3.

2-k Factorial Experiments

Purpose
After this section you will understand how to:
Describe the overall concepts of 2-k Factorials Create standard order designs Design and Analyze 2-k Factorials using Anova using Effects Plots Graphs and Residual Plots Use Center Points in your designs

Advantages of 2-k Factorials

Require relatively few runs per factor studied Can be the basis for more complex designs Good for early investigations - can look at a large number of factors with relatively few runs Lend themselves well to sequential studies Analysis is fairly easy
2k factorials refer to k factors, each with 2 levels. A 22 factorial is a 2x2 factorial. This design has two factors with two levels and can be done in 2x2 or 4 runs. Likewise a 23 factorial has includes 3 factors, each with two levels. This experiment can be done in 2x2x2 or 8 runs.

Standard Order of 2k Designs

The design matrix for 2k factorials are usually shown is standard order. The low level of a factor is designed with a - or -1 and the high level is designated with a + or 1. An example of a design matrix for a 22 Factorial would look like this:
Temp -1 1 -1 1 Conc -1 -1 1 1
Temp -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1
4

A 23 Factorial Looks like this:

Conc -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 Catalyst -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1

Exercise
Create a 24 Factorial Design Matrix What are the minimum number of runs needed?

Answer
2x2 Design
-1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 a b c d

2x2x2 Design
1

-1

2x2x2x2 Design

1 -1 1 -1 1

1 -1 -1 1 1

-1 1 1 1 1 6

1 1 1 1 1

Lets use Minitab to Generate the Matrix

Go to Stat>DOE>Factorial >Create Factorial Design - Define the number of Factors - Click on the Designs button

2.

1.

Design Matrix
3. Click on Full Factorial Option; Hit OK.

Design Matrix
4. Click on Factors Button

5. Name Factors; Define levels.

6. When you hit OK the Design matrix will be output into the Data Window.
9

Example of a 23 Factorial
This example relates two quantitative Input Variables (Temperature and Concentration) and one qualitative Input (Catalyst) to Yield. The factors and levels:

Temp: 160o C (-1), 180o C (1) Concentration (%): 20 (-1), 40 (1) Catalyst: Brand A (-1), Brand B (1)
The Design Matrix with results looks like:
Temp -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 Conc -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 Catalyst -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 Yield 60 72 54 68 52 83 45 80

This is an example of a Full Factorial Experiment with only one observation per Treatment Combination (Cell).
10

Calculating Effects
We will now calculate the effects of the experiment. First well look at Temperature. We simple add the yields associated with (-1) and the Yields associated with (1) and calculate the average (Sum/4).
Temp -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 Total Total + Sum Mean Eff -211 303 92 23 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 60 72 54 68 52 83 45 80 Conc Catalyst Yield

(72 + 68 + 83 + 80 ) (60 + 54 + 52 + 45) Temperatur e Effect = 4 4 = 75.72 - 52.75 = 23

This can be interpreted as the yield going up by an average of 23 points as temperature moves from Low to High
11

Concentration Effects
Now we calculate the Concentration Effect the same way
Temp -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -211 303 92 23 Total Total + Sum Mean Eff Conc -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -267 247 -20 -5 Catalyst -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 Yield 60 72 54 68 52 83 45 80

(54 + 68 + 45 + 80) (60 + 72 + 52 + 83) = 5 Concentrat ion Effect = 4 4

This indicates that, as the Concentration moves from 20% to 40%, the yield goes down by an average of 5 points
12

Catalyst Effect
Now you calculate the Effect for Catalyst and Interpret
Temp -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 Total Total + Sum Mean Eff -211 303 92 23 -267 247 -20 -5 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 60 72 54 68 52 83 45 80 Conc Catalyst Yield

(_ + _ + _ + _) (_ + _ + _ + _ ) Catalyst Effect = =_ 4 4
13

Catalyst Effect Calculation

Temp -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 Total Total + Sum Mean Eff -211 303 92 23 Conc -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -267 247 -20 -5 Catalyst -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 -254 260 6 1.5 Yield 60 72 54 68 52 83 45 80

By going from Catalyst A to Catalyst B, we improve our yield by 1.5 points.

14

Interactions
We have just calculated the Main Effects for this experiment. In other words, weve only investigated the singular Effects of Temperature, Concentration and Catalyst. We are also interested in the combined effects of these three. The question to be answered is, Is there a particular combination of Input settings that improve yields over and above the singular effects? We will back-up to the 2x2 factorial and learn how the interaction terms are represented statistically. Then we will come back to our example.

15

Interaction Effects
The Interaction Effect is represented by multiplying the columns to be represented. For the 2x2 example, the Temperature x Concentration interaction contrast is created by multiplying the Temperature Contrast by the Concentration Contrast. Main Effects Design
Temp -1 1 -1 1 Conc -1 -1 1 1

Interaction Effects Design

Temp -1 1 -1 1 Conc -1 -1 1 1 TxC 1 -1 -1 1

TxC = Temp * Conc

16

Interactions for the 3-way Design

To simplify, lets say we have Factors A, B and C. The interactions we can test will be A*B, A*C, B*C and A*B*C.
Temp(T) -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 Conc (C) -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 Cat (K) -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 T*C T*K C*K T*C*K Yield 60 72 54 68 52 83 45 80

Calculate the Interaction Contrasts for this design.

17

Interactions
Calculate the Interaction effects
Temp(T) -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 Conc(C) Cat(K) T*C 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 T*K 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 C*K 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 T*C*K -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 Yield 60 72 54 68 52 83 45 80

Total Total + Sum Mean Eff

-211 303 92 23

-267 247 -20 -5

Enter these Contrasts into Minitab and Correlate them.

18

Interactions
Listed below are the final effects:
Temp(T) -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 Total Total + Sum Mean Eff 1.5 1.5 10 0 0.5 -211 303 92 23 -267 247 -20 -5 Conc (C) -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 Cat (K) -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 T*C 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 T*K 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 C*K 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 T*C*K -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 Yield 60 72 54 68 52 83 45 80

Now the challenge is, which effects are important (significant). Lets now move to Minitab and work with the data. We will follow the same procedure as before, but well look at different ways to analyze the data. So, now enter the data into a Minitab file. You only need to enter the Main design matrix (not all the interaction columns) and yield.
19

Minitab Procedures
Stat>ANOVA>Oneway Stacked allows you to do multiple Comparisons Can do balanced or unbalanced Designs Stat>ANOVA>Oneway (Unstacked) Permits data from each group to be in a different column No multiple comparisons Stat>ANOVA>Balanced ANOVA Additive, full or any model specified, balanced design only Mixed models (Fixed and Random Factors) permitted Stat>ANOVA>GLM ANOA plus unbalanced or nested The most powerful ANOVA command - takes more computing time
20

Minitab Procedures Continued

Stat>DOE>Analyze Factorial Designs (or Analyze Custom Designs) Used for 2-k, 2-k with Centerpoints, 2-k with Blocking Used for 2-k Fractional Factorials Notation is different than ANOVA procedures

21

Now lets go through our example:

Heres the Data again
Temp -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 Conc Catalyst -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 Yield 60 72 54 68 52 83 45 80

22

Create the Data Matrix

Go to Stat>DOE>Create Factorial Design

1. 4. 2.

3.

Data Matrix

23

Design Matrix
StdOrder RunOrder Blocks Temp Conc 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 4 5 6 7 8 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 Cat -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1

24

Set up the Data Matrix

Add the response variable StdOrder RunOrder Blocks Temp Conc 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 1 1 1 1 80 7 1 -1 1 1 45 6 1 1 -1 1 83 5 1 -1 -1 1 52 4 1 1 1 -1 68 3 1 -1 1 -1 54 2 1 1 -1 -1 72 1 1 -1 -1 -1 60 Cat Yield

25

Set up the Data Matrix

Add the response variable

26

Analyze the Data

This experiment only has one observation per treatment combination. Therefore we cant analyze the full factorial using the Anova procedures we learned before. (Well, we really can, but we have to learn some tricks). In a situation where there is only one observation per treatment combination, we can use the normal probability plot technique to plot the effects we calculated before. If there is no effect at all (The null hypothesis is true for every Main Effect and Interaction) we would expect to see these effects be normally distributed around a mean of zero. Any outlying effect is considered important or significant. Choose Stat>Doe>Factorial>Analyze Factorial Design and complete the Dialog Box.

27

Analyzing a DOE
Go to Stat>Doe>Factorial>Analyze Factorial Designs 1. Enter Response 2.

4.

3.

28

Analyzing a DOE

5.

6.

7.

29

Analysis
Fractional Factorial Fit Estimated Effects and Coefficients for Yield Term Constant Temp Conc Catalyst Temp*Conc Temp*Catalyst Conc*Catalyst Temp*Conc*Catalyst 0.000 0.500 10.000 1.500 0.750 5.000 0.000 0.250 1.500 0.750 -5.000 -2.500 23.000 11.500 64.250 Effect Coef

These are the contrasts you previously calculated

Analysis of Variance for Yield Source Main Effects 2-Way Interactions 3-Way Interactions Residual Error Total DF 3 3 1 0 7 Seq SS 1112.50 204.50 0.50 0.00 1317.50 Adj SS 1112.50 204.50 0.50 0.00 Adj MS 370.833 68.167 0.500 0.000 30 F ** ** ** P

Notice there are no Ftests because there is only one score in each cell

Analysis

We see here that the Effects associated with A(Temp) and the A*C (Temperature * Catalyst) Interaction are important. So we will evaluate the highest order interaction and not worry about the Main Effect.

31

Pareto of Effects

This chart paretos the effects and uses a p>0.10 as a cutoff. You can see thatn the A and A*C interactions are identified
32

Looking at Interactions
1. Check Interaction Block Go to Stat>DOE>Factorial>Factorial Plots 3. Enter Response 4. Select Factors

4.

33

Interaction Plot
We can use the interaction plot for analyzing the Temperature by Catalyst Interaction.

34

Cube Plots
Lets look at a Cube plot for this experiment. Youll find the Cube Plot option in Stat>Doe>Factorial>Factorial Plots

35

Mathematical Model
We can use the Coefficients from the analysis to derive the following mathematical model: Yield = 64.250 + 11.500(Temp) -2.500(Conc) + 0.750(Cat) + 0.750(T*C) + 5.000(T*K) + 0.000(C*K) + 0.250(T*C*K) What is the model when everything is set to zero? What does that value represent? Estimate Yield when all coefficients are at (+1).

36

Reduced Model
We can use the same data to run a reduced model. We found that the Temp and Temp*Catalyst effects were important, so now we can use the Anova procedure to run only those terms. Choose Stat>Anova>General linear model. 'Yield' = Temp Catalyst Temp* Catalyst;
Analysis of Variance for Yield, using Adjusted SS for Tests

Source Temp Catalyst Temp*Catalyst Error Total 7 1317.50 4 55.00 55.00 13.75 1 200.00 200.00 200.00 14.55 0.019 1 4.50 4.50 4.50 0.33 0.598 1 1058.00 1058.00 1058.00 76.95 0.001

DF

Seq SS

Adj SS

Adj MS

S = 3.70810

R-Sq = 95.83%

R-Sq(adj) = 92.69%

37

Diagnostics

38

2k Factorial Steps
1. Create the data set in MINITAB such that all of the values for the response variable are in one column. Each input variable, or factor, is assigned to a column, which designates the various levels of that factor. 2. Run the DOE procedure specifying the design - If there is only one observation per experimental run, use the Effects Plot option. - Generally, with more than 3 factors, run the model showing only 3way and 2-way interactions. 3. (Optional at this point) Perform diagnostic run on residuals using the Residual Plot in the Doe section of Minitab 4. Interpret the T-test for the highest order interaction first, or, if using the Effects Plot, identify the outlying effects and analyze. - With designs using Center Points, inspect the F-test for Curvature. If this is large, then you may have a curvature effect to analyze.

39

2k Factorial Steps - Continued

5. Use the Interaction Plot feature of Minitab for the 2-way interactions. 6. If none of the interactions are significant, examine the main effects. Interpret these in the same manner as a one-way ANOVA. Use the Main Effects plot to investigate graphically. 7. Based on the above results, rerun the reduced model with only the significant effects and rerun and examine the residuals.
8. Calculate Epsilon-Squares for each significant effect to test for practical significance. - Do this only if the Mean Square Error (MSE) is greater than 0.7 - You will have to use the Anova procedure to get the Sum-of-Squares for each effect. 9. Formulate conclusions and recommendations 10. Plan the next experiment or 11. Replicate Optimum setup or institutionalize the change.
40

Create Data Set (File : Exercise\DOE 2K\Convers.mtw)

StdOrder RunOrder Blocks Cat-Charg 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 41 16 1 1 1 1 1 78 15 1 -1 1 1 1 85 14 1 1 -1 1 1 51 13 1 -1 -1 1 1 59 12 1 1 1 -1 1 83 11 1 -1 1 -1 1 89 10 1 1 -1 -1 1 50 9 1 -1 -1 -1 1 61 8 1 1 1 1 -1 80 7 1 -1 1 1 -1 87 6 1 1 -1 1 -1 61 5 1 -1 -1 1 -1 68 4 1 1 1 -1 -1 82 3 1 -1 1 -1 -1 90 2 1 1 -1 -1 -1 61 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 71 Temp Press Conc Convers

Effects Plot
Normal Probability Plot of the Effects
(response is Convers, Alpha = .10)
B BD

A: B: C: D:

Cat-Char Temp Press Conc

Normal Score
0

Pareto Chart of the Effects

(response is Convers, Alpha = .10)

-1
D A

B A D BD C BC AB

A: B: C: D:

Cat-Char Temp Press Conc

10

20

BCD ABC AC

Effect

ABD ABCD ACD CD AD

10

20

42

Dotplot of Effects
To create a dotplot of the effects, go to Stat>DOE>Analyze Factorial Desgn>Storage and check the Effects box. Go to Graph >Character Graphs>Dotplots and double-click on the column titled EFFE1.
MTB > DotPlot 'EFFE1'.

Character Dotplot

BD B

: . -----+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-EFFE1 -6.0 0.0 6.0 12.0 18.0 24 . . .:::. . .

43

Which Graphs?
Set up simple tables listing main effects, 2-way interactions, 3-way interactions, etc.

Main Effects

2-Way Interactions

Cross out the Main Effects that are involved with higher order interactions.
44

Which Graphs?
Set up simple tables listing main effects, 2-way interactions, 3-way interactions, etc.

Main Effects
A B D

2-Way Interactions
BD

We will draw the BD interaction plot and the A main effects plot.
45

Interpret Large Effects

(Highest Order Interactions First)
We see the Temperature x Concentration interaction is important (BD), so we go to Stats>DOE>Factorial Plots and create the interaction graph:
Interaction Plot - Means for Convert
Temp 85 -1 1 -1 1

75

Mean
65 55 -1 1

Conc

46

Investigate Appropriate Graphs

Main Effects Plots are very handy for investigating all main effects very quickly. Notice the large Temp effect. Temperature was involved in an important interaction and the interaction plot demonstrated a similar result. The effect for Catalyst Concentration was also important and you can inspect that graph below.
Main Effects Plot - Means for Convert

84 78 Convert 72 66 60

Cat-Chrg

Temp

Pressure

Conc

47

Epsilon Squared
Go to Stat>Anova>Balanced Anova and run the following model: 'Convert' = 'Cat-Chrg' Temp Conc Temp* Conc in the Dialog Box. Set up columns C8, C9 and C10 as Source, SS and E-Square. 1. Copy Source Effects from Session 2. Copy SS column from session window 3. Use the following Let statement: MTB > let c10=c9/2801

48

Epsilon Squared
Source Cat-Chrg Temp Conc Temp*Conc Error Total 2801 1.00000 39 0.01392 81 0.02892 121 0.04320 2304 0.82256 256 0.09140 SS E-Square

We see that Temp is by far the strongest factor in this experiment.

49

Residual Analysis for the Reduced Model

Residual Model Diagnostics
Normal Plot of Residuals
3 2 5

I Chart of Residuals
UCL=4.699

Residual

1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2

Residual

X =0.000

-5 0 5 1 0 1 5

LCL=-4.699

Normal Score

Observation Number

Histogram of Residuals
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 3 2

Residuals vs. Fits

Frequency

Residual
-3 -1 1 3

1 0 -1 -2 -3 50 60 70 80 90

Residual

Fit

We see the residuals are well behaved.

50

Formulate Conclusions
For the best conversion the process should be run at the highest temperature and the lowest catalyst charge. Concentration is not important as long as the temperature is at the high level. (The process is robust to concentration at high temperatures) Pressure is not important to conversion (at least not across the levels used in the experiment).

51

Multi-Factor Experiment

On Lo Off In Out Hi Front Back Left Right

Up

Down

2 2
5 factors : 25 = 32 combinations 6 factors : 26 = 64 combinations 7 factors : 27 = 128 combinations
52

2
What happen if we dont have enough resources

Why do Fractional Factorial Experiments?

As the number of factors increases, so do the number of runs. 2x2 Factorial = 4 runs 2x2x2 Factorial = 8 runs 2x2x2x2 Factorial = 16 runs ets. If the experimenter can assume higher order interactions are neglible, it is possible to do a fraction of the full factorial and still get good estimates of low-order interactions. Major use of Fractional Factorials is screening: A relatively large number of Factors in a relatively small number of runs. Screening experiments usually done in the early stages of a process improvement project.

53

Factorial Experiments
Successful factorials are based on: The Sparsity of Effects Principle Systems are usually driven by Main Effects and Loworder interactions The Projective Property Fractional Factorials can represent full-factorials once some effects demonstrate weakness Sequential Experimentation Fractional Factorials can be combined into more powerful designs Half-Fractions can be folded over into a full factorial By eliminating uninteresting Input Variables, fractions can become full factorials.
54

Half-Fraction
Recall that this is the expanded representation of a 2x2x2 Factorial. Suppose we wanted to investigate four Input Variables. Since all the contrasts are independent (orthogonal) we can select any interaction as the contrast to represent the fourth variable. Usually we select the highest order interaction, in this case the AxBxC Interaction.
Factor D
A -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 B -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 C -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 AXB 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 AXC 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 BXC 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 AXBXC -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1

In this case, when we replace the AxBxC Interaction with Factor D, we say the ABC was aliased with D. Obviously, ABC can no longer be estimated.
55

Half Fraction
The new design matrix looks like this:
A -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 B -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 C -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 D -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1

This is a Half-fraction of a 24 design. Instead of 16 runs, we only need 8 runs. This is a Resolution IV design.

56

Half Fraction
We would call this a half-fraction since a full 2x2x2x2 Factorial would take 16 runs to complete. Here we can estimate 4 factors in 8 runs. But there is a cost: We loss the higher order interaction. When assessing what we have to lose, we use the concept of Resolution. Resolution III Designs: No main effects are aliased with other Main Effects. Main Effects aliased with two-factor interactions Resolution IV Designs No Main Effect aliased with other Main Effects or with two-factor interactions. Two-factor interactions aliased with other two-factor interations. Resolution V Designs Main Effects okay, Two-factor interactions aliased with 3-factor interations
57

Notation
The general notation to designate a fractional factorial design is:

p 2k R

k is the number of factors to be investigated 2k-p is the number of runs R is the resolution Example: The designation below means four factors will be investigated in 2 3 = 8 runs. This design is a resolutions IV.

1 24 IV

1 5 2 = 2 12 5 = 2 52 1 = 2 51 2
58

Fractional Factorials and Minitab

Lets take a look at the Minitab Dialog Boxes for the Stat>DOE>Create Factorial Design>Display Available Designs procedure:

59

Designing a Fractional Factorial

Suppose you want to see some design options for an experiment with 5 factors and you cant afford a full factorial. Go to Stat>DOE>Create Factorial Design

2. 1.

60

Design Options

This table shows three options: Two fractional designs and the full factorial design
61

Exercise (File : Exercise\DOE 2K\%REACT (fractional factorial).mtw)

Objective: To design and analyze a fractional factorial experiment using Minitab Output Variable: % Reacted Inputs: Feed Rate (liters/minute) 10, 15 Catalyst (%) 1,2 Agitation Rate (rpm) 100, 120 Temperature (C) 140,180 Concentration (%) 3, 6 Use Minitab to setup the Design Matrix You only have funds to do 16 runs Step 1: Name the columns for the Factors Step 2: Go to DOE>Create Factorial Design
62

Exercise

63

Design Matrix
StdOrder RunOrder Blocks Feedrate Catalyst Agitation Temp Concentrt 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 3 13 8 11 10 2 4 16 14 12 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 1 1 15 1 15 10 15 10 15 10 15 10 15 10 15 10 15 9 1 10 7 1 15 6 1 10 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 100 100 100 100 120 120 120 120 100 100 100 100 120 120 120 120 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 6 3 3 6 3 6 6 3 3 6 6 3 6 3 3 6

64

Interaction Plots
Interaction Plot - Means for Reacted
Interaction Plot - Means for Reacted
Catalyst
Temp 80 1 40 1 80 1 40 1 80

85

1 2 1 2

Mean

75

65
60

55 1 40 1 80
3 6

Mean

70

Temp

Conc

65

Run the Reduced Model

Since the only Factors (Inputs) that are important are Catalyst, Temperature and Concentration, we can rerun the design without using Feed Rate and Agitation Rate. We now have a Full 3-factor design with two replications. Run this model either using Anova or DOE MTB > Name c11 = 'RESI1' c12 = 'FITS1' MTB > ANOVA 'Reacted' = c2 c4 c5 c2*c4 c4*c5; SUBC> Residuals 'RESI1'; SUBC> Fits 'FITS1'.

66

Anova Results
Analysis of Variance for Reacted

Source Catalyst Temp Conc Catalyst*Temp Temp*Conc Error Total 15 3331.00 10 70.25 7.03 1 361.00 361.00 51.39 0.000 1 462.25 462.25 65.80 0.000 1 156.25 156.25 22.24 0.000 1 600.25 600.25 85.44 0.000 1 1681.00 1681.00 239.29 0.000

DF

SS

MS

67

Diagnostics
Diagnostics for Reduced Model
Normal Plot of Residuals
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 1 2 10
UCL=7.225

I Chart of Residuals

Residual

Residual

X=0.000

LCL=-7.225

-10 0 5 10 15

Normal Score

Observation Number

Histogram of Residuals
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4

Residuals vs. Fits

Frequency

-4

-2

Residual

45

55

65

75

85

95

Residual

Fit

68

Other Fractional Factorial Design Considerations

Fractional Factorials can be blocked and use center points, just as in full factorials Fractional Factorials can be folded over to add to the design. Example: A half-fraction folded over can become a full factorial with two blocks. Folding over is just change the signs of the original fraction and rerunning the experiment. Using sequential assembly of fractions, effects can be isolated from other confounded effects. Reduced fractions can become full factorials with replication.

69

General Advice
Make sure you have tied potential business results to your project. The best time to design an experiment is after the previous one is finished. Dont try to answer all the questions in one study. Rely on a sequence of studies. Use two-level designs early Spend less than 25% of budget on the first experiment Always verify results in a follow-on study Be ready for changes A final report is a must!!

70

What happen if .
Y Y True TrueEffect Effect

Experimental ExperimentalEffect Effect

Lo (-) Factor Settings

Hi (+)

71

Adding Center Points

There is always a risk in 2-level designs of missing a curvilinear relationship by only including two levels of the Input Variable. The addition of Center points is an efficient way to test for curvature without adding a large number of experimental runs. Lets look at the following example. A chemical engineer wants to improve yield. There are two inputs of interest: Reaction Time and Reaction Temperature. The engineer decides to conduct the experiment using a 2x2 design (Reaction Time x Reaction Temp), but will add five center points to estimate experimental error and curvature. Inputs: Reaction Temp: 150, 155 and 160 Reaction Time: 30, 35 and 40.
72

Design Matrix
We can use Minitab to design our study. Choose Stat>DOE>Create Factorial Design>Design

73

Design Matrix
StdOrder RunOrder Blocks Temp 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 4 5 6 7 8 9 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 150 160 150 160 155 155 155 155 155 Time 30 30 40 40 35 35 35 35 35

Center Points
74

Center Points
The experiment is carried out and the following data result:
RunOrder Blocks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 155 35 40.6 1 155 35 40.2 1 155 35 40.7 1 155 35 40.5 1 155 35 40.3 1 160 40 41.5 1 150 40 40.9 1 160 30 40.0 1 150 30 39.3 Temp Time Yield

Choose Stat>Doe>Fit Factorial Model

75

Analysis
File : Exercise\DOE 2K\ReactionA.mtw
Estimated Effects and Coefficients for Yield Term Constant Temp Time Temp*Time
Analysis of Variance for Yield

Effect 40.4444 0.6500 1.5500 -0.0500 -0.0250 0.09347 0.7750 0.09347 0.3250 0.09347 0.06231

Coef

Std Coef

t-value

649.07 0.000 3.48 0.018 8.29 0.000 -0.27 0.800

Source Main Effects 2-Way Interactions Residual Error Curvature Pure Error Total 1 4 8 5 1 2 2.82500 0.00250 0.17472 0.00272 0.17200 3.00223

DF

Seq SS

Adj SS 2.82500 0.00250 0.17472 0.00272 0.17200

Adj MS

P 1.41250 40.42 0.001 0.00250 0.07 0.800 0.03494 0.00272 0.06 0.814 0.04300

Not Important

SS Curvature =

n f nc ( y f yc ) n f + nc

76

Cube Plot
Centerpoint Factorial Point 40.9 41.5

Cube Plot - Means for Yield

40

Time

40.46

30 150 Temp 160

39.3

40.0

77

Main Effects Plots

Main Effects Plot - Means for Yield

41 .2 40.8 Yield 40.4 40.0 39.6

Temp

Time

Center Points
78

Center Point Revisited

Rerun the same experiment BUT ADD CENTER POINTS Yield2 is exactly the same as Yield only Ive added 2 points to the Center Point values.
Analysis of Variance for Yield2 F Source 0.75 0.518 0.00 0.972 Main Effects 2-Way Interactions 1 Residual Error 214.02 0.000 Curvature Pure Error Total 8 12.2022 4 0.1720 1 9.2027 5 9.3747 0.0025 2 2.8250 DF Seq SS P

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Main Effects Plot

Orignal Center Points

41 .2 40.8 Yield 40.4 40.0 39.6

Time

Temp

Revised Center Point

42.4 41 .8 Yield2 41 .2 40.6 40.0

Time

Temp

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The Use of a Design Center Point

A A A + + o o o B B + + o o o B

Center Point Runs

Inclusion of one or more center points in a 2 level factorial design allows the estimation of curvature. Use of a center point allows the interior space to be investigated. The center point may be replicated without destroying the balance of the design. The number of center points will not affect the estimation of main effects or interactions. The number of center points will not affect the precision of effect estimates. 81

(1) a b ab * * *

Real Data Exercise

Objective: The investigate the effects of Concentration, Ratio B/A and Temperature on Yield. Output: Yield (%) Inputs: Concentration (Low, Med, High) Ratio B/A (Low, Med, High) Temperature (Low, Med, High) Design: 2x2x2 Factorial with 3 Center Points Procedure: Use Minitab File Analyze the data for Curvature, Interactions and Main Effects Graphically Analyze appropriate Effects Run Diagnostics Calculate Epsilon-Sq Be prepared to state your results and conclusions.

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Effects Plot
Normal Probability Plot of the Standardized Effects
(response is Yield, Alpha = .10)

1.5
A: ConcenA B: RatioB/A C: Temp

1.0

Normal Score
0.5 0.0 -0.5
(response is Yield, Alpha = .10) A: ConcenA B: RatioB/A C: Temp

Pareto Chart of the Standardized Effects

-1.0
A AB AC

-1.5 -6 -4 -2
C B BC ABC

Standardized Effect

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Test for Curvature

Analysis of Variance for Yield

Source Main Effects 2-Way Interactions 3-Way Interactions Residual Error Curvature Pure Error Total 1 3 1 2 10 3 3

DF

Seq SS 26.6050 3.0100 0.4050 1.8364 0.0297 1.8067 31.8564

Adj SS 26.6050 3.0100 0.4050 1.8364 0.0297 1.8067

Adj MS

P 8.86833 14.49 0.027 1.00333 0.40500 0.61212 0.02970 0.90333 0.03 0.873 1.64 0.347 0.66 0.476

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Main Effects Plot

Main Effects Plot - Means for Yield

89.2 88.4 87.6 86.8 86.0

Yield

ConcenA

RatioB/A

Temp

Conclusions?

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Basic Steps For Analyzing DOE using Minitab

1) Create DOE in Minitab (Stat>DOE>Factorial>Create Factorial Design) or Define data worksheet into DOE format (Stat>DOE>Factorial>Define Custom Factorial Design)

2) Analyze DOE (Stat>DOE>Factorial>Analyze Factorial Design) Graph>Effect Plot>Normal, Pareto>Alpha = 0.1 (For Screening DOE) Alpha = 0.05 (For Non Screening) Storage > Fits , Residuals

3) Check the Residual Plot of the DOE for your confident level your analysis (Stat>Regression>Residuals Plots)
86

Basic Steps For Analyzing DOE using Minitab (Cont)

4) Look up for the inferential factors & their effects From Session Window (P-value <= Alpha means significant) Effect Plot (Normal) : Labeled with alphabets are significant (Pareto) : Bars cross the right side of the red line are significant Study Factorial Plots Main Effects Plot (Stat>DOE>Factorial>Factorial Plots>Main Effects Plot) or (Stat>Anova>Main Effects Plot) Interaction Plot (Stat>DOE>Factorial>Factorial Plots> Interaction Plot) or (Stat>Anova>Interactions Plot)
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Basic Steps For Analyzing DOE using Minitab (Cont)

5) Reduce the model with only the significant effect, run Anova (Stat>Anova>General Linear Model)

6) Check the Epsilon-Squares for practical significance (Priority setting) Sum-of-Squares for each effect Total Sum-of-Squares

7) Summarize your finding and plan for the next action.

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General Advice
Make sure you have tied potential business results to your project. The best time to design an experiment is after the previous one is finished. Dont try to answer all the questions in one study. Rely on a sequence of studies. Use two-level designs early Spend less than 25% of budget on the first experiment

Always verify results in a follow-on study Be ready for changes A final report is a must!!
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