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MARCH 2011
Thermal and Digestion Waste-to-Energy Technologies Worldwide has been prepared by SBI Energy. Our market intelligence reports are specifically designed to aid the actionoriented executive by providing a thorough presentation of essential data and concise analysis.
Vice President of Publishing Publisher Author Research Director Marketing Manager Assistant Editor Publication Date
Copyright 2011 SBI Energy
Don Montuori Shelley Carr Robert Eckard David Sprinkle Jenn Tekin Daniel Granderson March 2011
SB2847741
1-59814-386-7
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Figure 1-10: Plasma Gasifier Costs (USD) ............................................ 15 Pyrolysis ................................................................................................ 15 Figure 1-11: Pyrolysis Costs (USD) ....................................................... 16 Anaerobic Digestion............................................................................... 16 Figure 1-12: Anaerobic Digestion Costs, Animal Wastes/Wastewater (USD) ................................................................................................ 17 Figure 113: Anaerobic Digestion Costs, MSW (USD) .......................... 18 Industry Trends and WtE Financing ...................................................... 18 WtE Facilities Supply Chain ................................................................... 18 Figure 1-14: WtE Technologies, Facility Supply Chain .......................... 19 Figure 115: Municipal Solid Waste Supply Chain ................................ 20 Figure 1-16: Generalized Non-MSW Waste Feedstock Supply Chain ... 21 Waste to Energy Product Promotion..................................................... 21 Job Creation ............................................................................................ 21 Incineration ............................................................................................ 22 Figure 1-17: Projected Construction and Operation Period Job Creation Rates for Incineration; 2011 to 2021 (Annual Jobs Created) ............................................................................................ 22 Gasification ............................................................................................ 22 Figure 1-18: Projected Construction and Operation Period Job Creation Rates for Gasification; 2011 to 2021 (Annual Jobs Created) ............................................................................................ 23 Plasma Gasification ............................................................................... 23 Figure 1-19: Projected Construction and Operation Period Job Creation Rates for Plasma Gasification; 2011 to 2021 (Annual Jobs Created) .................................................................................... 24 Pyrolysis ................................................................................................ 24 Figure 1-20: Projected Construction and Operation Period Job Creation Rates for Pyrolysis; 2011 to 2021 (Annual Jobs Created)... 25 Anaerobic Digestion............................................................................... 25 Figure 1-21: Projected Construction and Operation Period Job Creation Rates for Anaerobic Digestion; 2011 to 2021 (Annual Jobs Created)....................................................................... 26 Waste to Energy End Users ................................................................... 26 Table 1-1: Thermal Technology End Users ........................................... 27 Table 1-2: Anaerobic Digester End Users............................................. 28 Summary.................................................................................................. 28 Figure 1-22: Global Market for WtE Technologies; Historic (2006-2010) and Projected (2011-2021) ($ Billions)......................... 29
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Potential Competition with Recycling ..................................................... 52 Potential Competition with Composting ................................................. 52 Increased Pollution under Some Systems ............................................. 52 Public Opinion........................................................................................ 53 Cost/Benefit ............................................................................................. 54 Summary.................................................................................................. 55
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WtE Technologies Markets .....................................................................81 Global Market for Incineration ................................................................81 Figure 3-4: Global Market for Incinerators and Incinerator Plant Ancillaries: 2006 2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions)..........................................................................................85 Table 3-5: Global Market for Incinerators and Incinerator Plant Ancillaries: 2006-2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions)..........................................................................................85 Figure 3-5: Regional WtE Markets for Incineration: 2006 (Historic), 2011 (Projected), and 2021 (Projected) ($ Millions) ...........................86 Table 3-6: Incinerator Market Data and Projections, Major Countries: 2006 (Historic), 2011 (Projected), and 2021 (Projected) ($ Millions) .......................................................................87 Table 3-7: Annual Historic and Projected Global Increases in Incinerator Waste Capacity (Daily Tons) and Power Generation Capacity (MW) ...................................................................................87 Global Market for Gasification ................................................................88 Figure 3-6: Global Market for Gasifiers and Gasifier Plant Ancillaries: 2006 2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions) ...............91 Table 3-8: Global Market for Gasifiers and Gasifier Plant Ancillaries: 2006-2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions)..................92 Figure 3-7: Regional WtE Markets for Gasification: 2006 (Historic), 2011 (Projected), and 2021 (Projected) ($ Millions) ...........................93 Table 3-9: Gasification Market Data and Projections, Major Countries: 2006 (Historic), 2011 (Projected), and 2021 (Projected) ($ Millions) .......................................................................94 Table 3-10: Annual Historic and Projected Global Increases in Gasifier Waste Capacity (Daily Tons) and Power Generation Capacity (MW) ...................................................................................94 Global Market for Plasma Gasification ...................................................95 Figure 3-8: Global Market for Plasma Gasifiers and Plant Ancillaries: 2006 2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions) ...............98 Table 3-11: Global Market for Plasma Gasifiers and Plant Ancillaries: 2006-2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions)..................99 Figure 3-9: Regional WtE Markets for Plasma Gasification: 2006 (Historic), 2011 (Projected), and 2021 (Projected) ($ Millions).........100 Table 3-12: Plasma Gasification Market Data and Projections, Major Countries: 2006 (Historic), 2011 (Projected), and 2021 (Projected) ($ Millions) .....................................................................101 Table 3-13: Annual Historic and Projected Global Increases in Plasma Gasifier Waste Capacity (Daily Tons) and Power Generation Capacity (MW)...............................................................101 Global Market for Pyrolysis...................................................................101 Figure 3-10: Global Market for Pyrolysis and Pyrolysis Plant Ancillaries: 2006 2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions)........................................................................................104
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Table 3-14: Global Market for Pyrolysis and Pyrolysis Plant Ancillaries: 2006-2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions) ....................................................................................... 105 Figure 3-11: Regional WtE Markets for Pyrolysis: 2006 (Historic), 2011 (Projected), and 2021 (Projected) ($ Millions) ........................ 106 Table 3-15: Pyrolysis Market Data and Projections, Major Countries: 2006 (Historic), 2011 (Projected), and 2021 (Projected) ($ Millions)..................................................... 107 Table 3-16: Annual Historic and Projected Global Increases in Pyrolysis Waste Capacity (Daily Tons) and Power Generation Capacity (MW)................................................................................. 107 Global Market for Anaerobic Digestion ................................................ 108 Figure 3-12: Global Market for Anaerobic Digesters and Anaerobic Digester Ancillaries: 2006 2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions) .............................................. 110 Table 3-17: Global Market for Anaerobic Digesters and Anaerobic Digesters Plant Ancillaries: 2006-2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions) ....................................................................... 111 Figure 3-13: Regional WtE Markets for Anaerobic Digesters: 2006 (Historic), 2011 (Projected), and 2021 (Projected) ($ Millions) ........ 112 Table 3-18: Anaerobic Digester Market Data and Projections, Major Countries: 2006 (Historic), 2011 (Projected), and 2021 (Projected) ($ Millions)..................................................................... 113 Table 3-19: Annual Historic and Projected Global Increases in Anaerobic Digesters Waste Capacity (Daily Tons) and Power Generation Capacity (MW) .............................................................. 113 Summary................................................................................................ 113 Figure 3-14: Global Market for WtE Technologies; Historic (2006-2010) and Projected (2011-2021) ($ Billions)........................ 114 Figure 3-15: Percentage of Global Market Shares for WtE Technologies; Historic (2006-2010) and Projected (2011-2021) ..... 115
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Figure 4-3: Gasification Costs (USD) ...................................................128 Table 4-2: Gasification Cost Profiles ....................................................128 Plasma Gasification..............................................................................128 Figure 4-4: Plasma Gasifier Costs (USD).............................................130 Table 4-3: Plasma Gasification, Typical Cost Profiles ..........................130 Pyrolysis ...............................................................................................130 Figure 4-5: Pyrolysis Costs (USD)........................................................132 Table 4-4: Pyrolysis, Typical Cost Profiles ...........................................132 Anaerobic Digestion/Fermentation/MBT...............................................132 Figure 4-6: United States Anaerobic Digester Facilities: Animal Husbandry Wastes...........................................................................134 Figure 4-7: US On-Farm Anaerobic Digester Costs .............................135 Table 4-5: Anaerobic Digestion, Typical Cost Profiles, Animal Wastes and Wastewater Treatment .................................................136 Figure 4-8: Anaerobic Digestion Costs, Animal Wastes and Wastewater Treatment (USD) ..........................................................136 Table 4-6: Anaerobic Digestion, Typical Cost Profiles, MSW ...............137 Figure 4-9: Anaerobic Digestion Costs, MSW (USD) ...........................137 Industry Trends......................................................................................138 Importance of Feedstock Availability ....................................................138 New Product Developments and Product Trends.................................140 Public Relations, Environmental, and Permitting Concerns..................140 Figure 4-10 Waste Management Hierarchy for WtE Projetcs ...............142 Waste to Energy Ownership .................................................................144 Public Ownership..................................................................................144 Private Ownership ................................................................................144 Project Development and Financing Trends .......................................145 Table 4-7: Common WtE Project Finance Mechanisms .......................145 Venture Capital and Equities ................................................................146 Grant Funding, Government Loans, and Other Government Incentives .........................................................................................147 Public/Government Funding .................................................................148 Project Revenues and Cash on Hand ..................................................149 Private Debt Financing .........................................................................150 Mixed Funding Sources........................................................................152 Summary ................................................................................................153
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Waste Feedstock Supply Chains ......................................................... 160 Figure 5-2: Municipal Solid Waste Supply Chain ................................. 161 Figure 5-3: Generalized Non-MSW Waste Feedstock Supply Chain... 162 Waste to Energy Product Promotion................................................... 163 Promotion to the End User................................................................... 163 Promotion to Government and the Public ............................................ 164 Summary................................................................................................ 166
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Figure 6-9: Projected Construction and Operation Period Job Creation Rates for Anaerobic Digestion; 2011 to 2021 (Annual Jobs Created) .....................................................................176 Figure 6-10: Total Cumulative Construction and Operation Period Job Creation Rates for Anaerobic Digestion; 2011 to 2021 (Cumulative Total Number of Jobs Created) ....................................177 Summary ................................................................................................177 Figure 6-11: Total Cumulative Construction and Operation Period Job Creation for all WtE Technologies; 2011 - 2021 (Cumulative Total Number of Jobs Created, Thousands) ................178
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Fisia Babcock Environment GmbH...................................................... 191 Overview.............................................................................................. 191 Performance ........................................................................................ 191 Figure 7-4: Fisia Babcock Environment, GmbH, Revenues, 2006-2010e ..................................................................................... 192 Product Portfolio .................................................................................. 192 Company News and Developments..................................................... 192 Florida Syngas LLC............................................................................... 193 Overview.............................................................................................. 193 Performance ........................................................................................ 193 Product Portfolio .................................................................................. 193 Company News and Developments..................................................... 194 Frontline BioEnergy, LLC ..................................................................... 195 Overview.............................................................................................. 195 Performance ........................................................................................ 195 Product Portfolio .................................................................................. 195 Company News and Developments..................................................... 196 Gershman, Brickner & Bratton, Inc. (GBB) ......................................... 197 Overview.............................................................................................. 197 Performance ........................................................................................ 197 Product Portfolio .................................................................................. 198 Company News and Developments..................................................... 198 Martin GmbH.......................................................................................... 199 Overview.............................................................................................. 199 Performance ........................................................................................ 199 Product Portfolio .................................................................................. 199 Company News and Developments..................................................... 200 Pyrogenesis Canada, Inc...................................................................... 201 Overview.............................................................................................. 201 Performance ........................................................................................ 201 Product Portfolio .................................................................................. 201 Company News and Developments..................................................... 202 QinetiQ ................................................................................................... 203 Overview.............................................................................................. 203 Performance ........................................................................................ 203 Figure 7-5: QinetiQ, Revenues, 2006-2010e ....................................... 204 Product Portfolio .................................................................................. 204 Company News and Developments..................................................... 204 Siemens AG ........................................................................................... 205 Overview.............................................................................................. 205 Performance ........................................................................................ 205 Figure 7-6: Siemens AG, Revenues, 2007-2010e ............................... 206 Product Portfolio .................................................................................. 206
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Company News and Developments .....................................................206 Takuma Co., Ltd. ....................................................................................207 Overview ..............................................................................................207 Performance.........................................................................................208 Figure 7-7: Takuma Co., Ltd., Revenues, 2006-2010e.........................208 Product Portfolio ...................................................................................208 Company News and Developments .....................................................208 UTS-Residual Processing LLC .............................................................209 Overview ..............................................................................................209 Performance.........................................................................................209 Product Portfolio ...................................................................................209 Company News and Developments .....................................................210 Veolia Environnement S.A. ...................................................................211 Overview ..............................................................................................211 Performance.........................................................................................211 Figure 7-8: Veolia Environnement S.A., Revenues, 2006-2010e .........212 Product Portfolio ...................................................................................212 Company News and Developments .....................................................212 Wheelabrator Technologies Inc............................................................213 Overview ..............................................................................................213 Performance.........................................................................................213 Figure 7-9: Wheelabrator Technologies, Inc., Revenues, 2006-2010e ......................................................................................214 Product Portfolio ...................................................................................214 Company News and Developments .....................................................215
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Chapter 1
Executive Summary
Scope
This report provides a review of existing global waste and waste management trends, discusses relevant waste to energy (WtE) feedstocks and technologies, and reviews the benefits and drawbacks of WtE. Valuations of WtE markets, broken down by technology, are provided, along with regional discussions and breakdowns for North America, Europe, and Asia. WtE product pricing is discussed, and typical price points are disclosed, for each of the WtE technologies considered in this report. Financing and industry trends are reviewed, as relevant to market potential, and supply chain characteristics for WtE technologies and feedstocks are evaluated. Waste to energy product promotion is also considered, and the anticipated effects of growth in the WtE industry on job creation is quantified. Relevant companies active in the WtE industry are reviewed. Finally, WtE end users are discussed, as relevant to thermal WtE technologies and anaerobic digestion.
United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2008. Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Recycling, and Disposal in the United States: Facts and Figures for 2008. Available at http://www.epa.gov/osw/nonhaz/municipal/pubs/msw2008rpt.pdf; Accessed on November 22, 2010. 2 Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, 2010. OECD Factbook 2010, Economic, Environmental, and Social Statistics. Available at http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecdfactbook-2010_factbook-2010-en Accessed on November 23, 2010.
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Figure 1-1 Annual Per Capita Municipal Waste Generated for OECD Countries (Metric Tonnes)
Source: OECD 2010. Note: the green bar represents the average annual per capita waste generated by OECD countries, each of which is represented by a blue bar.
According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), MSW, which is comprised of an array of paper and packaging products, textiles, yard trimmings, food wastes, wood, plastics, rubber, metals, glass, and various other materials, has an average energy content of 11.7 million British thermal units (MMBtu) per ton of MSW. Applying this figure on a global scale, at 2.1 billion tons of waste generated annually (before recycling), this is equivalent to approximately 24.5 quadrillion Btu, which is enough heat energy to generate about 10% of the electricity consumed annually around the globe.3 Waste to energy facilities function as one of several different options for the ultimate disposal or re-use of MSW as well as various other waste streams. In most areas, MSW is handled via a series of diversion, re-use, and disposal activities that may include recycling, landfilling, and composting. Depending on feedstock characteristics and local waste management practices, waste to energy technologies can be managed so as to compete with landfilling, recycling, and/or composting. From an environmental standpoint, waste to energy technologies that are used following the diversion of suitable wastes to recycling are typically the most beneficial. However, from a waste management standpoint, the extent to which
Calculated by SBI Energy. Calculation assumes electricity generation efficiency of 25%, and a global annual electricity consumption rate of 13.9 trillion kWh. This estimate includes energy from waste that is currently landfilled and recycled, but still provides a useful benchmark in terms of the total availability of solid waste, when considered as an energy resource.
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recyclable materials are removed prior to waste to energy conversion depends substantially on local or national waste handling standards, requirements, and common practices.
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Plasma gasification has been developed extensively in the manufacturing industry, where it has rapidly gained utility and application since the 1980s. Plasma gasification is achieved high current, high voltage electricity which is passed between two electrodes, along with pressurized gas. The gas is rapidly heated to 4,000 to 7,000 degrees centigrade, thereby reaching a plasma state, which also conducts electricity. When municipal waste or other feedstocks are introduced into the plasma stream, they are quickly gasified and syngas, similar to that described for standard gasifiers, is produced. The syngas is then subject to various additional processes and/or cleanup procedures. Pyrolysis processes are used widely in the petroleum and coal industries to generate coke,4 which is subsequently used for steelmaking and various other metal production and industrial processes, and also during petroleum refining for liquid fuels production. Essentially, pyrolysis can be described as a gasification process, except where gasification is performed with low levels of oxygen, pyrolysis is performed in the absence of oxygen. Pyrolysis is also an endothermic process, which means that it requires net heat input to drive the reaction. Pyrolysis reactions generally occur above about 800 degrees F, and, like gasification, result in the production of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, methane, and a suite of trace gases, many of which must be scrubbed out or cleaned up prior to the release of waste gas to the atmosphere, in processes similar to those described for previous technologies. Anaerobic digestion, also termed simply digestion, relies on microorganisms to transform wet feedstocks into usable fuels, such as methane gas or biogas. The anaerobic digestion process essentially harnesses bacteriological decay processes that occur naturally, and applies those processes within a controlled environment. Most feedstocks used for digestion are very wet liquid wastes such as sewage are perhaps the most common but other substances can be added too. These include greenwaste, organic fractions from MSW, food processing waste, biomass, and various other feedstocks. Some digesters are also designed to operate with only minimal water content; however, these dry digestion systems still require a substantial level of moisture to be maintained within the system during the digestion process.
Coal coke is derived from the destructive distillation of bituminous coal (heating in the absence of oxygen until volatiles are removed), and is used widely for the smelting of iron ore and other blast furnace type applications.
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Incineration Existing and projected global incinerator market trends are shown in Figure 1-2. As shown, during the 2006-2010 period of historic data, the global market for incinerators (including ancillaries) increased from $3.1 billion to $5.1 billion, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5%. During 2011 through 2021, continued growth in all regional markets, but especially in Asia, is expected to drive global markets from $5.6 billion to $13.8 billion, equivalent to a CAGR of 8.6%. The highest annual rates of increase are largely driven by the maturation of regulatory requirements in European markets, where mandated waste reduction targets reach maturation during 2010, 2013, and 2020. A general slowdown in growth is projected following 2020 for this reason. However, continued growth in the North American and Asian markets is expected to continue to drive incinerator markets through the end of these projections.
Figure 1-2 Global Market for Incinerators and Incinerator Plant Ancillaries: 2006 2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions)
Gasification Gasification markets during the 2006 through 2010 period included the installation of a single WtE gasification plant in Denmark in 2008. Various maintenance and upkeep requirements for existing WtE gasification plants from the 1980s and 1990s are also indicated for this period, and engineering, permitting, and early equipment orders for the Denmark plant and plant installations expected to commence in 2011 are also indicated for 2010. Market size
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during this period increased from essentially zero to $48 million, including technology installations and ancillaries (Figure 1-3).
Figure 1-3 Global Market for Gasifiers and Gasifier Plant Ancillaries: 2006 2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions)
The 2011 through 2014 gasification market is expected to show moderate volatility during 2011-2013, with a temporary loss in value during 2012, down to $516 million. This situation is due primarily to the timing of announced project cycles, where several project starts are anticipated for 2011 and 2013, and fewer for 2012. In Europe, gasifier installations through 2013 are largely driven by compliance requirements for European Union member countries, which require landfilling reduction or payment of fines. Following 2014, the projected WtE gasification market is expected to stabilize into a more consistent growth pattern, with a growth rates again increasing in support of Europes 2020 waste management deadlines. Overall, during the 2011 through 2021 period, the WtE gasification market is expected to increase from $620 million to $2.3 billion, equivalent to a CAGR of 12.8%. From 2011 through 2021, approximately 85-90% of the gasification market is expected to be in the MSW sector, while the remaining 10-15% of projected gasification installations will rely on other waste biomass sources.
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Plasma Gasification Plasma gasification markets during the 2006 through 2010 period are defined by the successful implementation of a MSW plant in Ottawa, Canada in 2009, as well as engineering, permitting, and early equipment orders in support of anticipated 2011 plasma gasifier installations. Markets during this period shifted from research and development to initial commercial installations. Market size during this period increased from essentially zero to $126 million, including technology installations and ancillaries. Projected markets for plasma gasification are expected to increase rapidly, especially through 2015 as technology suppliers expand into the Asian market. Overall, during the 2011 through 2021 period, the WtE gasification market is expected to show strong growth, increasing from $334 million to $3.5 billion (CAGR of 23.9%). From 2011 through 2021, approximately 8085% of the gasification market is expected to be in the MSW sector, while the remaining 1520% of projected gasification installations will rely on other waste biomass sources.
Figure 1-4 Global Market for Plasma Gasifiers and Plant Ancillaries: 2006 2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions)
Pyrolysis Figure 1-5 shows the global historic and estimated pyrolysis market for 2006 through 2021. The global pyrolysis market for the 2006 through 2010 period includes new project installations around the globe, notably within Canada, the UK, Eastern Europe, and Canada.
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As shown, the global economic turndown affected continued growth in global pyrolysis projects, resulting in project stalls especially in North American and European markets. As a result, net market contraction is indicated for 2009 and 2010. Overall, global markets during this period lost $40 to $50 million due to the economic turndown, resulting in a CAGR of 4.3%.
Figure 1-5 Global Market for Pyrolysis and Pyrolysis Plant Ancillaries: 2006 2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions)
Based on announced projects, near term future markets for WtE pyrolysis are expected to rebound rapidly in 2011, with marked additional growth in 2012 and 2013. Gains across global markets are anticipated, with the highest rates of increase indicated for Asia (India and to a lesser extent, China) and North America. European markets are expected to exceed 2006 levels by 2014. Longer term projections through 2021 indicate continued growth in the global pyrolysis market, with a slight increase in growth rate from 2018 through 2021, as the final phase of European waste management regulations take effect, and additional growth in the global demand for alternative fuels (including waste derived fuels) impacts the global pyrolysis market. Overall, during the 2011 through 2021 period, the WtE gasification market is expected to show strong growth, increasing from $355 million in 2011 to nearly $2.8 billion in 2021 (CAGR of 20.5%). From 2011 through 2021, approximately 45-65% of the gasification
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market is expected to be in the MSW sector, while the remaining 35-55% of projected gasification installations will rely on other waste biomass sources, including waste tires, wood wastes, and other biomass wastes. Anaerobic Digestion
Figure 1-6 Global Market for Anaerobic Digesters and Anaerobic Digester Ancillaries: 2006 2010 Historic and 2011-2021 Projected ($ Millions)
Figure 1-6 shows the global historic and estimated future anaerobic digester market for 2006 through 2021. The global market for the 2006 through 2010 period includes new project installations globally, with about half of total installations occurring in Asia, most of the remaining installations in Europe, and a handful of additional new installations in North America. Roughly two thirds of the anaerobic digester facilities installed during this time period were meant to treat on-farm wastes and other non-MSW wastes. MSW anaerobic digestion represented a little less than a third of all global WtE projects within the scope of this study. As shown, the global economic turndown had a noticeable effect on global WtE markets, and many large and small projects have been delayed due to lack of sufficient funding. Overall, from 2006 to 2011, the global anaerobic digester market for WtE increased from approximately $1.47 to 1.62 billion, equivalent to a CAGR of 3.25%.
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During and following the recovery period from the global economic turndown, global anaerobic digester markets are expected to show solid growth, for 2011 through 2021. This trend will be driven by continued growth in all markets, including, notably, proliferation of engineered mid- to large-size anaerobic digesters, which will be installed in China, India, and other developing Asian markets. Overall, the 2011 through 2021 market will increase from $1.62 to $4.74 billion, equivalent to a CAGR of 10.3%. Global Waste to Energy Market Summary
Figure 1-7 Global Market for WtE Technologies; Historic (2006-2010) and Projected (2011-2021) ($ Billions)
Figure 1-7 shows the total global market values for the five WtE technologies considered in this report. During the 2006 through 2010 historic period, the global WtE market increased from $4.8 to $7.1 billion, equivalent to a CAGR of 8.0%. During 2011 through 2021, projected global WtE markets will increase from $8.5 to $27.2 billion, equivalent to a CAGR of 11.2%. During the 2006 through 2010 historic period, approximately 95% of the global WtE market was accounted for by only two technologies: incineration and anaerobic digestion. However, pyrolysis, plasma gasification, and gasification are expected to gain relative market share starting in 2011, and together will comprise over 30% of the total WtE market by 2015. By 2021, incineration will still hold the largest global market share for WtE
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technologies, at approximately 51% of total market share, followed by anaerobic digestion including MSW and non-MSW feedstocks at approximately 17% of total market share, and followed in turn by plasma gasification (approximately 13%), pyrolysis (approximately 10%), and gasification (approximately 9%).
Other costs that are incurred during the procurement and construction process may include, depending on the region in which the project is constructed and the level of public interest/scrutiny in the project, environmental consultants, legal advisors, financial advisors, and various project management and other advisory consultants. Project level cost data gathered by SBI Energy indicate the following WtE technology valuations. Incineration Figure 1-8 summarizes incinerator capital costs. Bars in the figure represent average capital costs for the incinerator itself, as well as ancillaries, shown in $/kW5 and $/ton-year6 capacity. Error bars represent the minimum and maximum total (i.e., technology plus ancillary costs) values obtained during SBIs data collection efforts. As shown, the average incinerator cost for announced projects is $8,650/kW or $1,960/Ton-Yr, whereas peak reported costs for incinerators were $13,500/kW or $2,800/Ton-Yr. These figures are higher than the capital costs for the other thermal WtE technologies reviewed in this report. However, high cost does
5 6
Dollars per kilowatt hour. Dollars per ton of annual waste handling capacity.
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not necessarily translate directly into reduced competitiveness for incinerator technologies. Profitability for a WtE technology is based on a combination of revenues including power generation and tipping fees. Thus incinerator cost alone does not directly correspond to profitability or viability of a particular proposed project. Ancillary facilities, including pollution control, feedstock handling, building requirements, and other supporting features for incinerators can represent approximately 40% to 70% of total project cost.
Figure 1-8 Incinerator Costs (USD)
Source: SBI Energy. Bars show average costs; error bars show a typical range of total costs (WtE technology plus ancillary equipment) for this technology. $/kW = dollars per kilowatt nameplate capacity; $/Ton-Yr = dollars per ton of annual waste handling capacity.
Gasification Like incinerators, capital costs for gasification technology are less variable than the cost of ancillary facilities. Gasifiers for waste feedstocks have an average capital cost that is slightly lower than incinerators, at $1,650/kW, and ranging from about $1,300-$2,000/kW installed power production capacity, for the stand-alone gasifier technology. As shown, the average gasifier cost for announced projects is $4,979/kW or $399/Ton-Yr, whereas peak reported costs for gasifiers were $8,500/kW or $524/Ton-Yr (Figure 1-9). Note that cost estimate data on a Ton-Yr basis was only available for a limited sample of proposed gasification projects. Based on the characteristics of these two projects, and on the professional opinion of the analyst, these figures appear to understate gasifier costs on a per ton basis. However, more extensive data were not available. Ancillary facility costs can vary widely for gasifiers, and may represent approximately 15 to 75% of total installed cost, based largely on feedstock
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characteristics, design and regional design standards, and availability of supporting infrastructure.
Figure 1-9 Gasification Costs (USD)
Source: SBI Energy. Bars show average costs; error bars show a typical range of total costs (WtE technology plus ancillary equipment) for this technology.
Plasma Gasification Plasma gasifiers for WtE have an average capital cost that is slightly higher than standard gasifiers, at $2,180/kW, with costs for identified projects ranging from about $1,600 to $2,760/kW. Plasma gasifiers indicate greater capital cost variability than incinerators or standard gasifiers, in large part due to their recently emergent status. Over the next decade, plasma gasification capital costs will decrease in variability, as the technology continues to mature. Like other WtE technologies, capital costs for ancillary functions vary more than capital costs for the WtE technology. Figure 1-10 summarizes gasifier capital costs. Bars in the figure represent average capital costs for the plasma gasifier and ancillaries, shown in $/kW and $/ton-year capacity. Error bars represent the minimum and maximum total (i.e., technology plus ancillary costs) values obtained during SBIs data collection efforts. As shown, the average plasma gasifier cost for announced projects is $7,020/kW or $1,029/Ton-Yr. Ancillary functions range from about 40 to over 70% of total project capital cost. As for other WtE technologies, these capital costs are influenced according to the manufacturers and contractors selected, as well the region in which the plant is installed and other factors discussed in Chapter 4 of this report.
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Executive Summary
Source: SBI Energy. Bars show average costs; error bars show a typical range of total costs (WtE technology plus ancillary equipment) for this technology.
Pyrolysis Average capital cost for pyrolysis technology (without ancillaries) that was recently (within the last two years) constructed or currently proposed is approximately $1,950/kW. The highest identified price for pyrolysis technology is approximately $2,200, with a lowest identified cost of $1,700. This is somewhat more expensive than gasification, but less expensive than incineration or plasma gasification, on a per-kW of power produced basis. Like other WtE technologies, the level of variability included in this cost range is caused by several factors including differences in feedstock characteristics, manufacturer cost and pricing, and regional and temporal market conditions. As noted above, specialized markets and the availability of turnkey solutions can also influence pyrolysis technology costs. Figure 1-11 summarizes pyrolysis capital costs. Bars in the figure represent average capital costs for the pyrolysis technology only, as well as ancillaries, shown in $/kW and $/ton-year capacity. Error bars represent the minimum and maximum total (i.e., technology plus ancillary costs) values obtained during data collection. As shown, the average pyrolysis facility cost for announced projects was $5,680/kW or $326/Ton-Yr. Peak reported cost for pyrolysis facilities was $9,150 or $780/Ton-Yr, while minimum reported cost for pyrolysis facilities was $233/Ton-Yr. Like gasifiers, ancillary facility costs can vary widely for pyrolysis facilities, and may represent approximately 15 to 70% of total installed cost.
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March 2011
Executive Summary
Source: SBI Energy. Bars show average costs; error bars show a typical range of total costs (WtE technology plus ancillary equipment) for this technology.
Anaerobic Digestion Anaerobic digestion costs differ significantly based on feedstock. Figure 1-12 summarizes capital costs for anaerobic digesters using animal wastes and wastewater as feedstocks. Bars in the figures represent average capital costs for the digester technology only, as well as ancillaries, shown in $/kW and $/ton-yr capacity. Error bars represent the minimum and maximum total (i.e., technology plus ancillary costs) values obtained during data collection. As shown, the average anaerobic digester facility cost for announced and recently completed animal waste and wastewater facilities was $4,698/kW or $15.13/Ton-Yr. Note cost per tonyear figures are based on the total weight of feedstock that passes through an anaerobic digester facility. Because these facilities treat aqueous (waterborne) wastes, note that per tonyear costs are much lower than for other technologies. This is an artifact of the very high water content of these feedstocks, where water itself is very heavy and contains no energy production value.
March 2011
SBI Energy
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Executive Summary
Source: SBI Energy. Bars show average costs; error bars show a typical range of total costs (WtE technology plus ancillary equipment) for this technology.
Figure 1-13 summarizes capital costs for anaerobic digesters using MSW as feedstock. As shown, the average anaerobic digester facility cost for announced and recently completed MSW facilities was $5,788/kW or $657/Ton-Yr. Peak reported costs for announced and recently completed projects was $12,688/kW or $1,310/Ton-Yr, while minimum reported cost for these facilities was $4,634/kW or $330/Ton-Yr. These figures are higher than reported costs for animal waste and wastewater digesters, and are more closely aligned to the costs of thermal technologies. Higher costs for MSW digesters are caused by more stringent design requirements for MSW digesters, which usually require site specific engineering for the digester and its interface with other waste management facilities. Similarly, ancillary costs for MSW digesters are higher than for animal waste and wastewater digesters, and comprise about 25 to 35% of total MSW digester installed cost.
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SBI Energy
March 2011
Executive Summary
Source: SBI Energy. Bars show average costs; error bars show a typical range of total costs (WtE technology plus ancillary equipment) for this technology.
March 2011
SBI Energy
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Executive Summary