Myers Blended Index

Analysis of Deviations of the percentage of the blended population from 10 along each of the
terminal digits:
2001 Population Census:

Figure 1: Deviations of the percentage of the blended population from 10 along each of the terminal
digits, 2001 population census
Figure 1 describes the deviations of the percentage of the blended population of 2001 census
from 10 along each of the terminal digits. The most preferred terminal digits while reporting age
were 0 and 5 and most least mentioned were 1, 9, and 3.

Figure 2: Comparison of the deviations of the percentage of the blended male and female population
from 10 along each of the terminal digits, 2001 population census.
Figure 2 compares the deviations of the percentage of the blended total male and female
population from 10 along each of the terminal digits. The most preferred terminal digits while
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
D
e
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o
f

%

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t
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a
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p
o
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u
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a
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f
r
o
m

1
0
Terminal digit
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
D
e
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%

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1
0
Terminal digit
Male
Female
reporting age were 0 and 5, with the preference level for males only slightly greater than that for
females and most least mentioned were 1, 3, and9. That means there is an avoidance of ages
ending in 1, 3 and 9, with males avoiding digits slightly more than females in case of 1 and 9
and females avoiding these digits slightly more than males in case of 3
2011 Population Census

Figure 3: Deviations of the percentage of the blended population from 10 along each of the terminal
digits, 2011 population census.
Figure 3 describes the deviations of the percentage of the blended population of 2011 census
from 10 along each of the terminal digits. The most preferred terminal digits while reporting age
were 0 and 5 and most least mentioned were 1, 9, and 7.

Figure 4: Comparison of the deviations of the percentage of the blended male and female population
from 10 along each of the terminal digits, 2011 population census.
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
D
e
v
i
a
t
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o
n

o
f

%

f
r
o
m

b
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p
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1
0
Terminal digit
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
D
e
v
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a
t
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o
n

o
f

%

f
r
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b
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1
0
Terminal digit
Male
Female
Figure 4 compares the deviations of the percentage of the blended total male and female
population from 10 along each of the terminal digits. The most preferred terminal digits while
reporting age were 0 and 5, with the preference level for females only slightly greater than that
for males and most least mentioned were 1, 9, and 7. That means there is an avoidance of ages
ending in 1, 9 and 7, with males avoiding digits slightly more than females in case of 9 and
females avoiding these digits slightly more than males in case of 1 and 7.

.

Theoretically, if there is no age heaping, Myers' Blended Index will be zero. The theoretical
maximum of Myers' Blended Index is 90, which would result if the entire population reported ages
ending in the same digit.

Myers' Blended Index for the total population in the 2011 census was 27.14 whilst it was 33.19 in
the 2001 census implying that age reporting is becoming better in 2011 census.

MBI summary values for Bangladeshi males and females in 2001 were 32.65 and 33.75 and for both
male and female the index value decreases consecutively to 26.54 and 27.74. Moreover from
Figure 5 it is evident that age reporting for male is always better than female.
25.50
26.50
27.50
28.50
29.50
30.50
31.50
32.50
33.50
34.50
2001 2011
M
y
e
r
s
'

i
n
d
e
x
Census years
Total
Male
Female
Figure 5: Trends of Myers Blended Index for male, female and total Population from 20001
census to 2011 population census
Myers Index Calculations for 2001 Population Census:

Table 1: Calculation of Preference Indexes of Terminal Digits by Myers Blended Method, for Total Population of Bangladesh: 2001
Terminal
digits
Population with terminal digit a Weights for Blended Population Deviation of
percent from
10.00
(6)-10=
(7)
Starting at age
10+a
(1)
Starting at age
20+a
(2)
Column 1
(3)
Column 2
(4)
Number
(1) (3) + (2) (4)
(5)
Percent
distribution

(6)
0 25359560 21023680 1 9 214572680 28.27 18.27
1 4332740 2157600 2 8 25926280 3.42 6.58
2 10743060 6539520 3 7 78005820 10.28 0.28
3 4812060 2430200 4 6 33829440 4.46 5.54
4 4925240 2169740 5 5 35474900 4.67 5.33
5 19570180 16429680 6 4 183139800 24.13 14.13
6 4803840 2645200 7 3 41562480 5.48 4.52
7 4356520 2601580 8 2 40055320 5.28 4.72
8 8339760 4820480 9 1 79878320 10.52 0.52
9 2667600 1277700 10 0 26676000 3.51 6.49
Total 759121040 100.00 66.38
Summary index of age preference = Total 2 33.19






Table 2: Calculation of Preference Indexes of Terminal Digits by Myers Blended Method, for Total Male Population of Bangladesh: 2001
Terminal digits
Male Population with terminal digit a Weights for Blended Population
Deviation of
percent from
10.00
(6)-10=
(7)
Starting at age
10+a
(1)
Starting at age 20+a
(2)
Column 1
(3)
Column 2
(4)
Number
(1) (3) + (2) (4)
(5)
Percent
distribution
(6)
0 12802340 10472080 1 9 107051060 27.71 17.71
1 2221620 1089240 2 8 13157160 3.41 6.59
2 5585280 3312160 3 7 39940960 10.34 0.34
3 2465840 1236300 4 6 17281160 4.47 5.53
4 2572880 1118200 5 5 18455400 4.78 5.22
5 9995180 8230900 6 4 92894680 24.04 14.04
6 2591800 1396340 7 3 22331620 5.78 4.22
7 2330680 1337680 8 2 21320800 5.52 4.48
8 4250380 2548180 9 1 40801600 10.56 0.56
9 1313800 677140 10 0 13138000 3.40 6.60
386372440 100.00 65.29
Summary index of age preference = Total 2 32.65




Table 3: Calculation of Preference Indexes of Terminal Digits by Myers Blended Method, for Total Female Population of Bangladesh: 2001
Terminal digits
Female Population with terminal digit a Weights for Blended Population Deviation of
percent
from 10.00
(6)-10=
(7)
Starting at age
10+a
(1)
Starting at age 20+a
(2)
Column 1
(3)
Column 2
(4)
Number
(1) (3) + (2)
(4)
(5)
Percent
distribution
(6)
0 12557220 10551600 1 9 107521620 28.85 18.85
1 2111120 1068360 2 8 12769120 3.43 6.57
2 5157780 3227360 3 7 38064860 10.21 0.21
3 2346220 1193900 4 6 16548280 4.44 5.56
4 2352360 1051540 5 5 17019500 4.57 5.43
5 9575000 8198780 6 4 90245120 24.21 14.21
6 2212040 1248860 7 3 19230860 5.16 4.84
7 2025840 1263900 8 2 18734520 5.03 4.97
8 4089380 2272300 9 1 39076720 10.48 0.48
9 1353800 600560 10 0 13538000 3.63 6.37
372748600 100.00 67.50
Summary index of age preference = Total 2 33.75







Myers Index Calculations for 2011 Population Census:
Table 4: Calculation of Preference Indexes of Terminal Digits by Myers Blended Method, for Total Population of Bangladesh: 2011
Terminal digits
Population with terminal digit a Weights for Blended Population Deviation of
percent
from 10.00
(6)-10=
(7)
Starting at age
10+a
(1)
Starting at age 20+a
(2)
Column 1
(3)
Column 2
(4)
Number
(1) (3) + (2)
(4)
(5)
Percent
distribution
(6)
0 27518166 23315722 1 9 237359664 25.08 15.08
1 6645042 3818077 2 8 43834700 4.63 5.37
2 12257798 8370145 3 7 95364409 10.08 0.08
3 7110449 4335269 4 6 54453410 5.75 4.25
4 6894373 3940000 5 5 54171865 5.72 4.28
5 21509836 18583260 6 4 203392056 21.49 11.49
6 6770330 4375123 7 3 60517679 6.39 3.61
7 5611866 3668849 8 2 52232626 5.52 4.48
8 10295198 6644157 9 1 99300939 10.49 0.49
9 4579883 2633834 10 0 45798830 4.84 5.16
Total 946426178 100.00 54.28
Summary index of age preference = Total 2 27.14




Table 5: Calculation of Preference Indexes of Terminal Digits by Myers Blended Method, for Total Male Population of Bangladesh: 2011
Terminal
digits
Male Population with terminal digit a Weights for Blended Population Deviation of
percent from
10.00
(6)-10=
(7)
Starting at age
10+a
(1)
Starting at age 20+a
(2)
Column 1
(3)
Column 2
(4)
Number
(1) (3) + (2)
(4)
(5)
Percent
distribution
(6)
0 13478995 11265582 1 9 114869233 24.57 14.57
1 3349189 1901006 2 8 21906426 4.69 5.31
2 6186293 4147745 3 7 47593094 10.18 0.18
3 3510592 2118891 4 6 26755714 5.72 4.28
4 3467519 1944475 5 5 27059970 5.79 4.21
5 10561788 8959699 6 4 99209524 21.22 11.22
6 3527042 2215491 7 3 31335767 6.70 3.30
7 3001324 1902712 8 2 27816016 5.95 4.05
8 5111991 3426304 9 1 49434223 10.57 0.57
9 2154662 1343109 10 0 21546620 4.61 5.39
Total 467526587 100.00 53.09
Summary index of age preference = Total 2 26.54






Table 6: Calculation of Preference Indexes of Terminal Digits by Myers Blended Method, for Total Female Population of Bangladesh: 2011
Terminal
digits
Male Population with terminal digit a Weights for Blended Population Deviation
of percent
from 10.00
(6)-10=
(7)
Starting at age
10+a
(1)
Starting at age 20+a
(2)
Column 1
(3)
Column 2
(4)
Number
(1) (3) + (2)
(4)
(5)
Percent
distribution
(6)
0 14039171 12050140 1 9 122490431 25.58 15.58
1 3295853 1917071 2 8 21928274 4.58 5.42
2 6071505 4222400 3 7 47771315 9.98 0.02
3 3599857 2216378 4 6 27697696 5.78 4.22
4 3426854 1995525 5 5 27111895 5.66 4.34
5 10948048 9623561 6 4 104182532 21.75 11.75
6 3243288 2159632 7 3 29181912 6.09 3.91
7 2610542 1766137 8 2 24416610 5.10 4.90
8 5183207 3217853 9 1 49866716 10.41 0.41
9 2425221 1290725 10 0 24252210 5.06 4.94
Total 478899591 100.00 55.49
Summary index of age preference = Total 2 27.74






United Nations Age-Sex Accuracy Index
Age ratio analysis:
Figure 6 is a graph of the age ratios for males and females for each of the five-year age groups of 5
to 9 through 65 to 69 for Bangladesh in 2011. The highest age ratio shown in Figure is 131.03 for
females in age group 60-64 and 125.58 for males in age group 60-64. The largest negative age
ratios are 71.79 for females in age group 65-69 and 74.70 for males in the age group 65-69.

Figure 6: Age ratios by sex for five-year age groups, Bangladesh, 2001 Population Census.

The value of 71.79 for females in age group 65-69 and 74.70 for males in age group 65-69 means
that there are consecutively 28% fewer females and 25% fewer males in the age group 65-69 than
the sum of the numbers of persons in the age group 65-69 and the preceding and following age
groups of 65-69. These low values could reflect age misreporting, but there are also substantive
reasons for the low values. For instance, high mortality in these age groups. But from the chart
trends it is evident that because there is about 31% more females and 26% more males than the
sum of the numbers of persons in the age group 60-64 and the preceding and following age
groups of 60-64. So it can inferred that the excessive number of male or female in 60-64 age group
is misreported and the excess number of male and female have come from the preceding and
following age groups possibly from 55-59 and 65-69 age group.
68
73
78
83
88
93
98
103
108
113
118
123
128
133
A
g
e

r
a
t
i
o
s
Age groups
Male
Female
Figure 7 is a graph of the age ratios for males and females for each of the five-year age groups of 5
to 9 through 65 to 69 for Bangladesh in 2011. The highest age ratio shown in Figure is 126.49 for
females in age group 60-64 and 121.14 for males in age group 60-64. The largest negative age
ratios are 75.27 for females in age group 65-69 and 77.72 for males in the age group 65-69.

Figure 7: Age ratios by sex for five-year age groups, Bangladesh, 2011 Population Census.

In 2011 the age ratio has been improved from compared to 2001 census statistics, now there are
consecutively 25% fewer females and 22% fewer males in the age group 65-69 than the sum of the
numbers of persons in the age group 65-69 and the preceding and following age groups of 65-69
and about 26% more females and 21% more males than the sum of the numbers of persons in the
age group 60-64 and the preceding and following age groups of 60-64. But the conclusion of this
scenario remains same that the excessive number of male or female in 60-64 age group is
misreported and the excess number of male and female have come from the preceding and
following age groups possibly from 55-59 and 65-69 age group.
Another interesting point that can be decipher from Figure 6 and Figure 7 is that there are
11% fewer female reported in 2001 and 13% fewer female reported in 2011 in the 15-19 age
group and the subsequent age group 20-24 and 25-29 have excess reported number of
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
A
g
e

r
a
t
i
o
s
Age groups
Male
Female
female. This imply that 15-19 females in Bangladesh has the tendency to report age more
than their actually possibly to justify the early marriage (before 18 years of age) and early
child bearing and offcourse because of less education.
Table 7: Trends of United Nations Age-Sex Accuracy Index in 2001 and 2011 Population
Census of Bangladesh
Census years United Nations Age-Sex Accuracy Index
2001 48.48
2011 40.77







Another index using uniform distribution but only based on population distribution by sex and 5-
year age groups is the Age-sex Accuracy index developed by the United Nations (UNI). This index
tells us how accurate the population structure by sex and 5-year age groups is. Standards for
quality of sex and 5-year age group distribution with this index are:
<20: Accurate
20 to 40: Inaccurate
>40: Very inaccurate
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
2001 2011
U
n
i
t
e
d

N
a
t
i
o
n
s

A
g
e
-
S
e
x

A
c
c
u
r
a
c
y

I
n
d
e
x

Census Years
Figure 8: Trends of United Nations Age-Sex Accuracy Index for total Population from
20001 census to 2011 population census

Table 7 are UNI for population structure by sex and 5-year age groups for Censuses of 2001 and
2011.

Statistics in this table indicate that the values of UNI for two Censuses in Bangladesh were 48.48
points in 2001 and 40.77 points in 2011.Thus, it can be said that the accuracy of combined sex and
age indexes in the population census of 2011 improved from 2001 census but following
international classifications it is still very inaccurate.

Table 8: Calculation of the United Nations Age-Sex Accuracy Index, for Total Population of Bangladesh: 2001
Age group
Population Analysis of sex ratios Analysis of age ratios
Male Female
Male

Female

Ratio
Successive
difference

Ratio
1



Deviations
from 100

Ratio
1
Deviations
from 100
(1) (2)
[(1)(2)100]=
(3)
(3)=
(4) (5)
(5)-100=
(6) (7)
(7)-100=
(8)
0-4 years 8361980 7724100 108.26 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
5-9 years 8822360 7955740 110.89 -2.63 103.37 3.37 103.27 3.27
10-14 years 8419980 7431940 113.29 -2.40 107.33 7.33 105.87 5.87
15-19 years 6291600 5671660 110.93 2.36 96.45 -3.55 88.80 -11.20
20-24 years 4858780 6056920 80.22 30.71 90.85 -9.15 103.28 3.28
25-29 years 4894500 5865140 83.45 -3.23 104.39 4.39 107.57 7.57
30-34 years 4312760 4435700 97.23 -13.78 96.48 -3.52 94.41 -5.59
35-39 years 4203620 3794700 110.78 -13.55 105.60 5.60 103.45 3.45
40-44 years 3425820 2774280 123.49 -12.71 100.37 0.37 97.23 -2.77
45-49 years 2610480 1990680 131.14 -7.65 95.37 -4.63 90.61 -9.39
50-54 years 2175300 1826300 119.11 12.03 107.07 7.07 112.64 12.64
55-59 years 1309380 1047060 125.05 -5.94 78.35 -21.65 75.27 -24.73
60-64 years 1528940 1299700 117.64 7.42 125.58 25.58 131.03 31.03
65-69 years 814140 629000 129.43 -11.80 74.70 -25.30 71.79 -28.21
70-74 years 926380 699860 132.37 -2.93 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Total (irrespective of sign) (X) (X) (X) 129.14 (X) 121.51 (X) 148.99
Mean (X) (X) (X) 9.22 (X) 9.35 (X) 11.46
Index = 3 times mean difference in sex ratios plus mean deviations of male and female age ratio = 3 9.22 + 9.35 + 11.46 = 48.48

1
An age ratio is defined here as
P
a S
13( P
a-S S
+ P
a S
+ P
a
+5
S
)
1uu
Table 9: Calculation of the United Nations Age-Sex Accuracy Index, for Total Population of Bangladesh: 2011
Age group
Population Analysis of sex ratios Analysis of age ratios
Male Female
Male

Female

Ratio
Successive
difference

Ratio


Deviations
from 100

Ratio
2

Deviations
from 100
(1) (2)
[(1)(2)100]=
(3)
(3)=
(4) (5)
(5)-100=
(6) (7)
(7)-100=
(8)
0-4 years 7638523 7423447 102.90 (X) (X) (X) (X)
5-9 years 9322514 8850715 105.33 -2.43 109.35 9.35 109.24 9.24
10-14 years 8614889 8031726 107.26 -1.93 105.72 5.72 103.70 3.70
15-19 years 6509492 6352398 102.47 4.79 93.43 -6.57 86.99 -13.01
20-24 years 5777370 7522419 76.80 25.67 93.63 -6.37 106.81 6.81
25-29 years 6225252 7254256 85.82 -9.01 109.33 9.33 107.75 7.75
30-34 years 5079106 5420659 93.70 -7.88 95.22 -4.78 92.75 -7.25
35-39 years 4697349 4859079 96.67 -2.97 100.25 0.25 102.22 2.22
40-44 years 4280923 3980739 107.54 -10.87 104.06 4.06 100.72 0.72
45-49 years 3363273 3016800 111.48 -3.94 95.22 -4.78 94.30 -5.70
50-54 years 2952596 2599675 113.58 -2.09 107.51 7.51 108.41 8.41
55-59 years 1923534 1577463 121.94 -8.36 82.94 -17.06 78.48 -21.52
60-64 years 2081306 1852708 112.34 9.60 121.14 21.14 126.49 26.49
65-69 years 1149569 963921 119.26 -6.92 77.72 -22.28 75.27 -24.73
70-74 years 1206398 1025314 117.66 1.60 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Total (irrespective of sign) (X) (X) (X) 98.08 (X) 119.19 (X) 137.55
Mean (X) (X) (X) 7.01 (X) 9.17 (X) 10.58
Index = 3 times mean difference in sex ratios plus mean deviations of male and female age ratio = 3 7.01 + 9.17 + 10.58 = 40.77

2
An age ratio is defined here as
P
a S
13( P
a-S S
+ P
a S
+ P
a
+5
S
)
1uu