Outlook and Indicators

www.pmcg-i.com External Trade - 2013

Issue #19

Economic

M11.02.2014

In 2013 the negative external trade balance decreased (-9.1%, -500 mln. USD) compared to the corresponding indicator in 2012. In the mentioned period, the volume of export increased significantly (22.4%, 532 mln. USD), while the volume of import almost remained unchanged (0.4%, 32 mln. USD). In 2013, the external trade turnover with EU countries increased (3.5%, 97.8 mln. USD). It is notable, that export to EU countries increased (72.2%, 255 mln.USD), but the volume of import from EU countries decreased (-6.4%, -156 mln. USD). In 2013, the volume of the following exported products : copper ores (202%, 108 mln.USD), motor cars (20%, 116 mln.USD), nuts (99%, 83 mln.USD), wines (97%, 63 mln.USD) and mineral waters (80%, 47 mln.USD) increased considerably, while the volume of the following exported products: Ferro-alloy (-12%, -30mln.USD), Ferrous waste and scrap (-85%, -37 mln.USD) and mixed goods (-87%, 32 mln.USD) reduced. Turkey still remains the major trade partner for Georgia. Its contribution in total trade turnover is 14.2%.
Share of Export and Import in External Trade Turnover
100% 90% 80% 70% 60%
share

3500 3000 2500 2000

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 I II Export III IV 2012 I Import II III IV 2013 I II III IV

external trade turnover. mln. USD

In 2013, external trade turnover was 10.8 billion USD, which exceeds the corresponding indicator of 2012 (5.5%), as well as the indicator of 2011 (16.6%). In 2013, the share of export in external trade turnover increased (27%), and the share of import in external trade turnover decreased (73%) in comparison with the corresponding indicators in 2012 (23.3%, 76.7%).

76% 74%

78% 76% 76%

77% 77%

77%

74% 74%

73%

72%

1500 1000

24%

26%

22%

24%

24%

23%

23%

23%

26%

26%

27%

28%

500 0

External Trade Turnover (right axis)

In 2013, the volume of export as well as the volume of import increased (22.4%, 0.4%). In the mentioned period, real GDP also increased (3.1%).1
Share to GDP

The Share of Export, Import an External Trade Balance to GDP

60%

49.5% 48.7%

40%

In 2013, the share of export to GDP increased (18%), but the share of import to GDP decreased (48.7%), in comparison with the corresponding indicators of 2012 (15%, 49.5%). In 2013, external trade balance to GDP is -30.7%, while this indicator was -34.% in 2012.

20%

15.0%
0%

18.0%

-20%

-40%

-34.5% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-30.7% 2013

1. Forecast of GDP growth by GEOSTAT, based on the VAT payer enterprises turnover, fiscal and monetary indicators.
Quarterly dynamics of Export and Import , 20112013
Export Import 2,500

External Trade Turnover

Export

Import

2,000

1,500

1,000

In the fourth quarter of 2013, the volume of import, as well as the volume of export increased in comparison with the fourth quarter of 2012 (14%, 291 mln.USD; 46%, 282 mln.USD). This indicates the recovery process of economy.

500

0 2011 I II III IV 2012 I II III IV 2013 I II III IV *

mln. USD

Outlook and Indicators

www.pmcg-i.com External Trade - 2013
Share of the Top Trading Partners in Total Exports, 2013

Economic

Issue # 19

M11.02.2014
Share of Major Commodity Positions by Export, 2013

Other countries 24%

Azerbaijan 24%

Motor cars 24%

Other products 44%

Armenia 11% EU countries 21% Russia Turkey 7% 6% Ukraine 7%

Mineral Waters 4% Wines 4%

Ferro-alloys 8%

Nuts 6%

Copper ores 6% Fertilizers 4%

In 2013, top five trading partner countries by export were: Azerbaijan (24%), Armenia (11%), Ukraine (7%), Russia (7%) and Turkey (6%). The contribution of EU countries in total export is 21%, which is significantly higher (6.1 percentage point) compared to the corresponding indicators in 2012 (14.8%). In the mentioned period, the volume of export to EU countries increased dramatically (72.2%, 255 mln.USD). In 2013, five major exported commodities were: motor cars (24%), ferro-alloys (8%), nuts (6%), copper ores (4%), fertilizers (4%). Based on the fact that cars are not locally produced and are just re-exported through Georgia, Ferro-Alloys can be considered as the major exported commodity in 2013. In 2013, the volume of the following exported products increased considerably : copper ores (202%, 108 mln.USD), motor cars (20%, 116 mln. USD), nuts (99%, 83 mln.USD), wines (97%, 63 mln.USD) and mineral waters (80%, 47 mln.USD).
Share of the Top Trading Partners in Total Imports, 2013

Share of Major Commodity Positions by Import, 2013

Other countries 24%

Turkey 17% Azerbaijan 8%

Other products 61%

Petroleum 14%

Motor Cars 10%

EU countries 29% China 7%

Ukraine 8% Russia 7%

Gases 4% Medicaments 4% Wheat 3% Telephones 2% Copper ores 2%

In 2013, the top five trading partner countries by import were: Turkey (17%), China (8%), Azerbaijan (8%), Ukraine (8%), Russia (7%) and China (7%). The major commodities imported from Turkey were: medicaments (52 mln.USD), Structures and parts of structures of iron or steel (36 mln.USD) and sanitary and hygienic products (33 mln.USD). The major commodities imported from Azerbaijan were: petrol and petroleum (276 mln. USD) and gases (247 mln.USD). The major commodities imported from Ukraine were : cigarettes (74 mln.USD) and fittings (44 mln.USD). Five major imported commodities were: petroleum (14%), motor cars (10%), gases (4%), medicaments (4%) and wheat (3%). The contribution of imported product from EU countries in total import is 29%.

Basic Economic Indicators

Nominal GDP in current prices (mln USD)
Per capita GDP (USD) GDP real growth, percent Consumer Price Index (annual average) Foreign Direct Investment (USD) Unemployment Rate External Public Debt (mln USD) Poverty Level (registered)

III12
4129 918 7.50% 199 -

IV12
4332.2 963.2 3,0% 233.7

2012
15 846.8 3 523.4 6.2% 99.1 911.6 15% 4739 9.7%

I 13*
3487.6 777.8 2.4% 226.2

II 13*
3958.4 882.8 1.5% 232.4

III 13*
4120.3 918.9 1.4% 238.7

IV 13*

2013*

Contact Information

PMCG Research
6.9% 3.1%
99.5

Tamar Jugheli

E-mail: research@pmcg.ge

4976

E-mail: t.jugheli@pmcg.ge T: (+995) 2 921171 www.pmcg-i.com

Source:

National Statistics Office of Georgia, Ministry of Finance of Georgia, National Bank of Georgia

*projected

-2-