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Chapter 1
Introduction
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1.1 Introduction
__________________________________________________________________ A tool to predict individual earthquakes is one of the Holy Grails of geophysics. nfortunately! identifying earthquake precursors at a useful level of significance has proved pro"le#atic. $his lack of clear cut precursors #ay "e due to either the ina"ility of current instru#entation to #easure relia"le earthquake precursors! or the e%tre#e sensitivity of the underlying non-linear physics to initial conditions! so #aking it i#possi"le for a relia"le precursor to e%ist (Brune, 1979; Kagan, 1994). &o#e possi"le precursors have "een identified! such as seis#ic quiescence "efore strong aftershocks! foreshocks! and the decrease in radon concentration "efore a large event (Wyss, 1991)! though these are not universally o"served. Another approach considers the fractal nature of earthquake populations. 'oth earthquake #agnitude and earthquake locations have "een sho(n to "e fractal )Chapter *+. ,f great interest is the clai# that the seis#ic b-value )the fractal di#ension of the distri"ution of earthquake si-es+ and the fractal di#ension of earthquake hypocentres! .! vary in a syste#atic (ay related to the earthquake process (e.g. Henderson et al., 1994). /revious authors have atte#pted to harness this to produce a tool to understand the seis#ic process! and several #odels have "een produced )&ections *.1.0! *.*.1 and *.1+. &ince it is not clear (hat processes are operating during the seis#ic cycle! the causes of changes in b and D are not clear! so casting dou"t on the validity of these #odels. In this thesis! the seis#ic processes in t(o areas in California (ere investigated "y calculating the te#poral variation of b and .. $he first! $he Geysers geother#al area! is a highly developed area of co##ercial geother#al stea# production
Chapter 1 - Introduction
)Chapter 1+. $he #a2ority of the seis#ic activity is due to either stea# production or the re-in2ection of condensate! (hich is done in an atte#pt to recharge the field (ith fluid follo(ing over-e%ploitation during the 1345s. $he second study area is 6ong 7alley caldera! California )Chapter 8+. .uring late 9ove#"er 133:! there (as a severe seis#ic crisis in the &outh ;oat area of the resurgent do#e )<igure 8.1+. $his intense seis#ic activity occurred in the sa#e area as previous activity associated (ith the reactivation of the vertical! (est-north-(est striking! "lind &outh ;oat fault. In these studies I have atte#pted to relate the fractal characteristics of earthquake processes to other o"servations! including industrial (ell activity and ground defor#ation. $his (ork contri"utes to understanding the reasons (hy b and D vary! and the li#itations of these para#eters in predicting seis#ic activity. =hether changes in b and D #ay so#e day co#prise a useful prediction tool is still unclear. 'efore such a tool can "eco#e a reality! further (ork ai#ed at understanding the #icro-scale processes that acco#pany elastic and inelastic defor#ation and ho( they affect #acro-scale processes is needed.
Chapter 1 - Introduction
Chapter 1 - Introduction
fro# $he Geysers )Chapter A+! the syste#atics of the &outh ;oat earthquake activity are e%a#ined. Ground defor#ation data fro# the sa#e period are also presented. In the final chapter! Chapter :! I su##arise and dra( conclusions fro# the results descri"ed in the previous chapters. $he "ehaviour o"served at $he Geysers and 6ong 7alley is used as the "asis for suggesting theoretical #odels. <inally! I #ake suggestions for future (ork. $he appendices contain listings of the co#puter progra#s I (rote to process the ra( seis#ogra# data )Appendices 1 to 0+! a su##ary of the (ell data that I asse#"led fro# diverse federal and private sources )Appendi% A+! the listing for the progra# I (rote to perfor# the b/D analysis )Appendi% 8+ and a su##ary ta"le of para#eters I used in the analyses )Appendi% :+.