
1.3
CA Unemployment Rate (%)
4.9
5.3
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change)
Total Nonfarm
California
1.8
Mining
6.3
Construction
3.2
Manufacturing
-1.0
Nondurable Goods
-0.6
Durable Goods
-1.2
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
1.8
Wholesale Trade
4.0
Retail Trade
1.3
Financial Activities
0.9
Prof. and Business Services
3.8
Edu. & Health Services
1.8
Leisure & Hospitality
3.0
Information
-1.6
Federal Gov't.
-0.6
State & Local Gov't.
1.5
Population and Migration
Population (Ths.)
(%Ch)
Net Migration (Quarterly Rate, Ths.)
Housing
Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.)
Housing Starts Single Family
Housing Starts Multi-Family
Consumer Prices
(%Ch)
0.8
6.5
-4.3
-1.7
-1.2
-2.1
2.3
2.2
0.5
-3.4
1.0
3.5
2.7
1.1
-0.7
2.0
36052.0 36302.1 36648.9 37012.0 37379.8 37728.9 38086.7 38451.0 38820.3 39193.7 39571.5 39953.0 40334.3
0.6
0.7
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
-28.5
-9.1
8.6
16.5
17.3
19.2
22.8
22.8
21.8
20.8
19.9
19.0
18.8
154.1
113.7
40.4
102.1
70.1
32.0
60.9
36.5
24.4
36.0
26.7
9.3
39.1
26.8
12.3
45.8
23.9
21.9
55.7
28.7
27.0
70.6
35.4
35.2
87.5
47.9
39.7
124.9
71.8
53.1
151.7
93.7
58.0
157.1
97.8
59.3
161.4
99.5
61.9
3.4
3.2
3.3
-0.3
1.1
2.8
2.2
1.5
1.4
1.7
1.9
1.9
2.0
11
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for California

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2
Personal Income (Annual Rate, Bil. $)
1764.5
Calif. (%Ch)
3.9
1533.0
(%Ch)
2.3
1343.9
(%Ch)
1.9
2021.2
Calif. (%Ch)
5.5
1764.1
Calif. (%Ch)
4.3
1833.1
8.6
1586.2
6.8
1389.7
6.4
2033.1
4.7
1777.3
3.6
1777.7
2.6
1534.1
1.2
1330.6
0.2
2046.1
3.8
1782.2
2.9

Employment
2.1
2.0
Labor Force
0.4
0.4
10.4
9.9
Total Nonfarm
California
2.3
Mining
3.9
Construction
4.9
Manufacturing
0.4
Nondurable Goods
0.5
Durable Goods
0.4
2.7
Wholesale Trade
2.8
Retail Trade
1.6
2.2
5.2
2.5
4.5
Information
0.7
Federal Gov't.
-2.6
-1.0
Population (Ths.)
(%Ch)
Net Migration (Ths.)
1814.1
2.8
1558.5
1.7
1349.6
0.4
2086.7
3.2
1804.3
2.3
1831.8
-0.1
1571.0
-1.0
1359.5
-2.2
2097.8
3.2
1808.7
1.8
1857.5
4.5
1587.7
3.5
1373.2
3.2
2117.0
3.5
1818.1
2.0
1878.5
4.7
1599.1
3.3
1383.5
3.0
2140.4
4.0
1829.5
2.2
1901.6
4.8
1612.6
3.5
1394.4
3.3
2166.3
3.8
1843.9
2.2
1924.6
5.1
1626.5
3.5
1406.9
3.5
2193.0
4.5
1859.7
2.8
1950.7
5.0
1641.9
3.4
1418.8
3.3
2221.8
4.9
1875.2
3.1
1973.5
5.1
1654.7
3.5
1429.9
3.4
2250.7
5.2
1892.5
3.4
2.2
0.8
9.6
3.1
0.9
8.7
2.4
0.6
8.8
1.7
0.3
8.6
2.2
1.0
8.6
1.4
1.2
8.5
2.2
1.8
8.5
2.4
2.1
8.4
1.5
1.1
8.2
1.6
1.1
8.1
1.9
-1.3
5.3
-0.5
-1.2
-0.1
2.7
3.6
0.4
2.2
3.6
2.2
4.6
1.8
-2.1
-0.5
1.7
-2.6
6.4
-0.7
-1.2
-0.4
1.4
3.2
-0.1
2.0
3.1
2.4
4.1
0.7
-2.3
-0.3
1.8
-2.6
5.2
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
1.9
3.2
1.4
1.7
2.4
2.1
4.2
0.5
-2.5
-0.2
1.4
0.4
4.7
-0.3
-1.3
0.4
1.8
1.9
0.4
1.2
2.2
1.8
4.5
0.1
-2.9
-0.6
1.5
-0.2
3.7
0.8
-0.3
1.5
1.8
1.5
1.3
0.5
2.1
2.1
3.3
0.4
-0.8
-0.4
1.6
0.4
4.7
1.3
-0.5
2.3
2.6
1.5
1.6
-0.4
2.5
2.1
2.6
0.6
0.5
-0.3
1.5
0.2
7.0
1.8
-1.2
3.6
1.8
1.1
0.2
-0.5
2.8
1.5
2.0
0.5
1.3
-0.1
1.8
0.0
8.0
2.0
0.2
3.0
2.0
1.5
0.6
0.0
3.6
1.2
1.6
0.8
1.2
0.6
1.9
-0.3
9.4
1.7
-0.2
2.8
2.6
1.8
0.5
0.1
4.1
1.2
1.6
0.1
0.1
0.6
1.9
0.5
10.6
1.1
-0.4
2.0
2.8
2.0
0.4
0.4
4.2
1.2
1.6
1.0
-0.6
0.8
38131.6 38222.2 38313.3 38404.8 38496.8 38588.9 38681.2 38773.8 38866.6 38959.7 39053.0 39146.6
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
23.0
22.9
22.9
22.8
22.8
22.5
22.2
21.9
21.7
21.4
21.2
20.9
Housing
Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Th
Consumer Prices
(%Ch)
12
2.4
-1.0
6.2
0.4
-0.3
0.8
3.0
3.8
1.6
2.2
4.6
2.7
4.5
1.4
-1.7
-0.8
1794.0
3.0
1548.6
1.9
1342.6
0.8
2058.8
3.5
1790.3
2.7
62.0
30.2
31.8
61.8
35.9
25.9
71.4
35.6
35.8
68.4
34.5
33.9
72.7
35.5
37.2
69.8
36.1
33.7
75.5
40.2
35.3
84.3
46.0
38.3
91.5
50.4
41.1
98.8
54.9
43.9
109.1
60.0
49.1
118.4
67.7
50.7
2.1
2.5
1.8
1.6
1.7
0.9
1.3
1.6
1.2
1.5
1.6
1.6
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for California

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
Personal Income (Annual Rate, Bil. $)
1996.9
Calif. (%Ch)
5.0
1667.2
(%Ch)
3.4
1441.7
(%Ch)
3.4
2280.4
Calif. (%Ch)
5.3
1909.8
Calif. (%Ch)
3.6
2021.3
5.0
1680.3
3.3
1452.8
3.3
2308.8
5.3
1926.2
3.6
2053.2
5.3
1698.5
3.4
1467.9
3.5
2340.1
5.3
1942.6
3.6

Employment
1.6
1.6
Labor Force
1.0
0.9
7.9
7.8
Total Nonfarm
California
2.0
Mining
1.0
Construction
11.3
Manufacturing
0.3
Nondurable Goods
-0.5
Durable Goods
0.8
3.0
Wholesale Trade
2.1
Retail Trade
0.3
0.2
4.3
1.3
1.4
Information
2.6
Federal Gov't.
-1.0
1.0
Population (Ths.)
(%Ch)
Net Migration (Ths.)
Housing
Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Th
Consumer Prices
(%Ch)
2.0
1.5
12.0
0.6
-0.3
1.2
3.2
2.3
0.3
0.1
4.2
1.6
1.2
2.1
-1.1
1.0
2080.2
5.4
1713.4
3.6
1480.7
3.5
2370.9
5.3
1959.6
3.5
2108.4
5.6
1729.4
3.7
1495.8
3.8
2405.0
5.5
1979.6
3.7
2138.0
5.8
1746.2
3.9
1511.2
4.0
2436.6
5.5
1997.6
3.7
2171.3
5.7
1765.3
3.9
1524.5
3.9
2467.3
5.4
2013.6
3.7
2201.3
5.8
1781.7
4.0
1539.8
4.0
2498.1
5.4
2030.4
3.6
2231.0
5.8
1797.6
3.9
1555.4
4.0
2530.2
5.2
2048.2
3.5
2260.6
5.7
1813.2
3.8
1570.7
3.9
2562.5
5.2
2066.0
3.4
2292.0
5.6
1829.1
3.6
1579.5
3.6
2593.5
5.1
2081.4
3.4
2320.7
5.4
1843.7
3.5
1593.0
3.5
2624.7
5.1
2097.9
3.3
1.6
1.0
7.6
1.8
1.0
7.4
1.8
1.0
7.2
1.9
0.9
6.9
1.9
0.9
6.7
1.8
0.9
6.5
1.7
0.8
6.3
1.7
0.8
6.1
1.5
0.8
6.1
1.3
0.7
6.0
2.0
1.9
12.1
0.6
-0.3
1.2
3.3
2.4
0.4
0.2
3.6
1.8
1.0
2.6
-1.8
1.1
2.0
1.8
11.8
0.5
-0.3
1.1
3.4
2.6
0.5
0.2
3.3
2.1
1.0
2.4
-1.9
1.1
2.0
2.2
11.1
0.4
-0.4
0.9
3.4
2.7
0.6
0.0
3.4
2.3
1.2
2.0
-2.0
1.1
2.0
1.9
10.0
0.3
-0.6
0.7
3.3
2.6
0.6
-0.3
3.3
2.4
1.3
2.4
-2.1
1.2
2.0
1.5
9.2
0.3
-0.5
0.7
3.2
2.5
0.7
-0.6
3.2
2.2
1.5
3.0
-1.7
1.2
1.9
1.2
8.3
0.4
-0.3
0.8
3.1
2.3
0.6
-0.8
2.9
2.1
1.5
3.1
-1.7
1.2
1.7
0.6
7.0
0.4
-0.1
0.6
2.9
2.2
0.6
-0.9
2.5
2.1
1.5
2.7
-1.6
1.2
1.6
0.6
5.8
0.4
0.2
0.5
2.8
2.0
0.4
-0.9
2.3
2.2
1.4
2.3
-1.6
1.3
1.5
0.7
4.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
2.6
1.9
0.3
-0.8
2.2
2.1
1.4
1.9
-1.7
1.4
1.4
1.0
3.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
2.4
1.8
0.2
-0.8
2.1
2.1
1.2
1.6
-1.7
1.5
39240.5 39334.7 39429.2 39523.9 39618.8 39714.1 39809.6 39905.3 40000.9 40096.3 40191.6 40286.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
20.7
20.5
20.2
20.0
19.8
19.5
19.3
19.0
18.9
18.8
18.8
18.7
131.4
76.6
54.9
140.5
83.0
57.6
146.9
88.7
58.2
151.3
93.1
58.2
153.7
96.0
57.7
154.9
97.0
57.9
157.0
97.5
59.5
156.9
97.7
59.3
156.6
97.7
58.9
157.9
98.4
59.5
159.6
98.8
60.8
160.1
99.1
60.9
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.0
13
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 3. Employment Quarterly

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2
California Payroll Employment (Thousands)
Total Nonfarm
Manufacturing
Durable Goods
14439.1 14520.1 14560.0 14603.4 14692.3 14721.0 14776.0 14838.7 14907.6 14978.7 15050.7 15124.7
1253.9
1253.2
1245.2
1247.4
1253.2
1249.7
1255.3
1263.2
1275.7
1274.5
1276.5
1277.5
783.1
784.6
780.1
781.3
783.6
787.4
791.9
799.2
811.7
811.4
813.7
815.3
Wood Products
19.6
19.5
19.4
19.2
19.8
20.1
20.4
21.2
22.2
23.1
24.0
25.3
Computer & Electronics
270.9
270.9
269.9
270.6
272.2
271.7
271.9
271.7
278.5
275.5
273.7
271.8
Transportation Equipment
103.1
103.0
101.7
101.3
99.9
100.0
100.8
101.5
102.1
102.6
103.1
103.6
Nondurables
470.8
468.6
465.1
466.1
469.6
462.3
463.5
464.0
463.9
463.1
462.7
462.2
Foods
149.4
146.3
145.3
148.4
152.3
147.5
148.6
149.4
149.8
149.7
150.1
150.2
Non-Manufacturing
13185.3 13266.9 13314.9 13356.0 13439.2 13471.2 13520.7 13575.5 13631.9 13704.2 13774.2 13847.2
Mining
30.3
29.5
29.8
29.5
29.5
29.6
29.7
29.6
29.6
29.6
29.6
29.8
Construction
588.8
601.0
615.3
618.8
619.6
629.4
638.0
648.0
663.2
679.9
697.8
716.9
Transportation, Warehouse & Util.
488.6
492.0
493.0
491.7
498.2
500.7
501.9
504.7
507.2
511.0
514.9
518.7
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Information
Prof. & Bus. Services
678.9
687.6
691.8
694.9
700.7
700.4
702.3
705.4
708.1
711.2
715.3
719.3
1563.6
1575.8
1561.9
1559.9
1585.1
1581.6
1582.3
1585.2
1588.6
1591.2
1590.2
1591.4
429.9
434.0
434.9
433.5
432.0
434.5
436.5
436.1
434.4
438.0
436.9
440.3
2253.5
2263.7
2283.3
2297.2
2308.2
2313.3
2331.2
2354.4
2373.4
2396.9
2426.1
2452.4
Admin. & Support
932.4
942.4
949.9
955.0
962.7
967.3
980.6
997.3
1011.3
1029.6
1054.1
1074.3
Prof. Sci. & Tech.
1118.9
1118.3
1128.9
1137.4
1137.9
1139.0
1144.2
1151.7
1157.4
1163.5
1168.7
1175.7
202.2
203.0
204.5
204.8
207.6
207.1
206.3
205.5
204.7
203.8
203.2
202.5
778.7
779.9
784.2
788.6
791.9
789.6
788.3
785.3
787.6
789.6
789.0
788.7
252.8
255.2
254.7
256.7
260.0
261.0
261.1
262.6
264.1
265.8
267.0
268.2
Mgmt. of Co.
Real Estate & Rent
Finance & Insurance
Education & Health Service
Education Services
Health Services
Other Services
Government
Federal Gov't.
14
525.9
524.7
529.5
531.9
531.9
528.6
527.2
522.7
523.5
523.9
522.0
520.5
1886.7
1903.7
1904.3
1911.5
1927.3
1937.5
1944.1
1951.4
1955.6
1960.4
1968.3
1975.3
339.2
343.4
343.2
346.0
351.7
351.5
350.3
349.5
348.1
346.1
344.7
343.3
1547.5
1560.3
1561.1
1565.5
1575.6
1586.0
1593.8
1601.9
1607.5
1614.2
1623.7
1632.0
1609.5
1619.5
1643.8
1661.0
1677.3
1692.4
1698.0
1704.3
1711.4
1720.1
1726.0
1731.1
507.6
510.0
506.8
506.9
511.5
512.2
512.8
513.1
513.1
511.8
511.0
510.2
2369.0
2370.2
2366.0
2362.3
2357.8
2349.9
2355.6
2357.9
2359.8
2364.6
2369.2
2373.1
248.7
249.3
246.6
244.4
242.6
241.9
244.8
245.6
245.7
244.9
245.1
244.1
2120.3
2120.9
2119.3
2117.9
2115.3
2108.0
2110.8
2112.3
2114.1
2119.6
2124.1
2129.0
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 3. Employment Quarterly

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
Total Nonfarm
Manufacturing
Durable Goods
Wood Products
15200.9 15282.3 15352.6 15430.9 15510.1 15587.7 15654.2 15717.5 15776.8 15834.9 15883.2 15930.6
1279.9
1282.8
1284.5
1284.4
1285.3
1286.0
1287.8
1289.3
1290.2
1290.8
1291.6
1294.1
818.2
821.1
823.3
823.8
825.5
826.9
828.8
830.0
830.9
831.0
831.4
833.6
26.5
27.7
28.6
29.3
29.6
29.7
29.8
29.6
29.4
29.1
28.8
28.7
270.4
268.9
267.2
265.7
264.9
264.4
265.6
266.9
268.3
269.7
271.2
273.1
104.1
104.2
104.8
104.6
104.5
104.3
103.6
103.0
102.5
102.0
101.8
101.8
Nondurables
461.8
461.6
461.1
460.6
459.8
459.1
459.0
459.3
459.4
459.8
460.2
460.5
Foods
150.4
150.8
151.0
151.2
151.2
151.3
151.6
152.1
152.5
153.1
153.7
154.2
Non-Manufacturing
Mining
13920.9 13999.5 14068.1 14146.5 14224.7 14301.7 14366.4 14428.2 14486.6 14544.1 14591.6 14636.5
29.9
30.0
30.2
30.3
30.5
30.6
30.6
30.7
30.7
30.7
30.8
31.0
Construction
738.3
761.2
782.1
801.6
820.3
837.3
854.3
867.8
877.7
885.7
892.3
897.2
Transportation, Warehouse & Util.
522.7
527.4
531.8
536.1
540.5
544.7
548.9
552.8
556.4
559.9
563.5
566.3
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Information
723.2
727.9
732.7
737.7
742.5
746.8
750.8
754.8
758.6
762.0
765.3
768.3
1593.2
1595.3
1596.8
1599.4
1602.3
1605.4
1607.4
1609.7
1611.2
1612.3
1612.6
1613.6
445.7
447.3
448.2
450.8
454.4
458.0
461.8
464.7
466.9
468.5
470.7
472.1
2474.6
2496.5
2513.0
2533.6
2557.8
2579.4
2593.2
2606.5
2622.0
2638.0
2649.6
2660.3
Admin. & Support
1090.9
1106.2
1118.6
1134.8
1154.5
1171.6
1181.3
1189.7
1201.9
1214.5
1224.0
1232.3
Prof. Sci. & Tech.
1181.7
1188.8
1193.0
1197.5
1202.0
1206.7
1210.8
1215.8
1219.4
1223.1
1225.3
1228.1
202.0
201.5
201.4
201.3
201.2
201.1
201.1
200.9
200.7
200.4
200.3
199.9
789.5
790.6
790.5
790.4
789.7
788.2
786.1
783.9
782.6
780.9
779.6
777.8
269.9
271.9
273.9
275.3
276.3
277.5
278.6
279.0
279.3
279.7
280.4
280.8
Mgmt. of Co.
Real Estate & Rent
Finance & Insurance
Education Services
Health Services
Other Services
Government
Federal Gov't.
519.6
518.7
516.6
515.1
513.4
510.7
507.6
504.9
503.3
501.3
499.2
497.0
1981.5
1991.1
2003.5
2016.9
2026.6
2037.9
2046.7
2059.2
2070.0
2082.5
2089.0
2102.0
341.9
340.8
340.0
339.3
339.0
338.8
339.3
339.4
339.7
339.8
340.4
340.4
1639.6
1650.3
1663.5
1677.6
1687.6
1699.1
1707.5
1719.9
1730.3
1742.6
1748.6
1761.7
1734.9
1740.4
1743.7
1749.0
1755.1
1762.6
1769.3
1774.7
1781.0
1786.9
1793.4
1795.5
509.4
508.5
508.3
507.9
507.7
507.5
508.7
509.1
509.6
509.7
510.1
509.9
2378.1
2383.4
2387.4
2392.7
2397.5
2403.2
2408.6
2414.3
2419.9
2427.0
2434.8
2442.4
243.2
242.3
240.6
239.4
238.2
237.1
236.4
235.3
234.3
233.3
232.3
231.4
2134.9
2141.0
2146.9
2153.3
2159.2
2166.1
2172.2
2179.0
2185.6
2193.7
2202.5
2211.0
15
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 4. Employment Annual

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

Total Nonfarm
15060.9 15174.1 14983.5 14082.7 13936.6 14101.9 14401.4 14644.2 14875.3 15164.6 15470.3 15745.9 15952.5
Manufacturing
1489.9 1463.9 1425.4 1281.7 1242.1 1248.0 1253.5 1248.9 1267.2 1279.2 1285.1 1289.5 1295.3
Durable Goods
Wood Products
947.2
927.7
899.8
798.9
771.2
778.8
783.1
783.1
803.5
817.1
824.9
830.2
834.6
24.9
24.6
24.0
19.7
19.0
19.8
20.0
19.7
19.9
20.0
20.4
20.9
21.2
308.1
304.0
300.0
278.6
271.9
275.2
271.8
271.1
274.4
271.2
265.5
267.6
274.1
130.0
126.8
123.7
112.9
106.7
102.7
102.5
100.7
101.8
103.7
104.5
102.8
101.8
Nondurables
542.7
536.2
525.6
482.8
470.8
469.2
470.4
465.8
463.6
462.1
460.2
459.4
460.7
Foods
151.1
152.9
153.0
147.9
147.0
149.5
149.3
148.4
149.4
150.4
151.2
152.3
154.4
Non-Manufacturing
Mining
Construction
13571.0 13710.2 13558.1 12801.0 12694.5 12853.9 13147.9 13395.3 13608.1 13885.5 14185.3 14456.3 14657.2
25.0
26.6
28.7
26.1
26.8
28.8
30.0
29.6
29.6
29.8
30.4
30.7
31.0
933.5
893.1
788.3
622.1
558.8
561.2
588.9
620.8
657.3
728.5
810.3
871.4
898.9
Trans., Warehouse & Util.
496.3
507.7
504.7
474.2
466.4
474.6
486.3
495.9
506.2
520.9
538.3
554.5
566.4
Wholesale Trade
700.3
715.4
703.4
645.1
644.0
658.2
676.9
697.0
706.8
721.4
739.9
756.5
769.8
Retail Trade
Information
1680.4 1689.5 1640.9 1522.3 1513.9 1536.6 1564.4 1572.1 1586.8 1592.5 1601.0 1610.1 1613.6
465.9
470.7
475.4
440.4
427.7
428.8
430.4
433.7
436.3
442.6
452.9
465.4
473.3
2241.9 2264.7 2239.6 2059.6 2073.2 2132.4 2237.2 2300.5 2364.0 2462.4 2545.9 2614.9 2667.8
Admin. & Support
1002.9
Prof. Sci. & Tech.
1026.4 1060.1 1080.0 1014.1 1016.5 1051.2 1105.3 1135.8 1154.2 1178.7 1199.8 1217.3 1229.0
Mgmt. of Co.
Real Estate & Rent
Finance & Insurance
Education Services
Health Services
Other Services
Government
Federal Gov't.
16
997.4
952.3
848.2
861.3
881.9
930.0
958.7 1004.7 1081.4 1144.9 1196.9 1239.0
212.7
207.3
207.3
197.3
195.4
199.3
202.0
206.0
205.1
202.3
201.3
200.8
199.8
927.9
896.7
841.9
782.9
760.1
762.1
774.9
788.6
787.7
789.4
789.7
783.4
777.2
288.5
283.6
275.9
254.7
248.2
247.2
251.4
258.1
263.4
269.3
275.7
279.1
280.8
639.4
613.1
566.0
528.1
511.9
514.9
523.5
530.5
524.3
520.2
514.0
504.3
496.4
1621.5 1677.9 1732.8 1759.8 1788.1 1836.0 1879.8 1920.1 1952.8 1979.1 2021.2 2064.6 2105.7
277.7
289.1
300.5
304.5
309.7
326.1
336.0
348.1
348.5
342.7
339.3
339.5
340.3
1343.8 1388.8 1432.3 1455.3 1478.4 1509.9 1543.8 1572.0 1604.3 1636.4 1681.9 1725.1 1765.5
1518.9 1560.2 1573.0 1503.0 1501.2 1535.6 1599.1 1668.6 1708.4 1733.1 1752.6 1778.0 1798.1
506.9
512.5
511.6
485.8
484.7
493.7
506.1
509.4
512.7
509.8
507.9
509.3
509.7
2452.6 2495.1 2517.9 2479.8 2449.7 2405.9 2373.8 2359.0 2359.5 2375.9 2395.2 2417.5 2445.8
248.8
247.1
248.3
251.1
268.3
255.2
250.0
243.9
245.3
243.7
238.8
234.8
230.9
2203.8 2248.0 2269.6 2228.7 2181.3 2150.7 2123.8 2115.1 2114.2 2132.3 2156.4 2182.6 2214.9
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 5. Personal Income - Quarterly

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2
Billions Current Dollars
Personal Income
1764.5 1833.1 1777.7 1794.0 1814.1 1831.8 1857.5 1878.5 1901.6 1924.6 1950.7 1973.5
Wages & Salaries
895.7
939.1
908.8
915.9
922.2
931.3
940.2
951.7
963.5
975.5
988.0 1001.0
Other Labor Income
221.8
225.5
222.2
223.2
223.6
223.8
226.9
228.5
231.2
234.1
237.9
240.1
Nonfarm
139.7
143.1
145.9
147.8
149.4
150.6
152.6
155.1
156.7
158.7
160.9
163.9
Farm
11.3
11.1
9.7
8.6
9.8
10.1
10.1
9.4
9.4
9.3
9.3
9.3
Property Income
340.6
359.9
347.1
357.6
365.6
372.9
379.3
384.8
392.0
398.2
403.9
408.3
Transfer Payments
272.9
277.0
279.5
277.3
280.2
281.5
290.5
292.5
294.1
295.7
303.0
304.7
Billions 2005 $
Personal Income
1533.0 1586.2 1534.1 1548.6 1558.5 1571.0 1587.7 1599.1 1612.6 1626.5 1641.9 1654.7
Wages & Salaries
778.2
812.6
784.3
790.6
792.3
798.7
803.7
810.2
817.1
824.3
831.6
839.3
Other Labor Income
192.7
195.1
191.7
192.7
192.1
191.9
194.0
194.5
196.1
197.8
200.2
201.3
Nonfarm
121.3
123.8
125.9
127.6
128.3
129.2
130.5
132.0
132.9
134.1
135.4
137.4
Farm
9.8
9.6
8.4
7.4
8.4
8.6
8.6
8.0
7.9
7.9
7.8
7.8
Property Income
296.0
311.4
299.5
308.7
314.1
319.8
324.2
327.6
332.4
336.5
340.0
342.3
Transfer Payments
237.1
239.7
241.2
239.4
240.8
241.5
248.3
249.0
249.4
249.9
255.1
255.5
New Passenger Car & Truck Reg. 1520.8 1619.6 1629.7 1719.4 1746.0 1758.7 1767.6 1789.7 1811.1 1838.1 1859.8 1880.5
Retail Sales (Billions $)
491.6
504.3
499.7
503.7
509.9
511.9
515.5
521.2
527.4
532.7
537.5
543.3
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)
427.1
436.4
431.2
434.8
438.1
439.0
440.6
443.7
447.3
450.2
452.4
455.6
17
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 5. Personal Income - Quarterly

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
Personal Income
Wages & Salaries
1996.9 2021.3 2053.2 2080.2 2108.4 2138.0 2171.3 2201.3 2231.0 2260.6 2292.0 2320.7
1014.2 1027.2 1040.6 1053.8 1067.4 1081.0 1095.3 1108.8 1122.2 1135.7 1149.3 1162.4
Other Labor Income
243.2
246.5
251.2
254.0
257.5
261.1
266.0
268.9
272.4
275.9
280.5
283.4
Nonfarm
166.4
168.8
171.3
174.2
176.0
177.9
179.3
181.5
182.7
184.8
186.2
188.8
Farm
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.2
9.3
9.3
9.4
9.4
Property Income
412.9
418.6
425.6
433.5
442.4
452.8
463.7
474.2
484.5
493.7
503.8
512.5
Transfer Payments
306.3
308.2
317.8
319.6
321.5
323.6
329.8
332.4
335.0
338.0
344.1
347.0
Billions 2005 $
Personal Income
1667.2 1680.3 1698.5 1713.4 1729.4 1746.2 1765.3 1781.7 1797.6 1813.2 1829.1 1843.7
Wages & Salaries
846.7
853.9
860.9
868.0
875.6
882.9
890.5
897.4
904.2
910.9
917.1
923.5
Other Labor Income
203.1
204.9
207.8
209.2
211.2
213.2
216.3
217.6
219.5
221.3
223.9
225.1
Nonfarm
138.9
140.3
141.7
143.5
144.4
145.3
145.8
146.9
147.2
148.2
148.6
150.0
Farm
7.7
7.7
7.7
7.6
7.6
7.6
7.6
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
Property Income
344.8
348.0
352.1
357.1
362.9
369.8
377.0
383.8
390.4
396.0
402.1
407.1
Transfer Payments
255.7
256.2
262.9
263.3
263.7
264.3
268.1
269.1
269.9
271.1
274.6
275.7
New Passenger Car & Truck Reg. 1902.7 1931.8 1960.1 1970.6 1982.9 2008.4 2015.8 2026.4 2024.2 2026.2 2018.4 2017.9
550.1
556.3
562.4
568.6
574.9
581.6
586.6
593.0
599.7
606.4
611.2
617.8
459.2
462.5
465.3
468.3
471.6
475.0
476.9
480.0
483.2
486.4
487.8
490.8
18
CALIFORNIA TABLES
Table 6. Personal Income - Annual

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

Personal Income
1499.5 1564.4 1596.3 1536.4 1579.1 1683.2 1768.0 1804.4 1890.6 1985.6 2095.0 2216.0 2335.1
Wages & Salaries
791.5
834.4
842.9
799.5
814.5
849.7
899.7
919.5
957.7 1007.6 1060.7 1115.5 1169.1
Other Labor Income
194.6
200.7
204.8
197.1
203.9
219.1
222.7
223.2
230.2
241.9
255.9
270.8
285.0
Nonfarm
146.6
131.1
127.7
123.0
124.3
133.1
140.1
148.4
155.8
165.0
174.8
182.1
189.9
4.9
7.5
5.2
5.7
6.3
10.5
10.7
9.5
9.5
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.5
Property Income
Farm
301.4
321.4
330.2
292.1
291.1
323.9
343.8
360.8
388.6
410.9
438.6
479.0
516.7
Transfer Payments
181.6
192.1
210.3
239.9
261.0
261.3
269.6
279.7
293.2
305.5
320.6
333.8
348.4
Billions 2005 $
Personal Income
Wages & Salaries
1460.3 1486.4 1471.8 1417.6 1433.1 1492.0 1538.6 1553.0 1606.5 1661.0 1721.9 1789.4 1851.0
770.9
792.8
777.2
737.6
739.2
753.2
783.0
791.5
813.8
842.9
871.8
900.8
926.8
Other Labor Income
189.5
190.7
188.8
181.9
185.1
194.2
193.8
192.1
195.6
202.4
210.4
218.7
226.0
Nonfarm
142.8
124.5
117.8
113.4
112.8
118.0
121.9
127.7
132.4
138.0
143.7
147.0
150.5
4.7
7.1
4.8
5.3
5.7
9.3
9.3
8.2
8.1
7.8
7.6
7.5
7.5
Farm
Property Income
293.5
305.4
304.4
269.6
264.2
287.0
299.2
310.5
330.2
343.8
360.5
386.8
409.5
Transfer Payments
176.9
182.5
193.9
221.3
236.8
231.6
234.6
240.7
249.2
255.6
263.5
269.6
276.2
New Passenger Car & Truck Reg. 2086.8 1871.1 1401.3 1036.2 1105.8 1223.0 1529.2 1713.5 1801.7 1893.7 1980.5 2023.1 2017.9
449.1
455.0
442.9
407.2
427.5
461.5
489.2
506.3
524.2
546.8
571.9
596.4
621.2
437.4
432.3
408.4
375.7
387.9
409.1
425.8
435.8
445.4
457.4
470.0
481.6
492.4
19
CHARTS
CALIFORNIA CHARTS
California Real Personal Income

(percent change from one year ago)
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
California Real Gross State Product

10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
California and U.S. Unemployment Rates

(percent)
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
21
CALIFORNIA CHARTS
California Total Nonfarm Employment

(Thousands)
16,000
15,500
15,000
14,500
14,000
13,500
13,000
12,500
12,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
California Construction Employment

(Thouands)
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
California Manufacturing Employment

(Thousands)
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
22
CALIFORNIA CHARTS
California Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Employment (Thousands)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
California Financial Activities Employment

(Thouands)
1,000
950
900
850
800
750
700
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
California Professional and Business

2,700
2,500
2,300
2,100
1,900
1,700
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
23
CALIFORNIA CHARTS
California Education and Health Services

2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
California Information Employment (Thousands)

650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
California State and Local Government

2,400
2,300
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
24
CALIFORNIA CHARTS
California Federal Government Employment

(Thousands)
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
California Housing Starts

(Thousands)
250
200
150
100
50
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
California New Passenger & Light Truck

Registrations (Thousands)
2,500
2,300
2,100
1,900
1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
25
METROS
Fresno MSA
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
Nonfarm employment in the Fresno Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA) will continue to grow at a steady
rate of 2.0% for 2015. The first quarter of 2015 is expected
to have a 1.8% increase in employment followed by 2.0%
growth in the second quarter. The leading sectors in job
growth for 2015 are predicted to be the Construction and
Mining sector and the Professional and Business Services
sector with 11.4% and 4.2% increases, respectively.
Employment is expected to increase at a modest rate in all
sectors with the exception of the Other Services sector and
the Federal Government, which will suffer job losses.
Real personal income in Fresno is expected to grow

3.5% in 2015 to $29.8 Billion. 2016 is anticipated to bring
additional 3.9% growth, increasing real personal income to
$30.9 Billion.
The Fresno MSAs population will increase 1.2% in 2015
and 1.3% in 2016. Along with the increase in employment
comes an increase in the labor force in 2015 of 1.0%. The
labor force is projected to maintain a 1.2% growth for 2016
and 2017. The unemployment rate in 2015 is expected to
decrease to 12.1% from 12.8% in 2014. Unemployment
is expected to continue decreasing every year for the
foreseeable future, declining to a 9.9% in 2018.
Fresno Real Personal Income

Fresno Payroll Employment

(Thousands)
10%
340
8%
320
6%
300
280
4%
260
2%
240
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
220
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-2%
Fresno and California Unemployment Rates

(percent)
20%
18%
Fresno Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011

(California = 100)
200
180
16%
160
14%
140
12%
10%
120
100
80
8%
60
6%
40
4%
20
2%
0
Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
27
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO
Quarterly Outlook for Fresno

January 2014 Forecast
2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2
Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)
Total Personal Income
31.7
32.8
31.8
32.2
32.6
32.8
33.3
33.6
34.1
34.5
35.0
35.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8
7.4
2.0
2.6
2.9
0.1
4.5
4.5
4.6
5.0
5.0
5.1
Wages and Salaries
13.8
14.4
14.0
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.5
14.7
14.8
15.0
15.2
Nonwage Income
17.8
18.4
17.8
18.1
18.3
18.5
18.9
19.1
19.4
19.6
20.0
20.2
Real Personal Income (2005$)
27.5
28.4
27.5
27.8
28.0
28.2
28.4
28.6
28.9
29.1
29.4
29.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.2
5.7
0.6
1.6
1.7
-0.8
3.5
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.5
Per Capita Income (Ths.)
33.3
34.5
33.4
33.7
34.0
34.2
34.6
34.9
35.2
35.6
36.0
36.3
Real Per Capita Income (2005$)
29.0
29.8
28.8
29.1
29.2
29.4
29.6
29.7
29.9
30.1
30.3
30.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths.)
48.8
50.3
49.0
49.2
49.2
49.5
49.6
49.9
50.2
50.5
50.8
51.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.2
6.5
0.6
1.4
0.9
-1.7
1.3
1.5
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.5
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)
Total Non-Farm Employment
282.3
285.3
284.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.5
1.6
1.0
Manufacturing
23.0
23.1
22.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
-2.7
-2.3
-3.5
Nonmanufacturing
259.3
262.2
261.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.8
2.0
1.4
Construction & Mining
12.5
12.7
12.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
6.5
9.8
6.4
Trade, Trans, & Utilities
57.4
57.7
58.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.2
-0.6
2.6
Wholesale Trade
12.7
13.0
13.3
Retail Trade
33.2
33.0
33.4
Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
11.5
11.7
12.1
Information
3.5
3.5
3.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.9
1.8
-0.5
12.8
13.0
13.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.4
2.6
3.2
Prof & Business Services
27.7
28.8
28.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
6.3
4.4
Educ & Health Services
42.8
43.1
42.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6
2.3
-1.7
28.1
28.5
28.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.5
5.7
2.8
Other Services
10.6
10.6
10.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.4
2.8
2.5
Federal Government
10.1
10.2
10.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.3
-0.6
-2.6
State & Local Government
53.8
54.0
53.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
-2.5
-1.0
-0.6
Other Economic Indicators
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate)
Single-Family
Multifamily
28
949.7
0.7
442.6
-0.2
15.1
1847
1539
308
951.4
0.7
441.1
-0.6
14.6
2004
1757
247
953.2
0.7
442.3
-0.1
14.2
1985
1772
213
285.7
1.1
22.5
-5.6
263.2
1.8
13.0
7.5
58.4
1.4
13.3
33.1
12.0
3.5
0.0
12.9
1.5
30.0
9.9
42.3
-1.2
28.7
2.7
10.6
0.0
9.9
-1.3
53.9
-0.2
287.5
1.8
22.6
-2.0
265.0
2.2
12.9
3.6
58.2
1.3
13.2
33.1
11.9
3.5
0.4
12.9
0.6
30.8
11.2
42.6
-0.3
29.1
3.5
10.8
1.9
10.0
-1.3
54.2
0.7
287.3
0.7
21.6
-6.8
265.8
1.4
12.9
1.6
58.3
1.0
13.3
33.2
11.9
3.4
-1.8
12.7
-1.9
31.5
9.4
42.5
-1.4
29.5
3.5
10.8
1.6
9.9
-2.9
54.1
0.2
288.2
1.4
21.7
-5.2
266.5
1.9
13.1
2.2
58.3
-0.8
13.2
33.2
11.9
3.4
-2.0
12.7
-2.4
31.8
10.3
42.6
1.2
29.6
4.2
10.8
2.2
10.1
1.3
54.2
1.1
289.2
1.2
21.9
-3.0
267.3
1.6
13.3
1.9
58.2
-0.4
13.1
33.2
11.9
3.4
-3.4
12.7
-1.9
32.1
6.9
42.8
1.3
29.6
3.3
10.8
2.1
10.2
2.9
54.3
0.8
290.4
1.0
22.1
-1.9
268.3
1.3
13.6
5.4
58.2
-0.1
13.1
33.3
11.8
3.4
-3.1
12.7
-1.3
32.3
4.8
42.9
0.7
29.7
2.2
10.8
0.5
10.2
2.3
54.4
0.4
291.9
1.6
22.1
2.5
269.8
1.5
14.0
8.3
58.5
0.3
13.2
33.3
12.0
3.4
0.3
12.7
-0.1
32.6
3.4
43.1
1.3
29.9
1.2
10.8
0.3
10.2
2.6
54.6
0.8
293.5
1.8
22.2
2.2
271.3
1.8
14.4
9.9
58.8
1.0
13.4
33.2
12.2
3.4
-0.3
12.7
0.0
33.0
3.8
43.3
1.7
30.0
1.4
10.8
0.0
10.2
0.4
54.8
1.0
295.0
2.0
22.2
1.6
272.8
2.0
14.8
11.1
59.0
1.4
13.5
33.3
12.3
3.4
0.9
12.7
0.6
33.4
4.1
43.6
1.8
30.1
1.5
10.8
-0.2
10.1
-0.7
54.9
1.2
955.0
0.8
440.4
-0.7
13.0
1954
1871
83
957.0
0.8
438.9
-0.8
12.5
2471
2166
305
959.1
0.8
436.7
-1.0
12.8
2882
2081
801
961.4
0.9
441.7
-0.1
12.8
2627
2268
359
963.7
0.9
442.6
0.5
12.8
2967
2528
439
966.4
1.0
444.0
1.2
12.8
3192
2675
517
969.1
1.0
445.6
2.0
12.9
3399
2799
600
972.0
1.1
446.4
1.1
12.5
3649
2941
708
975.0
1.2
447.4
1.1
12.2
3951
3198
753
Quarterly Outlook for Fresno

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
35.8
36.2
36.8
37.3
37.9
38.4
39.0
39.6
40.2
40.7
41.3
41.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.8
5.7
Wages and Salaries
15.4
15.6
15.7
15.9
16.1
16.3
16.5
16.7
16.9
17.1
17.3
17.5
Nonwage Income
20.4
20.7
21.1
21.4
21.7
22.1
22.5
22.9
23.3
23.6
24.0
24.4
29.9
30.1
30.5
30.8
31.1
31.4
31.7
32.1
32.4
32.7
33.0
33.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.5
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.9
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.7
36.6
36.9
37.4
37.8
38.2
38.7
39.2
39.6
40.0
40.5
40.9
41.4
30.5
30.7
31.0
31.1
31.3
31.6
31.8
32.1
32.3
32.5
32.7
32.9
51.5
51.9
52.2
52.5
52.9
53.2
53.6
54.0
54.4
54.8
55.2
55.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.9
3.0
296.6
298.4
299.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
2.2
2.2
Manufacturing
22.3
22.3
22.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.6
1.0
0.9
Nonmanufacturing
274.3
276.0
277.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2
2.3
2.3
15.2
15.7
16.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
11.9
12.6
12.6
59.3
59.6
59.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9
1.8
1.7
Wholesale Trade
13.6
13.7
13.8
Retail Trade
33.3
33.4
33.5
12.3
12.4
12.6
Information
3.5
3.5
3.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.7
2.3
2.9
12.7
12.8
12.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.4
0.5
0.6
33.7
34.1
34.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.3
4.4
3.9
43.8
44.0
44.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9
2.1
2.4
30.2
30.3
30.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
1.3
1.3
Other Services
10.8
10.8
10.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
Federal Government
10.1
10.0
9.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.6
-1.5
-2.4
55.1
55.3
55.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
1.4
1.4
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
978.0
1.2
448.7
1.0
12.0
4300
3470
830
981.2
1.2
450.0
1.0
11.8
4506
3620
886
984.4
1.3
451.4
1.1
11.6
4636
3723
914
301.6
2.2
22.4
0.8
279.2
2.4
16.6
12.3
60.1
1.9
13.9
33.6
12.7
3.5
2.6
12.8
0.6
34.6
3.6
44.7
2.7
30.5
1.3
10.8
-0.3
9.9
-2.4
55.8
1.5
303.2
2.2
22.4
0.7
280.8
2.4
17.0
11.5
60.4
2.0
14.0
33.7
12.8
3.6
2.3
12.8
0.4
34.9
3.6
45.0
2.8
30.6
1.6
10.8
-0.3
9.8
-2.3
56.0
1.5
304.9
2.2
22.4
0.5
282.4
2.3
17.3
10.2
60.7
1.9
14.1
33.8
12.9
3.6
2.6
12.8
-0.1
35.2
3.5
45.3
2.9
30.8
1.7
10.8
-0.2
9.8
-2.3
56.2
1.5
306.4
2.2
22.5
0.5
283.9
2.3
17.7
9.5
61.0
1.9
14.2
33.8
13.0
3.6
3.1
12.8
-0.2
35.5
3.5
45.5
2.6
30.9
1.9
10.8
0.2
9.8
-1.8
56.4
1.5
307.9
2.1
22.5
0.7
285.4
2.2
18.0
8.5
61.3
1.9
14.3
33.9
13.1
3.7
3.7
12.7
-0.5
35.7
3.4
45.8
2.5
31.1
2.0
10.8
0.3
9.7
-1.8
56.6
1.5
309.3
2.0
22.6
0.6
286.7
2.1
18.2
7.2
61.5
1.8
14.4
34.0
13.2
3.7
3.1
12.7
-0.6
36.0
3.2
46.1
2.6
31.2
1.9
10.8
0.6
9.7
-1.7
56.8
1.5
310.8
2.0
22.6
0.6
288.2
2.1
18.4
6.1
61.8
1.7
14.4
34.1
13.3
3.7
2.5
12.7
-0.5
36.4
3.2
46.5
2.7
31.4
1.9
10.8
0.7
9.6
-1.6
57.1
1.6
312.0
1.9
22.6
0.5
289.4
2.0
18.5
4.7
62.0
1.6
14.5
34.1
13.4
3.7
2.2
12.7
-0.5
36.6
3.2
46.7
2.5
31.5
1.9
10.9
0.5
9.6
-1.7
57.3
1.7
313.3
1.7
22.7
0.6
290.6
1.8
18.7
3.7
62.2
1.5
14.6
34.1
13.4
3.7
1.6
12.7
-0.4
36.8
3.1
47.0
2.6
31.6
1.7
10.9
0.4
9.5
-1.6
57.6
1.7
987.6
1.3
452.8
1.2
11.3
4700
3761
939
990.7
1.3
454.1
1.2
11.1
4728
3769
959
993.8
1.3
455.3
1.2
10.9
4693
3705
988
996.9
1.3
456.9
1.2
10.7
4582
3557
1025
1000.0
1.3
458.3
1.2
10.5
4513
3465
1047
1003.1
1.2
459.7
1.2
10.3
4445
3373
1072
1006.1
1.2
460.9
1.2
10.1
4419
3300
1119
1009.2
1.2
462.1
1.1
10.0
4443
3220
1224
1012.3
1.2
463.3
1.1
9.9
4507
3204
1303
29
Annual Outlook for Fresno

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
25.8
6.5
12.6
13.2
25.1
3.7
29.1
28.4
41.5
3.8
27.1
5.2
13.3
13.8
25.8
2.6
30.2
28.7
43.3
4.4
27.9
2.8
13.7
14.2
25.7
-0.2
30.6
28.2
45.0
4.0
28.1
0.7
13.2
14.9
25.9
0.7
30.4
28.1
45.8
1.7
28.9
2.7
13.2
15.7
26.2
1.1
30.9
28.1
46.8
2.3
30.5
5.9
13.5
17.1
27.1
3.4
32.4
28.8
47.7
1.9
31.8
4.0
14.0
17.8
27.6
2.1
33.5
29.1
49.1
2.9
32.4
1.9
14.2
18.2
27.8
0.8
33.8
29.1
49.2
0.3
33.9
4.6
14.6
19.3
28.8
3.3
35.1
29.8
50.1
1.8
35.6
5.1
15.3
20.3
29.8
3.5
36.4
30.5
51.4
2.5
37.6
5.7
16.0
21.6
30.9
3.9
38.0
31.3
52.7
2.6
39.9
6.0
16.8
23.1
32.2
4.2
39.8
32.2
54.2
2.8
42.1
5.6
17.6
24.5
33.4
3.7
41.6
32.9
55.8
3.0

302.6 306.4 303.0 286.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8
1.2
-1.1
-5.5
Manufacturing
27.5
28.1
27.1
25.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.2
2.1
-3.5
-7.5
Nonmanufacturing
275.1 278.3 275.9 261.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.0
1.2
-0.8
-5.3
23.4
21.2
18.0
13.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
7.5
-9.2 -15.1 -22.8
58.4
60.4
59.2
55.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
3.3
-2.0
-6.0
Wholesale Trade
13.2
13.5
12.9
11.8
Retail Trade
35.2
36.3
35.4
33.1
10.0
10.6
11.0
10.6
Information
4.2
4.2
4.7
4.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
-3.2
-0.6
13.4 -13.0
15.5
15.3
14.8
13.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.5
-1.4
-3.5
-6.7
29.5
30.0
30.7
28.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.5
1.6
2.2
-8.2
37.5
38.9
40.1
40.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4
3.8
3.1
0.5
28.1
28.2
28.0
26.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
8.6
0.3
-0.8
-4.8
Other Services
10.9
11.0
10.6
10.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.5
0.7
-3.0
-4.5
Federal Government
9.8
9.6
9.7
9.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.6
-2.1
2.0
0.8
57.8
59.6
60.2
58.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1
3.1
1.0
-2.2
279.5
-2.4
24.1
-3.7
255.4
-2.2
12.2
-11.9
55.1
-0.8
11.5
32.8
10.8
3.4
-17.1
13.4
-2.9
26.7
-5.0
40.8
1.3
26.8
0.7
10.0
-1.8
10.7
8.8
56.4
-4.3
281.1
0.6
23.8
-1.5
257.3
0.8
11.7
-4.0
57.3
4.0
12.5
33.4
11.4
3.3
-3.3
13.0
-3.1
27.2
1.7
41.9
2.8
27.1
1.2
10.1
1.4
10.2
-4.7
55.6
-1.4
282.9
0.6
23.4
-1.3
259.5
0.8
12.3
5.2
57.5
0.3
12.7
33.2
11.6
3.5
6.7
12.8
-1.4
27.9
2.5
42.9
2.3
28.0
3.4
10.5
4.2
10.2
-0.1
53.9
-2.9
286.2
1.2
22.4
-4.5
263.8
1.7
12.9
4.8
58.4
1.6
13.2
33.2
12.0
3.5
-0.5
12.9
0.8
30.3
8.7
42.4
-1.1
28.9
3.1
10.7
1.5
9.9
-2.1
53.9
0.0
289.9
1.3
21.9
-1.9
268.0
1.6
13.5
4.5
58.3
-0.2
13.2
33.2
11.9
3.4
-2.1
12.7
-1.4
32.2
6.4
42.9
1.1
29.7
2.7
10.8
1.3
10.2
2.3
54.4
0.8
295.8
2.0
22.2
1.3
273.6
2.1
15.0
11.4
59.2
1.5
13.5
33.3
12.3
3.5
1.4
12.7
0.4
33.5
4.2
43.7
1.9
30.1
1.4
10.8
-0.2
10.1
-0.8
55.0
1.2
302.4
2.2
22.4
0.7
280.0
2.3
16.8
11.6
60.3
1.9
13.9
33.6
12.7
3.5
2.6
12.8
0.4
34.7
3.6
44.8
2.7
30.6
1.5
10.8
-0.3
9.9
-2.3
55.9
1.5
308.6
2.1
22.5
0.6
286.1
2.2
18.1
7.8
61.4
1.8
14.3
34.0
13.1
3.7
3.1
12.7
-0.5
35.9
3.3
46.0
2.6
31.1
1.9
10.8
0.4
9.7
-1.7
56.7
1.5
313.8
1.7
22.7
0.7
291.1
1.8
18.7
3.5
62.2
1.4
14.6
34.2
13.5
3.7
2.0
12.7
-0.4
37.0
2.9
47.1
2.5
31.7
1.7
10.9
0.3
9.5
-1.7
57.7
1.8

Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Total Housing Starts
Single-Family
Multifamily
933.6
1.2
440.6
1.3
16.8
2177
1902
276
941.7
0.9
443.8
0.7
16.6
1895
1665
229
948.8
0.8
442.4
-0.3
15.2
1892
1583
310
956.1
0.8
439.6
-0.6
13.1
2323
1972
351
965.2
0.9
443.5
0.9
12.8
3046
2567
479
976.6
1.2
448.1
1.0
12.1
4101
3307
794
989.2 1001.5 1013.8

1.3
1.0
1.2
453.4 458.9 463.8
1.2
1.2
1.1
11.2
10.4
9.9
4689
4490
4566
3739
3424
3212
950
1066
1354
Personal Income (Billions $)

Pct Chg Year Ago
Wages and Salaries
Nonwage Income
Pct Chg Year Ago
Pct Chg Year Ago
30
885.4
1.3
411.6
1.0
8.0
5290
4219
1071
897.7
1.4
419.5
1.9
8.5
4491
3649
842
911.0
1.5
430.2
2.6
10.5
2696
2285
411
922.9
1.3
435.2
1.2
15.0
2271
2169
102
Merced MSA
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
Merced MSAs employment will increase 3.1% in 2014
and is expected to decrease slightly in 2015 with a 2.4%
growth. Job growth dropped slightly in the fourth quarter
of 2014 which had a 3.1% increase, and is expected to
decline slightly more with a 2.4% growth in the first quarter
of 2015. The sectors with the strongest growth in jobs are
the Construction and Mining sector and the Professional
and Business Services sector with job increases of 14.4%
and 5.4%, respectively. Growth is expected in all sectors for
Merced in 2015.
Real personal income in Merced is expected to increase to
$7.5 billion dollars in 2015, a 3.3% increase from 2014 real
personal income of $7.3 Billion. This increase in income is

expected to continue until it reaches $8.4 Billion in 2018.
The population in Merced is expected to raise 1.4% in
2015 and 1.5% in 2016. The labor force growth is expected
to jump to a 1.6% growth in 2015 from a 0.8% growth in
2016 and is expected to maintain the 1.6% growth for the
following two years. Despite the increase in the labor force,
the unemployment rate will still decrease to 13.3% from
14.1% in 2014. The unemployment rate will continue to
decrease, reaching 10.8% in 2018.
Merced Real Personal Income

Merced Payroll Employment

(Thousands)
20%
70
15%
65
10%
60
55
5%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
50
45
-5%
40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-10%
Merced and California Unemployment Rates

(percent)
20%
Merced Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011

(California = 100)
200

18%
180
16%
160
14%
140
12%
120
100
10%
80
8%
60
6%
40
4%
20
2%
0
Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
31
METRO SUMMARY - MERCED
Quarterly Outlook for Merced

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2
8.0
8.3
8.1
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
8.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.9
7.4
2.2
2.5
2.1
-0.1
4.2
5.0
5.4
5.4
5.1
5.0
Wages and Salaries
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
Nonwage Income
5.4
5.6
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
7.0
7.2
7.0
7.0
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.4
7.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2
5.6
0.9
1.4
0.9
-1.0
3.2
3.6
4.0
3.9
3.5
3.4
30.5
31.4
30.5
30.6
30.7
31.0
31.4
31.7
32.0
32.3
32.6
32.8
26.5
27.2
26.3
26.4
26.4
26.6
26.9
27.0
27.1
27.3
27.4
27.5
45.2
46.3
45.1
45.0
44.9
45.2
45.3
45.6
45.9
46.1
46.4
46.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.0
5.5
-1.0
0.5
-0.7
-2.4
0.6
1.3
2.2
2.1
2.4
2.4
57.4
58.5
58.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1
2.7
2.7
Manufacturing
8.4
8.6
8.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.9
3.5
4.4
Nonmanufacturing
49.0
49.9
49.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.2
2.5
2.4
1.7
1.7
1.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.1
9.2
19.2
12.3
12.4
12.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4
4.8
4.3
Wholesale Trade
2.4
2.5
2.8
Retail Trade
7.5
7.4
7.3
2.5
2.5
2.3
Information
0.4
0.4
0.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.1
0.5
-0.3
1.6
1.6
1.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
6.8
7.7
10.8
4.3
4.5
4.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
-3.5
-1.0
2.2
6.3
6.4
6.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.6
0.2
0.3
4.7
4.8
4.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
2.2
2.6
Other Services
1.4
1.3
1.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.1
-4.3
-5.0
Federal Government
0.8
0.7
0.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.5
-3.7
-4.4
15.5
16.0
15.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
2.7
0.3
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
32
263.0
0.9
111.3
0.7
16.9
152
98
54
California & Metro Forecast - April 2011
263.7
1.0
112.2
1.0
16.5
358
105
254
264.6
1.1
113.1
1.9
16.0
209
94
115
58.1
1.7
8.6
2.0
49.5
1.7
1.7
3.4
12.4
3.0
2.7
7.4
2.3
0.4
-0.3
1.6
-1.0
4.5
4.1
6.4
1.4
4.8
3.2
1.4
-2.8
0.7
-5.0
15.6
0.5
58.3
1.6
8.4
-0.9
50.0
2.0
1.7
3.8
12.5
2.0
2.5
7.5
2.6
0.4
-2.4
1.6
0.0
4.7
7.7
6.5
2.1
5.0
6.4
1.4
1.1
0.7
-9.3
15.5
-0.1
59.0
0.9
8.4
-3.0
50.7
1.5
1.8
2.6
12.6
1.4
2.5
7.6
2.6
0.4
1.6
1.6
-0.9
4.8
6.5
6.5
2.7
5.1
6.6
1.3
-3.4
0.7
-1.8
15.9
-1.0
59.8
2.1
8.5
-3.9
51.3
3.1
1.8
-7.2
12.7
1.8
2.5
7.6
2.6
0.4
5.8
1.6
-4.6
4.8
8.9
6.6
2.7
5.1
7.8
1.3
-1.6
0.7
-0.2
16.3
4.0
60.1
3.4
8.5
-0.9
51.6
4.2
1.8
7.6
12.7
2.6
2.5
7.6
2.6
0.4
-0.8
1.6
1.9
4.9
7.3
6.6
2.8
5.2
6.8
1.3
-3.0
0.7
3.3
16.4
5.0
60.5
3.7
8.6
3.0
51.9
3.8
1.9
10.5
12.8
1.8
2.5
7.7
2.6
0.4
0.6
1.6
0.6
4.9
5.8
6.6
2.6
5.2
3.8
1.3
-5.7
0.7
1.7
16.4
6.0
60.9
3.1
8.6
2.6
52.3
3.2
2.0
11.9
12.8
1.8
2.5
7.7
2.6
0.4
0.6
1.6
1.3
5.0
4.8
6.7
2.0
5.2
2.5
1.3
1.5
0.7
1.5
16.5
3.9
61.2
2.4
8.7
2.5
52.6
2.4
2.0
13.4
12.9
1.8
2.5
7.7
2.7
0.4
-0.8
1.6
1.3
5.1
5.2
6.7
2.0
5.3
2.5
1.3
1.5
0.7
0.8
16.6
1.4
61.5
2.4
8.7
1.9
52.9
2.5
2.1
14.1
12.9
1.8
2.5
7.7
2.7
0.4
0.2
1.6
1.3
5.1
5.6
6.7
2.1
5.3
2.3
1.3
0.8
0.7
0.3
16.6
1.5
265.3
1.1
113.4
2.3
14.8
106
91
15
266.1
1.2
110.7
-0.5
14.4
109
97
12
266.9
1.2
111.4
-0.7
14.5
115
107
9
267.9
1.2
112.3
-0.7
14.2
177
159
17
268.7
1.3
112.7
-0.6
14.1
276
246
30
269.5
1.3
113.2
2.2
14.0
346
305
41
270.5
1.3
113.8
2.2
13.9
420
367
54
271.5
1.4
114.2
1.7
13.6
555
485
70
272.4
1.4
114.6
1.7
13.4
718
638
80
Quarterly Outlook for Merced

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
9.0
9.1
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.7
9.8
10.0
10.1
10.3
10.4
10.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.9
4.8
5.1
5.4
5.6
5.9
5.8
5.9
6.0
5.9
5.8
5.8
Wages and Salaries
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
Nonwage Income
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.8
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.3
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
33.1
33.3
33.7
34.1
34.4
34.7
35.1
35.5
35.9
36.2
36.6
37.0
27.6
27.7
27.9
28.1
28.2
28.4
28.5
28.7
28.9
29.0
29.2
29.4
47.0
47.2
47.5
47.8
48.0
48.3
48.6
48.9
49.2
49.5
49.8
50.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
61.9
62.3
62.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4
2.4
2.3
Manufacturing
8.7
8.7
8.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.9
1.2
0.8
Nonmanufacturing
53.2
53.6
53.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
14.7
15.2
15.8
13.0
13.1
13.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.8
1.9
2.0
Wholesale Trade
2.6
2.6
2.6
Retail Trade
7.7
7.8
7.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
Information
0.4
0.4
0.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
2.1
2.9
1.6
1.6
1.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.6
0.6
0.6
5.2
5.3
5.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.5
5.2
4.5
6.8
6.8
6.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
2.3
2.2
5.3
5.3
5.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
1.7
1.5
Other Services
1.3
1.3
1.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.0
0.8
0.8
Federal Government
0.7
0.7
0.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.1
0.0
-0.7
16.7
16.8
16.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.8
1.7
1.8
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
273.3
1.4
115.0
1.6
13.2
907
812
95
274.4
1.4
115.5
1.5
13.0
991
886
104
275.5
1.5
116.0
1.6
12.8
1059
951
108
63.0
2.4
8.7
0.9
54.3
2.7
2.4
16.2
13.2
2.0
2.6
7.8
2.8
0.4
3.2
1.6
1.2
5.3
4.1
6.9
2.7
5.4
1.5
1.3
0.8
0.7
-0.9
17.0
1.9
63.4
2.5
8.8
0.8
54.7
2.7
2.5
15.6
13.3
2.1
2.6
7.8
2.8
0.4
2.7
1.6
1.2
5.4
4.2
7.0
3.0
5.4
1.5
1.3
1.5
0.7
-1.0
17.0
1.9
63.8
2.4
8.8
0.7
55.0
2.7
2.6
14.5
13.3
2.0
2.7
7.9
2.8
0.4
3.3
1.6
0.6
5.5
4.2
7.0
2.8
5.4
1.5
1.3
0.0
0.7
-1.3
17.1
2.0
64.2
2.4
8.8
0.5
55.4
2.7
2.7
14.0
13.4
2.0
2.7
7.9
2.8
0.4
4.2
1.6
0.0
5.5
4.3
7.1
2.9
5.4
1.7
1.3
0.8
0.7
-0.9
17.2
2.0
64.5
2.4
8.8
0.6
55.7
2.6
2.7
12.3
13.5
1.9
2.7
7.9
2.9
0.4
3.9
1.6
-0.6
5.6
4.1
7.1
2.7
5.5
1.9
1.4
1.5
0.7
-0.9
17.3
2.1
64.8
2.2
8.8
0.7
56.0
2.5
2.8
10.7
13.5
1.8
2.7
7.9
2.9
0.4
3.5
1.6
-1.2
5.6
3.7
7.2
2.7
5.5
1.9
1.4
0.7
0.7
-0.8
17.4
2.1
65.2
2.2
8.8
0.7
56.4
2.4
2.9
10.0
13.5
1.6
2.7
8.0
2.9
0.4
3.1
1.6
-1.8
5.7
3.3
7.2
3.1
5.5
2.0
1.4
1.5
0.7
-0.7
17.5
2.1
65.5
2.0
8.8
0.6
56.7
2.3
2.9
7.8
13.6
1.5
2.7
8.0
2.9
0.4
2.7
1.6
-1.2
5.7
3.1
7.2
2.7
5.5
1.8
1.4
1.5
0.7
-0.9
17.6
2.2
65.8
2.0
8.9
0.7
56.9
2.2
2.9
6.6
13.7
1.5
2.7
8.0
2.9
0.4
2.6
1.6
-1.8
5.7
2.9
7.3
2.8
5.5
1.5
1.4
0.7
0.7
-0.8
17.7
2.3
276.5
1.5
116.4
1.6
12.6
1114
1005
109
277.5
1.5
116.9
1.6
12.3
1145
1035
110
278.7
1.6
117.3
1.6
12.1
1149
1037
112
280.0
1.7
117.8
1.6
11.8
1143
1027
116
281.1
1.6
118.3
1.6
11.6
1126
1011
116
282.1
1.7
118.8
1.6
11.3
1110.5
995
116
283.3
1.7
119.3
1.7
11.0
1105
988
117
284.7
1.6
119.9
1.8
10.9
1109
991
118
285.7
1.7
120.6
1.9
10.9
1104
988
116
33
Annual Outlook for Merced

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
6.1
4.1
2.4
3.7
5.9
1.4
24.8
24.1
40.4
7.4
6.9
12.8
2.5
4.4
6.5
10.0
27.6
26.2
41.9
3.6
6.7
-2.4
2.6
4.1
6.2
-5.3
26.7
24.6
44.2
5.7
6.7
0.0
2.5
4.1
6.2
0.0
26.4
24.4
45.6
3.1
7.0
5.3
2.5
4.5
6.4
3.6
27.4
24.9
45.0
-1.2
7.6
8.3
2.6
5.1
6.8
5.8
29.3
26.0
44.7
-0.7
8.0
5.3
2.6
5.4
7.0
3.4
30.6
26.6
45.4
1.7
8.2
1.7
2.7
5.5
7.0
0.5
30.7
26.4
45.0
-0.9
8.6
5.0
2.8
5.8
7.3
3.7
31.8
27.1
45.7
1.6
9.0
4.9
2.9
6.1
7.5
3.3
33.0
27.6
46.8
2.4
9.5
5.5
3.0
6.4
7.8
3.6
34.2
28.1
47.9
2.3
10.0
5.9
3.2
6.9
8.1
4.0
35.7
28.8
49.0
2.4
10.6
5.9
3.3
7.3
8.4
3.9
37.1
29.4
50.4
2.7

58.1
58.9
57.9
55.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.2
1.4
-1.8
-4.2
Manufacturing
9.7
9.3
9.3
8.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
-11.8
-4.5
0.3
-8.0
Nonmanufacturing
48.4
49.6
48.6
46.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.6
2.6
-2.2
-3.5
3.6
3.2
2.4
1.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4 -12.1 -24.9 -32.0
11.3
11.9
11.7
11.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.2
5.4
-2.3
-1.5
Wholesale Trade
1.8
1.9
1.8
2.0
Retail Trade
7.5
7.8
7.6
7.3
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.2
Information
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
-18.4
-7.1 -11.9
-5.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.0
-2.9
-4.7 -12.6
4.4
4.6
4.4
4.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
11.4
5.4
-4.4
-7.7
5.3
5.6
5.6
5.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.4
4.7
0.7
0.1
4.8
5.0
5.0
4.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.2
4.2
0.7
-6.3
Other Services
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
-10.4
2.2
-6.3
-6.9
Federal Government
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-7.0
9.5
1.2
-0.1
14.0
14.4
14.8
15.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.9
3.0
2.6
1.9
56.2
1.3
8.3
-3.0
47.9
2.1
1.6
-2.6
11.4
-1.1
2.0
7.2
2.2
0.6
1.4
1.6
1.5
4.2
3.7
5.9
5.5
4.5
-3.5
1.4
-0.1
0.8
5.2
15.8
5.3
56.7
0.9
8.2
-0.9
48.4
1.2
1.5
-2.1
11.8
3.5
2.0
7.4
2.4
0.4
-29.5
1.5
-3.6
4.4
4.7
6.3
6.0
4.6
2.7
1.4
1.4
0.8
-5.8
15.6
-1.2
57.5
1.5
8.5
2.9
49.0
1.3
1.7
7.9
12.2
3.4
2.3
7.4
2.5
0.4
-7.1
1.6
2.5
4.4
-1.2
6.3
1.4
4.7
1.5
1.4
-0.3
0.7
-5.1
15.7
0.3
58.5
1.7
8.5
0.6
50.0
1.9
1.8
7.2
12.5
2.7
2.6
7.5
2.4
0.4
-0.3
1.6
2.2
4.6
5.1
6.4
1.6
4.9
4.7
1.3
-2.5
0.7
-5.1
15.7
-0.1
60.3
3.1
8.5
0.2
51.8
3.6
1.9
5.7
12.7
2.0
2.5
7.6
2.6
0.4
1.6
1.6
-0.2
4.9
6.7
6.6
2.5
5.2
5.2
1.3
-2.2
0.7
1.6
16.4
4.7
61.7
2.4
8.7
1.6
53.1
2.5
2.1
14.4
13.0
1.8
2.6
7.7
2.7
0.4
1.0
1.6
0.9
5.2
5.4
6.8
2.1
5.3
2.2
1.3
0.8
0.7
0.3
16.7
1.6
63.2
2.4
8.7
0.8
54.5
2.7
2.5
15.5
13.2
2.0
2.6
7.8
2.8
0.4
3.0
1.6
0.9
5.4
4.3
6.9
2.7
5.4
1.5
1.3
0.8
0.7
-1.0
17.0
1.9
64.7
2.3
8.8
0.6
55.9
2.6
2.8
11.8
13.5
1.8
2.7
7.9
2.9
0.4
3.7
1.6
-0.9
5.6
3.9
7.1
2.9
5.5
1.9
1.3
1.1
0.7
-0.8
17.3
2.1
65.9
1.9
8.9
0.7
57.1
2.1
2.9
5.8
13.7
1.5
2.7
8.0
2.9
0.4
2.5
1.6
-1.4
5.7
2.7
7.3
2.7
5.6
1.5
1.4
1.1
0.7
-0.8
17.7
2.3
257.2
1.6
109.3
3.5
18.8
119
116
3
260.2
1.2
110.5
1.0
18.3
127
99
28
262.7
1.0
111.3
0.8
17.0
175
77
98
265.7
1.2
112.1
0.7
14.9
135
97
37
269.1
1.3
113.0
0.8
14.1
305
269
36

Pct Chg Year Ago
Wages and Salaries
Nonwage Income
Pct Chg Year Ago
Pct Chg Year Ago

Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
34
245.8
1.2
98.3
-0.7
9.5
2451
2380
71
248.7
1.2
100.0
1.8
10.1
856
837
19
250.7
0.8
102.3
2.3
12.7
363
283
80
253.1
0.9
105.7
3.3
16.9
120
119
2
272.9 277.0
1.4
1.5
114.8 116.7
1.6
1.6
13.3
12.4
793 1116.8
706 1006.9
87 110.0
281.6 286.3
1.7
1.6
118.6 120.8
1.6
1.9
11.4
10.8
1121 1108.6
1005 991.2
116.2 117.4
Modesto MSA
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
Employment in the Modesto MSA is expected to grow
2.1% in 2016, after a 1.8% increase in 2015. Job growth is
expected to maintain a steady 1.8-1.9% increase through
the fourth quarter of 2015 and increase to 2.0% the first
quarter of 2016. For 2016, the Construction and Mining
sector and Education and Health Services sector are
predicted to lead in job growth with an expected increase of
12.0% and 2.4% respectively. Moderate growth is expected
in all sectors with the exception of the Financial Activities
sector, Professional and Business sector, and the Federal
Government.
Real personal income is expected to increase at a healthy
rate of 3.8% in 2015 to $17.3 Billion. It is predicted that real

personal income will increase 4.0% for 2017 and slightly
decrease in 2018 with a growth of 3.5%.
Population in Modesto will increase in 2016 by 1.3%
and will continue to increase at a steady rate for the years
to come. Modestos labor force is expected to grow at a
modest rate of 1.3% for 2016 and it is anticipated to steadily
decline through the foreseeable forecast, reaching a1.0%
growth in 2018. Unemployment in Modesto will decline
from 11.3% in 2015 to 10.6% in 2016. It is projected that
unemployment will continue its steady decrease until it
reaches 9.4% in 2018.
Modesto Payroll Employment
(Thousands)
Modesto Real Personal Income

180
8%
170
6%
160
4%
150
2%
140
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-2%
130
120
-4%
110
-6%
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Modesto and California Unemployment Rates

(percent)
Modesto Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011

(California = 100)
19%
17%
15%
200
180
160
140
13%
120
11%
9%
100
80
60
7%
5%
40
20
0
3%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
35
METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO
Quarterly Outlook for Modesto

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2
17.8
18.3
17.9
18.0
18.1
18.4
18.7
18.9
19.1
19.3
19.6
19.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.2
6.8
1.8
2.0
2.0
0.3
4.4
5.0
5.3
5.2
5.0
5.0
Wages and Salaries
7.1
7.4
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.7
7.8
Nonwage Income
10.6
10.9
10.7
10.8
11.0
11.1
11.3
11.4
11.5
11.7
11.8
12.0
15.5
15.9
15.4
15.5
15.6
15.8
15.9
16.1
16.2
16.3
16.5
16.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6
5.0
0.4
0.9
0.9
-0.6
3.5
3.6
3.9
3.7
3.4
3.4
34.0
35.0
34.0
34.2
34.4
34.8
35.2
35.5
35.9
36.2
36.6
36.9
29.6
30.3
29.4
29.5
29.6
29.8
30.1
30.3
30.4
30.6
30.8
31.0
47.9
49.1
47.9
47.5
47.1
47.4
47.6
48.0
48.4
48.7
49.1
49.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1
5.8
0.1
-0.3
-1.8
-3.4
-0.5
1.0
2.8
2.7
3.0
3.0
148.4
149.6
149.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
1.6
0.7
Manufacturing
20.6
20.8
20.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.8
-1.9
-1.3
Nonmanufacturing
127.8
128.8
128.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7
2.2
1.0
6.4
6.5
6.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
11.8
11.7
4.4
33.5
33.9
34.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.2
3.5
3.4
Wholesale Trade
5.8
5.8
5.9
Retail Trade
20.8
21.1
21.1
6.9
7.0
7.1
Information
1.0
1.0
1.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
-6.4
-9.4
-3.6
5.4
5.4
5.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.5
1.0
1.4
12.8
12.8
12.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.4
2.5
-0.4
23.8
24.0
23.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7
0.9
-0.4
14.8
15.0
15.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
2.5
2.1
Other Services
4.9
4.9
4.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
0.5
1.0
Federal Government
0.8
0.8
0.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-10.9
-11.4
-11.6
24.3
24.6
24.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.0
0.9
-0.8
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
36
522.7
0.7
239.3
0.3
15.1
323
241
82
523.6
0.7
239.0
-0.3
14.6
260
253
7
524.6
0.7
238.7
-0.4
14.1
292
269
23
150.2
1.0
20.9
-0.1
129.3
1.2
6.1
-0.7
34.3
3.5
5.9
21.2
7.3
0.9
-15.4
5.4
0.7
12.9
-0.4
24.0
0.2
15.4
2.8
5.0
2.2
0.8
-14.8
24.7
0.7
151.9
2.4
20.7
0.4
131.3
2.7
5.7
-10.9
35.0
4.5
5.9
21.4
7.7
0.9
-13.2
5.4
-0.7
13.3
4.0
24.2
1.4
15.9
7.2
5.1
5.0
0.8
-5.2
25.1
3.1
153.5
2.6
20.6
-0.6
132.8
3.1
5.9
-8.4
35.4
4.4
5.9
21.4
8.1
0.9
-9.1
5.4
-1.4
13.6
6.2
24.4
1.5
16.2
8.2
5.2
7.9
0.8
-4.2
25.1
2.1
154.2
3.4
20.7
0.6
133.5
3.9
6.0
-3.7
35.7
4.9
5.9
21.4
8.4
0.9
-9.5
5.4
-2.0
13.7
8.0
24.5
2.4
16.3
7.7
5.2
6.9
0.8
-4.7
25.1
2.9
154.9
3.2
20.9
0.0
134.0
3.7
6.1
0.7
35.8
4.5
5.9
21.5
8.4
0.9
0.2
5.3
-0.9
13.8
7.5
24.6
2.3
16.3
6.4
5.3
4.4
0.8
0.1
25.1
1.9
155.7
2.5
21.1
2.1
134.6
2.6
6.2
9.1
35.9
2.6
6.0
21.5
8.5
0.9
0.2
5.4
-0.4
13.9
5.0
24.7
2.2
16.4
3.6
5.3
2.1
0.8
-0.8
25.2
0.4
156.4
1.9
21.1
2.2
135.3
1.9
6.4
8.3
36.0
1.8
6.0
21.5
8.5
0.9
-0.4
5.4
0.1
14.1
3.8
24.8
1.5
16.5
1.9
5.2
-0.2
0.8
-1.4
25.3
0.8
157.1
1.9
21.1
1.9
136.0
1.8
6.6
9.8
36.1
1.0
6.0
21.5
8.6
0.9
-2.4
5.4
0.4
14.3
4.2
24.9
1.6
16.6
1.9
5.2
-0.2
0.8
-0.3
25.3
0.9
157.8
1.8
21.2
1.3
136.6
1.9
6.8
11.1
36.2
1.0
6.0
21.5
8.6
0.9
-2.0
5.4
1.1
14.4
4.3
24.9
1.4
16.6
1.7
5.2
-0.6
0.8
-0.1
25.4
1.1
525.6
0.7
237.2
-1.0
12.9
264
246
18
526.8
0.8
236.6
-1.1
12.5
358
299
59
528.1
0.8
236.7
-1.0
12.3
313
261
52
529.5
0.9
239.6
0.4
12.2
336
273
63
530.9
1.0
240.5
1.4
12.0
534
444
90
532.4
1.1
241.5
2.1
11.9
766
640
126
533.8
1.1
242.6
2.5
11.7
1060
870
190
535.2
1.1
243.2
1.5
11.5
1388
1119
269
536.5
1.1
243.9
1.4
11.4
1747
1423
325
Quarterly Outlook for Modesto

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
20.0
20.3
20.6
20.9
21.2
21.5
21.8
22.1
22.4
22.7
23.0
23.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.9
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.5
Wages and Salaries
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.6
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.0
9.1
Nonwage Income
12.1
12.3
12.5
12.7
12.8
13.0
13.3
13.4
13.6
13.8
14.0
14.2
16.7
16.9
17.1
17.2
17.4
17.5
17.7
17.9
18.1
18.2
18.4
18.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.6
37.3
37.6
38.1
38.5
38.9
39.3
39.8
40.2
40.6
41.0
41.4
41.8
31.1
31.3
31.5
31.7
31.9
32.1
32.3
32.5
32.7
32.9
33.1
33.2
49.8
50.1
50.6
50.9
51.3
51.6
52.1
52.5
52.9
53.4
53.8
54.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.9
2.8
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.3
158.5
159.4
160.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.8
1.9
2.0
Manufacturing
21.2
21.3
21.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.5
0.8
0.8
Nonmanufacturing
137.3
138.1
138.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.0
2.1
2.2
7.0
7.2
7.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
12.0
12.6
12.7
36.3
36.5
36.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1
1.3
1.5
Wholesale Trade
6.1
6.1
6.2
Retail Trade
21.5
21.6
21.6
8.7
8.8
8.9
Information
0.9
0.9
0.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.5
-0.7
-0.2
5.4
5.4
5.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.9
0.9
0.8
14.6
14.7
14.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.4
4.4
3.9
25.0
25.2
25.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
1.7
2.0
16.7
16.7
16.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
1.3
1.3
Other Services
5.2
5.2
5.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.8
-0.6
-0.6
Federal Government
0.8
0.8
0.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.3
-0.1
-0.5
25.5
25.6
25.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.2
1.2
1.2
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
538.1
1.1
244.7
1.4
11.3
2144
1752
392
539.6
1.1
245.6
1.2
11.1
2451
2010
441
541.4
1.2
246.5
1.3
11.0
2689
2224
465
161.1
2.1
21.3
0.7
139.8
2.3
7.6
12.5
36.8
1.7
6.2
21.7
8.9
0.9
0.2
5.4
0.5
14.9
3.6
25.5
2.4
16.9
1.6
5.2
-0.4
0.8
-0.9
25.7
1.4
162.0
2.2
21.3
0.6
140.7
2.5
7.8
11.9
37.0
1.8
6.3
21.7
9.0
0.9
0.2
5.4
0.3
15.1
3.7
25.7
2.6
17.0
1.9
5.2
0.0
0.7
-1.3
25.8
1.4
162.8
2.2
21.3
0.4
141.5
2.4
8.0
10.7
37.1
1.7
6.3
21.7
9.1
0.9
0.8
5.4
-0.1
15.2
3.5
25.9
2.7
17.1
2.1
5.2
0.2
0.7
-1.7
26.0
1.6
163.7
2.1
21.4
0.4
142.3
2.4
8.2
10.0
37.3
1.8
6.3
21.8
9.2
0.9
1.8
5.4
-0.3
15.3
3.5
26.0
2.5
17.2
2.3
5.2
0.6
0.7
-1.6
26.0
1.6
164.4
2.1
21.4
0.5
143.0
2.3
8.3
8.9
37.4
1.7
6.4
21.8
9.2
0.9
1.6
5.4
-0.4
15.4
3.2
26.2
2.5
17.2
2.1
5.2
0.8
0.7
-1.6
26.2
1.6
165.2
2.0
21.4
0.5
143.7
2.2
8.4
7.7
37.6
1.7
6.4
21.9
9.3
0.9
1.4
5.4
-0.5
15.5
2.8
26.3
2.5
17.3
2.1
5.3
0.8
0.7
-1.5
26.3
1.6
165.9
1.9
21.5
0.5
144.5
2.1
8.5
6.5
37.7
1.6
6.5
21.9
9.4
0.9
1.0
5.4
-0.5
15.6
2.6
26.5
2.6
17.4
1.9
5.3
0.8
0.7
-1.5
26.4
1.7
166.6
1.8
21.5
0.4
145.1
2.0
8.6
5.3
37.9
1.5
6.5
21.9
9.5
0.9
0.8
5.4
-0.3
15.7
2.5
26.6
2.5
17.5
1.8
5.3
0.4
0.7
-1.6
26.5
1.8
167.2
1.7
21.5
0.5
145.7
1.9
8.7
4.2
38.0
1.4
6.5
21.9
9.5
0.9
1.0
5.4
-0.4
15.8
2.5
26.8
2.5
17.5
1.7
5.3
0.4
0.7
-1.5
26.6
1.9
543.2
1.3
247.3
1.4
10.7
2854
2381
473
545.1
1.3
248.1
1.4
10.5
2987
2508
480
547.0
1.4
248.8
1.3
10.3
3085
2594
491
548.8
1.4
249.5
1.2
10.1
3172
2660
512
550.7
1.4
250.2
1.2
9.9
3216
2702
514
552.5
1.4
250.8
1.1
9.7
3226
2711
515
554.3
1.3
251.5
1.1
9.5
3247
2720
527
556.2
1.3
252.1
1.1
9.5
3230
2705
525
558.0
1.3
252.7
1.0
9.4
3263
2743
520
37
Annual Outlook for Modesto

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
15.0
4.5
6.6
8.3
14.6
1.7
29.6
28.9
41.3
2.9
15.7
5.0
6.9
8.8
14.9
2.5
30.9
29.4
42.8
3.6
15.7
-0.1
7.0
8.7
14.5
-3.1
30.8
28.4
44.6
4.3
15.6
-0.3
6.8
8.9
14.4
-0.3
30.5
28.2
45.8
2.7
16.2
3.3
6.8
9.4
14.7
1.6
31.3
28.4
46.1
0.5
17.1
5.8
6.9
10.2
15.1
3.3
32.9
29.2
46.9
1.9
17.8
4.4
7.2
10.6
15.5
2.5
34.1
29.7
48.1
2.6
18.1
1.5
7.2
10.9
15.6
0.4
34.4
29.6
47.5
-1.3
19.0
5.0
7.5
11.5
16.1
3.7
35.7
30.3
48.2
1.5
19.9
5.0
7.9
12.0
16.7
3.3
37.1
31.0
49.6
2.9
21.0
5.6
8.3
12.8
17.3
3.8
38.7
31.8
51.1
3.0
22.3
5.8
8.7
13.5
18.0
4.0
40.4
32.6
52.7
3.2
23.5
5.5
9.2
14.3
18.6
3.5
42.0
33.3
54.5
3.3

159.9 160.2 156.5 146.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.5
0.2
-2.3
-6.2
Manufacturing
22.2
22.9
22.6
20.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.8
3.3
-1.3
-7.7
Nonmanufacturing
137.7 137.3 133.9 125.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.9
-0.3
-2.5
-6.0
13.3
11.2
9.1
6.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.5 -15.2 -18.8 -27.3
33.6
33.7
32.9
31.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.2
0.5
-2.6
-4.5
Wholesale Trade
5.9
6.1
6.0
6.1
Retail Trade
22.5
22.1
21.1
19.5
5.2
5.6
5.7
5.7
Information
2.4
2.3
1.8
1.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
-3.9
-5.5 -19.2 -30.1
6.3
6.2
6.1
5.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6
-1.2
-2.3
-7.6
14.8
14.8
14.3
13.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.4
-0.1
-3.3
-7.8
19.8
21.1
21.7
22.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.6
6.4
2.8
2.3
15.3
15.4
15.5
14.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.7
0.7
0.9
-5.6
Other Services
5.9
6.0
5.8
5.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
-3.4
1.5
-3.8 -10.3
Federal Government
1.2
1.1
0.9
0.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.9
-6.9 -18.8
-1.0
25.1
25.4
25.8
24.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8
1.2
1.5
-3.3
146.3
-0.3
20.7
-0.9
125.7
-0.2
5.9
-10.7
31.6
0.7
5.9
19.5
6.2
1.2
-4.5
5.4
-2.6
12.5
-5.1
23.2
4.5
14.6
-0.6
5.0
-2.6
1.0
12.9
25.2
1.3
146.0
-0.2
20.7
0.0
125.3
-0.3
5.8
-1.6
32.2
1.8
5.8
20.0
6.4
1.1
-8.3
5.4
-0.9
12.2
-1.9
23.7
2.0
14.5
-0.6
4.9
-3.9
0.9
-8.9
24.8
-1.8
148.7
1.8
20.8
0.6
127.9
2.0
6.2
7.8
33.4
3.7
5.8
20.7
6.8
1.0
-6.1
5.4
0.0
12.8
4.5
24.0
1.3
14.9
2.8
4.9
0.7
0.8
-5.7
24.5
-1.1
151.2
1.7
20.7
-0.4
130.5
2.0
6.0
-3.9
34.7
4.0
5.9
21.3
7.5
0.9
-10.3
5.4
0.0
13.1
2.4
24.1
0.7
15.6
5.1
5.1
4.0
0.8
-8.9
24.8
1.3
155.3
2.7
21.0
1.2
134.4
3.0
6.2
3.6
35.9
3.5
5.9
21.5
8.4
0.9
-2.4
5.4
-0.8
13.9
6.1
24.6
2.1
16.4
4.9
5.2
3.3
0.8
-1.7
25.2
1.5
158.2
1.8
21.2
1.1
137.0
2.0
6.9
11.4
36.3
1.1
6.1
21.5
8.7
0.9
-1.4
5.4
0.9
14.5
4.3
25.0
1.5
16.6
1.6
5.2
-0.5
0.8
0.0
25.4
1.1
161.5
2.1
21.3
0.6
140.2
2.4
7.7
12.0
36.9
1.7
6.2
21.7
9.0
0.9
0.3
5.4
0.4
15.0
3.7
25.6
2.4
16.9
1.7
5.2
-0.2
0.7
-1.1
25.8
1.4
164.8
2.0
21.4
0.5
143.4
2.2
8.4
8.3
37.5
1.7
6.4
21.8
9.3
0.9
1.4
5.4
-0.4
15.5
3.1
26.3
2.5
17.3
2.1
5.2
0.7
0.7
-1.5
26.2
1.6
167.5
1.7
21.5
0.5
146.0
1.8
8.7
4.0
38.0
1.3
6.5
21.9
9.5
0.9
1.1
5.4
-0.4
15.9
2.5
26.9
2.4
17.6
1.6
5.3
0.2
0.7
-1.5
26.7
1.9

Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
515.6
0.7
239.7
2.0
17.3
270
169
101
518.5
0.6
238.8
-0.4
16.7
212
132
80
522.2
0.7
239.4
0.3
15.2
318
191
126
526.3
0.8
237.3
-0.9
12.9
307
269
38
531.7
1.0
241.1
1.6
12.0
674
557
117
537.3
1.1
244.4
1.4
11.3
1933
1576
357
544.2
1.3
247.6
1.3
10.6
2904
2427
477
551.6 558.9
1.4
1.3
250.5 252.9
1.2
1.0
9.8
9.4
3215 3287.4
2698 2760.7
517 526.7

Pct Chg Year Ago
Wages and Salaries
Nonwage Income
Pct Chg Year Ago
Pct Chg Year Ago
38
505.0
0.9
225.1
-0.9
8.0
2661
2368
293
507.9
0.6
227.3
1.0
8.7
1721
1396
325
509.4
0.3
232.1
2.1
11.0
636
534
102
512.1
0.5
235.0
1.3
15.8
376
289
86
Oakland MSA
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
Nonfarm employment in the Oakland MSA is expected
to increase in 2015 compared to 2014 with a growth of
1.9% versus 1.4%. The sector with the greatest increase
in employment for 2015 is the Construction & Mining
sector which is expected to grow 10.8%. The next leader in
economic growth is the Professional & Business Services
sector with an expected growth of 4.4%. Employment
growth is expected as well in all other sectors with the
exception of the Other Services sector and the Federal
Government, which is projected to lose jobs in the years to
come.
Real personal income for 2015 is expected to increase to
$137.9 Billion, which is a 3.5% increase from $133.2 Billion
in 2014. For the years following, Oakland MSA will

continue to have positive real personal income growth rate.
The Oakland MSAs population is expected to have a
1.2% growth for 2015 and 1.1% growth for 2016. 2017 will
bring a 1.1% growth rate which is expected to continue
throughout the projected horizon. Unemployment in
Oakland will decrease to 6.5% in 2015 and will continue
to decrease in the foreseeable future until it reaches 4.7% in
2018. As growth in employment continues, labor force will
also increase 1.3% this year with an increase of 1.2% and
1.0% for 2015 and 2016, respectively.
Oakland Real Personal Income

(Percent change from one year ago)
20%
Oakland Payroll Employment

(Thousands)
1100
1075
15%
1050
10%
1025
1000
5%
975
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
950
-5%
925
900
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-10%
Oakland and California Unemployment Rates

(percent)
14%
Oakland Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011

(California = 100)
200

12%
10%
180
160
140
120
8%
6%
100
80
60
4%
40
20
2%
0
Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
39
METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND
Quarterly Outlook for Oakland

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2
146.3
151.7
147.5
148.8
150.0
151.6
153.7
155.7
157.8
159.7
161.9
163.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.8
8.2
2.7
3.0
2.6
-0.1
4.2
4.7
5.1
5.4
5.3
5.2
Wages and Salaries
66.3
69.7
67.1
67.5
67.5
68.1
68.8
69.7
70.6
71.5
72.5
73.5
Nonwage Income
80.0
82.0
80.5
81.2
82.5
83.5
84.9
86.0
87.1
88.2
89.4
90.3
127.1
131.3
127.3
128.4
128.9
130.0
131.4
132.6
133.8
135.0
136.3
137.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2
6.4
1.4
1.9
1.4
-1.0
3.2
3.2
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
55.3
57.2
55.4
55.7
56.0
56.4
57.0
57.5
58.1
58.6
59.3
59.8
48.1
49.5
47.8
48.1
48.1
48.3
48.7
49.0
49.3
49.6
49.9
50.2
67.1
70.0
67.4
67.6
67.6
68.1
68.5
69.1
69.6
70.1
70.7
71.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
8.0
0.9
1.4
0.8
-2.7
1.7
2.2
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.3
982.5
989.4
989.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
2.7
2.0
Manufacturing
80.1
80.2
79.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.0
-0.1
-1.2
Nonmanufacturing
902.4
909.2
910.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.6
2.9
2.3
53.1
54.4
55.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
7.2
7.6
7.4
179.3
179.6
180.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7
1.2
1.5
Wholesale Trade
43.5
43.4
43.8
Retail Trade
102.9
103.4
103.4
32.8
32.8
33.5
Information
21.9
21.9
21.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
-2.8
-1.7
-3.6
48.4
48.2
48.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7
0.3
-0.2
166.0
168.7
170.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.8
5.8
5.4
141.5
143.1
142.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.9
3.9
2.1
92.2
93.9
94.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.2
5.3
4.7
Other Services
36.3
36.1
35.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6
0.2
-0.8
Federal Government
14.2
14.1
13.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-2.7
-2.2
-3.1
149.5
149.2
147.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7
0.7
0.1
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
40
2643.4
1.4
1314.2
1.2
8.9
6519
2786
3733
2652.6
1.4
1316.7
1.1
8.6
4598
3301
1297
2661.8
1.4
1320.9
1.2
8.2
5695
3150
2545
993.1
1.7
79.5
-1.5
913.7
1.9
56.3
7.7
181.6
1.5
43.9
103.6
34.1
21.3
-4.0
48.5
-0.2
169.4
3.3
143.0
2.0
96.1
5.0
35.4
-2.2
13.6
-4.3
148.6
0.2
992.8
1.0
79.4
-0.9
913.5
1.2
56.0
5.6
182.2
1.6
44.0
104.1
34.1
21.3
-2.7
48.4
0.1
168.4
1.5
143.2
1.2
96.0
4.1
35.7
-1.7
13.4
-5.4
148.8
-0.5
994.6
0.5
78.7
-1.9
915.9
0.7
55.8
2.4
182.5
1.6
44.0
104.1
34.4
21.5
-1.7
48.4
0.4
169.4
0.4
143.5
0.3
97.1
3.4
36.0
-0.3
13.5
-4.6
148.2
-0.7
998.8
0.9
79.1
-0.2
919.8
1.0
56.5
1.8
182.9
1.2
44.2
104.1
34.6
21.6
1.6
48.3
0.0
170.9
0.4
144.1
1.4
97.4
3.1
36.0
0.8
13.6
-1.7
148.3
0.3
1003.6
1.1
79.6
0.1
924.1
1.1
57.4
1.9
183.6
1.1
44.5
104.3
34.8
21.6
1.2
48.1
-0.7
172.8
2.0
144.7
1.2
97.8
1.8
36.1
1.9
13.6
0.4
148.4
-0.1
1008.8
1.6
80.4
1.3
928.5
1.6
58.7
4.8
184.2
1.1
44.7
104.5
35.0
21.5
0.7
48.3
-0.4
174.4
3.6
145.0
1.3
98.2
2.3
36.1
1.0
13.6
1.7
148.5
-0.2
1014.2
2.0
80.3
2.0
933.9
2.0
60.2
8.0
184.9
1.3
45.0
104.6
35.3
21.6
0.4
48.4
-0.1
176.2
4.0
145.4
1.3
98.7
1.7
36.0
0.1
13.6
0.8
148.8
0.4
1019.7
2.1
80.4
1.7
939.3
2.1
61.8
9.3
185.4
1.4
45.3
104.5
35.7
21.5
-0.5
48.4
0.2
178.5
4.4
146.0
1.3
99.0
1.6
36.0
-0.2
13.6
-0.2
149.1
0.5
1025.2
2.2
80.5
1.1
944.8
2.2
63.5
10.6
186.0
1.3
45.5
104.5
36.0
21.6
0.3
48.4
0.6
180.5
4.4
146.6
1.3
99.3
1.6
35.9
-0.4
13.5
-0.9
149.4
0.7
2671.0
1.4
1319.9
0.7
7.3
3958
3106
853
2680.5
1.4
1315.6
0.1
7.1
3777
2907
870
2689.5
1.4
1308.3
-0.6
7.0
3792
2577
1216
2698.3
1.4
1324.9
0.3
7.0
4535
2963
1573
2706.8
1.3
1329.0
0.7
6.9
5360
3368
1993
2715.0
1.3
1333.7
1.4
6.9
6060
3660
2399
2723.2
1.3
1338.8
2.3
6.9
6788
3964
2823
2731.0
1.2
1342.6
1.3
6.7
7703
4294
3409
2738.6
1.2
1346.2
1.3
6.6
8531
4799
3732
Quarterly Outlook for Oakland

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
165.7
167.7
170.2
172.3
174.6
176.9
179.6
182.0
184.4
186.7
189.3
191.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.3
Wages and Salaries
74.5
75.6
76.7
77.6
78.7
79.6
80.7
81.7
82.7
83.8
84.8
85.8
Nonwage Income
91.2
92.0
93.5
94.7
95.9
97.3
98.9
100.3
101.6
103.0
104.5
105.8
138.4
139.4
140.8
141.9
143.2
144.5
146.0
147.3
148.5
149.8
151.0
152.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
60.3
60.9
61.7
62.3
62.9
63.6
64.4
65.0
65.7
66.4
67.1
67.8
50.4
50.6
51.0
51.3
51.6
51.9
52.3
52.7
53.0
53.3
53.6
53.9
71.9
72.6
73.2
73.7
74.3
74.8
75.4
76.0
76.7
77.3
78.1
78.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.5
1030.9 1036.8 1042.1 1047.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
Manufacturing
80.6
80.8
80.9
81.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.3
0.7
0.7
0.6
Nonmanufacturing
950.2
956.0
961.2
967.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
65.4
67.4
69.2
70.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
11.3
11.9
11.9
11.6
186.6
187.3
188.0
188.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
Wholesale Trade
45.8
46.2
46.6
46.9
Retail Trade
104.5
104.6
104.6
104.6
36.3
36.6
36.9
37.2
Information
21.9
22.0
22.1
22.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2
1.9
2.6
2.6
48.5
48.6
48.6
48.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
182.2
183.6
184.9
186.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.4
4.2
3.6
3.3
147.1
147.9
148.8
149.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
1.7
1.9
2.2
99.5
99.9
100.0
100.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
1.2
1.0
1.0
Other Services
35.9
35.8
35.8
35.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.3
Federal Government
13.5
13.4
13.3
13.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.3
-1.3
-2.1
-2.2
149.8
150.2
150.5
150.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
2746.0
1.1
1350.4
1.3
6.4
9567
5353
4214
2753.3
1.1
1354.7
1.2
6.3
10239
5681
4558
2760.5
1.1
1358.8
1.2
6.1
10592
5902
4690
2767.8
1.1
1362.8
1.2
5.9
10707
5986
4721
1053.7
2.2
81.0
0.5
972.7
2.4
72.4
10.8
189.4
1.5
47.2
104.7
37.5
22.4
2.2
48.6
0.3
188.3
3.4
150.6
2.4
100.7
1.2
35.8
-0.1
13.1
-2.3
151.3
1.0
1059.5
2.2
81.1
0.3
978.4
2.3
74.0
9.8
190.1
1.5
47.5
104.8
37.8
22.6
2.6
48.6
-0.1
189.9
3.4
151.4
2.4
101.2
1.4
35.8
0.0
13.1
-2.4
151.8
1.1
1064.2
2.1
81.2
0.3
983.0
2.3
75.4
9.0
190.8
1.5
47.8
104.9
38.1
22.8
3.2
48.4
-0.3
190.9
3.2
152.1
2.2
101.6
1.6
35.9
0.3
13.0
-2.0
152.2
1.1
1068.9
2.0
81.3
0.4
987.6
2.1
76.6
8.1
191.5
1.5
48.1
105.0
38.4
23.0
3.3
48.3
-0.6
191.9
2.9
153.0
2.1
101.9
1.5
36.0
0.4
13.0
-2.0
152.6
1.1
1073.2
1.8
81.4
0.4
991.8
2.0
77.4
6.9
192.0
1.4
48.4
105.0
38.7
23.1
2.9
48.3
-0.7
192.9
2.5
153.9
2.2
102.3
1.5
36.0
0.6
12.9
-1.9
153.1
1.1
1077.4
1.7
81.4
0.4
996.0
1.8
78.1
5.6
192.5
1.3
48.6
105.0
38.9
23.2
2.5
48.2
-0.7
194.1
2.2
154.8
2.2
102.6
1.4
36.0
0.6
12.8
-1.9
153.6
1.2
1080.9
1.6
81.5
0.4
999.4
1.7
78.7
4.4
193.0
1.1
48.8
105.0
39.2
23.3
2.1
48.2
-0.6
195.1
2.2
155.3
2.1
103.0
1.3
36.1
0.4
12.8
-2.0
154.2
1.3
1084.5
1.5
81.7
0.5
1002.8
1.5
79.1
3.3
193.4
1.0
49.0
105.0
39.4
23.4
1.7
48.1
-0.6
196.0
2.1
156.3
2.1
103.0
1.1
36.1
0.3
12.7
-1.9
154.8
1.4
2775.2
1.1
1366.8
1.2
5.7
10715
6011
4704
2782.6
1.1
1370.7
1.2
5.5
10658
5908
4750
2790.0
1.1
1373.9
1.1
5.3
10663
5765
4898
2797.3
1.1
1376.9
1.0
5.2
10671
5767
4904
2804.5
1.1
1379.8
1.0
5.0
10577
5667
4910
2811.8
1.0
1382.7
0.9
4.8
10577
5600
4977
2819.0
1.0
1384.7
0.8
4.8
10756
5532
5224
2826.3
1.0
1386.8
0.7
4.7
10917
5550
5367
41
Annual Outlook for Oakland

2006
124.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
7.3
Wages and Salaries
60.7
Nonwage Income
63.6
121.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.5
50.8
Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 49.4
57.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.3
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
129.8
4.4
63.4
66.4
123.3
1.9
52.5
49.9
60.2
4.2
133.1
2.6
63.8
69.4
122.8
-0.4
53.2
49.0
61.6
2.3
126.6
-4.9
60.3
66.3
116.8
-4.8
49.9
46.0
61.9
0.6
130.8
3.3
61.1
69.7
118.7
1.6
50.9
46.2
64.1
3.5
139.4
6.6
63.1
76.3
123.6
4.1
53.6
47.5
65.6
2.3
146.5
5.1
66.7
79.9
127.5
3.2
55.5
48.3
67.7
3.2
149.5
2.1
67.6
81.9
128.7
0.9
55.9
48.1
67.7
0.1
156.7
4.9
70.2
86.6
133.2
3.5
57.8
49.1
69.3
2.4
164.8
5.1
74.1
90.7
137.9
3.5
60.1
50.3
71.6
3.3
173.5
5.3
78.1
95.4
142.6
3.5
62.6
51.5
74.0
3.3
183.2
5.6
82.2
100.9
147.9
3.7
65.4
52.8
76.4
3.2
192.8
5.3
86.3
106.5
152.8
3.3
68.1
54.0
79.1
3.5

1045.3 1048.1 1030.8 968.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
0.3
-1.6
-6.0
Manufacturing
95.8
94.3
93.0
82.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.2
-1.5
-1.4 -11.0
Nonmanufacturing
949.5 953.8 937.8 885.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
0.5
-1.7
-5.5
74.4
72.9
66.1
54.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.8
-2.1
-9.3 -17.2
197.9 199.3 192.9 179.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1
0.7
-3.2
-7.2
Wholesale Trade
48.8
48.7
47.6
43.6
Retail Trade
113.3 113.3 109.4 102.1
35.8
37.3
35.9
33.2
Information
30.1
29.0
27.8
25.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.8
-3.6
-4.1
-9.2
63.7
58.1
52.7
48.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
-3.2
-8.7
-9.3
-8.8
155.1 158.1 163.2 151.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.9
2.0
3.3
-7.4
124.8 128.2 132.7 135.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.0
2.7
3.5
2.1
85.6
88.0
89.0
85.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.1
2.8
1.2
-4.5
Other Services
35.9
36.2
36.1
34.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.0
0.8
-0.3
-4.0
Federal Government
17.3
17.1
17.1
16.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.2
-1.2
0.2
-2.3
164.7 166.8 160.1 155.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
1.3
-4.0
-2.7
948.6
-2.1
79.8
-3.6
868.8
-1.9
48.7
-11.0
173.6
-3.0
41.8
100.3
31.5
23.6
-6.6
48.2
0.4
152.2
0.8
136.5
0.7
85.8
0.9
34.9
0.9
15.7
-5.7
149.6
-4.0
957.4
0.9
80.5
0.9
876.9
0.9
48.8
0.2
175.4
1.0
42.1
101.1
32.2
22.6
-4.3
47.7
-0.9
157.3
3.4
137.3
0.6
88.2
2.9
35.7
2.1
14.6
-7.1
149.3
-0.1
979.6
2.3
80.3
-0.2
899.3
2.6
52.9
8.4
179.0
2.0
43.2
102.9
32.9
22.0
-2.5
48.4
1.4
165.1
4.9
141.0
2.8
92.0
4.2
36.2
1.3
14.2
-2.7
148.7
-0.4
992.5 1006.4 1028.1 1050.8 1071.0 1086.1

1.3
1.4
2.2
2.2
1.8
1.4
79.2
79.8
80.6
81.0
81.3
81.8
-1.4
0.8
1.0
0.5
0.4
0.6
913.3 926.5 947.6 969.8 989.6 1004.3
1.6
1.4
2.3
2.3
2.0
1.5
55.9
58.2
64.5
71.6
76.9
79.3
5.8
4.1
10.8
11.0
7.4
3.1
181.7 183.9 186.3 189.1 191.7 193.5
1.5
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.4
0.9
43.9
44.6
45.7
47.1
48.2
49.1
103.8 104.4 104.5 104.7 105.0 105.0
34.0
34.9
36.1
37.3
38.5
39.4
21.3
21.6
21.8
22.3
23.0
23.4
-3.0
1.0
1.0
2.5
3.0
1.8
48.4
48.3
48.5
48.6
48.3
48.1
0.0
-0.3
0.4
0.3
-0.6
-0.6
169.4 173.6 181.2 187.4 192.4 196.6
2.6
2.5
4.4
3.4
2.7
2.2
143.0 144.8 146.9 150.2 153.4 156.6
1.4
1.3
1.4
2.2
2.2
2.1
95.9
98.0
99.4 100.6 102.1 103.2
4.3
2.2
1.4
1.2
1.5
1.1
35.7
36.0
35.9
35.8
36.0
36.1
-1.3
1.0
-0.5
-0.2
0.5
0.2
13.6
13.6
13.5
13.2
12.9
12.7
-4.3
0.3
-0.9
-2.2
-2.0
-1.9
148.4 148.5 149.6 151.1 152.9 155.1
-0.2
0.1
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.4

Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
42
2448.7 2470.3 2505.0 2540.0 2570.8 2602.9 2638.9 2675.7 2710.8 2742.2 2771.5 2800.9 2829.9
0.3
0.9
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1247.6 1261.6 1282.5 1286.7 1285.6 1294.3 1311.7 1316.2 1331.6 1348.5 1364.8 1378.3 1387.7
0.1
1.1
1.7
0.3
-0.1
0.7
1.3
0.3
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.7
4.4
4.7
6.2
10.4
11.2
10.4
9.0
7.4
6.9
6.5
5.8
5.1
4.7
9488
6246
4255
2829
3159
3081
4455
4306
5686
9010 10668 10622 11068.9
5267
4134
2114
1908
1920
1620
2718
2935
3489
5032
5952
5700 5557.9
4221
2112
2141
921
1239
1461
1737
1371
2197
3978
4716
4922 5511.1
Sacramento MSA
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
Employment in the Sacramento MSA is expected to
increase 2.3% in the year 2015. This is a slight increase
from the 2.1% employment growth in 2014. Employment
growth is expected to be 2.0% for the fourth quarter of
2014 and 2.1% for the first quarter of 2015. Employment
in Sacramento will be led by a 12.1 % increase in the
Construction and Mining sector followed by a 4.2%
increase in the Professional and Business Services
sector. Moderate growth is expected among all sectors
in Sacramento in 2015 with the exception of the Other
Services sector and the Federal Government, with a decline
of 0.2% for both sectors.
Real personal income in the Sacramento MSA is projected

to rise 3.6% in 2015 bringing real personal income to a total
of $ 89.6 Billion. An average increase of 4.1% is anticipated
for the next three years, bringing real personal income to
$101.1 Billion in 2018.
Population will increase 1.4% in 2015 and is expected
to increase 1.5% for the following two years. The
Sacramento labor force will increase 1.5% in 2014 and
continue to maintain that growth rate for 2015 and 2016.
Unemployment will continue to decrease as well with an
8.1% unemployment rate for this year. It is expected to
decline until it reaches 5.3% in 2018.
Sacramento Real Personal Income

10%
Sacramento Payroll Employment

(Thousands)
950
8%
900
6%
850
4%
800
2%
750
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
700
-2%
650
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-4%
Sacramento and California Unemployment Rate

(percent)
14%
Sacramento Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011

(California = 100)
200

12%
180
160
140
10%
120
100
8%
80
6%
60
40
4%
20
0
Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
2%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
43
METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO
Quarterly Outlook for Sacramento

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2
94.9
98.2
95.4
96.3
97.1
98.5
100.0
101.1
102.4
103.7
105.2
106.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.7
7.9
2.3
2.6
2.4
0.3
4.8
5.1
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.3
Wages and Salaries
48.6
50.5
49.1
49.4
49.4
50.2
50.7
51.3
52.0
52.6
53.4
54.1
Nonwage Income
46.3
47.6
46.3
46.9
47.8
48.3
49.3
49.8
50.5
51.1
51.8
52.4
82.4
84.9
82.3
83.1
83.5
84.5
85.5
86.1
86.9
87.6
88.5
89.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.0
6.1
0.9
1.5
1.3
-0.6
3.8
3.6
4.1
3.7
3.6
3.7
43.1
44.5
43.1
43.4
43.7
44.2
44.7
45.1
45.5
45.9
46.4
46.8
37.4
38.5
37.2
37.5
37.6
37.9
38.2
38.4
38.6
38.8
39.1
39.2
Average Annual Wage (Ths)
58.6
60.9
58.8
58.9
58.8
59.2
59.5
60.0
60.5
60.9
61.4
61.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6
7.4
0.7
1.1
0.4
-2.7
1.2
1.9
2.8
2.8
3.1
3.1
825.6
825.7
829.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
1.5
1.6
Manufacturing
34.1
34.4
35.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.0
2.3
4.5
Nonmanufacturing
791.5
791.3
794.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
1.5
1.5
38.9
36.3
36.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.6
-3.8
-1.5
139.0
141.4
142.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.6
4.2
4.1
Wholesale Trade
25.3
25.5
25.8
Retail Trade
91.6
93.1
93.7
22.1
22.7
22.7
Information
15.2
15.0
14.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
-6.2
-5.0
-5.5
47.8
48.1
48.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.0
2.7
2.1
112.7
111.9
113.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
7.8
5.3
6.2
105.2
106.9
107.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.8
3.3
2.2
83.9
82.9
83.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8
0.5
1.0
Other Services
28.2
27.8
27.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.4
-1.0
-4.6
Federal Government
13.6
13.7
13.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-2.6
-1.6
-0.2
207.1
207.2
207.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.9
-1.0
-0.8
Population (Ths)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
44
2201.5
0.9
1048.8
0.3
10.3
3609
3252
357
2206.6
0.9
1044.7
-0.2
9.9
4538
3984
555
2211.7
0.9
1044.5
-0.3
9.5
4708
3906
802
834.8
1.4
34.9
3.5
799.8
1.3
38.1
0.3
142.6
3.2
25.8
94.1
22.7
14.5
-6.7
48.4
1.9
113.6
2.4
107.5
2.6
87.1
3.7
27.3
-4.4
13.6
-1.0
207.0
-0.5
835.7
1.2
34.7
2.0
801.0
1.2
38.6
-0.6
143.5
3.2
26.1
94.6
22.8
14.4
-5.4
48.4
1.4
111.4
-1.2
108.5
3.1
88.6
5.6
27.0
-4.2
13.5
-0.9
207.1
0.0
842.7
2.1
34.3
-0.1
808.3
2.2
41.2
13.5
143.8
1.7
26.3
94.4
23.1
14.5
-3.4
48.8
1.3
112.1
0.1
109.9
2.8
89.9
8.5
27.3
-1.6
13.5
-2.1
207.4
0.1
847.6
2.2
34.5
-1.8
813.1
2.3
42.3
14.5
144.0
1.2
26.3
94.5
23.2
14.6
-1.0
48.7
1.0
112.8
-0.8
110.5
3.0
90.1
7.9
27.5
0.9
13.6
-1.6
209.1
1.0
851.2
2.0
34.8
-0.3
816.4
2.1
42.9
12.5
144.5
1.3
26.5
94.7
23.3
14.5
0.1
48.5
0.4
113.8
0.1
111.0
3.3
90.4
3.8
27.5
1.0
13.7
0.1
209.5
1.2
855.3
2.3
35.2
1.4
820.1
2.4
43.8
13.4
145.1
1.1
26.6
95.1
23.5
14.4
0.5
48.7
0.6
114.6
2.9
111.4
2.7
90.7
2.4
27.6
2.2
13.7
1.5
210.0
1.4
859.9
2.0
35.2
2.7
824.6
2.0
44.8
8.7
145.7
1.3
26.7
95.3
23.7
14.5
-0.2
48.9
0.3
115.8
3.3
111.8
1.7
91.2
1.4
27.5
0.7
13.6
1.4
210.8
1.6
865.6
2.1
35.4
2.4
830.2
2.1
46.9
10.9
146.1
1.5
26.9
95.4
23.9
14.4
-1.4
48.9
0.4
117.2
3.9
112.5
1.8
91.5
1.5
27.5
0.1
13.7
0.5
211.6
1.2
870.4
2.3
35.4
1.8
835.0
2.3
48.1
12.0
146.7
1.5
27.1
95.6
24.1
14.4
-0.8
49.0
0.9
118.4
4.1
113.1
1.9
91.8
1.5
27.5
-0.1
13.6
-0.1
212.3
1.4
2216.8
0.9
1044.6
-0.5
8.5
4192
3769
424
2222.2
0.9
1043.9
-0.5
8.3
4749
3652
1096
2229.0
1.0
1042.1
-0.3
8.3
4143
3441
702
2235.9
1.1
1053.3
0.8
8.2
4918
3771
1147
2243.2
1.2
1057.1
1.2
8.1
6098
4462
1637
2250.9
1.3
1061.6
1.7
8.0
7067
5048
2020
2258.4
1.3
1066.5
2.3
7.9
8051
5688
2363
2266.6
1.4
1070.0
1.6
7.7
9306
6475
2831
2274.8
1.4
1073.7
1.6
7.4
10657
7621
3036
Quarterly Outlook for Sacramento

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
107.8
109.2
111.0
112.6
114.2
116.0
117.9
119.6
121.3
123.1
125.0
126.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.1
6.0
5.9
Wages and Salaries
54.8
55.6
56.4
57.2
57.9
58.7
59.5
60.3
61.2
62.0
62.8
63.6
Nonwage Income
52.9
53.6
54.6
55.5
56.3
57.2
58.3
59.3
60.2
61.1
62.2
63.1
90.0
90.8
91.9
92.8
93.7
94.7
95.8
96.8
97.8
98.7
99.7
100.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.0
47.2
47.7
48.3
48.8
49.3
49.9
50.5
51.0
51.6
52.1
52.7
53.2
39.4
39.6
39.9
40.2
40.4
40.7
41.0
41.3
41.6
41.8
42.1
42.3
62.3
62.9
63.4
63.8
64.3
64.9
65.4
65.9
66.5
67.0
67.6
68.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
875.6
881.4
886.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4
2.5
2.4
Manufacturing
35.6
35.7
35.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.0
1.2
1.2
Nonmanufacturing
840.1
845.7
850.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4
2.6
2.4
49.3
50.7
51.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
12.6
13.1
10.7
147.4
148.0
148.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6
1.6
1.8
Wholesale Trade
27.3
27.5
27.7
Retail Trade
95.8
96.0
96.3
24.3
24.5
24.7
Information
14.6
14.7
14.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1
1.4
2.4
49.1
49.2
49.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7
0.7
0.8
119.7
121.0
122.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.4
4.5
4.1
113.7
114.4
115.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
2.3
2.5
92.0
92.4
92.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
1.3
1.2
Other Services
27.5
27.5
27.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
Federal Government
13.6
13.6
13.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.5
-0.6
-1.3
213.2
214.3
215.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.5
1.6
1.7
Population (Ths)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
2283.2
1.4
1077.8
1.5
7.2
12294
8902
3392
2291.6
1.5
1081.9
1.4
7.0
13537
9890
3646
2300.0
1.5
1086.0
1.5
6.8
14503
10743
3760
891.6
2.4
35.8
1.2
855.7
2.5
53.1
10.4
149.4
1.8
27.9
96.5
25.0
14.8
2.8
49.3
0.8
123.2
4.0
116.2
2.7
92.9
1.2
27.5
0.0
13.4
-1.5
215.9
1.7
896.0
2.3
35.9
1.0
860.0
2.4
53.2
7.8
150.2
1.9
28.2
96.8
25.2
15.0
2.5
49.4
0.6
124.6
4.1
116.9
2.8
93.3
1.3
27.5
0.1
13.4
-1.6
216.7
1.6
901.4
2.3
36.0
0.8
865.5
2.3
54.2
6.9
151.1
2.0
28.4
97.2
25.4
15.1
2.7
49.4
0.3
125.8
4.0
117.7
2.9
93.8
1.5
27.5
0.3
13.3
-1.7
217.6
1.6
906.3
2.3
36.1
0.8
870.2
2.3
55.2
6.3
151.7
2.0
28.6
97.5
25.7
15.2
3.5
49.3
0.1
126.7
3.9
118.4
2.7
94.2
1.8
27.6
0.6
13.3
-1.3
218.5
1.6
911.1
2.2
36.2
0.9
875.0
2.2
56.0
5.6
152.4
2.0
28.8
97.7
25.9
15.4
3.9
49.3
-0.1
127.6
3.6
119.3
2.7
94.7
1.9
27.7
0.8
13.3
-1.3
219.4
1.6
915.7
2.2
36.2
0.9
879.5
2.3
56.6
6.5
153.0
1.9
29.0
98.0
26.1
15.5
3.6
49.3
-0.2
128.5
3.2
120.2
2.8
95.1
2.0
27.8
0.9
13.2
-1.2
220.3
1.6
920.4
2.1
36.3
0.9
884.1
2.2
57.2
5.6
153.6
1.7
29.2
98.2
26.3
15.6
3.3
49.3
-0.2
129.5
2.9
121.1
2.9
95.6
1.9
27.8
1.1
13.2
-1.2
221.4
1.7
924.7
2.0
36.4
0.8
888.4
2.1
57.6
4.4
154.1
1.6
29.3
98.3
26.5
15.7
2.8
49.3
-0.1
130.4
2.9
121.7
2.8
96.1
1.9
27.9
0.9
13.1
-1.3
222.5
1.8
929.1
2.0
36.5
0.9
892.6
2.0
58.0
3.5
154.6
1.5
29.5
98.5
26.6
15.8
2.3
49.3
0.0
131.3
2.9
122.7
2.8
96.3
1.8
27.9
0.8
13.1
-1.3
223.6
1.9
2308.5
1.5
1090.0
1.5
6.6
15211
11375
3837
2317.2
1.5
1094.1
1.5
6.4
15616
11823
3793
2326.0
1.5
1098.3
1.5
6.2
15859
12064
3795
2334.8
1.5
1102.2
1.5
6.0
15971
12059
3911
2343.8
1.5
1106.0
1.5
5.8
16081
12189
3892
2352.9
1.5
1109.8
1.4
5.6
16173
12303
3870
2362.1
1.6
1113.6
1.4
5.5
16494
12588
3906
2371.4
1.6
1117.4
1.4
5.4
16843
12764
4079
2380.8
1.6
1121.1
1.4
5.3
16876
12723
4153
45
Annual Outlook for Sacramento

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
80.2
6.2
44.3
35.9
78.1
3.4
38.9
37.9
49.0
4.2
84.0
4.8
46.4
37.6
79.8
2.2
40.3
38.3
51.1
4.3
86.4
2.9
47.2
39.2
79.6
-0.2
40.9
37.7
53.2
4.1
84.6
-2.1
45.2
39.3
78.0
-2.0
39.6
36.5
54.1
1.7
85.9
1.6
44.9
41.0
78.0
-0.1
39.8
36.1
55.1
1.8
90.7
5.6
46.3
44.4
80.4
3.2
41.6
36.9
56.9
3.3
95.0
4.8
48.8
46.2
82.7
2.9
43.2
37.6
59.0
3.7
96.8
1.9
49.5
47.3
83.3
0.8
43.6
37.5
58.9
-0.1
101.8
5.2
51.6
50.2
86.5
3.8
45.3
38.5
60.2
2.2
107.2
5.3
54.5
52.7
89.6
3.6
47.0
39.3
62.1
3.1
113.5
5.9
57.6
55.9
93.3
4.0
49.1
40.3
64.1
3.2
120.5
6.2
60.7
59.7
97.3
4.3
51.3
41.4
66.2
3.3
127.6
5.9
64.0
63.5
101.1
4.0
53.5
42.4
68.5
3.4

899.0 902.8 882.1 831.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
0.4
-2.3
-5.8
Manufacturing
42.8
40.8
38.7
34.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.6
-4.6
-5.2 -11.1
Nonmanufacturing
856.2 862.0 843.4 797.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2
0.7
-2.2
-5.5
71.4
67.6
56.9
44.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
-3.7
-5.3 -15.9 -22.6
153.6 153.1 146.7 134.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.1
-0.3
-4.2
-8.0
Wholesale Trade
28.4
27.9
26.5
24.1
Retail Trade
100.7
99.8
95.1
87.6
24.5
25.4
25.1
23.2
Information
20.0
20.1
19.2
18.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.5
0.3
-4.1
-4.8
64.3
61.5
57.2
52.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9
-4.4
-7.1
-7.5
112.5 112.0 110.0 101.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.7
-0.4
-1.8
-8.1
92.4
97.1
99.7
99.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.4
5.1
2.7
0.1
85.3
86.6
85.8
81.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.9
1.5
-0.9
-4.6
Other Services
28.3
28.9
29.6
28.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.6
2.3
2.3
-2.6
Federal Government
12.6
12.4
12.5
13.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.3
-1.9
1.0
6.2
215.8 222.7 225.8 222.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
3.2
1.4
-1.7
809.9
-2.6
32.8
-4.7
777.1
-2.5
38.8
-11.5
132.5
-1.7
22.8
88.0
21.7
17.2
-6.0
48.3
-8.7
102.2
1.1
99.4
-0.3
80.2
-2.0
28.1
-2.4
14.6
10.6
215.6
-2.9
808.7
-0.1
33.2
1.3
775.5
-0.2
37.3
-3.8
134.1
1.2
23.6
89.4
21.1
16.3
-5.1
46.6
-3.4
104.2
2.0
102.6
3.2
81.7
1.8
28.0
-0.5
14.0
-4.1
210.6
-2.3
822.7
1.7
34.0
2.2
788.7
1.7
37.7
1.0
138.8
3.5
25.3
91.6
21.9
15.3
-6.1
47.7
2.2
110.6
6.2
105.5
2.8
83.4
2.0
28.3
0.9
13.7
-1.9
207.8
-1.4
835.7
1.6
34.8
2.5
800.9
1.5
38.7
2.9
143.0
3.1
26.0
94.2
22.8
14.5
-5.2
48.4
1.7
112.7
1.9
108.3
2.7
87.3
4.7
27.2
-3.7
13.6
-1.1
207.1
-0.3
853.5
2.1
34.9
0.5
818.6
2.2
43.5
12.3
144.8
1.3
26.5
94.9
23.4
14.5
-0.2
48.7
0.6
114.3
1.4
111.2
2.7
90.6
3.9
27.5
1.2
13.6
0.3
209.9
1.3
873.2
2.3
35.5
1.6
837.7
2.3
48.7
12.1
147.1
1.5
27.2
95.7
24.2
14.5
0.1
49.0
0.7
119.1
4.2
113.4
2.0
91.9
1.4
27.5
-0.2
13.6
-0.2
212.9
1.4
893.8
2.4
35.9
1.1
857.9
2.4
53.1
9.0
149.8
1.9
28.1
96.7
25.1
14.9
2.6
49.3
0.6
123.9
4.0
116.5
2.7
93.1
1.3
27.5
0.1
13.4
-1.5
216.3
1.6
913.4
2.2
36.2
0.9
877.2
2.2
56.3
6.0
152.7
1.9
28.9
97.8
26.0
15.4
3.6
49.3
-0.1
128.1
3.4
119.8
2.8
94.9
1.9
27.7
0.9
13.2
-1.3
219.9
1.6
931.1
1.9
36.5
0.9
894.6
2.0
58.1
3.3
154.8
1.4
29.6
98.6
26.6
15.8
2.6
49.3
0.0
131.8
2.9
123.1
2.8
96.6
1.8
27.9
0.7
13.1
-1.3
224.1
1.9
2061.0 2085.6 2111.2 2135.5 2157.6 2178.8 2199.0 2219.9 2247.1 2279.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.2
1.4
1025.5 1037.8 1046.4 1052.9 1049.3 1044.7 1047.7 1043.8 1059.6 1075.8
1.1
1.2
0.8
0.6
-0.3
-0.4
0.3
-0.4
1.5
1.5
4.7
5.3
7.1
11.1
12.5
11.9
10.4
8.7
8.1
7.3
11777
8123
5537
2931
2562
2817
3406
4448
6534 11449
9453
7055
4299
2728
2248
2072
2931
3692
4742
8222
2324
1068
1238
203
314
745
475
756
1792
3226
2312.9
1.5
1092.1
1.5
6.5
15298
11501
3796
2348.4
1.5
1107.9
1.4
5.7
16180
12285
3895
2385.5
1.6
1122.8
1.3
5.3
16951
12703
4248

Pct Chg Year Ago
Wages and Salaries
Nonwage Income
Pct Chg Year Ago
Pct Chg Year Ago

Population (Ths)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
46
San Francisco MSA

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
Non-farm employment in the San Francisco MSA is
expected to increase 2.6% for the year 2014 followed with
a slightly lower increase of 2.1% for 2015. Job growth is
expected to be 2% in the first quarter of 2014, followed
by 2.9% growth in the second quarter of 2014. The
Construction & Mining and Information sectors will
lead job growth of 2014 with 6.1% and 5.9% growth,
respectively. Job growth will increase in all sectors in San
Francisco with the exception of the Financial Activities
sector which is expected to decrease by 1% in 2014.
In 2014, with the increase in employment, real personal
income is expected to increase 4.9% from 2013. Over the
next three years Real Personal Income is expected to see an
average growth rate of 3.7%. Per Capita Income is expected

to see constant growth of 5.3% and 4.4% in 2014 and 2015,
respectively.
San Franciscos population is expected to grow slightly
by 1% in 2014 and another 0.7% in 2015. As surrounding
regions continue to grow, San Francisco will maintain
a slow growth rate through the projected years. As the
labor force increases, employment is expected to increase
as well which should reflect in gradual decreases to the
unemployment rate of 5.0% for 2014 and 4.7% for 2015.
This gradual decrease in the unemployment rate is projected
to decline below 4% in 2017.
San Francisco Real Personal Income

San Francisco Payroll Employment

(Thousands)
20%
1150
15%
1100
10%
1050
5%
1000
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
950
900
-5%
850
-10%
800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-15%
San Francisco and California Unemployment

Rates (percent)
13%
200
11%
San Francisco Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011

(California = 100)
180
160
140
9%
120
100
7%
80
5%
60
40
3%
20
0
Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
1%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
47
METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO
Quarterly Outlook for San Francisco

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2
144.8
152.9
146.7
149.5
152.7
155.1
157.5
159.3
161.4
163.6
165.8
167.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.5
11.8
3.9
4.9
5.4
1.5
7.3
6.6
5.7
5.4
5.3
5.3
Wages and Salaries
88.5
94.6
90.5
92.5
94.5
96.1
97.3
98.6
99.8
101.2
102.7
104.2
Nonwage Income
56.4
58.3
56.2
56.9
58.2
59.0
60.2
60.8
61.6
62.3
63.2
63.6
125.8
132.3
126.6
129.0
131.2
133.0
134.6
135.6
136.8
138.2
139.6
140.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.9
9.9
2.5
3.8
4.3
0.6
6.3
5.1
4.3
3.9
3.7
3.7
79.3
83.4
79.8
81.1
82.6
83.7
84.8
85.6
86.5
87.5
88.5
89.4
68.9
72.2
68.9
70.0
71.0
71.8
72.5
72.9
73.3
73.9
74.5
75.0
87.9
93.0
88.7
90.1
91.0
91.8
92.4
93.2
94.0
94.8
95.7
96.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8
10.2
1.8
3.5
3.6
-1.3
4.2
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.6
1003.1 1012.8 1016.6 1023.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.2
4.2
3.4
3.0
Manufacturing
35.9
36.2
35.9
36.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.5
1.2
1.3
0.8
Nonmanufacturing
967.2
976.6
980.8
987.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.4
4.4
3.5
3.0
36.0
36.5
36.8
38.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
6.4
8.1
6.9
9.3
152.9
154.3
154.8
155.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.6
4.0
3.1
2.3
Wholesale Trade
26.2
26.6
26.7
26.8
Retail Trade
89.2
89.7
90.1
89.6
37.5
38.0
38.0
38.8
Information
46.2
46.9
47.2
48.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
8.8
7.7
5.4
7.0
78.6
79.3
79.2
78.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4
2.9
1.7
0.6
230.4
233.5
234.9
239.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
8.4
7.8
5.9
4.8
114.6
114.8
114.8
115.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.0
2.5
2.7
1.7
133.7
136.0
137.6
138.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.3
5.0
4.7
4.5
Other Services
40.6
40.7
40.4
40.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.0
3.4
1.5
0.4
Federal Government
18.5
18.5
18.3
18.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
-3.3
-2.0
-2.9
-3.4
115.6
116.1
116.7
115.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.9
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
48
1826.9
1.2
1015.8
2.7
6.8
6014
550
5464
1832.6
1.2
1020.0
2.3
6.5
5548
652
4897
1838.3
1.3
1023.6
2.0
6.2
4732
487
4245
1843.7
1.2
1026.4
1.6
5.4
5388
550
4838
1034.7
3.2
36.4
1.4
998.4
3.2
38.1
5.9
157.7
3.1
27.0
91.8
38.9
50.1
8.3
77.9
-0.9
243.0
5.5
116.2
1.4
139.9
4.6
40.9
0.6
18.1
-2.4
116.5
0.8
1043.3
3.0
36.8
1.8
1006.5
3.1
39.0
6.8
158.0
2.4
27.0
91.9
39.1
51.4
9.7
77.0
-3.0
246.9
5.7
116.8
1.8
141.5
4.0
40.7
0.0
18.0
-2.6
117.2
0.9
1048.5
3.1
36.9
3.0
1011.6
3.1
39.4
7.1
158.3
2.3
27.1
92.0
39.2
52.2
10.6
77.1
-2.6
249.0
6.0
117.3
2.2
142.1
3.2
40.8
0.8
18.2
-0.4
117.2
0.4
1053.5
2.9
37.1
3.2
1016.4
2.9
39.9
4.2
158.9
2.5
27.2
92.3
39.4
52.2
6.9
77.0
-2.2
251.7
5.3
117.7
2.4
142.7
3.2
40.8
0.9
18.3
0.9
117.1
1.1
1058.1
2.3
37.4
2.9
1020.8
2.2
40.7
6.6
159.4
1.1
27.3
92.6
39.6
52.0
3.9
77.5
-0.5
253.6
4.4
118.0
1.5
143.5
2.5
40.8
0.0
18.3
1.0
117.0
0.5
1063.9
2.0
37.3
1.3
1026.6
2.0
41.5
6.5
160.0
1.3
27.4
92.8
39.9
52.5
2.1
77.9
1.2
256.0
3.7
118.2
1.2
144.3
2.0
40.7
0.0
18.2
0.9
117.2
0.0
1069.6
2.0
37.3
1.0
1032.3
2.0
42.5
7.8
160.4
1.3
27.5
92.7
40.1
52.5
0.6
78.0
1.1
259.3
4.1
118.7
1.2
144.8
2.0
40.7
-0.3
18.2
-0.4
117.3
0.1
1075.4
2.1
37.3
0.4
1038.1
2.1
43.5
9.0
160.8
1.2
27.7
92.8
40.3
52.9
1.4
78.1
1.3
262.4
4.3
119.0
1.1
145.3
1.8
40.6
-0.5
18.1
-1.1
117.4
0.2
1848.9
1.2
1027.6
1.2
5.3
5330
551
4780
1853.5
1.1
1028.4
0.8
5.2
5684
598
5086
1857.8
1.1
1040.5
1.6
5.1
5381
652
4729
1861.9
1.0
1043.3
1.6
5.1
5160
689
4471
1865.8
0.9
1046.3
1.8
5.0
5123
705
4418
1869.5
0.9
1049.7
2.1
4.9
5105
723
4382
1873.0
0.8
1051.8
1.1
4.8
5238
747
4490
1876.2
0.8
1053.7
1.0
4.8
5131
800
4330
Quarterly Outlook for San Francisco

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
169.8
171.9
174.6
176.8
179.2
181.4
184.2
186.8
189.3
192.0
194.6
197.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.2
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.7
5.5
Wages and Salaries
105.7
107.1
108.5
109.9
111.3
112.7
114.2
115.6
117.0
118.4
119.8
121.1
Nonwage Income
64.2
64.9
66.1
66.9
67.8
68.6
70.0
71.2
72.4
73.6
74.9
76.0
141.8
142.9
144.5
145.6
147.0
148.1
149.8
151.2
152.6
154.0
155.3
156.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.7
3.5
90.4
91.4
92.7
93.8
94.9
95.9
97.4
98.6
99.8
101.1
102.4
103.6
75.5
76.0
76.7
77.2
77.8
78.4
79.2
79.8
80.5
81.1
81.7
82.3
97.4
98.3
99.2
100.1
100.9
101.8
102.8
103.7
104.7
105.6
106.7
107.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
1080.7 1085.9 1090.2 1094.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.8
Manufacturing
37.3
37.3
37.3
37.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Nonmanufacturing
1043.4 1048.6 1052.9 1057.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
44.7
45.9
47.1
48.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
9.9
10.6
10.9
10.7
161.3
161.7
162.1
162.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
Wholesale Trade
27.8
28.0
28.1
28.3
Retail Trade
92.8
92.9
92.9
92.9
40.6
40.9
41.1
41.3
Information
53.5
53.6
53.7
54.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8
2.1
2.4
2.1
78.3
78.4
78.5
78.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.5
264.9
267.2
269.0
271.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.4
4.4
3.7
3.3
119.3
119.8
120.5
121.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
145.5
145.8
146.0
146.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
1.1
0.8
0.7
Other Services
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.8
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
Federal Government
18.0
17.9
17.7
17.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.6
-1.7
-2.4
-2.5
117.5
117.8
117.9
118.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
1879.0
0.7
1055.9
0.9
4.7
5264
869
4396
1881.6
0.6
1058.0
0.8
4.6
5330
912
4418
1883.9
0.6
1060.0
0.8
4.5
5330
949
4381
1886.1
0.5
1061.8
0.8
4.4
5356
979
4377
1099.5
1.7
37.2
-0.2
1062.4
1.8
49.2
10.2
163.0
1.1
28.5
92.9
41.6
54.4
1.6
78.4
0.2
273.2
3.1
121.5
1.8
146.7
0.8
40.3
-0.5
17.5
-2.6
118.2
0.6
1103.7
1.6
37.1
-0.4
1066.6
1.7
50.2
9.2
163.4
1.0
28.6
93.0
41.8
54.7
2.1
78.3
-0.2
274.7
2.8
122.0
1.8
147.3
1.0
40.3
-0.4
17.4
-2.7
118.3
0.5
1107.4
1.6
37.1
-0.4
1070.3
1.7
51.1
8.4
163.8
1.0
28.7
93.0
42.0
55.1
2.5
78.0
-0.5
276.1
2.6
122.4
1.6
147.8
1.2
40.3
-0.2
17.3
-2.3
118.4
0.5
1110.7
1.4
37.1
-0.3
1073.6
1.5
51.7
7.4
164.1
1.0
28.9
93.0
42.3
55.4
2.5
77.8
-0.8
277.3
2.3
122.9
1.5
148.1
1.2
40.3
-0.1
17.2
-2.3
118.6
0.5
1113.9
1.3
37.1
-0.3
1076.8
1.4
52.2
6.1
164.4
0.9
29.0
93.0
42.5
55.6
2.2
77.7
-0.9
278.8
2.0
123.4
1.6
148.6
1.3
40.3
0.0
17.1
-2.2
118.7
0.4
1117.1
1.2
37.1
-0.2
1080.0
1.3
52.6
4.8
164.6
0.8
29.1
92.9
42.6
55.7
1.8
77.5
-1.0
280.4
2.1
124.0
1.6
149.0
1.2
40.3
0.1
17.0
-2.2
118.9
0.5
1119.3
1.1
37.0
-0.4
1082.3
1.1
52.9
3.6
164.8
0.6
29.2
92.8
42.8
55.9
1.4
77.4
-0.9
281.4
1.9
124.2
1.5
149.4
1.1
40.3
-0.1
16.9
-2.3
119.2
0.7
1121.2
0.9
37.0
-0.3
1084.2
1.0
53.1
2.7
165.0
0.5
29.3
92.7
43.0
56.1
1.2
77.1
-0.9
282.2
1.7
124.8
1.5
149.5
0.9
40.2
-0.2
16.8
-2.3
119.5
0.7
1888.1
0.5
1063.5
0.7
4.2
5359
1005
4353
1890.1
0.5
1065.2
0.7
4.1
5364
987
4377
1892.1
0.4
1066.6
0.6
4.0
5441
949
4491
1894.2
0.4
1068.0
0.6
3.9
5412
936
4476
1896.3
0.4
1069.3
0.5
3.8
5381
926
4455
1898.3
0.4
1070.5
0.5
3.7
5418
920
4499
1900.3
0.4
1071.0
0.4
3.6
5355
909
4446
1902.3
0.4
1071.5
0.3
3.6
5273
920
4353
49
Annual Outlook for San Francisco

2006
123.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
9.2
Wages and Salaries
71.2
Nonwage Income
52.6
120.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
6.4
72.5
Real Per Capita Income (2005$) 70.6
73.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.7
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
129.3
4.5
77.2
52.1
122.9
1.9
75.1
71.3
77.8
6.2
129.7
0.3
78.5
51.1
119.6
-2.7
74.3
68.5
78.5
0.9
121.7
-6.1
75.5
46.2
112.3
-6.1
68.9
63.5
79.6
1.3
125.8
3.3
76.0
49.8
114.1
1.7
70.6
64.1
80.8
1.6
135.8
8.0
81.6
54.3
120.4
5.5
75.4
66.8
84.7
4.7
145.3
7.0
89.0
56.3
126.5
5.0
79.7
69.3
88.8
4.9
151.0
3.9
93.4
57.6
130.0
2.8
81.8
70.4
90.4
1.9
160.4
6.3
99.2
61.2
136.3
4.9
86.1
73.1
93.6
3.6
168.8
5.2
104.9
64.0
141.2
3.6
89.9
75.2
97.0
3.6
178.0
5.4
110.6
67.4
146.3
3.6
94.3
77.5
100.5
3.6
188.1
5.7
116.3
71.8
151.9
3.8
99.2
80.1
104.2
3.7
198.3
5.4
121.7
76.5
157.2
3.5
104.2
82.6
108.1
3.8

967.5 988.8 996.6 945.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
2.2
0.8
-5.2
Manufacturing
43.5
43.5
42.1
38.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2
0.0
-3.1
-9.6
Nonmanufacturing
924.0 945.3 954.4 907.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
2.3
1.0
-5.0
43.4
45.6
44.5
35.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.4
5.3
-2.5 -20.7
162.4 162.6 160.6 149.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.6
0.1
-1.2
-6.6
Wholesale Trade
26.7
27.1
26.7
24.5
Retail Trade
93.5
94.9
94.0
87.7
42.1
40.6
39.8
37.8
Information
39.0
39.4
40.8
39.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
-4.5
1.2
3.4
-2.8
88.7
88.8
86.8
79.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1
0.2
-2.3
-8.3
195.0 203.8 210.0 198.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.3
4.5
3.1
-5.6
103.1 105.2 107.4 108.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
2.0
2.1
1.2
119.9 124.2 126.7 122.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.3
3.6
2.0
-3.6
Other Services
37.3
38.6
39.3
38.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1
3.5
2.0
-3.5
Federal Government
19.9
19.3
19.2
18.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
-2.6
-2.7
-0.5
-1.8
115.5 117.6 119.1 116.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.6
1.9
1.2
-2.0
935.9
-0.9
37.0
-2.9
899.0
-0.9
32.6
-7.4
147.0
-1.9
23.9
86.8
36.4
39.0
-1.4
77.1
-3.1
197.5
-0.4
109.0
0.3
122.7
0.5
37.8
-0.5
20.2
6.8
116.1
-0.5
960.0
2.6
36.3
-1.7
923.6
2.7
33.4
2.4
147.7
0.5
24.6
87.2
36.0
42.1
7.8
76.9
-0.3
210.2
6.5
110.6
1.5
127.6
4.0
38.8
2.8
19.1
-5.2
117.2
1.0
998.4 1029.6 1056.0 1077.9 1097.1 1112.3 1122.1

4.0
3.1
2.6
2.1
1.8
1.4
0.9
35.8
36.2
37.2
37.3
37.2
37.1
37.0
-1.5
1.3
2.6
0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
962.6 993.4 1018.8 1040.6 1059.9 1075.2 1085.1
4.2
3.2
2.6
2.1
1.9
1.4
0.9
35.5
38.1
40.4
44.2
48.7
51.9
53.2
6.4
7.2
6.1
9.3
10.2
6.7
2.5
152.2 156.4 159.2 161.1 162.7 164.2 164.9
3.1
2.7
1.8
1.2
1.1
0.9
0.4
26.1
26.9
27.2
27.7
28.4
28.9
29.3
88.9
90.9
92.4
92.8
92.9
93.0
92.6
37.3
38.7
39.5
40.5
41.5
42.4
42.9
45.9
49.4
52.2
53.1
54.2
55.4
56.2
9.0
7.6
5.9
1.7
2.1
2.3
1.3
78.5
78.2
77.4
78.2
78.4
77.8
77.0
2.2
-0.4
-1.0
1.0
0.3
-0.8
-0.9
228.4 241.0 252.6 263.5 272.0 278.2 282.8
8.7
5.5
4.8
4.3
3.2
2.3
1.7
113.6 115.7 117.8 119.2 121.2 123.2 124.9
2.7
1.9
1.8
1.2
1.7
1.6
1.4
133.4 139.3 143.1 145.4 146.6 148.4 149.6
4.5
4.5
2.7
1.6
0.8
1.2
0.8
40.4
40.6
40.8
40.6
40.3
40.3
40.2
4.0
0.6
0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.1
-0.3
18.7
18.1
18.3
18.0
17.6
17.2
16.8
-2.2
-2.8
0.6
-1.2
-2.6
-2.3
-2.3
116.1 116.6 117.1 117.5 118.1 118.7 119.6
-1.0
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.8

Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
50
1705.9 1722.4 1746.1 1767.4 1781.8 1801.7 1824.1 1846.1 1863.8 1877.4 1887.1 1895.2 1903.2
0.4
1.0
1.4
1.2
0.8
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.0
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
912.6 935.5 963.2 966.0 965.8 985.0 1012.4 1026.5 1045.0 1054.9 1062.6 1068.6 1071.6
0.9
2.5
3.0
0.3
0.0
2.0
2.8
1.4
1.8
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.3
3.9
4.0
5.0
8.5
9.0
8.1
6.9
5.5
5.0
4.7
4.3
3.8
3.6
3636
3159
2805
928
978
2775
3660
5284
5192
5241
5352
5413 5264.3
946
981
634
404
378
402
474
546
692
832
980
933 921.9
2691
2178
2171
524
600
2373
3186
4737
4500
4409
4372
4480 4342.3
San Jose MS A
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
Non-farm employment in the San Jose MSA is expected
to increase 2.3% for the year 2014 followed with another
increase of 2.4% for 2015. Job growth is expected to be
2.3% in the first quarter of 2015, followed by 2.4% growth
in the second quarter. The Construction & Mining and
Information sectors will lead job growth of 2014 with
5.6% and 3.8% growth, respectively. Job growth will
increase in all sectors in San Jose with the exception of the
Financial Activities sector which is expected to decrease by
0.1% in 2014.
In 2014, with the increase in employment, real personal
income is expected to increase 4.3% from 2013. Over the

next four years Real Personal Income is expected to see a
consistent growth rate of 4.3% or higher.
San Joses population is expected to grow slightly by 1.4%
in 2014 and another 1.3% in 2015. San Jose will maintain
a slow growth rate through the projected years of at least
1.1%. As the labor force increases, employment is expected
to increase as well which should reflect in gradual decreases
to the unemployment rate of 6.4% for 2014 and 5.9% for
2015. This gradual decrease in the unemployment rate is
projected to decline to 4.3% in 2018.
San Jose Real Personal Income

San Jose Payroll Employment

(Thousands)
35%
1100
25%
1050
15%
1000
950
5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
900
-5%
850
-15%
800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-25%
San Jose and California Unemployment Rates

(percent)
13%
San Jose Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011

(California = 100)
200

11%
180
160
140
9%
120
100
7%
80
60
5%
40
3%
20
0
Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
1%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
51
METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE
Quarterly Outlook for San Jose

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2
124.4
131.0
126.0
127.2
128.6
130.6
132.4
134.2
136.3
138.2
140.4
142.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
6.0
12.3
3.8
4.1
3.4
-0.4
5.1
5.6
6.0
5.9
6.1
6.2
Wages and Salaries
95.2
100.6
97.2
98.0
98.9
100.4
101.5
103.1
104.6
106.2
107.7
109.5
Nonwage Income
29.2
30.4
28.8
29.2
29.8
30.2
30.9
31.2
31.7
32.1
32.7
33.1
108.1
113.4
108.7
109.8
110.5
112.0
113.2
114.3
115.6
116.8
118.2
119.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.3
10.4
2.4
3.0
2.3
-1.2
4.1
4.1
4.6
4.3
4.4
4.6
65.4
68.7
65.8
66.2
66.7
67.5
68.2
68.9
69.7
70.5
71.4
72.3
56.8
59.4
56.8
57.1
57.3
57.9
58.3
58.7
59.1
59.6
60.1
60.6
104.3
109.2
104.9
105.2
105.3
106.3
107.0
108.1
109.1
110.1
111.1
112.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.9
9.3
1.5
1.9
1.0
-2.6
2.0
2.7
3.5
3.5
3.8
3.8
909.6
918.5
922.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.6
3.8
3.3
Manufacturing
157.9
158.0
157.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.1
0.8
0.1
Nonmanufacturing
751.8
760.5
765.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.4
4.5
4.0
35.2
36.6
37.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
9.3
12.6
11.9
132.3
132.9
134.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.4
2.6
3.1
Wholesale Trade
35.3
35.6
35.5
Retail Trade
83.9
83.9
85.2
13.1
13.3
13.3
Information
49.8
51.4
51.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
4.6
4.6
34.0
33.8
33.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.5
2.0
1.0
182.5
185.8
188.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
7.4
8.8
7.7
119.4
120.5
119.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.8
3.4
1.8
82.6
83.5
84.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.8
5.3
5.1
Other Services
25.0
24.2
23.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
-2.1
-2.0
Federal Government
9.8
9.8
9.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
-3.0
-1.4
-1.7
81.3
82.1
81.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.0
-0.2
-0.6
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
52
1901.0
1.4
939.6
2.0
8.5
5642
1822
3820
1907.7
1.4
942.7
1.6
8.1
5027
1533
3493
1914.4
1.4
947.7
1.7
7.7
6507
1864
4643
928.6
3.0
157.1
-0.2
771.5
3.6
38.5
10.4
134.6
2.7
36.0
85.2
13.4
52.6
4.6
34.3
1.9
189.7
5.5
120.5
2.7
86.7
6.6
23.9
-3.4
9.5
-3.0
81.3
-0.5
935.3
2.8
157.0
-0.6
778.3
3.5
39.4
11.9
135.9
2.7
36.1
86.4
13.4
53.6
7.7
34.1
0.3
192.3
5.4
121.3
1.6
87.1
5.5
24.5
-1.8
9.5
-3.3
80.6
-0.9
941.1
2.5
157.1
-0.6
784.0
3.1
39.7
8.4
136.9
3.0
36.3
87.0
13.5
54.8
6.5
34.0
0.7
192.7
3.7
122.3
1.5
88.3
5.8
24.6
1.8
9.4
-3.8
81.3
-0.9
945.4
2.5
157.8
0.2
787.6
2.9
39.8
5.7
137.2
2.4
36.5
87.2
13.6
55.1
6.1
34.0
0.8
194.5
3.1
122.7
2.7
88.7
4.7
24.7
3.0
9.6
-0.8
81.3
-0.2
950.5
2.4
158.8
1.1
791.7
2.6
40.4
5.0
137.8
2.4
36.7
87.4
13.7
55.2
5.0
33.9
-1.3
196.7
3.7
123.0
2.1
89.0
2.7
24.7
3.2
9.6
1.4
81.3
0.1
956.0
2.2
160.3
2.1
795.7
2.2
41.3
5.0
138.4
1.8
37.0
87.7
13.8
55.1
2.7
34.0
-0.4
198.5
3.2
123.3
1.7
89.4
2.7
24.7
0.8
9.6
1.5
81.3
0.9
961.2
2.1
160.2
2.0
801.1
2.2
42.3
6.7
139.0
1.5
37.2
87.9
13.9
55.6
1.6
34.1
0.3
200.7
4.2
123.6
1.1
89.9
1.8
24.7
0.4
9.6
1.5
81.5
0.2
966.9
2.3
160.5
1.7
806.4
2.4
43.4
9.0
139.4
1.6
37.5
88.0
14.0
55.5
0.8
34.1
0.3
203.7
4.7
124.1
1.2
90.3
1.8
24.7
0.1
9.6
0.2
81.6
0.3
972.9
2.4
160.6
1.2
812.3
2.6
44.6
10.4
140.0
1.6
37.7
88.1
14.1
56.1
1.6
34.1
0.6
206.5
5.0
124.6
1.3
90.5
1.7
24.7
-0.1
9.6
-0.6
81.7
0.4
1921.2
1.4
953.4
1.8
6.8
6346
2021
4325
1928.2
1.4
955.4
1.7
6.6
7450
2090
5360
1934.9
1.4
954.6
1.3
6.5
6296
2136
4161
1941.4
1.4
963.4
1.7
6.5
6442
2281
4161
1947.9
1.4
967.1
1.4
6.5
6580
2426
4154
1954.2
1.3
971.7
1.7
6.4
6610
2465
4145
1960.5
1.3
976.5
2.3
6.3
6625
2495
4130
1966.6
1.3
980.0
1.7
6.2
6843
2542
4301
1972.6
1.3
983.2
1.7
6.0
6933
2687
4246
Quarterly Outlook for San Jose

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
144.8
146.9
149.5
151.9
154.3
156.9
159.7
162.3
164.9
167.5
170.1
172.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
6.3
6.3
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.5
6.3
Wages and Salaries
111.3
112.9
114.7
116.4
118.2
120.1
122.0
123.7
125.5
127.4
129.2
130.9
Nonwage Income
33.5
34.0
34.9
35.5
36.1
36.8
37.7
38.5
39.3
40.1
41.0
41.6
120.9
122.1
123.7
125.1
126.6
128.1
129.9
131.3
132.8
134.4
135.8
137.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.6
4.5
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.9
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.6
4.4
73.2
74.0
75.1
76.1
77.1
78.2
79.4
80.4
81.5
82.6
83.6
84.6
61.1
61.6
62.2
62.7
63.2
63.8
64.5
65.1
65.7
66.2
66.7
67.2
113.3
114.3
115.4
116.4
117.5
118.7
119.9
121.0
122.2
123.4
124.7
125.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
979.0
984.7
990.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4
2.4
2.4
Manufacturing
161.0
161.3
161.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.4
0.7
0.7
Nonmanufacturing
818.1
823.4
828.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8
2.8
2.8
45.9
47.4
48.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
11.2
11.9
12.1
140.5
141.1
141.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.5
1.5
1.6
Wholesale Trade
38.0
38.3
38.6
Retail Trade
88.2
88.4
88.5
14.3
14.4
14.5
Information
56.9
57.2
57.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.3
2.9
3.3
34.2
34.2
34.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.5
0.4
0.4
208.8
210.7
212.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.2
5.0
4.4
125.1
125.7
126.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
1.7
2.0
90.7
91.0
91.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
1.2
1.0
Other Services
24.6
24.6
24.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.4
-0.4
-0.3
Federal Government
9.5
9.5
9.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.1
-1.2
-1.9
81.8
82.0
82.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7
0.6
0.8
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
1978.5
1.2
986.6
1.5
5.8
7181
2883
4298
1984.3
1.2
989.9
1.4
5.7
7344
3018
4326
1989.9
1.2
992.5
1.3
5.6
7466.4
3168.9
4297.5
996.3
2.4
161.7
0.6
834.6
2.8
49.9
11.9
142.2
1.6
38.9
88.7
14.7
57.8
3.2
34.3
0.5
215.1
4.2
127.5
2.3
91.5
1.0
24.6
-0.2
9.4
-2.0
82.4
0.9
1002.6
2.4
161.8
0.5
840.8
2.8
51.1
11.3
142.9
1.7
39.2
88.9
14.8
58.4
2.7
34.3
0.3
217.6
4.2
128.1
2.4
91.8
1.2
24.6
0.0
9.3
-2.1
82.6
0.9
1008.6
2.4
162.0
0.4
846.6
2.8
52.2
10.1
143.4
1.7
39.4
89.0
14.9
59.1
3.2
34.2
-0.1
220.0
4.5
128.8
2.5
92.2
1.3
24.6
0.1
9.3
-2.2
82.8
1.0
1014.0
2.4
162.2
0.4
851.8
2.8
53.2
9.3
143.9
1.6
39.7
89.2
15.1
59.7
4.0
34.1
-0.3
221.9
4.3
129.4
2.3
92.6
1.5
24.7
0.4
9.2
-1.8
83.0
1.0
1019.1
2.3
162.5
0.5
856.6
2.6
54.0
8.2
144.4
1.5
39.9
89.3
15.2
60.1
4.0
34.1
-0.6
223.7
4.0
130.3
2.2
92.9
1.6
24.8
0.6
9.2
-1.7
83.2
1.0
1024.0
2.1
162.6
0.5
861.4
2.4
54.6
6.8
144.8
1.3
40.1
89.4
15.3
60.6
3.7
34.0
-0.7
225.7
3.7
131.0
2.3
93.2
1.6
24.8
0.7
9.2
-1.7
83.4
1.0
1028.9
2.0
162.7
0.5
866.2
2.3
55.1
5.5
145.2
1.3
40.4
89.5
15.4
60.9
3.2
34.0
-0.7
227.9
3.6
131.9
2.3
93.6
1.5
24.8
0.8
9.1
-1.6
83.7
1.0
1032.6
1.8
162.8
0.4
869.8
2.1
55.5
4.2
145.6
1.2
40.6
89.5
15.5
61.4
2.9
34.0
-0.6
229.3
3.3
132.3
2.2
94.0
1.5
24.9
0.7
9.1
-1.8
84.0
1.2
1036.4
1.7
163.2
0.4
873.3
1.9
55.7
3.2
146.0
1.1
40.8
89.6
15.6
61.7
2.5
33.9
-0.5
230.5
3.0
133.2
2.2
94.1
1.3
24.9
0.6
9.0
-1.7
84.3
1.2
1995.7
1.2
995.2
1.2
5.4
7607.8
3321.2
4286.6
2001.5
1.2
997.8
1.1
5.2
7649.7
3423.6
4226.1
2006.9
1.1
999.7
1.0
5.0
7662.3
3460.2
4202.1
2012.4
1.1
1000.7
0.8
4.9
7689.1
3438.6
4250.5
2017.8
1.1
1002.0
0.7
4.7
7714.4
3483.8
4230.7
2023.2
1.1
1003.0
0.5
4.5
7713.2
3514.2
4199.1
2028.7
1.1
1004.0
0.4
4.4
7776.7
3558.3
4218.3
2034.5
1.1
1005.5
0.5
4.3
7829.8
3508.7
4321.1
2040.3
1.1
1006.9
0.5
4.3
7876.8
3495.3
4381.5
53
Annual Outlook for San Jose

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
98.1
9.0
72.3
25.8
95.6
6.1
56.1
54.7
80.9
6.5
105.2
7.2
79.1
26.1
100.0
4.6
59.4
56.5
86.5
7.0
105.4
0.1
78.0
27.3
97.2
-2.8
58.6
54.0
85.0
-1.8
98.3
-6.7
72.9
25.4
90.7
-6.6
53.9
49.8
84.8
-0.2
105.2
7.0
80.4
24.7
95.4
5.2
57.0
51.7
93.7
10.5
115.8
10.2
87.9
27.9
102.6
7.6
61.9
54.8
100.0
6.8
124.7
7.7
95.5
29.3
108.5
5.8
65.7
57.2
105.0
5.1
128.1
2.7
98.6
29.5
110.2
1.6
66.5
57.3
105.4
0.4
135.3
5.6
103.8
31.5
115.0
4.3
69.3
58.9
108.5
3.0
143.7
6.2
110.4
33.3
120.2
4.6
72.7
60.8
112.7
3.8
153.1
6.6
117.3
35.8
125.9
4.7
76.6
63.0
117.0
3.8
163.6
6.8
124.7
38.9
132.1
4.9
81.0
65.4
121.6
4.0
173.8
6.2
131.8
42.0
137.8
4.3
85.1
67.4
126.5
4.0

891.1 911.0 915.1 856.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4
2.2
0.4
-6.4
Manufacturing
163.7 166.6 168.0 155.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.7
1.8
0.8
-7.2
Nonmanufacturing
727.4 744.4 747.1 700.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.2
2.3
0.4
-6.2
47.1
47.5
44.5
34.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.3
1.0
-6.4 -22.1
137.0 139.7 137.7 126.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.2
2.0
-1.4
-8.1
Wholesale Trade
38.3
39.8
39.8
35.6
Retail Trade
85.8
86.4
84.4
78.8
12.9
13.5
13.5
12.1
Information
37.4
39.6
42.2
41.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
6.3
5.7
6.7
-1.4
36.9
36.9
34.3
31.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
-0.1
-7.1
-8.0
171.9 178.2 178.9 161.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.7
3.7
0.4
-9.8
100.6 103.5 108.3 109.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.7
2.8
4.6
1.0
75.1
76.8
78.1
74.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.3
2.2
1.7
-4.1
Other Services
24.8
25.1
25.4
24.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7
1.1
1.3
-3.5
Federal Government
11.1
11.0
11.0
10.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-2.3
-0.5
-0.6
-1.5
85.4
86.2
86.9
85.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.0
0.9
0.8
-1.4
855.1
-0.1
153.6
-1.4
701.6
0.1
32.4
-6.2
125.8
-0.5
34.9
78.8
12.0
43.9
5.5
31.0
-1.4
162.1
0.5
112.8
3.2
74.9
0.0
24.3
-0.8
10.7
-0.6
83.7
-2.3
876.3
2.5
157.4
2.5
718.9
2.5
31.8
-1.8
127.7
1.6
33.9
81.8
12.1
48.4
10.2
32.4
4.4
168.6
4.0
115.5
2.4
77.4
3.3
24.6
1.2
10.1
-5.4
82.5
-1.4
905.8
3.4
157.6
0.2
748.2
4.1
35.1
10.3
131.6
3.0
34.9
83.8
12.9
50.3
3.9
33.7
4.1
180.8
7.2
118.6
2.7
82.0
5.9
24.6
0.1
9.8
-3.1
81.7
-0.9
931.9
2.9
157.1
-0.3
774.8
3.6
38.8
10.7
135.4
2.9
36.0
85.9
13.4
53.2
5.9
34.1
1.0
190.8
5.6
120.9
1.9
86.7
5.7
24.3
-1.3
9.5
-2.9
81.2
-0.7
953.3
2.3
159.3
1.4
794.0
2.5
41.0
5.6
138.1
2.0
36.8
87.5
13.7
55.2
3.8
34.0
-0.1
197.6
3.6
123.2
1.9
89.3
3.0
24.7
1.9
9.6
0.9
81.4
0.2
975.9
2.4
160.9
1.0
815.0
2.6
45.3
10.6
140.2
1.5
37.9
88.2
14.2
56.4
2.1
34.2
0.4
207.4
5.0
124.9
1.4
90.6
1.5
24.7
-0.2
9.5
-0.7
81.8
0.5
999.4 1021.5 1038.3

2.4
2.2
1.7
161.8 162.5 163.3
0.6
0.4
0.5
837.7 859.0 875.0
2.8
2.5
1.9
50.5
54.2
55.8
11.4
7.4
3.0
142.5 144.6 146.1
1.6
1.4
1.0
39.0
40.0
40.9
88.8
89.3
89.6
14.7
15.2
15.6
58.2
60.3
61.9
3.1
3.7
2.6
34.2
34.1
33.9
0.3
-0.6
-0.5
216.4 224.8 231.3
4.3
3.9
2.9
127.7 130.6 133.5
2.3
2.3
2.2
91.7
93.1
94.3
1.1
1.5
1.3
24.6
24.8
24.9
-0.1
0.6
0.5
9.3
9.2
9.0
-2.1
-1.7
-1.7
82.5
83.3
84.4
0.9
1.0
1.2

Pct Chg Year Ago
Wages and Salaries
Nonwage Income
Pct Chg Year Ago
Pct Chg Year Ago

Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
54
1748.2 1770.2 1798.0 1822.4 1845.7 1871.3 1897.7 1924.7 1951.0 1975.5 1998.5 2020.5 2043.1
0.9
1.3
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
848.1 868.8 895.2 900.8 907.6 920.0 937.7 952.8 969.7 984.9 996.3 1002.4 1007.6
0.8
2.4
3.0
0.6
0.8
1.4
1.9
1.6
1.8
1.6
1.2
0.6
0.5
4.6
4.7
6.1
10.9
11.2
10.0
8.6
6.9
6.4
5.9
5.3
4.6
4.3
5162
3977
2687
1357
2317
3153
4948
6650
6564
7075
7597
7723 7936.3
2211
1970
1105
708
887
1078
1520
2028
2417
2782
3343
3499 3482.4
2951
2008
1582
649
1431
2076
3428
4622
4147
4293
4253
4225 4454.0
Santa Cruz MSA

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
After a 4.4% growth in nonfarm employment during
2013, employment growth in the Santa Cruz MSA is
expected to increase at a substantially slower rate in
upcoming years. In 2014, the employment rate will increase
0.9% and 1.6% in 2015. Most sectors will see an increase
in employment for 2014, with Construction and Mining
leading the growth at 3.6%. Sectors such as Financial
Activities, Leisure & Hospitality, and Other Services will
see a decrease in employment of 1.1%, 0.2%, and 2.2%
respectively.
Real personal income for the Santa Cruz MSA is
expected to increase 2.2% in 2014. In the next four years,
real personal income will grow on average by 2% for the

remainder of the forecast.
Population in Santa Cruz is expected to grow at a modest
0.4% growth rate in 2014. After 2015, the population will
be fairly similar for the remainder of the forecast. The labor
force is expected to increase by 0.5% in 2014 and 1.6%
in 2015. This trend of increasing at a decreasing rate will
continue for the projected horizon. With employment rate
growth rate increasing, unemployment rate will decrease
to 8.6% in 2014 and will continue to decrease resulting in
6.3% unemployment in 2018.
Santa Cruz Real Personal Income

(Percent change from one year ago)
25%
Santa Cruz Payroll Employment

(Thousands)
105
20%
100
15%
95
10%
90
5%
85
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
80
-5%
75
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-10%
Santa Cruz and California Unemployment Rates

(Percent)
14%
Santa Cruz Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011

(California = 100)
200

12%
10%
180
160
140
120
8%
6%
100
80
60
4%
40
20
2%
0
Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
55
METRO SUMMARY - SANTA CRUZ
Quarterly Outlook for Santa Cruz

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2
13.8
14.2
13.9
14.0
14.1
14.2
14.4
14.5
14.6
14.8
14.9
15.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.3
7.0
2.4
2.9
2.5
0.1
3.5
3.2
3.5
3.9
3.6
3.7
Wages and Salaries
4.4
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
Nonwage Income
9.3
9.5
9.3
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.9
10.0
12.0
12.3
12.0
12.1
12.1
12.2
12.3
12.3
12.4
12.5
12.5
12.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7
5.3
1.0
1.8
1.4
-0.8
2.5
1.8
2.2
2.3
2.0
2.2
51.6
53.1
51.9
52.3
52.6
52.9
53.5
53.8
54.3
54.8
55.3
55.7
44.8
45.9
44.8
45.2
45.2
45.4
45.7
45.8
46.1
46.3
46.5
46.7
49.9
51.5
49.7
50.3
51.0
51.4
51.6
51.9
52.2
52.5
52.9
53.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.5
5.7
-1.4
1.6
2.2
-0.3
3.8
3.1
2.3
2.2
2.5
2.5
88.4
90.4
91.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
5.3
5.8
Manufacturing
5.7
5.5
5.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.7
2.0
7.2
Nonmanufacturing
82.8
84.9
85.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.0
5.5
5.7
2.9
3.0
3.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.2
3.2
8.0
16.5
16.8
16.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.9
5.6
5.8
Wholesale Trade
3.5
3.5
3.6
Retail Trade
11.6
11.8
11.8
1.5
1.5
1.5
Information
0.8
0.8
0.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-10.9
-11.5
-4.5
3.2
3.3
3.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2
8.4
9.5
9.9
10.0
10.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.1
7.5
8.5
13.9
14.0
14.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.4
1.5
0.4
11.5
12.1
12.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.8
8.9
10.4
Other Services
3.7
3.8
3.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.2
2.1
3.2
Federal Government
0.5
0.5
0.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
19.8
20.6
20.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.2
6.8
5.5
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
56
267.1
0.6
151.4
1.3
11.0
164
163
1
267.3
0.6
154.0
3.3
10.5
383
111
272
267.6
0.5
156.2
4.8
10.0
249
90
158
92.5
5.6
5.9
4.2
86.7
5.7
3.0
4.8
17.1
5.9
3.6
12.1
1.4
0.8
0.1
3.4
8.5
10.2
6.3
14.3
4.2
12.1
4.6
3.9
4.7
0.5
0.1
21.3
7.5
92.1
4.2
5.9
4.1
86.2
4.2
3.0
2.6
17.3
4.7
3.6
12.2
1.5
0.8
0.9
3.4
5.7
10.2
3.1
14.2
2.3
12.0
4.1
3.8
1.7
0.5
-0.2
21.0
6.3
92.1
1.9
5.9
7.1
86.2
1.5
3.1
0.4
17.2
2.7
3.6
12.2
1.5
0.8
2.4
3.4
2.2
10.1
0.5
14.2
1.6
11.9
-1.7
3.7
-1.8
0.5
2.4
21.3
3.5
92.4
0.7
6.0
1.7
86.4
0.7
3.1
-2.2
17.3
1.9
3.6
12.2
1.5
0.8
0.5
3.3
0.2
10.2
-0.6
14.3
2.4
11.9
-3.3
3.7
-2.2
0.5
2.2
21.3
2.5
92.7
0.2
6.0
2.4
86.7
0.1
3.1
3.1
17.3
0.9
3.6
12.2
1.5
0.8
0.1
3.3
-2.3
10.3
0.5
14.4
0.2
12.0
-0.4
3.7
-4.6
0.5
0.5
21.3
0.1
93.1
1.1
6.1
2.5
87.1
1.0
3.2
6.2
17.3
0.1
3.6
12.2
1.5
0.8
0.2
3.3
-1.8
10.3
1.6
14.4
1.7
12.1
0.6
3.7
-2.1
0.5
-0.7
21.4
1.7
93.5
1.6
6.0
1.9
87.5
1.5
3.3
7.2
17.4
0.7
3.7
12.2
1.5
0.8
0.4
3.3
-0.3
10.5
3.6
14.5
2.0
12.1
2.1
3.7
0.0
0.5
-1.2
21.4
0.5
93.9
1.6
6.1
0.8
87.8
1.7
3.3
8.7
17.4
0.6
3.7
12.2
1.5
0.8
-0.9
3.3
0.0
10.6
4.1
14.6
2.3
12.2
2.1
3.7
-0.3
0.5
-0.5
21.4
0.4
94.3
1.7
6.0
0.3
88.2
1.8
3.4
9.7
17.4
0.5
3.7
12.1
1.5
0.8
0.1
3.3
0.3
10.7
4.4
14.7
2.4
12.2
1.9
3.7
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
21.4
0.5
267.9
0.4
154.8
3.4
9.0
189
110
78
268.2
0.4
152.5
0.7
8.9
124
110
13
268.5
0.4
152.9
-0.7
8.8
125
123
2
268.7
0.4
153.8
-1.5
8.7
161
138
22
269.0
0.4
154.5
-0.2
8.6
209
155
54
269.2
0.4
155.3
1.8
8.6
263
187
76
269.4
0.3
156.0
2.0
8.5
312
215
97
269.5
0.3
156.6
1.8
8.3
366
243
124
269.6
0.2
157.1
1.7
8.1
417
286
131
Quarterly Outlook for Santa Cruz

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
15.1
15.2
15.4
15.6
15.7
15.8
16.0
16.2
16.3
16.4
16.6
16.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
Wages and Salaries
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
Nonwage Income
10.0
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.7
10.8
10.9
11.1
11.2
12.6
12.7
12.8
12.8
12.9
12.9
13.0
13.1
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
56.1
56.5
57.2
57.7
58.2
58.7
59.3
59.9
60.5
61.0
61.6
62.3
46.8
47.0
47.3
47.5
47.7
47.9
48.2
48.5
48.7
48.9
49.2
49.5
53.5
53.8
54.2
54.5
54.8
55.1
55.5
55.9
56.3
56.6
57.0
57.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
94.6
95.0
95.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6
1.5
1.5
Manufacturing
6.0
6.0
6.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.3
0.0
-0.3
Nonmanufacturing
88.6
88.9
89.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7
1.6
1.6
3.5
3.6
3.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
10.4
11.1
11.5
17.4
17.4
17.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.4
0.3
0.5
Wholesale Trade
3.7
3.7
3.8
Retail Trade
12.1
12.1
12.1
1.6
1.6
1.6
Information
0.8
0.8
0.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
2.2
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.0
0.0
-0.3
10.8
10.9
10.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.4
4.1
3.5
14.8
14.9
15.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4
2.3
2.4
12.3
12.3
12.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6
1.2
0.9
Other Services
3.7
3.7
3.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.8
-0.8
-0.5
Federal Government
0.5
0.5
0.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.1
-0.5
-0.9
21.5
21.5
21.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.6
0.6
0.6
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
269.7
0.2
157.6
1.5
7.9
481
339
142
269.7
0.1
158.0
1.3
7.7
523
364
159
269.8
0.1
158.4
1.1
7.6
560
396
165
95.6
1.4
6.0
-0.3
89.6
1.5
3.8
11.8
17.5
0.4
3.8
12.1
1.6
0.8
3.4
3.3
-0.6
11.0
3.1
15.0
2.2
12.3
0.8
3.7
-0.8
0.5
-1.3
21.6
0.6
95.9
1.4
6.0
-0.5
89.9
1.5
3.9
11.6
17.5
0.4
3.8
12.1
1.6
0.8
2.9
3.3
-0.9
11.1
3.1
15.1
2.1
12.3
0.7
3.7
-0.5
0.5
-1.7
21.6
0.7
96.2
1.3
6.0
-0.7
90.2
1.4
4.0
11.0
17.5
0.4
3.8
12.1
1.6
0.9
3.4
3.3
-1.5
11.2
3.1
15.1
1.8
12.4
0.5
3.7
-0.5
0.5
-2.2
21.7
0.7
96.4
1.2
6.0
-0.8
90.5
1.3
4.1
10.2
17.5
0.3
3.8
12.1
1.6
0.9
4.3
3.3
-1.5
11.3
3.2
15.2
1.4
12.4
0.7
3.7
-0.3
0.5
-2.0
21.7
0.6
96.7
1.1
6.0
-0.5
90.7
1.2
4.2
9.0
17.5
0.4
3.8
12.1
1.6
0.9
4.0
3.3
-1.8
11.3
2.8
15.3
1.4
12.4
0.5
3.7
0.0
0.5
-2.0
21.7
0.7
96.9
1.0
6.0
-0.5
90.9
1.1
4.2
7.5
17.5
0.3
3.8
12.1
1.6
0.9
3.6
3.2
-2.1
11.4
2.5
15.3
1.5
12.4
0.5
3.7
0.0
0.5
-2.0
21.8
0.7
97.0
0.9
6.0
-0.7
91.1
1.0
4.3
6.1
17.5
0.3
3.9
12.1
1.6
0.9
3.1
3.2
-2.1
11.4
2.0
15.4
1.7
12.4
0.5
3.7
0.3
0.5
-1.9
21.8
0.7
97.2
0.8
5.9
-0.7
91.3
0.9
4.3
4.8
17.5
0.2
3.9
12.0
1.6
0.9
2.7
3.2
-2.1
11.5
1.7
15.4
1.4
12.4
0.4
3.7
0.0
0.5
-2.1
21.9
0.9
97.3
0.7
6.0
-0.5
91.4
0.8
4.3
3.8
17.5
0.0
3.9
12.0
1.6
0.9
2.5
3.2
-2.1
11.5
1.4
15.5
1.4
12.4
0.2
3.7
-0.3
0.5
-2.0
21.9
1.0
269.8
0.1
158.7
1.0
7.4
574
410
164
269.8
0.0
159.0
0.9
7.2
586
423
163
269.8
0.0
159.2
0.8
7.1
591
427
165
269.8
0.0
159.4
0.7
6.9
598
428
170
269.8
0.0
159.6
0.6
6.8
593
426
167
269.8
0.0
159.8
0.6
6.7
590
426
164
269.7
0.0
160.1
0.5
6.6
594
430
165
269.8
0.0
160.3
0.6
6.5
600
438
162
269.7
0.0
160.5
0.5
6.4
598
440
157
57
Annual Outlook for Santa Cruz

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
12.0
9.0
4.2
7.8
11.7
6.1
47.7
46.5
44.4
6.6
12.8
6.7
4.4
8.5
12.2
4.1
50.6
48.0
45.5
2.7
12.7
-0.8
4.3
8.4
11.7
-3.7
49.6
45.7
46.3
1.7
12.0
-5.6
4.1
7.9
11.1
-5.5
46.2
42.6
46.9
1.3
12.4
2.9
4.1
8.2
11.2
1.2
46.9
42.6
47.6
1.4
13.2
6.9
4.3
8.9
11.7
4.4
49.8
44.2
49.1
3.1
13.8
4.4
4.5
9.3
12.0
2.5
51.7
45.0
50.3
2.6
14.1
2.0
4.7
9.4
12.1
0.8
52.5
45.2
50.6
0.5
14.6
3.5
4.9
9.7
12.4
2.2
54.1
46.0
52.0
2.9
15.1
3.5
5.1
10.0
12.6
1.9
55.9
46.8
53.3
2.5
15.6
3.7
5.3
10.4
12.8
1.9
57.9
47.6
54.7
2.5
16.2
3.9
5.4
10.8
13.1
2.0
60.2
48.6
56.1
2.6
16.9
3.9
5.6
11.2
13.4
2.0
62.5
49.6
57.7
2.9

95.1
95.8
93.0
87.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7
0.7
-2.9
-5.9
Manufacturing
6.5
6.3
5.9
5.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
-5.6
-2.6
-7.2
-9.6
Nonmanufacturing
88.6
89.4
87.1
82.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
1.0
-2.6
-5.6
5.9
5.4
4.6
3.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
-8.6 -14.1 -29.4
18.7
19.1
17.9
16.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
1.7
-6.0
-6.8
Wholesale Trade
4.0
4.3
4.1
3.8
Retail Trade
13.3
13.1
12.3
11.5
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.4
Information
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
-12.7 -14.1
-9.8
-9.1
3.8
3.7
3.5
3.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1
-2.4
-4.8
-2.8
10.0
10.0
10.0
9.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
8.0
-0.1
-0.2
-6.0
12.1
12.4
12.5
13.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.0
2.3
0.8
4.2
11.1
11.5
11.3
11.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.6
3.9
-1.9
-2.1
Other Services
3.8
3.9
4.0
3.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2
3.0
0.6
-6.2
Federal Government
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.0
3.3
16.4
-9.7
21.3
21.8
21.7
20.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4
2.5
-0.5
-6.9
86.4
-1.2
5.5
2.7
80.9
-1.5
3.0
-8.5
16.4
-1.8
3.5
11.4
1.5
0.9
-7.7
3.3
-4.2
9.1
-2.8
13.4
3.4
10.9
-1.7
3.7
-1.4
0.5
0.0
19.8
-1.6
86.6
0.3
5.4
-1.1
81.2
0.4
2.9
-2.0
16.1
-1.6
3.4
11.3
1.5
0.9
0.0
3.1
-5.1
9.5
4.5
13.8
2.8
11.0
1.6
3.6
-1.3
0.5
-6.8
19.8
-0.1
88.3
1.9
5.6
3.6
82.7
1.8
2.9
1.7
16.4
1.7
3.4
11.5
1.5
0.8
-10.2
3.2
2.6
9.7
2.5
13.9
0.5
11.6
4.8
3.7
3.4
0.5
-0.1
20.0
1.1
92.1
4.4
5.9
5.6
86.2
4.3
3.1
4.0
17.2
4.8
3.6
12.1
1.5
0.8
-0.3
3.4
6.4
10.2
4.6
14.2
2.1
12.1
4.4
3.8
1.9
0.5
0.5
21.1
5.7
93.0
0.9
6.0
2.1
86.9
0.8
3.2
3.6
17.3
0.9
3.6
12.2
1.5
0.8
0.3
3.3
-1.1
10.3
1.3
14.4
1.6
12.0
-0.2
3.7
-2.2
0.5
0.2
21.3
1.2
94.4
1.6
6.0
0.2
88.4
1.7
3.5
10.0
17.4
0.5
3.7
12.1
1.6
0.8
0.9
3.3
0.1
10.7
4.3
14.7
2.3
12.2
1.7
3.7
-0.6
0.5
-0.4
21.5
0.5
95.7
1.4
6.0
-0.5
89.7
1.5
3.9
11.5
17.5
0.4
3.8
12.1
1.6
0.8
3.2
3.3
-0.8
11.1
3.2
15.1
2.1
12.3
0.7
3.7
-0.6
0.5
-1.5
21.6
0.6
96.8
1.1
6.0
-0.6
90.8
1.2
4.2
8.2
17.5
0.3
3.8
12.1
1.6
0.9
3.7
3.3
-1.9
11.4
2.6
15.3
1.5
12.4
0.5
3.7
0.0
0.5
-2.0
21.7
0.7
97.4
0.6
5.9
-0.4
91.4
0.7
4.3
3.4
17.5
0.0
3.9
12.0
1.6
0.9
2.5
3.2
-2.1
11.5
1.3
15.5
1.2
12.4
0.1
3.7
-0.4
0.5
-2.1
22.0
1.0
263.5
1.2
150.1
1.6
12.6
159
125
34
265.2
0.6
149.6
-0.3
12.3
131
111
20
266.9
0.6
151.1
1.0
11.2
271
169
101
268.1
0.4
154.1
2.0
9.2
172
108
63
269.1
0.4
154.9
0.5
8.6
236
174
62
269.6
0.2
157.3
1.6
8.0
447
308
139
269.8
0.0
158.8
0.9
7.3
578.1
413.9
164.2
269.8
0.0
159.7
0.6
6.7
594
427
166.2
269.7
0.0
160.5
0.5
6.3
604.8
446.2
158.6

Pct Chg Year Ago
Wages and Salaries
Nonwage Income
Pct Chg Year Ago
Pct Chg Year Ago

Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
58
251.9
0.2
143.5
0.1
5.7
672
566
107
253.8
0.7
145.0
1.0
5.9
727
354
374
257.0
1.2
146.3
0.9
7.4
366
245
121
260.5
1.4
147.7
1.0
11.3
158
141
17
Stockton MSA
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
Non-farm employment in the Stockton MSA is expected
to increase 3.7% for the year 2014 followed with a lower
increase of 2.2% for 2015. The first quarter of 2015 is
expected to have a 2.3% increase in employment followed
by 2.1% growth in the second quarter. The Construction
& Mining and State & Local Government sectors will
lead in job growth with 7.1% and 7.3% increases in 2014,
respectively. The sectors that will suffer job losses are the
Federal Government and Information sectors with 2.8%
and 0.1% decreases in employment.
With an overall increase in employment, real personal
income will increase by a rate of 3.5% for 2015 from 4.1%
in 2014. Real personal income will continue to grow at a
constant rate of 3.5% or higher for the upcoming years.
Per capita income will also consistently increase in the

foreseeable future to a growth rate of 4.2% and 3.8% in
2014 and 2015, respectively.
Population in Stockton will increase 1.2% in 2014. It
will continue to increase at the rate of 1.3% and 1.5%
through 2015 and 2016. The labor force will have its first
increase in growth since 2010 to an increase of 1.6% in
2014 and 1.1% in 2015. Starting in 2014, labor force will
consistently increase for the remainder of the forecast.
With the growth in employment, the unemployment rate is
expected to decrease from 12.0% in 2014 to 11.2% in 2015.
This decrease in unemployment will continue through the
projected forecast until it reaches 8.6% in 2018.
Stockton Real Personal Income

10%
Stockton Payroll Employment

(Thousands)
230
220
8%
210
6%
200
4%
190
2%
180
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
170
-2%
160
-4%
150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Stockton and California Unemployment Rates

(percent)
18%
200
16%
Stockton Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011

(California = 100)
14%
180
160
140
120
12%
10%
100
80
60
8%
40
20
6%
0
Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
59
METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON
Quarterly Outlook for Stockton

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2
23.0
23.7
23.2
23.4
23.7
24.0
24.4
24.7
25.0
25.3
25.7
26.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.9
6.9
2.0
2.9
3.1
1.3
5.4
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.1
Wages and Salaries
9.2
9.5
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.8
9.9
10.0
10.1
10.3
10.4
Nonwage Income
13.8
14.2
13.9
14.0
14.3
14.4
14.7
14.8
15.0
15.2
15.4
15.6
20.0
20.5
20.0
20.2
20.4
20.6
20.9
21.1
21.2
21.4
21.6
21.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
5.1
0.6
1.8
2.0
0.4
4.4
4.1
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.5
32.7
33.6
32.7
33.0
33.3
33.7
34.1
34.4
34.7
35.0
35.4
35.7
28.4
29.1
28.2
28.5
28.6
28.9
29.2
29.3
29.5
29.6
29.8
30.0
48.1
49.4
48.3
48.2
47.9
48.2
48.4
48.8
49.1
49.4
49.7
50.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.8
5.9
0.6
0.6
-0.5
-2.5
0.2
1.2
2.5
2.5
2.8
2.8
189.8
191.7
191.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.0
1.5
0.7
Manufacturing
17.5
17.5
17.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
-4.2
-3.9
-2.7
Nonmanufacturing
172.3
174.2
173.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6
2.1
1.0
7.7
7.8
7.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
3.1
1.5
50.5
51.5
51.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.2
4.2
2.9
Wholesale Trade
10.5
10.8
10.8
Retail Trade
25.0
25.0
24.7
15.1
15.7
15.8
Information
1.8
1.8
1.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-8.8
-6.6
-4.6
7.4
7.4
7.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.7
-0.4
-1.1
16.5
16.5
16.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
7.9
7.7
7.0
28.7
29.1
28.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-2.4
-1.6
-2.1
16.9
17.1
17.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.1
2.6
2.8
Other Services
6.6
6.6
6.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.5
3.5
0.4
Federal Government
3.9
3.8
3.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
-2.7
-6.3
-9.4
32.5
32.6
32.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.2
0.7
-0.7
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
60
704.4
1.0
298.3
-0.6
15.0
1003
1003
0
706.1
1.0
297.2
-1.0
14.5
1362
1362
0
707.9
1.0
297.9
-0.5
14.0
1654
1507
146
193.5
2.2
17.7
-1.4
175.8
2.6
8.0
6.2
51.4
2.0
10.8
24.6
16.0
1.7
-6.0
7.5
0.0
17.2
4.4
29.2
2.1
18.0
6.9
6.6
2.3
3.6
-10.4
32.7
2.8
196.7
3.7
18.2
4.0
178.5
3.6
7.8
2.2
51.7
2.4
10.9
24.5
16.3
1.7
-3.4
7.6
2.7
17.4
5.6
30.0
4.4
18.8
11.7
6.6
1.0
3.5
-11.2
33.5
2.9
198.9
3.8
18.4
5.1
180.6
3.6
8.2
4.0
52.4
1.7
11.0
24.5
16.9
1.7
-2.8
7.6
1.8
17.6
6.7
29.7
2.3
19.1
11.7
6.6
0.2
3.3
-11.0
34.3
5.2
200.3
4.8
18.5
5.3
181.9
4.8
8.3
5.3
52.5
2.5
11.0
24.6
16.9
1.7
-1.9
7.6
2.5
17.8
5.5
29.9
3.6
19.2
10.2
6.7
2.3
3.4
-7.2
35.0
8.8
201.9
4.4
18.6
4.9
183.3
4.3
8.4
4.7
52.8
2.7
11.1
24.6
17.1
1.7
0.9
7.5
0.1
18.0
4.5
30.0
2.8
19.2
7.0
6.7
1.8
3.4
-4.2
35.6
9.1
202.9
3.2
18.8
3.2
184.2
3.1
8.6
10.2
53.0
2.4
11.1
24.7
17.1
1.7
0.2
7.6
-0.5
18.1
4.4
30.1
0.4
19.3
2.5
6.7
1.1
3.4
-1.4
35.7
6.7
203.9
2.5
18.8
2.1
185.2
2.6
8.8
8.3
53.2
1.6
11.2
24.7
17.3
1.7
0.5
7.6
0.0
18.3
4.0
30.2
1.4
19.4
1.6
6.7
0.7
3.4
1.5
35.8
4.5
205.0
2.3
18.8
1.9
186.2
2.4
9.1
9.7
53.4
1.8
11.3
24.7
17.4
1.7
-0.5
7.6
0.0
18.6
4.4
30.3
1.6
19.5
1.7
6.7
0.4
3.4
0.6
36.0
2.8
206.1
2.1
18.8
1.3
187.3
2.1
9.3
10.8
53.7
1.8
11.4
24.8
17.6
1.7
0.4
7.6
0.3
18.8
4.5
30.5
1.6
19.5
1.6
6.7
0.2
3.4
-0.3
36.1
1.2
709.7
1.0
297.6
-0.5
12.7
1476
1320
156
711.6
1.0
298.5
0.0
12.3
923
923
0
713.8
1.1
297.6
0.1
12.2
760
760
0
716.0
1.1
301.3
1.1
12.1
1030
936
94
718.4
1.2
302.2
1.5
12.0
1293
1157
136
720.7
1.3
303.3
1.6
11.9
1520
1340
180
722.9
1.3
304.4
2.3
11.8
1760
1531
229
725.2
1.3
305.0
1.2
11.5
2001
1707
294
727.6
1.3
305.7
1.2
11.3
2310
1972
338
Quarterly Outlook for Stockton

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
26.3
26.6
27.1
27.4
27.8
28.2
28.7
29.1
29.5
29.9
30.3
30.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.0
5.1
5.3
5.5
5.7
6.0
5.9
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.8
5.7
Wages and Salaries
10.5
10.6
10.8
10.9
11.0
11.2
11.3
11.5
11.6
11.7
11.9
12.0
Nonwage Income
15.8
16.0
16.3
16.5
16.8
17.0
17.3
17.6
17.9
18.1
18.4
18.7
22.0
22.1
22.4
22.6
22.8
23.0
23.3
23.5
23.7
24.0
24.2
24.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.8
3.8
36.0
36.3
36.8
37.1
37.5
37.9
38.4
38.8
39.2
39.6
40.0
40.4
30.1
30.2
30.4
30.6
30.8
31.0
31.2
31.4
31.6
31.7
31.9
32.1
50.4
50.8
51.2
51.5
51.8
52.2
52.6
53.0
53.4
53.8
54.2
54.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.2
207.2
208.5
209.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
2.2
2.2
Manufacturing
18.9
18.9
19.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.6
0.9
0.8
Nonmanufacturing
188.3
189.6
190.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
2.4
2.4
9.6
9.9
10.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
11.5
12.1
12.1
54.0
54.4
54.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.0
2.2
2.3
Wholesale Trade
11.5
11.6
11.8
Retail Trade
24.8
24.8
24.8
17.7
17.9
18.1
Information
1.7
1.8
1.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
2.0
3.1
7.6
7.6
7.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.3
0.1
0.1
19.0
19.2
19.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.6
4.5
3.9
30.6
30.8
31.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7
2.0
2.2
19.6
19.7
19.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.5
1.2
1.1
Other Services
6.7
6.7
6.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.1
0.0
0.1
Federal Government
3.4
3.4
3.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.9
-0.6
-1.8
36.2
36.3
36.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
1.4
1.4
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
729.9
1.3
306.6
1.1
11.1
2669
2275
394
732.8
1.4
307.4
1.0
10.9
2934
2501
433
735.7
1.4
308.2
1.0
10.6
3187
2742
445
210.8
2.3
19.0
0.7
191.8
2.4
10.4
11.9
55.0
2.3
11.9
24.8
18.2
1.8
3.3
7.6
0.3
19.5
3.6
31.2
2.5
19.7
1.0
6.7
0.1
3.3
-1.8
36.6
1.5
211.9
2.3
19.0
0.6
192.9
2.5
10.7
11.2
55.3
2.3
12.0
24.9
18.4
1.8
3.0
7.6
-0.1
19.7
3.6
31.4
2.7
19.8
1.1
6.7
0.1
3.3
-1.5
36.8
1.5
213.0
2.2
19.0
0.4
194.0
2.4
10.9
10.0
55.5
2.1
12.1
24.9
18.5
1.8
3.5
7.5
-0.5
19.8
3.4
31.6
2.8
19.9
1.3
6.7
0.3
3.3
-2.1
36.9
1.6
214.1
2.1
19.0
0.5
195.0
2.3
11.1
9.4
55.8
2.1
12.2
24.9
18.7
1.8
3.7
7.5
-0.5
19.9
3.3
31.8
2.5
20.0
1.4
6.7
0.5
3.3
-1.2
37.0
1.5
215.0
2.0
19.1
0.6
196.0
2.2
11.3
8.4
56.0
2.0
12.3
25.0
18.8
1.8
3.7
7.5
-0.9
20.0
3.0
32.0
2.5
20.0
1.5
6.7
0.6
3.3
-1.2
37.1
1.4
215.9
1.9
19.1
0.6
196.8
2.0
11.5
7.2
56.3
1.8
12.4
25.0
18.9
1.9
3.2
7.5
-0.9
20.2
2.5
32.2
2.5
20.1
1.6
6.7
0.9
3.3
-1.5
37.3
1.4
216.8
1.8
19.1
0.6
197.6
1.9
11.6
6.2
56.4
1.6
12.5
25.0
19.0
1.9
2.9
7.5
-1.1
20.3
2.3
32.4
2.6
20.2
1.5
6.8
0.8
3.3
-1.2
37.4
1.3
217.6
1.7
19.1
0.5
198.5
1.8
11.7
4.9
56.7
1.6
12.6
25.0
19.2
1.9
2.7
7.5
-1.1
20.4
2.3
32.6
2.5
20.3
1.5
6.8
0.7
3.3
-1.5
37.6
1.5
218.5
1.6
19.2
0.6
199.3
1.7
11.8
4.0
56.9
1.5
12.6
25.0
19.3
1.9
2.3
7.4
-0.9
20.5
2.2
32.8
2.5
20.3
1.3
6.8
0.7
3.2
-1.5
37.7
1.5
738.6
1.5
308.9
1.0
10.3
3361
2917
443
741.4
1.6
309.5
1.0
9.9
3441
2998
442
744.2
1.6
310.1
0.9
9.6
3470
3025
444
747.0
1.5
310.8
0.9
9.4
3564
3101
462
749.7
1.5
311.5
0.8
9.2
3647
3189
458
752.4
1.5
312.2
0.9
9.0
3698
3240
457
755.1
1.5
312.8
0.9
8.8
3747
3286
461
757.8
1.5
313.4
0.8
8.7
3794
3334
460
760.6
1.5
314.0
0.8
8.6
3825
3372
453
61
Annual Outlook for Stockton

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
19.5
6.1
8.7
10.8
19.0
3.3
29.4
28.7
41.4
3.9
20.7
6.0
9.2
11.5
19.7
3.4
31.0
29.4
43.1
4.1
20.8
0.5
9.3
11.5
19.2
-2.5
30.9
28.5
45.0
4.4
20.6
-0.9
8.9
11.7
19.0
-0.8
30.4
28.0
45.7
1.5
21.0
2.0
8.8
12.3
19.1
0.3
30.5
27.7
46.4
1.6
22.1
5.3
8.9
13.2
19.6
2.9
31.8
28.2
47.2
1.7
23.1
4.1
9.3
13.8
20.1
2.2
32.8
28.5
48.4
2.5
23.6
2.3
9.4
14.1
20.3
1.2
33.2
28.6
48.1
-0.5
24.9
5.5
10.0
14.9
21.1
4.1
34.6
29.4
48.9
1.6
26.2
5.1
10.4
15.7
21.9
3.5
35.9
30.0
50.3
2.8
27.6
5.6
11.0
16.6
22.7
3.8
37.3
30.7
51.7
2.8
29.3
5.9
11.5
17.7
23.6
4.1
39.0
31.5
53.2
2.9
30.9
5.7
12.1
18.9
24.5
3.7
40.6
32.2
54.9
3.2

209.0 211.5 205.7 193.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.5
1.2
-2.7
-5.8
Manufacturing
21.7
21.9
21.2
18.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.8
1.2
-3.2 -11.1
Nonmanufacturing
187.3 189.5 184.4 174.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
1.2
-2.7
-5.2
16.1
14.0
11.5
8.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
-4.8 -12.7 -17.7 -26.1
50.5
51.4
50.1
47.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.1
1.8
-2.6
-5.1
Wholesale Trade
9.8
10.5
10.4
9.9
Retail Trade
27.2
26.9
25.6
23.7
13.5
13.9
14.1
13.9
Information
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.6
-2.0
-3.3
-7.3
9.9
9.9
9.4
8.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9
-0.1
-5.3
-5.9
18.5
18.3
17.5
15.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
-1.0
-4.2
-9.4
26.1
27.6
28.3
28.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1
5.9
2.5
-0.1
17.3
17.7
17.4
16.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1
2.7
-1.7
-4.5
Other Services
6.8
7.7
7.4
7.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
6.7
13.5
-4.1
-5.2
Federal Government
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.2
0.3
-0.7
4.7
35.7
36.4
36.4
35.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.3
1.9
0.2
-1.6
187.7
-3.1
17.6
-6.6
170.0
-2.7
7.7
-9.5
47.5
0.0
10.0
23.7
13.8
2.1
-4.0
7.7
-12.8
15.4
-3.1
28.8
1.7
16.1
-3.2
6.5
-6.1
4.3
5.7
33.8
-5.5
187.5
-0.1
17.9
1.9
169.5
-0.3
7.5
-2.8
48.8
2.7
10.2
24.2
14.5
2.0
-7.0
7.4
-3.3
15.1
-1.6
29.4
2.3
16.4
1.5
6.3
-2.9
4.0
-7.1
32.5
-3.8
190.2
1.4
17.7
-1.1
172.4
1.7
7.7
3.0
50.6
3.6
10.6
24.8
15.1
1.8
-8.8
7.5
0.1
16.3
7.7
28.9
-1.7
16.9
3.4
6.5
2.8
3.9
-2.7
32.3
-0.7
195.1
2.6
17.9
1.3
177.1
2.7
8.0
3.5
51.7
2.2
10.9
24.6
16.2
1.7
-4.2
7.5
0.8
17.3
5.9
29.4
1.7
18.3
8.3
6.6
1.0
3.5
-10.5
33.1
2.5
202.3
3.7
18.6
3.9
183.6
3.7
8.5
7.1
52.9
2.3
11.1
24.6
17.1
1.7
-0.1
7.6
0.5
18.1
4.6
30.0
2.1
19.3
5.4
6.7
1.5
3.4
-2.8
35.5
7.3
206.7
2.2
18.9
1.2
187.8
2.3
9.5
11.0
53.9
1.9
11.4
24.8
17.7
1.7
1.1
7.6
0.2
18.9
4.5
30.5
1.7
19.6
1.5
6.7
0.1
3.4
-0.3
36.1
1.7
211.3
2.2
19.0
0.6
192.4
2.4
10.6
11.3
55.1
2.3
11.9
24.9
18.3
1.8
3.2
7.6
-0.1
19.6
3.6
31.3
2.6
19.8
1.1
6.7
0.1
3.3
-1.8
36.7
1.5
215.4
1.9
19.1
0.6
196.4
2.1
11.4
7.8
56.1
1.9
12.3
25.0
18.8
1.9
3.4
7.5
-0.9
20.1
2.8
32.1
2.5
20.1
1.5
6.7
0.7
3.3
-1.3
37.2
1.4
218.8
1.6
19.2
0.6
199.6
1.6
11.8
3.8
56.9
1.4
12.7
25.0
19.3
1.9
2.4
7.4
-0.9
20.5
2.2
32.9
2.4
20.3
1.3
6.8
0.6
3.2
-1.4
37.8
1.5

Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
688.5
1.4
300.9
0.7
17.3
853
847
7
696.4
1.2
299.8
-0.4
16.9
957
826
131
703.5
1.0
298.5
-0.4
15.2
1056
1043
14
710.7
1.0
297.9
-0.2
12.8
1203
1128
76
719.5
1.2
302.8
1.6
12.0
1401
1241
160
728.9
1.3
306.2
1.1
11.2
2478
2114
365
740.0
1.5
309.2
1.0
10.1
3365
2921
444
751.0
1.5
311.8
0.9
9.1
3664
3204
460
762.0
1.5
314.3
0.8
8.6
3824
3369
455

Pct Chg Year Ago
Wages and Salaries
Nonwage Income
Pct Chg Year Ago
Pct Chg Year Ago
62
663.4
0.9
284.5
0.2
7.4
3831
3692
138
668.4
0.8
289.0
1.6
8.1
2432
2318
114
672.6
0.6
293.2
1.4
10.4
1023
900
123
679.2
1.0
298.7
1.9
15.2
828
828
0
Va l l e jo - Fa i r f i e l d M S A
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
It is anticipated that the Vallejo-Fairfield MSA nonfarm
employment will continue to grow in the foreseeable
future starting with a 2.8% expected growth rate for 2014.
Nonfarm employment will increase 4% in the first quarter
of 2014 and 2.9% in the second quarter. The sector with
the highest growth rate is expected to be Professional &
Business Services with a 5.3% increase. Employment in
the sectors of Federal Government and Other services is
expected to decrease by 0.3% in 2015.
Real personal income is projected to raise 2.8% in 2014.
This increase is consistent with what we will see for the
upcoming years. After 2014, real personal income will

continue to increase at an average rate of 2.8% for the
remainder of the forecast.
The population of Vallejo-Fairfield MSA is expected
to grow 0.8% in 2014 and is projected to stay relatively
constant through 2018. Despite an increase in the labor
force of 2.1%, the unemployment rate is expected to
decrease to 8.0% in 2014 and 7.6% in 2015. A steady
decrease in the unemployment rate is expected for this MSA
with a projection of unemployment rate decreasing to 5.3%
by 2018.
Vallejo Real Personal Income

12%
Vallejo Payroll Employment

(Thousands)
150
10%
140
8%
130
6%
4%
120
2%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
110
-2%
100
-4%
90
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-6%
Vallejo and California Unemployment Rates

(percent)
14%
Vallejo-Fairfield Employment Mix Relative to California, 2011

(California = 100)
200
180
160
12%
140
10%
120
100
8%
80
60
6%
40
4%
20
0
Con.
Mfg.
TTU
Info.
Fin.
Bus.
EHS
Leis.
OTS
Gov.
2%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
63
METRO SUMMARY - VALLEJO/FAIRFIELD
Quarterly Outlook for Vallejo

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2
16.8
17.3
16.8
17.0
17.3
17.4
17.6
17.8
17.9
18.1
18.3
18.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.3
6.4
1.0
2.1
2.8
0.6
4.6
4.2
3.7
4.3
4.1
4.2
Wages and Salaries
6.8
7.0
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.8
Nonwage Income
10.1
10.3
10.1
10.0
10.1
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.7
14.6
14.9
14.5
14.7
14.9
14.9
15.0
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7
4.7
-0.3
1.0
1.6
-0.3
3.6
2.7
2.3
2.7
2.5
2.6
39.9
40.9
39.8
40.2
40.7
40.8
41.2
41.5
41.9
42.2
42.6
42.9
34.7
35.4
34.3
34.7
35.0
35.0
35.3
35.4
35.5
35.7
35.8
36.0
53.3
54.6
53.1
54.1
55.2
55.5
55.7
56.1
56.4
56.8
57.2
57.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.0
5.0
-1.4
2.1
3.4
1.6
5.0
3.7
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.6
119.5
120.8
120.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.0
2.2
1.7
Manufacturing
10.0
10.1
10.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.3
4.2
1.1
Nonmanufacturing
109.4
110.7
110.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.8
2.1
1.7
8.3
8.6
8.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2
6.3
9.5
25.8
26.1
26.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.7
4.2
2.7
Wholesale Trade
4.3
4.5
4.4
Retail Trade
16.8
16.7
16.7
4.7
4.9
4.9
Information
1.1
1.1
1.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.1
0.5
-1.1
5.0
5.0
5.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.5
0.3
-0.2
8.5
8.6
8.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
-5.0
-1.9
-1.8
19.3
19.6
19.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.9
3.6
2.2
13.3
13.6
13.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.5
0.5
4.7
Other Services
3.9
4.0
3.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
9.1
8.5
2.5
Federal Government
3.9
3.9
3.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
-5.0
-2.1
-4.4
20.2
20.1
20.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
-0.9
-1.7
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
64
421.6
0.9
217.2
0.8
10.0
610
560
51
422.3
0.8
217.7
0.7
9.6
600
546
54
423.1
0.8
218.6
1.0
9.2
582
540
42
122.2
2.8
10.0
0.7
112.2
3.0
8.5
7.8
26.5
2.7
4.5
17.0
5.0
1.1
-3.1
5.2
3.3
9.1
4.0
19.9
4.1
14.3
7.5
3.9
3.5
3.7
-5.2
20.1
-0.9
123.5
3.4
10.0
0.2
113.5
3.7
8.7
4.6
26.8
3.8
4.5
17.3
5.0
1.1
-1.0
5.2
4.7
9.2
8.7
20.3
5.1
14.4
7.9
4.0
1.3
3.7
-6.1
20.1
-0.7
124.7
3.2
10.1
-0.1
114.6
3.5
8.8
1.9
27.1
3.8
4.6
17.5
5.1
1.2
4.7
5.3
6.1
9.5
10.0
20.5
4.8
14.5
6.3
4.0
-0.6
3.7
-5.9
20.1
-0.3
125.2
4.0
10.2
1.2
115.1
4.2
8.9
2.2
27.2
4.5
4.6
17.5
5.1
1.2
4.7
5.3
6.4
9.6
10.6
20.6
5.6
14.6
5.1
4.0
2.8
3.7
-1.5
20.1
0.8
125.8
2.9
10.2
2.0
115.6
3.0
9.0
5.9
27.2
2.9
4.6
17.5
5.1
1.2
6.4
5.3
2.7
9.7
6.3
20.7
4.1
14.6
2.1
4.0
2.1
3.7
1.1
20.2
0.4
126.5
2.5
10.4
3.1
116.2
2.4
9.2
6.1
27.3
2.1
4.6
17.6
5.2
1.2
5.5
5.3
1.7
9.8
5.5
20.8
2.2
14.7
1.9
4.0
1.0
3.7
1.6
20.2
0.8
127.2
2.0
10.4
3.0
116.8
1.9
9.4
7.4
27.4
1.2
4.7
17.6
5.2
1.2
0.0
5.3
0.2
9.9
4.1
20.8
1.6
14.8
1.7
4.0
0.5
3.7
1.6
20.3
0.9
127.9
2.2
10.4
2.8
117.5
2.1
9.7
8.9
27.5
1.3
4.7
17.6
5.2
1.2
-0.9
5.3
0.2
10.0
4.9
20.9
1.7
14.8
1.6
4.0
0.1
3.7
0.5
20.3
1.0
128.6
2.2
10.5
2.2
118.1
2.2
9.9
10.0
27.6
1.2
4.7
17.6
5.3
1.2
0.9
5.3
0.6
10.2
5.3
21.0
1.7
14.8
1.6
4.0
-0.2
3.7
-0.3
20.4
1.1
423.9
0.8
221.4
2.0
8.2
1089
615
474
424.8
0.8
219.3
1.0
8.0
777
529
248
425.6
0.8
219.8
1.0
7.9
524
318
206
426.5
0.8
222.7
1.9
8.0
723
455
268
427.3
0.8
223.6
1.0
8.0
948
604
344
428.3
0.8
224.8
2.5
8.0
1037
658
379
429.2
0.8
226.0
2.8
8.0
1110
706
404
430.1
0.9
226.9
1.9
7.8
1193
756
437
431.1
0.9
227.7
1.8
7.6
1268
849
419
Quarterly Outlook for Vallejo

2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
18.7
18.8
19.1
19.3
19.5
19.7
20.0
20.2
20.5
20.7
20.9
21.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
Wages and Salaries
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.0
Nonwage Income
10.8
10.8
11.0
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.5
11.6
11.8
11.9
12.1
12.2
15.6
15.7
15.8
15.9
16.0
16.1
16.3
16.4
16.5
16.6
16.7
16.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.5
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.9
43.2
43.5
44.0
44.4
44.7
45.1
45.6
46.0
46.5
46.8
47.3
47.8
36.1
36.2
36.4
36.6
36.7
36.9
37.1
37.3
37.4
37.6
37.8
38.0
58.0
58.3
58.7
59.1
59.5
59.8
60.2
60.7
61.1
61.4
61.9
62.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
129.4
130.2
130.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2
2.3
2.3
Manufacturing
10.5
10.5
10.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
1.6
1.4
Nonmanufacturing
118.9
119.6
120.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3
2.4
2.4
10.2
10.5
10.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
10.7
11.5
12.0
27.7
27.8
27.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
1.3
1.4
Wholesale Trade
4.7
4.8
4.8
Retail Trade
17.6
17.7
17.7
5.3
5.4
5.4
Information
1.2
1.2
1.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7
2.6
2.6
5.4
5.4
5.4
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.4
0.4
0.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.5
5.5
4.8
21.1
21.2
21.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7
1.8
1.9
14.9
14.9
14.9
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4
1.1
0.9
Other Services
4.0
4.0
4.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
Federal Government
3.7
3.7
3.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.8
-0.8
-1.6
20.5
20.5
20.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
1.3
1.4
Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
432.1
0.9
228.5
1.7
7.5
1356
945
411
433.1
0.9
229.3
1.5
7.3
1481
1025
456
434.2
0.9
230.0
1.4
7.1
1578
1098
479
131.7
2.4
10.6
1.3
121.1
2.5
11.1
12.2
28.0
1.6
4.9
17.7
5.5
1.2
2.6
5.4
0.2
10.6
4.4
21.5
2.2
15.0
0.9
4.0
-0.2
3.7
-1.6
20.7
1.5
132.5
2.4
10.6
1.1
121.9
2.5
11.4
12.1
28.1
1.6
4.9
17.7
5.5
1.2
3.4
5.3
-0.2
10.7
4.4
21.6
2.4
15.0
0.9
4.0
-0.1
3.6
-1.6
20.8
1.5
133.2
2.4
10.6
1.0
122.6
2.5
11.7
11.5
28.2
1.5
4.9
17.8
5.5
1.2
2.5
5.3
-0.7
10.9
4.3
21.7
2.5
15.1
0.9
4.0
0.1
3.6
-1.6
20.9
1.6
134.0
2.4
10.7
0.9
123.3
2.5
12.0
10.5
28.3
1.5
4.9
17.8
5.6
1.2
4.2
5.3
-0.9
11.0
4.3
21.9
2.4
15.1
1.2
4.0
0.4
3.6
-1.4
20.9
1.6
134.6
2.2
10.7
1.0
123.9
2.3
12.2
9.4
28.4
1.4
5.0
17.8
5.6
1.3
4.2
5.3
-1.5
11.0
3.9
22.0
2.4
15.2
1.2
4.0
0.6
3.6
-1.4
21.0
1.6
135.3
2.1
10.7
1.0
124.5
2.2
12.3
7.9
28.5
1.4
5.0
17.9
5.7
1.3
2.5
5.3
-1.7
11.1
3.6
22.1
2.5
15.2
1.3
4.0
0.7
3.6
-1.4
21.1
1.7
135.9
2.0
10.7
1.0
125.1
2.1
12.5
6.4
28.6
1.3
5.0
17.9
5.7
1.3
3.3
5.2
-1.7
11.2
3.2
22.3
2.6
15.2
1.3
4.0
0.8
3.6
-1.4
21.2
1.7
136.3
1.8
10.8
0.9
125.6
1.8
12.6
5.2
28.7
1.2
5.0
17.9
5.7
1.3
1.6
5.2
-1.7
11.3
2.9
22.4
2.4
15.3
1.1
4.1
0.6
3.6
-1.4
21.3
1.9
136.9
1.7
10.8
1.0
126.0
1.7
12.7
4.1
28.7
1.2
5.1
17.9
5.8
1.3
1.6
5.2
-1.5
11.3
2.7
22.5
2.4
15.3
1.0
4.1
0.4
3.6
-1.1
21.4
1.9
435.2
1.0
230.7
1.3
6.8
1650
1160
490
436.3
1.0
231.4
1.3
6.4
1693
1195
498
437.4
1.0
232.1
1.2
6.2
1712
1201
511
438.4
1.0
232.8
1.2
6.0
1729
1196
532
439.5
1.0
233.5
1.2
5.8
1728
1198
530
440.5
1.0
234.2
1.2
5.6
1725
1198
527
441.5
1.0
234.9
1.2
5.5
1742
1208
534
442.6
1.0
235.6
1.2
5.4
1762
1228
534
443.7
1.0
236.4
1.2
5.4
1774
1252
522
65
Annual Outlook for Vallejo

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
14.9
5.2
6.0
8.9
14.5
2.4
36.5
35.6
43.4
4.7
15.6
4.8
6.3
9.4
14.8
2.2
38.2
36.3
46.2
6.2
15.9
1.8
6.5
9.4
14.7
-1.2
38.9
35.8
49.2
6.5
15.5
-2.3
6.6
8.9
14.3
-2.2
37.8
34.9
51.4
4.5
15.4
-0.8
6.5
8.9
14.0
-2.4
37.2
33.8
52.0
1.1
16.2
5.0
6.6
9.6
14.3
2.5
38.8
34.4
52.8
1.5
16.9
4.2
6.8
10.1
14.7
2.3
40.0
34.8
53.7
1.8
17.1
1.6
7.1
10.1
14.8
0.5
40.4
34.8
54.5
1.4
17.9
4.2
7.5
10.3
15.2
2.8
41.7
35.5
56.3
3.4
18.6
4.1
7.9
10.7
15.5
2.5
43.0
36.0
57.8
2.6
19.4
4.5
8.3
11.2
16.0
2.7
44.6
36.6
59.3
2.6
20.3
4.8
8.7
11.7
16.4
2.9
46.2
37.3
60.8
2.7
21.3
4.8
9.0
12.3
16.9
2.9
48.0
38.0
62.6
3.0

129.9 128.4 125.6 121.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.9
-1.2
-2.2
-3.7
Manufacturing
10.6
10.6
10.3
9.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
5.3
0.3
-2.6
-4.7
Nonmanufacturing
119.3 117.8 115.3 111.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.5
-1.3
-2.1
-3.6
13.0
11.0
9.5
7.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
-5.6 -14.8 -13.2 -19.7
27.7
27.3
26.9
25.6
Pct Chg Year Ago
0.1
-1.4
-1.4
-4.7
Wholesale Trade
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
Retail Trade
18.8
18.3
17.7
16.3
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
Information
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.3
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.9
-5.7
-3.6 -10.6
6.2
5.6
5.1
5.1
Pct Chg Year Ago
-0.9
-9.8
-9.1
-0.1
11.5
11.5
10.6
10.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3
0.2
-7.4
1.4
16.2
17.0
17.4
17.8
Pct Chg Year Ago
3.0
4.3
2.6
2.4
13.0
13.3
13.4
13.2
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.7
2.4
1.0
-1.5
Other Services
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.7
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.9
-3.7
-2.5
-5.9
Federal Government
3.9
4.0
3.8
4.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
-1.2
0.3
-3.2
4.3
22.1
22.7
23.1
22.0
Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8
2.7
1.9
-4.6
117.5
-2.9
9.7
-1.3
107.8
-3.0
7.4
-3.2
25.3
-1.1
4.1
16.4
4.8
1.3
-2.8
5.2
2.4
8.8
-18.1
18.3
2.9
13.0
-1.4
3.6
-2.0
4.6
15.1
20.3
-7.8
117.4
-0.2
9.6
-0.9
107.7
-0.1
8.0
8.8
24.9
-1.7
4.0
16.5
4.4
1.1
-12.2
5.1
-2.0
8.8
0.1
18.7
2.0
13.1
1.0
3.6
1.7
4.2
-7.7
20.1
-1.1
119.4
1.7
10.0
4.0
109.4
1.5
8.2
2.0
25.7
3.3
4.3
16.8
4.7
1.1
-0.6
5.0
-1.8
8.7
-1.6
19.3
3.1
13.4
1.9
3.9
7.2
3.9
-7.5
20.2
0.8
122.7
2.8
10.0
0.5
112.7
3.0
8.7
5.9
26.6
3.2
4.5
17.1
5.0
1.1
-0.1
5.2
3.5
9.1
5.2
20.0
4.0
14.3
6.6
4.0
1.7
3.7
-5.4
20.0
-0.9
126.2
2.8
10.3
2.3
115.9
2.9
9.1
5.4
27.3
2.7
4.6
17.5
5.1
1.2
4.2
5.3
2.8
9.7
6.6
20.7
3.4
14.6
2.7
4.0
1.6
3.7
0.7
20.2
0.8
129.0
2.2
10.5
2.0
118.5
2.3
10.1
10.3
27.6
1.3
4.7
17.6
5.3
1.2
1.1
5.3
0.4
10.2
5.3
21.1
1.7
14.9
1.4
4.0
-0.3
3.7
-0.3
20.4
1.2
132.1
2.4
10.6
1.2
121.5
2.5
11.3
11.9
28.0
1.5
4.9
17.7
5.5
1.2
2.8
5.3
-0.1
10.7
4.5
21.5
2.2
15.0
0.9
4.0
-0.1
3.6
-1.6
20.7
1.5
134.9
2.2
10.7
1.0
124.2
2.3
12.2
8.6
28.4
1.4
5.0
17.8
5.6
1.3
3.5
5.3
-1.5
11.1
3.8
22.1
2.5
15.2
1.2
4.0
0.6
3.6
-1.4
21.1
1.7
137.0
1.6
10.8
1.1
126.2
1.6
12.7
3.8
28.7
1.0
5.1
17.9
5.8
1.3
1.8
5.2
-1.5
11.4
2.5
22.6
2.3
15.3
0.9
4.1
0.4
3.6
-1.3
21.5
1.9

Population (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Labor Force (Ths.)
Pct Chg Year Ago
Single-Family
Multifamily
414.4
0.8
214.9
0.1
12.0
532
532
0
417.5
0.7
215.3
0.2
11.5
414
414
0
421.1
0.9
217.1
0.8
10.1
534
489
45
424.4
0.8
219.7
1.2
8.3
743
500
242
427.8
0.8
224.3
2.1
8.0
955
606
349
431.6
0.9
228.1
1.7
7.6
1324
894
431
435.8
1.0
231.1
1.3
6.6
1658
1164
494
440.0
1.0
233.8
1.2
5.7
1731
1200
531
444.2
1.0
236.7
1.2
5.3
1780
1256
524

Pct Chg Year Ago
Wages and Salaries
Nonwage Income
Pct Chg Year Ago
Pct Chg Year Ago
66
408.4
0.0
208.4
-0.2
4.9
1241
1129
113
408.4
0.0
208.5
0.0
5.3
1024
873
150
409.2
0.2
211.2
1.3
6.9
472
353
118
411.0
0.4
214.7
1.6
10.6
602
589
13
B U S I N E S S
C E N T E R
University of the Pacic

A national doctoral university, University of the Pacific is recognized for an education combining exceptional
professional preparation in a student-centered tradition of close interactions between students and professors.
With a core liberal arts college and eight professional schools, more than any university enrolling fewer than 10,000
students, Pacific offers professional opportunities associated with far larger institutions in the environment of a small
learning community. Pacific is Californias first chartered institution of higher learning, having received its articles of
incorporation from the California Supreme Court on July 10, 1851. The University enrolls more than 5,600 students
on three campuses situated in the Northern California cities of San Francisco, Stockton and Sacramento.
President Pamela A. Eibeck
www.pacific.edu
Eberhardt School of Business
The Eberhardt School of Business offers a Masters in Business Administration, a Bachelor of Science in Business
Administration, and a Minor in Management to approximately 600 students. With an emphasis on small classes and
close student-faculty relationships, the program is committed to developing successful future business leaders. In
addition to developing well-rounded and highly skilled graduates, the Eberhardt School of Business has demonstrated
its commitment to community service and regional economic development through a variety of outreach programs
and activities including the Business Forecasting Center, Career Management Center, Center for Entrepreneurship,
Institute for Family Business, Invention Evaluation Service, and Westgate Center for Management Development.
Dean Lewis R. Gale
www.business.pacific.edu
Business Forecasting Center
The Business Forecasting Center, founded in 2004 and housed in the Eberhardt School of Business, produces
quarterly economic forecasts of the United States, California and 10 metropolitan areas from Sacramento to Fresno
to the San Francisco Bay Area. In addition to its forecasting program, the Center offers consulting services to
businesses and government including economic impact studies, survey analysis, econometric studies, market sizing
and forecasting.
Jeffrey A. Michael, Ph.D.

Director, Business Forecasting Center
Ph.D., North Carolina State University; M.S.,
University of Maine; B.A., Hamilton College (NY)
Dr. Jeffrey Michael is Director of the Business Forecasting Center and Associate
Professor in the Eberhardt School of Business at the University of the Pacific.
Jeffs areas of expertise include regional economic forecasting and
environmental economics including work on the economic impacts of the
Endangered Species Act, climate change, and regulation on land use, property
values and employment growth.
His research has received numerous grants, been published in scholarly journals
and received local and national press coverage including the Wall Street Journal,
New York Times Magazine, San Francisco Chronicle, Washington Post, NPR, and PBS.
Prior to joining Pacific in 2008, Jeff was faculty at Towson University in Maryland where he served as Director of the
Center for Applied Business and Economic Research, Associate Dean, and faculty. Jeff received his Ph.D. from North
Carolina State University, M.S. from the University of Maine, and B.A. from Hamilton College (NY).
EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
BusinessForecasting
Center

California Economic Forecast January 2014

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B U S I N E S S

California & Metro

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their

California & Metro Forecast

Dr. Jeffrey A. Michael

San Luis Obispo

California Highlights .................................................. 5

Highlights of the January 2014 California Forecast

University of the Pacic Business Forecasting Center

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF DROUGHT:

Table 1. California Annual Forecast Summary

Real Gross State Product (% change)

Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change)

Unemployment Rate (%)

Housing Starts (thousands)

California & Metro Forecast - January 2014

regulations, the drought, the impacts of the deep 2009

in conservation, alternative water supplies, and storage;

warehousing and transportation has yet to show up in the

will fall below 2% by 2016 as high housing costs and

Table 2. Central Valley Metro Forecast Summary

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (% change)

Unemployment Rate (%)

California & Metro Forecast - January 2014

Table 3. Bay Area Metro Forecast Summary

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (% change)

Unemployment Rate (%)

Stockton voters narrowly passed the cent sales tax

University of the Pacic Business Forecasting Center

CHANGING INCOME INEQUALITY IN NORTHERN

The data shows the trend in rising inequality in the U.S.

Table 4. Historic Gini Coefficents

Contra Costa County

San Francisco County

San Mateo County

Santa Clara County

San Benito County

Santa Cruz MSA

San Francisco MSA

San Jose MSA

California & Metro Forecast - January 2014

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for California

Personal Income and Gross State Product

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

University of the Pacic Business Forecasting Center

Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for California

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

California & Metro Forecast - January 2014

Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for California

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

University of the Pacic Business Forecasting Center

Table 3. Employment Quarterly

Computer & Electronics

Transportation, Warehouse & Util.

Admin. & Support

Prof. Sci. & Tech.

California & Metro Forecast - January 2014

Table 3. Employment Quarterly

Computer & Electronics

Transportation, Warehouse & Util.

Admin. & Support

Prof. Sci. & Tech.

Prof. & Bus. Services

University of the Pacic Business Forecasting Center