CATASTROPE PLAN

What we can do in case of a general emergency

 CATASTROPE PLAN
-WHAT WE CAN DO IN CASE OF A GENERAL EMERGENCY-

Table of Contents
ABSTRACT.........................................................................................................................4

Introduction..........................................................................................................................5
Definition of Catastrophe................................................................................................5
About the Logo...............................................................................................................5
Types of catastrophe......................................................................................................5
Catastrophe plan.................................................................................................................10
Forecast.........................................................................................................................11
Alarm signals................................................................................................................11
The Long Crisis scenario...................................................................................................13
Preparation....................................................................................................................16
know what to do during a disaster.....................................................................................21
General Supply Kit........................................................................................................24
Action.................................................................................................................................28
Short (one week)...........................................................................................................28
Medium (one Month)....................................................................................................28
Long (one Year)............................................................................................................28
Permanent (more Years)...............................................................................................29

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DOCUMENT INFORMATIONS
HISTORY
SNIP

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ABSTRACT
In the present historical situation of a globalized World with increasing complexity, the
possibility of emergency must be considered.

Having instruments for manage crises is the base to look at any future with optimism.

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Introduction
This document was created starting on 2005 to address in a rational way practical
questions related to a possible global failure, has been published on the forum
http://www.projectavalon.net. on September 2008.

Definition of Catastrophe
In this document we define a Catastrophe as:
“ a special Event involving an great amount of energy that break the daily life of
communities for a period of time. This provokes consequences that we consider
undesirableness“
The event can be a Environmental disasters (e.g. Earthquake, Epidemic, Famine, Flood,
Forest fire, Heat wave, Hurricanes, tropical cyclones, Tsunami), a Societal disasters
(e.g. Pandemics ...), Geopolitical (e.g. Wars), Economics (e.g. oil price shocks).

About the Logo

SNIP

Types of catastrophe
The following types of emergency are defined in the 2006 version of (1)

Economic Risks Likelihood Severity

China
• Short-term Base: Carefulmanagementof integrationintoglobaleconomy31
• Short-term Worst: Re-emergentprotectionismin therestof theworld,hittingChina's exports22
• Long-term Base: Successfulmodernizationand integration22
• Long-term Worst: Socialand economicdislocation23

US Current Account Deficit

• Short-term Base: Currentaccountdeficitcauses20%depreciationof US$ 23
• Short-term Worst: Currentaccountdeficitcauses40%depreciationof US$14 <=we are here
• Long-term Base: Gradual balancingof accounts33g
• Long-term Worst: Unsustainabledeficitsimpactgrowth24g

Hedge Funds
• Short-term Base: Fractionof start-up hedgefundsfail belowthreshold4Falls
• Short-term Worst: Individual largehedgefundsfail 21
• Long-term Base: Fractionof start-up hedgefundsfail 31
• Long-term Worst: Marketcrashhitsseveralfunds12

Oil Price Shock

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• Short-term Base: 12-monthspiketoUS$80/bl 43

• Short-term Worst: 12-monthspiketoUS$100/bl14 <=we are here
• Long-term Base: Supplyconstraintleadstogradual priceincrease12
• Long-term Worst: Steepersustainedpriceincreases23

Critical Information Infrastructure (CII)

• Short-term Base: Europeanpoweroutage32 <=we are here
• Short-term Worst: Transatlanticdatablackout13
• Long-term Base: Attackon IT infrastructure31
• Long-term Worst: Coordinatedextensiveattackson wirelessinfrastructureusingelectromagneticpulses13

Environmental Risks Likelihood Severity

Tropical Cyclones: North Atlantic Hurricane

● Short-term Base: Category3 hurricanehitsmodestlypopulatedarea 31
● Long-term Base: Severityand frequencyof stormsstaysat 2005level 31
● Long-termWorst: Severityand frequencyof storms increases23

Societal Risks Likelihood Severity

Pandemics
• Short-term Base: Pathogenicavian virus H5N1spreads,lowhuman mortality24
• Short-term Worst: Pathogenicavian virus H5N1spreads,high human mortality24
• Long-term Base: Pathogenicavian virus H5N1spreads,radicaladvancesin vaccinedevelopment22
• Long-term Worst: Pathogenicavian virus H5N1spreads,severalrecombinationsappear14

Developing World Disease: Spread of HIV/AIDS and TB Epidemics

• Short-term Base: Newinfectionsof 5min 200644
• Short-term Worst: Rapidgrowthin incidenceoutsidesub-Saharan Africa24
• Long-term Base: Incidenceflattens,deathsremain high 34g
• Long-term Worst: Incidenceflattensin sub-SaharanAfricabut expandsrapidlyelsewhere34

Liability Regimes
● Short-term Base: 10%capacitylossfor insurersUSinsurancecoststriple;3 1
● Short-term Worst: 25%capacityloss;suspensionof UShigh-risk insurance 22
● Long-term Base: Declineof insurance;riseof deep-pocketliabilityin Europeand US2 2
● Long-term Worst: Collapseof propertyand casualtyinsuranceindustry13

Regulation
● Short-term Base: Littlechangein regulationexpectations,or economicactivityFalls belowthreshold,4
● Short-term Worst: Regulatorypressures;rapiddecreasein corporateactivity3 2
● Long-term Base: CentristfuturesupportscommercialfreedomFalls belowthreshold4
● Long-term Worst: Populistrealignmentunderminescorporateactivity2 2

Corporate Governance
● Short-term Base: Onlysmall-scalegovernancefailuresbelowthreshold4 Falls
● Short-term Worst: Majorgovernancefailureunderminesconfidence2 2
● Long-term Base: Onlysmall-scalegovernancefailures3 Falls belowthreshold
● Long-term Worst: Majorcorporategovernancefailures32

Organized Crime: Counterfeiting

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● Short-term Base: Costsand benefitslargelymatched41g

● Short-term Worst: SharpeningUS/Chinadisputeon rulesof trade22
● Long-term Base: Risingdeathsfromcounterfeitmedicinesand underminingof publictrust33
● Long-term Worst: Increasedvulnerabilityof IT networksand aggregateGWPreductiongg14

Geopolitical Risks Likelihood Severity

Middle East Stability
• Short-term Base: Precariousstability31
• Short-term Worst: Escalatingviolence23g <=we are here
• Long-term Base: Precariousstability,structuralweaknessremains31
• Long-term Worst: Widespreadviolentconflict23
•
Hotspot: Iran
• Short-term Base: Continuationof conflictover nuclearprogramme 31 <=we are here
• Short-term Worst: Opennucleardefiance13
• Long-term Base: Nuclearcompromise31
• Long-term Worst: Aggressivenuclearposture23

Hotspot: Iraq
• Short-term Base: Tenuousstabilityand partial economicrecovery32
• Short-term Worst: Civil war 13 <=we are here
• Long-term Base: Tenuousstabilityand partial reconstructionof infrastructure22
• Long-term Worst: Disintegration23g

Hotspot: Saudi Arabia

• Short-term Base: Oil revenuespreservestatusquo31
• Short-term Worst: Increasedpressureon theKingdom'sgovernancestructure12<=we are here
• Long-term Base: Successfulbalancingof external and domesticchallenges21
• Long-term Worst: Stabilityof theKingdomseverelyundermined13

European Dislocation
• Short-term Base: Stagnationand reformresistance32g
• Short-term Worst: Economiccrisisin largememberstate22g <=forecast 2009
• Long-term Base: Gradual declineof economiccompetitiveness22
• Long-term Worst: Radicaleconomicand politicalupheaval in Europe32

Hotspot: Korea
• Short-term Base: Fragilestatusquopreserved21g
• Short-term Worst: NorthKoreatestsnuclearweapon13
• Long-term Base: NorthKorea’snuclearprogramme contained21
• Long-term Worst: NorthKorea's nucleartesttriggersarmsrace,internal disintegration23

International Terrorism
• Short-term Base: Attackscontinueat 2004-5frequencyand intensity41
• Short-term Worst: Simultaneousconventionalattacksworldwide14
• Long-term Base: Terrorismcontinuestobe a threat,yetis largelycontained31
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• Long-term Worst: Non-conventionalattackin majorcity24

Drawing 1: Major Types of risks and systemic relationship.

We arbitrary divide possible catastrophe in 4 time (the “period of time”) magnitude
groups:
● Short (around one week)
● Medium (around one Month)
● Long (around one Year)
● Enduring (more Years)

4 spacial (the “communities”) magnitude groups

● Regional
● National
● Continental
● World wide

so that we have 16 possible classes of catastrophes C1 ... C16 as shown in the table
below:

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Short Medium Long Enduring

Regional 1 2 3 4

National 5 6 7 8

Continental 9 10 11 12

world wide 13 14 15 16

Table 1: Catastrophe index

Notice that the number indicate the amount of energy - required to provoke/involved in -
the catastrophically event.
In a linked world processes of positive feedback can transform one catastrophe started in
from a class 1 to a class 16.

Example:
Taking a terroristic attack (class 1) as a reason The US decided to stop Iran nuclear
program by bombing the all nuclear plants (class 5). As a result the oil price spikes over
$150 (class 13).
This provoke a Major governance failure undermining confidence in capitalistic
system (class 14). Wallstreet breaks bringing the oil price to 200$. World economic
collapse (class 15). Enduring state of chaos (class 16).

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Catastrophe plan
This plan considers 3 steps:
● Forecast
● Preparation
● Action

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Forecast

Forecast is essential for successfully prepare and affront an emergency.

Social forecasting is still in infancy.

Because such instruments are high expensive not available to the general public new ones
are required.

● OBSERVATION
Observations including Home pages, catastrophe Bond, newspapers, Mailing list,
and books are the basis for all forecast and warning products issued by this
system. Quality, quantity, and timeliness of observations are critical for accurate
and timely forecasts and warnings.

● ANALYSIS
The various observations are checked for quality, analyzed, and put into a model.

● MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTERPRETATION

The model should take in the observations the alarm signals, and generate
predictions of possible catastrophe trends behavior . The model results are
consolidate as guidance for Meta community(Europe, North america) and local
community and for evaluation and use in the community forecast and warning
process.

● Forecast GENERATION
Once the coordination and collaboration process reaches group consensus, the
issuing group generate forecast and warning for release to the Key Project
members.

● Forecast Dissemination
Timely and reliable dissemination of forecasts and warnings is critical to the
protection of life and property. Key forecast Project members take care of create
communication chain for they projects.

Alarm signals
For each of the systems pains described in drawing 1 an alarm signal is defined:

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System Stress Alarm symptom

Oil price shock/energy supply ● Oil over 100 $

● wall street crash

fall in US$ ● 1 € > 1.5 $

● 1€>2$

Pandemics Over 50 death/week

Supply Chain failure shortage of basic wares in western

supermarket

Stagflation Inflaction over 10%

negative growt >= 1%

Intestate war ● Major conflict in middle east

Table 2: alarm symptom

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The Long Crisis scenario

The long crise scenario describes the most probable sequence of systemic failure.

1. The peak of oil is reach

2. the oil prices skyrocket
3. as result of the oil energy prices much companies are not able to drive business
and close the activities.
4. Word wide financial crash.
5. A period of Stagflation begins: a combination of high inflation and inflation.
6. High energy prices make the globalization to expensive: strategies begins to
concentrate on “core national business”. Retrenchment from globalization.
7. Companies that are high dependent from oil fail.
8. The economical crise produce unemployment that provokes internal tensions
(mass demonstrations).
9. The internal tension is outsourced. An external enemy is found (the terrorists, the
outsiders, the Arabs, the foreigners and minorities in general).
10. Repression. Democratic guaranties are suppressed. Every dissident become an
enemy.
11. Oil & resources war: to keep the control of resources states starts to fight each
others.
12. War boost the economy for a short term. In the middle term its consumes and
destroy more resources.
13. General Failure of the social structure.
14. Grid's Collapse. Electric energy No more generally available.

This process is an estimation of the possible sequence, not a prophecy.

Below an activity diagram that illustrates the above scenario.

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Illustration 1: long crise scenario

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Preparation

The most important thing that you can do is to be informed and prepared.
Disaster prevention includes both being prepared as well as reducing damages
(mitigation).
Disaster Prevention should include:
• Developing a Family Plan
• Creating a Disaster Supply Kit
• Having a Place to Go
• Securing your Home

• DEVELOP A FAMILY PLAN - Your family's plan should be based on your

vulnerability to the emergency. You should keep a written plan (like this
one) and share your plan with other friends or family.

• CREATE A DISASTER SUPPLY KIT - There are certain items you need to
have regardless of where you ride out a hurricane. The disaster supply kit
is a useful tool when you evacuate as well as making you as safe as
possible in your home.

• HAVING A PLACE TO GO – depending on the type of emergency you can

decide to leave your home. In this case is important to have a prepared
place.

• SECURE YOUR HOME - There are things that you can do to make your
home more secure and able to withstand an emergency or long period of
absence.

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The FAMILY PLAN

● Discuss the type of hazards that could affect your family. Prepare your
family to the emergency with a calm discussion.
● Decide what to do with pets

Emergency Training
● Do a practical training of the emergency.
● Simulate the different scenarios.

LOCAL Emergency C 1-4

● Know your home's vulnerability to physical attacks, storm surge,
flooding and wind.
● Locate a safe room or the safest areas in your home for each local hazard.
In certain circumstances the safest areas may not be your home but
within your community.

Escape routes C 5 +
● Determine escape routes from your home and places to meet with the
community. These should be measured in tens of Km rather than
hundreds of Km.
● Make sure that you have alternate travel options for evacuation in the
event of a pandemic and panic.
● Make a plan now for what to do with your pets if you need to evacuate.

Communication
● Use a radio (see below). Remember to replace its battery every 6 months.
Even better use a man power system.
● Have an out-of-state friend as a family con
● tact, so all your community have a single point of contact.
● Post emergency telephone numbers by your phones and make sure your
community know how and when to call emergency.

Legals
● Make sure that your identification papers (including photos) are up to date
so that you do not have problems at checkpoints. Make extra photos.
● Check your insurance coverage - flood damage is not usually covered by
homeowners insurance.
● Consider getting a passport.
● Stock non-perishable emergency supplies and a Disaster Supply Kit.

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Disaster inner Kit

● Take care of your own spiritual life so that you do not face a spiritual crisis
in the event of calamity, disease, death, and can focus on helping yourself and
others.

● Get a physical examination so that you know your current health.

● Get in good physical shape, be strong and well rested.

● Mend your social relationships so that you don’t have anything hanging and
you know how you can rely on and who you need to care for.

● Take First Aid and disaster preparedness classes.

● Be comfortable leading and commanding others. Practice interacting with

people as equals, submitting to the instructions of superiors, and commanding
others so they might likewise obey.

● Have what you would need so that you would feel that you are spending your
down-time meaningfully, such as books, musical instruments, art materials. Be
ready and able to entertain others.

● Tell your family what you know about the situation. Be honest but gentle.
Encourage children to talk about the coming disaster. Encourage them to ask
questions about the coming disaster.

EXPECT emotional REACTIONS

You won’t “act like yourself” for a while
Most people caught in a disaster usually feel confused. They may tremble, feel numb,
vomit or faint.
Immediately after the disaster they often feel bewildered, shocked, and relieved to be
alive.
These feelings and reactions are perfectly normal.
Later many survivors sleep poorly, have no appetite, are angry with those around
them, or panic at the slightest hint of a storm. Children might start thumb sucking or
bed wetting. These feelings and reactions are perfectly normal too.

How to get back on track

Here are some suggestions to help get yourself and your family back on track after the
disaster.
Talk about your feelings. Talk about what’s happened.
Encourage your children to express their feelings. They may want to do this by
drawing or playing instead of talking.
Understand that their feelings are real. Recognize that when you suffer a loss, you
may grieve. (Yes, you can grieve the loss of a wedding photo or your grandfather’s
favourite ring.) You may feel apathetic or angry. You may not sleep or eat well.
These are normal grief reactions. Do give yourself and your family permission to

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grieve and time to heal.

How to help your children

Children exposed to a disaster can experience a variety of intense emotional reactions
such as anxiety, fear, nervousness,stomachaches, loss of appetite and other reactions.
These are normal and temporary reactions to danger.
Parents can help relieve such reactions by taking their children’s fears seriously, by
reassuring them, giving them additional attention and hugging them.

A CHILD WHO FEELS AFRAID IS REALLY AFRAID

After a disaster, children are most afraid that:
• the event will happen again,
• someone will get hurt or injured,
• they will be separated from the family, or
• they will be left alone.

So comfort and reassure them.

Give them a real task to do, something that gets the family back on its feet.
Keep them with you, even if it seems easier to look for housing or help on your own.
At a time like this it’s
important for the whole family to stay together.

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DISASTER SUPPLY KIT

The disaster supply kit consist in material that you can make available in max 1
hour.
Every family member should have a small bag (back bag preferred).
This is the minimal kit.
See further chapter for a more complete one.

● Water -
1. at least 5 liters daily per person for 9 days at home.
2. at least 2 liters daily per person for 9 days if you decide to move.
3. Water filter

● Food - at least enough for 9 days

1. non-perishable packaged or canned food / juices
2. foods for infants or the elderly
3. snack foods
4. non-electric can opener
5. cooking tools / Gas
6. paper plates / plastic utensils

● FUEL: have a complete fill prepared in tanks.

● Outdoor set
○ Tent
○ sleep bag

● Clothing - seasonal / rain gear/ sturdy shoes

● First Aid Kit / Medicines / Prescription Drugs
○ Blankets / Pillows, etc.
● Special Items - for babies and the elderly
● Toiletries / Hygiene items / Moisture wipes

● Toys, Books and Games: one item each family component

● Important documents - in a waterproof container or watertight

resealable plastic bag
● insurance, medical records, bank account numbers, Social Security
card, etc.
● Keys
● Cash - Banks and ATMs may not be open or available for extended
periods
● Tools - keep a set with you during the emergency
● knives
● Flashlight / Batteries
● Radio - Battery operated
● Whistle -in case you need to attract someone’s attention
●
● Vehicle fuel tanks filled
● Pet care items

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know what to do during a disaster

HERE ARE SOME BASIC PROCEDURES FOR SPECIFIC DISASTERS that can happens during the next
time.

DURING A TORNADO
If you are in a building
Go to the basement immediately. If there isn’t one, crouch or lie flat (under heavy furniture) in an inner
hallway or small inner room or stairwell away from windows.
Stay away from large halls, arenas, shopping malls, etc. (their roofs could collapse).

If you are caught outside

If there is no shelter, lie down in a ditch or ravine, protecting your head.

If you are driving

Get out of and away from the car.
It could be blown through the air, or roll over on you.
Lie down as above.

DURING A POWER FAILURE

Turn the thermostat(s) down to minimum and turn off all appliances, electronic equipment and tools to
prevent injury, damage to equipment and fire. Power can also be restored more easily when the system
is not overloaded.
Use proper candleholders. Never leave lit candles unattended.

Home generators are handy for backup electricity for a while in case of an outage, but there are hazards
to
be aware of.
To operate a generator safely, follow the manufacturer’s instructions, and always:
• Ensure that the generator operates outdoors in wellventilated conditions, well away from doors or
windows.
• Connect lights and appliances directly to the generator. If extension cords must be used, ensure they
are properly rated,
Direct installation of a generator to an existing electrical system should only be done by a qualified
technician.

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Have a place to go

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Develop a family catastrophe preparedness plan before an actual emergency

Illustration 2: place and risks

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● If ordered to evacuate, do not wait or delay your departure.

If possible, leave before local officials or mass media issue an evacuation
order for your area.
Even a slight delay in starting your evacuation will result in significantly
longer travel times as traffic congestion worsens.
● Select an evacuation destination that is nearest to your home, or
at least minimize the distance over which you must travel in order
to reach your intended shelter location.
In choosing your destination, keep in mind that the hotels and other
sheltering options in most inland metropolitan areas are likely to be filled
very quickly in a large, national emergency evacuation event.

● If you decide to evacuate to another region, be prepared to wait in

traffic.
The large number of people in this region who must evacuate during a
catastrophe will probably cause massive delays and major congestion
along most designated evacuation routes;

the larger the emergency, the greater the probability of traffic jams and
extended travel times.

If possible, make arrangements to stay with the friend or relative who

resides closest to your home and who will not have to evacuate.

Discuss with your intended host the details of your family evacuation plan
well before the beginning.

● If a hotel or motel is your final intended destination during an

evacuation, make reservations before you leave.
Most hotel and motels will fill quickly once evacuations begin. The longer
you wait to make reservations, even if an official evacuation order has not
been issued for your area or county, the less likely you are to find
hotel/motel room vacancies, especially along highways and in major
metropolitan areas.

● If you are unable to stay with friends or family and no

hotels/motels rooms are available, then as a last resort go to a
shelter.
Remember, shelters are not designed for comfort and do not usually
accept pets. Bring your disaster supply kit with you to the shelter.
● Make sure that you fill up your car with fuel, before you leave.

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General Supply Kit

The general Supply kit aim to provide a food reserve for a family/year
water:
● 300 l /person 3 months (has to be preserved using disinfectant means, like
Micropur)
● Katadyn Pocket Filter

Food /person/year

Basic version:
● 170 kg wheat
● 45 kg sugar or/and honey
● 45kg milk powder
● 6kg salt

Food Luxurious Version:

Carbohydrate:
● 24 kg flour
● 12 kg semolina
● 36 kg rice
● 36 kg pasta
● 3 kg flaked oats
● 12 kg sugar
● 6 kg honey
● 12 kg crisp bread or zwieback
Protein:
● 12 kg canned meat
● 12 kg milk powder
● 24 kg dried beans, peas, lentils
● 6 kg canned fish
● 3 kg egg powder

Fats and oils:

● 12 l oil
Salt and vitamins:
● 6 kg salt
● multivitamin medicaments

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● 30 ascorbin acid in powder (better more, also to use as substitute for vinegar
or lemon acid)

Other suggestions:
● wheat (whole grain)
● dried fruit
● canned vegetables
● vinegar
● broth
● spices
● drink chocolate
● coffee
● polenta
● nuts
● canned fruit
● tea

Further equipment:
● sleeping bag and bed role
● gas cooker, pot, dishes
● radio (solar preferred, in case battery!)
● candles
● a lot of matches
● various medicaments
● tools(axt, multiple purpose tool, a good knife etc.)
● detailed maps
● books: healing plants, eatable plants
● documents

Tools supply kit

● axt
● good knife
● crossbow
● scope
● steel dishes

Additional kits

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Emergency supplies you should have at home

Water At least two litres per adult per day

Food Canned food: soups, stews, baked beans, pasta, meat, poultry, fish
vegetables, fruits

Crackers and biscuits

Honey, peanut butter, syrup, jam, salt and pepper, sugar, instant co
tea

Flashlight Power failures are common in Nova Scotia, particularly in rural a

Radio and batteries Battery-powered, or crank radios let you hear local announcemen

Spare batteries

First-aid kit

Extra car keys and cash

Important papers identification for everyone, personal documents

Clothing and footwear one change of clothes per person

Blankets or sleeping bags one per person

Personal supplies tooth paste, soap, toilet paper, etc

Medication

Backpack/duffel bag in case of an evacuation

Whistle

Playing cards, games

Stove that does not require follow the manufacturer's instructions

electricity Never use a barbeque indoors

Plastic garbage bags

Emergency equipment you should have in your car

Shovel Ice scraper and brush
Sand, salt or kitty litter; traction mats Booster cables
Tow chain Methyl hydrate (for fuel line and windshield de-icing)
First-aid kit Fire extinguisher
Flashlight Road maps
Warning light or road flares Emergency food pack
Extra clothing and footwear Cloth or roll of paper towels
Axe or hatchet Compass

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Matches and a "survival" candle in a deep can (to Blanket (special "survival" blankets are best)
warm hands, heat a drink or use as an emergency
light)

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Action

SNIP

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References
1. http://www.weforum.org/pdf/CSI/Global_Risk_Report.pdf

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