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BG Group
Pressing pause
We are reducing our rating to Equal Weight. BGs share price had recovered close to 20% relative to the sector this year on the expectation that production guidance was more realistic and that the company was on the verge of delivering a sustained period of growth in both cash flow and production. Such hopes now appear to be premature. Key projects in Brazil and Australia are on track but it is further issues in Egypt, Norway and the US that have led to a reduction in BGs previous volume expectations for 2014 and highlight more caveats around 2015 guidance. We now forecast 2014 production growth at 3%, leaving the company with a growth profile, which is far less differentiated compared to others in the peer group than we previously anticipated. Longer term we do expect the company to deliver significant cash flow generation and production growth from Brazil and Australia alongside a greater focus on portfolio rationalization, but with growth pushed ever further out it is increasingly difficult to justify the premium multiple on which the stock trades. We reduce our price target to 1320p/sh and our rating to Equal Weight. Volume disappointments overshadow exploration and LNG focus: BG surprised the market with its operational update on 2014 with Egypt performing far worse than both our expectations and seemingly those of consensus. Delays in Egypt and Norway and a decision to continue to operate fewer rigs in the US combined to leave volumes approximately 47kboe/d below a company-provided consensus of 720kb/d. The decision to minimize US volumes is welcome given the economics but the issues surrounding Egypt have the potential to continue to disappoint and we now assume 3% growth for the coming year. 2015 guidance was left unchanged at 775-825kb/d but there were further caveats relating to the political situation in Egypt, suggesting that there is higher risk associated with this than we previously anticipated and we have also reduced our expectations here. Longer-term fundamentals remain in place: Longer term we continue to see BGs resource base as impressive and that progress in delivering growth volumes in Brazil and Australia remains on track is encouraging. However with the shares now trading on 9.6x 2014E EV/EBIDA, a 53% premium to the sector we see delivery on 2014 milestones as essential to driving the next leg of share price performance. BG.L: Financial and Valuation Metrics GBP
FY Dec EPS Previous EPS P/E
Source: Barclays Research.
Stock Rating
EQUAL WEIGHT
from Overweight
Industry View
POSITIVE
Unchanged
Price Target
GBP 13.20
lowered -4% from GBP 13.70
Price (09-Sep-2013) Potential Upside/Downside Tickers Market Cap (GBP mn) Shares Outstanding (mn) Free Float (%) 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) Dividend Yield (%) Return on Equity TTM (%) Current BVPS (GBP)
Source: FactSet Fundamentals
GBP 12.17 +8% BG/ LN / BG.L 41465 3407.12 98.59 6.5 1.4 12.52 6.42
European Integrated Oil Rahim Karim, CFA +44 (0)20 3134 1853 rahim.karim@barclays.com Barclays, London
Lydia Rainforth, CFA +44 (0)20 3134 6669 lydia.rainforth@barclays.com Barclays, London Joshua Stone +44 (0)20 3134 6694 joshua.stone@barclays.com Barclays, London
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 11.
Barclays | BG Group
European Integrated Oil Industry View: POSITIVE Stock Rating: EQUAL WEIGHT 2012A 8,054 10,564 8,098 4,379 0.81 1.28 3,415 0.26 2013E 7,474 10,571 8,224 4,117 0.78 1.20 3,417 0.29 2014E 8,008 11,287 8,798 4,496 0.85 1.32 3,418 0.32 2015E 10,162 14,289 10,886 5,724 1.08 1.67 3,418 0.35 CAGR 8.1% 10.6% 10.4% 9.3% 10.1% 9.3% 0.0% 10.0% Average 9.5 12.9 5.7 CAGR 10.3% 0.0% 15.1% 11.2% 11.5% 9.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Average 14.1 6.9 8.9 -3.7 1.7 1.6 27 36 21.5 POINT Quantitative Equity Scores Price (09-Sep-2013) GBP 12.17 Price Target GBP 13.20 Why Equal Weight? Key projects in Brazil and Australia are on track but it is further issues in Egypt, Norway and the US that have led to us to believe production growth in 2014 will be less differentiated versus peers. Longer term we still expect significant growth, but with growth pushed further out it is difficult to justifly the premium mulitple on which the stock trades. Upside case GBP 14.10 If we were to assume that BG is able to deliver on the upper end of its 2015 production target of 775-825 k boe/d this would lift our NAV by around 90p. Downside case GBP 9.00 A year delay in the start-up of the group's QCLNG project in Australia and a 15% cost over-run in Brazil would reduce our NAV by 200p. To reflect the increased execution risk, we believe it would be appropriate for the shares to trade at a 20% discount to NAV. Upside/Downside scenarios
BG Group (BG.L)
Income statement ($mn) Operating profit (adj) EBITDA (adj) EBIDA (adj) Net income (adj) EPS (adj) () EPS (adj, alt currency) ($) Diluted shares (mn) DPS ($) Return data ROACE (%) ROAE (%) ROMC (%) Balance sheet and cash flow ($mn) Shareholders' equity Minorities Net debt/(funds) Total debt Capital employed Cash flow from operations Capital expenditure Dividends paid Net cash from operations Free cash flow Net cash surplus/(deficit) Valuation and leverage metrics P/E (adj) (x) EV/EBITDA (adj) (x) EV/EBIDA (adj) (x) FCF yield (%) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) Net debt/capital (%) Net debt/equity (%) EV/1P reserves ($/boe) Selected operating metrics Upstream Oil production (000 b/d) Gas production (000 cf/d) Total production (000 boe/d) Net income ($/boe) Reserves (mn boe) Reserve life (years) F&D cost ($/bl) RRR (%) Downstream Refining capacity (000 b/d) Refining throughput (000 b/d)
32,891 57 11,048 15,507 43,996 7,995 -9,556 -877 -2,438 -1,561 891
36,072 57 11,662 16,121 47,791 7,681 -12,010 -936 -5,265 -4,329 -614
39,529 44,118 57 57 16,348 16,855 20,807 21,314 55,934 61,030 8,254 10,343 -12,252 -10,065 -1,039 -1,135 -5,036 -857 -3,997 278 -4,686 -507
Value
173 484 657 10.6 3,431 14.3 18.6 177 0 0 186 464 650 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 198 465 664 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 253 497 750 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0
Quality
Sentiment
Low
High
Source: POINT. The scores are valid as of the date of this report and are independent of the fundamental analysts' views. To view the latest scores, click here.
10 September 2013
Barclays | BG Group
All 2013 guidance unchanged. QCLNG project in Australia remains on schedule with first gas into the plant expected
around year-end.
2014 milestones delayed. Combined impact on 2014 production of 30kboe/d from a four-month delay in both the
West Delta Deep Marine phase 9a project in Egypt and the Knarr project in Norway.
2015 production guidance of 775-825kboe/d remains unchanged. In exploration the target is to add 0.5-1.0bn boe of resources every year Exploration projects should provide one of four competitive advantages to the BG
Group.
LNG markets to remain tight. BG do not see the LNG business as a trading business. Active portfolio management will remain part of the groups strategy.
Four month delay at the Knarr project in Norway with the scope of the project being
changed.
A further four-month delay in Egypt at phase 9a of the West Delta Deep Marine project
to later in 2014 due to on-going political and social instability in the country.
A 17kb/d reduction in the US with continuing low natural gas prices leading BG to an
economic decision to continue to operate fewer rigs. Given our previous forecast of 719kboe/d for 2014 production for BG, the direct impact from the data released by the company is to reduce our estimate to 672kboe/d. Although we had been conservative in our volume estimate for the US it appears we may not have included enough contingencies elsewhere. Further to this direct impact, we have also incorporated continued weakness in Egypt taking our volume estimates to 664kboe/d in turn taking our estimate of growth for the year to close to 3%.
10 September 2013
Barclays | BG Group
Weak gas environment forces even lower activity in the US but is the right decision
In its main presentation BG suggested that the reduction of 17kboe/d of US volumes relative to its previous expectations could actually be enhancing to cash flow. As a result we are not unduly concerned about the cut to US volumes.
Barclays | BG Group
2012-2015 CAGR
Source: Company data, Barclays Research
BG is an early entrant Has distinctive knowledge (eg carbonates, tertiary deltas, HPHT) There is an associated LNG opportunity Or it is part of a wider hub strategy
Overall the presentation was a reminder that BG has been very successful in recent years in its exploration programme and that it has more opportunities to deliver longer-term growth outside of Brazil.
Barclays | BG Group Outside of QCLNG trains one and two the management provided an assessment of the possible growth opportunities available to the group. To this point, BG detailed four LNG projects that the company are currently considering. These include Prince Rupert (~14mtpa) and Lake Charles (15mtpa) in North America, Tanzania (~10mtpa) in Africa and a third train (4.25mtpa) at the QCLNG project in Australia. It is currently too early for us to include these within our forecasts but we recognise that these could offer a source of upside to profitability longer term. The chart below shows our estimates of nearer term LNG profitability and volumes. LNG to deliver material growth over 2012-16 period
25 Volumes, mtpa EBIT, $bn (RHS) 3.0 2.9 20 2.8 2.7 15 2.6 2.5 10 2.4 2.3 5 2.2 2.1 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Company data, Barclays estimates
2.0
We have reduced our 2014-17 estimates by an average of 5% to reflect the lower than expected medium term outlook for upstream volumes. We leave our 2013 estimate broadly unchanged.
10 September 2013
Barclays | BG Group
BG MODEL
Earnings
$bn Modelling assumptions: Oil price, Brent, $/bl UK natural gas, NBP p/therm Exchange rate, $: Financial forecasts Exploration & Production LNG T&D Power Generation Other Operations Adjusted operating profit Interest Pre-tax profit Taxation Tax rate, % Minorities Adjusted net income % Change GBP net income % Change Special items % Impact of special items Reported net income 4.78 1.05 0.49 0.26 (0.07) 6.51 (0.05) 6.45 (2.77) 43 (0.11) 3.57 19 1.78 9 (0.08) (2) 3.49 6.58 2.91 0.31 0.22 (0.04) 10.00 0.04 10.04 (4.27) 43 (0.05) 5.71 60 3.08 73 0.09 1 5.80 3.22 2.39 0.71 0.11 (0.02) 6.41 (0.20) 6.20 (2.61) 42 (0.15) 3.44 (40) 2.20 (29) (0.12) (4) 3.32 3.77 2.45 0.71 0.00 (0.00) 6.92 (0.16) 6.77 (2.61) 39 (0.15) 4.01 17 2.60 18 (0.66) (17) 3.35 5.15 2.57 0.51 0.00 (0.02) 8.21 (0.22) 7.99 (3.27) 41 (0.09) 4.63 15 2.89 11 (0.39) (9) 4.24 5.47 2.58 0.00 0.00 0.01 8.05 (0.14) 7.92 (3.54) 45 (0.00) 4.38 (5) 2.76 (4) (1.00) (23) 3.38 4.94 2.51 0.00 0.00 0.03 7.47 (0.12) 7.35 (3.24) 44 0.00 4.12 (6) 2.66 (4) (0.13) (3) 3.99 4.50 5.72 6.75 7.57 5.53 2.45 0.00 0.00 0.03 8.01 (0.12) 7.89 (3.39) 43 0.00 4.50 9 2.90 9 7.63 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.03 10.16 (0.12) 10.04 (4.32) 43 0.00 5.72 27 3.69 27 8.98 2.93 0.00 0.00 0.03 11.94 (0.11) 11.83 (5.09) 43 0.00 6.75 18 4.35 18 10.43 2.92 0.00 0.00 0.03 13.38 (0.10) 13.28 (5.71) 43 0.00 7.57 12 4.89 12 72.7 29.9 2.00 98.1 58.2 1.85 62.2 31.1 1.56 79.7 42.5 1.55 111.0 56.8 1.60 112.1 59.6 1.59 107.7 67.4 1.55 105.0 67.5 1.55 105.0 67.5 1.55 105.0 67.5 1.55 98.8 65.0 1.55 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F
EPS calculation
2007A Adjusted net income, $bn Average shares in issue, bn Potential shares, bn Diluted shares in issue, bn Adjusted EPS, p % Change Adjusted E/ADR, $ % Change DPS, p % Change Dividend per ADR, $ % Change Payout ratio, %
Source: Company data, Barclays Research
2009A 3.44 3.36 0.03 3.39 65.0 (29) 5.08 (40) 12.35 10 0.96 (7) 19
2012A 4.38 3.40 0.02 3.42 80.8 (5) 6.41 (6) 16.67 12 1.31 10 20
2013F 4.12 3.40 0.02 3.42 77.9 (4) 6.02 (6) 18.58 11 1.44 10 24
10 September 2013
Barclays | BG Group
Cash flow
$bn Adjusted net income Minorities Adjusted depreciation Exploration costs written off Deferred taxation Post tax int charge on debt EBIDA Less post tax interest charge Working capital movement Other movements Equity income retained Cash flow from operations per share, p Capital expenditure Dividends Net free cash flow Non recurring items: Acquisitions Divestments Share issuance (repurchase) All other items inc debt issue Surplus (deficit) FCF cover of div, x (0.99) 0.93 (1.01) 0.61 0.82 3.1 (3.82) 0.03 (0.31) 0.11 (1.97) 3.8 (1.81) 0.01 0.10 3.35 (0.39) (1.9) (1.79) 1.37 0.09 4.44 1.40 (2.4) (0.25) 0.20 0.03 5.41 1.11 (3.7) (0.43) 2.94 0.02 0.80 0.89 (1.8) 0.00 4.30 0.00 0.35 (0.61) (4.6) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 (4.69) (3.8) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 (0.51) 0.2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.42 1.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 1.45 1.8 2007A 3.57 0.11 1.36 0.21 0.87 (0.03) 6.09 0.03 (0.25) (0.19) (0.20) 5.49 81 (3.60) (0.60) 1.28 2008A 5.71 0.05 1.63 0.44 0.79 (0.08) 8.55 0.08 0.08 (0.39) (0.18) 8.13 131 (5.41) (0.71) 2.01 2009A 3.44 0.15 1.75 0.55 0.55 0.10 6.54 (0.10) (0.67) (0.08) (0.16) 5.53 105 (6.87) (0.69) (2.03) 2010A 4.01 0.15 2.13 0.38 0.62 0.07 7.36 (0.07) (0.77) 0.11 (0.24) 6.39 122 (8.31) (0.79) (2.71) 2011A 4.63 0.09 2.29 0.29 0.48 0.06 7.84 (0.06) (0.57) 0.04 (0.27) 6.98 128 (10.35) (0.91) (4.28) 2012A 4.38 0.00 2.51 0.34 0.82 0.05 8.10 (0.05) (0.18) 0.41 (0.29) 8.00 148 (9.56) (0.88) (2.44) 2013F 4.12 0.00 3.10 0.37 0.60 0.04 8.22 (0.04) (0.30) 0.00 (0.20) 7.68 146 (12.01) (0.94) (5.27) 2014F 4.50 0.00 3.28 0.38 0.60 0.04 8.80 (0.04) (0.30) 0.00 (0.20) 8.25 157 (12.25) (1.04) (5.04) 2015F 5.72 0.00 4.13 0.39 0.60 0.04 10.89 (0.04) (0.30) 0.00 (0.20) 10.34 196 (10.07) (1.13) (0.86) 2016F 6.75 0.00 4.63 0.41 0.60 0.04 12.42 (0.04) (0.30) 0.00 (0.20) 11.88 226 (10.57) (1.24) 0.07 2017F 7.57 0.00 5.47 0.41 0.60 0.03 14.09 (0.03) (0.30) 0.00 (0.20) 13.56 257 (11.10) (1.36) 1.10
10 September 2013
Barclays | BG Group
Balance sheet
$bn Ordinary shareholders' funds Minorities Net debt Capital employed Additional items: NBV per share, p Net debt per share, p Balance sheet analysis: Net debt to equity, % Net debt to capital, % RoAE, % RoACE, % Accumulated depreciation Cash invested CROCI, % 0.1 0.1 26.6 26.3 9.5 24.1 25.3 8.3 7.6 34.9 32.8 9.0 29.0 29.5 21.3 17.4 16.7 15.3 10.6 38.8 16.9 26.4 20.6 16.3 13.7 11.7 45.3 16.2 38.8 27.7 16.6 12.8 13.8 54.8 14.3 33.6 25.1 14.1 10.4 15.3 59.3 13.6 32.3 24.4 11.9 9.1 17.3 65.1 12.6 41.4 29.2 11.9 8.8 19.5 75.4 11.7 38.2 27.6 13.7 9.9 22.1 83.1 13.1 33.1 24.9 14.4 10.7 25.1 91.2 13.6 26.8 21.1 14.4 11.1 28.6 99.5 14.2 213 0 381 31 422 90 504 133 540 209 611 205 686 222 751 310 838 320 942 312 1,060 284 2007A 14.38 0.26 0.02 14.66 2008A 18.34 0.18 1.52 20.04 2009A 22.91 0.32 4.89 28.12 2010A 26.33 0.36 6.94 33.62 2011A 29.38 0.29 11.40 41.07 2012A 32.89 0.06 11.05 44.00 2013F 36.07 0.06 11.66 47.79 2014F 39.53 0.06 16.35 55.93 2015F 44.12 0.06 16.85 61.03 2016F 49.62 0.06 16.43 66.11 2017F 55.83 0.06 14.98 70.87
10 September 2013
Barclays | BG Group
Comparative valuations
Company Closing Price 08-Sept Majors BP Chevron* ExxonMobil* Royal Dutch Shell A Royal Dutch Shell B Total Arithmetic Average Euro Integrated Oil BG Group Eni Galp MOL OMV Repsol Statoil Arithmetic Average 1282 17.4 13.4 16050 36.0 18.4 136 9.7 5.0 14.6 5.4 4.4 5.9 4.3 7.0 9.6 4.2 14.7 5.5 4.5 5.5 4.0 6.9 7.8 4.0 12.1 5.0 4.6 5.1 4.0 6.1 16.5 12.1 33.2 9.6 8.8 12.3 9.6 14.6 15.1 9.1 28.5 10.4 9.4 11.5 9.9 13.4 11.9 8.6 21.7 9.8 9.4 10.3 9.9 11.7 1.4 6.3 2.2 3.1 3.5 5.4 5.1 3.9 1.6 6.5 2.6 2.9 3.5 5.4 5.3 4.0 1.8 6.7 3.1 3.1 3.5 5.4 5.5 4.1 446 121 87.3 2079 2162 42.4 5.3 6.6 8.4 5.2 5.4 4.8 6.0 4.9 6.6 8.4 5.1 5.3 4.6 5.8 4.8 6.2 8.1 5.0 5.2 4.5 5.6 8.8 10.4 11.9 8.5 8.8 8.6 9.5 8.2 10.5 12.0 8.7 9.0 8.6 9.5 8.2 9.8 11.6 8.8 9.1 8.9 9.4 5.3 3.2 2.8 5.6 5.4 5.7 4.7 5.6 3.5 3.1 5.9 5.6 5.8 4.9 5.9 3.9 3.4 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.2 2013F EV/EBIDA, x 2014F 2015F 2013F P/E, x 2014F 2015F Dividend yield, % 2013F 2014F 2015F
10 September 2013
10
Barclays | BG Group
ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S):
We, Rahim Karim, CFA and Lydia Rainforth, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. The POINT Quantitative Equity Scores (POINT Scores) referenced herein are produced by the firms POINT quantitative model and Barclays hereby certifies that (1) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the firm's POINT Scores model and (2) no part of the firm's compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Disclosure Legend: A: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities of the issuer in the previous 12 months. B: An employee of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a director of this issuer. C: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by this issuer or one of its affiliates. D: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the past 12 months. E: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the next 3 months. F: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of equity securities of the issuer as of the end of the month prior to the research report's issuance. G: One of the analysts on the coverage team (or a member of his or her household) owns shares of the common stock of this issuer. H: This issuer beneficially owns 5% or more of any class of common equity securities of Barclays Bank PLC. I: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has a significant financial interest in the securities of this issuer. J: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the securities of this issuer. K: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from this issuer within the past 12 months. L: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate. M: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate. N: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (non-securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate. O: Barclays Capital Inc., through Barclays Market Makers, is a Designated Market Maker in this issuer's stock, which is listed on the New York 10 September 2013 11
Barclays | BG Group
Guide to the Barclays Fundamental Equity Research Rating System: Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as Overweight, Equal Weight or Underweight (see definitions below) relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry (the "industry coverage universe"). In addition to the stock rating, we provide industry views which rate the outlook for the industry coverage universe as Positive, Neutral or Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system. Investors should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone. Stock Rating Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon. Equal Weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12month investment horizon. Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon. Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily due to market events that made coverage impracticable or to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including where the Corporate and Investment Banking Division of Barclays is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company. Industry View Positive - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving. Neutral - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating. Negative - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating. Below is the list of companies that constitute the "industry coverage universe": European Integrated Oil BG Group (BG.L) Galp Energia (GALP.LS) Repsol (REP.MC) Statoil ASA (STL.OL) Distribution of Ratings: Barclays Equity Research has 2409 companies under coverage. 44% have been assigned an Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 50% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm. 40% have been assigned an Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 46% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm. 13% have been assigned an Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 43% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm. Guide to the Barclays Research Price Target: Each analyst has a single price target on the stocks that they cover. The price target represents that analyst's expectation of where the stock will trade in the next 12 months. Upside/downside scenarios, where provided, represent potential upside/potential downside to each analyst's price target over the same 12-month period. Guide to the POINT Quantitative Equity Scores: The POINT Quantitative Equity Scores (POINT Scores) are based on consensus historical data and are independent of the Barclays fundamental analysts views. Each score is composed of a number of standard industry metrics. 10 September 2013 12 BP (BP.L) MOL (MOLB.BU) Royal Dutch Shell A (RDSa.L) Total (TOTF.PA) Eni (ENI.MI) OMV (OMVV.VI) Royal Dutch Shell B (RDSb.L)
Barclays | BG Group
10 September 2013
13
Barclays | BG Group
Stock Rating EQUAL WEIGHT Currency=GBP Date 22-Aug-2013 03-Jul-2013 15-May-2013 06-Feb-2013 14-Dec-2012 01-Nov-2012 27-Jul-2012 04-May-2012 25-Apr-2012 10-Feb-2012 01-Jul-2011 Closing Price 11.68 11.06 12.23 11.35 10.42 11.02 12.54 13.64 14.12 14.79 14.28 13.67 15.33 13.03 11.62 12.62 Overweight Rating
Price Target 13.70 13.50 14.00 14.20 14.50 14.90 18.00 18.30 18.50 18.00 17.00 16.50 17.00 16.00 15.00 14.10
18
16
14
12
10
11-May-2011 25-Mar-2011
Jan- 2011 Jul- 2011 Closing Price Jan- 2012 Jul- 2012 Jan- 2013 Rating Change Jul- 2013
Target Price
10 September 2013
14
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