TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

February 13, 2014

DAILY

Destruction Meets Impulsive Construction.

Open 26239
Syed Rehan Ali rehan@fs.com.pk +92 (21) 3561 2290-94 Ext. 306

High 26708

Low 26239

Close 26677

Vol. (m) 284

RSI(14) 55.88

21ema 26546

55ema 25770

233ema 22602
28000 27500 27000 26500

Stocks OGDC Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. Pakistan State Oil National Bank Nishat Mills Engro Corp. Cherat Cement DG Khan Cement Engro Foods Maple Leaf Cement

Page 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

26000 25500 25000 24500 24000 23500 23000 22500 22000 21500 21000 20500

20000

19500

19000

18500

18000

17500

8 uly

15 22 29 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 August September October

28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 November December 2014 February

Corrections short-lived yesterdays construction was as swift as the destruction witnessed on Monday. Overcoming 26500 as immediate resistance and marginal close above the 21-day average, follow through closings above 27000 continue the trend for new highs that would target 29000. The last three bars have defined immediate risk below 26100.

Todays Strategy: Buy @26600 targeting 26843 26900, stop below 26500. SUP.1 26600 SUP.2 26541 SUP.3 26476 RES.1 26843 RES.2 27000 RES.3 27200

February 13, 2014

OGDC
Todays Strategy Buy Target: 276.00 278.00 Stop: 270.00.

Oil & Gas Dev. Co.

Though resistance around 275 remained in place yesterdays bar recovered lost grounds from Monday. Channel support line around 262 fell short and thus the trend remains in motion. Short-term congestion is still in place around 282/84 to hold above and build the trend towards 305. SUP.1 272.33 SUP.2 269.77

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 267.52 RES.1 276.67 RES.2 278.00 RES.3 279.23
300 295 290 285 280 275 270 265 260 255 250 245 240 235 230 225 220 215 210 205 200 195 190 185

6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 1 8 June July ay

15 22 29 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 August September October

28 4 1118 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 November December 2014 February

Open 268.40

High 274.90

Low 268.00

Close 274.10

Vol(m) 0.425

RSI(14) 46.60

21ema 275.35

55ema 274.09

233ema 246.57

PPL
Todays Strategy Buy Target: 222.30/70 Stop: 217.70.

Pakistan Pet. Ltd.

Broader market gains continue to keep support around 216 and the 55-day average on hold. Resistance around 221.50 comes in sight again and remains a test to sustain above for upside towards 230 - 234. SUP.1 219.43 SUP.2 217.80

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 216.10 RES.1 221.50 RES.2 222.70 RES.3 223.90
265 260 255 250 245 240 235 230 225 220 215 210 205 200 195

190

185

19

26

2 9 16 September

23

30 7 14 October

28

4 11 18 November

25

2 9 16 December

23 30 6 2014

13 20

27

3 10 17 February

24

Open 218.80

High 220.55

Low 217.70

Close 220.05

Vol(m) 1.15

RSI(14) 53.45

21ema 219.22

55ema 217.23

233ema 211.21

February 13, 2014

PSO
Todays Strategy Buy Target: 358.24 361.48 Stop: 346.00.

Pakistan State Oil

Overcoming the last four negative bars the averages (21 & 55) maintain their positive crossover keeping support around 331 in place. Upside towards 360 373 remains in place. SUP.1 348.50 SUP.2 345.87

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 343.00 RES.1 358.24 RES.2 361.48 RES.3 363.50
390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200

190
29 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 1 8 May June July 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 August September October 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 November December 2014 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 February

Open 338.75

High 353.74

Low 338.75

Close 352.99

Vol(m) 2.98

RSI(14) 61.97

21ema 341.49

55ema 332.13

233ema 299.09

NBP
Todays Strategy Buy Target: 59.32/50 Stop: 58.00.

National Bank
Levels still hold onto 57.40. Range from 57.40 59.50 continues to remain in place. We reiterate close below 57.40 triggers short-term risk. SUP.1 58.00 SUP.2 57.80

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 57.40 RES.1 58.85 RES.2 59.32 RES.3 59.50
63.5 62.5 62.0 61.5 61.0 60.5 60.0 59.5 59.0 58.5 58.0 57.5 57.0 56.5 56.0 55.5 55.0 54.5 54.0 53.5 53.0 52.5 52.0 51.5 51.0 50.5 50.0 49.5 49.0 48.5 48.0 47.5 47.0 46.5 46.0 45.5 45.0 44.5 44.0 43.5 43.0 42.5 42.0 41.5 41.0 40.5 40.0 39.5

24 1 8 July

15 22 29 5 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 28 4 11 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 August September October November December 2014 February

Open 58.15

High 58.90

Low 58.06

Close 58.48

Vol(m) 1.38

RSI(14) 54.81

21ema 58.16

55ema 57.09

233ema 52.20

February 13, 2014

NML
Todays Strategy Buy Target: 138.00 140.00 Stop: 134.00.

Nishat Mills Ltd.

Albeit marginal yesterdays bar traded above the 21-day average. Follow through gains would head to retest recent levels around 140.00 141.70. Outer levels are placed around 145 -147. Risk is on close below 132. SUP.1 135.00 SUP.2 134.00

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 132.20 RES.1 137.00 RES.2 138.50 RES.3 140.00
145 140 135 130 125 120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

19

26

2 9 16 September

23

30 7 October

14

28

4 11 18 November

25

2 9 December

16

23

30

6 2014

13

20

27

3 10 February

17

24

Open 134.95

High 136.99

Low 134.95

Close 136.06

Vol(m) 2.78

RSI(14) 55.61

21ema 134.81

55ema 127.09

233ema 103.00

ENGRO
Todays Strategy Buy Target: 186.00 189.74 Stop: 176.40.

Engro Corp.
Whipsaw on break below 172 yesterdays bar jumped on a gap from 176.40 177.30 to close above 182. Follow through closings above 186 build on the trend towards 216 238. SUP.1 181.20 SUP.2 179.25

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 176.40 RES.1 186.00 RES.2 189.74 RES.3 192.20
200 195 190 185 180 175 170 165 160 155 150 145 140

135

130

125

120

115

24

1 8 July

15

22

29 5 12 19 August

26

2 9 16 September

23

30 7 14 October

28

4 11 18 November

25

2 9 16 December

23 30 6 2014

13 20

27

3 10 17 February

24

Open 177.50

High 183.15

Low 177.30

Close 183.15

Vol(m) 8.88

RSI(14) 62.39

21ema 175.39

55ema 166.84

233ema 146.28

February 13, 2014

CHCC
Todays Strategy Buy Target: 84.25 85.68 Stop: 82.30.

Cherat Cement
Retesting 84.25 further the stocks further developments set in as close above this resistance sets in. Such a break would head towards 97 110. Recent support has been faced around 80. SUP.1 82.30 SUP.2 81.00

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 80.00 RES.1 83.65 RES.2 84.25 RES.3 85.68
90 85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

8 uly

15

22

29 5 12 19 August

26

2 9 16 September

23

30 7 14 October

28

4 11 18 November

25

2 9 16 December

23 30 6 2014

13 20

27

3 10 17 February

24

Open 82.75

High 84.98

Low 82.69

Close 83.27

Vol(m) 1.79

RSI(14) 77.54

21ema 75.68

55ema 67.72

233ema 57.88

DGKC
Todays Strategy Buy Target: 93.74 94.76 Stop: 91.00.

DG Khan Cement
Holding an inner support around 90 yesterdays bar made a marginal recovery on a volume note. Inner congestion range from 93.25 95.00 would be at test while close above 96.90 revives an upward recovery. SUP.1 92.18 SUP.2 91.50

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 90.51 RES.1 93.25 RES.2 93.74 RES.3 95.00
100 95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

29 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 1 8 May June July

15 22 29 5 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 28 4 11 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 August September October November December 2014 February

Open 91.70

High 93.47

Low 90.61

Close 92.45

Vol(m) 12.10

RSI(14) 52.77

21ema 92.43

55ema 87.80

233ema 77.09

February 13, 2014

EFOODS
Todays Strategy Buy Target: 102.65 104.10 Stop: 99.30.

Engro Foods
Broader market gains giving support follow through gains would look to close above 105 and overcome the clustering averages. Failure to do so would maintain downside towards 94.34. SUP.1 101.00 SUP.2 100.00

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 98.53 RES.1 102.65 RES.2 104.10 RES.3 105.00
170 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90

85

80

75

8 y

15 22 29 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 August September October

28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 November December 2014

13 20 27 3 10 17 24 February

Open 99.30

High 102.20

Low 99.30

Close 101.43

Vol(m) 2.15

RSI(14) 43.53

21ema 103.83

55ema 103.58

90ema 104.70

MLCF
Todays Strategy Buy Target: 28.80 29.00 Stop: 27.70.

Maple Leaf Cement

Support around the 55-day average has held well during the last three bars. A short-term consolidation has been from 27.73 30.00. The resistance is seen to be retested. Closing break above 30 builds upside towards 33 (Jul. 12 peak). SUP.1 27.73 SUP.2 27.15

Intra-day Levels
SUP.3 NA RES.1 28.41 RES.2 28.80 RES.3 29.40
35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16

15

14 0 17 24 1 8 July 15 22 29 5 12 19 August 26 2 9 16 September 23 30 7 14 October 28 4 11 18 November 25 2 9 16 December 23 30 6 2014 13 20 27 3 10 17 February 24

Open 27.78

High 28.35

Low 27.78

Close 28.16

Vol(m) 4.37

RSI(14) 48.56

21ema 28.42

55ema 27.42

233ema 23.19

February 13, 2014

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