Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
CHAPTER 3
Section 3-1
0,1,2,...,1000
3-1.
The range of X is
3-2.
3-3.
3-4.
3-5.
The range of X is
selections.
1,2,...,491. Because 490 parts are conforming, a nonconforming part must be selected in 491
3-6.
3-7.
The range of X is conveniently modeled as all nonnegative integers. That is, the range of X is 0,12
, ,...
3-8.
The range of X is conveniently modeled as all nonnegative integers. That is, the range of X is 0,12
, ,...
3-9.
The range of X is
3-10.
The possible totals for two orders are 1/8 + 1/8 = 1/4, 1/8 + 1/4 = 3/8, 1/8 + 3/8 = 1/2, 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2,
1/4 + 3/8 = 5/8, 3/8 + 3/8 = 6/8.
1 3 1 5 6
Therefore the range of X is , , , ,
4 8 2 8 8
3-11.
The range of X is
0,1,2,...,15
{0,1,2,,10000}
Section 3-2
3-14.
f X (0) P( X 0) 1 / 6 1 / 6 1 / 3
f X (1.5) P( X 1.5) 1 / 3
f X (2) 1 / 6
f X (3) 1 / 6
a) P(X = 1.5) = 1/3
b) P(0.5< X < 2.7) = P(X = 1.5) +P(X = 2) = 1/3 + 1/6 = 1/2
c) P(X > 3) = 0
d) P(0 X 2) P( X 0) P( X 1.5) 1/ 3 1/ 3 2 / 3
e) P(X = 0 or X = 2) = 1/3 + 1/6 = 1/2
3-15.
All probabilities are greater than or equal to zero and sum to one.
a) P(X 2)=1/8 + 2/8 + 2/8 + 2/8 + 1/8 = 1
b) P(X > - 2) = 2/8 + 2/8 + 2/8 + 1/8 = 7/8
3-1
All probabilities are greater than or equal to zero and sum to one.
a) P(X 1)=P(X=1)=0.5714
b) P(X>1)= 1-P(X=1)=1-0.5714=0.4286
c) P(2<X<6)=P(X=3)=0.1429
d) P(X1 or X>1)= P(X=1)+ P(X=2)+P(X=3)=1
3-17.
3-18.
3-19.
3-20.
3-21.
3-22.
X: the number of computers that vote for a left roll when a right roll is appropriate.
p=0.0001.
P(X=0)=(1-p)4=0.99994=0.9996
P(X=1)=4*(1-p)3p=4*0.999930.0001=0.0003999
P(X=2)=C42(1-p)2p2=5.999*10-8
P(X=3)=C43(1-p)1p3=3.9996*10-12
P(X=4)=C40(1-p)0p4=1*10-16
3-23.
3-24.
3-25.
P(X = 15 million) = 0.6, P(X = 5 million) = 0.3, P(X = -0.5 million) = 0.1
3-26.
3-27.
3-2
X = final temperature
P(X=266) = 48/200 = 0.24
P(X=271) = 60/200 = 0.30
P(X=274) = 92/200 = 0.46
x 266
x 271
x 274
0.24,
f ( x) 0.30,
0.46,
3.29.
0.038,
0.102,
0.172,
0.204,
0.174,
f ( x) 0.124,
0.080,
0.036,
0.028,
0.022,
0.020,
3.30.
x 1
x2
x3
x4
x5
x6
x7
x8
x9
x 10
x 15
0.05,
0.25,
f ( x) 0.35,
0.20,
0.15,
x 1.5
x3
x 4.5
x5
x7
3-3
3.31.
0.005,
0.003,
0.045,
f ( x)
0.370,
0.151,
0.426,
x 217
x 218
x 231
x 255
x 267
x 317
Section 3-3
3-32.
x0
0,
1 / 3 0 x 1.5
F ( x) 2 / 3 1.5 x 2
5 / 6 2 x 3
1
3 x
f X (0) P( X 0) 1 / 6 1 / 6 1 / 3
where
f X (1.5) P( X 1.5) 1 / 3
f X (2) 1 / 6
f X (3) 1 / 6
3-33.
x 2
0,
1 / 8 2 x 1
3 / 8 1 x 0
F ( x)
0 x 1
5 / 8
7 / 8
1 x 2
2 x
1
f X (2) 1 / 8
f X (1) 2 / 8
where
f X ( 0) 2 / 8
f X (1) 2 / 8
f X ( 2) 1 / 8
0
x 1
4 7 1 x 2
F(x)
6 7 2 x 3
3 x
1
a)
b)
c)
d)
3-4
3-35.
x0
0,
0.008, 0 x 1
F ( x) 0.104, 1 x 2
0.488, 2 x 3
1,
3 x
.
f (0) 0.2 3 0.008,
f (1) 3(0.2)(0.2)(0.8) 0.096,
f (2) 3(0.2)(0.8)(0.8) 0.384,
f (3) (0.8) 3 0.512,
3-36.
.
x0
0,
f (0) 0.9999 4 0.9996,
0.9996, 0 x 1
x 10
0,
0.2, 10 x 25
F ( x)
0.5, 25 x 50
1,
50 x
where P(X = 50 million) = 0.5, P(X = 25 million) = 0.3, P(X = 10 million) = 0.2
3-38.
x 1
0,
0.1, 1 x 5
F ( x)
0.7, 5 x 10
1,
10 x
where P(X = 10 million) = 0.3, P(X = 5 million) = 0.6, P(X = 1 million) = 0.1
3-39.
The sum of the probabilities is 1 and all probabilities are greater than or equal to zero;
pmf: f(1) = 0.5, f(3) = 0.5
3-5
a) P(X 3) = 1
b) P(X 2) = 0.5
c) P(1 X 2) = P(X=1) = 0.5
d) P(X>2) = 1 P(X2) = 0.5
3-40.
The sum of the probabilities is 1 and all probabilities are greater than or equal to zero;
pmf: f(1) = 0.7, f(4) = 0.2, f(7) = 0.1
a) P(X 4) = 0.9
b) P(X > 7) = 0
c) P(X 5) = 0.9
d) P(X>4) = 0.1
e) P(X2) = 0.7
3-41.
The sum of the probabilities is 1 and all probabilities are greater than or equal to zero;
pmf: f(-10) = 0.25, f(30) = 0.5, f(50) = 0.25
a) P(X50) = 1
b) P(X40) = 0.75
c) P(40 X 60) = P(X=50)=0.25
d) P(X<0) = 0.25
e) P(0X<10) = 0
f) P(10<X<10) = 0
3-42.
The sum of the probabilities is 1 and all probabilities are greater than or equal to zero;
pmf: f1/8) = 0.2, f(1/4) = 0.7, f(3/8) = 0.1
a) P(X1/18) = 0
b) P(X1/4) = 0.9
c) P(X5/16) = 0.9
d) P(X>1/4) = 0.1
e) P(X1/2) = 1
3-43.
x 266
0,
0.24, 266 x 271
F ( x)
3-44.
3-6
0,
0.038,
0.140,
0.312,
0.516,
0.690,
F ( x)
0.814,
0.894,
0.930,
0.958,
0.980,
1
x 1
1 x 2
2 x3
3 x 4
4 x5
5 x 6
6 x7
7 x8
8 x9
9 x 10
10 x 15
15 x
Where P(X=1) = 0.038, P(X=2) = 0.102, P(X=3) = 0.172, P(X=4) = 0.204, P(X=5) = 0.174, P(X=6) = 0.124,
P(X=7) = 0.08, P(X=8) = 0.036, P(X=9) = 0.028, P(X=10) = 0.022, P(X=15) = 0.020
3-45.
0,
0.05,
0.30,
F ( x)
0.65,
0.85,
x 1.5
1.5 x 3
3 x 4.5
4.5 x 5
5 x7
7x
Where P(X=1.5) = 0.05, P(X= 3) = 0.25, P(X=4.5) = 0.35, P(X=5) = 0.20, P(X=7) = 0.15
3-46.
0,
0.005,
0.008,
F ( x) 0.053,
0.423,
0.574,
1,
x 217
217 x 218
218 x 231
231 x 255
255 x 267
267 x 317
317 x
Where P(X=255) = 0.370, P(X=218) = 0.003, P(X=317) = 0.426, P(X=231) = 0.045, P(X=267) = 0.151,
P(X=217) = 0.005
Section 3-4
3-7
3-47.
3 1
3 1
1
E ( X ) x x
4 x 0 4
4 x 1 4
3
The result uses a formula for the sum of an infinite series. The formula can be derived from the fact that the series to
h( a ) a x
x 1
a
1 a
with respect to a.
For the variance, another formula can be derived from the second derivative of h(a) with respect to a. Calculate from
this formula
3-8
3 2 1
3 2 1
5
x
4 x 0 4
4 x 1 4
9
5 1 4
2
2
Then V ( X ) E ( X ) E ( X )
9 9 9
E( X 2 )
3-53.
(a) F(0)=0.17
Nickel Charge: X
0
2
3
4
CDF
0.17
0.17+0.35=0.52
0.17+0.35+0.33=0.85
0.17+0.35+0.33+0.15=1
(b)E(X) = 0*0.17+2*0.35+3*0.33+4*0.15=2.29
4
V(X) =
f ( x )( x )
i 1
3-57.
= 1.5259
X = number of computers that vote for a left roll when a right roll is appropriate.
= E(X)=0*f(0)+1*f(1)+2*f(2)+3*f(3)+4*f(4)
3-9
= 0+0.0003999+2*5.999*10-8+3*3.9996*10-12+4*1*10-16= 0.0004
5
V(X)=
f ( x )( x )
i 1
3-58.
= 0.00039996
=E(X)=350*0.06+450*0.1+550*0.47+650*0.37=565
4
V(X)=
f ( x )( x )
i 1
=
3-59.
=6875
V (X ) =82.92
(a)
Transaction
Frequency
Selects: X
New order
43
23
Payment
44
4.2
=
Order
status
4
11.4
E(X) =
Delivery
5
130
Stock level
4
0
total
100
23*0.43+4.2*0.44+11.4*0.04+130*0.05+0*0.04 =18.694
5
V(X) =
f ( x )( x )
i 1
(b)
Transaction
New order
Payment
Order status
Delivery
Stock level
total
= 735.964
Frequency
43
44
4
5
4
100
f(X)
0.43
0.44
0.04
0.05
0.04
V ( X ) 27.1287
All operation: X
23+11+12=46
4.2+3+1+0.6=8.8
11.4+0.6=12
130+120+10=260
0+1=1
f(X)
0.43
0.44
0.04
0.05
0.04
= E(X) = 46*0.43+8.8*0.44+12*0.04+260*0.05+1*0.04=37.172
5
V(X) =
f ( x )( x )
i 1
3-60.
=2947.996
V ( X ) 54.2955
V(X) =
f ( x )( x )
i 1
3-61.
= 10.11
= E(X) = 1(0.038) + 2(0.102) + 3(0.172) + 4(0.204) + 5(0.174) + 6(0.124) + 7(0.08) + 8(0.036) + 9(0.028)
+ 10(0.022) +15(0.020)
= 4.808 hours
5
V(X) =
f ( x )( x )
i 1
3-62.
= 6.15
V(X) =
f ( x )( x )
i 1
= 1.9975
3-10
3-63.
V(X) =
f ( x )( x )
i 1
= 976.24
Section 3-5
3-64.
3-65.
3-66.
1 15 19
0.17 mm
100 2
2
1 (19 15 1) 1
2
V (X )
0.0002 mm
100
12
3-67.
1 1 1 1
E ( X ) 2 3 4 5 3.5
4 4 4 4
5
2 1
2 1
2 1
2 1
2
V ( X ) 2 3 4 5 3.5 1.25
4
4
4
4
4
3-68.
09
590 0.1
590.45 mm
2
(9 0 1)2 1
V ( X ) (0.1)2
0.0825
12
E(X) =
3-69.
mm2
a = 675, b = 700
a) = E(X) = (a+b)/2= 687.5
V(X) = [(b a +1)2 1]/12= 56.25
b) a = 75, b = 100
= E(X) = (a+b)/2 = 87.5
V(X) = [(b a + 1)2 1]/12= 56.25
The range of values is the same, so the mean shifts by the difference in the two minimums (or maximums) whereas the
variance does not change.
3-70.
X is a discrete random variable because it denotes the number of fields out of 28 that are in error.
However, X is not uniform because P(X = 0) P(X = 1).
3-71.
3-72.
3-11
E (cX ) cxf ( x) c xf ( x) cE ( X ) ,
x
V (cX ) (cx c ) f ( x) c 2 ( x ) 2 f ( x) cV ( X )
2
3-73.
3-74.
Section 3-6
3-75.
A binomial distribution is based on independent trials with two outcomes and a constant probability of success on each
trial.
a) reasonable
b) independence assumption not reasonable
c) The probability that the second component fails depends on the failure time of the first component. The binomial
distribution is not reasonable.
d) not independent trials with constant probability
e) probability of a correct answer not constant
f) reasonable
g) probability of finding a defect not constant
h) if the fills are independent with a constant probability of an underfill, then the binomial distribution for
the number packages underfilled is reasonable
i) because of the bursts, each trial (that consists of sending a bit) is not independent
j) not independent trials with constant probability
3-76.
3-77.
3-78.
a) P( X
10
5) 0.55 (0.5) 5 0.2461
5
10 0 10 10 1 9 10 2 8
b) P( X 2)
0 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 0.5 2 0.5 0.5
10
10
10
0.5 10(0.5) 45(0.5) 0.0547
10 9
10 10
1
0
c) P( X 9)
9 0.5 (0.5) 10 0.5 (0.5) 0.0107
d)
10
10
P(3 X 5) 0.530.57 0.540.56
3
4
120(0.5)10 210(0.5)10 0.3223
3-12
3-79.
10
5
5) 0.015 0.99 2.40 108
5
10
10
10
10
9
8
b) P( X 2) 0.010 0.99 0.011 0.99 0.012 0.99
0
1
2
0.9999
a) P( X
10
10
1
0
c) P( X 9) 0.019 0.99 0.0110 0.99 9.91 10 18
9
10
10
10
7
d ) P(3 X 5) 0.013 0.99 0.014 (0.99) 6 1.138 10 4
3
4
3-80.
0.25
0.20
f(x)
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0
10
np 10(0.5) 5
3-81.
prob of x
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0
10
P(X = 0) = 0.904, P(X = 1) = 0.091, P(X = 2) = 0.004, P(X = 3) = 0. P(X = 4) = 0 and so forth.
Distribution is skewed with E ( X ) np 10(0.01) 0.1
a) The most-likely value of X is 0.
3-13
x0
0
0.125 0 x 1
F ( x) 0.5 1 x 2
0.875 2 x 3
1
3 x
3-83.
where
1
1
f ( 0)
8
2
2
3
1 1
f (1) 3
8
2 2
2
1 3 3
f (2) 3
4 4 8
3
1
1
f (3)
8
4
x0
0
0.4219 0 x 1
F ( x) 0.8438 1 x 2
0.9844 2 x 3
1
3 x
3-84.
3-85.
where
27
3
f ( 0)
64
4
2
27
1 3
f (1) 3
64
4 4
2
1 3 9
f (2) 3
4 4 64
3
1
1
f (3)
64
4
0.01 0.99
40
0
40
0.6690 .
P(Z 1) 1 P(Z 0) 1
c) E ( X ) 10(0.4) 4
3-86.
0.6 0.4
10
0
10
0.9999
3-14
25
25
25
5
4
3
a) P( X 20) 0.2520 0.75 0.25210.75 0.2522 0.75
20
21
22
25
25
25
2
1
0
0.2523 0.75 0.2524 0.75 0.2525 0.75 9.677 1010
23
24
25
25
25
25
25
24
23
b) P( X 5) 0.250 0.75 0.251 0.75 0.252 0.75
0
1
2
25
25
22
21
0.253 0.75 0.254 0.75 0.2137
3
4
3-87.
b)
c)
P( X 4) 1 P( X 4) 1 0.630 0.370
a)
3-88.
P( X 1)
5
1
20
4
16
15 0
p (1 p)15 = 0.86
0
3-90.
V (X ) =2.179
n=20, p=0.13
(a) P(X = 3) =
20 3
p (1 p)17 =0.235
3
V (X ) = 1.504
3-15
(b) P(X=0) =
1E 09 0
p (1 p)1E 09 = 0
0
X 3 X 0.2 3 0198
.
153
.
a ) X is binomial with n = 20 and p = 0.01
P( X 1.53) P( X 2) 1 P( X 1)
1
20
20
1
19
P( X 1) 1 P( X 1)
1
0.04 0.96
20
0
20
19
c) Let Y denote the number of times X exceeds 1 in the next five samples.
Then, Y is binomial with n = 5 and p = 0.190 from part b.
P(Y 1) 1 P(Y 0) 1
The probability is 0.651 that at least one sample from the next five will contain more than one defective
3-93.
Let X denote the passengers with tickets that do not show up for the flight.
Then, X is binomial with n = 125 and p = 0.1.
a) P( X 5) 1 P( X 4)
125 0
125 1
125 2
125
124
123
0.1 0.9
0.1 0.9
0.1 0.9
0
1
2
1
125
125 4
122
121
0.13 0.9
0.1 0.9
3
4
0.9961
b) P( X 5) 1 P( X 5) 0.9886
3-94.
b)
0.02 0.98
P( X 2) 0.02 0.98
c)
P( X 5) 0.981
a)
3-95.
P( X 0)
100
0
100
0.133
102
0
102
0.02 0.98
102
1
101
0.02 0.98
102
2
.
a) Let N denote the number of people (out of five) that wait less than or equal to 4 hours.
b) Let N denote the number of people (out of five) that wait more than 4 hours.
c) Let N denote the number of people (out of five) that wait more than 4 hours.
3-16
100
0.666
3-96.
c)
3-97.
c)
d) E
3-98.
a)
b)
c)
d)
Section 3-7
3-99.
a)
3-100.
a)
3-17
3-101.
3-102.
a) E(X) = 4/0.2 = 20
19
(0.80)16 0.24 0.0436
3
18
15
4
c) P(X=19) =
3 (0.80) 0.2 0.0459
b) P(X=20) =
d) P(X=21) =
20
(0.80)17 0.24 0.0411
3
e) The most likely value for X should be near X. By trying several cases, the most likely value is x = 19.
3-103.
Let X denote the number of trials to obtain the first successful alignment.
Then X is a geometric random variable with p = 0.8
a)
b)
c)
3-104.
b)
3-105.
3)]
2
1 (1 0.1) 0 0.12 (1 0.1)1 0.12 1 (0.01 0.018) 0.972
1
1
E( X ) r / p 2 / 0.1 20
b)
P( X 5) 1 P( X 4) 1 [ P( X 1) P( X 2) P( X 3) P( X 4) P( X 5)]
1 [0.02 0.98(0.02) 0.982 (0.02) 0.983 (0.02) 0.983 (0.02) 0.984 (0.02)]
1 0.0961 0.9039
May also use the fact that P(X > 5) is the probability of no connections in 5 trials. That is,
5
P( X 5) 0.020 0.985 0.9039
0
c) E(X) = 1/0.02 = 50
3-106.
3-18
p=0.13
(a) p=9900/366=0.0000045
=E(X) = 1/p= 219877
V(X)= (1-p)/p2 = 4.938*1010
=
V (X ) =222222
(b) p=100/363=0.00214
=E(X) = 1/p= 467
V(X)= (1-p)/p2 = 217892.39
=
V (X ) =466.78
Based on the answers to (a) and (b) above, it is clearly more secure to use a 6 character password.
3-109.
p = 0.005 , r = 8
a.)
b).
P( X 8) 0.0058 3.91x10 19
1
E( X )
200 days
0.005
c) Mean number of days until all 8 computers fail. Now we use p=3.91x10-19
E (Y )
1
2.56 x1018 days
3.91x10 91
3-110.
3-111.
Let X denote the number of transactions until all computers have failed.
Then, X is negative binomial random variable with p = 10-8 and r = 3.
a) E(X) = 3 x 108
b) V(X) = [3(110-80]/(10-16) = 3.0 x 1016
3-112.
3-113.
x 1
(1 p) x r p r .
r 1
When r = 1, this reduces to f(x) = (1p)x-1p, which is the pdf of a geometric random variable.
Also, E(X) = r/p and V(X) = [r(1p)]/p2 reduce to E(X) = 1/p and V(X) = (1p)/p2, respectively.
3-114.
a)
3-19
b)
c)
d)
3-115.
3-116.
a)
b)
c)
d)
Section 3-8
3-117.
20(82160) 0.4191
a) P( X 1)
3921225
20 80
1
3
100
4
b)
4845(1) 0.001236
c) P( X 4)
3921225
20 80
4
0
100
4
K
20
4
0.8
N
100
N n
96
V ( X ) np(1 p)
4(0.2)(0.8) 0.6206
N 1
99
d) E ( X )
3-118.
np n
(4 16 15 14) / 6 0.4623
(20 19 18 17) / 24
1
b) P( X 4)
0.00021
(20 19 18 17) / 24
a)
P( X 1)
4
1
16
3
20
4
4 16
4 0
20
4
c)
3-20
P( X 2) P( X 0) P( X 1) P( X 2)
4
0
16
4
20
4
4
1
16
3
20
4
4
2
16
2
20
4
24
6
2
20191817
24
0.9866
0.5
0.4
P(x)
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0
24 12
/
x 3 x
36
3
Let X denote the number of men who carry the marker on the male chromosome for an increased risk for high blood
pressure. N=800, K=240 n=10
a) n=10
P( X 1)
0.1201
240 560
1
9
800
10
240!
560!
1!239! 9!551!
800!
10!790!
b) n=10
P( X 1) 1 P( X 1) 1 [ P( X 0) P( X 1)]
P( X 0)
240 560
0
10
800
10
240!
560!
0!240! 10!550!
800!
10!790!
0.0276
Let X denote the number of cards in the sample that are defective.
a)
3-21
P( X 1) 1 P( X 0)
P( X 0)
20 120
0
20
140
20
120!
20!100!
140!
20!120!
0.0356
P( X 1) 1 0.0356 0.9644
b)
P( X 1) 1 P( X 0)
P( X 0)
5
0
135
20
140
20
135!
20!115!
140!
20!120!
135!120!
0.4571
115!140!
P( X 1) 1 0.4571 0.5429
3-123.
N=300
(a) K = 243, n = 3, P(X = 1)=0.087
(b) P(X1) = 0.9934
(c) K = 26 + 13 = 39, P(X = 1)=0.297
(d) K = 300-18 = 282
P(X 1) = 0.9998
3-124.
Let X denote the count of the numbers in the state's sample that match those in the player's sample.
Then, X has a hypergeometric distribution with N = 40, n = 6, and K = 6.
40! 2.6110
6!34!
6 34 5.31 10
b) P( X 5)
0.00219
c) P( X 4)
a)
6
6
P( X 6)
6
5
6
4
34
0
40
6
34
1
40
6
34
2
40
6
40
6
d) Let Y denote the number of weeks needed to match all six numbers.
Then, Y has a geometric distribution with p =
1
3,838,380
and
3-125.
Let X denote the number of blades in the sample that are dull.
a)
P( X 1) 1 P( X 0)
P( X 0)
10
0
38
5
48
5
38!
5!33!
48!
5!43!
38!43!
0.2931
48!33!
P( X 1) 1 P( X 0) 0.7069
b) Let Y denote the number of days needed to replace the assembly.
P(Y = 3) =
P( X 0)
2
0
46
5
48
5
46!
5!41!
48!
5!43!
46!43!
0.8005
48!41!
3-22
On the second day, P( X 0)
6
0
42
5
48
5
42!
5!37!
48!
5!43!
42!43!
0.4968
48!37!
3-126.
4
1
4
4
The results from the binomial approximation are close to the probabilities obtained in Exercise 3-97.
c) Assume X has a binomial distribution with n = 4 and p = 0.2. Consequently, P(X = 1) and P(X = 4) are the same as
computed in part b. of this exercise. This binomial approximation is not as close to the true answer as the results
obtained in part (b) of this exercise.
d) From Exercise 3-102, X is approximately binomial with n = 20 and p = 20/140 = 1/7.
P( X 1) 1 P( X 0) 020 17
0 6 20
7
1 0.0458 0.9542
P( X 1) 1 P( X 0) 020 28
0 27 20
28
1 0.4832 0.5168
3-127.
a)
b)
c)
3-23
3-128.
a)
b)
c)
Section 3-9
3-129.
e 4 4 0
e 4 0.0183
0!
b) P( X 2) P( X 0) P( X 1) P( X 2)
a) P( X 0)
e 4 41 e 4 42
1!
2!
0.2381
e 4
e 4 4 4
01954
.
4!
e 4 48
0.0298
d) P( X 8)
8!
c) P( X 4)
3-130
a) P( X 0) e 0.4 0.6703
0.9921
1!
2!
e 0.4 (0.4) 4
0.000715
c) P( X 4)
4!
e 0.4 (0.4) 8
109
. 108
d) P( X 8)
8!
b) P( X 2) e 0.4
3-131.
3-132.
a) Let X denote the number of calls in one hour. Then, X is a Poisson random variable with = 10.
e 10 105
0.0378 .
5!
e 10 10
e 10 102 e 10 103
0.0103
b) P( X 3) e 10
1!
2!
3!
c) Let Y denote the number of calls in two hours. Then, Y is a Poisson random variable with
e 20 2015
0.0516
= 20. P(Y 15)
15!
d) Let W denote the number of calls in 30 minutes. Then W is a Poisson random variable with
e 5 55
01755
.
= 5. P(W 5)
5!
- x
3-133. =1, Poisson distribution. f(x) =e /x!
P( X 5)
3-24
P(X1)=0.999997
(d) P(X28.8) =1-P(X 28) = 0.00046. Unusual.
3-135.
3-136.
P( X 2)
e0.1 (0.1) 2
0.0045
2!
b) Let Y denote the number of flaws in 10 square meters of cloth. Then, Y is a Poisson random variable
with = 1.
P(Y 1)
e111
e1 0.3679
1!
c) Let W denote the number of flaws in 20 square meters of cloth. Then, W is a Poisson random variable
P(W 0) e2 0.1353
P(Y 2) 1 P(Y 1) 1 P(Y 0) P(Y 1)
with = 2.
d)
1 e 1 e 1
0.2642
3-137.
a)
b) P( X
2) e 0.2
e 0.2 0.2
e 0.2 (0.2) 2
0.9989
1!
2!
3-138.
P( X 0) e0.5 0.6065
b) Let Y denote the number of cars with no flaws,
10
P(Y 10) (0.6065)10 (0.3935) 0 0.0067
10
c) Let W denote the number of cars with surface flaws. Because the number of flaws has a Poisson distribution, the
occurrences of surface flaws in cars are independent events with constant probability. From part (a), the probability a
car contains surface flaws is 10.6065 = 0.3935. Consequently, W is binomial with n = 10 and p = 0.3935.
3-25
10
P(W 0) (0.3935) 0 (0.6065)10 0.0067
0
10
P(W 1) (0.3935)1 (0.6065)9 0.0437
1
P(W 1) 0.0067 0.0437 0.0504
3-140.
a) Let X denote the failures in 8 hours. Then, X has a Poisson distribution with = 0.16.
P( X 0) e0.16 0.8521
b) Let Y denote the number of failure in 24 hours. Then, Y has a Poisson distribution with = 0.48.
a)
b)
c)
3-142.
a)
b)
3-143.
E( X )
1 1 1 1 3 1 1
,
8 3 4 3 8 3 4
2
3-144.
1 1 1 1 3 1 1
V ( X ) 0.0104
8 3 4 3 8 3 4
1000
1
999
a) P( X 1)
1 0.001 (0.999) 0.3681
1000
0.0010 0.999999 0.6319
b) P( X 1) 1 P( X 0) 1
0
1000
1000
1000
0.0010 0.9991000
0.0011 0.999999
0.0012 0.999998
c) P( X 2)
0
1
2
0.9198
d) E ( X ) 1000(0.001) 1
V ( X ) 1000(0.001)(0.999) 0.999
3-145.
3-26
50
50
50
50
49
48
2) 0.10 0.9 0.11 0.9 0.12 0.9 0.112
0
1
2
50 49
50 50
1
0
48
c) P( X 49)
49 0.1 0.9 50 0.1 0.9 4.51 10
b) P( X
3-146.
12 0
12
p (1 p)12 - p 1 (1 p)14 =0.0062
0
1
(b) P(X>1)=1-P(X1)= 1-
3-147.
3-148.
V (X ) = 0.3447
(b)
(0.5)12 0.000244
C126 (0.5)6 (0.5)6 = 0.2256
(c)
(a)
V (X ) =0.995
3-150.
Let X denote the number of attempts needed to obtain a calibration that conforms to specifications.
Then, X is geometric with p = 0.6.
P(X 3) = P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) = 0.6 + 0.4(0.6) + 0.4 2(0.6) = 0.936.
3-151.
Let X denote the number of fills needed to detect three underweight packages.
Then, X is a negative binomial random variable with p = 0.001 and r = 3.
a) E(X) = 3/0.001 = 3000
b) V(X) = [3(0.999)/0.0012] = 2997000. Therefore, X = 1731.18
3-152.
3-153.
(a) =6*0.5=3.
3-27
P(X=0) = 0.0498
(b) P(X3)=0.5768
(c) P(Xx) 0.9, x=5
(d) 2= =6. Not appropriate.
3-154.
Let X denote the number of totes in the sample that do not conform to purity requirements. Then, X has a
hypergeometric distribution with N = 15, n = 3, and K = 2.
2 13
0 3
13!12!
P( X 1) 1 P( X 0) 1 1
0.3714
15
10!15!
3
3-155.
Let X denote the number of calls that are answered in 30 seconds or less.
Then, X is a binomial random variable with p = 0.75.
a) P(X = 9) =
10
(0.75)9 (0.25)1 0.1877
9
20
20
20
(0.75) 16 (0.25) 4 (0.75) 17 (0.25) 3 (0.75) 18 (0.25) 2
16
17
18
20
20
(0.75) 19 (0.25) 1 (0.75) 20 (0.25) 0 0.4148
19
20
c) E(X) = 20(0.75) = 15
3-156.
Let Y denote the number of calls needed to obtain an answer in less than 30 seconds.
a) P(Y 4) (1 0.75)
b) E(Y) = 1/p = 1/0.75 = 4/3
3-157.
3-158.
Let W denote the number of calls needed to obtain two answers in less than 30 seconds.
Then, W has a negative binomial distribution with p = 0.75.
5
a) P(W=6) = (0.25)4 (0.75)2 0.0110
1
b) E(W) = r/p = 2/0.75 = 8/3
a) Let X denote the number of messages sent in one hour.
P( X 5)
e 5 55
0.1755
5!
e 7.5 (7.5)10
P(Y 10)
0.0858
10!
c) Let W denote the number of messages sent in one-half hour.
Then, W is a Poisson random variable with = 2.5.
3-159.
3-160.
3-28
P(Y 3) e 1
0.9810
1!
2!
3!
3-161.
Let X denote the number of individuals that recover in one week. Assume the individuals are independent.
Then, X is a binomial random variable with n = 20 and p = 0.1.
P(X 4) = 1 P(X 3) = 1 0.8670 = 0.1330.
3-162.
a.) P(X=1) = 0 , P(X=2) = 0.0025, P(X=3) = 0.01, P(X=4) = 0.03, P(X=5) = 0.065
P(X=6) = 0.13, P(X=7) = 0.18, P(X=8) = 0.2225, P(X=9) = 0.2, P(X=10) = 0.16
b.) P(X=1) = 0.0025, P(X=1.5) = 0.01, P(X=2) = 0.03, P(X=2.5) = 0.065, P(X=3) = 0.13
P(X=3.5) = 0.18, P(X=4) = 0.2225, P(X=4.5) = 0.2, P(X=5) = 0.16
3-163.
3-164.
Here n assemblies are checked. Let X denote the number of defective assemblies.
If P(X 1) 0.95, then P(X=0) 0.05. Now,
n
(0.01) 0 (0.99) n 99 n
0
n(ln(0.99)) ln(0.05)
ln(0.05)
n
298.07
ln(0.95)
P(X=0) =
3-165.
3-166.
Let X denote the number of products that fail during the warranty period. Assume the units are
independent. Then, X is a binomial random variable with n = 500 and p = 0.02.
a) P(X = 0) =
500
b) E(X) = 500(0.02) = 10
c) P(X >2) = 1 P(X 2) = 0.9995
3-167.
3-168.
3-169.
x
f(x)
2
0.2
5.7
0.3
3-29
6.5
0.3
8.5
0.2
3-170.
Let X and Y denote the number of bolts in the sample from supplier 1 and 2, respectively.
Then, X is a hypergeometric random variable with N = 100, n = 4, and K = 30.
Also, Y is a hypergeometric random variable with N = 100, n = 4, and K = 70.
a) P(X=4 or Y=4) = P(X = 4) + P(Y = 4)
30 70 30 70
4 0
0 4
100
100
4
4
0.2408
30 70 30 70
3 1
1 3
0.4913
100
3-171.
Let X denote the number of errors in a sector. Then, X is a Poisson random variable with = 0.32768.
a) P(X>1) = 1 P(X1) = 1 e-0.32768 e-0.32768(0.32768) = 0.0433
b) Let Y denote the number of sectors until an error is found.
Then, Y is a geometric random variable and P = P(X 1) = 1 P(X=0) = 1 e-0.32768 = 0.2794
E(Y) = 1/p = 3.58
3-172.
Let X denote the number of orders placed in a week in a city of 800,000 people.
Then X is a Poisson random variable with = 0.25(8) = 2.
a) P(X 3) = 1 P(X 2) = 1 [e-2 + e-2(2) + (e-222)/2!] = 1 0.6767 = 0.3233.
b) Let Y denote the number of orders in 2 weeks. Then, Y is a Poisson random variable with = 4, and
P(Y>2) =1- P(Y 2) = e-4 + (e-441)/1!+ (e-442)/2! =1 - [0.01832+0.07326+0.1465] = 0.7619.
3-173.
125 375
0
5
5
125 375
1
4
5
125 375
2
3
7750(8718875) 0.2647
f X (2)
2.5524 E11
500
3-30
125 375
3 2 317750(70125)
f X (3)
0.0873
2.5524 E11
500
5
125 375
4 1 9691375(375)
f X (4)
0.01424
2.5524 E11
500
5
125 375
5 0 2.3453E8
f X (5)
0.00092
2.5524 E11
500
5
b)
x
f(x)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.0546 0.1866 0.2837 0.2528 0.1463 0.0574 0.0155 0.0028 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000
3-174.
Let X denote the number of totes in the sample that exceed the moisture content.
Then X is a binomial random variable with n = 30. We are to determine p.
If P(X 1) = 0.9, then P(X = 0) = 0.1. Then
30 0
( p) (1 p)30 0.1 , giving 30ln(1p) = ln(0.1),
0
3-175.
Let t denote an interval of time in hours and let X denote the number of messages that arrive in time t.
Then, X is a Poisson random variable with = 10t.
Then, P(X=0) = 0.9 and e-10t = 0.9, resulting in t = 0.0105 hours = 37.8 seconds
c)
50
50
P(V 2) 0.0198 0 (.9802) 50 0.01981 (0.9802) 49
0
1
50
0.0198 2 (0.9802) 48 0.9234
2
3-31
n!
px(1-p)n-x
r!n r !
The probability of the event can be expressed as p = /n and the probability mass function can be written as:
n!
[/n]x[1 (/n)]n-x
x!n x !
n (n 1) (n 2) (n 3)...... (n x 1) x
P(X=x)
(1 (/n))n-x
x
x!
n
P(X=x) =
n (n 1) (n 2) (n 3)...... (n x 1)
n
1 - n n e
Thus,
x
P(X=x) =
e
x!
The distribution of the probability associated with this process is known as the Poisson distribution and we
can express the probability mass function as:
e x
f(x) =
x!
3-178.
Show that
i 1
To begin,
(1 p)
i 1
i 1
p
p
p (1 p)i 1
1
1 (1 p) p
i 1
3-179.
3-32
i
i 1
i 1
(b a 1)
(b a b a )
b(b 1) (a 1)a
2
2
(b a 1)
(b a 1)
(b a)(b a 1)
(b a 1)
(b a )
2
b
b 2
(b a 1)(b a ) 2
i i (b a) i
4
i a
i a
i a
V (X )
b a 1
b a 1
2
b(b 1)(2b 1) (a 1)a (2a 1)
b(b 1) (a 1)a (b a 1)(b a )
(b a )
6
6
2
4
b a 1
2
(b a 1) 1
12
b
3-180.
b a 2
2
x 1
x 1
d x
q
x 1 dq
E ( X ) x(1 p ) x 1 p p xq x 1 p
p
d x
d q
q p
dq x 1
dq 1 q
1
p 2
p
1(1 q) q (1)
p
(1 q ) 2
1
p
3-33
V ( X ) ( x 1p ) 2 (1 p) x 1 p px 2 2 x
x 1
x 1
p x 2 q x 1 2 xq x 1
x 1
x 1
p x 2 q x 1
x 1
2
p2
1
p
1
p
(1 p)
x 1
x 1
x 1
1
p2
p x 2 q x 1
x 1
1
p2
p dqd q 2q 2 3q 3 ...
1
p2
p dqd q (1 2q 3q 2 ...)
1
p2
2(1 p) p 1 (1 p) q
p2
p2
p2
1
p2
3-181.
Let X = number of passengers with a reserved seat who arrive for the flight,
n = number of seat reservations, p = probability that a ticketed passenger arrives for the flight.
a) In this part we determine n such that P(X 120) 0.9. By testing for n in Minitab the minimum value is n =131.
b) In this part we determine n such that P(X > 120) 0.10 which is equivalent to
1 P(X 120) 0.10 or 0.90 P(X 120).
By testing for n in Minitab the solution is n = 123.
c) One possible answer follows. If the airline is most concerned with losing customers due to over-booking, they
should only sell 123 tickets for this flight. The probability of over-booking is then at most 10%. If the airline is most
concerned with having a full flight, they should sell 131 tickets for this flight. The chance the flight is full is then at
least 90%. These calculations assume customers arrive independently and groups of people that arrive (or do not arrive)
together for travel make the analysis more complicated.
3-182.
n
3-183.
p (1 p)
n
0
ln 0.10
229.11 . Therefore, n = 230 is required
ln(1 p)
If the lot size is small, 10% of the lot might be insufficient to detect nonconforming product. For example, if the lot size
is 10, then a sample of size one has a probability of only 0.2 of detecting a nonconforming product in a lot that is 20%
nonconforming.
If the lot size is large, 10% of the lot might be a larger sample size than is practical or necessary. For example, if the
lot size is 5000, then a sample of 500 is required. Furthermore, the binomial approximation to the hypergeometric
distribution can be used to show the following. If 5% of the lot of size 5000 is nonconforming, then the probability of
12
zero nonconforming products in the sample is approximately 7 10 . Using a sample of 100, the same probability
is still only 0.0059. The sample of size 500 might be much larger than is needed.
3-34
3-184.
Let X denote the number of acceptable components. Then, X has a binomial distribution with p = 0.98 and
n is to be determined such that P( X 100) 0.95 .
n
P( X 100)
102
0.666
103
0.848
104
0.942
105
0.981
Therefore, 105 components are needed.
0 x 1000
1000 x 2000
2000 x 3000
3000 x
Profit
0.125 x
0.075 x + 50
200
-0.05 x + 350
The bakery can make anywhere from 2000 to 3000 and earn the same profit.
3-35
Max. profit
$ 125 at x = 1000
$ 200 at x = 2000
$200 at x = 3000
$200 at x = 3000