An Workplace Dilemma

ABC is among the most prestigious companies in India. Every year loads of talented students from different countries join here and get nice salaries and great profiles. Subir joined the company with the same purpose. He was a Senior roject !anager who slogged the daylight to earn money and get promoted to a higher position at ABC. His company decided to put him in charge of their flagship construction division. At this time the division was e"ecuting a roject A. roject A was for a long#term client of the company # AC!E Inc$ which gave stable revenues year on year at the rate of %& Cr per annum. 'he contract for the roject A had to be renewed every year. 'he current contract e"pired in April &(%) and was up for renewal as normal. Subir after joining his new role$ really wanted to prove his capabilities to his bosses$ searched long and hard for new businesses that the division could e"pand into. He *new that while roject A was on#going long term project which was lucrative to the ABC$ changing mar*et dynamics could +uic*ly cause the project to be *illed at any time in the future$ leaving ABC in a fi". Subir after his efforts and search found that a rival company of AC!E , A-A. Inc had a won large government project to setup a new large scale development$ and was loo*ing for partners and contractors to develop the project for it. He had identified one particular area ABC could wor* with A-A. for. 'his contract would be worth %/ Cr to ABC a year if they will be able to get win the contract from A-A.. In !arch &(%) A-A. announces that vendor evaluation will start for the project in !ay &(%). It also announced that due to its on#going legal battle with AC!E Inc in relation to corporate espionage and malicious attac*s through vendors$ it has decided that all future contracts can only bid by vendors who do not have an ongoing relationship with AC!E will be eligible to bid for the project. Subhir is in a fi" now$ on one hand he really wants to impress his bosses in his new job$ he doesn0t want to lose his largest customer and get fired. He conducts a detailed study of all the possible scenarios in the A-A. contract bidding process. His study finds that there are only few vendors who +ualify technically and have the e"pertise to e"ecute the project and he has estimated that ABC has a 1(2 chance of winning the bid$ if they were to end relations with AC!E and then bid for the A-A. project. Subir also conducted detailed mar*et study on the sales prospects in the current mar*et scenario for his company. 'o his surprise he found that if his company was not involved in with A-A. or AC!E$ there was a chance reali3ing more revenues with the current resources of his division. 'here were many clients who were willing to pay much more for on#demand services$ rather than get tied up in multi#year contracts. AC!E and A-A. were saving costs by offering safe long term contracts. His analysis tells him that there is /2 chance that his division could ma*e 3ero sales for this year. 'here is a &/2 chance that he is able to achieve 1 Cr in sales$ 4(2 chance that he can win 5s.%& Cr worth contract$ &/2 chance of contracts worth 5s.%1.6 Cr and a very slight chance 7/28 of ma*ing sales worth 5s.&%.1 Cr. 9n the basis of this data$ he has to decide now 7!arch &(%)8 on whether he needs to continue with the AC!E contract$ or end relations with AC!E and go bid for the A-A. contract$ and if that bid also fails should he go to open mar*et to reali3e this year0s sales.