Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Symposium Theme: "Sharing applications, success stories and lessons learned in reliability
and maintainability engineering." The presentations cover a range of subjects, including but not limited to:
Reliability Program Planning Design for Reliability (DFR) Accelerated Life Testing, HALT and ESS Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Life Data Analysis Reliability Growth Analysis Software Reliability Reliability, Availability, Maintainability (RAM) Optimized Maintenance Planning Reliability Investment and Life Cycle Costs
Technical Sponsor
Organizers
Program Highlights
presentations by actual practitioners in industry and government. 30 presentations are offered in two simultaneous tracks. You can attend sessions in either track.
30 PRESENTATIONS: The 2014 ARS North America program offers a wide variety of results-oriented
2 TUTORIALS: The program also offers two tutorial by experts in the field of reliability analysis:
Life Data Analysis for Reliability by Julio Pulido of ReliaSoft Corporation Good FMEAs, Bad FMEAs, Whats the Difference? by Carl Carlson of ReliaSoft Corporation
Collaboration
Common Challenges
International Awareness
Networking
Real World Applications
Reliability Engineering Forum Innovation
Sharing Solutions
The Symposium is held annually at multiple locations throughout the world. Other 2014 scheduled events include: Paris, France - April 23 - 25, 2014 So Paulo, Brasil - May 7 - 9, 2014 Shanghai, China - November 5 - 7, 2014 Bangalore, India - November 12 - 14, 2014
Wednesday
Red Room Blue Room
Optimal Use of Information to Facilitate and Improve Reliability and Maintainability Analyses Stefan Pleshoyano PBM inc.
Registration and Check-in from 7:00 to 8:30 a.m. Continental breakfast available. (You also have the option to check in on Monday from 4 - 7 p.m.) Welcome Address
10 Minute Break
Blue-S5
Proving the Case for Adopting Combined Stress ESS Techniques Tom Peters Qualmark Corporation
9:10 - 10:10
Application of Reliability and Engineering Tools from Product Development to Volume Production Ruxandra Bantoiu ITF Laboratories
Blue-S1
Red-S1
Warship Modernization Design for Reliability, Maintainability, Life Cycle and Obsolescence Management Xiangqun Qiu Department of National Defense, Canada Red-S2 Implementing a Global Equipment Reliability Program Ronald F. Reimer Eli Lilly and Company
Blue-S6
10:10 - 10:30
20 Minute Break
10:30 - 11:30
Better Field Reliability with Big Data Analytics Georgios Sarakakis Tesla Motors
Blue-S2
Blue-S7
Modeling Software Reliability Growth Jack Olivieri MITRE Corporation
11:30 - 1:00
1:00 - 2:00
Blue-S3
Red-S3
Reliability Maturity Assessment (RMA) As Part of the Design for Reliability Process Andre Kleyner Delphi Electronics & Safety
Blue-S8
Developing a Reliability Improvement Plan for a Main PCB Assembly to Reduce Overall Warranty Costs Mohammad M. Hasan Nilfisk-Advance, Inc.
2:00 - 2:20
Gary Berg Medtronic, Inc.
20 Minute Break
2:20 - 3:20
Blue-S4
Red-S4
Blue-S9
3:20 - 3:30
10 Minute Break
3:30 - 4:30
Good FMEAs, Bad FMEAs Whats the Difference? Carl Carlson ReliaSoft Corporation
Blue-Tutorial 1
Welcome Reception
6:00 - 9:00
.
Blue Room
Reducing the Validation Cost of an Engineering Design Change When a Failure Occurs on a Censored Test Jeff Snow Magna Powertrain
Applying Design of Experiments for Selection of Materials and Components in Product Development John J. Paschkewitz Watlow
Red-S5
Blue-S10
Red-S10
Reliability Assessment of a Low Temperature Lead-Free Solder Used in a High g-Load Environment Reinaldo Gonzalez GE Healthcare
Reliability As a Life Cycle Cost Enabler Andrew Foote Alion Science and Technology Corporation
Red-S6
Availability Improvement, Planning and Forecasting James B. Humphries Fluor
Blue-S11
Customer/Supplier Collaborative Accelerated Life Testing Mark Wagner Watlow Electric Manufacturing Company
Red-S11
Underground Electrical Cable Fault Forecasting Utilizing the Crow-AMSAA Reliability Growth Model Yancy Gill Salt River Project
Red-S7
Electric Vehicles Regenerative Braking Duty Cycle Development and Validation Mohammad Hijawi Chrysler Group
Blue-S12
A Review of Reliability Tools and Paradigms for Effectiveness and Best Practices James McLeish DfR Solutions
Red-S12
Reliability Growth Planning for the Army Models, Issues and Lessons Learned Daniel Kosinski US Army, TARDEC
Red-S8
Agile Implementation of Reliability in an Organization Daniel Lee Ops A La Carte
Blue-S13
Time-based Simulation in Design for Reliability and Robustness Nicholas Lambert Ridgetop Group, Inc. Design for Service Life Nematollah Bidokhti Cisco Systems
Red-S13
Red-S9
Blue-S14
A Practical Methodology for Measuring Success of Organizational Design and Synthesis Using Axiomatic Design and Design for Six Sigma Metrics James M. Wasiloff US DoD, TACOM LCMC
Red-S14
Reliability Assessment of Your Storeroom to Support Operations H.P. Slater MRG (Management Resources Group)
Blue-S15
Red-S15
Blue-Tutorial 2
Session 1
BLUE ROOM
Session 2
BLUE ROOM
zzRED ROOM
Warship Modernization Design for Reliability, Maintainability, Life Cycle and Obsolescence Management
Using the Royal Canadian Navy warship modernization program as an example, this presentation illustrates Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) challenges and how these challenges can benefit from more effective R&M consideration in the early design. One of the major challenges is that while warship modernization uses commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) solutions as much as possible, the goal is to create a system that operates longer and requires less maintenance. This requires higher component reliability and system availability, as well as sound maintenance planning, life cycle and obsolescence management.
Session 3
BLUE ROOM
Session 4
BLUE ROOM
When software is embedded into medical devices, how do we know that the software will be reliable? Software reliability is typically assessed by fitting various models to software defect data; the defects are found by executing software or system reliability tests. Reliability assessments made through this process are accurate only to the degree that the software reliability testing represents how the software is actually used. In many cases, we do not know exactly how software will be used, and therefore we cannot accurately predict its reliability. The concept of an operational profile has been introduced and applied to address this issue. However, operational profiles are limited in their ability to demonstrate extremely high reliability levels, which are typically required for medical devices. The explosion of device and patient data collected within medical devices, which has occurred in recent years, has created a potential to use this data in reliability testing. This presentation will: 1) Explain the weaknesses in current software reliability testing. 2) Propose a new approach to leverage big data in reliability testing of medical device software. 3) Describe a system that results in a highly resolute and model-free reliability assessment. 4) Introduce a new role of the software reliability engineer leading this effort.
zzRED ROOM
Reliability Maturity Assessment (RMA) As Part of the Design for Reliability Process
In an organization, many activities focus on assessing the reliability of a product being designed. However, there have been recent efforts in assessing the maturity of the organization itself and its processes in regards to reliability. Reliability Maturity Assessment (RMA) is a valuable and effective tool for assessing the maturity of an organization in regards to its design processes and its ability to produce reliable products. Employing RMA contributes to risk identification and mitigation early in the product development process and can be an important part of the Design for Reliability process. This presentation will also cover the areas where ReliaSofts Synthesis Platform can provide help in assessing the reliability maturity of an organization.
Tutorial 1
BLUE ROOM Life Data Analysis for Reliability
This tutorial introduces the terminology, models and techniques used in reliability for life data analysis. Probabilistic lifetime models and statistical methods are presented for reliability and lifetime modeling situations. The purpose is to provide attendees with basic coverage of the traditional, fundamental probability models used to describe, improve and optimize system reliability and maintainability. This coverage requires the discussion of some basic concepts from probability and distribution theory. Emphasis is placed on identifying the key assumptions associated with each model and their practical application.
Welcome Reception
A welcome reception on Tuesday evening (with hosted bar and light appetizers) provides a relaxing way to end the first day of the Symposium. This casual gathering will be held from 5:00 to 6:00 p.m.
Optimal Use of Information to Facilitate and Improve Reliability and Maintainability Analyses
Information related to equipment maintainability should always be considered a strategic asset for any business operating in a competitive environment. It is crucial to use this information appropriately, because it is a key ingredient in any decision-making process built on fact-based rather than impression-based management. Using some practical examples of analyses conducted for businesses in the manufacturing industries and hydroelectric utilities, this presentation explains how to identify, extract, process and structure information for reliability and maintainability analyses. It highlights how more precise information improves the accuracy of forecasting models by making it easier to distinguish random failures (specific to the design of an asset) from chronic failures (resulting from faulty maintenance). The presentation also highlights how better structured information can make it easier to establish cause-effect relationships between the failures observed on the assets and the impact measured on the reliability and availability of the systems to which these assets are attached.
zzRED ROOM
Reducing the Validation Cost of an Engineering Design Change When a Failure Occurs on a Censored Test
When an unexpected failure occurs during a long durability censored test, a design change is required. Relying on the same long durability test will jeopardize the timing of the project to validate the new design before it can be released into production. Since failures have occurred on the censored test then this valuable Life information can be utilized along with accelerated stress testing and substantiation testing to shorten the validation cycle and confirm that the new design will not only be better than the old design, but it will also successfully complete the long durability test without failure.
Session 6
BLUE ROOM
Application of Reliability and Engineering Tools from Product Development to Volume Production
Reliability and engineering tools such as DOE, FMEA and FRACAS represent great aids in the transition from initial prototype design to manufacturing in large volume as production scales. This presentation examines how such tools are implemented in an organization that specializes in research and development, prototyping and volume product manufacture. Each gate has its specific requirements and therefore the reliability and engineering tools have to be understood and applied accordingly. The reliability growth and robust design are implemented through loops of continuous improvement with introduction of concepts of Design Robustness Testing (DRT) and Risk Assessment in Design Similarity (RADS). This vision is the key of a successful and reliable business process.
The US Department of Defenses Better Buying Power 2.0 initiatives focus on seven areas to achieve greater efficiency and productivity in defense spending, specifically: 1) achieve affordable programs; 2) control costs throughout the product life cycle; 3) incentivize productivity and innovation in industry and government; 4) eliminate unproductive processes and bureaucracy; 5) promote effective competition; 6) improve tradecraft in acquisition of services; and 7) improve the professionalism of the total acquisition workforce. Many of these focus areas can be enabled with better attention to Design for Reliability, Maintainability, and Supportability (RMS) best practices. Effective total life cycle (cost) management requires a consistent, long-term focused effort. A continuous assessment process enables an organization to continue to define, document and address the capability and limitations imposed by the level of RMS on the system with an emphasis on the operational impacts. Continuous assessment is only possible when an organization prepares for this activity by implementing a data collection process (e.g., FRACAS) that will thoroughly feed the raw data required to continuously monitor metrics of merit to that organization and its products. Other reliability, maintainability and supportability tools that enable better life cycle cost management include: integrated data management system, condition based maintenance/reliability centered maintenance, reliability growth, root cause analysis, Weibull analysis, life cycle cost/affordability analysis, obsolescence and/or diminishing manufacturing sources and material shortages, and life extension assessment.
This presentation provides a proven step-by-step process for quantifying and planning availability improvements in industrial facilities. The approach outlined has been developed and applied by Fluor Corporation to assist numerous clients who need to debottleneck facilities and achieve plant throughput improvements with a minimum of capital expenditure. It addresses availability improvements that are achievable through operational changes, component and configuration enhancement, maintenance process improvement, and training of operations and maintenance personnel.
Session 8
BLUE ROOM
zzRED ROOM
Session 9
BLUE ROOM
Developing a Reliability Improvement Plan for a Main PCB Assembly to Reduce Overall Warranty Costs
As in most other industries, the Professional Cleaning industry segment is seeing integration of an increased number of electronics to perform various machine functions, and new features are added in every new generation of products. For the best customer experience with the end product, the electronic components must be of high reliability. Their low reliability will result in high warranty costs and low customer satisfaction that will affect the companys reputation in the marketplace. This presentation explains an improvement project by Nilfisk-Advance, Inc. that improved a mission-critical electronic component in the machine design. The goal was to improve the controller assembly reliability from 90% to 98% over the service life of a new machine. To achieve the goal, we developed an overall Reliability Program Plan (RPP) as well as a test plan. The RPP outlines a series of actionable items and deliverables throughout the design and production cycle to ensure that a robust product can be shipped to customers. The test plan ensures that the design is properly validated and the key production component could be qualified.
Tutorial 2
BLUE ROOM
Applying Design of Experiments for Selection of Materials and Components in Product Development
A reliability-based experimental design can help select the most robust materials, components and configuration for improved product reliability. This presentation covers the stages of Design of Experiments (DOE) starting with screening, then selecting and optimizing the solution and, finally, verifying the solution with accelerated testing. An example used to illustrate the approach is presented, showing a sensor assembly design modification to provide longer life in a severe temperature and humidity environment. A reliability DOE analysis was used to determine the effect of component, material and process factors on the time to failure in an accelerated temperature/humidity test as the response. The selected design configuration successfully completed the accelerated test to achieve customer expectations for the life of the product.
TAKe
CeNTeR STAGe AT
ARS
BY BeCOMiNG A SpONSOR/eXHiBiTOR
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Session 11
BLUE ROOM
zzRED ROOM
Reliability Assessment of a Low Temperature Lead-Free Solder Used in a High g-Load Environment
Consumer electronics have been converted to lead-free solders as required by the RoHS directive since 2006. Our application has a flex circuit soldered to a ceramic substrate through a hot bar process. Due to material, geometry and Package-On-Package limitations, we cannot use the most commonly available lead-free paste SAC305 due to its high temperature requirements. Instead, we are using the indium alloy 77.2Sn 20.0In 2.8Ag, which has a similar melting point as SnPb solders. This session presents the analysis performed by the paste supplier, the reliability tests performed on our application and the cross-section analysis to evaluate the intermetallic growth and what type of intermetallics are seen as a function of thermal cycle and high temperature storage testing. Different accelerated testing conditions will be used to estimate the solder joint life under the normal use environment.
Session 12
BLUE ROOM
Accelerated life testing (ALT) is a valuable tool. To maximize benefit, there are trade-offs that need to be determined. This presentation will show details of some ALT experiences, terminology, case studies, benefits and considerations for planning. Proper deployment of ALT endeavors can allow a new product to be released with high confidence in its field and reliability performance, which has many advantages in cost containment and warranty expectations.
10
Underground Electrical Cable Fault Forecasting Utilizing the Crow-AMSAA Reliability Growth Model
One of the major economic and reliability challenges facing the Salt River Project (SRP), a major electric and water utility in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area, is managing the replacement of 7,000 miles of direct buried primary electrical cable that is at or approaching the end of its useful life. Since cable replacement programs of this magnitude will require 25 plus years to complete, the ability to model cable faults as a function of cable replacement is critical to developing a sound cable replacement strategy. To accomplish this task, SRP has developed a fault forecasting methodology based upon the Crow-AMSAA reliability growth model. This model has the ability to forecast electrical cable faults based upon replaced cable footage. When used within the underground electrical cable replacement simulation, also developed at SRP, 30 years of cable replacement can be evaluated for the entire direct buried underground electrical cable system to best optimize cable replacement budgets versus future faulting, hence, electrical system reliability.
Session 13
BLUE ROOM
A Review of Reliability Tools and Paradigms for Effectiveness and Best Practices
The Quality profession is noted for continuously developing, updating and implementing methods and tools that have produced a dynamic, diverse and intermixable palette of quality tools that vary from Statistical Process Control (SPC) to Lean Six Sigma. This allows organizations to mix and match techniques in order to adapt them to their products, processes and services. By contrast, some segments of the Reliability profession seem to be frozen in time, using reliability standards and specification templates that have not been updated in decades. The aerospace and defense industries seem to be especially rooted to using traditional reliability methods. However other industries, such as automotive and electronics, are driven by relentless competitive pressure from global low-cost manufacturers (who also excel in product Quality, Reliability and Durability (QRD)), to be innovative and develop enhanced and new reliability methods in order to survive in their markets. This presentation will review traditional reliability methods and paradigms, and compare them to modern methods in order to communicate and promote cross-industry pollination of best practices.
zzRED ROOM
Reliability Growth Planning for the Army Models, Issues and Lessons Learned
Formal reliability growth is still a relatively new concept for the US Army and, as such, the models that are currently used to plan for reliability growth for Army systems are still new themselves. While reliability growth plans can be incredibly valuable for maturing systems reliabilities, there are numerous issues with the current reliability growth planning models that result in heightened program risks. This presentation discusses the currently accepted reliability growth planning model, AMSAAs Planning Model for Program Methodology (PM2), as well as a newer and more capable planning model in AMSAAs Bayesian Continuous Planning Model (BCMP). The detailed assumptions of these two models are presented along with the issues that result from these assumptions. This is presented to demonstrate the work that still needs to be done to improve how the US Army plans for growing the reliability of their systems. This is demonstrated through a thorough case study of the development of multiple reliability growth plans for a generic US Army system that captures how the planning model used influences how requirements need to be set.
Session 14
BLUE ROOM
Our work presents a novel application of reliability and part stress data, which allows for the assessment of system robustness to usage and failure within a set of specifications. By considering the concept of robustness, a novel approach has been developed to put reliability engineering methods in the hands of design engineers using time-domain simulations. The result of this approach is to be a set of engineering design tools that allow the consideration of reliability in the early stages of system design. It is a key ambition that the design tools will permit an analysis of system performance and system reliability in a unified and straightforward way. This will yield better optimized designs and better, more reliable products.
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Session 15
BLUE ROOM
A Practical Methodology for Measuring Success of Organizational Design and Synthesis Using Axiomatic Design and Design for Six Sigma Metrics
Given the premise of the existence of a less than optimal organizational design in the increasing complexity of the government or private sector organization domain, a practical approach to improvement is needed. Anecdotal data in the form of historical observations, Voice of the Customer or other fuzzy empirical metrics typically serve as a means of characterization of this organizational state. In most cases, neither sufficient data nor a reliable and repeatable measurement system is available to effectively portray the organization in the level of clarity and resolution needed to facilitate continuous process improvement. No measurement system, variable ranking, continuous scale or discrimination between levels of goodness currently exists. This presentation will discuss a metric that has been developed to characterize the efficiency of the current state of an organization on a practical measurement system, a ten-point Likert type scale.
zzRED ROOM
The Symposium will conclude with an awards dinner and keynote address on Thursday evening. You are welcome to bring a guest to this event, which provides another opportunity to interact with colleagues in a comfortable and relaxed setting. There will be a hosted bar starting at 6:00 p.m., followed by a buffet dinner, keynote address and awards presentation. As with the rest of the Symposium, the typical style of dress will be business casual.
Advancing Aviation Safety Through Increased Operational Knowledge Andrew Cosner - Head of Safety & Product Assurance - Rolls-Royce North America
Andrew (Andy) Cosner currently serves as Rolls-Royce North Americas Head of Safety & Product Assurance. In this role, he is responsible for the Product Safety Process as well as conducting New Product Introduction audits and in-service Life Cycle Management reviews. Andy began his career at Allison (later acquired by Rolls-Royce) after he graduated from Ohio State University in Mechanical Engineering in 1979. Throughout his career, he has held various roles in turbine aero design, engine development and certification, and various Chief Project Engineer positions. Most notably, hes held Chief Engineer positions on the following engine programs: AE3007, Trent 800, RB211 and Helicopters (250, RR300, T800). In fact, these were positions ranging from one of Rolls-Royces largest products such as the Trent 800 (for the 777) all the way down to a 300 HP helicopter engine for the Robinson R66. In addition, Andy has presented a number of papers and presentations in the aerospace safety arena throughout his career.
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Travel & Accommodations: Attendees are responsible for their own travel arrangements and hotel reservations. Substitutions: Substitutions are allowed provided that ReliaSoft is notified prior to the event start date. Cancellations: Cancellations received up to 10 working days prior to the event start date will be entitled to a refund of the registration fee. After this period, all cancellations will be subject to the entire fee. If purchasing a software/training bundle, seminar cancellations are not refunded; however, you may substitute another attendee or transfer to another course (see Transferring below). Transferring: Provided that ReliaSoft receives notification prior to the event start date, you may transfer to another scheduled event once at no cost; a small fee will be assessed for each additional transfer. If the price for the new event is higher, you will be billed for the difference. There are no refunds when transferring to an event with a lower fee. No Shows: Registrants who do not attend the event and who do not notify ReliaSoft prior to the start date will be subject to the full registration fee and will not have the ability to transfer the registration. Event Cancellation: Although unlikely, ReliaSoft reserves the right to cancel an event at any time up to 2 weeks prior to the start date at ReliaSofts discretion, or at any time prior to or during the course due to circumstances outside ReliaSofts control (including natural disaster, act of terror, etc.). If this occurs, you will automatically be transferred to the next upcoming event. If transfer is not acceptable, registration fees will be refunded upon request. ReliaSoft is not responsible for any other costs that you may incur, including non-refundable airline tickets. Video/Photograph Disclaimer: By registering for this event, you recognize that ReliaSoft Corporation and its affiliates might occasionally take photos or video footage of the event, and you agree to ReliaSofts Video/Photograph Disclaimer Policy. ARS Registration Fee Includes: Attendance to your choice of presentations, the event Proceedings and any other handouts, daily continental breakfast and refreshments during the breaks, the Tuesday night reception and the Thursday night dinner. A certificate of attendance will be provided. Attendees are eligible for 0.1 Educational Units per contact hour and 1 Certified Reliability Professional (CRP) course credit.
Applied Reliability Symposium c/o ReliaSoft Corporation Worldwide Headquarters 1450 S. Eastside Loop Tucson, AZ 85710-6703