Lahore University of Management Sciences DISC 212 Introduction to Management Science

Spring Semester 2014

Instructor Room No. Office Hours Email Telephone TA TA Office Hours

M. Adeel Zaffar 4-03 TBD adeel.zaffar@lums.edu.pk X8026 TBD TBD

COURSE BASICS
Credit Hours Lecture(s)/Lab(s) Tutorial (per week) 3 Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week 2 TBD Duration Duration 75

COURSE DESCRIPTION
This is a core course for undergraduate business students. It is designed to provide students with a sound conceptual understanding of the role that management science plays in the decision making process. It is an important introductory course in developing decision models and understanding their application to management problems. The emphasis is on models and techniques that are widely used in all industries and functional areas, including operations, finance, accounting, and marketing.

COURSE PREREQUISITE(S)
Calculus I

COURSE OBJECTIVE(S)
The course has three primary objectives 1. Introduce students to the concept of model-driven decision-making in business 2. Introduce key techniques in three broad categories of decision-models typically discussed in the area of management science: descriptive, prescriptive and predictive models 3. Develop students ability to critically analyze a business problem, design and apply appropriate decision-support tools and interpret the results generated from the tools

LEARNING OUTCOMES
Upon completion of the course, students should a) Have a broad understanding of the area of management science b) Be familiar with basic modeling techniques across prescriptive, descriptive and predictive decision-models c) Be able to implement these techniques as part of a spreadsheet-based decision-support tool d) Be able to design and solve a range of optimization problems (in different areas of application) by correctly recognizing constraints, decision variables and objective(s) e) Be able to design and solve basic queuing models by correctly describing the defining features of the queuing system, including server(s), customer(s), length of the queue, arrival rate(s) and service rate(s) f) Be familiar with basic decision analysis techniques such as influence diagrams, payoff matrices and decision trees g) Be able to effectively communicate their problem-solving approach, selected tool(s), results, limitations and implications to support the decision maker

GRADING BREAKUP AND POLICY

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Quiz(s): 10% Six announced quizzes will be given in class/lab. The dates have been indicated in the schedule at the end. The quiz with the lowest score will be dropped. Make-up quizzes will not be given. The nature and level of difficulty of quizzes across the various sections may vary. Mid-Term: 35% Mid-term exam will be given in lab on a Saturday. The date has been indicated in the schedule. Make-up exam will not be given. Group Project: 20% This is a semester-long project. Each group will have 4-5 members. The project will have to be drawn from a real life situation. A 1-2 page project proposal must be submitted by Friday, February 28, 2014 (11:55pm). Group presentations will th be made on Saturday April 26 . Excel files and accompanying analysis must be emailed by Friday, April 25, 2014 (11:55pm). Grade on the project will be awarded on the basis of your presentation and accompanying analysis. Final Examination: 35% Final exam will also be given in lab during regular exam week

EXAMINATION DETAIL
Yes/No: Yes Combine/Separate: Combined Duration: 75 minutes Preferred Date: TBD Exam Specifications: Closed book, closed notes (most probably in lab) Yes/No: Yes Combine/Separate: Combined Duration: 3 hours Exam Specifications: Comprehensive, open book, open notes

Mid-Term

Final Exam

COURSE SCHEDULE Date 1 Lecture

01/13 01/16 01/15 01/21 01/20 01/23 01/22 01/28 1 2

Topics
Course Introduction Introduction to Modeling

Recommended Readings
Syllabus Chapter 1

Session Objectives
Introduce students to the area of management science and the MGS major. Familiarize students with different categories of modeling techniques and highlight respective applications, strengths and weaknesses. Introduce the idea of Good Decisions vs. Good Outcomes Introduce students to the concept and essential characteristics of mathematical optimization and illustrate the application of Linear Programming as an example Demonstrate the basic framework for designing and solving a 2-variable LP

Introduction to Optimization & Linear Programming (LP) Solving Linear Programming problems

Chapter 2

Chapter 2

First date is for sessions on Monday/Wednesday. Second date is for sessions on Tuesday/Thursday

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01/27 01/30 5 Modeling and Solving LPs in a spreadsheet QUIZ 1 Modeling and Solving LPs in a spreadsheet Modeling and Solving LPs in a spreadsheet Sensitivity Analysis Chapter 3

Demonstrate the use of spreadsheets to setup and solve a multi-variable LP Demonstrate the use of LP in solving a range of different problems including: make vs. buy decisions, investment problems, transportation problems, blending problems, production and inventory planning and multi-period cash flow

01/29 02/04 02/03 02/06 02/10 02/11 02/12 02/13 02/17 02/18 02/19 02/20 02/24 02/25 02/26 02/27

Chapter 3

7 8 9

Chapter 3 Chapter 4

10 11 12 13 14

Provide students with a basic understanding of the purpose and application of sensitivity analysis Demonstrate the benefits and limitations of sensitivity Sensitivity Analysis Chapter 4 analysis th DROP ONLY DEADLINE Sunday 16 February 2014 The Simplex Method Provide a glimpse into the mechanics of the LP solution Chapter 4 QUIZ 2 discovery process Introduce the concept of analyzing a class of business Introduction to Network Modeling Chapter 5 problems as network models Demonstrate the use of network modeling in solving a range of problems including, transshipment, equipment Introduction to Network Modeling Chapter 5 replacement, transportation and generalized network QUIZ 3 flow problems Introduction to Network Modeling
rd th

Chapter 5

Wednesday (3 )/Thursday (4 ) CLASS CANCELED for Mid-term on Saturday 1st March 2014 Chapters 1-5
Regression Analysis Chapter 9 Introduce the basics of predictive models SEMESTER BREAK (March 10-14) Demonstrate the application of linear regression models and discuss the interpretation of key numbers Chapter 9 such as R-square, betas and the concept of statistical significance Demonstrate the application of discriminant analysis Chapter 10 for a range of business problems and discuss the interpretation of disriminant scores Chapter 10 Chapter 13 Chapter 13 Chapter 13 Chapter 12 Chapter 12 Introduce the basic elements of a queuing model including servers, customers, queue lengths etc. Demonstrate the application of basic queuing models Demonstrate the application of basic queuing models Introduce the basic concepts of simulation such as random variables, risk, sampling etc. Demonstrate the application of simulation

03/05 03/06 03/17 03/18 03/19 03/20 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27 03/31 04/01 04/02 04/03 04/07 04/08 04/09 04/10

15

16

Regression Analysis Discriminant Analysis Discriminant Analysis Discriminant Analysis QUIZ 4 Introduction to Queuing Theory Introduction to Queuing Theory Introduction to Queuing Theory Introduction to Simulation QUIZ 5 Introduction to Simulation

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

04/14 04/15 04/16 04/17 04/21 04/22

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24 25 26 27 & 28 Decision Analysis Decision Analysis Chapter 15 Chapter 15

Decision Analysis Chapter 15 QUIZ 6 th Project Presentations: Saturday April 26 Students must effectively communication their problem-solving approach, selected tool(s), results, limitations and implications to support the decision maker rd th th th No classes on 23 /24 and 28 /29

Introduce decision analysis techniques and revisit the idea of Good Decisions vs. Good Outcomes Demonstrate the application of basic probabilistic and non-probabilistic decision analysis techniques Demonstrate the application of basic probabilistic and non-probabilistic decision analysis techniques

Final Exam Chapters 9, 10, 12, 13 and 15

Textbook(s)/Supplementary Readings
Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis by Cliff T. Ragsdale, 5th edition Any supplemental material and/or handouts will be made available via Zambeel