Cat Modeling 2014: Adapting for Today Preparing for Tomorrow

Portofino Bay Hotel, Orlando FL February 11, 2014 Tony MacDonald Director Urban Coa t !n titute Mon"out# Uni$er ity

!%

&ettin' t#e &cene Call for (e ilience &trate'y Policy (e )on e +nablin' C#an'e

!!%

!!!%

!*%

30%

25%
25%

26%

19%
20%

15%
15%

10%

5%
5% 0% Next year Next 5 years Next 10 years Next 25 years

4%

Longer than that

Once in a lifetime

New Jersey Coastal Residents, February 2013

Don't know, 3%

More likely, 47%

About as likely, 41%

Less likely, 10%

New Jersey Coastal Residents, February 2013

Local government County government 4% State government Federal government Community organizations Family & friends Neighbors Insurance company
0%

30% 21% 30% 33%

25%

13% 18% 24%

27% 68% 46% 28% 29%

20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

22%

13%
10%

Very helpful

Somewhat helpful

NJ Sandy Panel Displaced Residents ( !1"!13 t#rou$# 10!21!13%

Total population: 8.8 million people (2010 Census) Population in coastal counties: 3 million people (34% of state population) The leisure, hospitality and recreation sector of the economy generated $43.4 billion of the 2010 gross state product, equating to 8.9% (NJ Bureau of Labor Market Information 2012). Most tourism is generated by the Jersey Shore The Barnegat Bay generates $4 billion in annual economic activity, $2.3 billion in ecosystem services and $2 billion in annual wages (APP 2012). Economic sensitivity due to weather variability is 8 10% of GSP (Lazo et al. 2011).

Source: Lazo et al. (2011)

10

Estimated economic losses from Sandy are 5 - 6 times the second largest event, the Ash Wednesday 1962 nor'easter

Source: NJ.com

11

Ortley Beach, NJ November 17, 2012

Source: Ocean County Police Blotter

Severe damage to infrastructure, mass transit and the highway system On average, 30 40 feet of beach lost along the coast. (Associated Press 2012) 72,000 buildings in New Jersey impacted by the storm (FEMA 2012) 500 structures destroyed 5,000 structures suffered major damage 24,000 structures suffered minor damage Estimated $29.4 billion in physical economic damage according to Governor Chris Christie's office Projected to rise in the coming months as full impact on economy is revealed (tourism, real estate prices) Insured losses in New Jersey estimated around $4 billion (PCS) Total NFIP losses are estimated at approximately $12 billion (Business Insurance 2012)

12

Sandy's storm tide ranged from 8 14.3 feet in the NY/NJ metro area Sea level at the Battery has increased 10 15 inches in the last 100 years This sea level rise, thought to be half natural and half anthropogenic, exacerbated Sandy's storm surge A category 3 hurricane striking the NJ coast TODAY at high tide would bring a storm tide between 10 and 25 feet With another 1 2 feet of anthropogenic sea level rise projected to occur by 2050, another storm less intense than Sandy will be able to generate higher storm tides by mid-century
Source: NOAA/NHC

1,

2011 &tate Ha-ard Miti'ation Plan

U)date due .)ril 2014

20 /"ulti01uri dictional2 county3ide )lan , 3it# "unici)al )artici)ation Handful of "unici)al )lan

For3ard0 Loo5in' !nte'rated

4 (i 5 include ea le$el ri e 4 &trate'ic 6 tar'et area for retreat, tren't#enin'

4 7ot 1u t e"er'ency "ana'e"ent 4 Pre$ent8 t#rou'# land u e )lan 9 re'ulation , infra tructure

!")le"ented

4 !n$ol$e "unici)alitie in e$ery te) 4 Lin5 u)dated )lan to )endin'

Sea Level Rise Projections for MD /T#e inde)endent, &cientific re)ort reco""end t#at i it i )rudent to )lan for ea le$el to be 2%1 feet #i'#er in 20:0 alon' Maryland; #oreline

7ational Di a ter (eco$ery Fra"e3or5

4 T#e &tor"
&i'nificant c#aracteri t ic of Hurricane &andy< 7ational, re'ional and local i")act <
Peo)le, )ro)erty and critical natural and built infra tructur e

4 The Exposure

Ho3 did t#ey react<

4 The Consequences

4 The Performance

."erica #a c#o en to en1oy t#e i'nificant cultural, recreational and econo"ic benefit of li$in' on t#e "id0.tlantic coa t, and #a been 3illin' to u))ort t#e lo e incurred by natural di a ter % Ho3 do future benefit co")are to t#e econo"ic ri 5 of natural di a ter < Ho3 do 3e =uantify t#e re ilience of t#e coa tal infra tructure< >#at con titute a re ilient co""unity< Ho3 to en#ance t#e re ilience of t#e coa tal infra tructure and t#e co""unitie t#at 'enerate ocietal benefit and re"ain e?)o ed to "a1or tor" <

Cutter @200AB2

FEMAs Best Available Data

Digital Coast Resilience Data and Tools

Coastal County Snapshots C-CAP Land Cover Atlas Coastal Lidar SLR and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer ENOW

http://csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/

333%7CFloodMa))er%or'

Plan for t#e Future

333%Pre)areDourCo""unity% or'

The image cannot be display ed. Your computer may not hav e enough memory to open the image, or the image may hav e been corrupted. Restart y our computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, y ou may hav e to delete the image and then insert it again.

Resilience

Date .u'u t 2011 October 2011 7o$e"ber 2011 Culy 2012 Culy 2012 October 2012

Event Tro)ical &tor" !rene +arly &no3 >ind tor" >ildfire Derec#o

Region Mid0.tlantic

Regional Outages ,,200,000

PSE ! Outages AE2,000 F,E,000

7e3 +n'land ,,000,000 California California, Colorado Mid0.tlantic 400,000 2,000,000 4,200,000 A,100,000

&u)er tor" &andy 7ort#ea t, Mid0.tlantic

2,000,000

31

Cu to"er and +=ui)"ent

1%GA "illion Cu to"er i")acted G0H lo t )o3er durin' t#e e$ent 14 &3itc#in' &tation affected 6 ,,H E too5 tor" da"a'e, F Out, 1 Bu &ection Failure :1 tran "i ion line affected 6 ,,H GF P&+9I &ub tation affected 6 ,GH 20 too5 tor" da"a'e, EF Out

Plannin' i""ediately 3a focu ed on )rioriti-in' tran "i ion line to be reener'i-ed to re tore 3itc#in' and ub tation 3it# t#e lar'e t cu to"er count >or5 be'an i""ediately after tor" ur'e receded at t#e tation and once 3ind 'u t dro))ed belo3 40 ")# in t#e di$i ion Current e ti"ate of t#e co t a ociated 3it# t#e re toration i bet3een J2:0 0 J,00 "illion

32

P&+9I filed it Energ" Strong Pro'ra" 3it# t#e 7CBPU on February 20t# , 201,% Pro)o al 0 J,%G billion in in$e t"ent o$er t#e ne?t 10 year to "a?i"i-e our ability to re )ond to and reco$er fro" future e$ere 3eat#er e$ent t#rou'# y te" #ardenin' and re iliency "ea ure % Pro)o al addre e bot# electric and natural 'a y te" i")ro$e"ent
33

Ho3 "i'#t ri 50related )rinci)le contribute to t#e de$elo)"ent of de i'n tandard for coa tal ri 50 reduction )ro1ect <

Ho3 "i'#t ri 50related )rinci)le increa e t#e ability of co""unitie to )re)are for coa tal tor" , and ad1u t to c#an'in' coa tal dyna"ic , ea le$el ri e< >#at 'eneral )rinci)le "i'#t be u ed to 'uide future in$e t"ent in U%&% coa tal ri 5 reduction<

Call for Resilience Funding Authorities for Multijurisdictional Infrastructure Needs Financial Support for Lost Local Community Tax Dollars Financing Assistance Directed at Low Income Households and Small Businesses Cost/Benefit and Zoning Overlays Transition, Impact (fail gracefully), Design transformation, Receiving