Theor Appl Climatol DOI 10.

1007/s00704-012-0764-1

ORIGINAL PAPER

Climate change and potato cropping in the Peruvian Altiplano

J. Sanabria & J. P. Lhomme

Received: 18 June 2012 / Accepted: 31 August 2012 # Springer-Verlag 2012

Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on potatoes cropping in the Peruvian highlands (Altiplano) is assessed using climate projections for 20712100, obtained from the HadRM3P regional atmospheric model of the Hadley Centre. The atmospheric model is run under two different special report on emission scenarios: high CO2 concentration (A2) and moderate CO2 concentration (B2) for four locations situated in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca. The two main varieties of potato cultivated in the area are studied: the Andean potato (Solanum tuberosum) and the bitter potato (Solanum juzepczukii ). A simple process-oriented model is used to quantify the climatic impacts on crops cycles and yields by combining the effects of temperature on phenology, of radiation and CO2 on maximum yield and of water balance on yield deficit. In future climates, air temperature systematically increases, precipitation tends to increase at the beginning of the rainy season and slightly decreases during the rest of the season. The direct effects of these climatic changes are earlier planting dates, less planting failures and shorter crop cycles in all the four locations and for both scenarios. Consequently, the harvesting dates occur systematically earlier: roughly in January for the Andean potato instead of March in the current situation and in February for the bitter potato instead of April. Overall, yield deficits will be higher under climate change than in the current climate. There will be a strong negative impact on yields for S. tuberosum (stronger under

A2 scenario than under B2); the impact on S. juzepczukii yields, however, appears to be relatively mixed and not so negative.

1 Introduction Recent studies in the Peruvian Andes on observed climatic trends (Vincent et al. 2005; Haylock et al. 2006) and on climate projections under different scenarios of CO2 emissions (Marengo et al. 2009; Sanabria et al. 2009) reveal changes in precipitation and temperature. Whereas the changes in precipitation are not coherent, increasing in some areas and decreasing in others, temperatures experience systematic increase reaching +6 C in projections under severe scenarios. Extreme events are also enhanced and more recurrent. In front of the climatic changes, the agricultural sector is one of the most at risk since the physiological processes of plant productivity are directly linked to climate inputs such as precipitation, temperature, solar radiation (Rs) or CO2 concentration of the air. The Peruvian Altiplano, which essentially depends upon the agricultural sector, has a high poverty index. Owing to its high altitude (around 4,000 m), it represents a very vulnerable area exposed to the climatic variability generated by EL NioENSO phenomenon (Rome-Gaspaldy and Ronchail 1998) and to risks of drought and radiative frost (Alarcn 1997). The main economic activity of the region is agriculture (crop growing and husbandry) and potato is the most important crop with a large diversity in species. It is grown under rainfed conditions and essentially used for auto-consumption. According to INEI (1994), potato cropping is present in around 92 % of the agricultural units and represents 31 % of the cultivated area in the department of Puno. However, due to severe adverse climatic conditions, it is the Peruvian department with the highest losses of potato crops (Mendoza 2009). In a study assessing the impact of future scenarios on potato

J. Sanabria SENAMHI (DGA), Casilla Postal 1308, Lima 11, Peru J. P. Lhomme (*) IRD (UMR LISAH), Montpellier SupAgro, 2 place Viala, 34060 Montpellier, France e-mail: jean-paul.lhomme@ird.fr

J. Sanabria, J.P. Lhomme

potential yield with the LINTUL simulation model (Stol et al. 1991; Van Keulen and Stol 1995), Hijmans (2003) showed that the potential yield in Peru could significantly decrease without adaptation. In the Peruvian highlands, approximately two thirds of potato cropping corresponds to the Andean potato (Solanum tuberosum) and one third to bitter potatoes (essentially Solanum juzepczukii) (Canahua and Aguilar 1992; Huanco 1992). The present study aims at assessing the potential impacts of climate change on these potato crops with a regional scope. It is based upon the meteorological data recorded in four weather stations in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca, which is the most cultivated area of the region. Climate change is represented by the outputs of the regional climate model HadRM3P of the Hadley Centre (UK), run under two different scenarios taken from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A relatively simple agro-meteorological modelling, with a minimum set of input parameters, is used to evaluate the main impacts.
Fig. 1 Map of the study area (Department of Puno in the Peruvian Altiplano) with the locations of the four stations considered in the study and the corresponding cells of the climate model

2 Materials and methods 2.1 Study area and crops The Peruvian Altiplano, which is mainly included into the department (administrative district) of Puno, is located in the south part of the Peruvian territory, between latitudes 13 17 S and longitudes 6871 W and at an altitude between 3,700 and 4,400 m above sea level (Fig. 1). Precipitation mainly occurs in summer from November to March with mean values between 500 and 900 mm. Absolute maximum temperatures vary between 14 and 18 C and absolute minimum temperature between 7 and 3 C. The main climatic characteristics of the area (precipitation, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and air temperature) are shown in Fig. 2 for the station of Puno located in the centre of the region. The study is based upon the data of four meteorological stations of the SENAMHI network (Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia), which are representative of the major cultivated areas: Azangaro (alt. 3,863 m), Puno (alt. 3,860 m), Ilave (alt. 3,880 m) and Yunguyo (alt. 3,860 m) (see Fig. 1). Potato planting occurs from October to November and depends on rainfall occurrence. The arrival of climatic conditions favourable to planting being much less predictable at high altitudes than at sea level (Earls 2009), this has a direct impact on the agricultural calendar, which may vary interannually up to 50 days or more. Bitter potato (S. juzepczukii), which tolerates temperatures as low as 7 C with a growing cycle around 200 days, is mostly grown in the high and cold areas, represented by the stations of Azangaro and Ilave. It is

essentially used for auto-consumption. Andean potato (S. tuberosum ssp. andigenum) has a shorter cycle of about 150 days and is also used for marketing. It is mainly cultivated in the milder areas close to Lake Titicaca, such as Puno and Yunguyo. 2.2 Weather data Thirty years (19611990) of daily records of meteorological data (precipitation, air temperature, relative humidity, sunshine

12 10 8 6 4 2 0

mm m

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Precipitation Reference evapotranspiration Meanair temperature

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Fig. 2 Mean monthly values of precipitation, reference evapotranspiration and air temperature for Puno (recorded data)

Climate change and potato cropping in the Peruvian Altiplano

hours and wind velocity) are used to carry out the study. Rs in the considered locations is estimated from sunshine duration (n) by means of Angstrom formula: Rs/Rs0=a+b n/N, with Rs0 the extra-terrestrial radiation and N0 the daylight hours. The empirical coefficients of the formula (a, b) were determined by Baigorria et al. (2004) for two locations in the study area (Chuquibambilla and Puno): they are extrapolated to the nearest locations. ET0, based on the Penman Monteith model, is calculated following FAO-56 methodology (Allen et al. 1998). Simulated data of precipitation, temperature, Rs, air humidity and wind velocity for the reference period (1961 1990) and for future climate (20712100) are obtained from the regional model HadRM3P of the Hadley Centre (UK) with a spatial resolution of 5050 km. HadRM3P was developed from the outputs of the general circulation model HadAM3P, as part of the PRECIS modelling system (Jones et al. 2004). The four weather stations retained in the analysis correspond to four different cells of the regional climate model (see Fig. 1). In very mountainous areas such as the Andes, a further increase in spatial resolution is generally recommended to properly represent local gradients, but the Peruvian Altiplano being rather flat (between 3,700 and 4,400 m), the 50 km resolution can be considered as acceptable. The regional model HadRM3P was chosen after a validation process undertaken by Sanabria et al. (2009) who compared several regional models on the same study area and concluded that it was the most accurate. The model was run under two future scenarios: (1) SRES A2, based upon a continuously increasing population up to 15.2 billion in 2100 with a CO2 concentration increasing up to 834 ppm in 2100 and (2) the more ecologically friendly SRES B2, which considers a population increasing at a slower rate (10.4 billion in 2100 with a maximum CO2 concentration of 601 ppm) (IPCC-TGCIA 1999). The delta (or anomalies) method, described in Deque (2007), is used to generate the daily weather data of the future scenario. The method assumes that climate variability is unchanged in the future scenario and consists in a simple shift of the observed frequency distribution by applying a constant correction to the observed data. Climate anomalies are calculated on a monthly basis: for temperature, they are defined as the differences () in inter-annual monthly means between the future scenario and the reference one. For the other parameters (precipitation, air humidity, Rs and wind speed), they are defined as their ratio (). Then, the monthly anomalies ( and ) calculated in this way are applied to the baseline (observed) daily values to generate the future scenario: Tf 0 Tr + T and Pf 0 Pr P, where Tf and Pf are the daily values of temperature and precipitation for future climate (subscript f), Tr and Pr those of the reference climate (subscript r).

2.3 Simulation of crop development and yield A process-oriented model accounting for crop development and yield was designed with an agro-meteorological perspective and a regional scope. It is a generic model aiming at capturing the major impacts of climate change on crops with a limited number of parameter. More complex models, such as the SUBSTOR-Potato model embedded within the DSSAT program (Griffin et al. 1993), necessitate many specific input parameters which are difficult to determine and could hamper the regional approach of the study. The model works on a five-step basis. First, the planting date is chosen from considerations on rainfall events at the beginning of the growing season. Second, crop development is inferred from temperature (growing degree day (GDD)). Third, maximum (potential) yield is determined from Rs and CO2 concentration. Fourth, crop water deficit is estimated from a simple soil water balance model driven by precipitation and ET0. Fifth, actual yield is obtained by using the FAO crop-water production functions. Frost risk is not taken into account in the modelling process, first because it is rather limited in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca (which are warmer than the rest of the Altiplano) and second, because temperature systematically increases in future climates, reducing frost occurrence. a. Planting date and crop development The crop is planted if a minimum amount of precipitation (P0 0 20 or 30 mm) has occurred during N0 (015) consecutive days. In the current situation, the planting date is limited to the traditional time of planting in the Altiplano, i.e. between day of the year DOY1 0 289 (16 October) and DOY2 0 335 (1 December) for S. tuberosum and between DOY1 0 264 (21 September) and DOY2 0 294 (21 October) for S. juzepczukii. Bitter potato is generally planted earlier than common Andean potato because of its longer crop cycle. For the future scenarios, the planting period is extended to account for the possible effects of climate change since the planting criterion can be fulfilled before or after the traditional limits. There is crop failure when the planting conditions are not met. The duration of a particular development stage is expressed in GDD (in degrees Celsius), calculated by subtracting a base temperature (Tb) from the daily average air temperature (Ta). Generally, an upper threshold temperature (Tt) is considered, defined as the temperature above which crop development no longer occurs, which leads to GDD 0 GDD Ta Tb GDD Tt Tb if if if T a < Tb Tb < Ta < Tt Ta > Tt 1

Four phenological stages are considered (initial stage of duration (D1), development stage (D2), mid-season stage

J. Sanabria, J.P. Lhomme

(D3) and late-season stage (D4)). Each one requires a fixed amount of GDD for its achievement (GDDk). The planting date being denoted by i0, four particular dates are thus defined, each one corresponding to the end of the corresponding stage: i1 0 i0 +D1, i2 0 i1 +D2, i3 0 i2 +D3, i4 0 i3 +D4. b. Maximum yield Maximum yield (Ym; under optimal water conditions) is made a function of cumulative Rs through a simple procedure derived from Monteiths (1977) model for dry matter production. In future climate, maximum yield may be altered in relation to a change in crop cycle length (it can be shorter due to higher temperatures) or a change in Rs. Under optimal water conditions, the daily increase in dry matter production (DDM) per unit area is made a function of incoming Rs and written in the form DDM m "b "a "c Rs 2

being denoted by b0, the CO2 effect can be formulated in the following way
"b i "b0 1 0:0028 minC 370; 180i4 i=i4 i1

The maximum yield of potato dry tuber is obtained by multiplying the total dry matter production (TDMm) by the harvest index (HI) with values taken from Condori et al. (2008) Ym i0 HI TDM m i0 6

c. Crop water deficit and actual yield Crop water deficits are inferred from a simple soil water balance model (Lhomme and Katerji 1991) described in Appendix A. It is based upon the same principles as the FAOCROPWAT model (Allen et al. 1998) and has already been used in climate change studies (Lhomme et al. 2009). It does not account, however, for the feedback action of crop water deficit on leaf area, development and hence on crop coefficients. The water balance model allows one to calculate crop water deficit on a daily basis as WD(i) 0 ETc(i) ET(i) and its cumulative value over a given period. ET represents the actual evapotranspiration and ETc the evapotranspiration under standard conditions (maximum evapotranspiration). Then, a normalised Water Stress Index (WSI) is defined over the entire growing season as , i4 i4 X X WSI i0 WDi ET c i
i0 i4 X i0

c is the climatic efficiency, i.e. the ratio of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) over Rs (assumed to be constant PAR/Rs0.48), a 0 PARa/PAR is the PAR absorption efficiency and b is the biological conversion efficiency, also called radiation use efficiency (RUE). Over the entire crop cycle, the maximum amount of total dry matter production (TDMm) per unit area is a function of the emergence date (i1) and reads TDM m i0 "c
i4 X i1

"a i"b iRs i

Absorption efficiency is expressed as a function of Leaf Area Index (LAI) on day i by "a i 1 exp0:5LAI i 4

ET i

, i4 X
i0

i0

ET c i

LAI is assumed to vary following the crop development stages in the same way as crop coefficients (see Appendix A). It starts from zero at D1, increases linearly up to a maximum value LAIx during D2, remains constant during D3 and then decreases linearly down to zero during D4. This formulation is relatively insensitive to the prescribed value of LAIx, as explained by Jamieson et al. (1998). Given that atmospheric CO2 is assumed to increase in future climates with a positive effect on photosynthesis, the biological conversion efficiency (b) is made a function of CO2 concentration (C) following the method used by Wolf and van Oijen (2002, 2003) for European potato. The positive effect is linear from 370 up to 550 ppm, above which no additional CO 2 effect occurs. The increase rate is 0.28 %/ppm at emergence and decreases to 0 at senescence. The RUE in the present conditions (C 0 370 ppm)

Its value varies between 0 (no stress) and 1 (total stress). The linear crop-water production functions developed by Doorenbos and Kassam (1979) are used to evaluate the effect of crop water deficit on yield. The relative yield, i.e. the ratio between actual crop yield (Ya) and Ym (the one obtained with unrestricted water supply) is determined as Ya i0 =Ym i0 1 Ky WSI i0 8

Ky is the yield response factor determined for numerous crops by Doorenbos and Kassam (1979, Table 24). This general approach has been developed and applied by the FAO to all sorts of crops and validated in many field studies (see for instance Raes et al. (2006)). d. Model parameters The agro-meteorological model developed above simulates crop yield from temperature, Rs, CO2 concentration and soil water deficit. Crop and soil parameters needed to run the model are detailed in Table 1 for

Climate change and potato cropping in the Peruvian Altiplano Table 1 Crop parameters used in the modelling process and their corresponding values Parameter Planting date Initial date of the potential planting period Final date of the potential planting period Required amount of precipitation Number of consecutive days Phenology and yield Thermal time for the initial stage Thermal time for the development stage Thermal time for the mid season stage Thermal time for the late-season stage Base temperature Maximum leaf area index Biological conversion efficiency Yield response factor Harvest index Water balance Minimum value of the total available water Maximum value of total available water Crop coefficient (initial stage) Crop coefficient (mid-season stage) Crop coefficient (end of the late-season stage) Symbol Solanum tuberosum Solanum juzepczukii

DOY1 DOY2 Po (mm) No (day) GDD1 (C) GDD2 (C) GDD3 (C) GDD4 (C) Tb (C) LAIx b0 (gMJ1) Ky HI (%) TAWn (mm) TAWx (mm) Kc1 Kc2 Kc3

289 259 335 335 30 15 230 510 200 350 2 4 2.9 1.1 67

(R) (F) (R) (F)

264 245 294 305 20 15 360 550 330 600 0 4 2.9 1.1 78

(R) (F) (R) (F)

10 50 (Y) 90 (P) 0.4 1.15 0.75

10 50 (A and I) 0.4 1.15 0.75

A Azangaro, P Puno, I Ilave, Y Yunguyo, R reference period, F future climate, DOY day of the year

the two species of Solanum retained in the analysis: S. juzepczukii and S. tuberosum, cv. Compis (which is the most representative cultivar of S. tuberosum in the Andean Altiplano). Base temperature, maximum leaf area index, biological conversion efficiency, harvest index, yield response factor and crop coefficients were obtained from Condori et al. (2008), Stol et al. (1991) and Allen et al. (1998) for these specific crops. The thermal times corresponding to the different phenological phases were calculated from observations (14 trials) made in the district of Puno within the SENAMHI agrometeorological network. Soils around Puno contain more clay and silt than those of the other locations. So, maximum total available water (TAWx) is taken as significantly higher (90 mm) for Puno, against 50 mm for the other sites. A value of 0.60 m is considered for the maximum rooting depth. The model was run with a CO2 concentration of 370 ppm for the reference period, 600 ppm for scenario B2 and 800 ppm for scenario A2 (prescribed values). In future climates, the harvesting index and the climatic efficiency are assumed to remain constant.

2.4 Comparison with field data The values of yield obtained by the model represent a kind of upper limit insofar as several hampering processes are not taken into account, such as the damage caused by pests and diseases, deficient fertility (mainly soil nitrogen content) or by frost. As these processes can substantially reduce the estimated yields, we compared the model outputs with yields measured in relatively good conditions. Sanchez de Lozada et al. (2006) reported values of yields for S. tuberosum grown in raised fields near Lake Titicaca of up to 44 t ha1 on a fresh weight basis. Assuming a tuber dry matter content of 30 % (Tourneux et al. 2003), this translates into a dry matter yield of 13.2 tha1, which compares well with the mean yield simulated by the model for S. tuberosum over the reference period: 13.22.8 tha1 in Puno and 12.83.7 t ha1 in Yunguyo. Concerning S. juzepczukii, Canahua (1998) mentions a mean yield of 17.0 tha1, inferred from experiments of seed production carried out in the district of Puno from 1993 to 1998 (four crop years). For Azangaro and Ilave, the mean yields simulated by the model over the reference period are respectively 18.21.7 and 20.55.0 t

J. Sanabria, J.P. Lhomme

ha1. These values are slightly higher than the measured ones, but they are explained by the tendency of the model to over-estimate yields under actual field conditions. According to Cahuana and Arcos (2002), the mean yield reported in the district of Puno is only 6.1 tha1, without significant differences between Andean and bitter potatoes, whereas Andean potato maximum yield can reach up to 30 tha1.

3 Results 3.1 Climatic projections In future climates of the studied area, as simulated by the HadRM3P model, mean monthly temperature will increase up to 4 C with scenario B2 and up to 5 C with the more severe scenario A2. The details of future climate are given in Table 2 and Fig. 3 for each station. Concerning precipitations, there is no marked differences between the projections B2 and A2: there will be a systematic diminution, except at the beginning of the rainy season (mainly September and October), when there will be a significant increase. Puno will experience the highest decrease in precipitation during the rainy season (from December to March). This behaviour is corroborated by a study by Thibeault et al. (2010) pointing out that precipitation tends to slightly increase in the Andean Altiplano, except in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca. Relative humidity tends to decrease systematically in both scenarios, mainly in relation with temperature rise. No significant change, however, occurs in wind velocity. Rs tends to slightly increase during the first months of the year and to decrease the rest of the year. ET0 systematically increases in the future scenarios: up to 23 % with B2 in Puno in June and up to 30 % with A2. We will see below how these changes in weather characteristics impact crops cycles and yields. 3.2 Impact of climate change on crop cycles Table 3 shows the percentage of planting failures in the current situation and in future climates according to the decision rule specified above (Table 1). The situation is clearly better in the future due to a net increase in precipitation at the beginning of the growing season (September and October). For S. juzepczukii, there is no planting failure in both scenarios, whereas in the current situation planting fails a little less than 2 years out of 10 (17 %). For S. tuberosum, planting failure does not occur with scenario B2 and only 1 year out of 10 with scenario A2 in Yunguyo, while it occurs 2 to 3 years out of 10 in the current situation. The statistics on crop cycle characteristics (planting date, physiological maturity and crop cycle duration) are shown in Table 4. In both scenarios, planting dates occur systematically

earlier owing to an early start of the rainy season, which allows enough soil water refilling: around 1520 days earlier with S. tuberosum and 510 days with S. juzepczukii. The direct consequence of the systematic increase in air temperature with both scenarios (A2 and B2) is a shortening of crop cycle length. The crop cycle of S. tuberosum is shortened by about 30 days in Puno and Yunguyo with scenario B2 and around 40 days with A2 (mean values). With S. juzepczukii in Azangaro and Ilave the mean reduction is about 40 days with B2 and up to 60 days with A2. As a consequence of that, physiological maturity occurs much earlier in future climates than in the current situation. For S. tuberosum, instead of midMarch currently, maturity occurs in January or at the beginning of February with B2, and with A2 it occurs as early as the end of December in Puno. For S. juzepczukii, it occurs in February with B2 instead of April in the current situation; with A2, it occurs as early as 22 January in Azangaro. 3.3 Yields under climatic change The comparison with the reference period is made by calculating the ratio Ra, Y (expressed in per cent) of the mean actual yield in future climate (with subscript f) over the mean actual yield  in the reference period (with subscript r): Ra;Y Ya;f Ya;r . A similar ratio denoted by Rm, Y is calculated for maximum yield, the means being calculated over the total number of available simulations. The corresponding impacts on maximum yields are shown in Table 5a for the different cases (crops and locations) retained in the analysis. Overall, the impacts of scenarios B2 or A2 are very weak for both species. Even, maximum yields tend to slightly increase with scenario B2. Table 6 shows for each station and each scenario the values of the WSI (Eq. (3)), which transforms maximum yields into actual yields through Eq. (8). For each station, except Azangaro, WSI increases in future climates B2 and A2, which means that water conditions become more severe. Puno has the greatest increase (from 0.19 in the reference period to 0.40 in A2). The actual yields simulated by the model are shown in Table 5b. In the current situation, the yields are around 13 tha1 for S. tuberosum and 1820 tha1 for S. juzepczukii. In future scenarios, yields vary differently. With scenario B2, yields are reduced for S. tuberosum, whereas they are increased for S. juzepczukii. With scenario A2, yields substantially decrease for S. tuberosum (more in Puno than in Yunguyo), but they are relatively unchanged for S. juzepczukii: a slight increase in Azangaro (farther from the lake), but a decrease in Ilave (closer to the lake). Due to the large inter-annual variability of precipitations, the corresponding standard deviations (calculated over 30 years) are relatively high (up to 21 % in Yunguyo). Apparently, the locations close to the lake are the most negatively impacted. Puno, which is characterised by an important decrease in

Climate change and potato cropping in the Peruvian Altiplano Table 2 Mean monthly anomalies of the future scenarios (B2 and A2) expressed as departure from the reference one

J Future scenario A2 Azangaro P (%) 3 T (C) 5 H (%) 6 U (%) 0 8 Rs (%) ET0 (%) 23 Puno P (%) 15 T (C) 5 H (%) 4 U (%) 0 Rs (%) 4 ET0 (%) 12 Ilave P (%) 5 T (C) 4 H (%) 7 U (%) 0 Rs (%) 6 ET0 (%) 19 Yunguyo P (%) 3 T (C) 5 H (%) 8 U (%) 0 Rs (%) 6 ET0 (%) 20 Future scenario B2 Azangaro P (%) 8 T (C) H (%) U (%) Rs (%) ET0 (%) Puno P (%) T (C) H (%) U (%) Rs (%) ET0 (%) Ilave P (%) T (C) H (%) U (%) 3 5 0 7 17 19 3 4 0 2 9 10 3 6 1

3 5 7 0 11 28 21 5 6 0 4 20 9 5 9 0 11 26 14 5 11 0 9 25

5 5 7 0 6 23 17 5 6 0 3 18 12 5 8 0 6 19 19 5 11 0 6 21

18 5 6 0 3 23 11 5 5 0 1 17 16 5 6 0 2 12 11 5 11 0 2 20

26 5 10 0 2 20 36 5 11 0 3 26 36 5 10 0 5 16 19 5 19 0 1 23

62 5 14 0 2 21 59 4 12 0 4 30 49 5 12 0 3 17 37 5 17 0 1 20

34 5 10 0 2 18 56 4 11 0 1 25 41 5 9 1 2 12 54 5 12 0 1 15

7 5 6 0 2 16 22 5 11 0 1 24 16 5 7 0 6 10 3 5 9 0 3 15

65 4 12 0 7 7 31 5 1 0 14 9 29 4 9 0 13 0 58 4 15 0 6 8

52 4 8 0 4 8 41 5 2 0 10 9 37 4 5 0 9 3 43 4 8 0 5 7

13 4 3 0 2 16 24 5 8 0 1 17 16 4 8 0 3 10 19 4 9 0 0 13

0 4 6 0 2 16 8 4 6 0 5 10 2 4 8 0 0 12 6 4 9 0 0 13

7 4 6 0 8 20 21 4 5 0 0 11 7 3 6 0

12 4 6 0 6 17 14 3 4 0 1 10 9 3 6 0

20 4 6 0 4 19 7 3 4 0 2 11 11 3 5 0

21 4 10 0 2 16 36 3 9 0 2 20 25 4 9 0

50 4 15 0 1 17 49 3 10 0 2 23 32 4 10 1

22 4 9 0 1 13 41 3 9 0 2 18 38 3 8 1

1 4 6 0 1 12 28 3 10 0 2 20 27 3 7 0

52 3 10 0 6 5 30 4 1 0 13 5 26 3 8 0

52 3 10 0 4 5 56 4 1 0 13 2 31 3 9 0

10 3 3 0 1 7 13 3 2 0 6 6 0 3 1 1

15 3 7 0 6 17 20 3 7 0 0 12 5 3 9 1

P precipitation, T mean air temperature, H air relative humidity, U wind speed, Rs solar radiation, ET0 reference evapotranspiration

J. Sanabria, J.P. Lhomme Table 2 (continued) J Rs (%) ET0 (%) Yunguyo P (%) T (C) H (%) U (%) Rs (%) ETo (%) 4 13 5 3 7 0 5 15 F 8 17 11 3 8 0 7 18 M 5 13 17 4 9 0 6 16 A 2 9 11 4 10 0 2 16 M 3 13 22 4 17 0 1 18 J 2 15 39 4 16 0 1 17 J 2 9 43 4 9 0 1 10 A 2 10 16 4 9 0 1 12 S 12 1 42 3 12 0 5 6 O 9 1 36 3 15 0 5 1 N 4 4 10 3 1 0 1 7 D 3 12 12 3 10 0 2 12

rainfall during the growing season in both scenarios (Table 2) and a high WSI (Table 6), is the one with the highest yield reduction.

4 Discussion 4.1 Climatic simulations Using the climatic data of 25 weather stations of the Puno district, Sanabria et al. (2009) compared the outputs of three regional models (HadRM3P, ETA CCS and RegCM3) over

the reference period (19611990) at the closest grid points. They showed that the HadRM3P model (PRECIS system) provided the best estimates of local climate. It simulates quite well the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation and the corresponding amplitudes, although it systematically underestimates the current temperatures on a monthly basis. The relatively flat relief of the studied area does not allow one to attribute this underestimation to differences in altitude between the weather stations and the corresponding grid points of the climate model. A study by Andrade and Blacutt (2010) for the Bolivian region also shows that the PRECIS model underestimates air temperature by a similar

a
16 12 8

Puno
mC

b Yunguyo
mm
m

200 160 120

16 12 8

mm

200 160 120 80

80 4 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

40 0

4 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

40 0

c Azangaro
16 12 8 80 4 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
C

d Ilave
mm
m

200 160 120

16 12 8

mm
m

200 160 120 80

40 0

4 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

40 0

Current temperature Future temperature (B2) Future temperature (A2)

Current precipitation Future precipitation (B2) Future precipitation (A2)

Fig. 3 Mean monthly values of average temperature and precipitation in the current and future scenarios (B2 and A2) for a Puno, b Yunguyo, c Azangaro and d Ilave

Climate change and potato cropping in the Peruvian Altiplano

20210 15212 14411 Future scenario B2

Azangaro

Planting failure Solanum tuberosum Current situation Future scenario B2 Future scenario A2 Solanum juzepczukii Current situation Future scenario B2 Future scenario A2

Puno (%)

Yunguyo (%)

Azangaro (%)

Ilave (%)

Ilave

Table 3 Percentages of years when the conditions required for planting are not fulfilled and planting fails

21 0 0

34 0 10 17 0 0 14 0 0

Crop cycle length (day)

Yunguyo

13815

10421

13320

10217

938

Puno

9921

The percentages are calculated with the whole sample of years

Table 4 Statistics on crop cycle characteristics (mean and standard deviation): planting date, crop cycle end (physiological maturity) and cycle length

In our modelling approach, once the planting date and the crop cycle length are established, the impact of climate change on maximum yields is the result of two main mechanisms: one linked to CO2 (which increases the biological efficiency) and another related to the absorption and conversion of Rs. Since the change in radiation is not very significant in itself (see Table 2), the radiation impact of future climates is mainly due to crop cycle shortening, which reduces the total absorption of Rs by the canopy and consequently may reduce the maximum yield. The direct impact of CO2 increase on yields is shown in Fig. 4, where the mean yields (maximum and actual) over the reference period (19611990) have been calculated for two locations (Azangaro and Puno) as a function of CO2 concentration. When CO2 increases from 370 (concentration of the reference period) to 550 ppm (upper threshold in the modelling process), mean yields of the reference period increase by 27 % for S. tuberosum in Puno and by 28 % for S. juzepczukii in Azangaro. This increase is fairly significant and explains

Planting date (DOY)

30919 (4 November) 27016 (26 September) 2648 (20 September)

Puno

30813 (3 November) 28623 (12 October) 28121 (7 October)

Yunguyo

Solanum juzepczukii

Solanum tuberosum

Future scenario A2

Current situation

Future scenario A2

Future scenario B2

Current situation

2717 (27 September) 25710 (13 September) 2557 (11 September)

4.2 Impact of climate change on yields

Azangaro

2698 (25 September) 25913 (15 September) 2569 (12 September)

magnitude in the high altitudes. Concerning precipitation, the biases are very variable. Sanabria et al. (2009) showed that the model systematically overestimates the recorded precipitation in some stations, whereas in other stations, monthly precipitation is underestimated for some months and slightly overestimated the rest of the year. In a study on the tropical Andes of Ecuador, Buytaert et al. (2010) note that the regional climate model PRECIS does indeed capture local gradients better than global models, but locally the model is prone to large discrepancies between observed and modelled precipitation. Indeed, the presence of high mountains, lakes and salt flats (salares) in the Altiplano generates local climates, which may significantly depart from the climatic conditions at regional scale (Aceituno 1998). Overall, future climate simulated by the model HadRM3P is in agreement with the projections obtained by Vuille et al. (2008) and Urrutia and Vuille (2009) for the Andean region.

Crop cycle end (DOY; physiological maturity)

Ilave

7621 (16 March) 517 (5 January) 3588 (23 December)

Puno

8016 (20 March) 2418 (24 February) 1320 (13 January)

Yunguyo

9311 (2 April) 3511 (4 February) 229 (22 January)

Azangaro

10512 (14 April) 4412 (13 February) 3210 (1 February)

Ilave

1889

1338

1429

Table 5 Impact of climate change on yields: (a) maximum yields (mean value and standard deviation for the reference period and future climates) and their corresponding ratios (Rm, Y) to the reference period and (b) actual yields (reference period and future climates) and their corresponding ratios (Ra, Y) to the reference period
Yunguyo
Y

Puno (%)
Y

Azangaro Rm, Y (%) Ya (tha1) Ra, (%) Rm, Y (%) Ym (tha1) Ya (tha1) Ra, Y (%)

Ilave Ym (tha1) Rm,

Y

Ym (tha1) Ra, Y (%)

Rm,

Ya (tha1)

Ym (tha1)

(%)

Ya (tha1)

Ra, Y (%)

(a) Maximum yield 100 102 96 25.21.2 26.81.0 25.00.9 100 106 99 15.81.0 98 28.32.3 29.22.3 26.61.2 100 103 94 17.11.2 106 16.14.8 100

Solanum tuberosum

Current situation

16.00.7

Future scenario B2

16.40.8

Future scenario A2

15.30.9

Solanum juzepczukii

Current situation

Future scenario B2

Future scenario A2

(b) Actual yield 13.22.8 9.82.8 8.52.6 64 10.03.1 74 11.53.4 90 78 18.21.7 19.83.0 18.93.9 100 109 104 20.55.0 20.64.6 17.74.3 100 101 86 100 12.83.7 100

S. tuberosum

Current situation

Future scenario B2

Future scenario A2

S. juzepczukii

Current situation

Future scenario B2

Future scenario A2

J. Sanabria, J.P. Lhomme

Climate change and potato cropping in the Peruvian Altiplano Table 6 Mean value of the water stress index WSI defined by Eq. (7) for each location and scenario WSI Solanum tuberosum Current situation Future scenario B2 Future scenario A2 Solanum juzepczukii Current situation Future scenario B2 Future scenario A2 Puno Yunguyo Azangaro Ilave

4.3 Policy recommendations Potato cropping represents one of the main sources of autoconsumption, trade and income for the population of the region of Puno. Even a slight diminution of yields under future climate will increase its vulnerability and its economic risks. Consequently, adaptation strategies to mitigate these climatic changes appear to be essential. Given that overall, the rainy season will be less favourable but with a better beginning, new varieties, more tolerant to water stress and with a shorter growing cycle, should be developed. Earlier varieties of S. tuberosum with high radiation absorption and conversion efficiencies, capable of using adequately the soil water available at the beginning of the rainy season, would be very beneficial. Breeding strategies in potato will be facilitated by the high biodiversity existing in the Andes. Given that the impact of climate change on yield is clearly negative for S. tuberosum (stronger under A2 conditions than under B2 conditions) and rather insignificant for S. juzepczukii, it could be more advantageous in the Altiplano to grow S. juzepczukii than the common potato. The implementation of this recommendation should be accompanied by policies aiming at stimulating the conservation and sustainable use of the genetic resources of Andean native potatoes. In parallel, the traditional practices of cultivation and processing should be strengthened. The higher temperatures foreseen in future climate should also allow alternative crops to be introduced or expanded, such as lima bean or oat. Looking for other cropping areas in the region, with less water shortage in future climate, could be another strategy. These actions should contribute to a better adaptation to climatic change and help solve the nutritional problems of the region. Through that, they will favour its social and economic development, integrating local mitigation strategies within national policies.

0.19 0.36 0.40

0.22 0.30 0.33 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.25 0.27 0.31

the results obtained for maximum yields in future climates: there is no significant change because the shorter crop cycle, which tends to reduce biomass accumulation, is offset by the increase in biomass due to higher CO2.
35 30 25 20 15 Solanum juzepczukii 10 5 0 370 Maximum yield Actual yield Azangaro

420

470 520 CO2 (ppm)

570

620

25 Puno 20 15 10 5 0 370

5 Conclusions and summary The potential impact of climate change on potato cropping (S. tuberosum and S. juzepczukii) in the Peruvian Altiplano was assessed for the 20712100 period using climate projections run under two IPCC future scenarios (B2 and A2). A simple agro-meteorological crop simulation model, with a minimum set of input parameters, was used and applied to four locations situated in the surroundings of Lake Titicaca. In future climates, air temperature systematically increases, whereas precipitation increases at the beginning of the rainy season and slightly decreases during the rest of the season. The direct effects of these changes in temperature and precipitation are earlier planting dates, less planting failures and shorter crop cycles in both scenarios and all locations. As a consequence, the harvesting dates will occur systematically

Solanum tuberosum Maximum yield Actual yield

420

470

520

570

620

CO2 (ppm)
Fig. 4 Impact of CO2 concentration on maximum and actual yields: mean values calculated over the reference period (19611990) as a function of CO2 concentration

J. Sanabria, J.P. Lhomme

earlier: roughly in January for S. tuberosum instead of March in the current situation and in February for S. juzepczukii instead of April. The impact on yield will be negative for S. tuberosum, but rather mixed for S. juzepczukii. Maybe, in the Peruvian Altiplano under climatic change, it could be more beneficial to grow S. juzepczukii than the common potato. This question, however, needs deeper study to be correctly answered.

taken to be equal to two thirds). When available water is greater than TAW-RAW, Kws is equal to 1; when it is lower, crop evapotranspiration is assumed to decrease in proportion to the amount of remaining water Kws 0 AW/ (TAW-RAW).

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Appendix A: water balance model A single soil layer is considered (bucket approach) characterized by a maximum capacity TAW (total available water) and a given amount of available water AW, determined with a daily step through a recurrent process. Deep percolation is calculated as the amount of water in excess with respect to the capacity of the reservoir (TAW-AW). TAW varies as a function of the rooting depth between a minimum value TAWn, when the crop is sown or planted, and a maximum value TAWx when roots have reached their maximum development (flowering initiation): a simple linear variation is used to represent this evolution. Between flowering and harvesting, TAW remains constant. Maximum and minimum values of soil total available water (TAWx and TAWn) were determined through the general equation TAW 0 (FCWP) Zr, where represents the soil water content (FC is at field capacity; WP is at wilting point) and Zr the depth of the rooting zone. Humidity thresholds (FC and WP) were calculated by the equation proposed by Rawls et al. (1982) from the textural characteristics of some soil samples taken in the area. The FAO single-crop coefficient approach is used to calculate crop evapotranspiration (ET). Two stages are considered in the calculation: 1. Under standard conditions (i.e. under adequate supply of water) crop evapotranspiration ETc is calculated by multiplying reference crop evapotranspiration ET0 by a crop coefficient Kc varying predominately with crop characteristics (ETc 0 Kc ET0). The crop coefficient curve is described from three values of Kc corresponding to three different stages: initial stage (Kc1), mid-season stage (Kc2) and end of the late season stage (Kc3) (Allen et al. 1998). Between each stage, Kc values are linearly interpolated. 2. Under limiting conditions of soil water, crop evapotranspiration is written as ET 0 Kws Kc ET0, where Kws is a coefficient describing the effect of water stress on crop transpiration. The FAO method (Allen et al. 1998, chapter 8) is used to determine Kws. It is based upon the concept of readily available water (RAW), defined as the fraction p [01] of TAW that the crop can extract without reducing its transpiration: RAW 0 p TAW (p was

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