Abcde Abla 5.2 Ecological systems 5.3 Long-term effects 5.

4 Large-scale and abrupt impacts 6 Observed and expected effects on social systems 6.1 Food security 6.2 Habitat inundation 7 Proposed policy responses to global warming 7.1 Mitigation 7.2 Adaptation 8 Discourse about global warming 8.1 Political discussion 8.2 Scientific discussion 8.3 Discussion by the public and in popular media 8.3.1 Surveys of public opinion 9 Etymology 10 See also 11 Notes 12 Citations 13 References 14 Further reading 15 External links Observed temperature changes Main article: Instrumental temperature record refer to caption and adjacent text Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstruction s from climate proxies, each smoothed on a decadal scale, with the instrumental temperature record overlaid in black. refer to caption and adjacent text NOAA graph of Global Annual Temperature Anomalies 1950?2012, showing the El Nino -Southern Oscillation refer to caption and image description Earth has been in radiative imbalance since at least the 1970s, where less energ y leaves the atmosphere than enters it. Most of this extra energy has been absor bed by the oceans.[34] It is very likely that human activities substantially con tributed to this increase in ocean heat content.[35] C over the period 1906?20 The Earth's average surface temperature rose by 0.74 }0.18 05. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13 }0.03 C per decade, versus 0.07 }0.02 C per decade). Th e urban heat island effect is very small, estimated to account for less than 0.0 02 C of warming per decade since 1900.[36] Temperatures in the lower troposphere h ave increased between 0.13 and 0.22 C (0.22 and 0.4 F) per decade since 1979, accord ing to satellite temperature measurements. Climate proxies show the temperature to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, w ith regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Lit tle Ice Age.[37] The warming that is evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide range of observations, as documented by many independent scientific groups.[38] Examples include sea level rise (water expands as it warms),[39] wi despread melting of snow and ice,[40] increased heat content of the oceans,[38] increased humidity,[38] and the earlier timing of spring events,[41] e.g., the f lowering of plants.[42] The probability that these changes could have occurred b

y chance is virtually zero.[38] Recent estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Na tional Climatic Data Center show that 2005 and 2010 tied for the planet's warmes t year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 19th century, exceeding 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[43][44][4 5] Estimates by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998 with 2003 and 2010 tied for third warmest year, however, "the error estimate for individual years ... is at least ten times larger than the d ifferences between these three years."[46] The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2010 explains that, "The 2010 nominal value of +0.53 C ranks just ahead of those of 2005 (+0.52 C) and 1 998 (+0.51 C), although the differences between the three years are not statistica lly significant..."[47] Every year from 1986 to 2013 has seen annual average glo bal land and ocean surface temperatures above the 1961-1990 average.[48][49] Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because global temperatures are affecte d by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the strongest El Nino in the p ast century occurred during that year.[50] Global temperature is subject to shor t-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.[51][52] 2010 was also an El Nino year. On the low swing of the osci llation, 2011 as a La Nina year was cooler but it was still the 11th warmest yea r since records began in 1880. Of the 13 warmest years since 1880, 11 were the y ears from 2001 to 2011. Over the more recent record, 2011 was the warmest La Nin a year in the period from 1950 to 2011, and was close to 1997 which was not at t he lowest point of the cycle.[53] Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have incr eased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 C per decade against 0.13 C pe r decade).[54] Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures be cause of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.[55] The northern hemisphere is also naturally wa rmer than the southern hemisphere mainly because of meridional heat transport in the oceans which has a differential of about 0.9 petawatts northwards,[56] with an additional contribution from the albedo differences between the polar region s. Since the beginning of industrialisation the interhemispheric temperature dif ference has increased due to melting of sea ice and snow in the North.[57] Avera ge arctic temperatures have been increasing at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world in the past 100 years; however arctic temperatures are also highly variable.[58] Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than S outhern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.[59] The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects m ean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. C limate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 C (0.9 F) would still occur.[60] Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings) Main article: Attribution of recent climate change refer to caption and adjacent text Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and Earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W /m2). refer to caption and adjacent text This graph, known as the Keeling Curve, shows the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from 1958?2013. Monthly CO2 measurements display s easonal oscillations in an upward trend; each year's maximum occurs during the N orthern Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing season as plan ts remove some atmospheric CO2. The climate system can respond to changes in external forcings.[61][62] External forcings can "push" the climate in the direction of warming or cooling.[63] Exa mples of external forcings include changes in atmospheric composition (e.g., inc

reased concentrations of greenhouse gases), solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions , and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[64] Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and at present are in an overall cooling trend which would be expected to lead towards an ice age, but the 20th century instrum ental temperature record shows a sudden rise in global temperatures.[65] Greenhouse gases Main articles: Greenhouse gas, Greenhouse effect, Radiative forcing, and Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrare d radiation by gases in a planet's atmosphere warm its lower atmosphere and surf ace. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824, discovered in 1860 by John Tynda ll,[66] was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896,[67] a nd was developed in the 1930s through 1960s by Guy Stewart Callendar.[68] refer to caption and image description Annual world greenhouse gas emissions, in 2005, by sector. refer to caption and image description Bubble diagram showing the share of global cumulative energy-related carbon diox ide emissions for major emitters between 1890-2007.[69] On earth, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean warming ef fect of about 33 C (59 F).[70][C] Without the Earth's atmosphere, the temperature ac ross almost the entire surface of the Earth would be below freezing.[71] The maj or greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36?70% of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9?26%; methane (CH4), which causes 4 ?9%; and ozone (O3), which causes 3?7%.[72][73][74] Clouds also affect the radia tion balance through cloud forcings similar to greenhouse gases. Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of green house gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. According to work published in 2007, the concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% r espectively since 1750.[75] These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted f rom ice cores.[76][77][78][79] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO 2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.[80] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation.[81] Estimates of global CO2 emi ssions in 2011 from fossil fuel combustion, including cement production and gas flaring, was 34.8 billion tonnes (9.5 } 0.5 PgC), an increase of 54% above emissi ons in 1990. Coal burning was responsible for 43% of the total emissions, oil 34 %, gas 18%, cement 4.9% and gas flaring 0.7%[82] In May 2013, it was reported th at readings for CO2 taken at the world's primary benchmark site in Mauna Loa sur passed 400 ppm. According to professor Brian Hoskins, this is likely the first t ime CO2 levels have been this high for about 4.5 million years.[83][84] Over the last three decades of the 20th century, gross domestic product per capi ta and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas em issions.[85] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil f uels and land-use change.[86][87]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different re gions, e.g., see the figure opposite. Attribution of emissions due to land-use c hange is a controversial issue.[88][89]:289 Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhous e gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments.[90] In most scenarios, emissions contin ue to rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are reduced.[91][92] Foss il fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st c entury.[93] Emission scenarios, combined with modelling of the carbon cycle, hav e been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future. Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, m odels suggest that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range between 541 and 970 ppm.[94] This is an increase of 90?250% above the conc entration in the year 1750.

The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with ozone depleti on, i.e., the destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons.[95][96] Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on su rface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.[97] refer to caption and body text Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 650,000 years ago to near present, using ice core proxy data and direct measurements Particulates and soot Refer to caption Ship tracks over the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of the United States. The climatic impacts from particulate forcing could have a large effect on climate t hrough the indirect effect. Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface, was observed from 1961 until at least 1990.[98] The main c ause of this dimming is particulates produced by volcanoes and human made pollut ants, which exerts a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sun light. The effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion ? CO2 and aerosols ? have partially offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has b een due to the increase in non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane.[99] Radiati ve forcing due to particulates is temporally limited due to wet deposition which causes them to have an atmospheric lifetime of one week. Carbon dioxide has a l ifetime of a century or more, and as such, changes in particulate concentrations will only delay climate changes due to carbon dioxide.[100] Black carbon is sec ond only to carbon dioxide for its contribution to global warming.[101] In addit ion to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, particul ates have indirect effects on the Earth's radiation budget. Sulfates act as clou d condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud d roplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, known as the Twomey effect.[102] This effect also cau ses droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and m akes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht effec t.[103] Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and ha ve very little radiative effect on convective clouds. Indirect effects of partic ulates represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[104] Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether it is airborne or deposi ted. Atmospheric soot directly absorbs solar radiation, which heats the atmosphe re and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as r ural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be mas ked by atmospheric brown clouds.[105] When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the su rface.[106] The influences of particulates, including black carbon, are most pro nounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.[10 7] Refer to caption and adjacent text Satellite observations of Total Solar Irradiance from 1979?2006. Refer to caption Contribution of natural factors and human activities to radiative forcing of cli mate change.[108] Radiative forcing values are for the year 2005, relative to th e pre-industrial era (1750).[108] The contribution of solar irradiance to radiat ive forcing is 5% the value of the combined radiative forcing due to increases i n the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.[1 09] Solar activity

Main articles: Solar variation and Solar wind Since 1978, output from the Sun has been precisely measured by satellites.[110] These measurements indicate that the Sun's output has not increased since 1978, so the warming during the past 30 years cannot be attributed to an increase in s olar energy reaching the Earth. Climate models have been used to examine the role of the sun in recent climate c hange.[111] Models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when they only take into account variations in solar output and volcanic activity. Models are, however, able to simulate the observed 20th century chang es in temperature when they include all of the most important external forcings, including human influences and natural forcings. Another line of evidence against the sun having caused recent climate change com es from looking at how temperatures at different levels in the Earth's atmospher e have changed.[112] Models and observations show that greenhouse warming result s in warming of the lower atmosphere (called the troposphere) but cooling of the upper atmosphere (called the stratosphere).[113][114] Depletion of the ozone la yer by chemical refrigerants has also resulted in a strong cooling effect in the stratosphere. If the sun were responsible for observed warming, warming of both the troposphere and stratosphere would be expected.[115] Feedback Main article: Climate change feedback Sea ice, shown here in Nunavut, in northern Canada, reflects more sunshine, whil e open ocean absorbs more, accelerating melting. The climate system includes a range of feedbacks, which alter the response of th e system to changes in external forcings. Positive feedbacks increase the respon se of the climate system to an initial forcing, while negative feedbacks reduce the response of the climate system to an initial forcing.[116] There are a range of feedbacks in the climate system, including water vapor, cha nges in ice-albedo (snow and ice cover affect how much the Earth's surface absor bs or reflects incoming sunlight), clouds, and changes in the Earth's carbon cyc le (e.g., the release of carbon from soil).[117] The main negative feedback is t he energy which the Earth's surface radiates into space as infrared radiation.[1 18] According to the Stefan-Boltzmann law, if temperature doubles, radiated ener gy increases by a factor of 16 (2 to the 4th power).[119] Feedbacks are an important factor in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Other factors bei ng equal, a higher climate sensitivity means that more warming will occur for a given increase in greenhouse gas forcing.[120] Uncertainty over the effect of fe edbacks is a major reason why different climate models project different magnitu des of warming for a given forcing scenario. More research is needed to understa nd the role of clouds[116] and carbon cycle feedbacks in climate projections.[12 1] The IPCC projections given in the lede span the "likely" range (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgement)[122] for the selected emissions scenari os. However, the IPCC's projections do not reflect the full range of uncertainty .[123] The lower end of the "likely" range appears to be better constrained than the upper end of the "likely" range.[123] Climate models Main article: Global climate model refer to caption Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climat e models under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to reduce emissions and regionally divided economic development. refer to caption and image description Projected change in annual mean surface air temperature from the late 20th centu ry to the middle 21st century, based on a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B).[

124] This scenario assumes that no future policies are adopted to limit greenhou se gas emissions. Image credit: NOAA GFDL.[125] A climate model is a computerized representation of the five components of the c limate system: Atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, land surface, and biosphere. [126] Such models are based on scientific disciplines such as fluid dynamics, th ermodynamics as well as physical processes such as radiative transfer. The model s take into account various components, such as local air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric properties; ocean temperature, salt content, and circulation; ice cover on land and sea; the transfer of heat and moisture from s oil and vegetation to the atmosphere; chemical and biological processes; solar v ariability and others. Although researchers attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplific ations of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. Re sults from models can also vary due to different greenhouse gas inputs and the m odel's climate sensitivity. For example, the uncertainty in IPCC's 2007 projecti ons is caused by (1) the use of multiple models[123] with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations,[127] (2) the use of differing estimates of hum anities' future greenhouse gas emissions,[123] (3) any additional emissions from climate feedbacks that were not included in the models IPCC used to prepare its report, i.e., greenhouse gas releases from permafrost.[128] The models do not assume the climate will warm due to increasing levels of green house gases. Instead the models predict how greenhouse gases will interact with radiative transfer and other physical processes. One of the mathematical results of these complex equations is a prediction whether warming or cooling will occu r.[129] Recent research has called special attention to the need to refine models with r espect to the effect of clouds[130] and the carbon cycle.[131][132][133] Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various nat ural and human-derived causes. Although these models do not unambiguously attrib ute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is domi nated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.[64] The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past climates.[134] Climate models produce a good match to obser vations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate.[135] Not all effects of global warming are accurately p redicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. Observed Arctic shrinkage has b een faster than that predicted.[136] Precipitation increased proportional to atm ospheric humidity, and hence significantly faster than global climate models pre dict.[137][138] Observed and expected environmental effects Main article: Effects of global warming Refer to caption and adjacent text Projections of global mean sea level rise by Parris and others.[139] Probabiliti es have not been assigned to these projections.[140] Therefore, none of these pr ojections should be interpreted as a "best estimate" of future sea level rise. I mage credit: NOAA. "Detection" is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some def ined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change. Detection do es not imply attribution of the detected change to a particular cause. "Attribut ion" of causes of climate change is the process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of confidence.[141] Detec tion and attribution may also be applied to observed changes in physical, ecolog ical and social systems.[142] Natural systems Main article: Physical impacts of climate change

Global warming has been detected in a number of natural systems. Some of these c hanges are described in the section on observed temperature changes, e.g., sea l evel rise and widespread decreases in snow and ice extent.[143] Anthropogenic fo rcing has likely contributed to some of the observed changes, including sea leve l rise, changes in climate extremes (such as the number of warm and cold days), declines in Arctic sea ice extent, and to glacier retreat.[144] refer to caption Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s . In the 1950s measurements began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass bala nce, reported to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) and the National Sn ow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Over the 21st century,[145] the IPCC projects that global mean sea level could r ise by 0.18-0.59 m.[146] The IPCC do not provide a best estimate of global mean sea level rise, and their upper estimate of 59 cm is not an upper-bound, i.e., g lobal mean sea level could rise by more than 59 cm by 2100.[146] The IPCC's proj ections are conservative, and may underestimate future sea level rise.[147] Over the 21st century, Parris and others[139] suggest that global mean sea level cou ld rise by 0.2 to 2.0 m (0.7-6.6 ft), relative to mean sea level in 1992. Widespread coastal flooding would be expected if several degrees of warming is s ustained for millennia.[148] For example, sustained global warming of more than 2 C (relative to pre-industrial levels) could lead to eventual sea level rise of a round 1 to 4 m due to thermal expansion of sea water and the melting of glaciers and small ice caps.[148] Melting of the Greenland ice sheet could contribute an additional 4 to 7.5 m over many thousands of years.[148] Changes in regional climate are expected to include greater warming over land, w ith most warming at high northern latitudes, and least warming over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.[149] During the 21st century, glac iers[150] and snow cover[151] are projected to continue their widespread retreat . Projections of declines in Arctic sea ice vary.[152][153] Recent projections s uggest that Arctic summers could be ice-free (defined as ice extent less than 1 million square km) as early as 2025-2030.[154] Future changes in precipitation are expected to follow existing trends, with red uced precipitation over subtropical land areas, and increased precipitation at s ubpolar latitudes and some equatorial regions.[155] Projections suggest a probab le increase in the frequency and severity of some extreme weather events, such a s heat waves.[156] Ecological systems Main article: Climate change and ecosystems In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.[143] Future climate change is expected to particularly affec t certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs.[149] It is e xpected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures.[157] Overall, it is expected that clim ate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity o f ecosystems.[158] Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations have led to an increase in ocean aci dity.[159] Dissolved CO2 increases ocean acidity, which is measured by lower pH values.[159] Between 1750 to 2000, surface-ocean pH has decreased by ~0.1, from ~8.2 to ~8.1.[160] Surface-ocean pH has probably not been below ~8.1 during the past 2 million years.[160] Projections suggest that surface-ocean pH could decre ase by an additional 0.3-0.4 units by 2100.[161] Future ocean acidification coul d threaten coral reefs, fisheries, protected species, and other natural resource s of value to society.[159][162] Long-term effects Main article: Long-term effects of global warming On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the magnitude of global warming will be determined primarily by anthropogenic CO2 emissions.[163] This is due to car bon dioxide's very long lifetime in the atmosphere.[163]

Stabilizing global average temperature would require reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions.[163] Reductions in emissions of non-CO2 anthropogenic GHGs (e.g. , methane and nitrous oxide) would also be necessary.[163][164] For CO2, anthrop ogenic emissions would need to be reduced by more than 80% relative to their pea k level.[163] Even if this were to be achieved, global average temperatures woul d remain close to their highest level for many centuries.[163] Large-scale and abrupt impacts Climate change could result in global, large-scale changes in natural and social systems.[165] Two examples are ocean acidification caused by increased atmosphe ric concentrations of carbon dioxide, and the long-term melting of ice sheets, w hich contributes to sea level rise.[166] Some large-scale changes could occur abruptly, i.e., over a short time period, a nd might also be irreversible. An example of abrupt climate change is the rapid release of methane and carbon dioxide from permafrost, which would lead to ampli fied global warming.[167][168] Scientific understanding of abrupt climate change is generally poor.[169] However, the probability of abrupt changes appears to b e very low.[167][170] Factors that may increase the probability of abrupt climat e change include higher magnitudes of global warming, warming that occurs more r apidly, and warming that is sustained over longer time periods.[170] Observed and expected effects on social systems Further information: Effects of global warming#Social systems and Regional effec ts of global warming#Regional impacts Vulnerability of human societies to climate change mainly lies in the effects of extreme weather events rather than gradual climate change.[171] Impacts of clim ate change so far include adverse effects on small islands,[172] adverse effects on indigenous populations in high-latitude areas,[173] and small but discernabl e effects on human health.[174] Over the 21st century, climate change is likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal flo oding, reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health impacts.[175] The economic impacts of climate change are highly uncertain.[176] Small magnitud es of global warming (0 to 2 C, relative to pre-industrial levels) could lead to l osses or gains in world gross domestic product (GDP).[177] Above around 2.5 C, mos t studies suggest losses in world GDP, with greater losses at higher temperature s.[177] Food security See also: Climate change and agriculture Maize field in South Africa. Under present trends, by 2030, maize production in Southern Africa could decreas e by up to 30%, while rice, millet and maize in South Asia could decrease by up to 10%.[178] By 2080, yields in developing countries could decrease by 10% to 25 % on average while India could see a drop of 30% to 40%.[179] By 2100, while the population of three billion is expected to double, rice and maize yields in the tropics are expected to decrease by 20?40% because of higher temperatures witho ut accounting for the decrease in yields as a result of soil moisture and water supplies stressed by rising temperatures.[20] Future warming of around 3 C (by 2100, relative to 1990?2000) could result in incr eased crop yields in mid- and high-latitude areas, but in low-latitude areas, yi elds could decline, increasing the risk of malnutrition.[172] A similar regional pattern of net benefits and costs could occur for economic (market-sector) effe cts.[174] Warming above 3 C could result in crop yields falling in temperate regio ns, leading to a reduction in global food production.[180] Habitat inundation Map showing where natural disasters caused/aggravated by global warming may occu r.

Further information: Effects of climate change on humans#Displacement/migration See also: Climate refugee In small islands and megadeltas, inundation as a result of sea level rise is exp ected to threaten vital infrastructure and human settlements.[181][182] This cou ld lead to issues of homelessness in countries with low lying areas such as Bang ladesh, as well as statelessness for populations in countries such as the Maldiv es and Tuvalu.[183] Proposed policy responses to global warming There are different views over what the appropriate policy response to climate c hange should be.[184] These competing views weigh the benefits of limiting emiss ions of greenhouse gases against the costs. In general, it seems likely that cli mate change will impose greater damages and risks in poorer regions.[185] Mitigation Main article: Climate change mitigation Refer to caption and image description The graph on the right shows three "pathways" to meet the UNFCCC's 2 C target, lab elled "global technology", "decentralised solutions", and "consumption change". Each pathway shows how various measures (e.g., improved energy efficiency, incre ased use of renewable energy) could contribute to emissions reductions. Image cr edit: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.[186] Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of climate cha nge.[187] The IPCC defines mitigation as activities that reduce greenhouse gas ( GHG) emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb GHGs from the atmosphere.[188] Studies indicate substantial potential for future reductions in emissions by a combination of emission-reducing activities such as energy conse rvation, increased energy efficiency, and satisfying more of society's power dem ands with renewable energy and nuclear energy sources.[189] Climate mitigation a lso includes acts to enhance natural sinks, such as reforestation.[189] In order to limit warming to within the lower range described in the IPCC's "Sum mary Report for Policymakers"[190] it will be necessary to adopt policies that w ill limit greenhouse gas emissions to one of several significantly different sce narios described in the full report.[191] This will become more and more difficu lt with each year of increasing volumes of emissions and even more drastic measu res will be required in later years to stabilize a desired atmospheric concentra tion of greenhouse gases. Energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2010 were the highest in history, breaking the prior record set in 2008.[192] Adaptation Main article: Adaptation to global warming Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to clima te change may be planned, either in reaction to or anticipation of climate chang e, or spontaneous, i.e., without government intervention.[193] Planned adaptatio n is already occurring on a limited basis.[189] The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.[189] A concept related to adaptation is "adaptive capacity", which is the ability of a system (human, natural or managed) to adjust to climate change (including clim ate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage o f opportunities, or to cope with consequences.[194] Unmitigated climate change ( i.e., future climate change without efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions) w ould, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt.[195] Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the cl imate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infras tructural needs and emissions reductions.[196] Discourse about global warming Political discussion Main article: Politics of global warming Further information: 2011 United Nations Climate Change Conference, 2012 United

Nations Climate Change Conference, and 2013 United Nations Climate Change Confer ence refer to caption Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention refers explicitly to "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations."[197] In order to stabilize the atmospheric conce ntration of CO 2, emissions worldwide would need to be dramatically reduced from their present level.[198] Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[199] The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent da ngerous human interference of the climate system.[200] As is stated in the Conve ntion, this requires that GHG concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashio n.[201] The Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since then, global emis sions have risen.[202] During negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the Uni ted Nations representing 133 developing nations)[203]:4 pushed for a mandate req uiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions.[204 ] This was justified on the basis that: the developed world's emissions had cont ributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing count ries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their develop ment needs.[89]:290 This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Fram ework Convention,[89]:290 which entered into legal effect in 2005.[205] In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally bindi ng commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expire in 2012.[205] US President George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "i t exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy."[203]:5 At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, severa l UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord.[206] Parties associated with th e Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010)[207]:9 aim to limit the future inc rease in global mean temperature to below 2 C.[208] A preliminary assessment publi shed in November 2010 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggest s a possible "emissions gap" between the voluntary pledges made in the Accord an d the emissions cuts necessary to have a "likely" (greater than 66% probability) chance of meeting the 2 C objective.[207]:10?14 The UNEP assessment takes the 2 C o bjective as being measured against the pre-industrial global mean temperature le vel. To having a likely chance of meeting the 2 C objective, assessed studies gene rally indicated the need for global emissions to peak before 2020, with substant ial declines in emissions thereafter. The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancun in 2010. It produc ed an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent actio n to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming t o 2 C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider s trengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 C.[209] Scientific discussion See also: Scientific opinion on climate change and Surveys of scientists' views on climate change Most scientists agree that humans are contributing to observed climate change.[8 6][210] A meta study of academic papers concerning global warming, published bet ween 1991 and 2011 and accessible from Web of Knowledge, found that among those whose abstracts expressed a position on the cause of global warming, 97.2% suppo rted the consensus view that it is man made.[211] In an October 2011 paper publi shed in the International Journal of Public Opinion Research, researchers from G eorge Mason University analyzed the results of a survey of 489 American scientis ts working in academia, government, and industry. Of those surveyed, 97% agreed that that global temperatures have risen over the past century and 84% agreed th at "human-induced greenhouse warming" is now occurring, only 5% disagreeing that

human activity is a significant cause of global warming.[212][213] National sci ence academies have called on world leaders for policies to cut global emissions .[214] In the scientific literature, there is a strong consensus that global surface te mperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. No scientific body of national o r international standing disagrees with this view.[215][216] Discussion by the public and in popular media Main articles: climate change denial and global warming controversy The global warming controversy refers to a variety of disputes, substantially mo re pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature,[217][218] regarding the nature, causes, and consequences of global warming. The disputed i ssues include the causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the mid-20th century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented or with in normal climatic variations, whether humankind has contributed significantly t o it, and whether the increase is wholly or partially an artifact of poor measur ements. Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, prediction s of additional warming, and what the consequences of global warming will be. From 1990?1997 in the United States, conservative think tanks mobilized to chall enge the legitimacy of global warming as a social problem. They challenged the s cientific evidence, argued that global warming will have benefits, and asserted that proposed solutions would do more harm than good.[219] Some people dispute aspects of climate change science.[210][220] Organizations s uch as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentato rs, and some companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change sc enarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provi ded their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.[221][222][2 23][224] Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent yea rs,[225] or called for policies to reduce global warming.[226] Surveys of public opinion Main article: Public opinion on climate change Researchers at the University of Michigan have found that the public's belief as to the causes of global warming depends on the wording choice used in the polls .[227] In 2007?2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world's po pulation was unaware of global warming, with people in developing countries less aware than those in developed, and those in Africa the least aware. Of those aw are, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of huma n activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countrie s from the Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite belief.[228] There is a sign ificant contrast of the opinions of the concept and the appropriate response bet ween Europe and the United States. Nick Pidgeon of Cardiff University said that "results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each si de of the Atlantic", adding, "The debate in Europe is about what action needs to be taken, while many in the US still debate whether climate change is happening ."[229][230] A 2010 poll by the Office of National Statistics found that 75% of UK respondents were at least "fairly convinced" that the world's climate is chan ging, compared to 87% in a similar survey in 2006.[231] A January 2011 ICM poll in the UK found 83% of respondents viewed climate change as a current or imminen t threat, while 14% said it was no threat. Opinion was unchanged from an August 2009 poll asking the same question, though there had been a slight polarisation of opposing views.[232] By 2010, with 111 countries surveyed, Gallup determined that there was a substan tial decrease in the number of Americans and Europeans who viewed global warming as a serious threat. In the US, a little over half the population (53%) now vie wed it as a serious concern for either themselves or their families; this was 10 % below the 2008 poll (63%). Latin America had the biggest rise in concern, with 73% saying global warming was a serious threat to their families.[233] That glo bal poll also found that people are more likely to attribute global warming to h uman activities than to natural causes, except in the USA where nearly half (47%

) of the population attributed global warming to natural causes.[234] A March?May 2013 survey by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press polled 39 countries about global threats. According to 54% of those questioned, global warming featured top of the perceived global threats.[235] In a January 2013 su rvey, Pew found that 69% of Americans say there is solid evidence that the Earth 's average temperature has been getting warmer over the past few decades, up six points since November 2011 and 12 points since 2009.[236] Etymology The term global warming was probably first used in its modern sense on 8 August 1975 in a science paper by Wally Broecker in the journal Science called "Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?".[237][238][239] Broecker's choice of words was new and represented a significant recognition that the climate was warming; previously the phrasing used by scientists was "inadvertent climate mod ification," because while it was recognized humans could change the climate, no one was sure which direction it was going.[240] The National Academy of Sciences first used global warming in a 1979 paper called the Charney Report, which said : "if carbon dioxide continues to increase, [we find] no reason to doubt that cl imate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be ne gligible."[241] The report made a distinction between referring to surface tempe rature changes as global warming, while referring to other changes caused by inc reased CO2 as climate change.[240] Global warming became more widely popular after 1988 when NASA climate scientist James Hansen used the term in a testimony to Congress.[240] He said: "global wa rming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confide nce a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observ ed warming."[242] His testimony was widely reported and afterward global warming was commonly used by the press and in public discourse.[240] See also Portal icon Global warming portal Portal icon Science portal Book icon Book: Global warming Effects of global warming on oceans Environmental impact of the coal industry Geologic temperature record Global cooling Glossary of climate change History of climate change science Index of climate change articles Greenhouse gas emissions accounting Notes ^ The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Au stralia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, the People's Republic of China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Swede n, and the UK.[243] The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 200 7 statement added Mexico and South Africa. The Network of African Science Academ ies, and the Polish Academy of Sciences have issued separate statements. Profess ional scientific societies include American Astronomical Society, American Chemi cal Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary Associat ion, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Canadian Foundation fo r Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic So ciety, European Academy of Sciences and Arts, European Geosciences Union, Europe an Science Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of Aust ralia, Geological Society of London-Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Counci l, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Union for Quater nary Research, National Association of Geoscience Teachers, National Research Co

uncil (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World Meteorological Organization. ^ Earth has already experienced almost 1/2 of the 2.0 C (3.6 F) described in the Can cun Agreement. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increa sed by about 0.8 C (1.4 F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.[6] ^ Note that the greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature incr ease of about 33 C (59 F) compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface temperature of 33 C (91 F). The average worldwide sur face temperature is about 14 C (57 F).[70] Citations Jump up ^ 2009 Ends Warmest Decade on Record. NASA Earth Observatory Image of th e Day, 22 January 2010. Jump up ^ "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal" p.2, IPCC, Climate Chan ge 2013: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers, Observed Changes in the Climate System, p. 2, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013. Jump up ^ "Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010." p.6,IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for P olicymakers, Observed Changes in the Climate System, p. 6, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013. Jump up ^ Riebeek, H. (June 3, 2010). Global Warming: Feature Articles. Earth Ob servatory, part of the EOS Project Science Office located at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center."Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth fs average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released as people burn fossil fuels." Jump up ^ IPCC AR4, [www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-direct -observations.html#fnr9 Definition of global surface temperature] ^ Jump up to: a b America's Climate Choices. Washington, D.C.: The National Acad emies Press. 2011. p. 15. ISBN 978-0-309-14585-5. "The average temperature of th e Earth fs surface increased by about 1.4 F (0.8 C) over the past 100 years, with abou t 1.0 F (0.6 C) of this warming occurring over just the past three decades." Jump up ^ "Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Ea rth fs surface than any preceding decade since 1850." p.3, IPCC, Climate Change 20 13: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers, Observed Changes in t he Climate System, p. 3, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013. Jump up ^ "Three different approaches are used to describe uncertainties each wi th a distinct form of language. * * * Where uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e .g. observations or model results), then the following likelihood ranges are use d to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%; ext remely likely >95%; very likely >90%; likely >66%;......" IPCC, Synthesis Report , Treatment of Uncertainty, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007. Jump up ^ "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since th e mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. This is an advance since the TAR fs conclusion that 'most of t he observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the inc rease in GHG concentrations'."IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 2.4: Attribution o f climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007. Jump up ^ America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate C hange; National Research Council (2010). Advancing the Science of Climate Change . Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0-309-14588-0. "(p1) ... there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of researc h, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomen on, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of al ternative explanations. * * * (p21-22) Some scientific conclusions or theories h ave been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded a

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Further reading Association of British Insurers (June 2005). Financial Risks of Climate Change ( PDF). Ammann, Caspar; et al. (2007). "Solar influence on climate during the past mille nnium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate Simulation Model " (PDF). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104 (10): 3713?3718. Bibcode:2007PNAS..104.3713A. doi:10.1073/pnas.0605 064103. PMC 1810336. PMID 17360418. "Simulations with only natural forcing compo nents included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ?0.2 C (?1950 AD), whic h is reduced to about half by the end of the century because of increased volcan ism" Barnett, TP; Adam, JC; Lettenmaier, DP; Adam, J. C.; Lettenmaier, D. P. (17 Nove mber 2005). "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in sno w-dominated regions" (abstract). Nature 438 (7066): 303?309. Bibcode:2005Natur.4 38..303B. doi:10.1038/nature04141. PMID 16292301. Behrenfeld, MJ; O'malley, RT; Siegel, DA et al. (7 December 2006). "Climate-driv en trends in contemporary ocean productivity" (PDF). Nature 444 (7120): 752?755. Bibcode:2006Natur.444..752B. doi:10.1038/nature05317. PMID 17151666. Choi, Onelack; Fisher, Ann (May 2005). "The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (M AR) and the U.S". Climate Change 58 (1?2): 149?170. doi:10.1023/A:1023459216609. Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Meier, Mark F. (2005). Glaciers and the Changing Earth Syste m: a 2004 Snapshot (PDF). Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research Occasional Pap er #58. ISSN 0069-6145. Emanuel, KA (4 August 2005). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones ov er the past 30 years" (PDF). Nature 436 (7051): 686?688. Bibcode:2005Natur.436.. 686E. doi:10.1038/nature03906. PMID 16056221. Hansen, James; et al. (3 June 2005). "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications" (PDF). Science 308 (5727): 1431?1435. Bibcode:2005Sci...308.1431H . doi:10.1126/science.1110252. PMID 15860591. Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Hmelo, Laura R.; Sylva, Sean P. (21 February 2003). "Molecula r Fossil Record of Elevated Methane Levels in Late Pleistocene Coastal Waters". Science 299 (5610): 1214?1217. Bibcode:2003Sci...299.1214H. doi:10.1126/science. 1079601. PMID 12595688. Hirsch, Tim (11 January 2006). "Plants revealed as methane source". BBC. Hoyt, Douglas V.; Schatten, Kenneth H. (November 1993). "A discussion of plausib le solar irradiance variations, 1700?1992". Journal of Geophysical Research 98 ( A11): 18,895?18,906. Bibcode:1993JGR....9818895H. doi:10.1029/93JA01944. Karnaukhov, A. V. (2001). "Role of the Biosphere in the Formation of the Earth's Climate: The Greenhouse Catastrophe" (PDF). Biophysics 46 (6). Kenneth, James P.; et al. (14 February 2003). Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Cli mate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis. American Geophysical Union. Keppler, Frank; et al. (18 January 2006). "Global Warming ? The Blame Is not wit h the Plants". Max Planck Society. Lean, Judith L.; Wang, Y.M.; Sheeley, N.R. (December 2002). "The effect of incre asing solar activity on the Sun's total and open magnetic flux during multiple c ycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate". Geophysical Research Letters 29 (24): 2224. Bibcode:2002GeoRL..29x..77L. doi:10.1029/2002GL015880. Lerner, K. Lee; Lerner, K. Lee; Wilmoth, Brenda (26 July 2006). Environmental is sues: essential primary sources. Thomson Gale. ISBN 1-4144-0625-8. McKibben, Bill (2011). The Global Warming Reader. OR Books. ISBN 978-1-935928-36 -2. Muscheler, R; Joos, F; Muller, SA; Snowball, I (28 July 2005). "Climate: How unu sual is today's solar activity?" (PDF). Nature 436 (7012): 1084?1087. Bibcode:20 05Natur.436E...3M. doi:10.1038/nature04045. PMID 16049429. Oerlemans, J. (29 April 2005). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Rec ords" (PDF). Science 308 (5722): 675?677. Bibcode:2005Sci...308..675O. doi:10.11 26/science.1107046. PMID 15746388. Purse, BV; Mellor, PS; Rogers, DJ; Samuel, AR; Mertens, PP; Baylis, M (February

2005). "Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe" (abstra ct). Nature Reviews Microbiology 3 (2): 171?181. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1090. PMID 1 5685226. Revkin, Andrew C (5 November 2005). "Rise in Gases Unmatched by a History in Anc ient Ice". The New York Times. Royal Society (2005). "Joint science academies' statement: Global response to cl imate change". Retrieved 19 April 2009. Roulstone, Ian and Norbury, John (2013). Invisible in the Storm: the role of mat hematics in understanding weather. Princeton University Press. (see Chapter 8) Ruddiman, William F. (15 December 2005). Earth's Climate Past and Future. New Yo rk: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8. Ruddiman, William F. (1 August 2005). Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-1216 4-8. Schelling, Thomas C. (2002). "Greenhouse Effect". In David R. Henderson (ed.). C oncise Encyclopedia of Economics (1st ed.). Library of Economics and Liberty. OC LC 317650570, 50016270 and 163149563 Solanki, SK; Usoskin, IG; Kromer, B; Schussler, M; Beer, J; et al. (23 October 2 004). "Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previou s 11,000 years" (PDF). Nature 431 (7012): 1084?1087. Bibcode:2004Natur.431.1084S . doi:10.1038/nature02995. PMID 15510145. Solanki, Sami K.; et al. (28 July 2005). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity? (Reply)" (PDF). Nature 436 (7050): E4?E5. Bibcode:2005Natur.436E...4S. doi:10.1038/nature04046. Sowers, Todd (10 February 2006). "Late Quaternary Atmospheric CH4 Isotope Record Suggests Marine Clathrates Are Stable". Science 311 (5762): 838?840. Bibcode:20 06Sci...311..838S. doi:10.1126/science.1121235. PMID 16469923. Svensmark, Henrik; et al. (8 February 2007). "Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions". Proceedings of th e Royal Society A (FirstCite Early Online Publishing) 463 (2078): 385?396. Bibco de:2007RSPSA.463..385S. doi:10.1098/rspa.2006.1773. (online version requires reg istration) Walter, KM; Zimov, SA; Chanton, JP; Verbyla, D; Chapin Fs, 3rd; et al. (7 Septem ber 2006). "Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming". Nature 443 (7107): 71?75. Bibcode:2006Natur.443...71W. doi:10. 1038/nature05040. PMID 16957728. Wang, Y.-M.; Lean, J.L.; Sheeley, N.R. (20 May 2005). "Modeling the sun's magnet ic field and irradiance since 1713" (PDF). Astrophysical Journal 625 (1): 522?53 8. Bibcode:2005ApJ...625..522W. doi:10.1086/429689. External links Find more about Global warming at Wikipedia's sister projects Definitions and translations from Wiktionary Media from Commons News stories from Wikinews Quotations from Wikiquote Source texts from Wikisource Textbooks from Wikibooks Learning resources from Wikiversity Research NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ? Global change research NOAA State of the Climate Report ? U.S. and global monthly state of the climate reports Climate Change at the National Academies ? repository for reports Nature Reports Climate Change ? free-access web resource Met Office: Climate change ;? UK National Weather Service Global Science and Technology Sources on the Internet ? commented list Educational Global Climate Modelling (EdGCM) ? research-quality climate change s imulator DISCOVER ? satellite-based ocean and climate data since 1979 from NASA

Global Warming Art ? collection of figures and images Climate & Development Knowledge Network, run by an alliance of organisations tha t include PwC and ODI Educational What Is Global Warming? ? by National Geographic Global Climate Change Indicators ? from NOAA NOAA Climate Services ? from NOAA Skeptical Science: Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism Global Warming Frequently Asked Questions ? from NOAA Understanding Climate Change ? Frequently Asked Questions ? from UCAR Global Warming: Center for Global Studies at the University of Illinois Global Climate Change: NASA's Eyes on the Earth ? from NASA's JPL and Caltech OurWorld 2.0 ? from the United Nations University Center for Climate and Energy Solutions ? business and politics Best Effort Global Warming Trajectories ? Wolfram Demonstrations Project ? by Ha rvey Lam Climate change - EAA-PHEV Wiki Electric vehicles fueled with electricity from wi nd or solar power will reduce greenhouse gas pollution from the transportation s ector. Koshland Science Museum ? Global Warming Facts and Our Future ? graphical introd uction from National Academy of Sciences Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge ? A video presentation by Prof. Ove Hoeg h-Guldberg, University of Auckland Climate Change Indicators in the United States Report by United States Environme ntal Protection Agency, 80 pp. Global Warming Video on the effects of global warming on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea The World Bank - Climate Change - A 4 Degree Warmer World - We must and can avoi d it (Infographic) [show] Nuvola apps kpdf2.png Topics related to Global warming Categories: Global warmingClimate changeClimate historyEconomic problemsGlobaliz ation issues Navigation menu Create accountLog inArticleTalkReadView sourceView history Main page Contents Featured content Current events Random article Donate to Wikipedia Wikimedia Shop Interaction Help About Wikipedia Community portal Recent changes Contact page Tools Print/export Languages Afrikaans Alemannisch ???? Anglisc ??????? Aragones Az?rbaycanca ?????

Ban-lam-gu A u | p { A u | p { A | s p { Bosanski Brezhoneg A p t Catala Cebuano ?e?tina Cymraeg Dansk Deutsch Eesti ? Espanol Esperanto Euskara ????? Fiji Hindi Francais Furlan Gaeilge Gaidhlig Galego ??????? ??? ??????? ?????? Hrvatski Ido Ilokano Bahasa Indonesia Interlingua Islenska Italiano ????? Basa Jawa ????? Kapampangan ??????? ? p x p? p Kiswahili Kreyol ayisyen L u x s y Latina Latvie?u Lietuvi? Magyar M p { u t ~ ?????? ????? ???? Bahasa Melayu M ~ s | ?????????? Nederlands ?????? ????? ???? {

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Nordfriisk Norsk bokmal Norsk nynorsk Occitan ?????? ?????? Polski Portugues Roman? Rumantsch Q y ~ { z Q { y z R p p | p Shqip Sicilianu ????? Simple English Sloven?ina Sloven??ina ????? R { y / srpski Srpskohrvatski / { r p { y Basa Sunda Suomi Svenska Tagalog ????? S p p p/tatarca ?????? ??? S ? y {? Turkce T { p? ~ { p ???? Ti?ng Vi?t Voro Winaray ?? ?????? ? ?emait??ka Edit links This page was last modified on 16 February 2014 at 19:46. Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License; add itional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and P rivacy Policy. WikipediaR is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation, Inc., a non-pr ofit organization. Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersMobile viewWi kimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki Scientific opinion on climate change From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia This article is about scientific opinion on the current climate change, or globa l warming. For public perception and controversy, see Public opinion on climate change and Global warming controversy. refer to caption

Global mean land-ocean temperature change from 1880?2012, relative to the 1951?1 980 mean. The black line is the annual mean and the red line is the 5-year runni ng mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. Source: NASA GISS The scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth's climate system is u nequivocally warming, and it is extremely likely (at least 95% probability) that humans are causing most of it through activities that increase concentrations o f greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning fossil f uels. In addition, it is likely that some potential further greenhouse gas warmi ng has been offset by increased aerosols.[1][2][3][4] This scientific consensus is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or internati onal standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual sc ientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific op inion via their peer-reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreemen t and relative certainty are summarised in these high level reports and surveys. National and international science academies and scientific societies have asses sed current scientific opinion on climate change. These assessments are generall y consistent with the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chan ge (IPCC), summarized below: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as evidenced by increases in globa l average air and ocean temperatures, the widespread melting of snow and ice, an d rising global average sea level.[5] Most of the global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to huma n activities.[6] "Benefits and costs of climate change for [human] society will vary widely by lo cation and scale.[7] Some of the effects in temperate and polar regions will be positive and others elsewhere will be negative.[7] Overall, net effects are more likely to be strongly negative with larger or more rapid warming."[7] "[...] the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of cl imate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time"[8] "The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an u nprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g. floodi ng, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification) and other global change dri vers (e.g. land-use change, pollution, fragmentation of natural systems, over-ex ploitation of resources)"[9] No scientific body of national or international standing maintains a formal opin ion dissenting from any of these main points; the last was the American Associat ion of Petroleum Geologists,[10] which in 2007[11] updated its 1999 statement re jecting the likelihood of human influence on recent climate with its current non -committal position.[12] Some other organizations, primarily those focusing on g eology, also hold non-committal positions. Contents [hide] 1 Synthesis reports 1.1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 1.2 U.S. Global Change Research Program 1.3 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2 Policy 3 Statements by scientific organizations of national or international standing 3.1 Concurring 3.1.1 Academies of science (general science) 3.1.2 Physical and chemical sciences 3.1.3 Earth sciences 3.1.4 Meteorology and oceanography 3.1.5 Paleoclimatology 3.1.6 Biology and life sciences 3.1.7 Human health 3.1.8 Miscellaneous 3.2 Non-committal 3.2.1 American Association of Petroleum Geologists 3.2.2 American Geological Institute

3.2.3 American Institute of Professional Geologists 3.2.4 Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences 3.3 Dissenting 4 Surveys of scientists and scientific literature 5 Scientific consensus 6 See also 7 References 8 External links Synthesis reports[edit] Synthesis reports are assessments of scientific literature that compile the resu lts of a range of stand-alone studies in order to achieve a broad level of under standing, or to describe the state of knowledge of a given subject.[13] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007[edit] Main article: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change In February 2007, the IPCC released a summary of the forthcoming Fourth Assessme nt Report. According to this summary, the Fourth Assessment Report finds that hu man actions are "very likely" the cause of global warming, meaning a 90% or grea ter probability. Global warming in this case is indicated by an increase of 0.75 degrees in average global temperatures over the last 100 years.[14] The New York Times reported that gthe leading international network of climate sc ientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is 'unequivocal' a nd that human activity is the main driver, very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950 h.[15] A retired journalist for The New York Times, William K. Stevens wrote: gThe Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 pe rcent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spew ed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warmi ng of the last 50 years. In the panel fs parlance, this level of certainty is labe led 'very likely'. Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more defini te answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the en dpoint, so far, of a progression. h.[16] The Associated Press summarized the position on sea level rise: On sea levels, the report projects rises of 7 to 23 inches by the end of the cen tury. An additional 3.9 to 7.8 inches are possible if recent, surprising melting of polar ice sheets continues.[17] U.S. Global Change Research Program[edit] formerly the Climate Change Science Program The U.S. Global Change Research Program reported in June 2009[18] that: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuel s (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forest s, agricultural practices, and other activities. The report, which is about the effects that climate change is having in the Unit ed States, also says: Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United St ates. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapo r in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperature s have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temp eratures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7 F. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment[edit] In 2004, the intergovernmental Arctic Council and the non-governmental Internati onal Arctic Science Committee released the synthesis report of the Arctic Climat e Impact Assessment:[19] Climate conditions in the past provide evidence that rising atmospheric carbon d

ioxide levels are associated with rising global temperatures. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), and secondar ily the clearing of land, have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, me thane, and other heat-trapping ("greenhouse") gases in the atmosphere...There is international scientific consensus that most of the warming observed over the l ast 50 years is attributable to human activities.[20] Policy[edit] See also: avoiding dangerous climate change There is an extensive discussion in the scientific literature on what policies m ight be effective in responding to climate change.[21] Some scientific bodies ha ve recommended specific policies to governments (refer to the later sections of the article).[22] The natural and social sciences can play a role in informing a n effective response to climate change.[23] However, policy decisions may requir e value judgements.[23] For example, the US National Research Council[24] has co mmented: The question of whether there exists a "safe" level of concentration of greenhou se gases cannot be answered directly because it would require a value judgment o f what constitutes an acceptable risk to human welfare and ecosystems in various parts of the world, as well as a more quantitative assessment of the risks and costs associated with the various impacts of global warming. In general, however , risk increases with increases in both the rate and the magnitude of climate ch ange. This article mostly focuses on the views of natural scientists. However, social scientists,[21] medical experts,[25] engineers[21] and philosophers[26] have als o commented on climate change science and policies. Climate change policy is dis cussed in several articles: climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation , geoengineering, politics of global warming, climate ethics, and economics of g lobal warming. Statements by scientific organizations of national or international standing[edi t] See also: Global warming controversy#Mainstream scientific position, and challen ges to it This is a list of scientific bodies of national or international standing, that have issued formal statements of opinion, classifies those organizations accordi ng to whether they concur with the IPCC view, are non-committal, or dissent from it. Concurring[edit] Academies of science (general science)[edit] Since 2001 34 national science academies, three regional academies, and both the international InterAcademy Council and International Council of Academies of En gineering and Technological Sciences have made formal declarations confirming hu man induced global warming and urging nations to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The 34 national science academy statements include 33 who have signed joi nt science academy statements and one individual declaration by the Polish Acade my of Sciences in 2007. Joint national science academy statements[edit] 2001 Following the publication of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, seventeen na tional science academies issued a joint statement, entitled "The Science of Clim ate Change", explicitly acknowledging the IPCC position as representing the scie ntific consensus on climate change science. The statement, printed in an editori al in the journal Science on May 18, 2001,[27] was signed by the science academi es of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, Turkey, and th e United Kingdom.[28] 2005 The national science academies of the G8 nations, plus Brazil, China and In dia, three of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the developing world, signed a statement on the global response to climate change. The statement stres ses that the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clea

r to justify nations taking prompt action, and explicitly endorsed the IPCC cons ensus. The eleven signatories were the science academies of Brazil, Canada, Chin a, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the Uni ted States.[29] 2007 In preparation for the 33rd G8 summit, the national science academies of th e G8+5 nations issued a declaration referencing the position of the 2005 joint s cience academies' statement, and acknowledging the confirmation of their previou s conclusion by recent research. Following the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, th e declaration states, "It is unequivocal that the climate is changing, and it is very likely that this is predominantly caused by the increasing human interfere nce with the atmosphere. These changes will transform the environmental conditio ns on Earth unless counter-measures are taken." The thirteen signatories were th e national science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, I ndia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United St ates.[30] 2007 In preparation for the 33rd G8 summit, the Network of African Science Acade mies submitted a joint gstatement on sustainability, energy efficiency, and clima te change h : A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that t he burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change. The I PCC should be congratulated for the contribution it has made to public understan ding of the nexus that exists between energy, climate and sustainability. ? The thirteen signatories were the science academies of Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zi mbabwe, as well as the African Academy of Sciences , [31] 2008 In preparation for the 34th G8 summit, the national science academies of th e G8+5 nations issued a declaration reiterating the position of the 2005 joint s cience academies f statement, and reaffirming gthat climate change is happening and that anthropogenic warming is influencing many physical and biological systems. h Among other actions, the declaration urges all nations to g(t)ake appropriate ec onomic and policy measures to accelerate transition to a low carbon society and to encourage and effect changes in individual and national behaviour. h The thirte en signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 joi nt statement.[32] 2009 In advance of the UNFCCC negotiations to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a joint statemen t declaring, "Climate change and sustainable energy supply are crucial challenge s for the future of humanity. It is essential that world leaders agree on the em ission reductions needed to combat negative consequences of anthropogenic climat e change". The statement references the IPCC's Fourth Assessment of 2007, and as serts that "climate change is happening even faster than previously estimated; g lobal CO2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest prediction s, Arctic sea ice has been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid." The thirteen signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 and 2008 joint statements.[ 22] Polish Academy of Sciences[edit] In December 2007, the General Assembly of the Polish Academy of Sciences (Polska Akademia Nauk), which has not been a signatory to joint national science academ y statements issued a declaration endorsing the IPCC conclusions, and stating: it is the duty of Polish science and the national government to, in a thoughtful , organized and active manner, become involved in realisation of these ideas. Problems of global warming, climate change, and their various negative impacts o n human life and on the functioning of entire societies are one of the most dram atic challenges of modern times. PAS General Assembly calls on the national scientific communities and the nation al government to actively support Polish participation in this important endeavo r.[33] Additional national science academy and society statements[edit]

American Association for the Advancement of Science as the world's largest gener al scientific society, adopted an official statement on climate change in 2006: The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activiti es is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society....The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.[34] Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies in 2008 publishe d FASTS Statement on Climate Change[35] which states: Global climate change is real and measurable...To reduce the global net economic , environmental and social losses in the face of these impacts, the policy objec tive must remain squarely focused on returning greenhouse gas concentrations to near pre-industrial levels through the reduction of emissions. The spatial and t emporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concen trations in the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, b road-scale deforestation and other human activity. United States National Research Council through its Committee on the Science of Climate Change in 2001, published Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Ke y Questions.[36] This report explicitly endorses the IPCC view of attribution of recent climate change as representing the view of the scientific community: The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to huma n activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability. Human-induced warming and associat ed sea level rises are expected to continue through the 21st century... The IPCC 's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely t o have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately refl ects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue.[36] Royal Society of New Zealand having signed onto the first joint science academy statement in 2001, released a separate statement in 2008 in order to clear up "t he controversy over climate change and its causes, and possible confusion among the public": The globe is warming because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Measurement s show that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are well above level s seen for many thousands of years. Further global climate changes are predicted , with impacts expected to become more costly as time progresses. Reducing futur e impacts of climate change will require substantial reductions of greenhouse ga s emissions.[37] The Royal Society of the United Kingdom has not changed its concurring stance re flected in its participation in joint national science academies' statements on anthropogenic global warming. According to the Telegraph, "The most prestigious group of scientists in the country was forced to act after fellows complained th at doubts over man made global warming were not being communicated to the public ".[38] In May 2010, it announced that it "is presently drafting a new public fac ing document on climate change, to provide an updated status report on the scien ce in an easily accessible form, also addressing the levels of certainty of key components."[39] The society says that it is three years since the last such doc ument was published and that, after an extensive process of debate and review,[4 0][41] the new document was printed in September 2010. It summarises the current scientific evidence and highlights the areas where the science is well establis hed, where there is still some debate, and where substantial uncertainties remai n. The society has stated that "this is not the same as saying that the climate science itself is in error ? no Fellows have expressed such a view to the RS".[3 9] The introduction includes this statement: There is strong evidence that the warming of the Earth over the last half-centur y has been caused largely by human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use, including agriculture and deforestation. International science academies[edit] African Academy of Sciences in 2007 was a signatory to the "statement on sustain ability, energy efficiency, and climate change", the joint statement of African science academies, organized through the Network of African Science Academies, c onfirming anthropogenic global warming and presented to the leaders meeting at t

he G8 Summit in Heiligendamm, Germany. European Academy of Sciences and Arts in 2007 issued a formal declaration on cli mate change titled Let's Be Honest: Human activity is most likely responsible for climate warming. Most of the clima tic warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been caused by increased co ncentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Documented long-term climate changes include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in p recipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and extreme weather includin g droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclon es. The above development potentially has dramatic consequences for mankind fs fut ure.[42] European Science Foundation in a 2007 position paper [43] states: There is now convincing evidence that since the industrial revolution, human act ivities, resulting in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases have become a major agent of climate change... On-going and increased efforts to mitigate cl imate change through reduction in greenhouse gases are therefore crucial. InterAcademy Council As the representative of the world fs scientific and engineer ing academies,[44][45] the InterAcademy Council issued a report in 2007 titled L ighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future. Current patterns of energy resources and energy usage are proving detrimental to the long-term welfare of humanity. The integrity of essential natural systems i s already at risk from climate change caused by the atmospheric emissions of gre enhouse gases.[46] Concerted efforts should be mounted for improving energy effi ciency and reducing the carbon intensity of the world economy.[47] International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CA ETS) in 2007, issued a Statement on Environment and Sustainable Growth:[48] As reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to humanproduced emission of greenhouse gases and this warming will continue unabated if present anthropogenic emissions continue or, worse, expand without control. CAE TS, therefore, endorses the many recent calls to decrease and control greenhouse gas emissions to an acceptable level as quickly as possible. Physical and chemical sciences[edit] American Chemical Society[49] American Institute of Physics[50] American Physical Society[51] Australian Institute of Physics[52] European Physical Society[53] Earth sciences[edit] American Geophysical Union[edit] The American Geophysical Union (AGU) statement, adopted by the society in 2003, revised in 2007,[54] and revised and expanded in 2013,[55] affirms that rising l evels of greenhouse gases have caused and will continue to cause the global surf ace temperature to be warmer: gHuman activities are changing Earth fs climate. At the global level, atmospheric c oncentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases have in creased sharply since the Industrial Revolution. Fossil fuel burning dominates t his increase. Human-caused increases in greenhouse gases are responsible for mos t of the observed global average surface warming of roughly 0.8 C (1.5 F) over the pas t 140 years. Because natural processes cannot quickly remove some of these gases (notably carbon dioxide) from the atmosphere, our past, present, and future emi ssions will influence the climate system for millennia. While important scientific uncertainties remain as to which particular impacts w ill be experienced where, no uncertainties are known that could make the impacts of climate change inconsequential. Furthermore, surprise outcomes, such as the unexpectedly rapid loss of Arctic summer sea ice, may entail even more dramatic changes than anticipated." American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America[edit] In May, 2011, the American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Crop Science Society of Am

erica (CSSA), and Soil Science Society of America (SSSA) issued a joint position statement on climate change as it relates to agriculture: A comprehensive body of scientific evidence indicates beyond reasonable doubt th at global climate change is now occurring and that its manifestations threaten t he stability of societies as well as natural and managed ecosystems. Increases i n ambient temperatures and changes in related processes are directly linked to r ising anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. Unless the emissions of GHGs are curbed significantly, their concentrations will continue to rise, leading to changes in temperature, precipitation, and other c limate variables that will undoubtedly affect agriculture around the world. Climate change has the potential to increase weather variability as well as grad ually increase global temperatures. Both of these impacts have the potential to negatively impact the adaptability and resilience of the world fs food production capacity; current research indicates climate change is already reducing the prod uctivity of vulnerable cropping systems.[56] European Federation of Geologists[edit] In 2008, the European Federation of Geologists[57] (EFG) issued the position pap er Carbon Capture and geological Storage : The EFG recognizes the work of the IPCC and other organizations, and subscribes to the major findings that climate change is happening, is predominantly caused by anthropogenic emissions of CO2, and poses a significant threat to human civil ization. It is clear that major efforts are necessary to quickly and strongly reduce CO2 emissions. The EFG strongly advocates renewable and sustainable energy productio n, including geothermal energy, as well as the need for increasing energy effici ency. CCS [Carbon Capture and geological Storage] should also be regarded as a bridgin g technology, facilitating the move towards a carbon free economy.[58] European Geosciences Union[edit] In 2005, the Divisions of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences of the European Geosc iences Union (EGU) issued a position statement in support of the joint science a cademies f statement on global response to climate change. The statement refers to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as "the main representati ve of the global scientific community", and asserts that the IPCC represents the state-of-the-art of climate science supported by the major scienc e academies around the world and by the vast majority of science researchers and investigators as documented by the peer-reviewed scientific literature.[59] Additionally, in 2008, the EGU issued a position statement on ocean acidificatio n which states, "Ocean acidification is already occurring today and will continu e to intensify, closely tracking atmospheric CO2 increase. Given the potential t hreat to marine ecosystems and its ensuing impact on human society and economy, especially as it acts in conjunction with anthropogenic global warming, there is an urgent need for immediate action." The statement then advocates for strategi es "to limit future release of CO2 to the atmosphere and/or enhance removal of e xcess CO2 from the atmosphere."[60] Geological Society of America[edit] In 2006, the Geological Society of America adopted a position statement on globa l climate change. It amended this position on April 20, 2010 with more explicit comments on need for CO2 reduction. Decades of scientific research have shown that climate can change from both natu ral and anthropogenic causes. The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs wi th assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Researc h Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse ]gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s. If current tr ends continue, the projected increase in global temperature by the end of the tw entyfirst century will result in large impacts on humans and other species. Addr essing the challenges posed by climate change will require a combination of adap tation to the changes that are likely to occur and global reductions of CO2 emis sions from anthropogenic sources.[61]

Geological Society of London[edit] In November 2010, the Geological Society of London issued the position statement Climate change: evidence from the geological record: The last century has seen a rapidly growing global population and much more inte nsive use of resources, leading to greatly increased emissions of gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, from the burning of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal ), and from agriculture, cement production and deforestation. Evidence from the geological record is consistent with the physics that shows that adding large am ounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere warms the world and may lead to: highe r sea levels and flooding of low-lying coasts; greatly changed patterns of rainf all; increased acidity of the oceans; and decreased oxygen levels in seawater. There is now widespread concern that the Earth fs climate will warm further, not o nly because of the lingering effects of the added carbon already in the system, but also because of further additions as human population continues to grow. Lif e on Earth has survived large climate changes in the past, but extinctions and m ajor redistribution of species have been associated with many of them. When the human population was small and nomadic, a rise in sea level of a few metres woul d have had very little effect on Homo sapiens. With the current and growing glob al population, much of which is concentrated in coastal cities, such a rise in s ea level would have a drastic effect on our complex society, especially if the c limate were to change as suddenly as it has at times in the past. Equally, it se ems likely that as warming continues some areas may experience less precipitatio n leading to drought. With both rising seas and increasing drought, pressure for human migration could result on a large scale.[62] International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics[edit] In July 2007, the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) adopted a resolution titled gThe Urgency of Addressing Climate Change h. In it, the IUGG con curs with the gcomprehensive and widely accepted and endorsed scientific assessme nts carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and regional an d national bodies, which have firmly established, on the basis of scientific evi dence, that human activities are the primary cause of recent climate change. h The y state further that the gcontinuing reliance on combustion of fossil fuels as th e world fs primary source of energy will lead to much higher atmospheric concentra tions of greenhouse gases, which will, in turn, cause significant increases in s urface temperature, sea level, ocean acidification, and their related consequenc es to the environment and society. h[63] National Association of Geoscience Teachers[edit] In July 2009, the National Association of Geoscience Teachers[64] (NAGT) adopted a position statement on climate change in which they assert that "Earth's clima te is changing [and] "that present warming trends are largely the result of huma n activities": NAGT strongly supports and will work to promote education in the science of clim ate change, the causes and effects of current global warming, and the immediate need for policies and actions that reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.[65] Meteorology and oceanography[edit] American Meteorological Society[edit] The American Meteorological Society (AMS) statement adopted by their council in 2012 concluded: There is unequivocal evidence that Earth fs lower atmosphere, ocean, and land surf ace are warming; sea level is rising; and snow cover, mountain glaciers, and Arc tic sea ice are shrinking. The dominant cause of the warming since the 1950s is human activities. This scientific finding is based on a large and persuasive bod y of research. The observed warming will be irreversible for many years into the future, and even larger temperature increases will occur as greenhouse gases co ntinue to accumulate in the atmosphere. Avoiding this future warming will requir e a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions. The ongoing wa rming will increase risks and stresses to human societies, economies, ecosystems , and wildlife through the 21st century and beyond, making it imperative that so ciety respond to a changing climate. To inform decisions on adaptation and mitig ation, it is critical that we improve our understanding of the global climate sy

stem and our ability to project future climate through continued and improved mo nitoring and research. This is especially true for smaller (seasonal and regiona l) scales and weather and climate extremes, and for important hydroclimatic vari ables such as precipitation and water availability. Technological, economic, and policy choices in the near future will determine th e extent of future impacts of climate change. Science-based decisions are seldom made in a context of absolute certainty. National and international policy disc ussions should include consideration of the best ways to both adapt to and mitig ate climate change. Mitigation will reduce the amount of future climate change a nd the risk of impacts that are potentially large and dangerous. At the same tim e, some continued climate change is inevitable, and policy responses should incl ude adaptation to climate change. Prudence dictates extreme care in accounting f or our relationship with the only planet known to be capable of sustaining human life.[66] Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society[edit] The Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society has issued a Statement o n Climate Change, wherein they conclude: Global climate change and global warming are real and observable ... It is highl y likely that those human activities that have increased the concentration of gr eenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been largely responsible for the observed warming since 1950. The warming associated with increases in greenhouse gases or iginating from human activity is called the enhanced greenhouse effect. The atmo spheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by more than 30% since the start of the industrial age and is higher now than at any time in at least the past 650,000 years. This increase is a direct result of burning fossil fuels, br oad-scale deforestation and other human activity. h[67] Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences[edit] In November 2005, the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences ( CFCAS) issued a letter to the Prime Minister of Canada stating that We concur with the climate science assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 ... We endorse the conclusions of the IPCC assessm ent that 'There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed o ver the last 50 years is attributable to human activities'. ... There is increas ingly unambiguous evidence of changing climate in Canada and around the world. T here will be increasing impacts of climate change on Canada fs natural ecosystems and on our socio-economic activities. Advances in climate science since the 2001 IPCC Assessment have provided more evidence supporting the need for action and development of a strategy for adaptation to projected changes.[68] Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society[edit] In November 2009, a letter to the Canadian Parliament by The Canadian Meteorolog ical and Oceanographic Society states: Rigorous international research, including work carried out and supported by the Government of Canada, reveals that greenhouse gases resulting from human activi ties contribute to the warming of the atmosphere and the oceans and constitute a serious risk to the health and safety of our society, as well as having an impa ct on all life.[69] Royal Meteorological Society (UK)[edit] In February 2007, after the release of the IPCC fs Fourth Assessment Report, the R oyal Meteorological Society issued an endorsement of the report. In addition to referring to the IPCC as gworld fs best climate scientists h, they stated that climat e change is happening as gthe result of emissions since industrialization and we have already set in motion the next 50 years of global warming ? what we do from now on will determine how worse it will get. h[70] World Meteorological Organization[edit] In its Statement at the Twelfth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change presented on November 15, 2006, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms the need to gprevent dangerous a nthropogenic interference with the climate system. h The WMO concurs that gscientif ic assessments have increasingly reaffirmed that human activities are indeed cha nging the composition of the atmosphere, in particular through the burning of fo

ssil fuels for energy production and transportation. h The WMO concurs that gthe pr esent atmospheric concentration of CO2 was never exceeded over the past 420,000 years; h and that the IPCC gassessments provide the most authoritative, up-to-date scientific advice. h [71] Paleoclimatology[edit] American Quaternary Association[edit] The American Quaternary Association (AMQUA) has stated Few credible Scientists now doubt that humans have influenced the documented ris e of global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution, h citing gthe growing bod y of evidence that warming of the atmosphere, especially over the past 50 years, is directly impacted by human activity.[72] International Union for Quaternary Research[edit] The statement on climate change issued by the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) reiterates the conclusions of the IPCC, and urges all nations to take prompt action in line with the UNFCCC principles. Human activities are now causing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases ? including carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, and nitrous oxide ? to rise well above pre-industrial levels c.Increases in greenhouse gases are causing temperatures to rise cThe scientific understanding of climate change is now suffic iently clear to justify nations taking prompt action c.Minimizing the amount of th is carbon dioxide reaching the atmosphere presents a huge challenge but must be a global priority.[73] Biology and life sciences[edit] Life science organizations have outlined the dangers climate change pose to wild life. American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians[74] American Institute of Biological Sciences. In October 2009, the leaders of 18 US scientific societies and organizations sent an open letter to the United States Senate reaffirming the scientific consensus that climate change is occurring an d is primarily caused by human activities. The American Institute of Biological Sciences (AIBS) adopted this letter as their official position statement.[75][76 ] The letter goes on to warn of predicted impacts on the United States such as s ea level rise and increases in extreme weather events, water scarcity, heat wave s, wildfires, and the disturbance of biological systems. It then advocates for a dramatic reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases.[77] American Society for Microbiology[78] Australian Coral Reef Society[79] Institute of Biology (UK)[80] Society of American Foresters issued two position statements pertaining to clima te change in which they cite the IPCC[81] and the UNFCCC.[82] The Wildlife Society (international)[83] Human health[edit] A number of health organizations have warned about the numerous negative health effects of global warming American Academy of Pediatrics[84] American College of Preventive Medicine[85] American Medical Association[86] American Public Health Association[87] Australian Medical Association in 2004[88] and in 2008[89] World Federation of Public Health Associations[90] World Health Organization[91] There is now widespread agreement that the Earth is warming, due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activity. It is also clear that current trends in energy use, development, and population growth will lead to continuing ? and more severe ? climate change. The changing climate will inevitably affect the basic requirements for maintaini ng health: clean air and water, sufficient food and adequate shelter. Each year, about 800,000 people die from causes attributable to urban air pollution, 1.8 m illion from diarrhoea resulting from lack of access to clean water supply, sanit ation, and poor hygiene, 3.5 million from malnutrition and approximately 60,000

in natural disasters. A warmer and more variable climate threatens to lead to hi gher levels of some air pollutants, increase transmission of diseases through un clean water and through contaminated food, to compromise agricultural production in some of the least developed countries, and increase the hazards of extreme w eather. Miscellaneous[edit] A number of other national scientific societies have also endorsed the opinion o f the IPCC: American Astronomical Society[92] American Statistical Association[93] Engineers Canada The Institution of Engineers Australia[94] International Association for Great Lakes Research[95] Institute of Professional Engineers New Zealand[96] The World Federation of Engineering Organizations (WFEO) Non-committal[edit] American Association of Petroleum Geologists[edit] As of June 2007, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Positio n Statement on climate change stated: the AAPG membership is divided on the degree of influence that anthropogenic CO2 has on recent and potential global temperature increases ... Certain climate si mulation models predict that the warming trend will continue, as reported throug h NAS, AGU, AAAS and AMS. AAPG respects these scientific opinions but wants to a dd that the current climate warming projections could fall within well-documente d natural variations in past climate and observed temperature data. These data d o not necessarily support the maximum case scenarios forecast in some models.[97 ] Prior to the adoption of this statement, the AAPG was the only major scientific organization that rejected the finding of significant human influence on recent climate, according to a statement by the Council of the American Quaternary Asso ciation.[10] Explaining the plan for a revision, AAPG president Lee Billingsly w rote in March 2007: Members have threatened to not renew their memberships c if AAPG does not alter it s position on global climate change... And I have been told of members who alrea dy have resigned in previous years because of our current global climate change position c The current policy statement is not supported by a significant number o f our members and prospective members.[98] AAPG President John Lorenz announced the "sunsetting" of AAPG fs Global Climate Ch ange Committee in January 2010. The AAPG Executive Committee determined: Climate change is peripheral at best to our science [ c] AAPG does not have credib ility in that field [ c] and as a group we have no particular knowledge of global atmospheric geophysics.[99] American Geological Institute[edit] In 1999, the American Geological Institute (AGI) issued the position statement e fG lobal Climate Change f f: The American Geological Institute (AGI) strongly supports education concerning t he scientific evidence of past climate change, the potential for future climate change due to the current building of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and the policy options available. Understanding the interactions between the solid Earth, the oceans, the biospher e, and the atmosphere both in the present and over time is critical for accurate ly analyzing and predicting global climate change due to natural processes and p ossible human influences.[100] American Institute of Professional Geologists[edit] In 2009, the American Institute of Professional Geologists[101] (AIPG) sent a st atement to President Barack Obama and other US government officials: The geological professionals in AIPG recognize that climate change is occurring and has the potential to yield catastrophic impacts if humanity is not prepared to address those impacts. It is also recognized that climate change will occur r egardless of the cause. The sooner a defensible scientific understanding can be

developed, the better equipped humanity will be to develop economically viable a nd technically effective methods to support the needs of society.[102] Concerned that the original statement issued in March 2009 was too ambiguous, AI PG fs National Executive Committee approved a revised position statement issued in January 2010: The geological professionals in AIPG recognize that climate change is occurring regardless of cause. AIPG supports continued research into all forces driving cl imate change.[103] In March 2010, AIPG fs Executive Director issued a statement regarding polarizatio n of opinions on climate change within the membership and announced that the AIP G Executive had made a decision to cease publication of articles and opinion pie ces concerning climate change in AIPG fs news journal, The Professional Geologist. [104] The Executive Director said that gthe question of anthropogenicity of clima te change is contentious. h[105] Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences[edit] The science of global climate change is still evolving and our understanding of this vital Earth system is not as developed as is the case for other Earth syste ms such as plate tectonics. What is known with certainty is that regardless of t he causes, our global climate will continue to change for the foreseeable future ... The level of CO2 in our atmosphere is now greater than at any time in the pa st 500,000 years; there will be consequences for our global climate and natural systems as a result.[106] Dissenting[edit] See also: List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of gl obal warming As of 2007, when the American Association of Petroleum Geologists released a rev ised statement,[11] no scientific body of national or international standing rej ected the findings of human-induced effects on climate change.[10][12] Surveys of scientists and scientific literature[edit]

Summary of opinions from climate and earth scientists regarding climate change. Just over 97% of published climate researchers say humans are causing global war ming.[107][108][109] Main article: Surveys of scientists' views on climate change Various surveys have been conducted to evaluate scientific opinion on global war ming. They have concluded that the majority of scientists support the idea of an thropogenic climate change. In 2004, the geologist and historian of science Naomi Oreskes summarized a study of the scientific literature on climate change.[110] She analyzed 928 abstracts of papers from refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003 and concluded that there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate ch ange. Oreskes divided the abstracts into six categories: explicit endorsement of the c onsensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleocl imate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Seventy-five per cent o f the abstracts were placed in the first three categories (either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view); 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate , thus taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change. None of the a bstracts disagreed with the consensus position, which the author found to be "re markable". According to the report, "authors evaluating impacts, developing meth ods, or studying paleoclimatic change might believe that current climate change is natural. However, none of these papers argued that point." In 2007, Harris Interactive surveyed 489 randomly selected members of either the American Meteorological Society or the American Geophysical Union for the Stati stical Assessment Service (STATS) at George Mason University. 97% of the scienti sts surveyed agreed that global temperatures had increased during the past 100 y

ears; 84% said they personally believed human-induced warming was occurring, and 74% agreed that "currently available scientific evidence" substantiated its occ urrence. Catastrophic effects in 50?100 years would likely be observed according to 41%, while 44% thought the effects would be moderate and about 13 percent sa w relatively little danger. 5% said they thought human activity did not contribu te to greenhouse warming.[111][112][113][114] Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch conducted a survey in August 2008 of 2058 climat e scientists from 34 different countries.[115] A web link with a unique identifi er was given to each respondent to eliminate multiple responses. A total of 373 responses were received giving an overall response rate of 18.2%. No paper on cl imate change consensus based on this survey has been published yet (February 201 0), but one on another subject has been published based on the survey.[116] The survey was composed of 76 questions split into a number of sections. There w ere sections on the demographics of the respondents, their assessment of the sta te of climate science, how good the science is, climate change impacts, adaptati on and mitigation, their opinion of the IPCC, and how well climate science was b eing communicated to the public. Most of the answers were on a scale from 1 to 7 from 'not at all' to 'very much'. To the question "How convinced are you that climate change, whether natural or a nthropogenic, is occurring now?", 67.1% said they very much agreed, 26.7% agreed to some large extent, 6.2% said to they agreed to some small extent (2?4), none said they did not agree at all. To the question "How convinced are you that mos t of recent or near future climate change is, or will be, a result of anthropoge nic causes?" the responses were 34.6% very much agree, 48.9% agreeing to a large extent, 15.1% to a small extent, and 1.35% not agreeing at all. A poll performed by Peter Doran and Maggie Kendall Zimmerman at University of Il linois at Chicago received replies from 3,146 of the 10,257 polled Earth scienti sts. Results were analyzed globally and by specialization. 76 out of 79 climatol ogists who "listed climate science as their area of expertise and who also have published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of c limate change" believed that mean global temperatures had risen compared to pre1800s levels. Seventy-five of 77 believed that human activity is a significant f actor in changing mean global temperatures. Among all respondents, 90% agreed th at temperatures have risen compared to pre-1800 levels, and 82% agreed that huma ns significantly influence the global temperature. Economic geologists and meteo rologists were among the biggest doubters, with only 47 percent and 64 percent, respectively, believing in significant human involvement. The authors summarised the findings: It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role play ed by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuanc es and scientific basis of long-term climate processes.[117] A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the Unite d States (PNAS) reviewed publication and citation data for 1,372 climate researc hers and drew the following two conclusions: (i) 97?98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field supp ort the tenets of ACC (Anthropogenic Climate Change) outlined by the Intergovern mental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scie ntific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.[118] A 2013 paper in Environmental Research Letters reviewed 11,944 abstracts of scie ntific papers, finding 4,014 which discussed the cause of recent global warming and reporting: Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus posit ion that humans are causing global warming.[119] Additionally, the authors of the studies were invited to categorise their own re search papers, of which 1,381 discussed the cause of recent global warming, and: Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consens us. James Lawrence Powell, a former member of the National Science Board and current executive director of the National Physical Science Consortium, analyzed publis

hed research on global warming and climate change between 1991 and 2012 and foun d that of the 13,950 articles in peer-reviewed journals, only 24 rejected anthro pogenic global warming.[120] A follow-up analysis looking at 2,258 peer-reviewed climate articles with 9,136 authors published between November 2012 and Decembe r 2013 revealed that only one of the 9,136 authors rejected anthropogenic global warming.[121] Scientific consensus[edit] See also: Scientific consensus A question that frequently arises in popular discussion of climate change is whe ther there is a scientific consensus on climate change.[122] Several scientific organizations have explicitly used the term "consensus" in their statements: American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2006: "The conclusions in t his statement reflect the scientific consensus represented by, for example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the Joint National Academies' sta tement."[34] US National Academy of Sciences: "In the judgment of most climate scientists, Ea rth fs warming in recent decades has been caused primarily by human activities tha t have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. ... On climat e change, [the National Academies f reports] have assessed consensus findings on t he science..."[123] Joint Science Academies' statement, 2005: "We recognise the international scient ific consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."[124] Joint Science Academies' statement, 2001: "The work of the Intergovernmental Pan el on Climate Change (IPCC) represents the consensus of the international scient ific community on climate change science. We recognise IPCC as the world fs most r eliable source of information on climate change and its causes, and we endorse i ts method of achieving this consensus."[28] American Meteorological Society, 2003: "The nature of science is such that there is rarely total agreement among scientists. Individual scientific statements an d papers?the validity of some of which has yet to be assessed adequately?can be exploited in the policy debate and can leave the impression that the scientific community is sharply divided on issues where there is, in reality, a strong scie ntific consensus.... IPCC assessment reports are prepared at approximately fiveyear intervals by a large international group of experts who represent the broad range of expertise and perspectives relevant to the issues. The reports strive to reflect a consensus evaluation of the results of the full body of peer-review ed research.... They provide an analysis of what is known and not known, the deg ree of consensus, and some indication of the degree of confidence that can be pl aced on the various statements and conclusions."[125] Network of African Science Academies: gA consensus, based on current evidence, no w exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the ma in source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely resp onsible for driving this change. h[31] International Union for Quaternary Research, 2008: "INQUA recognizes the interna tional scientific consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IP CC)."[73] Australian Coral Reef Society,[126] 2006: "There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth fs climate is changing as a result of the build-up of gree nhouse gases.... There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs are heavil y affected by the activities of man and there are significant global influences that can make reefs more vulnerable such as global warming...."[127] See also[edit] Portal icon Global warming portal Portal icon Energy portal 4 Degrees and Beyond International Climate Conference Economics of global warming Effects of global warming Global warming controversy

History of climate change science International Year of Planet Earth List of authors from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis List of climate scientists List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warmi ng National Registry of Environmental Professionals survey on climate change Public opinion on climate change References[edit] Jump up ^ "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespre ad melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level." IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 1.1: Observations of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007. Jump up ^ IPCC, "Summary for Policymakers", Detection and Attribution of Climate Change, " It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century (page 15) and In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likel ihood of an outcome or a result: (...) extremely likely: 95?100% (page 2).", in IP CC AR5 WG1 2013. Jump up ^ IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 2.4: Attribution of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007."It is likely that increases in GHG concentrations alone woul d have caused more warming than observed because volcanic and anthropogenic aero sols have offset some warming that would otherwise have taken place." Jump up ^ [Notes-SciPanel] America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Sci ence of Climate Change; National Research Council (2010). Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0-309-14 588-0. "(p1) ... there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined tho roughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. * * * (p21-22) Some scientific conclusi ons or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequentl y being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories ar e then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to huma n activities." Jump up ^ "Summary for Policymakers", 1. Observed changes in climate and their e ffects, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007 Jump up ^ "Summary for Policymakers", 2. Causes of change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007 ^ Jump up to: a b c Parry, M.L., et al., "Technical summary", Industry, settleme nt and society, in: Box TS.5. The main projected impacts for systems and sectors , in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007 Jump up ^ IPCC, "Summary for Policymakers", Magnitudes of impact, in IPCC AR4 WG 2 2007 Jump up ^ "Synthesis report", Ecosystems, in: Sec 3.3.1 Impacts on systems and s ectors, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007 ^ Jump up to: a b c Julie Brigham-Grette (September 2006). "Petroleum Geologists ' Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate" (PDF). Eos 87 (36). Retrieved 200 7-01-23. "The AAPG stands alone among scientific societies in its denial of huma n-induced effects on global warming." ^ Jump up to: a b AAPG Climate Change June 2007 ^ Jump up to: a b Oreskes 2007, p. 68 Jump up ^ Ogden, Aynslie and Cohen, Stewart (2002). Integration and Synthesis: A ssessing Climate Change Impacts in Northern Canada (PDF). Retrieved 2009-04-12. Jump up ^ "Warming 'very likely' human-made". BBC News (BBC). 2007-02-01. Retrie ved 2007-02-01. Jump up ^ Rosenthal, Elisabeth; Revkin, Andrew C. (2007-02-03). "Science Panel C

alls Global Warming eUnequivocal f". New York Times. Retrieved 2010-08-28. "the lea ding international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first tim e that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main drive r, 'very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950" Jump up ^ Stevens, William K. (2007-02-06). "On the Climate Change Beat, Doubt G ives Way to Certainty". New York Times. Retrieved 2007-02-06. "The Intergovernme ntal Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent th at emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of th e last 50 years. In the panel fs parlance, this level of certainty is labeled gvery likely. h Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression." Jump up ^ "U.N. Report: Global Warming Man-Made, Basically Unstoppable". Fox New s. Retrieved 2012-07-30. Jump up ^ Downloads.globalchange.gov Jump up ^ "Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment New Sci entific Consensus: Arctic Is Warming Rapidly". UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 2004-11-08. Re trieved 2010-01-20. Jump up ^ "ACIA Display". Amap.no. Retrieved 2012-07-30. ^ Jump up to: a b c The literature has been assessed by the IPCC, e.g., see: Adger, W.N., et al., Ch 17: Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constra ints and Capacity, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007 Barker, T., et al., Technical summary, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007 ^ Jump up to: a b 2009 Joint Science Academies f Statement ^ Jump up to: a b "Question 1", 1.1, in IPCC TAR SYR 2001, p. 38 Jump up ^ Summary, in US NRC 2001, p. 4 Jump up ^ Doha Declaration on Climate, Health and Wellbeing. This statement has been signed by numerous medical organizations, including the World Medical Assoc iation. Jump up ^ Arnold, D.G., ed. (March 2011), The Ethics of Global Climate Change, C ambridge University Press, ISBN 9781107000698 Jump up ^ "Editorial: The Science of Climate Change". Science 292 (5520): 1261. May 18, 2001. doi:10.1126/science.292.5520.1261. ^ Jump up to: a b The Science of Climate Change, The Royal Society Jump up ^ Joint science academies f statement: Global response to climate change, 2005 Jump up ^ 2007 Joint Science Academies' Statement ^ Jump up to: a b "Joint statement by the Network of African Science Academies ( NASAC) to the G8 on sustainability, energy efficiency and climate change" (PDF). Network of African Science Academies. 2007. Retrieved 2012-08-28. Jump up ^ 2008 Joint Science Academies f Statement Jump up ^ "Stanowisko Zgromadzenia Ogolnego PAN z dnia 13 grudnia 2007 r" (in Po lish). Polish Academy of Sciences. Retrieved 2009-06-16. Note: As of 16 June 200 9, PAS has not issued this statement in English, all citations have been transla ted from Polish. ^ Jump up to: a b AAAS Board Statement on Climate Change www.aaas.org December 2 006 Jump up ^ FASTS Statement on Climate Change, 2008 "Global climate change is real and measurable. Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface te mperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7 C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years. Key vulnerabilities arising from climate cha nge include water resources, food supply, health, coastal settlements, biodivers ity and some key ecosystems such as coral reefs and alpine regions. As the atmos pheric concentration of greenhouse gases increases, impacts become more severe a nd widespread. To reduce the global net economic, environmental and social losse s in the face of these impacts, the policy objective must remain squarely focuse d on returning greenhouse gas concentrations to near pre-industrial levels throu gh the reduction of emissions. The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming c an be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, whic

h are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and oth er human activity." ^ Jump up to: a b Committee on the Science of Climate Change, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council (2001). Climate Change Science: An A nalysis of Some Key Questions. Washington DC: National Academy Press. ISBN 0-309 -07574-2. Jump up ^ Wratt, David; Renwick, James (2008-07-10). "Climate change statement f rom the Royal Society of New Zealand". The Royal Society of New Zealand. Retriev ed 2010-01-20. Jump up ^ Gray, Louise (May 29, 2010). "Royal Society to publish guide on climat e change to counter claims of 'exaggeration'". The Daily Telegraph (London). ^ Jump up to: a b "New guide to science of climate change". The Royal Society. R etrieved 9 June 2010. Jump up ^ Harrabin, Roger (27 May 2010). "Society to review climate message". BB C News. Retrieved 9 June 2010. Jump up ^ Gardner, Dan (8 June 2010). "Some excitable climate-change deniers jus t don't understand what science is". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved 9 June 2010.[de ad link] Jump up ^ European Academy of Sciences and Arts Let's Be Honest Jump up ^ European Science Foundation Position Paper Impacts of Climate Change o n the European Marine and Coastal Environment ? Ecosystems Approach, 2007, pp. 7 ?10 "There is now convincing evidence that since the industrial revolution, huma n activities, resulting in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases have be come a major agent of climate change. These greenhouse gases affect the global c limate by retaining heat in the troposphere, thus raising the average temperatur e of the planet and altering global atmospheric circulation and precipitation pa tterns. While on-going national and international actions to curtail and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are essential, the levels of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere, and their impact, are likely to persist for several decades. On-going and increased efforts to mitigate climate change through reduction in greenhouse gases are therefore crucial." Jump up ^ Panel Urges Global Shift on Sources of Energy Jump up ^ "InterAcademy Council". InterAcademy Council. Retrieved 2012-07-30. Jump up ^ "InterAcademy Council". InterAcademy Council. Retrieved 2012-07-30. Jump up ^ "InterAcademy Council". InterAcademy Council. Retrieved 2012-07-30. Jump up ^ http://www.caets.org/nae/naecaets.nsf/(weblinks)/WSAN-78QL9A?OpenDocum ent Jump up ^ American Chemical Society Global Climte Change "Careful and comprehens ive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth fs climate sys tem is changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol particles (IPCC, 2007). There is very little room f or doubt that observed climate trends are due to human activities. The threats a re serious and action is urgently needed to mitigate the risks of climate change . The reality of global warming, its current serious and potentially disastrous impacts on Earth system properties, and the key role emissions from human activi ties play in driving these phenomena have been recognized by earlier versions of this ACS policy statement (ACS, 2004), by other major scientific societies, inc luding the American Geophysical Union (AGU, 2003), the American Meteorological S ociety (AMS, 2007) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science ( AAAS, 2007), and by the U. S. National Academies and ten other leading national academies of science (NA, 2005)." Jump up ^ American Institute of Physics Statement supporting AGU statement on hu man-induced climate change, 2003 "The Governing Board of the American Institute of Physics has endorsed a position statement on climate change adopted by the Am erican Geophysical Union (AGU) Council in December 2003." Jump up ^ American Physical Society Climate Change Policy Statement, November 20 07 "Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosph ere in ways that affect the Earth's climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dio xide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fo ssil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes. The e

vidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actio ns are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth fs physical and ecological syst ems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must redu ce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now. Because the complexity of the cl imate makes accurate prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to u nderstand the effects of human activity on the Earth fs climate, and to provide th e technological options for meeting the climate challenge in the near and longer terms. The APS also urges governments, universities, national laboratories and its membership to support policies and actions that will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Jump up ^ AIP science policy document., 2005 "Policy: The AIP supports a reducti on of the green house gas emissions that are leading to increased global tempera tures, and encourages research that works towards this goal. Reason: Research in Australia and overseas shows that an increase in global temperature will advers ely affect the Earth fs climate patterns. The melting of the polar ice caps, combi ned with thermal expansion, will lead to rises in sea levels that may impact adv ersely on our coastal cities. The impact of these changes on biodiversity will f undamentally change the ecology of Earth." Jump up ^ EPS Position Paper Energy for the future: The Nuclear Option, 2007 "Th e emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, among which carbon dioxide is the main contributor, has amplified the natural greenhouse effect and led to global warming. The main contribution stems from burning fossil fuels. A further increa se will have decisive effects on life on earth. An energy cycle with the lowest possible CO2 emission is called for wherever possible to combat climate change." Jump up ^ "AGU Position Statement: Human Impacts on Climate". Agu.org. Retrieved 2012-07-30. Jump up ^ "Human-induced Climate Change Requires Urgent Action". Position Statem ent. American Geophysical Union. Retrieved 14 August 2013. Jump up ^ ASA, CSSA, and SSSA Position Statement on Climate Change Jump up ^ "EFG Website | Home". Eurogeologists.de. 2011-08-10. Retrieved 2012-07 -30. Jump up ^ EFG Carbon Capture and geological Storage Jump up ^ http://www.egu.eu/statements/position-statement-of-the-divisions-of-at mospheric-and-climate-sciences-7-july-2005.html Jump up ^ http://www.egu.eu/statements/egu-position-statement-on-ocean-acidifica tion.html Jump up ^ "The Geological Society of America - Position Statement on Global Clim ate Change". Geosociety.org. Retrieved 2012-07-30. Jump up ^ "Geological Society - Climate change: evidence from the geological rec ord". Geolsoc.org.uk. Retrieved 2012-07-30. Jump up ^ IUGG Resolution 6 Jump up ^ http://www.nagt.org/index.html Jump up ^ http://nagt.org/nagt/organization/ps-climate.html Jump up ^ "AMS Information Statement on Climate Change". Ametsoc.org. 2012-08-20 . Retrieved 2012-08-27. Jump up ^ "Statement". AMOS. Retrieved 2012-07-30. Jump up ^ CFCAS Letter to PM, November 25, 2005 Jump up ^ Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Letter to Stephen Ha rper (Updated, 2007) Jump up ^ http://www.rmets.org/news/detail.php?ID=332 Jump up ^ WMO fs Statement at the Twelfth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. Jump up ^ AMQUA gPetroleum Geologists f Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate h ^ Jump up to: a b INQUA Statement On Climate Change. Jump up ^ AAWV Position Statement on Climate Change, Wildlife Diseases, and Wild life Health "There is widespread scientific agreement that the world fs climate is changing and that the weight of evidence demonstrates that anthropogenic factor s have and will continue to contribute significantly to global warming and clima te change. It is anticipated that continuing changes to the climate will have se rious negative impacts on public, animal and ecosystem health due to extreme wea

ther events, changing disease transmission dynamics, emerging and re-emerging di seases, and alterations to habitat and ecological systems that are essential to wildlife conservation. Furthermore, there is increasing recognition of the inter -relationships of human, domestic animal, wildlife, and ecosystem health as illu strated by the fact the majority of recent emerging diseases have a wildlife ori gin." Jump up ^ AIBS Position Statements "Observations throughout the world make it cl ear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstra tes that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver ." Jump up ^ Scientific societies warn Senate: climate change is real, Ars Technica , October 22, 2009 Jump up ^ Letter to US Senators, October 2009 Jump up ^ Global Environmental Change ? Microbial Contributions, Microbial Solut ions (PDF), American Society For Microbiology, May 2006 They recommended "reduci ng net anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere h and gminimizing anthropogeni c disturbances of h atmospheric gases. Carbon dioxide concentrations were relative ly stable for the past 10,000 years but then began to increase rapidly about 150 years ago cas a result of fossil fuel consumption and land use change. Of course, changes in atmospheric composition are but one component of global change, whic h also includes disturbances in the physical and chemical conditions of the ocea ns and land surface. Although global change has been a natural process throughou t Earth fs history, humans are responsible for substantially accelerating presentday changes. These changes may adversely affect human health and the biosphere o n which we depend. Outbreaks of a number of diseases, including Lyme disease, ha ntavirus infections, dengue fever, bubonic plague, and cholera, have been linked to climate change." Jump up ^ Australian Coral Reef Society official letter, 2006 Official communiqu e regarding the Great Barrier Reef and the "world-wide decline in coral reefs th rough processes such as overfishing, runoff of nutrients from the land, coral bl eaching, global climate change, ocean acidification, pollution", etc.: There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth fs climate is changing as a re sult of the build-up of greenhouse gases. The IPCC (involving over 3,000 of the world fs experts) has come out with clear conclusions as to the reality of this ph enomenon. One does not have to look further than the collective academy of scien tists worldwide to see the string (of) statements on this worrying change to the earth fs atmosphere. There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs are hea vily affected by the activities of man and there are significant global influenc es that can make reefs more vulnerable such as global warming....It is highly li kely that coral bleaching has been exacerbated by global warming." Jump up ^ Institute of Biology policy page eClimate Change f "there is scientific a greement that the rapid global warming that has occurred in recent years is most ly anthropogenic, ie due to human activity. h As a consequence of global warming, they warn that a grise in sea levels due to melting of ice caps is expected to oc cur. Rises in temperature will have complex and frequently localised effects on weather, but an overall increase in extreme weather conditions and changes in pr ecipitation patterns are probable, resulting in flooding and drought. The spread of tropical diseases is also expected. h Subsequently, the Institute of Biology a dvocates policies to reduce ggreenhouse gas emissions, as we feel that the conseq uences of climate change are likely to be severe." Jump up ^ SAF Forest Management and Climate Change, 2008 "Forests are shaped by climate....Changes in temperature and precipitation regimes therefore have the p otential to dramatically affect forests nationwide. There is growing evidence th at our climate is changing. The changes in temperature have been associated with increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and other GHGs in the atmosphere." Jump up ^ SAF Forest Offset Projects in a Carbon Trading System, 2008 "Forests p lay a significant role in offsetting CO2 emissions, the primary anthropogenic GH G." Jump up ^ Wildlife Society Global Climate Change and Wildlife "Scientists throug

hout the world have concluded that climate research conducted in the past two de cades definitively shows that rapid worldwide climate change occurred in the 20t h century, and will likely continue to occur for decades to come. Although clima tes have varied dramatically since the Earth was formed, few scientists question the role of humans in exacerbating recent climate change through the emission o f greenhouse gases. The critical issue is no longer gif h climate change is occurri ng, but rather how to address its effects on wildlife and wildlife habitats." Th e statement goes on to assert that gevidence is accumulating that wildlife and wi ldlife habitats have been and will continue to be significantly affected by ongo ing large-scale rapid climate change. h The statement concludes with a call for gre duction in anthropogenic (human-caused) sources of carbon dioxide and other gree nhouse gas emissions contributing to global climate change and the conservation of CO2- consuming photosynthesizers (i.e., plants). h Jump up ^ AAP Global Climate Change and Children's Health, 2007 "There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerat ing rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very like ly (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive ch anges in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irr eversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative envi ronmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. Anticipa ted direct health consequences of climate change include injury and death from e xtreme weather events and natural disasters, increases in climate-sensitive infe ctious diseases, increases in air pollution?related illness, and more heat-relat ed, potentially fatal, illness. Within all of these categories, children have in creased vulnerability compared with other groups." Jump up ^ ACPM Policy Statement Abrupt Climate Change and Public Health Implicat ions, 2006 "The American College of Preventive Medicine (ACPM) accept the positi on that global warming and climate change is occurring, that there is potential for abrupt climate change, and that human practices that increase greenhouse gas es exacerbate the problem, and that the public health consequences may be severe ." Jump up ^ American Medical Association Policy Statement, 2008 "Support the findi ngs of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which states that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that these chang es will negatively affect public health. Support educating the medical community on the potential adverse public health effects of global climate change, includ ing topics such as population displacement, flooding, infectious and vector-born e diseases, and healthy water supplies." Jump up ^ American Public Health Association Policy Statement e fAddressing the Urg ent Threat of Global Climate Change to Public Health and the Environment f f, 2007 " The long-term threat of global climate change to global health is extremely seri ous and the fourth IPCC report and other scientific literature demonstrate convi ncingly that anthropogenic GHG emissions are primarily responsible for this thre at c.US policy makers should immediately take necessary steps to reduce US emissio ns of GHGs, including carbon dioxide, to avert dangerous climate change." Jump up ^ AMA Climate Change and Human Health ? 2004, 2004 They recommend polici es "to mitigate the possible consequential health effects of climate change thro ugh improved energy efficiency, clean energy production and other emission reduc tion steps." Jump up ^ AMA Climate Change and Human Health ? 2004. Revised 2008., 20078 "The world fs climate ? our life-support system ? is being altered in ways that are lik ely to pose significant direct and indirect challenges to health. While eclimate change f can be due to natural forces or human activity, there is now substantial evidence to indicate that human activity ? and specifically increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions ? is a key factor in the pace and extent of global tempera ture increases. Health impacts of climate change include the direct impacts of e xtreme events such as storms, floods, heatwaves and fires and the indirect effec ts of longer-term changes, such as drought, changes to the food and water supply , resource conflicts and population shifts. Increases in average temperatures me

an that alterations in the geographic range and seasonality of certain infection s and diseases (including vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, R oss River virus and food-borne infections such as Salmonellosis) may be among th e first detectable impacts of climate change on human health. Human health is ul timately dependent on the health of the planet and its ecosystem. The AMA believ es that measures which mitigate climate change will also benefit public health. Reducing GHGs should therefore be seen as a public health priority." Jump up ^ World Federation of Public Health Associations resolution "Global Clim ate Change", 2001 "Noting the conclusions of the United Nations' Intergovernment al Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other climatologists that anthropogenic gr eenhouse gases, which contribute to global climate change, have substantially in creased in atmospheric concentration beyond natural processes and have increased by 28 percent since the industrial revolution c.Realizing that subsequent health effects from such perturbations in the climate system would likely include an in crease in: heat-related mortality and morbidity; vector-borne infectious disease s, c water-borne diseases c(and) malnutrition from threatened agriculture c.the World Federation of Public Health Associations crecommends precautionary primary prevent ive measures to avert climate change, including reduction of greenhouse gas emis sions and preservation of greenhouse gas sinks through appropriate energy and la nd use policies, in view of the scale of potential health impacts...." Jump up ^ WHO Protecting health from climate change, 2008, p. 2, retrieved 200904-18 Jump up ^ Statement supporting AGU statement on human-induced climate change, Am erican Astronomical Society, 2004 "In endorsing the "Human Impacts on Climate" s tatement [issued by the American Geophysical Union], the AAS recognizes the coll ective expertise of the AGU in scientific subfields central to assessing and und erstanding global change, and acknowledges the strength of agreement among our A GU colleagues that the global climate is changing and human activities are contr ibuting to that change." Jump up ^ ASA Statement on Climate Change, November 30, 2007 "The ASA endorses t he IPCC conclusions.... Over the course of four assessment reports, a small numb er of statisticians have served as authors or reviewers. Although this involveme nt is encouraging, it does not represent the full range of statistical expertise available. ASA recommends that more statisticians should become part of the IPC C process. Such participation would be mutually beneficial to the assessment of climate change and its impacts and also to the statistical community." Jump up ^ Policy Statement, Climate Change and Energy, February 2007 "Engineers Australia believes that Australia must act swiftly and proactively in line with global expectations to address climate change as an economic, social and environ mental risk... We believe that addressing the costs of atmospheric emissions wil l lead to increasing our competitive advantage by minimising risks and creating new economic opportunities. Engineers Australia believes the Australian Governme nt should ratify the Kyoto Protocol." Jump up ^ IAGLR Fact Sheet The Great Lakes at a Crossroads: Preparing for a Chan ging Climate, February 2009 "While the Earth fs climate has changed many times dur ing the planet fs history because of natural factors, including volcanic eruptions and changes in the Earth fs orbit, never before have we observed the present rapi d rise in temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2). Human activities resulting from the industrial revolution have changed the chemical composition of the atmospher e....Deforestation is now the second largest contributor to global warming, afte r the burning of fossil fuels. These human activities have significantly increas ed the concentration of ggreenhouse gases h in the atmosphere. As the Earth fs climat e warms, we are seeing many changes: stronger, more destructive hurricanes; heav ier rainfall; more disastrous flooding; more areas of the world experiencing sev ere drought; and more heat waves." Jump up ^ IPENZ Informatory Note, Climate Change and the greenhouse effect, Octo ber 2001 "Human activities have increased the concentration of these atmospheric greenhouse gases, and although the changes are relatively small, the equilibriu m maintained by the atmosphere is delicate, and so the effect of these changes i s significant. The world fs most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, a by-

product of the burning of fossil fuels. Since the time of the Industrial Revolut ion about 200 years ago, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere h as increased from about 280 parts per million to 370 parts per million, an incre ase of around 30%. On the basis of available data, climate scientists are now pr ojecting an average global temperature rise over this century of 2.0 to 4.5 C. This compared with 0.6 C over the previous century ? about a 500% increase... This coul d lead to changing, and for all emissions scenarios more unpredictable, weather patterns around the world, less frost days, more extreme events (droughts and st orm or flood disasters), and warmer sea temperatures and melting glaciers causin g sea levels to rise. ... Professional engineers commonly deal with risk, and fr equently have to make judgments based on incomplete data. The available evidence suggests very strongly that human activities have already begun to make signifi cant changes to the earth fs climate, and that the long-term risk of delaying acti on is greater than the cost of avoiding/minimising the risk." Jump up ^ AAPG Position Statement: Climate Change from dpa.aapg.org Jump up ^ "Climate :03:2007 EXPLORER". Aapg.org. Retrieved 2012-07-30. Jump up ^ Sunsetting the Global Climate Change Committee, The Professional Geolo gist, March/April 2010, p. 28 Jump up ^ "AGI Statement on Global Climate Change". Agiweb.org. Retrieved 2012-0 7-30. Jump up ^ http://www.aipg.org/About/WhatIsAIPG.html[dead link] Jump up ^ AIPG Climate Change Letters sent to U.S. Government Officials Jump up ^ "AIPG Climate Change and Domestic Energy Statement", The Professional Geologist, January/February 2010, p. 42 Jump up ^ http://www.aipg.org/Publications/TPGPublic.html[dead link] Jump up ^ "Climate Change and Society Governance", The Professional Geologist, M arch/April 2010, p. 33 Jump up ^ billobrien.coml. "Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences (CFES)". Geosc ience.ca. Retrieved 2012-07-30. Jump up ^ Anderegg, William R L; James W. Prall, Jacob Harold, and Stephen H. Sc hneider (2010). "Expert credibility in climate change". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U .S.A. 107 (27): 12107?9. Bibcode:2010PNAS..10712107A. doi:10.1073/pnas.100318710 7. PMC 2901439. PMID 20566872. Retrieved 22 August 2011. Jump up ^ Doran consensus article 2009 Jump up ^ John Cook, Dana Nuccitelli, Sarah A Green, Mark Richardson, Barbel Win kler, Rob Painting, Robert Way, Peter Jacobs. Andrew Skuce (15 May 2013). "Exper t credibility in climate change". Environ. Res. Lett. 8 (2): 024024. Bibcode:201 3ERL.....8b4024C. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024. Jump up ^ Naomi Oreskes (December 3, 2004 (Erratum January 21, 2005)). "Beyond t he Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change" (PDF). Science 306 ( 5702): 1686. doi:10.1126/science.1103618. PMID 15576594. (see also for an exchan ge of letters to Science) Jump up ^ Lavelle, Marianne (2008-04-23). "Survey Tracks Scientists' Growing Cli mate Concern". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved 2010-01-20. Jump up ^ Lichter, S. Robert (2008-04-24). "Climate Scientists Agree on Warming, Disagree on Dangers, and Don't Trust the Media's Coverage of Climate Change". S tatistical Assessment Service, George Mason University. Retrieved 2010-01-20. Jump up ^ ""Structure of Scientific Opinion on Climate Change" at Journalist's R esource.org". Jump up ^ Stephen J. Farnsworth, S. Robert Lichter (October 27, 2011). "The Stru cture of Scientific Opinion on Climate Change". International Journal of Public Opinion Research. Retrieved December 2, 2011. Jump up ^ Bray, Dennis; von Storch, Hans (2009). "A Survey of the Perspectives o f Climate Scientists Concerning Climate Science and Climate Change". Jump up ^ Bray, D.; von Storch H. (2009). "Prediction' or 'Projection; The nomen clature of climate science". Science Communication 30 (4): 534?543. doi:10.1177/ 1075547009333698. Jump up ^ Doran, Peter T.; Maggie Kendall Zimmerman (January 20, 2009). "Examini ng the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change". EOS 90 (3): 22?23. Bibcode:2009E OSTr..90...22D. doi:10.1029/2009EO030002.

Jump up ^ Anderegg, William R L; James W. Prall, Jacob Harold, and Stephen H. Sc hneider (2010). "Expert credibility in climate change". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U .S.A. 107 (27): 12107?9. Bibcode:2010PNAS..10712107A. doi:10.1073/pnas.100318710 7. PMC 2901439. PMID 20566872. Jump up ^ Cook, J.; Nuccitelli, D.; Green, S.A.; Richardson, M.; Winkler, B.; Pa inting, R.; Way, R.; Jacobs, P.; Skuc, A. (2013). "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature". Environ. Res. Lett. 8 (2): 024024. Bibcode:2013ERL.....8b4024C. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024. Jump up ^ Plait, P. (11 December 2012). "Why Climate Change Denial Is Just Hot A ir". Slate. Retrieved 14 February 2014. Jump up ^ Plait, P. (14 January 2014). "The Very, Very Thin Wedge of Denial". Sl ate. Retrieved 14 February 2014. Jump up ^ Oreskes, Naomi (2007). "The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: Ho w Do We Know We fre Not Wrong?". In DiMento, Joseph F. C.; Doughman, Pamela M. Cli mate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. MIT Pres s. pp. 65?66. ISBN 978-0-262-54193-0. Jump up ^ US NRC (2008). Understanding and Responding to Climate Change. A broch ure prepared by the US National Research Council (US NRC). Washington DC, USA: U S National Academy of Sciences. Jump up ^ Joint Science Academies' Statement Jump up ^ "Climate Change Research: Issues for the Atmospheric and Related Scien ces Adopted by the AMS Council 9 February 2003". Ametsoc.org. 2003-02-09. Retrie ved 2012-07-30. Jump up ^ "Australian Coral Reef Society". Australian Coral Reef Society. Retrie ved 2012-07-30. Jump up ^ Australian Coral Reef Society official letter, June 16, 2006 IPCC TAR SYR (2001), Watson, R. T.; and the Core Writing Team, ed., Climate Chan ge 2001: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambri dge University Press, ISBN 0-521-80770-0 (pb: 0-521-01507-3). IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007), Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linde n, P.J.; and Hanson, C.E., ed., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vul nerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7 (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4). IPCC AR4 WG3 (2007), Metz, B.; Davidson, O.R.; Bosch, P.R.; Dave, R.; and Meyer, L.A., ed., Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of W orking Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4 (pb: 978-0 -521-70598-1). IPCC AR4 SYR (2007), Core Writing Team; Pachauri, R.K; and Reisinger, A., ed., C limate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (SYR), Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, ISBN 92-9169-122-4. US NRC (2001), Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. A repo rt by the Committee on the Science of Climate Change, US National Research Counc il (NRC), Washington, D.C., USA: National Academy Press, ISBN 0-309-07574-2, arc hived from the original on 5 June 2011 External links[edit] Robin Lloyd (23 February 2011). "Why Are Americans So Ill-Informed about Climate Change?". Scientific American. Retrieved 31 March 2011. [hide] v t e Global warming and climate change [show] Temperatures [show] Causes [show] History

[show] Opinion and climate change [show] Politics [show] Potential effects and issues [show] Mitigation [show] Proposed adaptations Glossary of climate change Index of climate change articles Category:Climate cha nge Category:Global warming Portal:Global warming Categories: Climate change assessment and attributionClimate change scienceConse nsus Navigation menu Create accountLog inArticleTalkReadEditView history Main page Contents Featured content Current events Random article Donate to Wikipedia Wikimedia Shop Interaction Help About Wikipedia Community portal Recent changes Contact page Tools Print/export Languages Deutsch Espanol Francais Magyar Polski Portugues Edit links This page was last modified on 15 February 2014 at 01:15. Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License; add itional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and P rivacy Policy. WikipediaR is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation, Inc., a non-pr ofit organization. Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersMobile viewWi kimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki NASA header header image Key Indicators Evidence Causes Effects Consensus NASA's Role Earth System Science Missions History

Key Websites CLIMATE RESOURCES INTERACTIVES Eyes on the Earth 3D Climate Time Machine Sea Level Viewer Global Ice Viewer Quizzes The Water Cycle Orbiting Outpost Head in the Clouds IMAGES AND VIDEO Images of Change Beautiful Earth Climate Reel Ask a Climate Scientist CLIMATE KIDS ENERGY INNOVATIONS SUBSCRIBE TO NEWSLETTER FOR EDUCATORS NASA Innovations in Climate Education Teacher Tips PBS/NASA Modules Resource Collections Earth Science Week 2013 FOR METEOROLOGISTS GO Webby award honoree 2013 CAUSES A blanket around the Earth A layer of greenhouse gases ? primarily water vapor, and including much smaller amounts of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide ? act as a thermal blanket for the Earth, absorbing heat and warming the surface to a life-supporting average of 59 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius). submit to reddit 120 Most climate scientists agree the main cause of the current global warming trend is human expansion of the "greenhouse effect"1 -- warming that results when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space. Certain gases in the atmosphere block heat from escaping. Long-lived gases, rema ining semi-permanently in the atmosphere, which do not respond physically or che mically to changes in temperature are described as "forcing" climate change wher eas gases, such as water, which respond physically or chemically to changes in t emperature are seen as "feedbacks." Gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect include: Water vapor. The most abundant greenhouse gas, but importantly, it acts as a fee dback to the climate. Water vapor increases as the Earth's atmosphere warms, but so does the possibility of clouds and precipitation, making these some of the m ost important feedback mechanisms to the greenhouse effect. Carbon dioxide (CO2). A minor but very important component of the atmosphere, ca rbon dioxide is released through natural processes such as respiration and volca no eruptions and through human activities such as deforestation, land use change s, and burning fossil fuels. Humans have increased atmospheric CO2 concentration by a third since the Industrial Revolution began. This is the most important lo ng-lived "forcing" of climate change. Methane. A hydrocarbon gas produced both through natural sources and human activ ities, including the decomposition of wastes in landfills, agriculture, and espe

cially rice cultivation, as well as ruminant digestion and manure management ass ociated with domestic livestock. On a molecule-for-molecule basis, methane is a far more active greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but also one which is much l ess abundant in the atmosphere. Nitrous oxide. A powerful greenhouse gas produced by soil cultivation practices, especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers, fossil fuel combustio n, nitric acid production, and biomass burning. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Synthetic compounds of entirely of industrial origin used in a number of applications, but now largely regulated in production and r elease to the atmosphere by international agreement for their ability to contrib ute to destruction of the ozone layer. They are also greenhouse gases. <b>Not enough greenhouse effect:</b> The planet Mars has a very thin atm osphere, nearly all carbon dioxide. Because of the low atmospheric pressure, a nd with little to no methane or water vapor to reinforce the weak greenhouse eff ect, Mars has a largely frozen surface that shows no evidence of life.Not enough greenhouse effect: The planet Mars has a very thin atmosphere, nearly all carbo n dioxide. Because of the low atmospheric pressure, and with little to no methan e or water vapor to reinforce the weak greenhouse effect, Mars has a largely fro zen surface that shows no evidence of life. <b>Too much greenhouse effect:</b> The atmosphere of Venus, like Mars, is nearly all carbon dioxide. But Venus has about 300 times as much carbon dioxide in it s atmosphere as Earth and Mars do, producing a runaway greenhouse effect and a s urface temperature hot enough to melt lead.Too much greenhouse effect: The atmos phere of Venus, like Mars, is nearly all carbon dioxide. But Venus has about 300 times as much carbon dioxide in its atmosphere as Earth and Mars do, producing a runaway greenhouse effect and a surface temperature hot enough to melt lead. On Earth, human activities are changing the natural greenhouse. Over the last ce ntury the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the concentrat ion of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). This happens because the coal or oil bu rning process combines carbon with oxygen in the air to make CO2. To a lesser ex tent, the clearing of land for agriculture, industry, and other human activities have increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. The consequences of changing the natural atmospheric greenhouse are difficult to predict, but certain effects seem likely: On average, Earth will become warmer. Some regions may welcome warmer temperatur es, but others may not. Warmer conditions will probably lead to more evaporation and precipitation overa ll, but individual regions will vary, some becoming wetter and others dryer. A stronger greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and partially melt glaciers an d other ice, increasing sea level. Ocean water also will expand if it warms, con tributing further to sea level rise. Meanwhile, some crops and other plants may respond favorably to increased atmosp heric CO2, growing more vigorously and using water more efficiently. At the same time, higher temperatures and shifting climate patterns may change the areas wh ere crops grow best and affect the makeup of natural plant communities. The role of human activity In its recently released Fourth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel o n Climate Change, a group of 1,300 independent scientific experts from countries all over the world under the auspices of the United Nations, concluded there's a more than 90 percent probability that human activities over the past 250 years have warmed our planet. The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 379 parts per mi llion in the last 150 years. The panel also concluded there's a better than 90 p ercent probability that human-produced greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have caused much of the observed increase in Earth's t

emperatures over the past 50 years. They said the rate of increase in global warming due to these gases is very like ly to be unprecedented within the past 10,000 years or more. The panel's full Su mmary for Policymakers report is online at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-rep ort/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf. Solar irradiance It's reasonable to assume that changes in the sun's energy output would cause th e climate to change, since the sun is the fundamental source of energy that driv es our climate system. Indeed, studies show that solar variability has played a role in past climate ch anges. For example, a decrease in solar activity is thought to have triggered th e Little Ice Age between approximately 1650 and 1850, when Greenland was largely cut off by ice from 1410 to the 1720s and glaciers advanced in the Alps. But several lines of evidence show that current global warming cannot be explain ed by changes in energy from the sun: Since 1750, the average amount of energy coming from the Sun either remained con stant or increased slightly. If the warming were caused by a more active sun, then scientists would expect to see warmer temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere. Instead, they have obs erved a cooling in the upper atmosphere, and a warming at the surface and in the lower parts of the atmosphere. That's because greenhouse gasses are trapping he at in the lower atmosphere. Climate models that include solar irradiance changes can ft reproduce the observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a rise in gre enhouse gases. References 1IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 United States Global Change Research Program, "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States," Cambridge University Press, 2009 Naomi Oreskes, "The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change," Science 3 December 2004: Vol. 306 no. 5702 p. 1686 DOI: 10.1126/science.1103618. 2Mike Lockwood, gSolar Change and Climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum, h Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 2 December 2009, doi 10.1098/rspa.2009.0519; Judith Lean, gCycles and trends in solar irradiance and climate, h Wiley Interdisci plinary Reviews: Climate Change, vol. 1, January/February 2010, 111-122. A layer of greenhouse gases ? primarily water vapor, and including much smaller amounts of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide ? act as a thermal blanket for the Earth, absorbing heat and warming the surface to a life-supporting avera ge of 59 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius). We live in a greenhouse Life on Earth depends on energy coming from the sun. About half the light reachi ng Earth's atmosphere passes through the air and clouds to the surface, where it is absorbed and then radiated upward in the form of infrared heat. About 90 per cent of this heat is then absorbed by the greenhouse gases and radiated back tow ard the surface, which is warmed to a life-supporting average of 59 degrees Fahr enheit (15 degrees Celsius).

Is the Sun to Blame? How do we know that changes in the sun aren ft to blame for current global warming trends? Since 1978, a series of satellite instruments have measured the energy output of the sun directly. The satellite data show a very slight drop in solar irradianc e (which is a measure of the amount of energy the sun gives off) over this time period. So the sun doesn't appear to be responsible for the warming trend observ ed over the past 30 years. Longer-term estimates of solar irradiance have been made using sunspot records a nd other so-called gproxy indicators, h such as the amount of carbon in tree rings. The most recent analyses of these proxies indicate that solar irradiance change s cannot plausibly account for more than 10 percent of the 20th century fs warming .2 usa.gov This website is produced by the Earth Science Communications Team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology About Us ? Earth Observatory ? CLIMATE CHANGE FAQ ? Feedback ? Site Map ? Privacy ? Awards and Credits Site Editor: Amber Jenkins Site Manager: Randal Jackson Communications Specialist: Laura F. Tenenbaum Climate change opinion by country From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia For more about opinion in general, see Public opinion on climate change. Ambox current red.svg This article's factual accuracy may be compromised due to out-of-date informatio n. Please update this article to reflect recent events or newly available inform ation. (July 2012) United States, Europe, and Australia are the darkest while Africa, the Middle Ea st, and Oceania are the lightest. Proportion who report knowing "something" or a "great deal" about global warming . Darker areas indicate a greater proportion of individuals aware, yellow indica tes no data. Latin America and Japan are the darkest while the remainder are either much ligh ter or mixed. Proportion responding yes when asked, "Temperature rise is part of global warmin g or climate change. Do you think rising temperatures are [...] a result of huma n activities?" The Americas, Europe, Australia, Kenya and Japan are the darkest. The remainder much lighter. Proportion responding that global warming is a serious personal threat. Climate change opinion is the aggregate of public opinion held by the adult popu lation. Cost constraints often restrict surveys to sample only one or two countr ies from each continent or focus on only one region. Because of differences amon g questions, wording, and methods?it is difficult to reliably compare results or to generalize them to opinions held world-wide. In 2007?2008, the Gallup Poll surveyed individuals from 128 countries in the fir st comprehensive study of global opinions. The Gallup Organization aggregated op inion from the adult population fifteen years of age and older, either through t he telephone or personal interviews, and in both rural and urban areas except in areas where the safety of interviewer was threatened and in scarcely populated islands. Personal interviews were stratified by population size or geography and cluster sampling was achieved through one or more stages. Although error bounds vary, they are all below }6% with 95% confidence. Weighting countries to a 2008 World Bank population estimate, sixty-one percent of individuals world-wide are aware of global warming, developed countries more aware than developing, with Africa the least aware. Latin America and developed

countries in Asia lead the belief that climate change is a result of human activ ities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite. Awareness often translates to conc ern, although of those aware, individuals Europe and develop countries in Asia p erceive global warming as a greater threat than others. Awareness Knowing "something" or a "great deal" about global warming when asked "How much do you know about global warming or climate change?" Caused by human activity Responding yes when asked, "Temperature rise is part of global warming or climat e change. Do you think rising temperatures are [...] a result of human activitie s?" Perceived as threat Responding that global warming is a serious personal threat. Country Awareness Caused by human activity Perceived as threat Afghanistan 25 29 18 Algeria 56 54 46 Angola 43 70 38 Argentina 76 81 71 Armenia 78 28 65 Australia 97 54 75 Austria 95 51 54 Azerbaijan 58 42 43 Bangladesh 33 62 32 Belarus 80 48 30 Belgium 89 50 68 Belize 53 59 45 Benin 21 46 15 Bolivia 55 73 51 Botswana 38 26 30 Brazil 79 80 76 Burkina Faso 36 52 34 Burundi 22 38 20 Cambodia 58 34 51 Cameroon 49 52 32 Canada 95 61 74 Central African Republic 56 58 37 Chad 45 31 38 Chile 73 78 69 China 62 58 21 Colombia 68 77 65 Costa Rica 75 87 72 Czech Republic 87 52 39 Democratic Republic of the Congo 53 52 41 Denmark 90 49 40 Djibouti 43 62 35 Dominican Republic 50 52 46 Ecuador 70 81 69 Egypt 25 60 21 El Salvador 55 75 51 Estonia 88 46 32 Ethiopia 80 56 73 Finland 98 53 39 France 93 63 75 Georgia 62 37 47 Germany 96 59 60 Ghana 26 51 19 Greece 87 84 82

Guatemala 57 Guinea 55 40 Guyana 67 36 Haiti 46 38 Honduras 62 Hong Kong 93 Hungary 93 Iceland 95 India 35 53 Indonesia 39 Iran 55 62 Iraq 55 38 Ireland 94 Israel 86 63 Italy 84 65 Japan 99 91 Jordan 62 53 Kazakhstan 60 Kenya 56 59 Kyrgyzstan 52 Laos 80 65 Latvia 91 54 Lebanon 64 Liberia 15 Lithuania 91 Luxembourg 95 Madagascar 49 Malaysia 71 Mali 53 72 Malta 75 68 Mauritania 44 Mexico 67 71 Moldova 83 Mongolia 75 Morocco 30 Mozambique 54 Namibia 46 Nepal 37 Netherlands 96 Nicaragua 53 Niger 24 35 Nigeria 28 Norway 97 47 Pakistan 34 Palestine 67 Panama 65 73 Paraguay 58 Peru 62 72 Philippines 47 Poland 84 58 Portugal 90 Qatar 64 39 Republic of the Congo Romania 81 Russia 85 52 Rwanda 30 44 Saudi Arabia 49 Senegal 36 Sierra Leone 36 Singapore 84

72 43 56 35 58 78 65 38 29 55 43 28 66 62 76 80 51 54 49 42 49 37 64 41 50 60 67 63 48 64 48 63 48 54 68 53 49 48 44 66 21 27 43 25 50 61 79 58 72 54 79 43 41 60 39 22 39 27 31 44

51

57 54 75 33 33 60

35 39 54 13 47 75 46 50 35 73 30 29 48 35 32 57 49 18 24 55 54 42 85 58 66 40 33 24 59 31

South Africa 31 South Korea 93 Spain 85 71 Sri Lanka 73 Sudan 47 69 Sweden 96 64 Syria 56 54 Taiwan 91 70 Tajikistan 43 Tanzania 53 Thailand 88 Togo 29 43 Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia 60 Turkey 74 70 Uganda 35 66 Ukraine 79 United Kingdom 97 United States 97 Uruguay 73 Uzbekistan 53 Venezuela 63 Vietnam 73 Zambia 27 43 Zimbabwe 52 References[edit]

29 92 69 63 42 56 41 70 81 15 55 23 72 50 66 30 51 48 49 75 18 65 49 18 41

21 80 65

19 48 61 76 46 52 69 63 68 38 62 53 36 71

Portal icon Global warming portal Pelham, Brett (22 Apr 2009). "Awareness, Opinions About Global Warming Vary Worl dwide". Gallup. Retrieved 22 Dec 2009. Pugliese, Anita; Ray, Julie (22 Sep 2009). "A Heated Debate: Global Attitudes To ward Climate Change" (Subscription required). Harvard International Review. Retr ieved 19 Jan 2010. Pugliese, Anita; Ray, Julie (7 Dec 2009). "Top-Emitting Countries Differ on Clim ate Change Threat". Gallup. Retrieved 22 Dec 2009. Pugliese, Anita; Ray, Julie (11 Dec 2009). "Awareness of Climate Change and Thre at Vary by Region". Gallup. Retrieved 22 Dec 2009. World Development Indicators database (15 Sep 2009). "Population 2008". World Ba nk. Retrieved 18 Jan 2010. Categories: Climate change and societyPublic opinionClimate change by country Navigation menu Create accountLog inArticleTalkReadEditView history Main page Contents Featured content Current events Random article Donate to Wikipedia Wikimedia Shop Interaction Help About Wikipedia Community portal Recent changes Contact page Tools Print/export This page was last modified on 19 May 2013 at 23:27. Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License; add

itional terms may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and P rivacy Policy. WikipediaR is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation, Inc., a non-pr ofit organization. Privacy policyAbout WikipediaDisclaimersContact WikipediaDevelopersMobile viewWi kimedia Foundation Powered by MediaWiki Skip to left navigation | Skip to content Welcome to the United Nations. It's your world. UN Search United Nations Global Issues UN Home Main Page Africa Ageing Agriculture AIDS Atomic Energy Children Climate Change Decolonization Demining Democracy Development Disarmament Environment Family Food Governance Health Human Rights Human Settlements Humanitarian Assistance International Law Oceans / Law of the Sea Peace and Security Persons with Disabilities Population Refugees Terrorism Volunteerism Water Women Climate Change Overview Related Links In the 19th century, an awareness began to dawn that accumulated carbon dioxide in the Earth fs atmosphere could create a ggreenhouse effect h and increase the tempe rature of the planet. A perceptible process in that direction had already begun ? a side-effect of the industrial age and its production of carbon dioxide and other such "greenhouse gases." By the middle of the 20th century, it was becoming clear that human action had s ignificantly increased the production of these gases, and the process of gglobal warming h was accelerating. Today, nearly all scientists agree that we must stop and reverse this process now ? or face a devastating cascade of natural disaster s that will change life on earth as we know it. UN Climate Change Conference in Doha, 2012, agrees to a new commitment period fo r the Kyoto protocol

In December 2012, a UN climate conference in Doha, agreed to a new commitment pe riod for the Kyoto protocol, a treaty that limits the greenhouse gas output of s ome developed countries, and affirmed a previous decision to adopt a new global climate pact by 2015. Much of the evidence already seems apparent to the layman as well. Most of the hottest years on record have occurred during the past two decades. In Europe, t he heat wave in the summer of 2003 resulted in over 30,000 deaths. In India, te mperatures reached 48.1 degrees Centigrade ? nearly 119 degrees Fahrenheit. Two years later, the ferocity of Hurricane Katrina in the United States was attr ibuted in large part to the elevated water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. A nd in one of many terrain changing developments, 160 square miles of territory b roke away from the Antarctic coast in 2008 ? its bindings to Antarctica having l iterally melted away. The UN family is in the forefront of the effort to save our planet. In 1992, it s gEarth Summit h produced the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Chang e (UNFCCC) as a first step in tackling the problem. In 1998, the World Meteorol ogical Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) se t up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide an objectiv e source of scientific information. And the Convention fs 1997 Kyoto Protocol, wh ich set emission reduction targets for industrialized countries, has already hel ped stabilize and in some cases reduce emissions in several countries. "We must limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees. We are far from there, and even that is enough to cause dire consequences. If we continue along the current path, we are close to a 6 degree increase". "Too many leaders seem content to keep climate change at arm fs length, and in its policy silo. Too few grasp the need to bring the threat to the centre of global security, economic and financial management. It is time to move beyond spending enormous sums addressing the damage, and to make the investments that will repa y themselves many times over". UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon Remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations (February 2013) The UN has consistently taken the lead in taking on climate change. In 2007, th e Nobel Peace Prize was awarded jointly to former United States Vice-President A l Gore and the IPCC "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowl edge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change". The Kyoto Protocol set standards for certain industrialized countries. Those ta rgets expired in 2012. In the meanwhile, greenhouse gas emissions from both dev eloped and developing countries have been increasing rapidly. The Copenhagen Accord was agreed to by Heads of State, Heads of Government, Mini sters and other heads of delegation at the UN Climate Change Conference in Copen hagen in December 2009. In December 2010, climate change talks in Cancun concluded with a package of dec isions to help countries advance towards a low-emissions future. Dubbed the gCanc un Agreements, h the decisions include formalizing mitigation pledges and ensuring increased accountability for them, as well as taking concrete action to protect the world's forests. KEY DOCUMENTS United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Kyoto Protocol Bali Road Map Cancun Agreements In 2011 the world population reached 7 billion. It is expected to grow to 9 bill ion by 2043, placing high demands on the Earth fs resources. There is alarming evidence that important tipping points, leading to irreversibl e changes in major ecosystems and the planetary climate system, may already have been reached or passed. Ecosystems as diverse as the Amazon rainforest and the Arctic tundra, may be approaching thresholds of dramatic change through warming and drying. Mountain glaciers are in alarming retreat and the downstream effects of reduced water supply in the driest months will have repercussions that trans cend generations. In 2011 the UN Climate Change Conference in Durban, South Africa produced the Du rban Platform . In Durban, governments decided to adopt a universal legal agreem ent on climate change as soon as possible, but not later than 2015. In December 2012, after two weeks of negotiations at Doha conference, nations mo ved forward on climate change and extended the Kyoto Protocol. The renewal will keep existing climate targets until a new international agreement comes into eff ect in 2020, pending a new pact to be decided on by 2015.

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Twitter Main menu: Home About Issues World News Support Contact You are here:HomeIssuesClimate Change and Global Warming Climate Change and Global Warming Author And Page Information by Anup ShahThis Page Last Updated Sunday, January 19, 2014 This page: http://www.globalissues.org/issue/178/climate-change-and-global-warmi ng. To print all information e.g. expanded side notes, shows alternative links, use the print version: http://www.globalissues.org/print/issue/178 Global warming and climate change is looked at in this section of the global iss ues web site. Introduced are some of the effects of climate change. In addition, this section attempts to provide insights into what governments, companies, int ernational institutions, and other organizations are attempting to do about this issue, as well as the challenges they face. Some of the major conferences in re cent years are also discussed. 30 articles on gClimate Change and Global Warming h and 1 related issue:

Climate Change And Global Warming Introduction Last updated Monday, November 11, 2013. The climate is changing. The earth is warming up, and there is now overwhelming scientific consensus that it is happening, and human-induced. With global warmin g on the increase and species and their habitats on the decrease, chances for ec osystems to adapt naturally are diminishing. Many are agreed that climate change may be one of the greatest threats facing th e planet. Recent years show increasing temperatures in various regions, and/or i ncreasing extremities in weather patterns. This section looks at what causes climate change, what the impacts are and where scientific consensus currently is. Read gClimate Change and Global Warming Introduction h to learn more.

Global Dimming Posted Saturday, January 15, 2005. Research has shown that air pollutants from fossil fuel use make clouds reflect more of the sun fs rays back into space. This leads to an effect known as global d imming whereby less heat and energy reaches the earth. At first, it sounds like an ironic savior to climate change problems. However, it is believed that global dimming caused the droughts in Ethiopia in the 1970s and 80s where millions die d, because the northern hemisphere oceans were not warm enough to allow rain for mation. Global dimming is also hiding the true power of global warming. By clean ing up global dimming-causing pollutants without tackling greenhouse gas emissio ns, rapid warming has been observed, and various human health and ecological dis asters have resulted, as witnessed during the European heat wave in 2003, which saw thousands of people die. Read gGlobal Dimming h to learn more. UN Framework Convention On Climate Change Last updated Saturday, December 25, 2004.

The world mostly agrees that something needs to be done about global warming and climate change. The first stumbling block, however, has been trying to get an a greement on a framework. In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Wo rld Meterological Organization (WMO) to assess the scientific knowledge on globa l warming. The IPCC concluded in 1990 that there was broad international consens us that climate change was human-induced. That report led way to an internationa l convention for climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Clim ate Change (UNFCCC), signed by over 150 countries at the Rio Earth Summit in 199 2. This section looks at this Convention and some of the main principles in it. Read gUN Framework Convention on Climate Change h to learn more.

Reactions To Climate Change Negotiations And Action Last updated Monday, March 05, 2012. The United States plus a few other countries, and many large corporations, have opposed climate change treaties seemingly afraid of profit impacts if they have to make substantial changes to how they do business. However, as more climate change science has emerged over the years, many busines ses are accepting this and even asking their governments for more action so that there is quick clarification on the new rules of the game so they can get on wi th their businesses. This section explores some of those fears to see if they are justified or not. Read gReactions to Climate Change Negotiations and Action h to learn more. Global Warming, Spin And Media Last updated Saturday, October 19, 2013. For many years, large, influential businesses and governments have been against the idea of global warming. Many have poured a lot of resources into discreditin g what has generally been accepted for a long time as real. Now, the mainstream is generally worried about climate change impacts and the di scourse seems to have shifted accordingly. Some businesses that once engaged in disinformation campaigns have even changed their opinions, some even requesting governments for regulation and direction on this issue. However, a few influential companies and organizations are still attempting to u ndermine climate change action and concerns. Will all this mean a different type of spin and propaganda with attempts at green washing and misleading informatio n becoming the norm, or will there now be major shift in attitudes to see concre te solutions being proposed and implemented? Read gGlobal Warming, Spin and Media h to learn more.

Climate Justice And Equity Last updated Sunday, January 08, 2012. For a number of years, there have been concerns that climate change negotiations will essentially ignore a key principle of climate change negotiation framework s: the common but differentiated responsibilities. Realizing that greenhouse emissions remain in the atmosphere for a very long tim e, this principle recognizes that historically: Industrialized nations have emitted far more greenhouse gas emissions (even if s ome developing nations are only now increasing theirs); Rich countries therefore face the biggest responsibility and burden for action t o address climate change; and

Rich countries therefore must support developing nations adapt?through financing and technology transfer, for example. This notion of climate justice is typically ignored by many rich nations and the ir mainstream media, making it easy to blame China, India and other developing c ountries for failures in climate change mitigation negotiations. Development expert, Martin Khor, calculated that taking historical emissions int o account, the rich countries owe a carbon debt because they have already used m ore than their fair quota of emissions. Yet, by 2050 when certain emission reductions are needed by, their reduced emiss ions will still add up to be go over their fair share: It is likely that rich countries will emit 200 gigtons of carbon more than what it would under a fairer allocation. (That is, they will likely emit a total of 3 25 gigatons out of a maximum of 600gt by 2050) However, rather than continue down the path of unequal development, industrializ ed nations can help pay off their carbon debt by truly helping emerging countrie s develop along a cleaner path, such as through the promised-but-barely-delivere d technology transfer, finance, and capacity building. So far however, rich nations have done very little within the Kyoto protocol to reduce emissions by any meaningful amount, while they are all for negotiating a follow on treaty that brings more pressure to developing countries to agree to e missions targets. In effect, the more there will be delay the more the poor nations will have to s ave the Earth with their sacrifices (and if it works, as history shows, the rich and powerful will find a way to rewrite history to claim they were the ones tha t saved the planet). These issues are explored in more depth here. Read gClimate Justice and Equity h to learn more.

Climate Change Flexibility Mechanisms Last updated Monday, April 02, 2012. Flexibility mechanisms were defined in the Kyoto Protocol as different ways to a chieve emissions reduction as part of the effort to address climate change issue s. These fall into the following categories: Emissions Trading, Joint Implementa tion and Clean Development Mechanism. However, these have been highly controversial as they were mainly included on st rong US insistence and to keep the US in the treaty (even though the US eventual ly pulled out). Some of the mechanisms face criticism for not actually leading t o a reduction in emissions, for example. Cartoon Depicts politics in global warming negotiations where an emissions-produ cing Uncle Sam (representing the rich nations, including the US) is twisting the arms of a poor person (representing poor nations) to sell emissions quotas at d irt cheap prices Image c: Centre for Science and Environment Read gClimate Change Flexibility Mechanisms h to learn more. Carbon Sinks, Forests And Climate Change Last updated Tuesday, October 29, 2002. A mechanism suggested for tackling climate change and warming has been the idea of using Carbon Sinks to soak up carbon dioxide. To aid in this, reforestation, or planting of new forests, have been suggested. This is a popular strategy for the logging industry and nations with large forests interests. While there may b

e some potential in this solution, it cannot be effective on its own. This is be cause it legitimizes continued destruction of old-growth and pristine forests wh ich are rich ecosystems and have an established biodiversity base (albeit shrink ing now) that naturally maintain the environment (at no cost!). Creating new for est areas would require the creation of entire ecosystems. It is also criticized for being a quick fix that does not tackle the root causes effectively and does not lead to, or promote actual emissions reduction. Read gCarbon Sinks, Forests and Climate Change h to learn more.

Climate Change Affects Biodiversity Last updated Sunday, January 19, 2014. Rapid global warming can affect an ecosystems chances to adapt naturally. The Arctic is very sensitive to climate change and already seeing lots of change s. Ocean biodiversity is already being affected as are other parts of the ecosys tem. Read gClimate Change Affects Biodiversity h to learn more. Global Warming And Population Last updated Sunday, December 05, 2010. It seems there has been a recent interest in associating climate change/global w arming with gover population h and that countries such as China and India have to d o more to help contain global warming. Yet rich countries have a lot to do themselves. There were agreed reasons why de veloping countries were exempt from initial greenhouse gas emission targets: it was the emissions from rich countries that accumulated in the atmosphere for so long to trigger climate change. Read gGlobal Warming and Population h to learn more. Coral Reefs Last updated Sunday, March 03, 2013. One type of ecosystem that perhaps is neglected more than any other is perhaps a lso the richest in biodiversity?the coral reefs. Coral reefs are useful to the environment and to people in a number of ways. How ever, all around the world, much of the world fs marine biodiversity face threats from human and activities as well as natural. It is feared that very soon, many reefs could die off. Read gCoral Reefs h to learn more. Energy Security Last updated Sunday, May 15, 2011. Energy security is a growing concern for rich and emerging nations alike. The pa st drive for fossil fuel energy has led to wars, overthrow of democratically ele cted leaders, and puppet governments and dictatorships. Leading nations admit we are addicted to oil, but investment into alternatives h as been lacking, or little in comparison to fossil fuel investments. As the global financial crisis takes hold and awareness of climate change increa ses, more nations and companies are trying to invest in alternatives. But will t he geopolitics remain the same? Read gEnergy Security h to learn more.

Dominance And Change In The Arctic Last updated Sunday, June 06, 2010. The Arctic region has long been considered international territory. Five countri es?Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), Norway, Russia, and the United States?share a border with the frozen Arctic Ocean. Some of these nations have claimed parts of the region to be their territory. Underlying the interests in the area are potentially vast oil, gas and other res ources, as well as the opening up of lucrative passages for trade and economic a ctivity as climate change reduces the amount of ice in the region. As a result, these nations have been vying for dominance in the Arctic. Climate change provides an additional threat ? not just to the local wildlife an d indigenous populations that are already seeing their surroundings change rapid ly, but to the rest of the planet, too. While retreating sea ice may open up shi pping routes, the regions ability to reflect sunlight back into space would dimi nish, further increasing climate change effects. Read gDominance and Change in the Arctic h to learn more.

COP19?Warsaw Climate Conference Posted Monday, December 02, 2013. An overview of the Climate Change Conference (also known as COP 19), held in War saw, Poland in November 2013. Predictably and sadly, the same issues have resurfaced: West stalling on doing a nything, lack of funding, disagreement on priorities, etc. This page is an overview of the Warsaw Climate conference. Read gCOP19?Warsaw Climate Conference h to learn more. COP18?Doha Climate Conference Posted Sunday, December 02, 2012. An overview of the Climate Change Conference (also known as COP 18), held in Doh a, Qatar in December 2012. Predictably and sadly, the same issues have resurfaced: lack of media coverage, West stalling on doing anything, lack of funding, disagreement on how to address it, etc. This page is an overview of the Doha Climate conference. Read gCOP18?Doha Climate Conference h to learn more.

COP17?Durban Climate Conference Posted Wednesday, January 04, 2012. An overview of the Climate Change Conference (also known as COP 17), held in Dur ban, South Africa in December 2011. Predictably and sadly, the same issues have resurfaced: lack of media coverage, West stalling on doing anything trying to blame India and China instead, lack of funding, disagreement on how to address it, etc. Geopolitical threats (real and imaginary) quickly focus a lot of political will and money is easily found to mobilize military forces when needed. The economy also takes center stage as the current pressing issue, while climate change is easily deferred, in the hopes that the West can let China and India p ick up the burden of addressing emissions even though they have not contributed

to the historical build up of emissions that have started the recent changes in the climate. This page is an overview of the Durban conference. Read gCOP17?Durban Climate Conference h to learn more.

COP16?Cancun Climate Conference Posted Tuesday, January 04, 2011. An overview of the Climate Change Conference (also known as COP 16), held in Can cun, Mexico in the December 2010. This conference came a year after the Copenhagen conference which promised so mu ch but offered so little. It also came in the wake of WikiLeaks f revelations of h ow the US in particular tried to cajole various countries to support an accord t hat served US interests rather than the world fs. What resulted was an agreement that seems much watered down, even an almost reve rsal, from original aims and spirit of climate change mitigation. In effect, the main polluters (the industrialized nations) who should have borne the brunt of any emission reduction targets, have managed to reduce their commitments while i ncreasing those of the developing countries; a great global warming swindle if a ny! Read gCOP16?Cancun Climate Conference h to learn more. COP15?Copenhagen Climate Conference Posted Wednesday, December 30, 2009. An overview of the Climate Change Conference (also known as COP 15), held in Cop enhagen, Denmark, in the middle of December, 2009. There was a lot of hope and optimism before this conference that a meaningful cl imate negotiation could be agreed to, as climate change concerns are increasing rapidly. Instead, a mixture of posturing from nations such as China and the US, and the i nability for nations to agree on numerous issues led to a meeting failure. But amongst the various reasons for failure are concerns that repeatedly show th emselves every year at these climate conferences. Read gCOP15?Copenhagen Climate Conference h to learn more.

COP14?Pozna? Climate Conference Posted Thursday, January 01, 2009. An overview of the Climate Change Conference (also known as COP 14), held in Poz na?, Poland, at the beginning of December, 2008. As with past conferences, this too was not without its controversies. For example, while the Adaptation Fund wa s launched the funding of it caused lots of disagreements. The conference came a t a time when Europe seemed to weaken their usually strong stance on climate cha nge action and on news that in recent years, emissions from industrialized natio ns had risen. Read gCOP14?Pozna? Climate Conference h to learn more.

COP13?Bali Climate Conference Posted Tuesday, January 01, 2008. The UN conference on climate change held in Bali, Indonesia in December 2007 led to a final agreement known as the gBali Roadmap h. The Bali Roadmap outlined a new negotiating process to be concluded by 2009 to feed into a post-Kyoto (i.e. a p

ost-2012) international agreement on climate change. The Roadmap included a deci sion to launch an Adaptation Fund as well as further decisions on technology tra nsfer and on reducing emissions from deforestation. However, as with past climat e conferences, this was not without its controversies, especially Europe and dev eloping countries f criticisms of the US position and negotiation tactics. Read gCOP13?Bali Climate Conference h to learn more. COP11?Montreal Climate Conference Posted Thursday, December 29, 2005. December 2005 saw the eleventh session of the United Nations Framework Conventio n on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (or, COP11 for short). At the same time, the first Meeting of the Parties of the Protocol (MOP 1) took pl ace. These meetings attempted to advance discussions on the future emission redu ctions and ways to help developing countries. The US walked out at one point of the meeting, but were eventually convinced to come back to the conference. The r esult, some felt, was a slightly weakened text, but something to build upon for the future. Developing countries were also discussed, but issues of climate just ice and equity seemed to be missing once again. Read gCOP11?Montreal Climate Conference h to learn more. COP10?Buenos Aires Climate Conference Posted Friday, December 24, 2004. December 2004 saw the tenth session of the United Nations Framework Convention o n Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (or, COP10 for short). This marked the 10th anniversary of the Kyoto Protocol. Countries were to discuss ada ption measures, and the entry of the Kyoto Protocol into force. In addition, som e discussion on post-Kyoto was also attempted. Read gCOP10?Buenos Aires Climate Conference h to learn more. COP8?Delhi Climate Conference Last updated Saturday, November 02, 2002. October 23 to November 1, 2002 saw the eighth session of the United Nations Fram ework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (or, COP8 for short). Leading up to this conference there has still been little progress o n reducing emissions. Read gCOP8?Delhi Climate Conference h to learn more. COP7?Marrakesh Climate Conference Posted Sunday, November 11, 2001. October 29 to November 9, 2001 saw the seventh session of the United Nations Fra mework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (or, COP7 for short). The purpose of the meeting was to agree legal text covering outstan ding technical aspects of the political agreement reached in Bonn in July 2001 o n how to implement the Kyoto Protocol. While an agreement resulted, there are st ill concerns there will be little impact on emissions as a result. Read gCOP7?Marrakesh Climate Conference h to learn more. COP6?The Hague Climate Conference Last updated Tuesday, September 04, 2001. November 13 to November 24, 2000 saw the sixth session of the United Nations Fra mework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (or, COP6 for short). Each COP meeting is where nations meet to evaluate the accords and compliance with meeting emissions reduction targets. This one was intended to wr ap up three years of negotiations on the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. I nstead though, the talks pretty much collapsed.

Read

gCOP6?The Hague Climate Conference h to learn more.

COP4?Buenos Aires Climate Conference Last updated Sunday, November 12, 2000. November 2 - November 13, 1998 in Buenos Aires, Argentina the Fourth Meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP-4) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held. There were many issues that still needed to be discuss ed, especially on the trading of Carbon emissions and equity between the rich an d developing nations. Read gCOP4?Buenos Aires Climate Conference h to learn more. COP3?Kyoto Protocol Climate Conference Last updated Friday, February 15, 2002. 1997, at the Conference of Parties III (COP3), Kyoto, Japan, the Kyoto conferenc e on climate change took place. There, developed countries agreed to specific ta rgets for cutting their emissions of greenhouse gases. A general framework was d efined for this, with specifics to be detailed over the next few years. This bec ame known as the Kyoto Protocol. The US proposed to just stabilize emissions and not cut them at all, while the European Union called for a 15% cut. In the end, there was a trade off, and industrialized countries were committed to an overal l reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases to 5.2% below 1990 levels for the p eriod 2008 - 2012. (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in its 19 90 report that a 60% reduction in emissions was needed...) As with the following COP meetings, there was enormous media propaganda by affected big businesses an d by countries such as the U.S. who were openly hostile to the treaty. In fact o ne of the first things George Bush did when he came to power was to oppose the K yoto Protocol. Read gCOP3?Kyoto Protocol Climate Conference h to learn more. The Ozone Layer And Climate Change Last updated Saturday, June 08, 2002. Scientists believe that Global Warming will lead to a weaker Ozone layer, becaus e as the surface temperature rises, the stratosphere (the Ozone layer being foun d in the upper part) will get colder, making the natural repairing of the Ozone slower. Read gThe Ozone Layer and Climate Change h to learn more. El Nino And Climate Change Last updated Wednesday, July 04, 2001. The 1997 Nino caused huge problems all over the world, from droughts to floods a nd poor yield of crops. It is thought that there is a link between climate chang e and the severity of Nino. Read gEl Nino and Climate Change h to learn more. Climate Change Links For More Information Last updated Sunday, January 31, 2010. Read gClimate Change Links for more Information h to learn more. Environmental Issues Last updated Sunday, January 19, 2014. Environmental issues are also a major global issue. Humans depend on a sustainab le and healthy environment, and yet we have damaged the environment in numerous ways. This section introduces other issues including biodiversity, climate chang e, animal and nature conservation, population, genetically modified food, sustai nable development, and more.

Read

gEnvironmental Issues h to learn more.

Share This Page With: Bookmark or share this with others using some popular social bookmarking web sit es: FacebookStumbleUponGoogledel.icio.usDiggReddit Link To This Page From Your Site/Blog Copy/paste the following HTML code to your page: c to produce this: Anup Shah, Climate Change and Global Warming, Global Issues, Updated: January 19 , 2014 Alternatively, copy/paste the following MLA citation format for this page: Shah, Anup. gClimate Change and Global Warming. h Global Issues. 19 Jan. 2014. Web. 17 Feb. 2014. <http://www.globalissues.org/issue/178/climate-change-and-globalwarming>. Other Options Find This Page/Site Useful? Let a friend know Subscribe to the RSS web feed Follow this site on Facebook Follow this site on Twitter Other Options Printable Version Get Free Email Updates Support this site Feedback Author And Page Information by Anup Shah Created: Monday, July 20, 1998 Last Updated: Sunday, January 19, 2014 Back to top Navigation Share This Facebook StumbleUpon Google del.icio.us Digg Reddit Page-related navigation Page Options Printable Version Email Page to a Friend Related Articles Climate Change Intro Global Dimming UN Convention Reactions Global Warming Media Climate Justice Flexibility Mechanisms Carbon Sinks and Forests Climate & Biodiversity

Show more Related Issues Environmental Issues (48) Related Videos Sir Crispin Tickell: Clean, Green Growth in China C.S. Kiang: China fs Future Martin Khor: Historical Responsibility for Climate Change Emission Reduction Climate Change Impacts on Women in Bolivia Climate Change Impacts on Women in Bolivia - Longer Version Climate Change Impacts on Women in Vietnam Global temperature anomalies, 1880 - 2011 Related News DRC Mega-Dam to Be Funded by Private Sector, Groups Charge Website Welcomes Wildlife Trafficking Whistleblowers Fossil Fuel Subsidies Dampen Shift Towards Renewables Site Navigation Advertisements Most Popular Pages Poverty Facts and Stats Global Financial Crisis Causes of Poverty Climate Change and Global Warming Environmental Issues Racism World Military Spending Foreign Aid Poverty Around The World Women fs Rights Recently Updated Conservation Tobacco COP 19?Warsaw Climate Change Intro Global Warming Media Surveillance World Military Spending Global Financial Crisis Loss of Biodiversity Coral Reefs Useful Resources Videos News Headlines Books and Reading List Links and Resources Favorite Quotes Other Issues Aid (6) Arms Control (7) Arms Trade (10) Biodiversity (9) Causes of Poverty (14) Conflicts in Africa (13) Consumption & Consumerism (14) Corporations (13) Economics, Trade (67) Show more gGive a man a fish; you have fed him for today. Teach a man to fish; and you have fed him for a lifetime. h ? Old Chinese Saying

c Copyright 1998?2014 Global Issues Social, Political, Economic and Environmental Issues That Affect Us All Search this site search Get free updates via Email Web/RSS Feed Facebook Twitter Main menu: Home About Issues World News Support Contact You are here:HomeIssuesArticlesClimate Change and Global Warming Introduction Climate Change and Global Warming Introduction Author And Page Information by Anup ShahThis Page Last Updated Monday, November 11, 2013 This page: http://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climate-change-and-global-war ming-introduction. To print all information e.g. expanded side notes, shows alternative links, use the print version: http://www.globalissues.org/print/article/233 This web page has the following sub-sections: What Is Global Warming And Climate Change? What Are The Main Indicators Of Climate Change? What Is The Greenhouse Effect? The Greenhouse Effect Is Natural. What Do We Have To Do With It? The Climate Has Always Varied In The Past. How Is This Any Different? Doesn ft Recent Record Cold Weather Disprove Global Warming? Has Global Warming Paused Due To Recent Surface Temperature Drops? Most Global Warming Is Going Into The Oceans 2010 Joint Warmest On Record; Most Of 2000s In Top 10 What Are The Impacts Of Global Warming? Rapid Changes In Global Temperature Small Average Global Temperature Change Can Have A Big Impact Extreme Weather Patterns Super-Storms Extreme Weather Events On The Increase Ecosystem Impacts Rising Sea Levels Increasing Ocean Acidification Increase In Pests And Disease Failing Agricultural Output; Increase In World Hunger Agriculture And Livelihoods Are Already Being Affected Women Face Brunt Of Climate Change Impacts Greenhouse Gases And Emissions Resulting From Human Activity Differences In Greenhouse Gas Emission Around The World The United States Is The World fs Largest Emitter Of Greenhouse Gases Per Capita The Previously 15-Member European Union Is Also Large Emitter Stalling Kyoto Protocol Gets Push By Russia Canada Pulls Out Of Kyoto Rich Nation Emissions Have Been Rising Rich Nations Have Outsourced Their Carbon Emissions Developing Countries Affected Most Greenhouse Gas Emissions Continue To Rise

Skepticism On Global Warming Or That It Can Be Human-Induced Bush Administration Accused Of Silencing Its Own Climate Scientists Many Sources Of Greenhouse Gases Being Discovered Warming Happening More Quickly Than Predicted What Is Global Warming And Climate Change? Global warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global tempera tures. Natural events and human activities are believed to be contributing to an increase in average global temperatures. This is caused primarily by increases in ggreenhouse h gases such as Carbon Dioxide (CO2). A warming planet thus leads to a change in climate which can affect weather in v arious ways, as discussed further below. What Are The Main Indicators Of Climate Change? As explained by the US agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrati on (NOAA), there are 7 indicators that would be expected to increase in a warmin g world (and they are), and 3 indicators would be expected to decrease (and they are): Air temperature near surface, humidity, temperature over oceans, sea surface tem perature, sea levels, ocean heat content and temperature over land are all incre asing, while glaciers, snow cover and sea ice are all decreasing. Ten indicators for a warming world, Past Decade Warmest on Record According to S cientists in 48 Countries, NOAA, July 28, 2010 What Is The Greenhouse Effect? The term greenhouse is used in conjunction with the phenomenon known as the gree nhouse effect. Energy from the sun drives the earth fs weather and climate, and heats the surface; In turn, the earth radiates energy back into space; Some atmospheric gases (water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases) trap of the outgoing energy, retaining heat somewhat like the glass panels of a house; These gases are therefore known as greenhouse gases; The greenhouse effect is the rise in temperature on Earth as certain gases e atmosphere trap energy. earth fs some green in th

Image source: Greenhouse Effect, Wikipedia (Link includes detailed explanation of the above image). Note, image above expre sses energy exchanges in watts per square meter (W/m2) Six main greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) (which is 20 t imes as potent a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide) and nitrous oxide (N2O), plus three fluorinated industrial gases: hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Water vapor is also considered a greenho use gas. The Greenhouse Effect Is Natural. What Do We Have To Do With It? Many of these greenhouse gases are actually life-enabling, for without them, hea t would escape back into space and the Earth fs average temperature would be a lot colder. However, if the greenhouse effect becomes stronger, then more heat gets trapped than needed, and the Earth might become less habitable for humans, plants and an imals. Carbon dioxide, though not the most potent of greenhouse gases, is ificant one. Human activity has caused an imbalance in the natural greenhouse effect and related processes. NASA fs Earth Observatory g the effect human activity is having on the natural carbon cycle, the most sign cycle of the is worth quotin for example:

In addition to the natural fluxes of carbon through the Earth system, anthropoge nic (human) activities, particularly fossil fuel burning and deforestation, are also releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. When we mine coal and extract oil from the Earth fs crust, and then burn these fos sil fuels for transportation, heating, cooking, electricity, and manufacturing, we are effectively moving carbon more rapidly into the atmosphere than is being removed naturally through the sedimentation of carbon, ultimately causing atmosp heric carbon dioxide concentrations to increase. Also, by clearing forests to support agriculture, we are transferring carbon fro m living biomass into the atmosphere (dry wood is about 50 percent carbon). The result is that humans are adding ever-increasing amounts of extra carbon dio xide into the atmosphere. Because of this, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrat ions are higher today than they have been over the last half-million years or lo nger. ? The Carbon Cycle; The Human Role, Earth Observatory, NASA Another way of looking at this is with a simple analogy: consider salt and human health: A small amount of salt is essential for human life; Slightly more salt in our diet often makes food tastier; Too much salt can be harmful to our health. In a similar way, greenhouse gases are essential for our planet; the planet may be able to deal with slightly increased levels of such gases, but too much will affect the health of the whole planet. Image source: NASA. (Note, values shown represent Carbon Gigatons being absorbed and released) The other difference between the natural carbon cycle and human-induced climate change is that the latter is rapid. This means that ecosystems have less chance of adapting to the changes that will result and so the effects felt will be wors e and more dramatic it things continue along the current trajectory. The Climate Has Always Varied In The Past. How Is This Any Different? Throughout Earth fs history the climate has varied, sometimes considerably. Past w arming does not automatically mean that today fs warming is therefore also natural . Recent warming, has been shown to be due to human industrialization processes. John Cook, writing the popular Skeptical Science blog summarizes the key indicat ors of a human finger print on climate change: Less heat escaping to space, shrinking thermosphere, cooling stratosphere, risin g tropopause, less oxygen in the air, more fossil fuel carbon in the air, 30 bil lion tonnes of C02 per year, more heat returning to Earth, nights warming faster than days, and more fossil fuel carbon in coral are all signs of human-induced climate change. John Cook, 10 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change, Skeptical Sci ence, July 30, 2010 This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice core s and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 ha s increased since the Industrial Revolution: Only in the past few decades has the amount of Carbon Dioxide dramatically incre ased to levels not seen in the past 650,000 years (Source: NOAA) via: Climate Change: How do we know? NASA, accessed October 27, 2

009 The above covers hundreds of thousands of years and shows how atmospheric CO2 le vels have dramatically increased in recent years. If we gzoom h in on just the past 250 years, we see the following: Emissions significantly increase in the past 100 years. The graph almost looks l ike an exponential curve Global CO2 emissions, 1751?2007, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), August 2010, DOI:10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2010 NASA fs Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) tracks atmospheric global temper ature climate trends. As environmental engineer, D Kelly O fDay, writes on Process ingTrends.com explains: gTo facilitate assessments of long term trends, climatolo gists compare the mean for a base period with the annual mean. Differences betwe en the annual mean and baseline mean are called anomalies. GISS uses the 1951 1980 period for their baseline period. They use the difference between the annua l mean and the baseline mean to determine the global temperature anomaly for the year. h O fDay produced a chart showing global temperature anomalies between 1800 and 2006 using data from NASA. I updated the chart he provided to include recently updat ed data up to 2011: Sources: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, NASA, accessed March 4, 2012; Global temperature, 1800-2006, ProcessTrends.com, accessed October 27, 2009 In the 1880 - 1935 period, the temperature anomaly was consistently negative. In contrast, the since 1980 the anomaly has been consistently positive. The 1917 t emperature anomaly (-0.47oC) was the lowest year on record. Since 1917, global t emperature has warmed, with the most recent years showing the highest anomalies of +0.6 oC in the past 120 years. With slightly updated data from NASA fs GISS an animation shows how most parts of the world have experienced this warming, recently: Global temperatures have warmed significantly since 1880, the beginning of what scientists call the gmodern record. h At this time, the coverage provided by weathe r stations allowed for essentially global temperature data. As greenhouse gas em issions from energy production, industry and vehicles have increased, temperatur es have climbed, most notably since the late 1970s. Source: NASA Finds 2011 Nint h Warmest Year on Record, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, January 19, 2012 And, as Sir David Attenborough explains, natural variability alone does not expl ain recent temperature rise: Sir David Attenborough: The Truth About Climate Change, October 22, 2006 As well as the links above, see also Skeptical Science, which, while examining t he arguments of global warming skepticism, provides information on causes of ant hropogenic global warming. Doesn ft Recent Record Cold Weather Disprove Global Warming? In different parts of the world, there have been various weather events that at first thought would question global warming. For example, some regions have expe rienced extremely cold winters (sometimes record-breaking), while others have ex perienced heavy rain, etc. The confusion that sometimes arises is the difference between climate change and weather patterns. Weather patterns describe short term events, while climate ch ange is a longer process that affects the weather. A warming planet is actually

consistent with increasing cold, increasing rain and other extremes, as an overa ll warmer planet changes weather patterns everywhere at all times of the year. To get an idea of how looking at short term changes only can lead to a conclusio n that global warming has stopped, or doesn ft exist, see Alden Griffith fs has glob al warming stopped? (As an aside, those crying foul of global warming claims when going through extr emely cold weather in Europe for example in 2010, later found their summers to b e full of heat waves. The point here is that a specific short period such as a c old winter ? or even a hot summer ? is not proof alone that global warming has s topped (or increased); short term variability can mask longer term trends.) This means, for example, increasing temperatures can actually mean more snowfall ? at least until it becomes too warm for significant snowfall to happen. The additional concern, as meteorology professor Scott Mandia explains, it can t ake decades for the climate temperatures to increase in response to increased gr eenhouse gas emissions. So up until now, perhaps it has been easier for skeptics to deny climate change is occurring or that humans are responsible. Has Global Warming Paused Due To Recent Surface Temperature Drops? As the IPCC fs fifth major report draws to a conclusion in 2013 it notes that scie ntists have increased their certainty of human-induced warming to 95%. It was gex tremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century h, as summarized PDF formatted document by the IPCC. As their fifth report started to come out, a number of climate skeptics and medi a outlets were arguing that the slowdown shown in surface temperatures in recent years proved global warming had stopped or paused. Yet, this slowdown was in su rface temperatures only even though the overall trend (using a more longer perio d which is more valid in climate change analysis) showed an increase in temperat ures. Two simple graphs help illustrate this: The dip in warming in recent years is surface temperatures only. When looked aga inst a sufficiently and more appropriately larger time frame, and compared to th e much larger warming occuring in the oceans, that dip is miniscule Source: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , IPCC Working Group I c ontribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, September 2013. Chapter 3. [Not e, graph modified to add the zoomed in portion highlighting the area skeptics us e to claim climate change has stopped.] The next graph is an animation from Skeptical Science showing how time-frames to interpret climate data is significant: Source: The Escalator, Skeptical Science, last accessed October 19, 2013 For further information on the above see also Does the global warming gpause h mean what you think it means?, from Skeptical Science. Most Global Warming Is Going Into The Oceans As this infographic shows, most of the warming is going into the oceans: Over 93% of global warming is going into the oceans Source: John Cook, Infographic on where global warming is going, SkepticalScienc e.com, January 20, 2011 (further notes on the source data used) As John Cook, creator of the graphic above says (see above link), gJust as it tak es time for a cup of coffee to release heat into the air, so to it takes time fo r the ocean to release its heat into the atmosphere. h.

The implications of this is further explained with Inter Press Service fs freezer analogy: The world fs northern freezer is on rapid defrost as large volumes of war m water are pouring into the Arctic Ocean, speeding the melt of sea ice. Indeed, as this chart also shows, the warming in the oceans has been occurring f or quite some time: Source: John Cook, The Earth continues to build up heat, Skeptical Science, Octo ber 12, 2011 One of John Bruno fs colleagues, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, talks about the impact climat e change will have on ocean ecosystems. A summary of the video here says that Ove Hoegh-Guldberg NCSE talk on climate change impacts on ocean ecosystems, Clim ate Shifts, January 21, 2011. gRapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations are driving ocean systems toward co nditions not seen for millions of years, with an associated risk of fundamental and irreversible ecological transformation. Changes in biological function in th e ocean caused by anthropogenic climate change go far beyond death, extinctions and habitat loss: fundamental processes are being altered, community assemblages are being reorganized and ecological surprises are likely. h D. Salmons also has a post at Skeptical Science that explains the impact of warm ing Arctic fs relation to the very cold recent winters further, using the followin g NASA map: The Arctic has warmed considerably more than average Source: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Stud ies, accessed January 30, 2011 As Salmons explains, the Arctic has been heating up, and studies show that is happening at two to thr ee times the global average. This rising temperature in the Arctic has served to reduce the region fs floating ice layer by more than 20%. And as you would expect , when the reflective ice and snow layer is stripped away, it leaves a dark blue sea. Now, what does the effect of the dark blue sea being exposed have on the Arctic area? Well, the ice and snow layer reflects the majority of the sun fs rays harmle ssly back into space. But the dark blue of the exposed sea absorbs the rays, aid ing the heating process. ? D. Salmons, Global Warming and Cold Winters, Skeptical Science, January 15, 20 11 2010 Joint Warmest On Record; Most Of 2000s In Top 10 NASA fs GISS Surface Temperature Analysis graph shown earlier (from 1800 to 2010) shows that temperature anomalies since 1980 have all been positive; i.e. it has been constantly hotter than normal. As the same data shows, the hottest years have all been since 1998: Global Top 10 Warmest Years (Jan-Dec) Anomaly C Anomaly F Source: Annual State of the Climate Global Analysis, National Climatic Data Cent er, NOAA, December 2010 2010 2005 1998 0.62 0.62 0.60 1.12 1.12 1.08

2003 0.58 1.04 2002 0.58 1.04 2009 0.56 1.01 2006 0.56 1.01 2007 0.55 0.99 2004 0.54 0.97 2001 0.52 0.94 Back to top What Are The Impacts Of Global Warming? For decades, greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide have been increasing in th e atmosphere. But why does that matter? Won ft warmer weather be nicer for everyon e? Rapid Changes In Global Temperature Increased greenhouse gases and the greenhouse effect has contributed to an overa ll warming of the Earth fs climate, leading to a global warming (even though some regions may experience cooling, or wetter weather, while the temperature of the planet on average would rise). Consider also the following: While year-to-year changes in temperature often reflect natural climatic variati ons such as El Nino/La Nina events, changes in average temperature from decade-t o-decade reveal long-term trends such as global warming. Each of the last three decades has been much warmer than the decade before. At the time, the 1980s was the hottest decade on record. In the 1990s, every year was warmer than the avera ge of the previous decade. The 2000s were warmer still. ? Past Decade Warmest on Record According to Scientists in 48 Countries, Nationa l Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), July 28, 2010 At the end of the 1990s, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) had noted t hat not only was the 1990s the warmest decade but at the time, the 1900s was the warmest century during the last 1,000 years. It is the rapid pace at which the temperature will rise that will result in many negative impacts to humans and the environment and this why there is such a wor ld-wide concern. Small Average Global Temperature Change Can Have A Big Impact Climate scientists admit that the chances of the world keeping average global te mperature at current levels are not going to be possible (humanity has done litt le to address things in the past couple of decades that these concerns have been known about). So, now, there is a push to contain temperature rises to an average 2 C increase (a s an average, this means some regions may get higher temperatures and others, lo wer). Even just a 2 C increase can have impacts around the world to biodiversity, agricul ture, the oceans etc (detailed further below). But in the lead up to important g lobal climate talks at the end of 2009, some delegates are skeptical that temper ature rises can be contained to a 2 C rise (or C0 2 levels of 350 ppm ). On October 22, 2009, the British Government and the UK fs Met Office (UK fs National Weather Service) unveiled a new map, showing what would happen if we allowed av erage global temperatures to increase to 4 C above pre-industrial levels (the high end of the UN IPCC projections): The impact of a global temperature rise of 4oC (7 oF), UK Met Office, October 22

, 2009 (See larger map) In short, we would not be able to cope with a 4 As the Met Office noted,

C average increase.

The poster shows that a four degree average rise will not be spread uniformly ac ross the globe. The land will heat up more quickly than the sea, and high latitu des, particularly the Arctic, will have larger temperature increases. The averag e land temperature will be 5.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. The impacts on human activity shown on the map are only a selection c. Agricultural yields are expected to decrease for all major cereal crops in all m ajor regions of production. Half of all Himalayan glaciers will be significantly reduced by 2050, leading to 23% of the population of China being deprived of th e vital dry season glacial melt water source. ? The impact of a global temperature rise of 4oC (7 oF), UK Met Office, October 22, 2009 Side Note Extreme Weather Patterns Most scientists believe that the warming of the climate will lead to more extrem e weather patterns such as: More hurricanes and drought; Longer spells of dry heat or intense rain (depending on where you are in the wor ld); Scientists have pointed out that Northern Europe could be severely affected with colder weather if climate change continues, as the arctic begins to melt and se nd fresher waters further south. It would effectively cut off the Gulf Stream th at brings warmth from the Gulf of Mexico, keeping countries such as Britain warm er than expected; In South Asia, the Himalayan glaciers could retreat causing water scarcity in th e long run. While many environmental groups have been warning about extreme weather conditio ns for a few years, the World Meteorological Organization announced in July 2003 that gRecent scientific assessments indicate that, as the global temperatures co ntinue to warm due to climate change, the number and intensity of extreme events might increase. h The WMO also notes that gNew record extreme events occur every year somewhere in the globe, but in recent years the number of such extremes have been increasing. h (The WMO limits the definition of extreme events to high temperatures, low temp eratures and high rainfall amounts and droughts.) The U.K fs Independent newspaper described the WMO fs announcement as gunprecedented h and gastonishing h because it cam e from a respected United Nations organization not an environmental group! Super-Storms Mentioned further above was the concern that more hurricanes could result. The l ink used was from the environmental organization WWF, written back in 1999. In A ugust/September 2004 a wave of severe hurricanes left many Caribbean islands and parts of South Eastern United States devastated. In the Caribbean many lives we re lost and there was immense damage to entire cities. In the U.S. many lives we re lost as well, some of the most expensive damage resulted from the successive hurricanes. In its wake, scientists have reiterated that such super-storms may be a sign of things to come. gGlobal warming may spawn more super-storms h, Inter Press Service (IPS) notes.

Interviewing a biological oceanography professor at Harvard University, IPS note s that the world fs oceans are approaching 27 degrees C or warmer during the summe r. This increases the odds of major storms. When water reaches such temperatures, more of it evaporates, priming hurricane o r cyclone formation. Once born, a hurricane needs only warm water to build and maintain its strength and intensity. Furthermore, gas emissions of greenhouse gases continue to trap more and more of the sun fs energy, that energy has to be dissipated, resulting in stronger storms, more intense precipitation and higher winds. h There is abundant evidence of an unprecedented number of severe weather events i n the past decade, [professor of biological oceanography at Harvard University, James] McCarthy says. In 1998, Hurricane Mitch killed nearly 20,000 people in Ce ntral America, and more than 4,000 people died during disastrous flooding in Chi na. Bangladesh suffered some of its worst floods ever the following year, as did Venezuela. Europe was hit with record floods in 2002, and then a record heat wa ve in 2003. More recently, Brazil was struck by the first-ever recorded hurricane in the Sou th Atlantic last March. gWeather records are being set all the time now. We fre in an era of unprecedented extreme weather events, h McCarthy said. Historical weather patterns are becoming less useful for predicting the future c onditions because global warming is changing ocean and atmospheric conditions. gIn 30 to 50 years f time, the Earth fs weather generating system will be entirely di fferent, h he predicted. ? Stephen Leahy, Global Warming May Spawn More Super-Storms, Inter Press Service , September 20, 2004 Extreme Weather Events On The Increase Looking at 2010 as a whole year revealed a variety of extreme weather events. A panel of climate and weather experts ranked the top 10 global weather/climate ev ents of 2010 which included heat waves to droughts to negative arctic oscillatio n (a climate pattern where cold Arctic air slides south while warmer air moves n orth, bringing snow storms and record cold temperatures to much of the Northern Hemisphere) show that a variety of weather events can occur as a result of chang ing climate: Top Ten Global Weather/Climate Events of 2010 Rank Event When Occurred Description Source: Top Ten Global Weather/Climate Events of 2010 National Climatic Data Cen ter, NOAA, December 2010 These lists were compiled and voted on during the first week of December. Signif icant events, such as the extreme winter weather in Europe and the flooding in A ustralia occurred after this date. These events have been included in an additio nal section titled, gHonorable Mention h, but may have warranted top ten placement. 1 Russo- European- Asian Heat Waves Summer A severe summer spawned drought, wildfires and crop failures across western Russia, where more than 15,0 00 people died. All-time high temperatures occurred in many cities and nations i n the region. China faced locust swarms during July. 2 2010 as [near] warmest on record Calendar Year According to NOA A, the globally-averaged temperature for 2010 will finish among the two warmest,

and likely the warmest, on record. Three months in 2010 were the warmest on rec ord for that month. 3 Pakistani Flooding Late July into August Rainfall related to the Asian Monsoon was displaced unusually westward, and more than a foot of rain fel l across a large area of the Upper Indus Valley. Subsequent flooding down the In dus River killed 1,600 people and displaced millions. 4 El Nino to La Nina Transition Mid-to-Late Boreal Spring ENSO, th e most prominent and far-reaching patterns of climate variability, saw a huge sw ing in mid-2010. Only 1973, 1983 and 1998 have seen larger within-year swings. 5 Negative Arctic Oscillation December?February The AO Index, wh ich is strongly correlated with wintertime cold air outbreaks, reached -4.27 for February, the largest negative anomaly since records began in 1950. Major cold air outbreaks occurred throughout the Northern Hemisphere. 6 Brazilian Drought Ongoing A severe drought parching northern Brazi l shrunk the Rio Negro, one of the Amazon River's most important tributaries, to its lowest level since records began in 1902 at its confluence with the Amazon. The Amazon's depth there fell more than 12 feet below its average. 7-tie Historically Inactive NE Pacific Hurricane Season May 15th?Novembe r 30th The Northeast Pacific Hurricane Season was one of the least active on re cord, produced the fewest named storms and hurricanes of the modern era, and had the earliest cessation of tropical activity (Sep 23) on record. 7-tie Historic N. Hemispheric Snow Retreat January through June Despite December 2009 having the second-largest snow cover extent of the satellite recor d (mid-1960s), the melt season was ferocious, contributing to spring floods in t he Northern U.S. and Canada. Following the early and pronounced snow melt, the N orth American, Eurasian and Hemispheric snow cover was the smallest on record fo r May and June 2010. 9 Minimum Sea Ice Extent Mid-September The 2010 sea ice minimum of 4.9 million sq km was the third smallest on record. The last four years (2007-2010) are the four smallest on record. The Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Rout e were simultaneously ice-free in September, a first in modern history. 10 China Drought First half of 2010 A persistent drought centered in the Yunan Province was touted as perhaps the worst in this region in more than 100 years. Major crop losses and lack of drinking water created severe problems for local residents. Ecosystem Impacts With global warming on the increase and species f habitats on the decrease, the ch ances for various ecosystems to adapt naturally are diminishing. Many studies have pointed out that the rates of extinction of animal and plant s pecies, and the temperature changes around the world since the industrial revolu tion, have been significantly different to normal expectations. An analysis of population trends, climate change, increasing pollution and emerg ing diseases found that 40 percent of deaths in the world could be attributed to environmental factors. Jaan Suurkula, M.D. and chairman of Physicians and Scientists for Responsible Ap plication of Science and Technology (PSRAST), paints a dire picture, but notes t hat he is only citing observations and conclusions from established experts and institutions. Those observations and conclusions note that global warming will l ead to the following situations, amongst others: Rapid global heating according to a US National Academy of Science warning; Dramatic increase in greenhouse gas emissions; Ozone loss aggravated by global warming; Ozone loss likely to aggravate global warming; Warming of the oceans leads to increased green house gasses; Permafrost thawing will aggravate global warming; Oceanic changes observed that may aggravate the situation;

A vicious circle whereby each problem will exacerbate other problems which will feedback into each other; Massive extinction of species will aggravate the environmental crisis; Sudden collapse of biological and ecological systems may occur, but will have a very slow recovery; While effective measures can decrease global warming and other problems the Worl d community has repeatedly failed to establish cooperation. The gvicious circle h Suurkula refers to is worth expanding. In his own words, but slightly reformatted: The ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gasses causes increasing global warming. This causes a more extensive destruction of ozone in the polar regions because o f accentuated stratospheric cooling. An increase of ozone destruction increases the UV-radiation that, combined with higher ocean temperature, causes a reduction of the gigantic carbon dioxide trap ping mechanism of the oceanic phytoplankton biomass; This accentuates the warming process. When the warming has reached a certain level, it will release huge amounts of gr eenhouse gasses trapped in the permafrost. This will enhance the global warming, and the polar destruction of ozone, and so on. The observed decrease of the thermohaline circulation [the various streams that transport warm and cold waters around the world and therefore has an important s tabilizing effect on world climate] further aggravates the situation. This is a global self-reinforcing vicious circle accelerating the global warming . ? Jaan Suurkula, World-wide cooperation required to prevent global crisis; Part one?the problem, Physicians and Scientists for Responsible Application of Scienc e and Technology, February 6, 2004 Rising Sea Levels Water expands when heated, and sea levels are expected to rise due to climate ch ange. Rising sea levels will also result as the polar caps begin to melt. Rising sea levels is already affecting many small islands. The WorldWatch Institute reports that g[t]he Earth fs ice cover is melting in more places and at higher rates than at any time since record keeping began h. (March 6 , 2000). Rising sea levels will impact many coastlines, and a large mass of humanity live s near the coasts or by major rivers. Analysis by the World Wildlife Fund has fo und that many cities are unprepared for climate change effects such as rising se a levels. Increasing Ocean Acidification Ocean Acidification; consumption of carbonate ions impede calcification. Source: Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory, NOAA Although it has gained less mainstream media attention, the effects of increasin g greenhouse emissions ? in particular carbon dioxide ? on the oceans may well b e significant. NOAA Ocean Acidification Demonstration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis tration, February 26, 2010 As explained by the US agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrati on (NOAA), the basic chemistry of ocean acidification is well understood.

These are the 3 main concepts: More CO2 in the atmosphere means more CO2 in the ocean; Atmospheric CO2 is dissolved in the ocean, which becomes more acidic; and The resulting changes in the chemistry of the oceans disrupts the ability of pla nts and animals in the sea to make shells and skeletons of calcium carbonate, wh ile dissolving shells already formed. Short overview of ocean acidification: Ocean Acidification, ABC World News Webca st, June 7, 2008 Scientists have found that oceans are able to absorb some of the excess CO2 rele ased by human activity. This has helped keep the planet cooler than it otherwise could have been had these gases remained in the atmosphere. However, the additional excess CO2 being absorbed is also resulting in the acidi fication of the oceans: When CO2 reacts with water it produces a weak acid calle d carbonic acid, changing the sea water chemistry. As the Global Biodiversity Ou tlook report explains, the water is some 30% more acidic than pre-industrial tim es, depleting carbonate ions ? the building blocks for many marine organisms. In addition, gconcentrations of carbonate ions are now lower than at any time dur ing the last 800,000 years. The impacts on ocean biological diversity and ecosys tem functioning will likely be severe, though the precise timing and distributio n of these impacts are uncertain. h (See p. 58 of the report.) Although millions of years ago CO2 levels were higher, today fs change is occurrin g rapidly, giving many marine organisms too little time to adapt. Some marine cr eatures are growing thinner shells or skeletons, for example. Some of these crea tures play a crucial role in the food chain, and in ecosystem biodiversity. Clay animation by school children: The other CO2 problem, March 23, 2009 (commis sioned by EPOCA) Some species may benefit from the extra carbon dioxide, and a few years ago scie ntists and organizations, such as the European Project on OCean Acidification, f ormed to try to understand and assess the impacts further. One example of recent findings is a tiny sand grain-sized plankton responsible f or the sequestration of 25?50% of the carbon the oceans absorb is affected by in creasing ocean acidification. This tiny plankton plays a major role in keeping a tmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations at much lower levels than they wo uld be otherwise so large effects on them could be quite serious. Other related problems reported by the Inter Press Service include more oceanic dead zones (areas where there is too little oxygen in the sea to support life) a nd the decline of important coastal plants and forests, such as mangrove forests that play an important role in carbon absorption. This is on top of the already declining ocean biodiversity that has been happening for a few decades, now. Scientists now believe that ocean acidification is unparalleled in the last 300 million years, graising the possibility that we are entering an unknown territory of marine ecosystem change. h Increase In Pests And Disease An increase in pests and disease is also feared. A report in the journal Science in June 2002 described the alarming increase in the outbreaks and epidemics of diseases throughout the land and ocean based wild life due to climate changes.

One of the authors points out that, gClimate change is disrupting natural ecosyst ems in a way that is making life better for infectious diseases. h Failing Agricultural Output; Increase In World Hunger The Guardian summarizes a United Nations warning that, gOne in six countries in t he world face food shortages this year because of severe droughts that could bec ome semi-permanent under climate change. h Drought and desertification are starting to spread and intensify in some parts o f the world already. Agriculture And Livelihoods Are Already Being Affected Failing agriculture in the future have long been predicted. Food and Global Warming, ScienCentral, January 7, 2009 Looking to 2100, scientists who looked at projections of global warming fs impact on the average temperatures during the growing season fear that rising temperatu res will have a significant impact upon crop yields, most noticeably in the trop ics and sub tropics. While warm weather can often be good for some crops, hotter than average tempera tures for the entire season is often not good for plants. This would affect at least half the world fs population that either live in the re gion or rely on food coming from that region. IRIN (Integrated Regional Information Networks), part of the United Nations, has produced a series of short videos showing how some regions are already being af fected by climate change and are trying to adapt as a result: Changing cropsMelting glaciersWorsening floodsCreeping deserts Changing Crops One example is farmers in Nepal finding that cultivating rice isn ft as productive as before, and are changing to other crops as a result: Swapping Crops ? Climate Change, IRIN, June 28, 2009 In some cases, improved agricultural techniques may help, such as rainwater harv esting and drip irrigation. Some also believe genetically modified crops may be essential to deal with changing climates. Yet, there are many other crucial issu es that affect agriculture, such as poverty, political and economic causes of wo rld hunger, global trade policies (which create unequal trade and affect the poo rest countries the most), etc. See IRIN fs videos on climate change impacts in Africa and Asia for more short cli ps. Women Face Brunt Of Climate Change Impacts It is recognized that poorer nations will suffer the worst from climate change, either because of geographical reasons, and/or because they will have less resou rces to cope with a problem (mostly caused by emissions from rich countries over the past decades). In addition to poor countries, women are likely to suffer the worst, as the Unit ed Nations Population fund explains: Women?particularly those in poor countries?will be affected differently than men . They are among the most vulnerable to climate change, partly because in many c ountries they make up the larger share of the agricultural work force and partly

because they tend to have access to fewer income-earning opportunities. Women m anage households and care for family members, which often limits their mobility and increases their vulnerability to sudden weather-related natural disasters. D rought and erratic rainfall force women to work harder to secure food, water and energy for their homes. Girls drop out of school to help their mothers with the se tasks. This cycle of deprivation, poverty and inequality undermines the socia l capital needed to deal effectively with climate change. ? Facing a changing world: women, population and climate PDF formatted document, State of the World fs Population 2009, UNFPA, November 18, 2009, p.4 The UNFPA also captures this in some videos that accompanied their 2009 report. Women and Climate Change in Bolivia, UNFPA, November 2009 Women and Climate Change in Vietnam, UNFPA, November 2009 The first one is the above-described effects occurring in rural areas of Bolivia . The second one is on the impact on women in Vietnam. Back to top Greenhouse Gases And Emissions Resulting From Human Activity Every few years, leading climate scientists at the UN fs Intergovernmental Panel o n Climate Change (IPCC) have released major, definitive reports detailing the pr ogress in understanding climate change. From the outset they have recommended th at there be emission reductions. This body is comprised of hundreds of climate s cientists around the world. At the beginning of January 2007, the IPCC fs fourth major report summarized that they were even more certain than before of human-induced climate change because of better scientific understanding: Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide h ave increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far ex ceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide a re primarily due to agriculture. c The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate ha s improved since the Third Assessment Report (TAR), leading to very high confide nce that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has bee n one of warming. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhou se gas concentrations. ? Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis; Summary for Policymakers PDF formatted document, IPCC, February 5th, 2007 [emphasis is original] Their definition of gvery high confidence h and gvery likely h is a 90% chance of bein g correct. (Their 2001 report claimed a 66% certainty.) This report was produced by some 600 authors from 40 countries. Over 620 expert reviewers and a large number of government reviewers also participated, accordin g to the IPCC fs media advisory. As Inter Press Service notes, although the IPCC has become the ggold standard h for global scientific collaboration, their reports are inherently conservative: The IPCC operates under the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the Unit

ed Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and does not fund any research itself. I t collects, evaluates and synthesises scientific data. Any U.N. country can be a member of the IPCC and can challenge the findings in its reports. And consensus is required for every word in the gSummary for Policy Makers h section included in each report. It fs an inherently conservative process, with oil-rich countries like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia always trying to tone down the conclusions and emphasise uncertaint ies and unknowns, said Weaver. ? Stephen Leahy, Endless Summer Not As Nice As It Sounds, Inter Press Service, J anuary 25, 2007 Differences In Greenhouse Gas Emission Around The World As the World Resources Institute highlights there is a huge contrast between dev eloped/industrialized nations and poorer developing countries in greenhouse emis sions, as well as the reasons for those emissions. For example: In terms of historical emissions, industrialized countries account for roughly 8 0% of the carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere to date. Since 1950, the U.S. has emitted a cumulative total of roughly 50.7 billion tons of carbon, while Ch ina (4.6 times more populous) and India (3.5 times more populous) have emitted o nly 15.7 and 4.2 billion tons respectively (although their numbers will rise). Annually, more than 60 percent of global industrial carbon dioxide emissions ori ginate in industrialized countries, where only about 20 percent of the world fs po pulation resides. Much of the growth in emissions in developing countries results from the provisi on of basic human needs for growing populations, while emissions in industrializ ed countries contribute to growth in a standard of living that is already far ab ove that of the average person worldwide. This is exemplified by the large contr asts in per capita carbons emissions between industrialized and developing count ries. Per capita emissions of carbon in the U.S. are over 20 times higher than I ndia, 12 times higher than Brazil and seven times higher than China. At the 1997 Kyoto Conference, industrialized countries were committed to an over all reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases to 5.2% below 1990 levels for the period 2008?2012. (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in its 1990 report that a 60% reduction in emissions was needed c) The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) is an organization ? backed by the UN and various European governments ? attempting to compile, build and ma ke a compelling economics case for the conservation of ecosystems and biodiversi ty. In a report titled The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity for National and International Policy Makers 2009, TEEB noted different types of carbon emission s as gcolors of carbon h: Brown carbon Industrial emissions of greenhouse gases that affect the climate. Green carbon Carbon stored in terrestrial ecosystems e.g. plant biomass, soils, wetlands and pasture and increasingly recognized as a key item for negotiation in the UNFCCC. Blue carbon Carbon bound in the world fs oceans. An estimated 55% of all carbon in living orga nisms is stored in mangroves, marshes, sea grasses, coral reefs and macro-algae. Black carbon Formed through incomplete combustion of fuels and may be significantly reduced i f clean burning technologies are employed. But a mitigation approach needs to consider all these forms of carbon they note, not just one or two:

Past mitigation efforts concentrated on brown carbon, sometimes leading to land conversion for biofuel production which inadvertently increased emissions from g reen carbon. By halting the loss of green and blue carbon, the world could mitig ate as much as 25% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with co-benefits for biodiversity, food security and livelihoods (IPCC 2007, Nellemann et al. 2009). This will only be possible if mitigation efforts accommodate all four carbon col ors. ? The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity for National and International Po licy Makers 2009 PDF formatted document, p.18 The United States Is The World fs Largest Emitter Of Greenhouse Gases Per Capita Around 2007, China surpassed the US as the world fs largest emitter of greenhouse gases in terms of total output. Per person ( gper capita h), however, China fs emissio ns are much smaller. Until recently, the United States was the world fs largest emitter of greenhouse g ases. However, it remains the largest emitter when measured in terms of emission s per person. Due to its much longer period of industrialization, the US has emitted far more into the atmosphere than China (greenhouse gases such as CO2 linger on in the at mosphere for decades). In addition, the US: Accounts for roughly four percent of the world fs population; Accounts for approximately 20% of global emissions and some 40% of industrialize d country emissions; The Previously 15-Member European Union Is Also Large Emitter The previously 15 member-nations European Union (E.U.), if considered as a whole (for it is more comparable to the U.S.): Accounts for roughly 3 percent of the world fs population; Accounts for around 10% of global emissions and 24% of industrialized countries f man-made emissions of the six main gases; Recent years have seen a reduction in emissions from those initial 15-member sta tes. However, It is not near the level required; For the second consecutive year, in 2003, emissions from EU countries have actua lly increased slightly (though still remaining slightly lower than 1990 levels). Stalling Kyoto Protocol Gets Push By Russia The Kyoto Protocol was the climate change treaty negotiated in 1997, setting tar gets for emissions of greenhouse gases. In order to be binding under international law, the treaty would need ratificati on from the countries responsible for around 55% of the global greenhouse gas em issions of 1990. The U.S. being the world fs largest emitter of greenhouse gases, pulled out in 200 1, leaving treaty ratification dependent on Russia, responsible for 17% of world emissions. Russia has to cut emission levels from the Soviet days, and their em issions in the past decade has been far less, so it should not pose as much of a problem to reduce such emissions. Noting the above, the BBC commented on this adding that Kyoto was only ever a fi rst step ? now discussions on the next, more stringent, target on greenhouse gas emissions can begin. Canada Pulls Out Of Kyoto On December 13 2011, Canada pulled out of the Kyoto climate treaty ? which it is

legally allowed to do ? to condemnation domestically and internationally. One o f the main concerns had been the cost to the tax payer: (CAN)$14bn. Yet, the economic costs of inaction are in the trillions: Economic studies have consistently shown that mitigation (such as putting a pric e on carbon emissions) is several times less costly than trying to adapt to clim ate change. Above chart shows total costs for action on climate change by 2100 t o be about $11 trillion while damages will be about $8 trillion. With inaction, however, damages by 2100 will be around $20 trillion. By 2200, these numbers sho ot up (over $30 trillion if action taken, or over $70 if no action taken). Sourc e: The economic impacts of carbon pricing, SkepticalScience.com, March 1, 2012 (Some believe one of Canada fs motivations to leave Kyoto was on its gdesire to pro tect the lucrative but highly polluting exploitation of tar sands, the second bi ggest oil reserve in the world h, as The Guardian had noted.) Rich Nation Emissions Have Been Rising The UNFCCC reported (November 17, 2008) that although industrialized nations hav e reduced emissions between 1990 and 2006, in recent years, between 2000 and 200 6, greenhouse gas emissions have generally increased by 2.3% PDF formatted docum ent. Side Note This is despite an overall decrease of 4.7% since 1990. However, the more recent period suggests the rich country emission reductions are not sustainable. Furth ermore, it looks worse considering a large part of this decrease is because of t he collapse of the Soviet Union. As transition economies started to recover arou nd 2000, emissions have started to rise. Some nations with large reductions are also seeing limits, for example: UK (15.1% reduction) benefited by switching from coal to natural gas but that sw itch is largely in place now. Germany (18.2% reduction) has certainly invested in greenhouse gas emission redu ctions, but has been helped in large part because of reunification (East Germany , like much of eastern Europe and former Soviet states had economic problems, he nce less emissions at the time). Other reductions have come in part from relocating manufacturing to other places such as China, which now claims at least one third of its emissions are because of production for others. (See also this Climate Change Performance Index from German Watch and Climate Ac tion Network Europe, which attempts to rank over 57 nations that account for 90% of the world fs total greenhouse gas emissions, including industrialized nations and emerging economies.) Rich Nations Have gOutsourced h Their Carbon Emissions Global trade is an important feature of the modern world. The production and glo bal distribution of manufactured products thus form a large portion of global hu man carbon emissions. The Kyoto Protocol assigns carbon emissions to countries based on where producti on takes place rather than where things are consumed. For many years, critics of the Kyoto Protocol have long argued that this means r ich countries, who have outsourced much of their manufacturing to developing nat ions have an accounting trick they can use to show more emissions reduction than developing nations. The BBC noted back in 2005 that this outsourcing was already taking place, but t

his idea started way before the Kyoto Protocol came into being. In 1991 Larry Summers, then Chief Economist for the World Bank (and US Treasury Secretary, in the Clinton Administration, until George Bush and the Republican p arty came into power), had been a strong backer of structural adjustment policie s. He wrote in an internal memo: Just between you and me, shouldn ft the World Bank be encouraging more migration o f dirty industries to the LDCs [less developed countries]? c The economic logic be hind dumping a load of toxic waste in the lowest wage country is impeccable, and we should face up to that c Under-populated countries in Africa are vastly underpolluted; their air quality is probably vastly inefficiently low compared to Los Angeles or Mexico City c The concern over an agent that causes a one in a million change in the odds of prostate cancer is obviously going to be much higher in a country where people survive to get prostate cancer than in a country where und er-five mortality is 200 per thousand. ? Lawrence Summers, Let them eat pollution, The Economist, February 8, 1992. Quo ted from Vandana Shiva, Stolen Harvest, (South End Press, 2000) p.65; See also R ichard Robbins, Global Problems and the Culture of Capitalism (Allyn and Bacon, 1999), pp. 233-236 for a detailed look at this. Although the discussion above wasn ft about carbon emissions, the intention was th e same: rather than directly address the problem, off-shoring dirty industries t o the developing nations and let them deal with it. More recently, The Guardian provided a useful summary of the impacts of this app roach: carbon emissions cuts by developed countries since 1990 have been cancele d out by increases in imported goods from developing countries ? many times over . They were summarizing global figures compiled and published in the Proceedings o f the National Academy of Sciences of the US. And the findings seemed to vindica te what many environmental groups had said for many years about the Kyoto Protoc ol as noted earlier. In more detail: According to standard data, developed countries can claim to have reduced their collective emissions by almost 2% between 1990 and 2008. But once the carbon cos t of imports have been added to each country, and exports subtracted ? the true change has been an increase of 7%. If Russia and Ukraine ? which cut their CO2 e missions rapidly in the 1990s due to economic collapse ? are excluded, the rise is 12%. c Much of the increase in emissions in the developed world is due to the US, which promised a 7% cut under Kyoto but then did not to ratify the protocol. Emission s within its borders increased by 17% between 1990 and 2008 ? and by 25% when im ports and exports are factored in. In the same period, UK emissions fell by 28 million tonnes, but when imports and exports are taken into account, the domestic footprint has risen by more than 1 00 million tonnes. Europe achieved a 6% cut in CO2 emissions, but when outsourci ng is considered that is reduced to 1%. c The study shows a very different picture for countries that export more carbon-i ntensive goods than they import. China, whose growth has been driven by export-b

ased industries, is usually described as the world's largest emitter of CO2, but its footprint drops by almost a fifth when its imports and exports are taken in to account, putting it firmly behind the US. China alone accounts for a massive 75% of the developed world's offshored emissions, according to the paper. ? Duncan Clark, Carbon cuts by developed countries cancelled out by imported goo ds, The Guardian, April 25, 2011 In addition, as Climate News Network notes, Asian countries have been cutting em issions faster than Europe and the US. At the same time, there are signs of prog ress in Europe and the US, too. Germany for example is known to be pushing for r enewables more than most. While recently the US has seen a drop in carbon emissi ons while seeing some economic growth. Developing Countries Affected Most It has been known for some time know that developing countries will be affected the most. Reasons vary from lacking resources to cope, compared to developed nat ions, immense poverty, regions that many developing countries are in happen to b e the ones where severe weather will hit the most, small island nations area alr eady seeing sea level rising, and so on. German Watch published a Global Climate Risk Index at the end of 2011 listing na tions that would be affected the most from climate change based on extreme weath er such as hurricanes and floods. Between 1991 and 2010 they found these were the most affected nations: Bangladesh Myanmar Honduras Nicaragua Haiti Vietnam Dominican Republic Pakistan Korea, DPR Philippines Much of Asia, as well as wealthier areas such as the US, Russia and Australia ha ve also experienced specific incidents of very damaging extreme weather that the climate risk index captures: Climate Risk Index, 1990-2011 Weather-related loss events and their impacts on countries in 2010 and 1991 to 2 010 Climate Risk Index 2012, ClimateWatch, November 29, 2011 (Click image for larger version) Into 2013, November saw possibly the largest ever typhoon, Hiayan, make landfall and cause incredible devastation to parts of the Philippines with at least 10,0 00 feared dead and more than 9 million affected. Geostationary satellites of the Japan Meteorological Agency (MTSat 2) and EUMETS AT (Meteosat-7) captured the extraordinary size of typhoon Hiayan as it approach ed the Philippines. Source. c 2013 JMA/EUMETSAT. Hiayan struck just days before the start of a major UN conference on climate cha nge perhaps acting as a wakeup call to the negotiators regarding potential impac ts of inaction. While no single event can easily be attributed to climate change , as the Institute for Public Accuracy notes, this devastating typhoon demonstra tes how the Global South pays the price for emissions historically from the Nort h. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Continue To Rise

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) noted in November 2013 that the amou nt of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2012, cont inuing an upward and accelerating trend which is driving climate change and will shape the future of our planet for hundreds and thousands of years. Carbon dioxide, mainly from fossil fuel-related emissions, accounted for 80% of this increase. The atmospheric increase of CO2 from 2011 to 2012 was higher than its average growth rate over the past ten years. (The International Energy Agency, IEA, also reported this earlier in the year.) So despite increased global warming concerns and calls for action, little seems to have been achieved due to the political challenges, and skepticism that aboun ds. Back to top Skepticism On Global Warming Or That It Can Be Human-Induced Cartoon Depicting the Denial of Global Warming c Anne Ward Penguin For a very long time, something of contention and debate in the U.S. had been wh ether or not a lot of climate change has in fact been induced by human activitie s, while many scientists around the world, Europe especially, have been more con vinced that this is the case. In May 2002, the Bush Administration in the U.S. did admit a link between human activities and climate change. However, at the same time the administration has continued its controversial stance of maintaining that it will not participate i n the international treaty to limit global warming, the Kyoto Protocol, due to e conomic priorities and concerns. (More about the Kyoto Protocol, U.S. and others f actions/inactions is discussed in subsequent pages on this section.) Throughout the 1990s, especially in the United States, but in other countries as well, those who would try and raise the importance of this issue, and suggest t hat we are perhaps over-consuming, or unsustainably using our resources etc, wer e faced with a lot of criticism and ridicule. The previous link is to an article by George Monbiot, writing in 1999. In 2004, he notes a similar issue, whereby media attempts at balance has led to gfalse balancing h where disproportionate time is given to more fringe scientists or those with less credibility or with addit ional agendas, without noting so, and thus gives the impression that there is mo re debate in the scientific community about whether or not climate change is an issue to be concerned about or not: Picture a situation in which most of the media, despite the overwhelming weight of medical opinion, refused to accept that there was a connection between smokin g and lung cancer. Imagine that every time new evidence emerged, they asked some one with no medical qualifications to write a piece dismissing the evidence and claiming that there was no consensus on the issue. Imagine that the BBC, in the interests of gdebate h, wheeled out one of the tiny nu mber of scientists who says that smoking and cancer aren ft linked, or that giving up isn ft worth the trouble, every time the issue of cancer was raised. Imagine that, as a result, next to nothing was done about the problem, to the de light of the tobacco industry and the detriment of millions of smokers. We would surely describe the newspapers and the BBC as grossly irresponsible. Now stop imagining it, and take a look at what fs happening. The issue is not smok ing, but climate change. The scientific consensus is just as robust, the misrepo rting just as widespread, the consequences even graver.

c gThe scientific community has reached a consensus, h the [U.K.] government fs chief s cientific adviser, Professor David King, told the House of Lords last month. gI d o not believe that amongst the scientists there is a discussion as to whether gl obal warming is due to anthropogenic effects. gIt is man-made and it is essentially [caused by] fossil fuel burning, increased methane production c and so on. h Sir David chose his words carefully. There is a di scussion about whether global warming is due to anthropogenic (man-made) effects . But it is not?or is only seldom?taking place among scientists. It is taking pl ace in the media, and it seems to consist of a competition to establish the oute r reaches of imbecility. c But these [skeptics dangerous than the change. It appears viting a sceptic to and illogical points against climate change] are rather less BBC, and its insistence on gbalancing h its coverage of climate to be incapable of running an item on the subject without in comment on it.

Usually this is either someone from a corporate-funded thinktank (who is, of cou rse, never introduced as such) or the professional anti-environmentalist Philip Stott. Professor Stott is a retired biogeographer. Like almost all the prominent sceptics he has never published a peer-reviewed paper on climate change. But he has made himself available to dismiss climatologists f peer-reviewed work as the g lies h of ecofundamentalists. This wouldn ft be so objectionable if the BBC made it clear that these people are not climatologists, and the overwhelming majority of qualified scientific opinio n is against them. Instead, it leaves us with the impression that professional o pinion is split down the middle. It fs a bit like continually bringing people on t o the programme to suggest that there is no link between HIV and Aids. What makes all this so dangerous is that it plays into the hands of corporate lo bbyists. A recently leaked memo written by Frank Luntz, the US Republican and co rporate strategist, warned that gThe environment is probably the single issue on which Republicans in general?and President Bush in particular?are most vulnerabl e c Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, thei r views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need c to mak e the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue. h ? George Monbiot, Beware the fossil fools, The Guardian, April 27, 2004 Monbiot fs comments above were over 5 years ago (as of writing), and yet some of t hose concerns, especially about false balancing, carry on today. Gary Schmidt is a leading climate researcher working for NASA. He is also a cont ributor to RealClimate.org, a blog by climate scientists that attempt to dispel misinformation by climate skeptics and provide background information often miss ing in mainstream media. In one of his posts, he laments at the continual divers ion caused by misinformation: Recently there has been more of a sense that the issues being discussed (in the media or online) have a bit of a groundhog day quality to them. The same nonsens e, the same logical fallacies, the same confusions ? all seem to be endlessly re peated. The same strawmen are being constructed and demolished as if they were p art of a make-work scheme for the building industry attached to the stimulus pro posal. ? Gary Schmidt, Groundhog Day, RealClimate.org, June 8, 2009

However, (and perhaps belatedly) there is growing public acceptance of human-ind uced climate change as reports such as the US Global Change Research Program and the UK Met Office assert things like current climate change happening now and h uman-induced and that they will cause many problems. But, as well as growing acceptance, there is also louder vocal opposition, and t he repeated gnonsense h and glogical fallacies h that Schmidt was concerned about seem s to have had an effect upon the general public ? in the US, anyway; fewer Ameri cans believe in global warming (as the Washington Post headlined it. Amongst scientists, however, there is less skepticism: 11% of US scientists from any field disagree with human-induced climate change, while only 1% of US clima tologists disagree, according to the following: Climate Change: A Consensus Among Scientists?, informationisbeautiful.net, Decem ber 23, 2009 Asking who are among the 11% of skeptical scientists amongst all science fields, almost half are engineers. For more detailed information, the following sites can be useful: Scienceblogs.com provides a summary of the various claims of climate change deni ers grist.org provides a similar list as ScienceBlogs RealClimate.org is an authoritative blog maintained by some of the world fs leadin g climate scientists. They often attempt to explain very technical issues to lay people and often try to address common myths and other claims Skeptical Science is another blog that looks at various claims from skeptics and addresses them. Bush Administration Accused Of Silencing Its Own Climate Scientists As revealed towards the end of January 2006, NASA fs top climate scientist said NA SA and the Bush Administration tried to silence him. While NASA said this was standard procedure to ensure an orderly flow of informa tion, the scientist, Dr. James Hansen disagreed, saying that such procedures had already prevented the public from fully grasping recent findings about climate change that point to risks ahead. Dr. Hansen, according to the New York Times reporting this, noted that these wer e gfresh efforts h to silence him because he had said that significant emission cut s could be achieved with existing technologies, particularly in the case of moto r vehicles, and that without leadership by the United States, climate change wou ld eventually leave the earth ga different planet. h (By contrast, the Bush adminis tration fs policy is to use voluntary measures to slow, but not reverse, the growt h of emissions.) Furthermore, gAfter that speech and the release of data by Dr. Hansen on Dec. 15 showing that 2005 was probably the warmest year in at least a century, officials at the headquarters of the space agency repeatedly phoned public affairs office rs, who relayed the warning to Dr. Hansen that there would be edire consequences f if such statements continued, those officers and Dr. Hansen said in interviews. h Earlier, in 2004, Dr. Hansen fell out of favor with the Bush Administration for publicly stating before the presidential elections that government scientists we re being muzzled and that he planned to vote for John Kerry. The New York Times also notes that this echoes other recent disputes, whereby gma ny scientists who routinely took calls from reporters five years ago can now do so only if the interview is approved by administration officials in Washington,

and then only if a public affairs officer is present or on the phone. h Furthermore, gWhere scientists f points of view on climate policy align with those of the administration, however, there are few signs of restrictions on extracurr icular lectures or writing. h And in terms of media manipulation, the Times also revealed that at least one in terview (amongst many others) was canceled because it was with NPR, which the pu blic affairs official responsible felt was gthe most liberal h media outlet in the country. This implies a political bias/propaganda in terms of how information is released to the public, which should be of serious concern. At the beginning of June, 2006, the BBC Panorama documentary followed up on this and found that many scientists felt they were being censored and that various r eports had been systematically suppressed, even altered. In one case, a major cl imate assessment report was due out a month before the 2004 presidential electio ns, but was delayed because it had such a bleak assessment, and the Bush adminis tration did not want it to be part of the election issues. It was released short ly after the elections were over. Panorama also interviewed a pollster who had advised the Bush Administration whe n they came into power in 2000 to question global warming, that humans caused it if it existed at all, to hire skeptical scientists, and play down its impacts. (The advisor has now distanced himself away from the Bush Administration fs stance today because he felt the science was more certain than it was in 2000.) Just weeks before hurricane Katrina devastated parts of Southern United States, Panorama reported that gAnother scientist from the National Oceanic and Atmospher ic Administration (NOAA) c had research which established global warming could in crease the intensity of hurricanes. He was due to give an interview about his wo rk but claims he was gagged. h After Katrina, the gNOAA website said unusual hurric ane activity is not related to global warming. h When a leading scientist was aske d why NOAA came out with such a statement, he suggested it was ideologically dri ven. (The BBC Panorama documentary is called Climate chaos: Bush fs climate of fear and as well as a summary, you can watch the actual documentary online.) Despite attempts to discredit global warming concerns, the Bush Administration h as now conceded that there is climate change and that humans are contributing to it, but Panorama reports that a lot of vital time has been lost, and that some scientists fear US policy may be too slow to carry out. Almost a year after the story about attempts to silence NASA fs top climate scient ist, many media outlets have reported on a new survey where hundreds of governme nt scientists say they have perceived or personally experienced pressure from th e Bush administration to eliminate phrases such as gclimate change h and gglobal war ming h from their reports and public statements. A US government hearing in the US is also pursuing this further as the seriousness of climate change is becoming more accepted. There has been a similar concern in Australia. At the beginning of 2006, the Aus tralian Broadcasting Company (ABC) revealed that some business lobby groups have influenced the Australian government to prevent Australia from reducing greenho use gas emissions. This lobby group included interests from the coal, electricit y, aluminum (aluminium), petroleum, minerals and cement industries. The document ary exposing this revealed possible corruption within government due to extremel y close ties with such industries and lobby groups, and alleged silencing of gov ernment climate scientists.

In what would seem to be a twist to suppression of government reports, it was wi dely claimed that the US Environmental Protection Agency had gsuppressed h a report that was skeptical of climate change. However, it turns out that while the repo rt was written by an employee on EPA time, but on his own initiative and not qua lified to do so, and so couldn ft be published by the EPA and therefore was not su ppressed. Furthermore, as the previous link finds, the report contained large pi eces of plagiarism. In addition, the report was flawed as RealClimte.org quickly showed. The headlines about this episode talked of gsuppression h and would likely increase the view amongst those still skeptical about climate change. Corrections to tho se headlines have been few, and less prominent, by comparison. Back to top Many Sources Of Greenhouse Gases Being Discovered Pollution from various industries, the burning of fossil fuels, methane from far m animals, forest destruction, rotting/dead vegetation etc have led to an increa sed number of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. And, as international trade in its current form continues to expand with little regard for the environment, th e transportation alone, of goods is thought to considerably contribute to global warming via emissions from planes, ships and other transportation vehicles. (Fo r more about trade and globalization in its current form and how it affects the environment, as well as other consequences, visit this web site fs section on Trad e, Economy, & Related Issues.) Photo: full cargo ship. Credit: YP/Flickr Even sulphur emitted from ships are thought to contribute a fair bit to climate change. (If you have registered at the journal, Nature, then you can see the rep ort here.) In fact, sulphur based gas, originating from industry, discovered in 2000 is thought to be the most potent greenhouse gas measured to date. It is cal led trifluoromethyl sulphur pentafluoride (SF5CF3). The Guardian adds that one giant container ship can emit almost the same amount of cancer and asthma-causing chemicals as 50 million cars. Furthermore, gConfidential data from maritime industry insiders based on engine s ize and the quality of fuel typically used by ships and cars shows that just 15 of the world's biggest ships may now emit as much pollution as all the world fs 76 0m cars. Low-grade ship bunker fuel (or fuel oil) has up to 2,000 times the sulp hur content of diesel fuel used in US and European automobiles. h (Shipping is responsible for 3.5% to 4% of all climate change emissions the Guar dian also notes.) NewScientist.com reports (December 22, 2003) on a study that suggests soot parti cles may be worse than carbon dioxide in contributing to global warming. The soo t particles also originate from industry, and during the industrial revolution, was quite common. While on the positive side there is less soot these days and p erhaps easier to control if needed, alone, as one of the scientists of the study commented, gIt does not change the need to slow down the growth rate of carbon d ioxide and eventually stabilize the atmospheric amount. h Photo: Peat Bog Western Siberia. Credit: ressaure/Flickr NewScientist.com and others have also reported (August 2005) that the world fs lar gest frozen peat bog is melting, and could unleash billions of tonnes of methane , a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. An area the size of France and G ermany combined has been melting in the last 4 years. In addition, gWestern Siber ia has warmed faster than almost anywhere else on the planet, with an increase i

n average temperatures of some 3

C in the last 40 years. h

A scientist explained a fear that if the bogs dry out as they warm, the methane will oxidise and escape into the air as carbon dioxide. But if the bogs remain w et, as is the case in western Siberia today, then the methane will be released s traight into the atmosphere. Methane is 20 times as potent a greenhouse gas as c arbon dioxide. Back to top Warming Happening More Quickly Than Predicted While those denying climate change are reducing in number and there appears to b e more effort to try and tackle the problem, climate scientists are now fearing that climate change is happening far faster and is having much larger impacts th an they ever imagined. The Arctic plays an incredibly important role in the balance of the earth fs clima te. Rapid changes to it can have knock-on effects to the rest of the planet. Som e have described the Arctic as the canary in the coal mine, referring to how can ary birds used to be taken deep down coal mines. If they died, it implied oxygen levels were low and signaled mine workers to get out. Satellite observations show the arctic sea ice decreasing, and projections for t he rest of the century predict even more shrinkage: Image: The decrease of Arctic sea ice, minimum extent in 1982 and 2007, and clim ate projections. UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2007 In terms of biodiversity, gthe prospect of ice-free summers in the Arctic Ocean i mplies the loss of an entire biome h, the Global Biodiversity Outlook report notes (p. 57). In addition, gWhole species assemblages are adapted to life on top of or under ic e ? from the algae that grow on the underside of multi-year ice, forming up to 2 5% of the Arctic Ocean fs primary production, to the invertebrates, birds, fish an d marine mammals further up the food chain. h The iconic polar bear at the top of that food chain is therefore not the only species at risk even though it may get more media attention. Note, the ice in the Arctic does thaw and refreeze each year, but it is that pat tern which has changed a lot in recent years as shown by this graph: The extent of floating sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, as measured at its annual mi nimum in September, showed a steady decline between 1980 and 2009. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, graph compiled by Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2010) Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, May 201 0 It is also important to note that loss of sea ice has implications on biodiversi ty beyond the Arctic, as the Global Biodiversity Outlook report also summarizes: Bright white ice reflects sunlight. When it is replaced by darker water, the ocean and the air heat much faster, a f eedback that accelerates ice melt and heating of surface air inland, with result ant loss of tundra. Less sea ice leads to changes in seawater temperature and salinity, leading to c hanges in primary productivity and species composition of plankton and fish, as well as large-scale changes in ocean circulation, affecting biodiversity well be yond the Arctic. ? Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2010), Global Biodivers ity Outlook 3, May, 2010, p.57

Some scientists fear changes are happening to the Arctic much faster than antici pated. The previous link mentions that despite computer climate models predictin g loss of Arctic sea ice by 2050 to 2080, some scientists fear it could be as so on as 2015. The BBC notes similar concerns by scientists, with one quoted as say ing the sea ice is gso thin that you would have to have an exceptional sequence o f cold winters and cold summers in order for it to rebuild. h Another BBC article reports scientists now have unambiguous evidence that the wa rming in the Arctic is accelerating. The Arctic reflects much sunlight back into space helping keep earth temperate. More melting will result in less reflection and even more heat being absorbed by the earth. A chain reaction could result, such as the Greenland ice sheet melti ng (which will actually increase sea levels, whereas the melting of Arctic ice w ill not because it is sea ice), possibly increasing the melting of permafrost in Siberia, which will release huge amounts of methane (as noted above), and rapid ly change climate patterns, circulation patterns and jet streams, far quicker th an what most of the environment could adapt to easily. Older members of the indigenous Inuit people describe how weather patterns have shifted and changed in recent years, while they also face challenges to their wa y of life in the form of increased commercial interest in the arctic region. Thi s combination of environmental and economic factors put indigenous populations w ays at a cross roads as this documentary from explore.org shows: Arctic: Change at the Top of the World, Explore.org, September 2007 Follow link for transcript and more information Back to top For decades, scientists and environmentalists have warned that the way we are us ing Earth fs resources is not sustainable. Alternative technologies have been call ed for repeatedly, seemingly upon deaf ears (or, cynically, upon those who don ft want to make substantial changes as it challenges their bottom line and takes aw ay from their current profits). In the past, some companies and industries have pushed back on environmental pro grams in order to increase profits or to survive in a tough business world. It has perhaps taken about a decade or so ? and a severe enough global financial crisis that has hit the heart of this way of thinking ? to change this mentalit y (in which time, more greenhouse gases have been emitted ? inefficiently). Is t hat too late or will it be okay? Economists talk of the price signal that is fundamental to capitalism; the abili ty for prices to indicate when a resource is becoming scarcer. At such a time, c apitalism and the markets will mobilize automatically to address this by looking for ways to bring down costs. As a result, resources are supposedly infinite. F or example, if energy costs go up, businesses will look for a way to minimize su ch costs for themselves, and it is in such a time that alternatives come about a nd/or existing resources last longer because they are used more efficiently. gRun ning out of resources h should therefore be averted. However, it has long been argued that prices don ft truly reflect the full cost of things, so either the signal is incorrect, or comes too late. The price signal also implies the poorest often pay the heaviest costs. For example, commercially over-fishing a region may mean fish from that area becomes harder to catch and more expensive, possibly allowing that ecosystem time to recover (though that is not guaranteed, either). However, while commercial entities can exploit resourc es elsewhere, local fishermen will go out of business and the poorer will likely go hungry (as also detailed on this site fs section on biodiversity). This then h

as an impact on various local social, political and economic issues. In addition to that, other related measurements, such as GNP are therefore flawe d, and even reward unproductive or inefficient behavior (e.g. gEfficiently h produc ing unhealthy food ? and the unhealthy consumer culture to go with it ? may prof it the food industry and a private health sector that has to deal with it, all o f which require more use of resources. More examples are discussed on this site fs section on consumption and consumerism). Our continued inefficient pumping of greenhouse gases into the environment witho ut factoring the enormous cost as the climate already begins to change is perhap s an example where price signals may come too late, or at a time when there is a lready significant impact to many people. Resources that could be available more indefinitely, become finite because of our inability or unwillingness to change . The subsequent pages on this site look at the political issues around tackling c limate change. Where Next? Related articles Climate Change And Global Warming Introduction Global Dimming UN Framework Convention On Climate Change Reactions To Climate Change Negotiations And Action Global Warming, Spin And Media Climate Justice And Equity Climate Change Flexibility Mechanisms Carbon Sinks, Forests And Climate Change Climate Change Affects Biodiversity Global Warming And Population See more related articles Share This Page With: Bookmark or share this with others using some popular social bookmarking web sit es: FacebookStumbleUponGoogledel.icio.usDiggReddit Link To This Page From Your Site/Blog Copy/paste the following HTML code to your page: c to produce this: Anup Shah, Climate Change and Global Warming Introduction, Global Issues, Update d: November 11, 2013 Alternatively, copy/paste the following MLA citation format for this page: Shah, Anup. gClimate Change and Global Warming Introduction. h Global Issues. 11 No v. 2013. Web. 17 Feb. 2014. <http://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climate-cha nge-and-global-warming-introduction>. Other Options Find This Page/Site Useful? Let a friend know Subscribe to the RSS web feed Follow this site on Facebook Follow this site on Twitter Other Options Printable Version

Get Free Email Updates Support this site Feedback Author And Page Information by Anup Shah Created: Monday, July 20, 1998 Last Updated: Monday, November 11, 2013 Back to top Navigation Share This Facebook StumbleUpon Google del.icio.us Digg Reddit Page-related navigation Page Options Printable Version Email Page to a Friend Related Issues Climate Change and Global Warming (30) Global Dimming UN Convention Reactions Global Warming Media Climate Justice More articles c Environmental Issues (48) Biodiversity Importance Loss of Biodiversity Conservation Climate & Biodiversity Coral Reefs More articles c Related Videos Sir Crispin Tickell: Clean, Green Growth in China C.S. Kiang: China fs Future Martin Khor: Historical Responsibility for Climate Change Emission Reduction Climate Change Impacts on Women in Bolivia Climate Change Impacts on Women in Bolivia - Longer Version Climate Change Impacts on Women in Vietnam Global temperature anomalies, 1880 - 2011 Gil Friend: Sustainability Amory Lovins: Natural Capitalism Anita Roddick: Corporate Social Responsibility? Hermann Scheer: Big Energy fs Last Stand Related News DRC Mega-Dam to Be Funded by Private Sector, Groups Charge Website Welcomes Wildlife Trafficking Whistleblowers Fossil Fuel Subsidies Dampen Shift Towards Renewables Site Navigation Advertisements Most Popular Pages Poverty Facts and Stats Global Financial Crisis Causes of Poverty Climate Change and Global Warming Environmental Issues

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