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Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.) January 2014 @ThinaSaltvedt
A tight global oil market while the US market is awash with natural gas
US: WTI oil and Henry Hub Gas prices
17.5 USD per mmBtu 15.0 Natural Gas Henry Hub, l s 12.5 100 10.0 75 7.5 50 5.0 25 !"# l$% t s&eet 'ru(e, r s
150
125
125
100
100
75
75 50 50 25
2.5
25
0.0 90
0 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
0 97 98 99 00 01 02 0) 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 1)
0
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Commodities Research
Expected price effects: Fuel Oil 1% and 3.5% price spread is expected to narrow, while Fuel Oil 1% and Gasoil 0.1% expected to widen
45 40 )5 )0 25 20 15
260
".1% #asoil $%F $ar&oes - 1% Fuel oil F'( $ar&oes spread (s!aps) USD/tonne
Risk
10
240
5 0 1
)an *"15
) 5 7 9
Months or!ard
11 1) 15 17 19 21 2) 25 27 29 )1 )) )5
6m ran%e 14.01.2014
220 200 1
)an *"15
) 5 7 9
11 1) 15 17 19 21 2) 25 27 29 )1 )) )5
6m ran%e
14.01.2014
Shale revolution and increasing LNG capacity imply major changes in the European gas market. Oil market remains fairly tight.
US gas exports
300
-atural #as .ri/e ,rends 18 USD/++(,U 16
USD per barrel
Japan LNG
250 200
14 12 10 8 6 4
NBP
150 100 50
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Henry Hub /US0 NB- /U10 2apan 3NG $mp,rt
2034
Henry Hub
Long term US natural gas prices fallen markedly lately triggers the use of Natural Gas as the fuel for future investements
2012 2013
2014
2012
2020
2030
Transportation will increase its share of total oil demand going forward
Contact details:
Thina Margrethe Saltvedt Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.) Commodities Research Nordea Markets Phone: +47 22 48 79 93 Mobile: +47 90 63 40 75 Thina.margrethe.saltvedt@nordea.com @ThinaSaltvedt
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