Population and Carrying Capacity

Model: Population and Carrying Capacity

Description: This is a simple model of a population dynamics in a habitat with limited carrying capacity. "The carrying capacity of any habitat is the number of organisms it can support and is determined by the resources available in the environment and the resource requirements of the population." [J.Sterman, Business dynamics] In this model, we assume the carrying capacity is constant. There is just one stock the Population. We assume a closed system without in- and outmigration, so Births is only inflow to the stock, and Deaths is the only outflow. The model is built in four phases, and each phase is saved as an active object. You can run any phase by choosing the appropriate Main (root) active object in the experiment properties. Phase 1: The environment resources are unlimited. The birth rate (the average number of new individuals produced by an individual per year) is constant and at its maximum level, and so is the average lifetime. Behavior: unlimited exponential growth. Phase 2: The carrying capacity is added. We assume the environment can only support 5000 individuals and when the population gets closer to that number, the lifetime reduces dramatically. Behavior: S-shaped curve. Phase 3: Crowding affects the birth rate in a similar way to how it affects the lifetime: the more crowded is the habitat, the less individuals are born. Behavior: S-shaped curve with equilibrium at the level of the carrying capacity. Phase 4: The resource shortage does not affect the births immediately, but with a certain time delay. Behavior: S-shaped curve with overshoot and oscillation. Name General Java Package Name File Name population_and_carrying_capacity C:\Program Files (x86)\AnyLogic 6 Professional\plugins\com.xj.anylogic.examples_6.9.0.20130315121 4\bookmodels\System dynamics\Population and Carrying Capacity\Population and Carrying Capacity.alp Minute Value

Model Time Model Time Units

Active Object Class: Phase1

Name Advanced Auto-create Datasets Recurrence Dataset Samples To Keep true 1 100 Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Parameter: MaxAverageLifetime
Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit true time TEXT_BOX double 70 Value

Parameter: MaxBirthRate
Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit true 1 / time TEXT_BOX double 0.04 Value

Parameter: InitialPopulation

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit

Value

double 2000

TEXT_BOX

true individual

Flow: Deaths
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population / MaxAverageLifetime darkGoldenRod true individual / time Value

Stock: Population
Name General Initial Value Use Units Unit InitialPopulation true individual Value

Flow: Births
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population * MaxBirthRate lightSkyBlue true individual / time Value

Flow: Births
Name General Formula Population * MaxBirthRate Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name Color Use Units Unit

Value lightSkyBlue true individual / time

Flow: Deaths
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population / MaxAverageLifetime darkGoldenRod true individual / time Value

Time Plot: plot

Name General Time Window Vertical Scale Analysis Auto Update Recurrence Dataset Samples To Keep Advanced x y Width Height Appearance Show Legend Legend Place Label Format true EAST MODEL_TIME_UNITS 0 320 650 140 100 AUTO true 1 100 Value

Plot Items:
Title Population Type value Dataset / Value Population Point Style NONE Color blue Line true Width 2 Interpolation LINEAR

Time Plot: plot1

Name General Time Window Vertical Scale Analysis Auto Update Recurrence Dataset Samples To Keep Advanced x y Width 0 450 650 100 AUTO true 1 100 Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name Height Appearance Show Legend Legend Place Label Format

Value 140

true EAST MODEL_TIME_UNITS

Plot Items:
Title Births Deaths Net Birth Rate Type value value value Dataset / Value Births Deaths Births - Deaths Point Style NONE NONE NONE Color cornflowerBlu e saddleBrown deepSkyBlue Line true true true Width 1 1 1 Interpolation LINEAR LINEAR LINEAR

Text: text
Name Advanced x y General Alignment Font Name Font Size Bold Font Style Text Advanced x y 20 10 LEFT SansSerif 16 true Phase 1. Unlimited exponential growth 20 10 Value

Active Object Class: Phase2

Name Advanced Auto-create Datasets Recurrence Dataset Samples To Keep true 1 100 Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Parameter: MaxAverageLifetime
Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit true time TEXT_BOX double 70 Value

Parameter: MaxBirthRate
Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit true 1 / time TEXT_BOX double 0.04 Value

Parameter: InitialPopulation

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit

Value

double 2000

TEXT_BOX

true individual

Parameter: CarryingCapacity
Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit true individual TEXT_BOX double 5000 Value

Table Function: EffectOfCrowdingOnLifetime

Name General Public Interpolation Out Of Range Behaviour Use Units false LINEAR EXTRAPOLATE true Value

Table Data:
Argument 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Value 1.0 1.0 0.98 0.95 0.9 0.82 0.7 0.5 0.33 0.17 0.07 0.01 0.01

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Auxiliary: AverageLifetime
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit MaxAverageLifetime * EffectOfCrowdingOnLifetime( Crowding ) darkGoldenRod true time Value

Flow: Deaths
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population / AverageLifetime darkGoldenRod true individual / time Value

Stock: Population
Name General Initial Value Use Units Unit InitialPopulation true individual Value

Flow: Births
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population * MaxBirthRate lightSkyBlue true individual / time Value

Auxiliary: Crowding
Name Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name General Formula Color

Value

Population / CarryingCapacity orangeRed

Flow: Births
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population * MaxBirthRate lightSkyBlue true individual / time Value

Flow: Deaths
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population / AverageLifetime darkGoldenRod true individual / time Value

Time Plot: plot

Name General Time Window Vertical Scale Analysis Auto Update Recurrence Dataset Samples To Keep Advanced x y Width Height Appearance Show Legend Legend Place Label Format true EAST MODEL_TIME_UNITS 0 320 650 140 100 AUTO true 1 100 Value

Plot Items:
Title Population Type value Dataset / Value Population Point Style NONE Color blue Line true Width 2 Interpolation LINEAR

Time Plot: plot1

Name General Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name Time Window Vertical Scale Analysis Auto Update Recurrence Dataset Samples To Keep Advanced x y Width Height Appearance Show Legend Legend Place Label Format

Value 100 AUTO true 1 100

0 450 650 140

true EAST MODEL_TIME_UNITS

Plot Items:
Title Births Deaths Net Birth Rate Type value value value Dataset / Value Births Deaths Births - Deaths Point Style NONE NONE NONE Color cornflowerBlu e saddleBrown deepSkyBlue Line true true true Width 1 1 1 Interpolation LINEAR LINEAR LINEAR

Text: text
Name Advanced x y General Alignment Font Name Font Size Bold Font Style Text Advanced x y 20 10 LEFT SansSerif 16 true Phase 2. S-shaped growth with equilibrium above the carrying capacity 20 10 Value

Active Object Class: Phase3

Name Advanced Auto-create Datasets Recurrence Dataset Samples To Keep true 1 100 Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Parameter: MaxAverageLifetime
Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit true time TEXT_BOX double 70 Value

Parameter: MaxBirthRate
Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit true 1 / time TEXT_BOX double 0.04 Value

Parameter: InitialPopulation

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit

Value

double 2000

TEXT_BOX

true individual

Parameter: CarryingCapacity
Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit true individual TEXT_BOX double 5000 Value

Table Function: EffectOfCrowdingOnLifetime

Name General Public Interpolation Out Of Range Behaviour Use Units false LINEAR EXTRAPOLATE true Value

Table Data:
Argument 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Value 1.0 1.0 0.98 0.95 0.9 0.82 0.7 0.5 0.33 0.17 0.07 0.01 0.01

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Auxiliary: AverageLifetime
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit MaxAverageLifetime * EffectOfCrowdingOnLifetime( Crowding ) darkGoldenRod true time Value

Flow: Deaths
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population / AverageLifetime darkGoldenRod true individual / time Value

Stock: Population
Name General Initial Value Use Units Unit InitialPopulation true individual Value

Flow: Births
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population * BirthRate lightSkyBlue true individual / time Value

Auxiliary: BirthRate
Name Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit

Value

MaxBirthRate * ( 1 - ( 1 / ( 1 + exp( -7 * ( Crowding - 1 ) ) ) ) ) cornflowerBlue true 1 / time

Auxiliary: Crowding
Name General Formula Color Use Units Population / CarryingCapacity orangeRed true Value

Flow: Births
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population * BirthRate lightSkyBlue true individual / time Value

Flow: Deaths
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population / AverageLifetime darkGoldenRod true individual / time Value

Time Plot: plot

Name General Time Window Vertical Scale Analysis Auto Update Recurrence Dataset Samples To Keep Advanced x y Width Height Appearance Show Legend Legend Place true EAST 0 320 650 140 100 AUTO true 1 100 Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name Label Format

Value MODEL_TIME_UNITS

Plot Items:
Title Population Type value Dataset / Value Population Point Style NONE Color blue Line true Width 2 Interpolation LINEAR

Time Plot: plot1

Name General Time Window Vertical Scale Analysis Auto Update Recurrence Dataset Samples To Keep Advanced x y Width Height Appearance Show Legend Legend Place Label Format true EAST MODEL_TIME_UNITS 0 450 650 140 100 AUTO true 1 100 Value

Plot Items:
Title Births Deaths Net Birth Rate Type value value value Dataset / Value Births Deaths Births - Deaths Point Style NONE NONE NONE Color cornflowerBlu e saddleBrown deepSkyBlue Line true true true Width 1 1 1 Interpolation LINEAR LINEAR LINEAR

Text: text
Name Advanced x y General Alignment Font Name Font Size Bold Font Style Text Advanced x y 20 10 LEFT SansSerif 16 true Phase 3. S-shaped growth with equilibrium at the carrying capacity 20 10 Value

Active Object Class: Phase4

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name Advanced Auto-create Datasets Recurrence Dataset Samples To Keep

Value

true 1 100

Parameter: MaxAverageLifetime
Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit true time TEXT_BOX double 70 Value

Parameter: MaxBirthRate
Name General Type Default Value Editor double 0.04 Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name Editor Control General Use Units Unit

Value TEXT_BOX

true 1 / time

Parameter: InitialPopulation
Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit true individual TEXT_BOX double 2000 Value

Parameter: CarryingCapacity
Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit true individual TEXT_BOX double 5000 Value

Parameter: MaturationDelay
Name General Type Default Value Editor Editor Control General Use Units Unit true time TEXT_BOX double 15 Value

Table Function: EffectOfCrowdingOnLifetime

Name General Public Interpolation Out Of Range Behaviour Use Units false LINEAR EXTRAPOLATE true Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Table Data:
Argument 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Value 1.0 1.0 0.98 0.95 0.9 0.82 0.7 0.5 0.33 0.17 0.07 0.01 0.01

Auxiliary: AverageLifetime
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit MaxAverageLifetime * EffectOfCrowdingOnLifetime( Crowding ) darkGoldenRod true time Value

Flow: Deaths
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population / AverageLifetime darkGoldenRod true individual / time Value

Stock: Population
Name Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name General Initial Value Use Units Unit

Value

InitialPopulation true individual

Flow: Births
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population * BirthRate lightSkyBlue true individual / time Value

Auxiliary: BirthRate
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit MaxBirthRate * delay( 1 - ( 1 / ( 1 + exp( -7 * ( Crowding - 1 ) ) ) ), MaturationDelay, 1 ) cornflowerBlue true 1 / time Value

Auxiliary: Crowding
Name General Formula Color Use Units Population / CarryingCapacity orangeRed true Value

Flow: Births
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population * BirthRate lightSkyBlue true individual / time Value

Flow: Deaths
Name General Formula Color Use Units Unit Population / AverageLifetime darkGoldenRod true individual / time Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Time Plot: plot

Name General Time Window Vertical Scale Analysis Auto Update Recurrence Dataset Samples To Keep Advanced x y Width Height Appearance Show Legend Legend Place Label Format true EAST MODEL_TIME_UNITS 0 320 650 140 100 AUTO true 1 100 Value

Plot Items:
Title Population Type value Dataset / Value Population Point Style NONE Color blue Line true Width 2 Interpolation LINEAR

Time Plot: plot1

Name General Time Window Vertical Scale Analysis Auto Update Recurrence Dataset Samples To Keep Advanced x y Width Height Appearance Show Legend Legend Place Label Format true EAST MODEL_TIME_UNITS 0 450 650 140 100 AUTO true 1 100 Value

Plot Items:
Title Births Deaths Net Birth Rate Type value value value Dataset / Value Births Deaths Births - Deaths Point Style NONE NONE NONE Color cornflowerBlu e saddleBrown deepSkyBlue Line true true true Width 1 1 1 Interpolation LINEAR LINEAR LINEAR

Text: text

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name Advanced x y General Alignment Font Name Font Size Bold Font Style Text Advanced x y

Value

20 10

LEFT SansSerif 16 true Phase 4. S-shaped growth with overshoot and oscillation

20 10

Simulation Experiment: Simulation

Description: This is a simple model of a population dynamics in a habitat with limited carrying capacity. "The carrying capacity of any habitat is the number of organisms it can support and is determined by the resources available in the environment and the resource requirements of the population." [J.Sterman, Business dynamics] In this model, we assume the carrying capacity is constant. There is just one stock the Population. We assume a closed system without in- and outmigration, so Births is only inflow to the stock, and Deaths is the only outflow. The model is built in four phases, and each phase is saved as an active object. You can run any phase by choosing the appropriate Main (root) active object in the experiment properties. Phase 1: The environment resources are unlimited. The birth rate (the average number of new individuals produced by an individual per year) is constant and at its maximum level, and so is the average lifetime. Behavior: unlimited exponential growth. Phase 2: The carrying capacity is added. We assume the environment can only support 5000 individuals and when the population gets closer to that number, the lifetime reduces dramatically. Behavior: S-shaped curve. Phase 3: Crowding affects the birth rate in a similar way to how it affects the lifetime: the more crowded is the habitat, the less individuals are born. Behavior: S-shaped curve with equilibrium at the level of the carrying capacity. Phase 4: The resource shortage does not affect the births immediately, but with a certain time delay. Behavior: S-shaped curve with overshoot and oscillation. Name General Active Object Class Random Number Generation Type Advanced Maximum Available Memory Differention Equations Method Mixed Equations Method Algebraic Equations Method Absolute Accuracy Time Accuracy Relative Accuracy Fixed Time Step Presentation Top Group Persistent Model Time Stop Option Initial Time Final Time Presentation Stop at specified time 0.0 100.0 64 EULER RK45_NEWTON MODIFIED_NEWTON 1.0E-5 1.0E-5 1.0E-5 0.0010 true Phase4 randomSeed Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name CPU Time Balance Execution Mode Window Title Real Time Of Simulation

Value ratio_1_2 virtualTime

Population and Carrying Capacity : Simulation false

Text: text2
Name General Color Advanced x y General Alignment Font Name Font Size Bold Font Style Text Advanced x y 50 100 LEFT Arial 28 true Population and Carrying Capacity 50 100 royalBlue Value

Text: text3

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name Advanced x y General Alignment Font Name Font Size Bold Font Style Text Advanced x y

Value

50 50

LEFT SansSerif 11 true "Simulation Modeling with AnyLogic: Agent Based, Discrete Event and System Dynamics Methods" 50 50

Image: image
Name General Images Original Size Advanced x y Width Height Persistent 50 500 302 59 false anylogic_logo.png true Value

Text: text5
Name Advanced x y General Alignment Font Name Font Size Text Advanced x y 50 30 LEFT SansSerif 11 Example from the book 50 30 Value

Text: text6
Name Advanced x y General Alignment LEFT 50 170 Value

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name Font Name Font Size Text

Value SansSerif 11 This is a simple model of a population dynamics in a habitat with limited carrying capacity. "The carrying capacity of any habitat is the number of organisms it can support and is determined by the resources available in the environment and the resource requirements of the population." [J.Sterman, Business dynamics] In this model, we assume the carrying capacity is constant. There is just one stock the Population. We assume a closed system without in- and outmigration, so Births is only inflow to the stock, and Deaths is the only outflow. The model is built in four phases, and each phase is saved as an active object. You can run any phase by choosing the appropriate Main (root) active object in the experiment properties. Phase 1: The environment resources are unlimited. The birth rate (the average number of new individuals produced by an individual per year) is constant and at its maximum level, and so is the average lifetime. Behavior: unlimited exponential growth. Phase 2: The carrying capacity is added. We assume the environment can only support 5000 individuals and when the population gets closer to that number, the lifetime reduces dramatically. Behavior: S-shaped curve. Phase 3: Crowding affects the birth rate in a similar way to how it affects the lifetime: the more crowded is the habitat, the less individuals are born. Behavior: S-shaped curve with equilibrium at the level of the carrying capacity. Phase 4: The resource shortage does not affect the births immediately, but with a certain time delay. Behavior: S-shaped curve with overshoot and oscillation.

Advanced x y 50 170

Button: button1
Name General Label Text Action Run the model if ( getState() == IDLE ) run(); getEngine().getPresentation().setPresentable( getEngine().getRoot() ); Dialog 11 50 450 120 30 Value

Advanced Font Name Font Size x y Width Height Dynamic

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Population and Carrying Capacity

Name Dynamic: Label

Value getState() == IDLE ? "Run the model" : "Switch to Main view"

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