Munich Re

2014 RAA Cat Modeling Conference US/Global Natural Catastrophe Year in Review
Carl Hedde, SVP, Head of Risk Accumulation America Inc. Inc Munich Reinsurance America,

Source: FEMA

MR NatCatSERVICE The worlds largest database on natural catastrophes

The Loss Database Today From 1980 until today all loss events; for USA and selected countries in Europe all loss events since 1970. Retrospectively, all great disasters since 1950. In addition, all major historical events starting from 79 i f 9 AD eruption of Mt. Vesuvio (3,000 historical data sets). Currently more than 33,000 events
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US Natural Catastrophe Update

US Headlines - 2013

Insured losses in the United States in 2013 totaled $12.8 billion far below the 2000 to 2012 average loss of $29.4 billion (in 2013 Dollars). Quiet Atlantic hurricane season despite expectations for an active year; US drought of major hurricane landfalls is now 8 years, unprecedented in the reliable historical record. Insured losses from thunderstorm events exceeded $10.0 billion, despite the lowest observed tornado count in a decade. Colorado experienced record-setting record setting wildfires in June June, then record flooding in September. Drought conditions ease in the Desert Southwest, but worsen in California.

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US Natural Catastrophe Update

Natural Disaster Losses in the United States, 2013

As of December 31, 2013

Number of Events 69 11 19 6 1 22 128

Fatalities 110 43 23 1 1 29 207

Estimated Overall Losses (US $m) 16,341 2,935 1,929 Minor Minor 620 21,825

Estimated Insured Losses (US $m) 10,274 1,895 240 Minor Minor 385 12,794
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Severe S Thunderstorm Winter Storm Flood Earthquake & Geophysical Tropical Cyclone Wildfire, Heat, & Drought Totals
Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE

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US Natural Catastrophe Update

Notable Thunderstorm Events 2013

May 18-20: Large outbreak of over 60 tornadoes across the Midwest and southern Great Plains. Moore, Oklahoma, was hit by an EF5 tornado (5th tornado strike of EF2 or above in homes 2 schools, schools and a hospital destroyed the town since 1998) 1998). Thousands of homes, destroyed. Overall insured losses from the outbreak are estimated at US$ 1.8 billion.

Source: FEMA Source: Property Claims Service Munich Re NatCatSERVICE

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US Natural Catastrophe Update

Notable Thunderstorm Events 2013

November 16-17: The largest tornado outbreak ever observed in November (136 (136, based on preliminary counts) caused extensive damage in Illinois, Indiana, and neighboring states. Fall tornado outbreaks are not uncommon, but usually occur further south. Estimated insured losses from the th event t are US$ 900 million. illi

Source: NWS

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US Natural Catastrophe Update

Loss Events in the U.S. 1980 2013

Number of events

Number

250

2013 Total 128 Events

200

150
22

100

19

50

81

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Source: MR NatCatSERVICE Meteorological events (Tropical storm, winter storm, thunderstorm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) 7

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US Natural Catastrophe Update

Loss Events in the US 1980 2013

Overall and insured losses

US$ bn

200

150

100

50

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
*Losses adjusted to inflation based on country CPI. Source: MR NatCatSERVICE

Overall losses (in 2013 values)*

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Insured losses (in 2013 values)*

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US Natural Catastrophe Update

Significant Natural Catastrophes, 2013

$1 billion economic loss and/or 50 fatalities

Date February 24 25 March 18 19 April 7 11 April 16 18 May 18 20 May 28 31 August 6 7 September 9 16 November 17 - 18
Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE

Event Winter Storm Thunderstorms Winter Storm Thunderstorms Thunderstorms Thunderstorms Thunderstorms Flooding Thunderstorms

Estimated Economic Losses (US $m) 1,300 2,200 1,600 1,100 3,100 2,800 1,300 1,500 1,300
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Estimated Insured Losses (US $m) 690 1,600 1,200 560 1,800 1,400 740 160 931
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US Natural Catastrophe Update

Notable Wildfires in 2013

Colorado: High Park fire near Fort Collins destroyed 257 homes and Waldo Waldo Canyon Canyon fire near Colorado Springs destroyed over 300 homes, becoming the most damaging fire in state history. Insured losses from both fires are estimated at $450 million. California: Rim fire near Yosemite National Park lasted nine weeks over August to October October, scorching 257 257,000 000 acres and destroying 111 buildings. Due to remote location, insurance impacts were minimal.

Source: USFS

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US Natural Catastrophe Update

Colorado Floods September 2013

Stalled frontal system and ample moisture combined to produce up parts of p to 17 of rain over p the Colorado Front Range over a 4 day period, almost the regions expected annual rainfall total. Heaviest rainfall event ever observed in Colorado. 1,500 houses were destroyed, and 19,000 damaged. d another th 19 000 d d Economic Losses are estimated at $1.5 billion; insured losses (excluding NFIP) of $160 million.

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US Natural Catastrophe Update

Significant Natural Catastrophes, 1950 2013

Number of Events ($1 billion economic loss and/or 50 fatalities)

Nine significant natural catastrophes occurred in the United States in 2013.

Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE

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US Natural Catastrophe Update

Number of US Landfalling Tropical Cyclones 1900 2013

There has not been a major hurricane landfall in the US since Wilma in October 2005.

Source: NOAA

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US Natural Catastrophe Update

2013 US Tornado Count

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US Natural Catastrophe Update

US Thunderstorm Loss Trends

Insured Annual Totals 1980 2013

Average insured thunderstorm losses have increased sevenfold since 1980.

2013 T Total: t l $10.3 bn

Source: Property Claims Service Munich Re NatCatSERVICE

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Global Natural Catastrophes in 2013 p

Photo: NASA

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Global Natural Catastrophe Update

Natural Catastrophes Worldwide 2013

Significant events

Typhoon Haiyan, Philippines

Super typhoon making landfall with record-breaking wind speeds over central Philippines

With over 6,000 fatalities and many people still missing it was the deadliest event in 2013 With insured losses of US$ 3.7bn, it was the largest insured loss event in 2013

Hailstorms, Germany

Two severe hailstorms affecting southwestern and northern Germany within two days

Floodings in Central Europe

Torrential persistent rainfalls caused the rivers Danube Danube, Inn Inn, and Elbe to reach record water levels Despite the weakest tornado season in a decade, three very severe tornado outbreaks happened in the USA
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With est. US$ 15.2bn it was the costliest direct economic loss event in 2013 With US$ 10.3bn of insured losses in the USA it was the 6th costliest thunderstorm season on record in the USA
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Series of tornadoes, USA

Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2014

Global Natural Catastrophe Update

Loss Events Worldwide 2013

Five costliest natural catastrophes for the insurance industry

Date D t 27-28.7.2013

R i Region Germany Central Europe USA USA

E Event t Hailstorms

Fatalities F t liti -

Insured losses US$ m 3,700

June 2013

Flooding Severe storms, tornadoes Severe storms, tornadoes Flooding

25

3,000

18-22.5.2013 18-19.3.2013

28 2

1,800 1,600

19-24.6.2013

Canada

1,600

Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2014

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Global Natural Catastrophe Update

Typhoon Haiyan, Philippines

8 12 November 2013

Region

Philippines, Vietnam, China

Overall losses

US$ 10bn

Insured losses

US$ 700m

Fatalities

6,095

Source: Reuters

Deadliest event of 2013

Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2014

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Global Natural Catastrophe Update

Hailstorms, Germany
27 28 July 2013

Region

Southwestern and Northern Germany y

Overall losses

US$ 4.8bn

Insured losses

US$ 3.7bn

Fatalities

Costliest insured loss of 2013

Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2014

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Global Natural Catastrophe Update

River Floods in Europe

30 May 19 June 2013

Region

Central Europe US$ 15.2bn

Overall losses

Insured losses

US$ 3bn

Fatalities

25

Source: Reuters

Costliest direct economic loss of 2013

Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2014

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Global Natural Catastrophe Update

Loss Events Worldwide 1980 2013

Facts

Number of events: 880 The number is well above the 10-year average (20032012): 790 Fatalities: 20,000 The number is very low in comparison with previous years (20032012): 106,000 The deadliest event was Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, with more than 6,000 deaths

Overall direct losses: US$ 125bn 2013 is below the 10-year average (20032012): US$ 184bn (adjusted to inflation) Insured losses: US$ 31bn The insured losses are below the 10-year-average (20032012): US$ 56bn (adjusted to inflation)

Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2014

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Global Natural Catastrophe Update

Loss Events Worldwide 1980 2013

Number of events

Number

1 000

800

600

400

200

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2014

Meteorological events (Tropical storm, winter storm, thunderstorm)

Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement)

Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) 23

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Global Natural Catastrophe Update

Loss Events Worldwide 1980 2013

Overall and insured losses

US$ bn

400

300

200

100

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
*Losses adjusted to inflation based on country CPI.
Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2014

Overall losses (in 2013 values)*

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Insured losses (in 2013 values)*

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Global Natural Catastrophe Update

Loss Events Worldwide 2013

Geographical overview
Winter Storm Christian (St. Jude)
Europe, 2730 October

Floods
Europe, 30 May19 June

Meteorite impact
Russian Federation, 15 February

Flash floods
Canada, 89 July

Earthquake Floods
Canada, 1924 June China, 20 April

Hailstorms Floods
USA, 916 September Germany, 2728 July

Typhoon Fitow
China, Japan, 59 October

Severe storms, tornadoes

USA, 1822 May

Typhoon Haiyan
Philippines, 812 November

Severe storms, tornadoes

USA, 2831 May

Floods Hurricanes Ingrid & Manuel

Mexico, 1219 September India, 1430 June

Floods
Australia, 2131 January 21 31 J

880 Loss events

Earthquake (series)
Pakistan, 2428 September

Heat wave
India, AprilJune
Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE, 2014

Natural catastrophes Selection of significant loss events

Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2014

Geophysical events (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological events (storm)

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Hydrological events (flood, mass movement) Climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, wildfire) Extraterrestrial events (Meteorite impact)
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Global Natural Catastrophe Update

Natural Catastrophes Worldwide 2013

Summary
In insured of US$ 35bn). I total t t l the th USA had h d to t bear b i d losses l f US$ 12.8bn 12 8b (2003-2012-average: (2003 2012 35b )

With insured losses over US$ 6.6bn, Germany was the second largest contributor to worldwide insured losses of US$ 31bn. In the Philippines super typhoon Haiyan produced record wind speeds higher than 300 km/h, destroyed more than half a million homes and left over 6,000 people dead.

The Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most inactive seasons in decades.

Compared to the long-term average the year 2013 was clearly below average in both, loss of life and loss of assets.
Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2014

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Photo: NOAA

Thank you very much for patiently listening

2014 RAA Cat Modelling Conference Carl Hedde Head of Risk Accumulation, Munich Re

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