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AET
UA AL
T IO
EARN
STR O
NG
ING SQ
UA
ES
LIT
LO
HISTORICAL RATINGS
B ALANC
EARNINGS QUALITY CASH FLOW QUALITY OPERATING EFFICIENCY BALANCE SHEET VALUATION
OPE
ST R ONGEST
R A TI N G E F FIC I EN
CY
$45
CA
$45 $40 $35 $30 20 Million Nov Dec 2013 Report prepared on January 11, 2013 Page 1 of 11
$40
$35
$30
20 Million Jan 2012 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
SH
FLO
OVERALL RATING
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
WE
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
W Q U ALITY
AK
STRO
NG
E SH
EE
AET
Adjusted Net Income as a Percentage of Net Income 98.4% 104.5% 101.7% 100.0%
3,000 2,000 2,074.1 1,872.1 2,364.0 1,738.3 2,000 530.0 457.0 457.0 499.0
1,332.0
1,840.0
1,840.0
1,985.0
1,985.0
1,766.0
1,766.0
457.0
1,000
1,592.0
1,000
0 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
Trailing 12 Months
Trailing 12 Months
Q2 2012
49.0
Q3 2012 % OF SALES
ACCRUALS
Actual Accruals 10.0% 8.0% Forcasted Accruals
6.0%
4.0%
2.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.4% 9.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 9.3% 8.3% 8.7% 9.1%
0.0%
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
93.0
AET
Adjusted Operating Cash Flow as a Percentage of Operating Cash Flow 94.4% 94.3% 89.9% 54.7% 55.8% 3,000 2,364.0 2,000 2,507.0 1,332.0 1,000 0
Adjusted Free Cash Flow as a Percentage of Free Cash Flow 92.8% 92.7% 84.3% 56.6% 2,000 1,000 1,825.0
1,968.0
1,107.0
1,139.0
1,027.0
960.0
-53.0
-94.0
1,592.0
1,412.0
1,771.0
167.0
0 93.0 -1,000
Trailing 12 Months
90.0
49.0
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Trailing 12 Months
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
FLOW RATIO
0.40 0.30
0.00 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
0.0% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
DEBT COVERAGE
Adjusted Debt Coverage 75
50
25
0 Q4 10
2013 Jefferson Research & Management www.jeffersonresearch.com
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
7.0
-66.0
AET
GROSS MARGIN
Change from previous quarter: UPL 32.0%
EBIT MARGIN
Adjusted EBIT Margin 15.0% 12.5% Change from previous quarter: UPL
26.0% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
5.0% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
NET MARGIN
Adjusted Net Margin 8.0% Change from previous quarter: UPL
2.0% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
17.0% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
AET
12.0% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
-150.0% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
ASSET TURNOVER
1.00 0.95
EQUITY TURNOVER
2.70
0.90
2.65
0.85
0.80 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
2.60 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
IN DAYS
AET
21
20
19 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
CURRENT RATIO
0.80
QUICK RATIO
0.70
0.75
0.65
0.70 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
0.60 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
AET
100
14
50
12
0 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
CASH
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
AET
PRICE/EARNINGS
RANGE LAST 2 YEARS Reported Price/Earnings Adjusted Price/Earnings Sector Price/Earnings LOW 7.00 6.30 13.00 HIGH 9.30 8.70 16.20 AVERAGE 15 8.49 7.78 14.35 10 5 0 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 16.0 0.5 Q3 2012 Page 8 of 11 0.0 10.7 0.0 8.4 7.0 8.8 0.6 8.6 6.7 1.9 6.3 7.8 0.4 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Report prepared on January 11, 2013 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 176.5 6.9 7.9 7.6 0.1 10.5 As Reported Adjusted Health Care Providers & Services Sector
PRICE/CASH FLOW
RANGE LAST 2 YEARS Reported Price/Cash Flow Adjusted Price/Cash Flow Sector Price/Cash Flow LOW 5.30 5.60 9.70 HIGH 7.00 7.30 12.60 AVERAGE 15 6.48 6.79 10.75 10 5 0 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 12.6 10.1 6.9 6.5 5.6 6.7 5.3 7.1 Q3 2012 As Reported Adjusted Health Care Providers & Services Sector
PRICE/EARNINGS GROWTH
RANGE LAST 2 YEARS Reported Price/Earnings Growth Adjusted Price/Earnings Growth Sector Price/Earnings Growth LOW 0.20 0.20 0.00 HIGH 1.90 176.50 0.60 AVERAGE 0.51 22.29 0.13 As Reported 200 150 100 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0 0.1 0.6 50 0.5 0.5 Adjusted Health Care Providers & Services Sector
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
PRICE/SALES
RANGE LAST 2 YEARS Reported Price/Sales Sector Price/Sales LOW 0.40 0.50 HIGH 1.40 0.60 AVERAGE 1.50 1.10 0.54 1.00 0.50 0.00 As Reported Health Care Providers & Services Sector
AET
TICKER
COMPANY
MARKET CAP. $19.7 B $18.9 B $15.9 B $15.3 B $14.7 B $14.6 B $11.0 B $5.1 B
FMS FRESENIUS MED CARE AG -ADR WLP WELLPOINT INC CI CIGNA CORP AET AETNA INC HCA HCA HOLDINGS INC CAH CARDINAL HEALTH INC HUM HUMANA INC HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS & SERVICES SECTOR
COMPANY FRESENIUS MED CARE AG -ADR WELLPOINT INC CIGNA CORP AETNA INC HCA HOLDINGS INC CARDINAL HEALTH INC HUMANA INC
AET
AET
HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS & SERVICES INDUSTRY ABOUT THE FINANCIAL SONAR REPORT & METHODOLOGY
The Jefferson Financial Sonar ratings system classifies companies into three categories: Buy, Hold and Sell. The Financial Sonar rating is the result of a point scoring system derived from the five main criteria. The more negative the rating, the more likely the overall rating will be a Sell. More positive criteria will support an Overall Rating of Buy. Jefferson Research & Management has developed the Financial Sonar Rating System which is based upon five analytical criteria: Earnings Quality, Cash Flow, Operating Efficiency, Balance Sheet, and Valuation. The first four criteria are rated in one of four categories (best to worst): Strongest, Strong, Weak, Weakest. Valuation is also rated in one of four categories (best to worst): Least Risk, Low Risk, Medium Risk, Most Risk.
DISCLAIMER
This report is for information purposes only for clients of Jefferson Research & Management and in no way should be interpreted as a complete investment recommendation. This report has been prepared exclusively by Jefferson Research & Management. Information contained in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made to its accuracy and no representation is made that it is complete, or that errors, if discovered, will be corrected. 1) Jefferson Research & Management and its staff are not involved in investment banking activities for firms covered. 2) No employee of Jefferson Research & Management is on the board of any covered company and no outsiders are members of Jefferson Research & Managements board. 3) Jefferson Research & Management employees trading stock in rated companies are subject to trading restrictions prior to release (once identified) and for a one day period subsequent to rating changes but do not individually or collectively own more than 1 percent of the outstanding stock of a covered company. No part of this report can be reprinted or transmitted electronically without the prior written authorization of Jefferson Research & Management.