Holly A.

Bamford, PhD
Assistant Administrator NOAAs National Ocean Service

Cat Modeling 2014: Adapting for Today Preparing for Tomorrow February 12, 2014

Outline
Major Environmental Risk Factors Managing Risk Building Resilient Communities & Economies Discussion
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Coastal Vulnerability Around the World

America Was Born on the Coast

Americans Need Resilient Coasts

Coastal Communities:
Steadily Growing

39%
of the people on

52%
of the people on

10%
of the land

20%
of the land

National Coastal Population Rpt, 2013

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A Coastal Nation

Coastal Economies:
Vital to U.S. and International Markets 98% of products in U.S reach us through ports. 45% of U.S. GDP is generated in coastal shoreline counties.
$6.6 trillion 51 million jobs & $2.8 trillion in wages

Coastal tourism and recreation is significant portion of U.S. economy.

Beach recreation alone ~$30 billion annually.

What Does the Future Hold?

Billion Dollar Disasters: Fact of Life

Source: NOAA 10

Weather-related versus Geophysical Events

Source: Munich RE 11

Sea Level Trend: Atlantic City, NJ

Mean Sea Level Trend

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Determining Risk
(Life, Economic, Political, Habitat, Social)

Consequence

Probability (Frequency)
Chart courtesy of Western Kentucky University

13

Public Risk Perception

14

Attitudes and Incentives

Energy Rebates

Increased Fuel Efficiency

Source: Global Warmings Six Americas, 2009.

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Managing Risk: Who Pays?

16

Sandy: A Turning Point?

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Managing Risk: A Systematic Approach

Planning for Long-Term Resilience
Promoting Resilience to Coastal Hazards and Climate Change
Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Supporting Community Livability

Ensuring Safe, Efficient, and Environmentally Sound Navigation

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Coastal Intelligence

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Decision Support Tools: Sea Level Viewer

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Decision Support Tools: Sea Level Viewer

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Decision Support Tools: Sea Level Viewer

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Decision Support Tools: County Snapshots

Coastal County Snapshot Uses

Demographics information Exposure and resilience to flooding (population in/out of floodplain) Coastal dependent economy Comparison across counties Downloads can serve as handout/ educational tool

www.csc.noaa.gov/snapshots
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Decision Support Tools: Coastal Change

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/ccapatlas/
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Not Waiting for a Disaster

to Achieve Better Resilience Today Digital Coast Resilience Data and Tools

http://csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/

Coastal County Snapshots C-CAP Land Cover Atlas Coastal Lidar SLR and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer ENOW

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We Live in a Built Environment

Multiple Lines of Defense

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Green/Gray Rebuilding Concepts

Example: Visualizing Living Shorelines (CanVis)

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/canvis

Green/Gray Infrastructure:
Working with Nature

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Shared Flood Risk Management:

Buying Down Risk

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Adaptation Costs of Climate Change Risks

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Change is Here: Time to Act is Now

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