Basic Metals

World crude steel production rose 1.2% year-on-year in April, driven by a 4.7% increase in Asian production as activity in all other regions contracted. Within Asia, Chinese production grew For further information contact Kiran Ahmed kahmed@oxfordeconomics.com 6.8% while Japanese output was up 1%, supported by the weak yen and resultant revival in manufacturing. Elsewhere, UK production continues to surge ahead while Spanish output was up a strong 10.3% year-on-year. US production, Basic metals: Output growth meanwhile, dropped sharply, weighed down by high import % year volumes. 50 The latest basic metals data mostly paint a similar picture to the volume crude steel data. Japanese output posted a fourth consecutive monthly gain in March, driven by the rise in steel production. US output declined across all sub-sectors while UK output registered the strongest monthly rise. Looking ahead, weak order intake and the influx of imports is likely to keep a cap on US output growth this year. Japanese production should benefit from the pick up in domestic activity in consuming sectors, especially engineering. Activity in Europe is likely to remain muted given weak demand conditions with a few bright spots such as the UK.
40 30 20 10 0 -10 Japan W. Europe US Forecast

-20 -30 -40 -50 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Oxford Economics

Crude steel: Output growth

% year 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 Japan W. Europe US Forecast

Non-ferrous metals: Output growth

% year 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 W. Europe -30 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Oxford Economics

Japan

US

Forecast

-60 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Oxford Economics

Crude steel: Output

mn tonnes, 3mma 14 12 10 W. Europe

Crude steel: Output

mn tonnes, 3mma 5

Germany

3 8 6 4 2 May-08 1 US UK Japan 2 France Italy

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

0 May-08

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

Source: World Steel

Source: World Steel

Monthly Industry Briefing: May 2013

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Basic Metals

Crude steel: Output

mn tonnes, 3mma 80 70 China 60 50

Crude steel: Output

mn tonnes, 3mma 140 World 120 100 80

40 30 20 10 0 May-08 India, Korea, Taiwan CIS May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13

Non-Triad

60 40 20 Triad 0 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13

Source: World Steel

Source: World Steel

Steel: Net exports

mn tonnes, 3mma 8 7 6 5 4 3 China

Steel: New orders

US$ bn, 3mma 16 14
EU15

2005=100, 3mma 240

US (LHS)

200

12 160 10 120 8

2 1 Japan 0 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 US

6 4 May-08

Germany (RHS)

80

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

40 May-13

Source: Haver / Eurofer / AISI

Source: Haver Analytics / Oxford Economics

Non-ferrous metals: Output

2005=100, 3mma 130 120 US 110 100 90 80 70 Japan 60 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 W. Europe

Non-ferrous metals: Output

2005=100, 3mma 120 110 100 90 80 70 Italy 60 50 May-08 France Germany UK

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

Source: Oxford Economics

Source: Oxford Economics

Monthly Industry Briefing: May 2013

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Basic Metals

Non-ferrous metals: New orders

US$Bn, 3mma 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 May-08 Germany (RHS) US (LHS) 2005=100, 3mma 190 170 150 130

Non-ferrous metals: LME inventories

mn tonnes 6 5 4 3
110 90 70 50 May-13

Aluminium

2 1 0 May-08

Copper Zinc

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

Source: Haver Analytics / Oxford Economics

Source: Haver Analytics

Non-ferrous metals: Prices

US$ / thous tonnes 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 May-08 Zinc May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 Aluminium Copper

Basic metals: Prices

2005=100 240 220 US 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 May-08 Germany UK

May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

Source: Haver Analytics

Source: Haver Analytics / Stabu / BLS

Industry Output - Basic Metals

Value Added Index (2005=100) and year-on-year % changes, seasonally adjusted

USA Index
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr 105.1 105.4 103.1 102.3 -2.1 -2.5 -1.4 -4.1 89.4 91.4 92.6 106.6 104.6 102.6 105.2 104.7 99.8 101.0 103.9 104.1

Japan Index
95.2 94.2 91.3 90.3 89.7 85.8 85.1 83.0 84.8

Germany Index
97.4 98.3 98.7 99.1 94.3 96.6 93.8 91.8 92.5 93.9 93.4 96.4 -

France Index
74.8 75.0 72.7 74.3 79.4 73.9 71.2 71.0 70.1 70.2 71.6 70.1 -

Italy Index % change

81.4 83.2 82.7 83.1 84.6 82.9 80.5 77.2 75.8 74.6 75.4 73.5 -11.0 -6.1 -7.6 -8.3 -4.6 -6.6 -7.0 -10.5 -9.8 -13.3 -10.4 -12.8 -

UK Index
74.8 82.9 80.4 80.0 78.5 76.7 78.3 74.5 74.1 70.2 76.5 82.4 -

% change
5.8 4.0 1.9 3.9 2.9 -3.3 -3.5 -1.8 -2.7

% change
8.4 8.9 3.5 1.8 -0.9 -3.3 -5.9 -6.7 -3.6 -2.2 -2.4 -3.1 -

% change
-4.7 -4.3 -2.4 -4.1 -5.3 -0.4 -4.5 -4.1 -0.2 -1.2 -4.0 -0.4 -

% change
-10.4 -9.2 -8.4 -7.2 -1.0 -8.2 -11.1 -10.3 -7.9 -9.2 -3.7 -8.2 -

% change
-6.7 3.1 0.1 -1.7 -2.2 -4.5 1.0 -4.3 2.4 -7.6 -0.5 8.0 -

Monthly Industry Briefing: May 2013

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