201 N Union Street, Suite 410 Alexandria, Virginia 22314 (703) 684-6688 (office) (703) 627-7159 (cell) dsackett@tarrance.

com

THE TARRANCE GROUP

www.tarrance.com

MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM:

AMERICAN ACTION NETWORK DAVE SACKETT NICHOLAS THOMPSON

KEY FINDINGS FROM A NATIONAL SURVEY OF 65+ VOTERS

RE: DATE:

FEBRUARY 26, 2014 ________________________________________________________________________

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present American Action Network with the key findings from a national survey of 65+ voters. These key findings are based on telephone interviews with N=806 likely 65+ registered voters throughout the country. Responses to this survey were gathered February 16-20, 2014 and the margin of error associated with a sample of this type is + 3.5% in 95 out of 100 cases. KEY FINDINGS President Obamas job approval ratings among seniors are a net -13 points weaker than they are among the electorate as a whole. He stands with a thirty-six percent (36%) approve and fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove. Both Medicare (86% favorable) and Medicare Part D (73% favorable) are very well thought of by seniors, and only 9% have unfavorable impressions of either of these programs. Medicare Advantage is not as quite as well known (88% name ID), with forty-eight percent (48%) having a favorable impression of Medicare Advantage, while only 21% have an unfavorable impression. Among the 26% of respondents on a private plan (Medicare Advantage), the favorable rating for Medicare Advantage rises to 67%. Among those who have Medicare Part D and a private plan, the favorable rating for Medicare Advantage is fully seventy-one percent (71%.) SENIORS VIEWS ON THE ACA The view of the ACA among seniors is a net -9 points worse than the electorate as a whole. Only thirty-five percent (35%) of seniors have a positive view of the ACA (-4 points lower than the mean average for the nation as a whole) and fifty-seven percent (57%) have a negative view (+5 points higher than national mean average.) Among Independents, only 22% approve of the ACA, while 63% disapprove. In terms of the biggest concern that 65+ voters have about the ACA, fifteen percent (15%) are most worried about higher premiums, while 11% are most concerned about being able to find/keep a

The Tarrance Group AAN 65+ Voters National (February, 2014)

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doctor, and the IRS oversight and Medicare cuts are each cited as the biggest concern among 10% of 65+ voters. Only 15% of seniors indicate they believe that they have benefited from the ACA, while 49% believe it has had no impact on them, and 27% believe that they have been negatively impacted by the ACA. There are 9% who are unsure. By a margin of 42% to 37%, seniors say they trust Republicans in Congress more than President Obama and Democrats in Congress on the issue of healthcare. Another 16% say they trust neither, while 5% are unsure. This 5-point margin is especially remarkable given the low ratings given to Republicans and Congress in other publicly available polls. IMPLICATIONS OF NEW MEDICARE ADVANTAGE CUTS A solid majority of 65+ voters indicate that they agree with the Republican view on cutting Medicare Advantage, and only twenty-five percent (25%) agree with the perspective offered by the Obama Administration and congressional Democrats:
Some people say that the Obama Administration is correct to cut Medicare Advantage payment rates. Medicare Advantage plans are overpaid by the federal government, and these plans are gouging taxpayers. This will force them to better control costs. Other people say that the Obama Administration is wrong to cut Medicare Advantage. It will result in higher costs, fewer benefits, and loss of healthcare choices for seniors, and the Obama Administration is only making these cuts to help pay for ObamaCare. "Which viewpoint comes closest to your own?" Correct decision ...................................................... 25% Wrong decision ........................................................ 54%

Among seniors who say they have a private plan like Medicare Advantage as their health insurance
coverage, a full 63% say that cutting Medicare Advantage is the wrong decision, and just 22% believe it is correct. Approximately sixty percent (60%) of 65+ voters indicate they would be less likely to vote to re-elect a Democrat Member of Congress who supported the passage of the ACA, despite the fact that it cut Medicare Advantage by $156 billion. A multiple regression analysis, testing what messages have the highest propensity to move voters opinions, found two particularly effective messages related to the new Medicare Advantage cuts:
Message Test 27. A Democratic candidate for Congress who supports ObamaCares additional cuts to Medicare Advantage, despite the fact that nearly 15 million seniors rely on Medicare Advantage for their healthcare coverage. 32. More than 500,000 seniors have already had their Medicare Advantage plans cancelled, and millions more could lose their coverage next year due to cuts in ObamaCare. A Democratic Candidate still supports the law, and has voted to keep it in place without any changes. Beta -.136

-.130

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The Tarrance Group AAN 65+ Voters National (February, 2014)

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