TARGET TECHNICAL REVIEW FOR THE WEEK ENDED 14TH FEBRUARY 2014- NO.

0015/2014

GENERAL COMMENT For the last 2 weeks the all share index moved from 40,572 to 38,964. This week remind me of the phrase Bill Williams, of trading chaos system, use to show at the beginning of his seminar OPPORTUNITY IS NOWHERE How did you interpret the phrase- Opportunity is no where or Oppportunity is now here. For moist people, they are not likely to be happy with the market at this moment. But, for me this is a good opportunity to acquire, good quality stocks at beaten down prices. Come to think about it, at this moment people who have bought shares about 12months ago can conveniently exit most of their stocks at a profit. But, you can be thinking of the risk, for now I can say the risk in the market is low, if you select the right stock, just assume you are investing in a savings deposit with option for extra interest (for market rebound). The only thing is that you must, know those stock that will pay dividend at a rate close to the saving deposit rate or a stock that can be like Nestle, which advance quite well during the last market decline of 2009 to 2012. Again, I will say being a subscriber for the paid version can help in this respect.

TOPIC FOR THE WEEK This week, I will like to give insight into what goes behind my stock recommendations. The major consideration is to be able to enter good stocks using the upward momentum. If we look at stock movements in general, we will observe that there will be a period of rapid movement within 3 to 8 weeks and the upward movement will stop again or enter into a state of consolidation. If an investor is able to enter the stock during a period of rapid movement, I am sure that it is possible to make 40% capital appreciation within 2 weeks. If you are lucky to catch this type of movement, I can assure you that for some stocks that may be the main movement for the whole year, the next 11 to 12 months practically may not produce any substantial movement. Many examples abound in the market, for example last year -----MRS moved from NGN19 to 50, NEM from 0 .50 to 1.00. I have shown the chart for these two below. This is the benefit you will get by reading this newsletter every forth night on Scribd or you get our subscription version. The thrust of my recommendation is to catch this type of rapid movements, I can assure you, and that you will definitely catch some of these moves by keeping a date with our newsletter.

NEM INSURANCE- Moved from NGN0.50 to NGN1.00 between Dec 2012 to February 2013 _____________________________________________________________________________

MRS OIL PLC- Moved from NGN19 to NGN 50 between July 2014 to Nov 2013

Going further I can list the criteria as follows: Momentum- as above Fundamentally sound companies. The stock prices have fallen to the level that many good companies are now very cheap. The worst that may happen for some of these is that you get about 5% dividend yield at the end of 12 months: what interest do bank pays for your saving? Just about this, but the stock has the potential for capital gain. In your mind, you can ask, what about the risk of prices falling, dont worry about till I finish my list. Financial ratios. In the previous years, when many companies were profitable, script issues were common and this can only come from a company with adequate reserve. This year many firms are returning to profitability, I expect some bonus declarations and I am targeting this. For my subscribers/caucus members, I listed some companies that come rain or shine the 2013 year end result will be a bumper one. I expect some bonus declarations from these type of companies. Among the ratios I look at are- Profit margin -Liquidity ratio -Increase in sales versus increase in profit With the above ratios, you can see that by following our write-up and analysis you can be protected from big losses that may arise News about companies initially picked up by our proprietary analysis. The proprietary analysis give the expected top and expected bottom/support levels. If we see negative news about a company, then we will exercise caution in recommending it. Even as at now, there are organisations in the market that seems to be doing well, but because of the negative/unethical issues surrounding that institution it will not be a good investment. For example an organisation with corporate governance issue will not be a good investment, no matter the positive media publicity. Such organisations are disasters waiting to happen- do I hear about the recent failed banks (I leave you to mention their names). In the light of this, there is a performing indigenous organisation, which seems to be flying high as at now, but I stumble on negative news about the company. I have some five figure 5 digits of shares in that organisation, I have liquidated 20,000 units of the shares (the unit price is around NGN2 to 3), I am waiting for the 2013 report to decide whether to bail out totally or not. But I see the organisation managing themselves probably till about September 2014 before the negative news may start to impact on their performance. If you need the full gist I may direct you to the news source. Proprietary forecast levels. For me this is like the oracle. It can confirm what is going on without you being close to the organisation at all. Did you read my last newsletter about some 2 stocks in my sell list? Check the date of publication and see this news (http://energymixreport.com/japaul-oil-diversifies-targets-n50bn-investment

) that came out just 3 days after. I dont even have to be in Nigeria, I can be miles away and still be able to able to forecast a sale or buy with over 60% accuracy level. For me, to use the language of software analysis, this is Oracle 12c (or what is the latest oracle software version?).

Straight to the main business for the week: a) Stock selection for the week/next 2 weeks The market is down; I see this as opportunity to acquire some good company at cheap prices. For this week I see: - University Press Dividend Yield b) Target Prices for year for some stocks Contd MARKET PRICE AS AT JAN 2 2014 (NGN) Forecast 1ST Top Forecast Final Top Forecast 1st Temporary Bottom Forecast Expected Final Bottom

STOCK/INDEX

Fidelity Bank

2.70 4.70

5.30 97.48 71.02 31.73 213.02

2.54 77.24 56.96 26.05 210.19

1.94 56.44 47.08 24.76 187.47

Flour Mills GLAXOSMITH GUARANTY GUINNESS

87.00 86.57 68.00 27.75 235.09 66.58 28.85 220.39

0.77 IKEJAHOTEL INTBREW 28.7 25.26 28.37 21.63 18.52 1.72 2.36 1.18 0.50

This my target for 2014, has been very interesting and I have been making use of it and the result I will be able to disclose as time goes on. C) Stocks Good For Shorting Trans Nationwide Express

IPWA

You can e-mail me to get my more list. In conclusion, I will very much encourage you to subscribe for the paid version of this newsletter as you will get ideas that are worth trading on, plus have the opportunity for you to talk with me at any critical time you need my opinion. This year we must all make money together and avoid making losses. I assure you that you will get full value for your money. The subscription will contain the charts, the reasons behind the recommendations, my weekly selection table, where to get free stock charts, how to read the charts for the stock on my selection list and be able to target the stocks that are likely to give good moves on your own.

Writer: Yusuf Kelani ACA. Final Securities Trading Certification from Ghana Stock Exchange There is a better version of this newsletter available (this is the subscription version). At a very reasonable fee, you can have my full fortnightly analysis. I am sure the gains from the newsletter can more than pay for the cost over 100times. For rate for the newsletter, you can contact me. The newsletter will be sent to you forthrightly. To gauge the performance you can follow my postings on scribd and other blogs. Just google Target Technical analysis of Nigeria Stock market. Explanation of Terms: Support: Price at which on can start thinking of buying. This is like saying get set to buy. It is a forecast buying Zone. Resistance: Price at which you should think of selling/taking some profit or exercise caution in buying at this price.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation. Contact:+2348023054935, E-Mail- 2002yok@gmail.com

See some of my Videos on stock Investmenthttp://www.youtube.com/user/newyorktraders/feed?filter=2 Get text of my newsletters on scribd.com; http://www.scribd.com/doc/161038356/TargetTechnical-Review-Newsletter-009-17-August-2013