Overview

New and emerging business concepts and technologies as they relate to ports Another global trade route ??? (if and when?) Managing the process of technological change Still one more that is not talked about that much ???????? So What?
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are based in part on the work done at Columbia Universitys Center for Energy and Marine Transportation and Public Policy and additional information gathered by the presenter from other sources. The views are those of the presenter only and do not necessarily represent the official views of other organizations or persons.
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Acknowledgments
Columbia Universitys Center for Energy and Marine Transportation and Public Policy (CEMTPP)

World Maritime University/Shanghai Maritime University

Private industry

Friends and professional colleagues

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Columbia University: CEMTPP

Ports and Intermodal Chains Technologies Alternative Trade Routes Globalization Environment International Governance
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Framed within the context of scenarios

Columbia University: CEMTPP

PORTS AND INTERMODAL CHAINS TECHNOLOGIES ALTERNATIVE TRADE ROUTES
Globalization Environment International Governance
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Framed within the context of scenarios

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Business Concepts and Technologies

Connectivity

Port Service

Continuity

Flexibility
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Ten Most Populous Countries: 2030

45%

Source: Global Marine Trends 2030, Lloyds Register Group, QinetiQ, and the University of Strathclyde, April 2013, page 15

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Growth in Urban Population Percentages: 2010 and 2030

Source: Global Marine Trends 2030, Lloyds Register Group, QinetiQ, and the University of Strathclyde, April 2013, page 19

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Top Sea Bilateral Trade

Source: Global Marine Trends 2030, Lloyds Register Group, QinetiQ, and the University of Strathclyde, April 2013, page 2

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Major Cities Real GDP in 2010 and 2030 (millions of $ in 2010)

Source: Global Marine Trends 2030, Lloyds Register Group, QinetiQ, and the University of Strathclyde, April 2013, page 32

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Regional Trade in Millions of TEUs Lifts

Source: Clarksons, 2009
600

500

400

Millions of TEUs

300

Proposed 22,000 TEU Containership

56% +

Asia
200

100

Europe
North America

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000
14

2004

2006

2008
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Muller/MIT/Future of Global Maritime Ports: A Different Perspective

Percentage of Containerizable Cargoes: 1980-2010

(2005-2010 is estimated)
Based on various sources and applied by G. Muller
1000 900 800 700 Millions of Tons (estimated) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

92% 78%
General Cargo

71% 55% 42% Containerizable Cargoes

23%

32%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

1980

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Total Fleet Size

Expected Growth: 1.8-3.0

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Source: Global Marine Trends 2030, Lloyds Register Group, QinetiQ, and the University of Strathclyde, April 2013, page 78

Expected Growth: 1.8-3.0

16

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Total Fleet Size

Expected Growth: 1.7-1.8

April 30, 2013

Source: Global Marine Trends 2030, Lloyds Register Group, QinetiQ, and the University of Strathclyde, April 2013, page 78

Expected Growth: 1.8-3.0

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Stages of Port Development

Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigque based on information adapted from Van Klink, A. (2003) The Kempen nexus in R. Loyen, E. Buyst and G. Devos (eds) Struggling for Leadership: Antwerp-Rotterdam Port Competition between 1870-2000, Heidelberg, New York: Physical: pp. 143-159.

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Stages of Port Development

Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigque based on information adapted from Van Klink, A. (2003) The Kempen nexus in R. Loyen, E. Buyst and G. Devos (eds) Struggling for Leadership: Antwerp-Rotterdam Port Competition between 1870-2000, Heidelberg , New York: Physical: pp. 143-159.

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Stages of Port Development

Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigque based on information adapted from Van Klink, A. (2003) The Kempen nexus in R. Loyen, E. Buyst and G. Devos (eds) Struggling for Leadership: Antwerp-Rotterdam Port Competition between 1870-2000, Heidelberg , New York: Physical: pp. 143-159.

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Hanseatic Hansa League

Organized trade Mutual support

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Transportation Coordinators

Connecting All the Players via IT

Carrier Payment

Claims Management

Monitoring

Carrier Management

IT Technology

Process Controls

Rail Carriers

Motor Carriers

Expedited Carriers

Misc. Vendors

Ocean Carriers

Railroads

Truckload Carriers

LTL Carriers

Surface

Public Warehouses

FCL (Full Container Load)

LCL (Less than Container Load)

Stacktrain Operators

Dray Van

Regular Routes

Air

Labor

Draymen

Refrigerated

Partial Co-loading

Leasing Companies

Flatbed Muller/MIT/Future of Global Maritime Ports: A Different Perspective

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Crossdock/T ransloaders

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Robert Smith, President/CEO, Twin Modal www.twinmodal.com

Another Example of Port Operations???

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Mercurius Scheepvaart: Will there be a future for them in the US?

http://www.mercurius-group.nl/index.php?section=vlootschouw&id=32

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Other Trends
Port facilities will need to consider facilities for: Alternative-fuel holding tanks (LNG fuel) Nuclear-powered vessels: special berths and terminals The concept behind Boeing 787 Dreamliner vs. Airbus 380: Could it or will it apply to maritime operations and ports? Provide different customer needs: origin, destination, and when Coastal shipping lanes vs. traditional rail and highway due to congestion/infrastructure demands: Think O-95, O-10, and O-5 Long-haul vs. short-haul trade routes Manufacturing and assembly moving closer to final customer
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Think:

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Climate Change and the Arctic

www.nasa.gov/images/content/626812main_MultiYr_seaIce_1980.jpg Muller/MIT/Future of Global Maritime Ports: A Different Perspective 28 April 30, 2013

Climate Change and the Arctic

www.nasa.gov/images/content/626813main_MultiYr_seaIce_2012.jpg Muller/MIT/Future of Global Maritime Ports: A Different Perspective 29 April 30, 2013

Muller/MIT/Future of Global Maritime Ports: A Different Perspective

Cold Jumps Arctic Fence, Stoking Winters Fury, New York Times, January 24, 2011, page 3A

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Cold Jumps Arctic Fence, Stoking Winters Fury, New York Times, January 24, 2011, page 3A

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Source: Global Marine Trends 2030, Lloyds Register Group, QinetiQ, and the University of Strathclyde, April 2013, page 47

Resources and Shipping Routes in the Arctic

Privatization: Ports and terminals Alliances: Ports and terminals Logistics centers: Single and multiple use Concentration of key players customers, not just carriers
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Need for more experienced logistics managers as part of the transportation-management process, especially on global scale

Improvement in IT and negotiating skills

Higher education/training and growing need for awareness

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Location, location, location (transportation corridors)

Networking, networking, networking

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Appreciate and understand regional differences in language and culture

International experience (or lack of there of)

Understanding fluctuations in foreign exchange rates

Management/people skillsespecially with different cultures

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Human Resources: Today

National identity and human resources mostly the same

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Human Resources: +10-20 Years

National identity and human resources are close to disappearing, with exceptions.

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Organization
Standard Organization
M R D I J H E F A C T I W M

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Organization
Standard Organization
M R D I J H E F A C T I W M D M R I J H S E F
42

Connecting the Dots

A C T I W M

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Reshape the Organization and Attitude

M R D I J H E F A C T I W M

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So What?!
Most of the port focus is on more visible and immediate issues: Globalization Environment Governance But, other areas are hidden behind the curtain:
Vessel technologies/seamless logistics chains (hardware and software)
Locally Internationally

Alternative routesArctic

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So What?!
Perhaps the biggest, and least understood are

Human Resources
Therefore,

It is not just the hardware, it is the

Management of the Process

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