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TableofContents

ConfidentialityStatement YnFxMonthlyPriceForecastPolyester. AsianPriceForecast Naphtha Paraxylene.. Ethylene PurifiedTerephthalicAcid. MonoEthyleneGlycol. PolyesterChip,semidull PSF1.4D/38mm.. POY75D TexturedYarn150/48. EuropeanPriceForecast. Naphtha PurifiedTerephthalicAcid. MonoEthyleneGlycol. Glycol PolyesterChip.. PSF1.7dtexSD.. POY167dtex TexturedYarn167dtex.. USAPriceForecast.. Naphtha PurifiedTerephthalicAcid. MonoEthyleneGlycol. Glycol PolyesterChip.. PSF1.2/1.5DSF. POY70D. TexturedYarn150D..

2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

YnFx PolyesterPriceForecastJuly2013 ISIEmergingMarketsPDF ro-kpmg6 from 62.217.241.204

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ConfidentialityStatement
This document is confidential and has been made available to the individual to whom it is addressed on the understanding that its content py g p y part p y any y process p p and copyrights will not be misused. Reproduction of any of this work by whatsoever without written permission of YNFX.comisstrictlyprohibited. All prices in this PriceWatch Report are indicative prices and may vary according to the type of fiber, quality level required. Information contained in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however YNFX.com will accept no responsibility or liability for commercialdecisionsclaimedtohavebeenbasedonthecontentofthereport.

YnFx PolyesterPriceForecastJuly2013 ISIEmergingMarketsPDF ro-kpmg6 from 62.217.241.204

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AsianPolyesterChainPriceForecast
Product/Specs Naphtha Paraxylene Ethylene PTA MEG PETChipSemidull, contspngFibregrade PSF1.4D/38mm POY75D TexturedYarn150/48 Market JapanCFR KoreaFOB KoreaFOB Korea/TaiwanFOB Korea/TaiwanFOB TaiwanFOB Korea/TaiwanFOB FEAsia(C&F) FEAsia(C&F) Unit US$/ton US$/ton US$/ton US$/ton US$/ton US$/ton US$/kg US$/kg US$/kg Jun13 Actual 861.6 1,413.1 1,232.5 1 232 5 1,066.8 947.8 1,365.0 Jul13 Sep13 Dec13 %YoY %YoY %YoY Forecast Mostlikely Tentative 865.3 2.3 872.64 11.1 883.71 6.3 1,417.9 2.5 1,427.48 5.8 1,441.84 10.7 1,233.4 1 233 4 12 9 12.9 1 235 32 1,235.32 6.9 6 9 1,238.13 1 238 13 2 2.4 4 1,070.1 6.3 1,076.66 0.9 1,086.57 6.7 949.1 3.6 951.68 13.9 955.62 15.6 1,369.9 3.8 1,379.73 1.5 1.43 4.3 1.58 3.3 1.70 2.5 1,394.47 5.6 1.44 7.3 1.59 4.4 1.71 3.2 4.7 5.5 4.6

1.42 1.42 1.57 1.57 1.69 1.69

1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900


US$/Tons

1400 PTAPriceTrend 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800


US$/Tons

MEGPriceTrend

800

J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J 2011 2012 2013

700

J FMAM J J A S O N D J FMAM J J A S O N D J FMAM J J 2011 2012 2013

2000 1800 1600 1400 1200


US$/Tons

2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 PETChipsPriceTrend 1 25 1.25 1.00


US$/kg

PSFPriceTrend

1000

J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J 2011 2012 2013

J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J 2011 2012 2013

2.50 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1 00 1.00


US$/kg

2.50 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 POYPriceTrend 1.25 1 00 1.00


US$/kg

TextureYarnPriceTrend

J FMAM J J A S ON D J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J 2011 2012 2013

J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J 2011 2012 2013

YnFx PolyesterPriceForecastJuly2013 ISIEmergingMarketsPDF ro-kpmg6 from 62.217.241.204

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POLYESTERCHAININASIA
ForecastforJuly2013 A strong dollar and a selloff in global stock markets had sparked off the losses in crude futures in late June. A strong US currency makes dollardenominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, and weighs on commodity prices, thus will put pressure on the upward rise in crude oil prices in July. However, the ongoing turmoil in Libya and other oil producingregions,aswellasaNorthSeaoutagearelikelytoinfluencetheoilmarkets.

Ethylene markets are unlikely to gain and prices will remain flat. In the downstream MEG segment, one contract price was announced for July, down US$90 at US$1,100 a ton. However, spot will remain unchanged given five consecutive months of decline. Paraxylene Contract Price settlements for July were heard at US$1,410 CFR Asia from ExxonMobil, JX Nippon and SOil g $ , , pbutlesserthanthatseeninJune. against theirnominationofoverUS$1,500 1,550 aton.PTAp priceswillg goup

Polyester chips prices will reconcile after dropping in June. Semi dull chip markets although will remain soft on rigid demand the super bright chip market will mirror the trend seen in June. Polyester filament yarn markets will continue to remain weak while offers for FDYs and DTYs will be largely maintained while and those for POY may be lowered. Polyester staple fibre marketswillremainstabletosoftinJuly. TrendsinJune Ethylene prices in Asia firmed up in June amid falling butadiene prices while the markets were supported by the modest demand from other downstream while cost support was weakening. Asian ethylene markers, CFR Northeast Asia averaged US$1,232 a ton up US$34.50 month on month. With paraxylene contract for Asia for June saw a speedy settlement at US$1,400aton.ThissawspotriseduringthemonthtoaverageUS$1,413aton.

In case of PTA, some capacity was taken off line, since the margins remained poor at US$100110 while the spot values averaged US$1,066 a ton FOB Korea/Taiwan. Increasingly, PTA sellers were seeking formula pricing, based on a margin over paraxylene rather than using spot averages. Asian nomination for MEG contracts in June saw a rollover between US$1,150 1,190 a ton. The lusterless of spot pricing supported the rollover since there was more length in the market than anticipated in recentmonths.HolidaysinChinaandAsiahelpedkeepmarketsflatataroundUS$94565aton.

Polyester fibre chip contracts in China were concluded at 9,900 Yuan a ton for June, up 100 Yuan from May numbers. However, spot prices were down at 9,3009,400 Yuan a ton and even at 9,100 Yuan a ton, equivalent to US$1,270 a ton C+F. General pricesintheregionhoveredaroundUS$1,350 US$1 350aton ton. Polyester staple fibre markets were stable to soft in June, with trading values shedding lower by US cents 3 per kg. This did not spur downstream buyers who showed marginal interest given tight cash flow amid sluggish trading activities. Polyester filament yarn markets continued to remain weak despite firming cost support while offers for POYs and textured yarns largely decliningamidunstablesentiment.

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USAPolyesterChainPriceForecast
Product/Specs Naphtha PTA MEG PETChip PSF1.2/1.5DSF POY70D TexturedYarn150D USGulf Delivered FOB Delivered Delivered Delivered Delivered Market US$/bl US$/ton US$/ton US$/ton US$/ton US$/ton UScents/lb Jun13 Actual 100.26 1,354.00 1 354 00 1,224.00 1,897.50 2,303.18 2,832.14 139.00 Jul13 Sep13 Dec13 %YoY %YoY %YoY Forecast Mostlikely Tentative 100.72 1.9 101.63 18.6 103.01 13.2 1,358.13 1 358 13 11 3 11.3 1 366 38 1,366.38 1.9 1 9 1,378.76 1 378 76 2.9 29 1,227.13 14.8 1,233.39 3.3 1,242.78 1.7 1,902.52 6.7 1,912.55 2.4 1,927.60 2.6 2,311.33 7.0 2,327.64 0.4 2,352.10 2.5 2,841.68 7.9 2,860.75 3.4 2,889.36 2.0 139.29 9.7 139.86 6.8 140.72 2.3

1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 PTAPriceTrend


US$/Ton

1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100


US$/Ton

MEGPriceTrend

1100

J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J 2011 2012 2013

1000

J FMAM J J A S O N D J FMAM J J A S O N D J FMAM J J 2011 2012 2013

2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400


US$/Ton

2900 2700 2500 2300 2100 PETChipsPriceTrend 1900 1700


US$/Ton

PSFPriceTrend

1200

1500

J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J 2011 2012 2013

J FMAM J J A S ON D J FMAM J J A S ON D J F MAM J J 2011 2012 2013

3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200


US$/To on

150 140 130 120 110 100


UScen nts/lb

POYPriceTrend

TextureYarnPriceTrend

2000

J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J 2011 2012 2013

J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J 2011 2012 2013

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EuropeanPolyesterChainPriceForecast
Product/Specs Naphtha PTA MEG PETChip PSF1.7dtexSF POY167dtex TexturedYarn167dtex Market Rotterdam Delivered FOB Delivered Delivered Delivered Delivered US$/bl US$/ton US$/ton US$/ton US$/ton US$/ton UScents/kg Jun13 Actual 92.50 1,227.50 1 227 50 1,268.00 1,761.00 2,220.00 2,140.00 244.00 Jul13 Sep13 Dec13 %YoY %YoY %YoY Forecast Mostlikely Tentative 92.91 1.8 93.72 12.3 94.94 8.6 1,229.14 1 229 14 15 0 15.0 1 232 41 1,232.41 6.1 6 1 1,237.32 1 237 32 7 7.7 7 1,270.99 17.6 1,276.97 9.0 1,285.95 7.2 1,765.79 13.4 1,775.38 2.7 1,789.76 2.0 2,224.08 11.5 2,232.23 1.2 2,244.45 0.2 2,144.37 10.8 2,153.11 0.1 2,166.21 0.1 244.46 6.8 245.39 3.2 246.79 3.2

1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100


US$/Tons

1700 PTAPriceTrend 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100


US$/Tons

MEGPriceTrend

1000

1000

J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J 2011 2012 2013

J FMAM J J A S O N D J FMAM J J A S O N D J FMAM J J 2011 2012 2013

2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200


US$/Tons

3500 PSFPriceTrend 3000 2500 PETChipsPriceTrend 2000 1500


US$/Ton

1000

J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J 2011 2012 2013

J FMAM J J A S O N D J FMAM J J A S O N D J FMAM J J 2011 2012 2013

2900 2700 2500 2300 2100 1900

400 350 300 250 POYPriceTrend 200 150


UScents/k kg

1700
US$/Tons

TextureYarnPriceTrend

1500

J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J A S OND J FMAM J J 2011 2012 2013

J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J 2011 2012 2013

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POLYESTERCHAININEUROPE&USA
ForecastforJuly2013 Crude oil markets may come under pressure from the stronger dollar. Concerns over sluggish demand and changes to monetarypolicyintopconsumernationsliketheUSandChinamayrollintoJulytoo. US spot ethylene will remain almost flat as supplies increased with two large producers restarting production facilities during the last week of June. Downstream, the imminent end of the turnaround season for MEG, as well as the approaching summer months, will weigh on July MEG prices. In Europe, ethylene contract price for July was fully settled at Euro 1,170 a ton FD NWE. European spot paraxylene price are set to follow the trends in Asian markets which are expected to show a slight recovery. Spot paraxylene price in US may slide further given the weak demand and tracking feedstock MX prices. PTA sales were seen picking up in Europe and improved weather will help PET markets. In US, PTA contract may roll over since there were supply issues. Polyester filament and staple fibre prices may inch up in July. However, it is understood that suppliers lagging raw material changes have indicated that prices will be decreased in July. Part of the current problem is that major suppliers held back prices when raw material was moving up. They have started raising prices when raw material prices are declining. Prices in EuropewillcontinuetoremainstableinJuly. TrendsinJune European ethylene market was characterized as backwardated due to strength in the frontend market. May paraxylene contract rolled over at Euro1,120 a ton, while June contract at Euro1,092 reflected the change in current rates. PTA market price for April was at Euro914957 a ton, rolling over in May and June seeing it down Euro19. In US, spot ethylene prices gained with the shutdown of Williams Olefins Geismar cracker in Louisiana on 13 June. Spot increased by US cents 6.5 per pound with trades done between US cents 59.060.0 per pound in mid June. In US, paraxylene settlement for May was at US cents 72 per poundwithPTAatUScents61.40.ContractforJunerolledoverandsufficientsupply.

MEG contract in US were mostly set using Asian contract and spot prices, and there has been fewer changes in the past couple of months. MEG contracts were around US cents 4546 per pound FOB. MEGlobal had announced a US cents 2 decrease for its benchmark for June, back to US cents 61 per pound. European MEG contract price was fully settled at Euro 947 a ton FD NWE, down Euro 18 on May. Spot averaged US$1,268 a ton, up US$16 over the month. Polyester chip prices in US remained unchangedatUScent8587whilethesameinEuropeeasedtoEuro1,2801,350aton

Polyester filament yarn business remained quite firm in US, although there was slight weakening from a strong level until April. POY prices remained unchanged after dropping in May. May PSF pricing was generally flat in June and spinning fibre prices revised downwards. Low melt fibre was down US cents 2 per pound in June. In Europe, polyester filament continued to show the influenceofweakerimportpricesforPOYandFDY.ImportoffersweredownUScents510perkg.

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