Bapton Books Position Papers:

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hese Position Papers, commonly authored by the partners and publishers of Bapton Books, jointly or severally, are made available free of charge (in many cases), or at a nominal charge, to the reading public and all those interested in the affairs of the day. hey are issued to inform, to !uestion, to educate, to assert propositions for argument, to challenge, to analyse, and, al"ays, to spark useful and intelligent debate. #ach represents the vie"s of the author or authors of each specific paper. hose vie"s and positions are not attributable to any other authors published by Bapton Books, or, save where noted, to the imprint as such.

Bapton Books Position Papers:

Night of the Jackal: VV Putin & Ukraine

$arch %&'(

)eries: *+, *), ,nternational

-$. .emyss $arkham )ha" Pyle

This Paper represents the views of Bapton Books as a firm.

/opyright %&'( by Bapton Books 0iterary rust 1o. '

About the authors:

GMW Wemyss lives and "rites, "isely pseudonymously, in .ilts. 2aving, by invoking the protective colouration of t"eeds, cricket, and country matters, someho" evaded immersion in $ercury "hilst up at *niversity, he survived to become the author of The Confidence of the House: May 1940 and of Sensible Places: essays on lace, ti!e, " countryside, as "ell as of the #illa$e Tales series of novels, beginning "ith %&'34s Cross and Po y%

Markham Shaw Pyle, author of &enevolent 'esi$ns: The Countess and the (eneral: (eor$e )ashin$ton, Selina Countess of Huntin$don, their corres ondence, " the evan$eli*in$ of +!erica, and 5,ools, 'run-s, and the .nited States/: +u$ust 10, 1941, holds his undergraduate and la" degrees from .ashington 6 0ee. 2e is a past or current member of, inter alia, the 7rgani8ation of American 2istorians9 the )ociety for $ilitary 2istory9 the )outhern 2istorical Association9 the )outh"estern )ocial )cience Association9 the )outh"estern 2istorical

Association9 the )outh"estern Political )cience Association9 the :irginia 2istorical )ociety9 and the e;as )tate 2istorical Association.

ogether, they are the partners in Bapton Books, and co<authors of 123: The year of ortent4 of )hen That (reat Shi )ent 'own: the le$al and olitical re ercussions of the loss of 5MS itanic9 of The &a ton &oo-s Sa! ler: a literary chresto!athy4 and of The Transatlantic 'is utations: 6ssays " 7bservations4 and co<editors and co< annotators of The Co! lete Mow$li Stories, 'uly +nnotated, and The +nnotated .ind in the .illo"s, for +dults and Sensible Children 8or, ossibly, Children and Sensible +dults9% heir history of the =uly /risis of '>'( is forthcoming this year.

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Night of the Jackal: VV Putin & Ukraine

:
e!boldened%

: Putin ? and it really is !uite remarkably difficult not to "rite that as, @Putain4 ? is not, personally or as leader of his kleptocratic,

kakistocratic regime, bold by nature. Bullies and jackals are never bold: they crumble and scuttle "hen opposed "ith firmness. :ladimir :ladimirovich is not bold: he has been

hat he and his regime vie" *kraine in the fashion in "hich the PAdophile ,nformation #;change vie"ed nine< year<olds, is no secret. hat he has acted on his desires, has

come as a surprise only to those "ho, after the manner of a 2arman or a 2e"itt in the '>B&s, do not understand in "hat fashion predators are emboldened.

Blame can, in fact, be assigned. $r .emyss, for one, "arned, "hat time the 2ouse of /ommons refused to back 2$ -overnment over )yria, ' that the *+ had entered thereby upon the future poetically foreseen by 0arkin, in "hich the statues and "ar memorials looked al!ost the same, but the nu!en "as fled. ,chabod: the glory has departed. And this "as, and is, the more important because the government of the day in the *nited )tates "as ? and is ? feckless and invertebrate. he spineless impotence of P7 *) is a standing, and markedly unfunny, joke. he invasion ? and it is precisely that ? of *kraine by the regime and troops of the $ugabe of $oskva, is, as of this "riting (% $arch %&'(), ongoing. And it is the direct conse!uence of .estern "eakness. 0et us consider, in this centenary year of the outbreak of the -reat .ar, the echoes and overtones, and seek to find the theme in them.
' $r .emyss also stated at the time, !uite clearly, that either had there been appalling mismanagement by the -overnment through the *sual /hannels, or that $r $iliband, as 0eader of 2$ 0oyal 7pposition, had done something peculiarly terrible. ,t is ackno"ledged that $r $iliband had been given, on Privy /ouncil terms, access to the -overnment4s intelligence and analyses. ,f he then reneged, for partisan political advantage, upon a commitment to back the -overnment, he ought to have been driven from his place and post, from any office of trust under the /ro"n, and from public life. his matter has never been satisfactorily resolved9 and it is increasingly urgent that it be.

*kraine has, like Belgium a century prior, no" called upon the other guaranteeing Po"ers to vindicate its integrity and sovereignty from a violation by one guaranteeing Po"er. 1o doubt, like Bethmann<2oll"eg, $r Putin regards these guarantees as @a scrap of paper49 and like a later -erman chancellor, is no doubt already ? as after the rape of -eorgia ? preparing a Ceichstag rant for his puppet Duma in "hich he announces that this time, this really was his @last territorial demand in #urope4.... ,t is !uite true that :lad the ,nvader4s e;cuses ? !uite cynically threadbare ones "hich he hardly e;pects the "orld to believe ? for committing acts that subject him to 1uremberg penalties, sound very like those of 2itler in the run<up to the )econd .orld .ar: the assertion of a right of e;traterritorial protection over ethnic Cussians, Cussophils, and Cussophones in neighbouring countries, is naturally reminiscent of the )udeten crisis9 and the alleged

@provocations4 , attributed to *krainians, advanced as a casus belli, are markedly evocative of 7p 2,$$0#C and +-tion :onserven, the fake attack upon the -erman radio transmitter by alleged Poles in '>3>. All the same, in '>'( the sarist

entanglement in the Balkans, notably "ith )ervia, % arose from decades of Pan<)lavism and the sarist Cussian claim to be the protector, "orld"ide, of all )lavs and all 7rthodo;, "herever these might d"ell9 and the utter balls being talked by the +remlin of *krainian @provocations4 and @incursions4 to justify invasion and "ar, follo" "ith despicable fidelity the lying script of the '>'( .ilhelmstrasse of the )econd -erman Ceich. Deplorably, also, the intelligence arms, foreign offices, and governments of the .estern democracies, along "ith the bien; ensant press, the Belt"ay media in the *), and the 7bama4s 7"n PrAtorian Press there,3 failed utterly to anticipate the current crisis. .orse yet, they palliated the events that clearly signalled its imminence, not least by advancing once again the long<e;ploded claim that Cussia @"ould not do this because it "ould be economically un"ise4: the inanity maintained, fatally, by 1orman Angell in and before '>'(, "hich "as disproved by the blood of millions. $illions "hose blood had been "asted, in ponderable part, o"ing to Angell4s diabolic theorem, that had paralysed
% he name "as given an upgrade to the less servile<sounding @)erbia4 once that failed state became, accidentally, the -allant Ally of Erance and the *nited +ingdom, in '>'(. o the e;tent that these are not coterminous in any case.

thought and prevented the prevention of "ar. he vegetative state of diplomacy in and before '>'( notably failed to take account of :egetius4 ma;im, Si vis ace!, ara bellu!% .eakness, irresolution, and the failure to dra" clear lines and !aintain the! < in fact, appeasement ? "as as much a feature of the years prior to '>'( as of those preceding '>3>: and "ith the same result. hat 2$

-overnment finds itself, in the centenary year of '>'(, facing once again disunion (the attempt of a third<rate ony

2ancock impersonator to dra" the +inrick of )cots out"ith the *nion), austerity, retrenchment, and divided counsels, only to be confronted suddenly by the prospect of a #uropean conflict, is simply appalling9 and simply the result of its having forgotten the lessons of the past. ,t "as Barbara . uchman ? no red<meat right<"inger, she ? "ho noted that a policy of drift, irresolution, and pussyfoot in international affairs did not keep, but rather positively jeopardised, the peace. 2istory establishes this "ith its usual iron firmness. )ervia in '>'( "as, unlike *kraine, a failed state, and a state that "as run as a private fiefdom by institutionalised terrorists, "ho, controlling military intelligence and the )taff,

constituted ? as the militarists in =apan in the '>3&s constituted9 as the ,), in Pakistan today constitute ? an i! eriu! in i! erio% ,n the aftermath of the assassination of the Archduke at )arajevo, Austria<2ungary "as more nearly in the right than "as )ervia. he subse!uent Balkan crisis

could readily have been localised to the Balkans, as preceding Balkan crises had been in prior years, had 2$ -overnment been firm. /olonel Alfred Cedl had been the head of -%u%-% counter< intelligence in :ienna until shortly before the '>'( "ar. 2is opposite number in Cussian service, then</olonel 1ikolai Batyushin,( ran him: for Cedl, a closet case "ith a taste for high living and lots of dosh, "as an arch<traitor "ho had delivered the entirety of Austria<2ungary4s plans and dispositions, its orders of battle and all, to $osco", and fed :ienna absurd underestimates of Cussian military strength. .hen the -%u%-% forces, as -roup B, marched on Belgrade, they "ere bloodied as a result, for $osco" had provided all Cedl4s intelligence to )ervia. he parallels to the )no"den situation need hardly be underlined. +nd nevertheless, the '>'( "ar could have been localised ? even had Cussia yet intervened in
( Cecently made the patron figure of the 1e" $odel +-B, the E)B, in place of ,ron Eeliks. There1s a stra" in the "ind for you.

support of )ervia, and the Erench and -ermans been dra"n in in respective support of Cussia and of Austria<2ungary ? had 2$ -overnment been firm. ,n '>'(, Belgium4s integrity, sovereignty, and neutrality "as ? similarly to *kraine4s integrity and sovereignty no" ? guaranteed by the Po"ers (including the .ilhelmine Ceich). #ven had the entire /ontinent been convulsed by a general "ar bet"een the #ntente and /entral Po"ers, the "ar could have been prevented from becoming a world "ar had not -ermany regarded this guarantee ? of "hich, again, it "as one of the guarantors ? as a @scrap of paper4. And once again, even had the entire /ontinent been convulsed by a general "ar bet"een the #ntente and /entral Po"ers, the "ar could have been prevented from becoming a world "ar had 2$ -overnment in 0ondon made its position clear. )imply put, the "orld4s superpo"er in '>'(, "ith a global reach and the backing of the Anglosphere it headed, "hich had kept and imposed a global peace for many generations, had it in its po"er at every step and stage on the road to a "orld "ar, to stop it or to localise it. ,n =uly '>'(, had 2$ -overnment made it clear ho" far :ienna might go in dealing "ith )ervia, the "ar could and should have been

localised. 2ad 2$- made it clear that Cussian mobilisation should cause the *nited +ingdom and the British #mpire to "ash their hands of $osco", Erance, if not Cussia, should have acted so differently as to have stopped the spread of "ar. 2ad 2$- made it clear that the first party to intervene in the Austro<)ervian conflict should thereby cause Britain to side "ith the rival alliance, not even Berlin, in all likelihood, should have made a fatal misstep. And had 2$- made it clear before, say, ' August '>'( that any Po"er "hich violated Belgian neutrality thereby found itself in a state of "ar "ith the +ing<#mperor, it is difficult to imagine that even the )econd Ceich should have chanced its arm, gambling (as it did) that Britain should stay out. Barack the Eirst ? to paraphrase Patrick 2enry ? may profit by that e;ample. his is an old story. he Peace of Amiens, and the antics of /harles =ames Eo; and company, assured the resumption of the "ars against Bonaparte. he failure to enforce the terms reached at :ersailles and to reoccupy the Chineland "hen challenged, made the 2itler .ar inevitable. $s -laspie4s failure to speak clearly, led )addam 2ussein to invade +u"ait. o paraphrase the old ma;im, ,f you "ish "ar,

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embrace pacifism. 7r as $r Pyle puts it, ,n this "orld, until the )econd /oming, those "ho beat their s"ords into ploughshares end up doing the ploughing for those "ho kept their s"ords. ,n '>'(, the /abinet "ere deep in the toils of ,rish 2ome Cule, had a precarious "orking majority o"ing only to ,rish support, and kne" that if the -overnment fell, 2ome Cule should fall "ith it. Accordingly, despite an abyssal division "ithin the 0iberal Party and the /abinet, they felt ? )!uiffy in particular felt ? it imperative to make any conceivable concessions to his internal opponents, to keep the party and the -overnment together. ( he greatest threat to any Prime $inister ? al"ays ? does not face him across the Despatch Bo;, but rather sits beside him on his Eront Bench.) )adly, the faction As!uith "as determined to assuage "as the @peace at any price4 set of Cadical 0iberals, supported by /P )cott and the Manchester (uardian%F he chances missed on %H =uly '>'(, for e;ample, to stop or localise the "ar, "ere due "holly to the doomed attempt to keep on side the peace<at<any<price faction. ,n a very real sense, the pro;imate cause of the -reat .ar4s becoming "hat it "as, the first world "ar, rests upon
F he more things change....

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$orley and Cunciman, 2arcourt and )imon. -eorge 0ansbury "as a dear, s"eet man, a patriot, a committed /hristian, and an all<4round -ood #gg. /ecil, "ith his @Peace Ballot4, "as the same. he 0abour pacifists of the '>3&s, crying for disarmament, unilateral if necessary, and the ory appeasers of that decade, are ? ho"ever barking 2itler "as ? directly and pro;imately responsible for the )econd .orld .ar. yrants and adventurers, bullies and jackals, must not be appeased, for that emboldens them. hey must be opposed

and !uite firmly and credibly threatened "ith conse!uences if they set one foot out of line, and that line must be clearly dra"n: for that gives them pause. $ore than that, it prevents them gambling, and provoking a situation in "hich the only available responses are "ar, or futile protests. :: Putin has chanced his arm, and it is the fault of $rs /linton, and $r 7bama, and $r $iliband, and $r Earage for that matter, and many others, including Cepublicans in the *) /ongress and /onservative backbenchers in the 2ouse. ,t must no" ? and much more laboriously, and after blood has been shed ? be cut off at the shoulder. he man and his

regime must be stopped, no"9 and, if not deposed, rendered

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harmless by a /arthaginian peace.G (Cussia is not, as it fancies itself, the @ hird Come49 it is /arthage, $oloch and all. 6r$o, delenda est%) his does not yet mean "ar, and -od forbid it ever should. ,t does mean e;traordinary measures, re!uiring far more effort and money than should have been "anted to prevent the "retched situation4s arising. ,t "ants the addition of $r Putin and his entire regime to the $agnitsky 0ist9 the cancelling of the -<H summit9 the e;pulsion of Cussia from the -<H9 the suspension of all trade and talks9 the isolation, diplomatic and economic, of the regime9 the free8ing or forfeiture of the regime4s assets and those of all "ho hold "ith it9B and, alas, as these things are porous, more. .hat that @more4 might be, it is not pleasant to say, not least because ? not for the first time ? it may mean making common cause
G $r .emyss very much hopes than any terms imposed upon Putin include a re!uirement that he al"ays hencefor"ard "ear a shirt in public. 1o one "ishes to see the old "rinkly4s decayed abs and sagging dugs. 2e is not a t"ilit "ere"olf of t"enty summers, "hatever he may think. (Although one does "onder, in light of his regular episodes of @gay panic4, if, in his boy service "ith the +-B, he "asn4t sometimes a raven<"ho<s"allo"ed, a rent< boy for the 5odina% ,t4d e;plain a good deal.) ($r Pyle observes that he has passed this footnote on the rather 0utheran principle that the best "ays of dealing "ith the devil are to mock him9 thro" a pot of ink ? or pi;els ? at the bastard9 or, as here, both.) he deposed strongman of the *kraine is said, by The Ti!es, to have spent shocking amounts of dosh on lights and (ho" irremediably middle<class) fish<forks. $r .emyss cannot resist channelling 0ord =opling in observing that, 7f course he "as the sort "ho bou$ht his furniture.

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"ith persons "ho, after the manner of the

aliban, then

become the ne;t threat "ith "hich "e in the .est must deal. 1evertheless, all options must no" be on the table, from a ne" )tu;net to arming the bloody /hechens9 and all because a gang of fools encouraged the Putin regime, by the sheer supineness of @reset buttons4 and -<H courtesies and appeasement, to try it on. ,t had been so very easy to have avoided this. All it "anted "as "ill and "isdom, firmness and attention to the immutable lessons of history. Alas, there are those "ho never learn ? mostly on the 0eft ? thereby dooming even those of us "ho have learnt, to repeat, bloodily, the old lesson. he gods of the copy<book headings, as $r +ipling observed, are demanding and ine;orable.

FINIS

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