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MATEMATIKA EKONOMI I
M. Ryan Sanjaya FEB UGM 23 September 2013

Probability
! Suppose that you are worried that you might have a rare

disease. You decide to get tested, and suppose that the testing methods for this disease are correct 99 percent of the time (in other words, if you have the disease, it shows that you do with 99 percent probability, and if you don't have the disease, it shows that you do not with 99 percent probability) ! Suppose this disease is actually quite rare, occurring randomly in the general population in only one of every 10,000 people. ! Question: If your test results come back positive, what are your chances that you actually have the disease?

Probability
Berapa besar kemungkinan seorang lulusan SMU di Jogja yang memiliki skor IELTS minimal 6 yang masuk ke UGM jika diketahui:
! 80% mahasiswa baru UGM memiliki skor IELTS minimal 6 ! 15% mahasiswa baru UGM berasal dari SMU di Jogja ! Hanya 10% lulusan SMU di Jogja yang punya skor IELTS minimal

Model:
Let n = # of triangles Let p = the perimeter of each figure

Table:
n p
1 2 3 4 5 6 3 4 5 6 7 8
Dependent

p perimeter

Graph:

Equation: p=n+2
Dependent

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Line is discrete
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

# of triangles

Model:

Let n = # of hexagons Let p = perimeter of figure

Table: Dependent
n p
1 2 3 4 5 6 6 10 14 18 22 26 perimeter

p
30 25 20 15 10 5

Graph:

Equation: p = 4n + 2
Dependent

Line is discrete
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

n # of hexagons

This chart shows the price of sliced fruit platters. Platter Weight Price
1 lb. 2 lb. 3 lb. 4 lb. 5 lb. $2.10 $3.60 $5.10 $6.60 $8.10
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

1) How much would a 6 lb. platter cost?

$8.10 + 1.50 = $ 9.60

2) Write an equation for the cost of a platter that weighs w lbs.

Let p = price of platter

3) How much would a 10 lb. p = 1.50 w +0.60 platter cost? p = 1.50 w + 0.60 Change Start p = 1.50 ( 10 ) + 0.60 Value p = 15.00 + 0.60 = $15.60

A taxi cab charges a flat rate of $2.50 and 15 c per mile. Write a linear equation for the charge in terms of the number of miles driven. Let C = charge in dollars Let m = # of miles driven C = 2.50 + 0.15 m Start Value Change

A phone company charges $17.50 per month and 12 c for each additional minute . Write a linear equation for the charge in terms of the number of minutes. Let C = charge in dollars Let m = # of minutes C = 17.50 + 0.12 m Start Value Change

A cars fuel tank is filled at a rate of 1.6 gal/min. The tank held 5 gallons of gas before refueling. Equation: Let m = # of minutes Let V = Volume of gas in tank V = 5 + 1.6m

Table:
m V 0 2 4 6 8 10 5 8.2 11.4 14.6 17.8 21

30 25 Volume20 of gas 15 in tank 10 5 0 2

Graph:

Line is continuous

# minutes

10 12

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Domain and Range

Assume that a function is being evaluated over specific limits such as from x1 to x2. This portion of the x-axis is called the domain. All values of the dependent variable y that are produced in the process are called the range. In casual usage, engineers and technologists tend to refer to both as ranges.

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Power and Polynomial Functions

yn = x

y0 = x = 1
0

y1 = x = x
1

y2 = x 3 y3 = x
2

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Straight-Line Equation

y = mx + b y2 ! y1 m= x2 ! x1
The quantity m is the slope of the line and b is the vertical intercept. For m>0, the slope is upward and for m<0, the slope is downward. The line crosses the vertical axis at a value b.

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Example: Write the equation and plot the line having a slope of 2 and a vertical intercept of -4.

y = 2x ! 4

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Example: Write the equation and plot the line passing through the points (3, 5) and (6, -7).

y2 ! y1 !7 ! 5 !12 m= = = = !4 x2 ! x1 6!3 3

y = !4 x + b 5 = !4(3) + b or b = 17

y = !4 x + 17

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Polynomial Functions
A polynomial function is one composed of a sum of power terms of the form of xn with integer values of n and constant factors. A typical polynomial function of degree N can be expressed in the following form:

y = p ( x) = AN x + AN !1 x
N N !1

+ .... + A1 x + A0
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Exponential Function to the Base e

y=e

The basic exponential function arises in a large number of scientific and engineering problems. The "purest" form of the exponential is as a power of the mathematical constant e ! 2.718 to four significant digits.

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Compound Interest
! A = Amount ! P = Principal ! r = annual interest rate in decimal form ! t = number of years

! r" A = P #1 + $ % n&

nt

Continuous Compounding
! A = Amount ! P = Principal ! r = rate in decimal form ! t = number of years

A = Pe

rt

Compound interest problem

! Find the accumulated amount in an account if $5,000

is deposited at 6% compounded quarterly for 10 years.

! .06 $ A = 5000 # 1 + & 4 % "

(4'10)

A = $9070.09

Logarithmic Function
The logarithmic function is the inverse of the exponential function. However, because it arises in many applications, it will be represented in the usual form with x as the independent variable and y as the dependent variable. The mathematical form is provided below and a curve is shown on the next slide.

y = ln x
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Properties of Logarithmic Function

! Domain: {x|x>0} ! Range: all real numbers ! x intercept: (1,0) ! No y intercept ! Approaches y axis as vertical asymptote

Logarithms to Other Bases

In general, the logarithm to a base a other than e is determined by the first equation below. The base 2 and the base 10 are also considered.

ln x log 2 x = = 1.4427 ln x ln 2
ln x ln x log10 x = = = 0.4343ln x ln10 2.3026
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ln x log a x = ln a

Logarithm Theorems
log b ( xy ) = log b x + log b y !x" log b $ % = log b x # log b y & y' r log b x = r ( log b x )
If log b x = log b y then x = y

log b x = y ! x = b

log b 1 = 0 ! 1 = b log b b = x
x
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0 1

log b b = 1 ! b = b