Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
China
Crude Oil & Natural Gas: Building Blocks for the Industry
Butane Hydrogen BTX
o-XYLENE XYLENES TOLUENE PTA/DMT BENZENE PET m-XYLENE p-XYLENE PAN/DOP/Plasticizers PIA
Crude Oil
Refinery
Reformer
Reformate
BTX Extraction
Pygas Raffinate
ETHYLBENZENE/ STYRENE POLYETHYLENE POLYPROPYLENE ETHYLENE DICHLORIDE / PVC EO/EG ETHANOL EP RUBBER
Steam Cracker
Propylene
Ethylene
Butadiene
SBR / PBR
Methanol
13 11 9 7 5 3 1
Gas as a% of Crude, BTU Basis 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Crude (WTI) Natural Gas Gas as % of Crude
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ethane Propane Butane Naphtha Gas Oil
to ethylene & relative cost position to other feeds, ethane is consistently the most favored feed
Once oil & gas began to
diverge, producers have been shifting feedslates lighter to capitalize on the advantage
Alberta Ethane
Forecast
2012
2014
310
50
57
30 20
110 70
100 100
600 1769
*
Shale development has enabled the North American producer to become
one of the lowest cost producers in the world Combined with the Middle East, over 40% of the global ethylene capacity is now cost advantaged Other cracking capacity likely to trend towards increased LPG consumption in order to try and remain competitive Higher cost countries may respond with protectionist measures
12
Global demand growth for PE may be slowing as China demand weakens and Europe contends with recession
Longer Term: Two low cost regions (North America and the Middle East)
are set to compete for much of the global demand growth. The industry has never before included two major cost advantaged regions
Numerous capacity additions expected in North America as producers in the
region seek to leverage cost advantage driven by shale gas Continued demand strength anticipated for specialty polyethylene products
most of the margin is forecast to remain upstream with the ethylene molecule
13
Location
LaPorte, TX Morris, IL Sarnia Coatzacoalcos Joffre Point Comfort, TX Mont Belvieu, TX Gulf Coast Sweeny, TX Sarnia Gulf Coast Marcellus,
LLDPE
HDPE
Startup
Q1 2014 Q1 2014 Q1 2015
Type
Hypo (1) Hypo (1) Hypo (1) Hypo (1) (1) (1) Hypo (1) Hypo (1) Hypo Hypo
2016
Mexico Canada United States United States 250 300 650 550 500 350 500 500 750 Q1 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2016 650 Q3 2016 650 Q3 2017 500 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 500 Q3 2018 500 Q3 2019
2017
United States United States
2018-2019
Canada United States United States
Totals, 000's MT
1050
3300
3550
7900
Notes: (1): Announced projects included in our capacity database; (2): Announced expansions with IHS estimate of product and size, also not included in database; Hypo (1): reported projects not fully verified or approved and not included in the database; Hypo: IHS estimates of product and size for announced ethylene crackers - PE not in database.
16
PE Margin - Contract HDPE Blow Molding Non-Int. Including Discounts Ethylene Margin - Average Acquisition Ethylene Price Minus Ethane Cracking Costs
18
tight ethylene and high spot / contract ethylene prices, but later declined by 14.0 cents over May/June as supplies improved and ethylene prices collapsed. Prices rebounding with +5 in August achieved and +5 in October announced.
Integrated margins were recently at record levels = 28 cents
per pound in August versus year to date average of 28.75 cpp. Rest of year average margin is 25.5 cpp and 2013 average of 25.3 cpp. Margins forecast to move higher and peak in 2015/2016 prior to start up of new capacity.
19
anticipated to be added within the region during the next five years* Nearly 5.4 MMT of the referenced capacity is expected in the US An additional 6.5 MMT tons of new production capacity is expected to come on line in the 2017 2022 timeframe
While most of the new production capacity will be targeted into the export
market, the domestic price premium that has existed within the region is expected to erode as competition for the domestic demand increases
The first new major complex to start up in the region (Braskem / Idesa) will
Polypropylene Unit
Other propylene consumers: acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, acrylic acid, oxo-alcohols PG & CG Propylene Markets
Other Technologies
22
0.30 0.25 0.20 Heavier Feeds 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Ethane Propane Butane Light Naphtha Heavy Naphtha Gasoil
Cracker Feedstocks
24
Percent, % 25 20 15 10 5 0
Forecast
2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 10 A J O 11 A J O 12 A J O 13 A J O
26
de-hydro technology
27
2011 2016
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
PP/HDPE China
29
2015
2016
444 53
2346
-690
-392
31
2,425 2,205 1,984 1,764 1,543 1,323 1,102 882 661 North America Discounted North America Spot Export West Europe Discounted China Spot
32
propylene supply in second half of the decade will help and may even result in additional capacity investments
Arbitrage to be sustained for next few years (resin and finished goods)
34
Thank you!