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Characteristic of a Project
A project has to posses specific characteristics for these techniques to be most applicable. These characteristics are as follows: i. When a job is started, it has to continue without any interference until its full completion. ii. Jobs or tasks are defined such that their completion will result in the end of the project.
Characteristic of a Project
iii. Jobs or tasks are ordered in a specified
sequence in which they follow each other. iv.Jobs or tasks are independent. In other words, within a defined sequence they can be performed, started and stopped independently.
PERT - CPM
Both these methods roughly involve the following steps: i. Decomposing a project into individual job or tasks. ii. Arranging the individual jobs or task into a logical network. iii. Estimating the time duration of each individual job or task. iv. Developing a schedule. v. Finding out those critical jobs or tasks which control the completion of the project. vi. Redistributing resources or funds so that the schedule is improved.
STEP 5 Determine each activity time variance STEP 6 Find out the critical path of the network under study. Step 7 Calculate project completion probability on the specified time (date).
STEP 3
The PERT Network requires three estimates for the duration time each activity. There estimates may be judgments of three individual persons. Three estimates are the following: i. The optimistic time ii. The pessimistic time iii. The most likely time BACK
STEP 4
An activity or a job expected time duration
(i.e. expected time to complete an activity or task)is given by:
Where: Te is the expected duration of an activity. To is the optimistic duration of an activity. Tp is the pessimistic duration of an activity. Tm is the most likely duration of an activity.
STEP 4: EXAMPLE
An activity optimistic and pessimistic duration time estimates are 50 days and 80 days, respectively. In addition, the most likely duration time estimate for the activity is 60 days. Find the expected duration time.
STEP 4: EXAMPLE
Activity duration time estimates are as follows: To = 24 days Tp = 30 days Tm = 24 days Solving:
BACK
STEP 5
This step is concerned with calculating
the variance of each activity duration time. The following formula is used to determine the variance:
STEP 5: EXAMPLE
An activity optimistic and pessimistic duration time estimates are 50 days and 80 days, respectively. In addition, the most likely duration time estimate for the activity is 60 days. Find the variance of the activity.
STEP 5: EXAMPLE
Given: To Tp Solving: = = 50 days 80 days
BACK
STEP 6
The critical path of the network is given by the longest path of the network. The duration time of the project is given by the total sum of the activity expected duration times of the longest path. The term critical is used to signify that if any delay in the completion of activities along the longest path occurs then the whole project will be delayed. BACK
STEP 7
This is concerned with calculating the project completion probability on the specified time (date). The following transformation formula is used:
Where: S is the total sum of variances of the activity time along critical path tec is the last network activity's earliest expected completion time. Td is the due date for the completion of the project
Probability 0.00003 0.00023 0.00135 0.006 0.02 0.07 0.16 0.31 0.5 0.69 0.84 0.93 0.98 0.99 0.999 0.9998 0.9999
STEP 7: EXAMPLE
The PERT network of a project contains nine activities. After the analysis it is found that the last network activity's earliest expected completion time is 44 days. In addition, the total sum of the variances of the activity duration times along critical path is 16. the due date for the completion of the project is 52 days. Calculate the probability that the project will be accomplished on due date or specified time.
STEP 7: EXAMPLE
Given: Td s tec Solving: = = = 52 days 16 days 44 days
Symbols and Definitions Used to Construct and Solve a CPM or a PERT Network
CIRCLE It is used to represent an event. Broadly speaking the circle represents an unambiguous point in time in the projects life.
Symbols and Definitions Used to Construct and Solve a CPM or a PERT Network
CIRCLE with DIVISIONS It also represents an event. However, this circle is divided into three portions. The top portion is used to label the event with a number. The bottom portion is divided into two halves. The left is used for the latest event time whereas the remaining portion is used for the earliest event time. Event Number
Latest Earliest event event time time
Symbols and Definitions Used to Construct and Solve a CPM or a PERT Network Earliest Event Time This is the earliest time in which an event can be reached; in other word the earliest time in which an activity can be completed. Latest Event Time This is the latest time in which an event can be reached without delaying the completion of the project.
Symbols and Definitions Used to Construct and Solve a CPM or a PERT Network
CONTINUOUS ARROW This represent an activity. An activity always begins from a circle and ends at a circle. In addition, to accomplish an activity it requires time, man power and money.
Symbols and Definitions Used to Construct and Solve a CPM or a PERT Network
DOTTED ARROW This represent a dummy activity. It is an imaginary activity and does not consume any money, man power or time. More clearly, it is accomplished in zero time.
Example 1
Explain the dummy activity with the aid of a CPM network diagram.
F D E C B A
Example 2
A small construction project was broken down into eight activities as shown in the table below. Construct the CPM network for the project and determine its critical path.
Activity Activity Designation Immediate predecessor activity Expected duration time for each activity
A B C D E F G H
10 15 5 20 25 10 5 30
Essential Formulas and Procedure for Determining the Critical Path of a Network
Essential Formulas
Event j
t1 (j) t2 (j)
Event k Y (j,k)
t1 (k) t2 (k)
Where: t1(j) is the latest event time of the event j. t2(j) is the earliest event time of the event j. t1(k) is the latest event time of the event k. t2(k) is the earliest event time of the event k. Y (j,k) is the expected completion time of the activity between event j and k.
Essential Formulas
FORMULA A: Latest start time = t1(k) y (j,k) FORMULA B: Latest finish time = t1(k) FORMULA C: Earliest finish time = t2(j) + y (j,k) FORMULA D: Earliest start time = t2(j) FORMULA E: Total Float = t1(k) t2(j) y(j,k)
EXAMPLE:
4
Determine the critical path by calculating each events earliest and latest times.
20 25 5 10 5 30 6
10 1 15 5 2 3
EXAMPLE:
A small research and development project is composed of six activities. These activities along with their estimated times are identified in the Table. Construct the PERT network for the project and determine the project probability of completion time. The project due date is 54 days.
EXAMPLE:
Activi ty Activity designati on Immediate predecess or Time estimates for each activity (days) To A B C D E F 1-3 1-2 3-2 3-4 2-4 4-5 1-3 1-3 1-2, 3-2 3-4, 2-4 20 10 8 10 10 5 Tm 25 15 10 10 12 5 Tp 30 20 12 10 14 5 25 15 10 10 12 5 2.78 2.78 0.444 0 0.444 0 Expected times Variance
Drawbacks: 1. Costly and time consuming. 2. Poor time estimates. 3. Bias to use pessimistic time estimates.
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