Final project Climate change: an overview of what can be expected in Hungary

Change in temperature and precipitation So far, the most significant effect of climate change can be seen in the increase of the number of days of heat alert, and this tendency is expected to continue in the next decades. By 2040 the number of days of heat alert will have increased by 14 days compared with 1961-19901. The expected summer warming of Hungary in 2071- 2100 compared with 1961-1990 ranges from 4.5-5.1C (scenario A2) and 3.7-4.2C (scenario B2)2. By the end of the 21st century, Central European countries will experience the same number of hot days as are currently experienced in southern Europe3. However, although it is unequivocal that there will be changes in the climate of Hungary, the impacts will not be the same in every region. Four main climate-region types have been distinguished by Mezsi and his collegaues4: the western hilly area: relatively small temperature increase and change of heavy rain events a west central corridor from the north to the south of Hungary: moderate temperature increase, moderate precipitation increase a large area of Hungary, ranging from the centre to the south-east, characterized by a flat topography: highest temperature increase, highest projected precipitation decline, a growing concentration of rainfall and thus longer drought periods the north-eastern part along the Slovakian border: highest temperature variation, more humidity Agriculture and crop productivity It can be seen that the most affected area in the country will be the Great Hungarian Plain situated in the south-east which is expected to see longer drought periods due to temperature increase and precipitation decline. This will have severe effects on agriculture and crop productivity. Hungarian agro-ecosystems cover more than 80% of its territory; therefore the

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Hungarian Ministry of Environment and Water (2009) Bartholy et al. (2007) 3 Beniston et al. (2007) 4 Mezsi et al. (2013)

agricultural sectors vulnerability to climate change is extremely high, that is why adaptation measures are very important. Since our climate is expected to be more Mediterranean like, we will experience a reduction in river runoff, soil moisture and recharge to groundwater. This will result in less water available for irrigation. Unfortunately, among other areas the Tiszavalley will especially face water shortage problems due to already existing irrigation problems. Anomalies in weather and water supply can also affect livestock, fodder, crop variety, yielding ability, thus the market of agricultural products, meat and dairy. It is important to point out that initially, in the first years/decades the crop productivity (such as cereals and sugar beet) will benefit from the ascending levels of temperature and the decrease in precipitation. However, as we go down the road to a 4 C global warming, benefits will turn into long-term problems. Biodiversity The change in temperature and precipitation will not only affect agriculture and crop productivity, it will also harm biodiversity. Due to warming and increased evaporation, smaller lakes will be at great danger of significantly decreasing or even drying up. In addition, the saline content of rivers and their eutrophication is increasing, thus extending the number of species extinct or in danger of extinction. Besides Lake Balaton, small and shallow oxbows situated in the Great Hungarian Plain are also in danger of temporary drying up. The degradation and loss of natural habitats will unfavourably affect game stock. The process of drying might decrease the quality and number of offspring, thus both the small and big game population will suffer from the changes. The habitat of waterfowls is shrinking and the nesting places are especially endangered. The degradation of their natural habitat might cause shifts in their migration routes, while field games will most likely leave the extremely dry areas (most of which can be found in the Great Hungarian Plain)5. Human health At the moment, 68% of the population of Hungary lives in urbanised areas and in a few years time this rate is forecasted to reach 80%. It is therefore inevitable to assess the climate change related urban health problems. One of the most significant problems is the urban heat problem. Cardiovascular morbidity especially among elderly is on the rise due to the higher number of days of heat extremes6. Heat waves combined with urban heat islands pose a great
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Hungarian Ministry of Environment and Water (2005) Hungarian Ministry of Environment and Water (2009)

threat to the elderly, the unwell, the socially isolated, and outdoor workers7. It is projected that climate change will probably not affect the spread of mosquito, tick or sand-fly-borne diseases in Hungary, that is Hungarians will not see an increase in the number of these diseases in the next decades8. All in all, the most important changes and negative effects will include the health issue of increasing heat waves, more intense flooding and drought, loss of agricultural productivity and the possible loss of important game stock due to the degradation of their habitats.

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Maloney and Forbes (2011), in: IPCC (2012) Semenza and Menne (2009)

References:
Bartholy, J., Pongrcz, R. and G.Y. Gelyb, 2007. Regional climate change expected in Hungary for 2071-2100. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research 5(1): 1-17. Beniston, M., 2004. The 2003 heat wave in Europe: a shape of things to come? Geophysical Research Letters 31: L02202. Hungarian Ministry of Environment and Water, 2005. The Fourth National Communication of the Republic of Hungary on Climate Change, 151 pp. Hungarian Ministry of Environment and Water, 2009. 5th National Communication to the UNFCCC, 194 pp. Maloney, S.K. and C.F. Forbes, 2011: What effect will a few degrees of climate change have on human heat balance? Implications for human activity. International Journal of Biometeorology,55(2), 147-160. Mezsi, G., Meyer, B.C., Loibl, W., Aubrecht, C., Csorba, P. and T. Bata, 2013. Assessment of regional climate change impacts on Hungarian landscapes. Regional Environmental Change 13: 797811. Semenza J.C. and B. Menne, 2009. Climate Change and Infectious Diseases in Europe. Lancet ID 9:365-375.