Series 7.

75
17.5
8.75
8.25
7.25
7 Date
6.75
6.5
6.5
6.5

no
Holt
Winters Selected
Forecast of Series
Fitted
117.91690953
Values
Jan-09
8.37554724
Feb-09
8.500515494
Mar-09
Apr-09
7.361205861
May-09
7.15752642
Jun-09
6.938388155
Jul-09
6.708950227
Aug-09
6.472650002
Sep-09
6.231777673
Oct-09
6.321293039
Nov-09
6.380933931
Dec-09
6.420670529
Jan-10
6.447145605
Feb-10
6.464785004
Mar-10
6.476537505
Apr-10
6.484367777
May-10
6.489584808
Jun-10
Jul-10 6.479169616
6.468754424
Aug-10
6.458339232
Sep-10
6.44792404 6.484367777
Oct-10
6.437508848
Nov-10
6.427093656
Dec-10
6.416678465
Jan-11
6.406263273
Series 1
Feb-11
6.395848081
Mar-11
6.385432889
Apr-11
6.375017697

10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

Series 1

Forecast of Series 1

Fitted Values

Forecast -- Holt-Winters Selected

Date
May-2010
Jun-2010
Jul-2010
Aug-2010
Sep-2010
Oct-2010
Nov-2010
Dec-2010
Jan-2011
Feb-2011
Mar-2011
Apr-2011
Avg
Max
Min

Forecast
Quarterly

Monthly
6.49
6.48
6.47
6.46
6.45
6.44
6.43
6.42
6.41
6.40
6.39
6.38
6.43
6.49
6.38

Summary Comments
The forecast has an average error of
The data has a standard deviation of
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by

Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Annual

12.97

19.38

19.28

51.63

19.19
17.70
19.38
12.97

51.63
51.63
51.63

1.65%
0.72
94.95%

Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis

Series: Series 1
Date
Jan-2009
Feb-2009
Mar-2009
Apr-2009
May-2009
Jun-2009
Jul-2009
Aug-2009
Sep-2009
Oct-2009
Nov-2009
Dec-2009
Jan-2010
Feb-2010
Mar-2010
Apr-2010
Avg
Max
Min
StDev
Var
Median

Original
Data

Fitted
Data
8.75
8.25
7.75
7.50
7.25
7.00
6.75
6.50
6.50
6.50
6.50
6.50
6.50
6.50
6.50
6.50
6.98
8.75
6.50
0.72
0.52
6.50

Series
% Change

Error
8.38
8.50
7.92
7.36
7.16
6.94
6.71
6.47
6.23
6.32
6.38
6.42
6.45
6.46
6.48
6.48
6.92
8.50
6.23
0.74
0.55
6.48

0.37
-0.25
-0.17
0.14
0.09
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.27
0.18
0.12
0.08
0.05
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.07
0.37
-0.25
0.15
0.02
0.06

-5.71%
-6.06%
-3.23%
-3.33%
-3.45%
-3.57%
-3.70%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-1.94%
0.00%
-6.06%
2.28%
0.05%
0.00%

Forecast
% Change
1.49%
-6.87%
-7.02%
-2.77%
-3.06%
-3.31%
-3.52%
-3.72%
1.44%
0.94%
0.62%
0.41%
0.27%
0.18%
0.12%
-1.65%
1.49%
-7.02%
2.87%
0.08%
0.12%

Cumulative
Error
0.37
0.06
-0.01
0.02
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.37
-0.01
0.08
0.01
0.07

Cumulative
MAPE
4.28%
2.90%
2.17%
1.74%
1.45%
1.23%
1.07%
0.94%
0.89%
0.83%
0.77%
0.71%
0.66%
0.62%
0.58%
0.54%
1.33%
4.28%
0.54%
1.02%
0.01%
0.91%

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
R-Square
Adjusted R-Square
Method Statistics
Method Selected
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Decomposition Type
Seasonal Indices
Index 1
Index 2
Index 3
Index 4
ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Value
1.65%
94.95%
94.18%
Value
Holt-Winters
1.00
0.00
0.33
Multiplicative
Value
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

Forecast Statistics
Mean
Standard Deviation

Value
6.98
0.72

Item
Data Range Selected
Time scale for data
Periods to forecast
Seasonal Length
Replace Outliers Activated
Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeros
Remove Trailing Zeros
Use Holdback Evaluation
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected
Report Details
Run Date: 5/18/2010 6:26 PM
Author: John Galt Development, Inc.
Note: ForecastX

Value
[Book1]Sheet1!$A$1:$B$16
Monthly
12
No

No

Yes
No
No
No

Holt Winters