Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
***NEG
***Solvency***
Mexico would say no- laundry list of other priorities the government is focused on
Seelke, Specialist in Latina American Affairs, 1-16-13, (Clare R., Congressional Research Service, Mexicos New
Administration: Priorities and Key Issues in U.S.-Mexican Relations, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42917.pdf,p.6, accessed 7/12/13, LLM) Upon his inauguration, President Pea Nieto announced a reform agenda with specific proposals under five broad pillars: reducing violence; combating poverty; boosting economic growth; reforming education; and fostering social responsibility. Somewhat surprisingly, leaders from the conservative PAN and leftist PRD signed on to President Pea Nietos Pact for Mexico containing legislative proposals for advancing that reform agen da. While some opposition legislators have since balked at their leaders decisions to endorse the PRI-led pact, the Congress already approved an education reform bill, one of the 13 measures based on the pact that Pea Nieto had identified as short-term priorities.13 Analysts predict that despite the constraints discussed below (see: Constraints Facing the New Administration), the prospects for implementing Pea Nietos agenda are good because the PAN and the PRI in particular agree on many o f the structural reforms that need to be enacted.14
Thanks to hydraulic fracturing, the United States is in the middle of a natural gas boom. Production from shale formations is increasing around the country, and a recent report from the Energy Information Agency showed the nation has the largest recoverable reserve of shale gas in the world at 1,161 trillion cubic feet. While this increased supply is undoubtedly directly boosting the U.S. economy, studies show it is also benefiting Mexico to quite a large extent. According to OilPrice.com, Mexican imports of U.S. natural gas have grown 92 percent since 2008. Plus, the United States' export capacity is expected to increase to over 7 billion cubic feet per day, so Mexico's share of the nation's production could become even greater. In order to transport enough gas to meet demand, companies are already planning new pipelines between the United States and Mexico. For example, Pemex, the latter's state-owned oil company, is spending $3.3 billion on a new 750-mile pipeline from Los Ramones, Mexico, to Agua Dulce, Texas, Quartz reported. The boom gives Mexico a competitive edge Mexico's access to so much inexpensive natural gas is already giving the country quite a competitive edge over other emerging economies. Last year, manufacturing labor costs in China surpassed Mexico's because of the Asian country's high wage inflation rates, The Financial Times reported. Moreover, China's energy costs are much higher than Mexico's, and the proximity of the latter to the United States further reduces expenses. A recent study by global management consulting firm Boston Consulting Group (BCG) determined the average total manufacturing costs in Mexico could be as much as 6 percent less than in China by 2015. In this way, Mexico is poised to have an extremely competitive, successful manufacturing industry in the near future. Reports also show it's possible the current energy situation could increase Mexico's manufacturing exports enough to bring the country $20 to $60 billion in output a year by 2017. Fortunately, such improvements can also be hugely beneficial to the United States. "Mexico is in a strong position to be a significant winner from shifts in the global economy," said Harold Sirkin, a senior partner at BCG . "That is good news not only for Mexico, which relies on exports for around one-third of its GDP. It's also good for America, since products made in Mexico contain four times as many U.S.-made parts, on average, as those made in China."
economy is rebounding. After barely 2% average annual growth between 2000 and 2010, the countrys GDP expanded almost 4% in 2011 and 2012. Investment is booming and the middle class is enlarging. Mexicos manufacturing exports lead Latin America, and its trade as a share of GDP tops Chinas. Its No. 53 spot on the World Banks easeof-doing-business rankings far outshines the No. 126 grade of its main regional rival, Brazil; it has signed more free trade agreements (44) than any other country, and its enrolling more engineering students than any south of the Rio Grande. As I noted a year ago, its a trend well worth
applauding.
Mexicos economy is the strongest among developing nations-Manufacturing costs, reforms, and energy costs
Monnin, Journalist, 6-25, (Abbey Monnin, Mexico: A Growth Story in the Global Economy 6-25-2013.
<http://beta.fool.com/monnn/2013/06/25/mexico-a-growth-story-in-the-global-economy/38504/> Accessed: 7-9-2013, BK)
Macro-Economic Context With Europe in a slow-motion train wreck that shows little signs of redirection, and the marked slowdown in China, the US seems likely to be the least ugly of the big babies in the global economy for the near term future. Concerns remain over the USs budget deficits, persistently high unemployment rate, political gridlock, and the Federal Reserves impending exit from its position of easy monetary policy since the financial crisis. Nevertheless, there are few signs that the US dollar will be replaced as the worlds reserve currency anytime soon, and comparatively speaking, the US seems likely to remain a primary driver of global growth among the major industrialized countries. Mexico, more than any other economy, stands to ride this macro-economic tide along with it. A Mexican Growth Story Mexico shows signs of being the next great growth story in Latin America. Although its economy hit a rough patch at the turn of 2013, it still has the lowest unemployment rate of the large Latin American countries at 5.1%, and consensus forecasts predict 3% GDP growth in 2013, as published in The Economist on June 22nd, 2013. There are good reasons to be optimistic about Mexico when viewed through the lens of the US economy. Among other dynamics, Mexico is poised to contribute to and benefit from the manufacturing resurgence in the US. Increased labor and energy costs in China are a major driver behind this dynamic. According to data from the Boston Consulting Group, as published on June 11, 2013 in The Wall St. Journal article A Change in the Cost Equation, manufacturing costs in Mexico remain at the same 11% discount to the US as a decade ago. By comparison, Chinas discount to the US has become only 7%, from 18% in 2003. There are also reduced transportation costs of US firms relocating more of their supply chains to Mexico, and added benefits from better real-time supply chain capabilities. The likelihood of real immigration reform in the US could also contribute greatly to increased integration and cooperation between the two economies. Internally in Mexico, signs of reform have been emerging. The election of Enrique Pea Nieto in 2012 appeared to represent a consolidation of the status quo, with the return to power of his PRI party, which has held the reigns for most of the past century. However, Pea Nieto and the PRI have been enacting some reforms that show promise of improving competition in the economy and shaking up institutionalized power structures. In February, the arrest for embezzlement of Elba Esther Gordillo, the president of Mexico's influential national teachers' union, shocked many in the country who believed she was untouchable, along with the powerful union. Earlier in June, Pea Nieto signed into law a broad reform of the telecommunications industries that should have the effect of increasing competition and restricting the leverage wielded by monopolists like Carlos Slim and the companies he controls, like Amrica Mvil SAB (NYSE: AMX) which controls 70% of b oth Mexicos wireless subscriber base and its fixed phone lines. Grupo Televisa SAB (NYSE: TV) itself controls 70% of the broadcast television market. A recent government survey indicated that only 26% of Mexican homes had internet access. Reforms such as these to bring its population of 112 million online and otherwise empower their increased productivity are long overdue and very welcome signs for economic growth. The reforms should help stimulate broad based growth, including for the nearly 50% of Mexicans still living below the poverty line. Enabling this population to emerge into the middle class could drive the Mexican economy for years to come. Pea Nietos administration is also pushing Congress for an end to PEMEXs 75-year monopoly this year, which would reinvigorate investment in energy industries and open up space for domestic and foreign firms to come in and innovate, and create well paying jobs. The glaring risk of dealing with the drug trafficking cartels who operate throughout the country and along the border remains a major risk however, and could continue to hold back increased economic integration with the US. Pea Nietos administration has made a marked shift
Gonzaga Debate Institute 9 Mexico Renewables Neg away from the militarized approach to the cartels used by his predecessor, Felipe Caldern, and time will tell if it is more effective.
In May of 2013, Mexican unemployment rate declined to 4.93 percent, from 5.04 percent in the previous month. Compared with the same month last year, the jobless rate went up by 0.1 percentage point. The unemployment rate for men
dropped in May to 4.93 percent, from 5.17 percent in April. In contrast, the jobless rate for women increased to 4.93 percent from 4.83 percent in the previous month. Urban unemployment, based on the countrys 32 largest cities, decreased to 5.54 percent in May, from 6.42 percent in April. Compared with May of 2012, urban unemployment also declined by 0.5 percentage point. On a seasonally adjusted basis,
the jobless rate decreased to 5.07 percent in May, from 5.14 percent in April.
Mexicos manufacturing is expected to skyrocket past China by 2015 therefore growing the economy and subsequently massively boosting the US economy
BCG 6-28, (Boston Consulting Group: a global management consulting firm and the world's leading advisor on business strategy. Mexicos
Growing Cost Advantage over China, Other Economies Will Boost Its Exportsand U.S. Manufacturers June 28th 2013, <http://www.bcg.com/media/PressReleaseDetails.aspx?id=tcm:12-139022> Accessed: 7-9-2013, BK)
CHICAGO, June 28, 2013Within
five years, higher manufacturing exports due to a widening cost advantage over China and other major economies could add $20 billion to $60 billion in output to Mexicos economy annually. And thanks to the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), U.S. manufacturers of components for everything from automobiles to computers assembled in Mexico also stand to benefit, according to new research by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The key drivers of Mexicos improving competitive edge are relatively low labor costs and shorter supply chains due to the country's proximity to markets in the U.S. Another important advantage is that Mexico has 44 free-trade agreementsmore than any other nationallowing many of its exports to enter major economies with few or no duties. A tipping point was reached in 2012, when average manufacturing costs in Mexico , adjusted for productivity, dropped below those of China. By 2015, BCG projects, average total manufacturing costs in Mexico are likely to be around 6 percent lower than in China and around 20 to 30 percent lower than in Japan, Germany, Italy, and Belgium. Mexico is in a strong position to be a significant winner from shifts in the global economy, said Harold L. Sirkin, a BCG senior partner. That is good news not only for Mexico, which relies on exports for around one third of its GDP. Its also good for America, since products made in Mexico contain four times as many U.S. -made parts, on average, as those made in China. The research is part of BCGs ongoing Made in America, Again series on the changing global economics of manufacturing, produced by its Operations and Global Advantage practices. BCG has previously released research predicting that rising U.S. exports, combined wit h production reshored from China, could create up to 5 million new U.S. jobs in manufacturing and related services by the end of the decade, thanks largely to significant labor- and energy-cost advantages over Western Europe and Japan and rising costs in China. Global companies are expected to continue moving production to Mexico despite concerns over crime and safety. Research by the World Economic
Forum has found that companies view violence and corruption as the most problematic factors of having operations in Mexicoas well as significant costs of doing business. Another drawback is the perception that Mexico lacks enough skilled workers. But the
cost advantages of producing in Mexico are becoming so attractive that many companies are finding ways to mitigate these perceived risks. When the economics are a wash, U.S. manufacturers often keep production in the U.S., said Michael Zinser, a BCG partner who leads the firms manufacturing work in North America. But when the economics are compelling, companies will invest in additional security and training to address these issues. Mexicos labor costs are especially competitive when productivity differences with other economies are factored in. By 2015, for example, average manufacturing-labor costs in Mexico are projected to be 19 percent lower than in China, where wages are rising rapidly, and around 30 percent lower when adjusted for output per worker. In 2000, Mexican labor was 58 percent more expensive than in China. Mexico will also have lower energy costs than many other economies. Average electricity costs are around 4 percent lower in
Mexico than in China, for example, while the average price of industrial natural gas is 63 percent lower.
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Faulty credit, informality, elite control, ineffective education, vulnerability to shocks are Alt Causes to Mexicos Econ Hanson, Pacific Economic Cooperation Chair in International Economic Relations at UC San Diego, 2012 [Hanson, August 2012, Regional Migration Study Group, Understanding Mexico's Economic
Underperformance, http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/rmsg-mexicounderperformance.pdf, 7/10/13, AR] discussion of growth and development in Mexico ends up resembling a Diego Rivera mural, overstuffed with historical characters that collide in The faulty provision of credit, persistence of informality, control of key input markets by elites, continued ineffectiveness of public education, and vulnerability to adverse external shocks each may have a role in explaining Mexicos development trajectory over the past three decades. Still, the relative importance of these factors for the countrys growth record is unknown.
Any repeated and unexpected ways. In effect, Mexicos underperformance is overdetermined.
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autocracy. Under the pri, the purpose of government policy was to assert power rather than govern by law. The opacity of court proceedings, the notorious graft of the police forces, and the menacing presence of special law enforcement agencies were essential elements of an overall system of political, economic, and social control. Rather than acting as a check or balance on executive power, the judiciary was often just another arm of the party, used to reward supporters and intimidate opponents. Law enforcement, too, was used to control, rather than protect, the population. The decline of
the pri and the onset of electoral competition transformed the workings of the executive and legislative branches quite quickly, but the changes have had much less influence over the judicial branch or over law enforcement more generally. Instead, even after the transition to democracy, accountability mechanisms remain either nonexistent or defunct. Most of Mexico's various police forces continue to be largely incapable of objective and thorough investigations, having never received adequate resources or training. Impunity reigns: the chance of being prosecuted, much less convicted, of a crime is extremely low. As a result, Mexicans place little faith in their law enforcement and judicial systems. And as today's democratic government manipulating the rule of law for their own benefit.
struggles to overcome this history through legislative reform, funding new programs for vetting and training and creating more avenues for citizen involvement, it faces a new threat: increasingly sophisticated, well-funded, and autonomous criminal organizations intent on
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Morris, Centre on Governance professor University of Ottawa, 2k[Poverty as a Cause of Wars?, http://www.management.uottawa.ca/miller/poverty.htm] It seems reasonable to believe that a powerful "shock" factor might act as a catalyst for a violent reaction on the part of the people or on the part of the political leadership. The leadership, finding that this sudden adverse economic and social impact destabilizing, would possibly be tempted to seek a diversion by finding or, if need be, fabricating an enemy and setting in train the process leading to war. There would not appear to be any merit in this hypothesis according to a study undertaken by Minxin Pei and Ariel Adesnik of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. After studying 93 episodes of economic crisis in 22 countries in Latin America and Asia in the years since World War II they concluded that Much of the conventional wisdom about the political impact of economic crises may be wrong ..The severity of economic crisis - as measured in terms of inflation and negative growth bore no relationship to the collapse of regimes .(or, in democratic states, rarely) to an outbreak of violenceIn the cases of dictatorships and semi-democracies, the ruling elites responded to crises by increasing repression (thereby using one form of violence to abort another.)
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From Mexicos point of view, interrupting the flow of drugs to the United States is not clearly in the national interest or i n that of the economic elite. Observers often dwell on the warfare between smuggling organizations in the northern borderland but rarely on the
flow of American money into Mexico. Certainly, that money could corrupt the Mexican state, but it also behaves as money does. It is accumulated and invested, where it generates wealth and jobs. For the Mexican government to become willing to shut off this flow of money, the violence would have to become far more geographically widespread. And given the difficulty of ending the traffic anyway and that many in the state security and military apparatus benefit from it an obvious conclusion can be drawn: Namely, it is difficult to foresee scenarios in which the Mexican
government could or would stop the drug trade. Instead, Mexico will accept both the pain and the benefits of the drug trade. Mexicos policy is consistent: It makes every effort to appear to be stopping the drug trade so that it will not be accused of supporting it. The government does not object to disrupting one or more of the smuggling groups, so long as the aggregate inflow of cash does not materially decline. It demonstrates to the United States efforts (albeit inadequate) to tackle the trade,
while pointing out very real problems with its military and security apparatus and with its officials in Mexico City. It simultaneously points to the United States as the cause of the problem, given Washingtons failure to control demand or to reduce prices by legalization. And if massive amounts of money pour into Mexico as a result of this U.S. failure, Mexico is not going to refuse it. The problem with the Mexican military or police is not lack of training or equipment. It is not a lack of leadership. These may be problems, but they are only problems if they interfere with implementing Mexican national policy. The problem is that these forces are personally unmotivated to take the risks needed to be effective because they benefit more from being ineffective. This isnt incompetence but a rational national policy.
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U.S. hegemony but a strengthening norm against interstate war, one would not have expected an increase in global instability and violence. The verdict from the past two decades is fairly plain: The world grew more peaceful while the United States cut its forces. No state seemed to believe that its security was endangered by a less-capable United States military, or at least none took any action that would suggest such a belief. No militaries were enhanced to address power vacuums, no security dilemmas drove insecurity or arms races, and no regional balancing occurred once the stabilizing presence of the U.S. military was diminished. The rest of the world acted as if the threat of international war was not a pressing concern, despite the reduction in U.S.
capabilities. Most of all, the United States and its allies were no less safe. The incidence and magnitude of global conflict declined while the United States cut its military spending under President Clinton, and kept declining as the Bush Administration ramped the spending back up. No complex statistical analysis should be necessary to reach the conclusion that the two are unrelated. Military spending figures by themselves are insufficient to disprove a connection between overall U.S. actions and international stability. Once again, one could presumably argue that spending is not the only or even the best indication of hegemony, and that it is instead U.S. foreign political and security commitments that maintain stability. Since neither was significantly altered during this period, instability should not have been expected. Alternately, advocates of hegemonic stability could believe that relative rather than absolute spending is decisive in bringing peace. Although the United States cut back on its spending during the 1990s, its relative advantage never wavered. However, even if it is true that either U.S. commitments or relative spending account for global pacific trends, then at the very least stability can evidently be maintained at drastically lower levels of both. In other words, even if one can be allowed to argue in the alternative for a moment and suppose that there is in fact a level of engagement below which the U nited States cannot drop without increasing
international disorder, a rational grand strategist would still recommend cutting back on engagement and spending until that level is determined. Grand strategic decisions are never final; continual adjustments can and must be made as time goes on.
Basic logic suggests that the United States ought to spend the minimum amount of its blood and treasure while seeking the maximum return on its investment. And if the current era of stability is as stable as many believe it to be, no increase in conflict would ever occur irrespective of U.S. spending, which would save untold trillions for an increasingly debt-ridden nation. It is also perhaps worth noting that if opposite trends had unfolded, if other states had reacted to news of cuts in U.S. defense spending with more aggressive or insecure behavior, then internationalists would surely argue that their expectations had been fulfilled. If increases in conflict would have been interpreted as proof of the wisdom of internationalist strategies, then logical consistency demands that the lack thereof should at least pose a problem. As it stands,
the only evidence we have regarding the likely systemic reaction to a more restrained United States suggests that the current peaceful trends are unrelated to U.S. military spending. Evidently the rest of the world can operate quite effectively without the presence of a global policeman. Those who think otherwise base their view on faith alone.
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More than two decades after the Cold War dramatically ended, the U.S. maintains a Cold War military. America has a couple score allies, dozens of security commitments, hundreds of overseas bases, and hundreds of thousands of troops overseas. Yet international hegemonic communism has disappeared, the Soviet Union has collapsed, Maoist China has been transformed, and pro-communist Third World dictatorships have been discarded in history's dustbin . The European
Union has a larger economy and population than America does. Japan spent decades with the world's second largest economy. South Korea has 40 times the GDP and twice the population of North Korea. As Colin Powell exclaimed in 1991, "I'm running out of demons. I'm running out of enemies. I'm down to Castro and Kim Il-sung." Yet America accounts for roughly half of the globe's military outlays. In real terms the U.S. government spends more on the military today than at any time during the Cold War, Korean War, or Vietnam War. It is difficult for even a paranoid to concoct a traditional threat to the American homeland. Terrorism is no replacement for the threat of nuclear holocaust. Commentator Philip Klein worries about "gutting" the military and argued that military cuts at the end of the Cold War "came back to haunt us when Sept. 11 happened." Yet the reductions, which still left America by far the world's most dominant power, neither allowed the attacks nor prevented Washington from responding with two wars. And responding with two wars turned out to be a catastrophic mistake. Evil terrorism is a threat, but existential threat it is not. Moreover, the best response is not invasions and occupations as the U.S. has learned at high cost in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Rather, the most effective tools are improved intelligence, Special Forces, international cooperation, and restrained intervention. Attempts at nation-building are perhaps even more misguided than subsidizing wealthy industrialized states. America's record isn't pretty. The U.S. wasn't able to anoint its preferred Somali warlord as leader of that fractured nation. Washington's allies in the still unofficial and unstable nation of Kosovo committed grievous crimes against Serb, Roma, and other minorities. Haiti remains a failed state after constant U.S. intervention. The invasion of Iraq unleashed mass violence, destroyed the indigenous Christian community, and empowered Iran; despite elections, a liberal society remains unlikely. After nine years most Afghans dislike and distrust the corrupt government created by the U.S. and sustained only by allied arms. The last resort of those who want America to do
everything everywhere is to claim that the world will collapse into various circles of fiery hell without a ubiquitous and vast U.S. military presence. Yet there is no reason to believe that scores of wars are waiting to break out. And America's prosperous and populous allies are capable of promoting peace and stability in their own regions. Indeed, U.S. security
guarantees are profoundly dangerous. Intended to deter by making American involvement automatic, they ensure American participation if deterrence fails. Moreover, Washington's defense promises discourage friendly states from defending themselves while encouraging them to take more provocative positions against their potential adversaries.
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***Relations Advantage***
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Seelke, Specialist in Latin American Affairs, 2013 (Clare, Jan 16, Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42917.pdf, accessed 7/6/13, CBC) Congress has maintained significant interest in Mexico and played an important role in shaping bilateral relations. Recently, the centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) that governed Mexico from 1929 to 2000 retook the presidency after 12 years of rule by the conservative National Action Party (PAN) in the July 1, 2012 elections. The party also captured a plurality (but not a majority) in Mexicos Senate and Chamber of Deputies. PRI President Enrique Pea Nieto, a former governor of the state of Mexico, took office on December 1, 2012, pledging to enact bold structural reforms and broaden relations with the United States beyond security issues. U.S. policymakers are closely following what the return of a PRI government portends for Mexicos domestic policies and relations with the United States. Upon his inauguration, President Pea Nieto announced a reformist agenda with specific proposals under five broad pillars: reducing violence; combating poverty; boosting economic growth; reforming education; and fostering social responsibility. He then signed a Pact for Mexico agreement with the leaders of the PAN and leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) containing legislative proposals for implementing an agenda that includes energy and fiscal reform. Although the pact may ease opposition in Mexicos Congress, Pea Nieto could face other constraints such as violence perpetrated by Mexicos powerful criminal organizations and the performance of the U.S. and global economies. Some analysts maintain that the prospects for reform under this administration are good, while others are more circumspect. U.S.-Mexican relations grew closer during the Felipe Caldern Administration (2006-2012) as a result of the Mrida Initiative, a bilateral security effort for which Congress has provided $1.9 billion. Some Members of Congress may be concerned about whether bilateral relations, particularly security cooperation, may suffer now that the party controlling the presidency has changed. Although the transition from PAN to PRI rule is unlikely to result in seismic shifts in bilateral relations, a PRI government may emphasize economic issues more than security matters. President Pea Nieto has vowed to continue U.S.-Mexican security cooperation, albeit with a stronger emphasis on reducing violent crime in Mexico than on combating drug trafficking; what that cooperation will look like remains to be seen. He has also expressed support for increased bilateral and trilateral (with Canada) economic and energy cooperation.
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(Andres, Feb 1, The Brookings Institution, Have Prospects for U.S.-Mexican Relations Improved?, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/02/01-us-mexico-rozental, accessed 7/6/13, CBC)
The Mexico-U.S. relationship won't substantially change; there are too many ongoing issues to expect any major shift in what has become a very close and cooperative bilateral partnership in economic, security and social aspects. There will be a change of emphasis from the Mexican side as far as the security relationship goes, with Pea Nieto's declared intention to focus much more on the economy and public safety. He has already moved away from the constant statements made by his predecessor extolling the number of criminals apprehended and 'successes' in the fight against organized crime. The change of message comes as a relief to many Mexicans tired of hearing about violence and crime on a daily basis. There are two issues on the bilateral agenda, however, that portend significant changes if President Obama is able to fulfill his latest commitments: gun control and immigration reform. The latter seems to be headed toward a bipartisan agreement that might fundamentally change the situation for the thousands of Mexicans who are in the United States without proper documents. If Congress passes a comprehensive reform that allows them to normalize their situation and have a path to legal residency and eventual citizenship, it would have a huge positive impact on the relationship. As for gun control, Mexico would obviously favor a total ban on the sale and possession of assault weapons as the best way to prevent them from crossing the border, but even universal background checks and limits on the number and type of weapons an individual can purchase would be a welcome development. On trade ties, Mexico reached a quarter trillion dollars of total exports and imports in 2012 a hefty portion of that unprecedented amount was with the United States. As Mexico becomes an increasingly important part of the global supply chain and U.S. companies continue to invest heavily south of the border, the economic relationship has nowhere to go but up. And if Pea Nieto is able to fundamentally reform the country's energy sector, there promises to be even more investment.
The Mexican public has a favorable view towards the US, relations are high
Horowitz, senior researcher at the Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project, 2013
(Juliana, May 1, Pew Research Global Attitudes Project, How Mexicans See America, http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/05/01/how-mexicans-see-america/, accessed 7/6/13, CBC)
When U.S. President Barack Obama travels to Mexico this week, he will encounter a Mexican public that has far more positive attitudes about the United States than at any time in the last several years Americas image south of the border fell sharply in 2010, when Arizona passed a show me your papers law aimed at identifying, prosecuting and deporting immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally. But Mexican views have rebounded since then, and U.S. favorability ratings are now at their highest point since 2009. The prospects for U.S. immigration reform may be, at least in part, the source of renewed Mexican approval of their neighbor to the north. A new Pew Research Center poll found that 66 percent of Mexicans have a favorable opinion of the U.S., up 10 percentage points from a year ago and up 22 points from May 2010, immediately following the enactment of Arizonas immigration law. The last time Americas image was as strong among Mexicans was in 2009, when 69 percent said they had a favorable opinion.
In Obamas recent visit to Mexico, relations between the two countries were improved exponentially due to a laundry list of agreements
Eagle Pass Business Journal, a business journal for positive and professional journalism on the United States-Mexico Border, 2013
(May 2, Eagle Pass Business Journal, President Barack Obama visit to Mexico improves U.S.-Mexico relations, http://www.epbusinessjournal.com/2013/05/president-barack-obama-visit-to-mexicoimproves-u-s-mexico-relations/, accessed 7/6/13, CBC)
In his meeting earlier today with President Enrique Pea Nieto of Mexico, President Obama underscored the strategic nature of the bilateral relationship, and the two leaders discussed the broad range of bilateral, regional, and global issues
Gonzaga Debate Institute 20 Mexico Renewables Neg that bind the United States and Mexico and touch the daily lives of citizens of both countries. The Presidents discussed ways to deepen the economic and commercial relationship and reaffirmed their commitment to conclude a high-standard Trans-Pacific Partnership this year. President Obama noted the importance of people-to-people connections, including greater educational exchange as part of the 100,000 Strong in the Americas Initiative. President Obama reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to work in partnership with Mexico on the security challenges facing both countries. President Obama pledged to continue to use Merida Initiative resources to support efforts to reduce violence in Mexico and ensure respect for human rights. In particular, the two leaders discussed the importance of working together to strike at the financial underpinnings of criminal enterprises that operate in both countries, while ensuring the integrity of our financial systems for legitimate trade and commerce. President Obama also expressed support for Mexicos transition to an accusatory system of justice. The leaders affirmed their commitment to work together to promote a secure and efficient border. High Level Economic Dialogue. To further elevate and strengthen the U.S.-Mexico bilateral commercial and economic relationship, President Obama and President Pea Nieto agreed to establish a High Level Economic Dialogue (HLED). The HLED, which will be led at the cabinet level, is envisioned as a flexible platform intended to advance strategic economic and commercial priorities central to promoting mutual economic growth, job creation, and competitiveness. It is expected to meet annually, starting this fall, to facilitate dialogue and joint initiatives and to promote shared approaches to regional and global economic leadership. It will build on, but not duplicate, a range of existing successful bilateral dialogues and working groups. Bilateral Forum on Higher Education, Innovation, and Research. Building on a long history of educational collaboration between the United States and Mexico, President Obama and President Pea Nieto announced the formation of a Bilateral Forum on Higher Education, Innovation, and Research. The Forum is intended to expand economic opportunities for citizens of both countries, develop a shared vision on educational cooperation, and share best practices in higher education and innovation. Renewed Commitment to the 21st Century Border Management Initiative. The two Presidents underscored their commitment to a secure and efficient shared border and reaffirmed the importance of the 21st Century Border Management Initiative, noting the recently concluded first meeting under President Pea Nietos tenure of the Initiatives Executive Steering Committee. During that meeting, both governments agreed to support key projects and initiatives that improve infrastructure, facilitate the secure flow of legitimate commerce and travel, and enhance law enforcement cooperation along the border. Parallel cabinet-level discussions have focused on the need to enhance joint security efforts on both sides of the border and further integrate our response to natural disasters. USAID-AMEXCID Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in Third Countries. As part of an increased commitment to cooperate on common goals in Central America and elsewhere in the world, the two Presidents welcomed a recently signed Memorandum of Understanding between the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Mexican Foreign Secretariats Agency for International Development Cooperation (AMEXCID) on international cooperation. The MOU facilitates U.S.-Mexico cooperation in third countries in areas such as economic growth, environment and climate change, disaster management, governance and rule of law, and science, technology, and innovation. U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement. President Obama welcomed positive steps the U.S. Congress has taken recently toward implementing the Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement, which is designed to enhance energy security in North America and support our shared duty to exercise responsible stewardship of the Gulf of Mexico. The Agreement establishes a cooperative process for managing the development of oil and gas reservoirs that cross the international maritime boundary between the two countries in the Gulf of Mexico. USPTO-IMPI Memorandum of Understanding on IPR Cooperation. Recognizing the importance of protecting intellectual property to our broader goals of economic growth and innovation, President Obama welcomed the recent signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office and its counterpart, the Mexican Institute of Industrial Property (IMPI). The MOU will deepen cooperation between the two entities in a range of areas, including: public awareness of the importance of intellectual property; expert exchanges; and sharing best practices on intellectual property office administration.
(Enrique, Nov 23, The Washington Post, U.S., Mexico should build on their economic ties, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-11-23/opinions/35511831_1_energy-independencerenewable-energy-energy-resources, accessed 7/6/13, CBC)
Both Mexico and the United States held presidential races this year, and the results offer an opportunity to redirect our countries bilateral relationship. The U.S. election demonstrated the growing demographic b onds that connect our countries futures. The election in Mexico heralded a new era of change and reform, as much as a new style of governing, based on pragmatism and results. To build a more prosperous future for our two countries, we must continue strengthening and expanding our deep economic, social and cultural ties. It is a mistake to limit our bilateral relationship to drugs and security concerns. Our mutual interests are too vast and complex to be restricted in this short-sighted way. When I meet with President Obama on Tuesday just days before my inauguration I want to discuss the best way to rearrange our common priorities. After all, our agenda affects millions of citizens in both countries. Perhaps the most
Gonzaga Debate Institute 21 Mexico Renewables Neg important issue is finding new ways to bolster our economic and trade relationship to attain common prosperity in our nations. The United States is already Mexicos largest trading partner. As a result of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), our economic ties have grown to an unprecedented degree. NAFTA links 441 million people producing trillions of dollars in goods and services annually, making it the largest trading bloc in the world. Consequently, in NAFTA we have a solid foundation to further integrate our economies through greater investments in finance, infrastructure, manufacturing and energy. Together, we must build a more competitive and productive region. Another relevant bilateral issue relates to Mexicos status as an increasingly desirable and dependable manufacturing location. My country is the second-largest supplier of electronic goods to the United States. Coca-Cola, DuPont, GM, Nissan, Honda, Mazda, Audi and many others are seizing the opportunity to manufacture within our borders. We seek to continue offering U.S. consumers better products and better prices. Energy production is another emerging area that can enhance our nations potential. I plan to open Mexicos energy sector to national and foreign private investment. Mexico holds the fifth largest shale gas reserve in the world, in addition to large deep-water oil reserves and a tremendous potential in renewable energy. We will not surrender Mexicos ownership over its energy resources, and we will not privatize our state -run oil company, Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). We will, however, welcome new technologies, new partnerships and new investments. Together with the United States and Canada, this may well contribute to guaranteeing North American energy independence something from which we would all greatly benefit. Above all, our mutual interest lies in our intertwined peoples. More than 1 million U.S. citizens live in Mexico, and my country remains the largest source of immigrants to the United States. Some analysts detect new momentum for comprehensive immigration reform since the U.S. presidential election. All Mexicans would welcome such a development. Both of our nations are seriously affected by organized-crime activities and drug trafficking. Working against them must be a shared responsibility. I will continue the efforts begun by President Felipe Caldern, but the strategy must necessarily change. I set as a public goal slashing violent crime significantly, proposing a sizable increase in security spending and doing away with redundant police levels. I will improve coordination among crime-fighting authorities, expand the federal police by at least 35,000 officers and bolster intelligence-gathering and analysis. It is also important that our countries increase intelligence-sharing and crime-fighting techniques and promote cooperation among law enforcement agencies. I am visiting Washington and President Obama because our nations share a long-standing and important relationship. The 2012 elections mark the beginning of a new era for the United States and Mexico. This is a great time to join efforts and capitalize on that momentum. We must build a more prosperous North America, on the basis of an alliance for a further competitive and productive integration of our economies.
US Mexico relations are increasing due to a decline in violence Wood, Director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, & Wilson, Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2013
Duncan & Christopher, January 2013, Woodrow Wilson Center, New Ideas for a New Era: Policy Options for the Next Stage in U.S.-Mexico Relations, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/new_ideas_us_mexico_relations.pdf, 7/10/13 While economic issues are likely to see increased attention, much of the day to day work in the bilateral relationship will remain focused on security. There are signs that overall levels of organized crime related violence in Mexico finally began to decline in 2012 after several years of growth, though much work remains to be done on issues of public security and criminal justice reform in Mexico, drug consumption in the United States, and the trafficking of weapons, drugs and illicit funds between the two countries. Fortunately, over the past six years an unprecedented level of cooperation between the U.S. and Mexican governments and their many law enforcement and national security agencies has been achieved, leaving a legacy of increased understanding and trust. Efforts must now be made by both sides to consolidate these gains in the context of the new security strategy being defined by the Mexican administration, the change in personnel in Mexico after the election, and the institutional adjustments seen with the strengthening of Mexicos Secretariat of Internal Affairs (Gobernacin) and the organization changes affecting the Secretariat of Public Security.
US Mexico security cooperation is close and effective Starr, Professor of International Relations and Public Diplomacy at the University of Southern California and Director of the U.S.-Mexico Network, 2012
Pamela K., June 28, 2012, the Council of Foreign Relations, What Mexico's Election Means for the Drug War,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137757/pamela-k-starr/what-mexicos-election-means-for-the-drug-war, 7/10/13 U.S.-Mexico security cooperation has been strikingly close and effective during the tenure of Mexican President Felipe Caldern. A country that had traditionally seen the United States as the principal threat to its national security has come to accept its northern neighbor as a partner in the battle against organized crime. Mexican intelligence agencies and naval units now collaborate closely with U.S. security personnel despite the historic reluctance of Mexicos highly nationalistic military establishment to do so. At the same time, the United States, a country that had traditionally seen Mexico as a weak and unreliable counterpart, has learned to see its southern neighbor as an increasingly trusted associate. The United
Gonzaga Debate Institute Mexico Renewables Neg States now willingly shares sensitive intelligence with Mexican officials, playing a critical role in improving the effectiveness of Mexican counternarcotics operations. Just a generation ago, this would have been unthinkable.
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US and Mexico are already deeply engaged in bilateral co-operation over the drug war, SQ solves US-Mexico relations
Smith, Writer at Stop the Drug War 2013(Phillip, April 30, 2013, Stop the Drug War Mexico to Rein In US Agencies in
Drug War http://stopthedrugwar.org/topics/drug_war_issues/source_countries/mexican_drug_war NMS) Mexico has had a historically prickly relationship with US drug law enforcers, but under former Mexican President Felipe Calderon, whose term ended in December, US law enforcement and security cooperation with Mexican agencies expanded dramatically. The DEA, as well as the FBI, CIA, and Border Patrol, had agents working directly with units of the Mexican Federal Police, the army, and the navy. US law enforcement and security agencies worked closely with their Mexican counterparts on a strategy that aimed at arresting or killing top cartel figures, and managed to eliminate dozens of them, but at the same time, prohibition-related violence only mounted, with the death toll somewhere above 70,000 during Calderon's six-year term. The incoming Pena Nieto administration has previously signaled that it wants to shift away from high-profile target strategy to one centered on crime prevention. The Pena Nieto administration also represents a reversion to governance by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which had famously ruled Mexico as "the perfect dictatorship" for most of the 20th Century before falling to conservative National Action Party (PAN) presidential candidate Vicente Fox in 2000. Like Fox, Calderon ran under the PAN banner and cultivated closer relations with the US, especially on drug enforcement, than the PRI ever had. The PRI's relationships with US drug enforcers could be characterized as one of mutual suspicion and distrust, with occasional bouts of cooperation. As the Washington Post reported, high-ranking incoming PRI officials who met with US DEA, CIA, FBI, and other security representatives in December were stunned and "remained stone-faced as they learned for the first time just how entwined the two countries had become during the battle against narco-traffickers, and how, in the process, the United States had been given nearcomplete entree to Mexico's territory and the secrets of its citizens." Now, the Pena Nieto government is moving to get a better grip on the assistance it gets from its neighbor to the north. It was in the interest of Mexico to do so, Alcocer said. "The issue before is that there was a lack of coordination because there was not a single entity in the Mexican government that was coordinating all the efforts," he told the AP. "Nobody knew what was going on." The DEA and other agencies declined comment, leaving it the State Department, which said it looks forward to "continued close cooperation" with Mexico.
Status quo solves the aff. Economic, security, and democracy talks currently increasing US-Mexico relations
Selee, Vice President for Programs and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute at the Wilson International Center for Scholars 2012(Andrew, July 2, 2012 CNN How will PRI's win change the U.S.-Mexico relationship?
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/02/how-will-pris-win-change-the-u-s-mexico-relationship-not-much/ NMS) At the same time, Mexico's expanding economy has allowed it to become the second destination for U.S. exports. States ranging from Texas to Nebraska, Michigan, Tennessee and New Hampshire depend heavily on the trading relationship with Mexico. Indeed, the growing Mexican economy is helping to fuel the expansion of jobs in these states in the midst of an economic crisis at home. Policymakers in both countries have a vested interest in managing these economic ties responsibly, and a new administration in Mexico is sure to make this a priority. There have also been suspicions that the PRI would renew its old ways in dealing with drug traffickers and jettison the growing security cooperation relationship with the United States. This also seems unlikely to happen, and the new government will almost certainly want to deepen cooperation against drug traffickers. In the past, PRI governments "managed" the traffickers to keep them under control, and scandals and allegations of relationships with cartels hound some former and current state PRI governors. However, the new government in Mexico has enormous incentives to tackle the violence that has beset parts of the country, and it cannot do that without extensive intelligence sharing, equipment and training from the U.S. government. We are likely to see cooperation against trafficking organizations deepen in the coming years as the new government tries to get control of areas in the north and along the coasts where criminal groups have established themselves. The main criminal groups are now too big to be dealt with through negotiations and deals as the PRI did in the 1980s and 90s. Inevitably, the new government will have to continue outgoing President Felipe Calderon's policy of confronting these groups, although it may find ways of prioritizing the protection of civilians in the process. Suspicions will, nonetheless, remain in the United States, as in much of Mexican society, about the PRI's honesty and transparency. A party that ruled through corrupt bargains in the past is unlikely to have been born again overnight. Indeed, the allegations of several creative means for vote buying by the PRI during this election worries many that the old ways of doing business are alive and well still in 2012. But even here there is hope. What has changed is not the PRI but Mexican society and the challenges it faces. Mexicans today have become used to a flourishing democracy with competitive elections, freedom of the press, and greater (if still imperfect) transparency in governance. Mexicans expect politicians to be accountable, police to do their jobs well and courts to be independent. They are often disappointed, to be sure, but their expectations have changed dramatically since the late 1990s when Mexico's democratic process began. The PRI is, in the end, a party that wants legitimacy and to
Gonzaga Debate Institute 23 Mexico Renewables Neg show that it can govern in a democratic era. The new government is almost certain to continue reforms to the courts, police and public services as a way of winning public trust. The United States has a substantial interest in seeing Mexico's democracy flourish, its security situation improve and its economy grow. Making sure that we have a secure and prosperous neighbor next door, with solid democratic institutions, will provide a buffer in an often hostile world and produce enormous tangible benefits for U.S. workers who depend on exports to Mexico. Deepening our partnership with Mexico is key to the future of U.S. security and prosperity. There will be legitimate doubts about the new government in Mexico, but there will be even more pressing reasons to move forward in strengthening the relationship with our neighbor next door.
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(March 29, United Press International, Mexico buoyed by renewable energy boost, aims for solar project, http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2012/03/29/Mexico-buoyed-byrenewable-energy-boost-aims-for-solar-project/UPI-59891333048596/, accessed 7/6/13, CBC)
MEXICO CITY, March 29 (UPI) -- Mexico, buoyed by success in wind energy expansion, is launching a giant solar energy project that sees a U.S. firm's role in its primary development. Soaring crude oil prices have skewed national budgets throughout Central and Latin America and the ongoing row between Argentina and Spain's YPF Repsol is an indication of tension over rising energy costs. Mexico will aim to circumvent the challenge of punishing oil prices by installing highcapacity solar power generation systems, company data indicated. Californian solar systems provider SolFocus, Inc. said Thursday it joined with Mexican land and real estate developer Grupo Musa and U.S. energy developer Synergy Technologies LLC to work on a landmark solar power plant in Baja California, near Tecate, Mexico. The plant is planned to have a 450-megawatt capacity but will be built in 50-megawatt phases. Construction on the first phase will begin this year and that part of the plant will be operational next year. The plant will use the SolFocus Concentrator Photovoltaic equipment, but will be owned and operated by SolMex Energy S.A. de C.V., a new Grupo Musa and Synergy Technologies company focused on solar energy in Mexico. Officials said Mexico's solar energy aims met with the objectives of both Mexican and U.S. energy planners. "The project is in direct alignment with the Mexico and U.S. bilateral clean energy agenda," said David Munoz, director general of the Baja California State Commission of Energy. "The countries share a common goal of achieving strong economic growth and energy security while addressing climate change and increasing the reliability of energy infrastructure," Munoz said. "Mexico has been successful with wind energy, and now this large solar project will support our energy infrastructure and economic development efforts in the very near future," he said.
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(April 3, Environmental News Service, U.S., Canada, Mexico Vow Continental Energy Grid, http://ens-newswire.com/2012/04/03/u-s-canada-mexico-vow-continental-energy-grid/, accessed 7/6/13, CBC)
WASHINGTON, DC, April 2, 2012 (ENS) The leaders of the United States, Mexico, and Canada today pledged to develop continental energy, including electricity generation and interconnection across national borders and welcomed increasing North American energy trade. Meeting in Washington, U.S. President Barack Obama, Canadas President Stephen Harper and Mexicos President Felipe Calderon committed their governments to enhance their collective energy security, to facilitate seamless energy flows on the interconnected grid and to promote trade and investment in clean energy technologies. They will cooperate in expanding cooperation to create clean energy jobs and combat climate change, the leaders said in a joint statement. Enhanced electricity interconnection in the Americas would advance the goals of the Energy and Climate Partnership of the Americas to reduce energy poverty and increase the use of renewable sources of energy, the three leaders said.
Donnelly, associate with the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center, 2010
(Robert, June 28, New Security Beat, U.S.-Mexico Cooperation on Renewable Energy: Building a Green Agenda, http://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2010/06/u-s-mexico-cooperation-on-renewableenergy-building-a-green-agenda/#.UdnKbjs3u8B, accessed 7/7/13, CBC)
A U.S.-Mexico taskforce on renewables was recently formedan announcement timed to coincide with President Felipe Calderons April 2010 state visit to Washingtonand there has been high-level engagement on the issue by both administrations. Collaboration between Mexico and U.S. government agencies through the Mexico Renewable Energy Program has enabled richer development of Mexicos renewable resour ces while promoting the electrification and economic development of parts of rural Mexico.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 26 Mexico Renewables Neg going the other way -- was virtually identical. Obama's take: "We've got to have more effective border security; although it should build on the great improvements that have been made on border security over the last four or five years," Obama said in a news conference this week. "We should make the legal immigration system work more effectively so that the waits are not as burdensome, the bureaucracy is not as complicated, so we continue to attract the best and the brightest from around the world to our shores in a legal fashion." President Enrique Pea Nieto and President Barack Obama meet in 2012. Pea Nieto's take: "We fully support your proposal for this migration reform," Pea Nieto told Obama in November. "More than demanding what you should do or shouldn't do, we do want to tell you that we want to contribute. We really want to participate with you. We want to contribute toward the accomplishment, so that of course we can participate in the betterment and the well-being of so many millions of people who live in your country." Public opinion: According to the Pew Research Center, Mexicans are divided on whether this is good or bad for their country; 44% say it's good for Mexico that many of its citizens live in the United States, and an equal share say this is bad for Mexico. And, perhaps the most surprising find from the study said that 61% of Mexicans would not move to the United States even if they had the means to do so. However, 35% say they would move to the United States if they could, including 20% who say they would emigrate without authorization. A little less than a third of the Mexicans questioned (30%) say they personally know someone who went to the United States but returned to Mexico because the person couldn't find work, according to the Pew Research Center. About a quarter (27%) know someone who has been deported or detained by the U.S. government for immigration reasons in the last 12 months. 3. Security and the drug war The situation: The battle against drug cartels has played a dominant role in U.S.-Mexican relations in recent years. Officials on both sides of the border have said that drugs traveling north from Mexico to consumers in the United States and weapons traveling south from the United States to cartels in Mexico are an increasingly deadly combination. High-profile cartel takedowns were a hallmark of former President Felipe Calderon's tenure. Pea Nieto has vowed to take a different approach, focusing more on education problems and social inequality that he says fuel drug violence. The details of his policies are still coming into focus, and analysts say his government has deliberately tried to shift drug violence out of the spotlight. Critics have expressed concerns that Pea Nieto's government will turn a blind eye to cartels or negotiate with them -- something he repeatedly denied on the campaign trail last year. On Tuesday -- two days before Obama's arrival -- his government arrested the father-in-law of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, head of Mexico's Sinaloa cartel and one of the country's mostwanted drug lords. While both Obama and Pea Nieto have said they're committed to working together on security issues, it's unclear whether the U.S. role will change as Mexico's government shifts its strategy. Obama's take: The U.S. president has repeatedly said the United States will work to reduce demand for drugs and to stop the illegal flow of weapons to Mexico. But there's one approach he says isn't on the table -- drug legalization
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recognize the nature of economic integration that has occurred since NAFTA, making our two economies virtually inseparable, along with Canada, as a joint production platform. This new reality should
both be celebrated and also enhanced. Joint approaches within the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations can be a means to achieve NAFTA 2.0. If coupled with a North American approach to potential trade negotiations with the EU, North American economic integration can advance to a point unthinkable even a few short years ago. With continued economic and commercial pressure from China, India, and elsewhere, this approach will support the long-term economic well-being of the United States and North America more broadly. A joint economic agenda is now more achievable than before. The Hispanic community in the United States has found its voice politically, manufacturing is returning to the United States due to lower prices for natural gas, and, despite ongoing concerns about violence and the drugs trade, Mexico is doing well enough economically to entice investors back from China. Now is perhaps the best opportunity in recent memory to intensify economic collaboration. It should be the top bilateral priority.
bound by borders or bureaucratic divisions. And what we are focused on today is a part of that relationship, but a truly significant part. We are working in our two governments together to solve the problem posed by the criminal cartels that stalk the streets of your cities and ours, that kill and injure innocent people, and spread a reign of terror and intimidation, and use the trafficking of drugs to addict people, the trafficking of persons to degrade them, and who are truly an insult and a rebuke to the common values that our two nations share. It's an honor to be joined here in Mexico by a very significant delegation
from the Obama Administration. Defense Secretary Gates, Homeland Security Secretary Napolitano, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Admiral Mullen, Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair, Deputy National Security Advisor John Brennan, Acting Deputy Attorney General Grindler, Acting Administrator of the DEA Michele Leonhart, Director of the Office of Foreign Assets in the Treasury Department Adam Szubin, Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy Gil Kerlikowske, Ambassador Pascual, and a wide range of senior officials, all of whom are committed to this unique partnership that we are exhibiting today. Our broad engagement allows us to come at these problems from many different angles,
to devise cross-cutting solutions, to ensure that our two governments are working hand-in-hand, not just at the ministerial level but all the way down our bureaucracies.
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The past few decades have seen profound changes in the bilateral relationship between the United States and Mexico. The interests of the two countries, which often diverged during the Cold War years, increasingly began to converge following collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. With this convergence, bilateral relations seemed to enter a more cooperative stage. The signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993 was deemed a fitting symbol of the new, mutually beneficial relationship between the two countries. It was not long, however, before familiar conflicts over traditional issues - such as immigration, drugs and trade - began to resurface. The December 1994 devaluation of the peso, followed shortly thereafter by the heating up of the US presidential campaign, shifted the focus of the bilateral relationship away from the much anticipated benefits of the NAFTA to the costs of that agreement. In fact, by increasing the interdependence between the United States and Mexico, NAFTA served to blur even further the distinction between foreign and domestic issues, which had already been weakening for some time. As a result, after NAFTA, it became increasingly difficult to delink the various bilateral issues from each other. This made the solution of formerly manageable problems more intractable. It is not clear whether the increased, and growing, economic interdependence between the United States and Mexico will continue to magnify conflicts between them by automatically transforming domestic conflicts into bilateral ones and vice versa. There is reason to believe that the current situation may be transitional as both the United States and Mexico adjust to, and come to terms with, the new global economy and the ever-increasing links between the two countries. There is even some evidence that, on balance, NAFTA will prove more of a solution for, than a source of, bilateral friction and tensions. Much, of course, will depend on how the various actors on both sides of the border choose to manage their relations in this difficult period. The 2,000 mile shared border between the United States and Mexico has always made for a "special relationship" between the two countries. Each country's concept of the kind of special treatment it wanted from the other, however, was quite different. As a superpower with global security concerns, the United States wanted Mexico to be a stable, reliable ally against hostile powers interested in expanding their influence in Washington's "backyard." Mexico, in contrast, believed that a special relationship with the rich and powerful United States should provide it with economic advantages that would help it to transform itself from a developing to a developed country. Not surprisingly, each country ended up by disappointing the other. Mexico came to look upon the border shared with the United States more as a threat than as an opportunity. This was not surprising, given the history of US-Mexico relations. Every Mexican child knew that the United States had "taken" half of Mexico's territory during the 19th century while, during the 20th century, outright military intervention had been replaced by less tangible forms of intervention or interference. New technologies, such as television, combined with the growing importance of US multinational corporations in Mexico's economy, had fed Mexican politicians, and intellectuals in particular, to focus their attention instead on the threats these posed to Mexico's culture, identity, and sovereignty.
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Defeat Aggression: The core task of our Armed Forces remains to defend our Nation and win its wars. To do so, we must provide capabilities to defeat adversary aggression. Military force , at times, may be necessary to defend our Nation and allies or to preserve broader peace and security. Seeking to adhere to international standards, the United States will use military force in concert with allies and partners whenever possible, while reserving the right to act alone if necessary. Across a wide range of contingencies, military leaders will provide our Nations leadership with options of how the military can help achieve the Nations objectives.
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The White House, 2011 (July 19, thewhitehouse.gov, Strategy to Combat Transnational Organized Crime, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/Strategy_to_Combat_Transnational_Organize d_Crime_July_2011.pdf, accessed 7/12/13, CBC)
For nations that have the will to fulfill their international law enforcement commitments but lack the necessary means, the United States is committed to partnering with them to develop stronger law enforcement and criminal justice institutions necessary for ensuring the rule of law. Over the past decade, important gains have been made in developing criminal justice capacities in key regions of the world. The goal of the United States is to promote the expansion of such achievements on a worldwide basis, to the point where international law enforcement capabilities and cooperation among states are self-sustaining. Great progress also has been made in developing a common normative framework for international cooperation against TOC threats. The challenge for the United States and other countries over the next decade is to bring the promise of this worldwide regime into practice. The United States will encourage international partners to dedicate the necessary political capital and resources toward making the promise of these commitments a reality. The United States will pursue this through both a renewed commitment to multilateral diplomacy and by leveraging bilateral partnerships to elevate the importance of combating TOC as a key priority of U.S. diplomacy. For example, in February 2011, the United States and the United Kingdom established the Organized Crime Contact Group, to be chaired by the UK Home Secretary and the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism. In addition, the United States deploys hundreds of law enforcement attachs to its missions abroad to develop and maintain foreign contacts essential to combating immediate threats to public safety and security. The United States will continue to place a high priority on the provision of international technical assistance through our missions abroad and will continue to improve the coordination of these programs. The United States will leverage all possible areas of cooperation, including legal instruments such as the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (the Palermo Convention), the UN Convention against the Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances, and the protocols to which the United States is a party, to obtain the assistance of international partners and to raise international criminal justice, border security, and law enforcement standards and norms. The United States will strengthen its engagement with the United Nations in this regard and leverage the growing role of regional and other multilateral institutions that have risen in significance and influence over the past decade. Additionally, the United States will continue to pursue cooperation with other countries and with partners such as the European Union, the G-8, the G-20, and new inter-regional platforms across the Pacific and Atlantic in developing leading-edge initiatives and political commitments to combat TOC.
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Vice President Joe Biden told his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that the economic stability of the world depends on the U.S.-China relationship, Reuters reported Thursday. Biden, speaking on the first day of an official visit to China, said the two countries must focus on strengthening their economic ties. The trip comes in the midst of Chinese concerns over the U.S.s financial condition the country is the largest single holder of U.S. government debt. I would suggest that there is no more important relationship that we need to establish on the part of the United States than a close relationship with China, Biden said. I am absolutely confident that the economic stability of the world rests in no small part on cooperation between the United States and China. Vice President Xi told Biden that economic concerns are now the cornerstone of the two countries relationship. Recently, turmoil in international financial markets has deepened and global economic growth faces severe challenges, Xi said, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. As the worlds two biggest economies, China and the United States have a responsibility to strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination and together boost market confidence . The visit, which Biden said is about establishing relationships and trust, will not be about making deals. I also come with a strong message that the United State s of America is and will continue to be engaged totally in the world, Biden told Xi at the meeting.
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***Warming Advantage***
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(Kevin, United Nations, Human Development Report 2007/2008, p. 4, http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Overview.pdf, accessed 7/10/13, CBC)
The cumulative nature of the climate change has wide-ranging implications. Perhaps the most important is that carbon cycles do not follow political cycles. The current generation of political leaders cannot solve the climate change problem alone because a sustainable emissions pathway has to be followed over decades, not years. However, it has the power either to prise open the window of opportunity for future generations, or to close that window.
US China relations key to solving climate change they are the only two nations which are capable
Harvey, environmental correspondent for The Guardian, 2012 (Fiona, Dec. 12, The Guardian, China and US hold the key to a new global climate deal, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/dec/12/china-us-global-climate-deal, accessed 7/10/13, CBC)
China and the US are to be the clear focus of the next year of climate change negotiations, following a hard-fought climate conference that ended in Doha on Saturday night. The world's two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases hold the key to forging a new global agreement on climate change, that for the first time would bind both developed and developing countries to cut their emissions. But both face severe political problems that will make the talks for the next few years extremely difficult. At Doha, in a marathon 36-hour final session, governments agreed on a handful of measures that will enable the focus to move from the old negotiations to a new set of talks that will focus solely on forging a new international agreement, to be drawn up in 2015 and come into force from 2020. The measures included a continuation of the Kyoto protocol to 2020, and an agreement that "vulnerable countries" would be entitled to payments for the "loss and damage" they suffered as a result of climate change. But for the new talks, which will start at the beginning of next year, to succeed, both the US and China must accept stiff emissions-cutting targets, and find a way of providing finance to poor countries to help them cut emissions and cope with the effects of global warming. Connie Hedegaard, the EU climate chief, made a veiled reference to China after the conference when she said: "Some people have no contributions [on cutting] emissions under the Kyoto protocol] and they want that to last. But there is a new world order now. The rich have to do more than the poorest but all will have to do something."
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A new ice age is due now , but you wont hear it from the green groups, who like to play on Western guilt about
consumerism to make us believe in global warming. THE Earth's climate is changing in a dramatic way, with immense danger for mankind and the natural systems that sustain it. This was the frightening message broadcast to us by environmentalists in the recent past. Here are some of their prophecies. The facts have emerged, in recent years and months, from research into past ice ages. They imply that the threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind. (Nigel Calder, former editor of New Scientist, in International Wildlife, July 1975) The cooling has already killed thousands of people in poor nations... If it continues, and no strong measures are taken to deal with it, the cooling will cause world famine, world chaos, and probably world war, and this could all come about by the year 2000. (Lowe Ponte, The Cooling, 1976) As recently as January 1994, the supreme authority on matters environmental, Time magazine, wrote: The ice age cometh? Last week's big chill was a reminder that the Earth's climate can change at any time ... The last (ice age) ended 10,000 years ago; the next one for there will be a next one could start tens of thousands of years from now. Or tens of years. Or it may have already started. The scare about global cooling was always the same: unprecedented low temperatures; the coldest weather recorded; unusual floods and storms; a rapid shift in the world's climate towards an icy apocalypse. But now, the scare is about global warming. To convert from the first scare to the second, all you have to do is substitute "the coldest weather recorded" with "the warmest weather recorded". Replace the icicles hanging from oranges in California with melting glaciers on Mt Everest, and the shivering armadillos with sweltering polar bears. We were going to freeze but now we are going to fry. Even the White House is making cautionary sounds about warming. What facts have emerged to make this dramatic reversal? Well, none really. The most reliable measurements show no change whatsoever in global temperatures in the past 20 years. What has changed is the perception that global warming makes a better scare than the coming ice age. A good environmental scare needs two ingredients. The first is impending catastrophe. The second is a suitable culprit to blame. In the second case, the ice age fails and global warming is gloriously successful. It is not the destruction itself of Sodom and Gomorrah that makes the story so appealing but the fact that they were destroyed because they were so sinful. One of the real threats to mankind is the danger of collision with a large asteroid. It has happened in the past with catastrophic effect, and it will probably happen again. But there are no conferences, resolutions, gatherings, protests and newspaper headlines about asteroid impacts. The reason is that you cannot find anyone suitable to blame for them. If you could persuade people that President Bush or the oil companies were responsible for the asteroids, I guarantee there would be a billion-dollar campaign to "raise awareness" about the asteroid danger, with sonorous editorials in all the papers. Global warming has the perfect culprit: naughty, industrialised, advanced, consuming, Western society, which has made itself very rich by burning a lot of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas). This, so the scare goes, is releasing a lot of carbon dioxide, which is dangerously heating up the world. THERE are two facts in the scare. First, it is true that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas one which traps heat on Earth. (Without it, the Earth would be 'too cold for' life.) Second, it is true that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising. The rest is guesswork. The global warmers said the most accurate measure of climate change would be air temperatures. For the past 20 years or more, air temperatures have been measured with extreme accuracy. They show no warming whatsoever. Surface temperatures are much less reliable since the recording stations are often encroached on by expanding cities, which warm the local environment. The curve most often used by the global warmers is one showing surface temperatures rising by about half a degree in the past 100 years. (The curve, incidentally, is a bad match against rising carbon dioxide but a good one against solar activity, which suggests the sun might be the reason for the warming.) However, there are accurate methods of measuring sea temperatures going back much further. Past temperatures for the Atlantic Ocean have been found by looking at dead marine life. The isotope ratio of carbon-14 in their skeletons tells you when they lived. The ratio of other isotopes tells you the temperature then. Thus we are able to know temperatures in the Atlantic and northern Europe going back thousands of years. They make nonsense of the global warming scare. The last ice age ended about 10,000 years ago. Temperatures rose to the "Holocene Maximum" of about 5000 years ago when it was about l.5C higher than now, dropped in the time of Christ, and then rose to the "Medieval Climate Optimum" in the years 600 to 1100, when temperatures. were about 1C higher than now. This was a golden age for northern European agriculture and led to the rise of Viking civilisation. Greenland, now a frozen wasteland, was then a habitable Viking colony. There were vineyards in the south of England. Then temperatures dropped to "The Little Ice Age" in the 1600s, when the Thames froze over. And they have been rising slowly ever since, although they are still much lower than 1000 years ago. We are now in a rather cool period. What caused these ups and downs of temperature? We do not know. Temperature changes are a fact of nature, and we have no idea if the claimed 0.3C heating over the past 100 years is caused by man's activities or part of a natural cycle. What we can say, though, is that if Europe heats up by 1C it would do it a power of good. We can see this from records of 1000 years ago. Moreover, increased
Gonzaga Debate Institute 40 Mexico Renewables Neg carbon dioxide makes plants grow more quickly, so improving crops and forests. The Earth's climate is immensely complicated, far beyond our present powers of understanding and the calculating powers of modern computers. Changes in phase from ice to water to vapour; cloud formation; convection; ocean currents; winds; changes in the sun: the complicated shapes of the land masses; the ability of the oceans to absorb carbon dioxide all of these and a thousand other factors operating with small differences over vast masses and distances make it practically impossible for us to make predictions about long-term climate patterns, and perhaps make such predictions inherently impossible. The computer models that the global warmers now use are ludicrously oversimplified, and it is no surprise they have made one wrong prediction after another. If the global warming scare has little foundation in fact, the ice-age scare is only too solidly founded. For the past two million years, but not before, the northern hemisphere has gone through a regular cycle of ice ages: 90,000 years with ice: 10,000 years without. The last ice age ended 10,000 years ago. Our time is up. The next ice age is due. We do not know what causes the ice ages. It is probably to do with the arrangement of northern land masses and the path of the Gulf Stream, but we do not know. However, a new ice age, unlike global warming, would be a certain calamity. It may be that increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are actually warding off the
ice age. In this case, we should give tax relief to coal power stations and factories for every tonne of carbon dioxide they
release.
An ice age is coming and will cause extinction- need to keep up emissions to survive
Chapman, geophysicist and astronautical engineer, 8
(Phil, April 23th 2008, The Australian, Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23583376-7583,00.html, accessed 7/12/2013, JA) THE scariest photo I have seen on the internet is www.spaceweather.com, where you will find a real-time image of the sun from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, located in deep space at the equilibrium point between solar and terrestrial gravity. What is scary about the picture is that there is only one tiny sunspot. Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global
temperature is falling precipitously. All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate Research
Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in 2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over. There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that 2007 was exceptionally cold. It snowed in Baghdad for the first time in centuries, the winter in China was simply terrible and the extent of Antarctic sea ice in the austral winter was the greatest on record since James Cook discovered the place in 1770. It is generally not possible to draw conclusions about climatic trends from events in a single year, so I would normally dismiss this cold snap as transient, pending what happens in the next few years. This is where SOHO comes in. The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start soon after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers. It didn't happen. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days . A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday. Pray that there will be many more, and soon. The reason this matters is that there is a close correlation between variations in the sunspot cycle and Earth's climate. The previous time a cycle was delayed like this was in the Dalton Minimum, an especially cold period that lasted several decades from 1790. Northern winters became ferocious: in particular, the rout of Napoleon's Grand Army during the retreat from Moscow in 1812 was at least partly due to the lack of sunspots. That the rapid temperature decline in 2007 coincided with the failure of cycle No.24 to begin on schedule is not proof of a causal connection but it is cause for concern. It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850. There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do . There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it. Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture to compensate), and millions more will die from cold-related diseases. There is also another possibility, remote but much more serious. The Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and other evidence show that for the past several million years, severe glaciation has almost always afflicted our planet. The bleak truth is that, under normal conditions, most of North America and Europe are buried under about 1.5km of ice. This bitterly frigid climate is interrupted occasionally by brief warm interglacials, typically lasting less than 10,000 years. The interglacial we have enjoyed throughout recorded human history, called the Holocene, began 11,000 years ago, so the ice is overdue. We also know that glaciation can occur quickly: the required decline in
Gonzaga Debate Institute 41 Mexico Renewables Neg global temperature is about 12C and it can happen in 20 years. The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years. On the other hand, it must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. If it continued for 20 years, the temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027. By then, most of the advanced nations would have ceased to exist, vanishing under the ice, and the rest of the world would be faced with a catastrophe beyond imagining. Australia may escape total annihilation but would surely be overrun by millions of refugees. Once the glaciation starts, it will last 1000 centuries, an incomprehensible stretch of time.
enough food for eight or nine billion people from the relatively small amount of arable land left unfrozen will be a potentially desperate effort. The broad, fertile plains of Alberta and the Ukraine will become sub-Arctic wastes. Wildlife species will be extremely challenged, even though they've survived such cold before-because this time there will be more humans competing for the ice-free land. That's when human knowledge and high-tech farming will be truly needed. In contrast, none of the
scary scenarios posited by today's global warming advocates took place during the Earth's past warm periods
Gonzaga Debate Institute 42 Mexico Renewables Neg were widespread. Harbours froze, so did rivers, and trade ceased. It's way too early to claim the same is about to happen again, but then it's way too early for the hysteria of the global warmers, too.
An ice age is cooling due to lower sun activity- solar science proves
Svensmark, PhD., director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at DTU Space,9
(Henrik, 9/10/09, Whatsupwiththat.com, Svensmark: global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning enjoy global warming while it lasts, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/10/svensmark-global-warming-stopped-and-acooling-is-beginning-enjoy-global-warming-while-it-lasts/, accessed 7/12/13, JA) The star that keeps us alive has, over the last few years, been almost free of sunspots, which are the usual signs of the Suns magnetic activity. Last week [4 September 2009] the scientific team behind the satellite SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) reported, It is likely that the current years number of blank days will be the longest in about 100 years. Everything indicates that the Sun is going into some kind of hibernation, and the obvious question is what significance that has for us on Earth. If you ask the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which represents the current consensus on climate change, the answer is a reassuring nothing. But history and recent research suggest that is probably completely wrong. Why? Lets take a closer look. Solar activity has always varied. Around the year 1000, we had a period of very high solar activity, which coincided with the Medieval Warm Period. It was a time when frosts in May were almost unknown a matter of great importance for a good harvest. Vikings settled in Greenland and explored the coast of North America. On the whole it was a good time. For example, Chinas population doubled in this period. But after about 1300 solar activity declined and the world began to get colder. It was the beginning of the episode we now call the Little Ice Age. In this cold time, all the Viking settlements in Greenland disappeared. Sweden surprised Denmark by marching across the ice, and in London the Thames froze repeatedly. But more serious were the long periods of crop failures, which resulted in poorly nourished populations, reduced in Europe by about 30 per cent because of disease and hunger. "The March across the Belts was a campaign between January 30 and February 8, 1658 during the Northern Wars where Swedish king Karl X Gustav led the Swedish army from Jutland across the ice of the Little Belt and the Great Belt to reach Zealand (Danish: Sjlland). The risky but vastly successful crossing was a crushing blow to Denmark, and led to the Treaty of Roskilde later that year...." - Click for larger image. Its important to realise that the Little Ice Age was a global event. It ended in the late 19th Century and was followed by increasing solar activity. Over the past 50 years solar activity has been at its highest since the medieval warmth of 1000 years ago. But now it appears that the Sun has changed again, and is returning towards what solar scientists call a grand minimum such as we saw in the Little Ice Age. The match between solar activity and climate through the ages is sometimes explained away as coincidence. Yet it turns out that, almost no matter when you look and not just in the last 1000 years, there is a link. Solar activity has repeatedly fluctuated between high and low during the past 10,000 years. In fact the Sun spent about 17 per cent of those 10,000 years in a sleeping mode, with a cooling Earth the result. You may wonder why the international climate panel IPCC does not believe that the Suns changing activity affects the climate. The reason is that it considers only changes in solar radiation . That would be the simplest way for the Sun to change the climate a bit like turning up and down the brightness of a light bulb. Satellite measurements have shown that the variations of solar radiation are too small to explain climate change. But the panel has closed its eyes to another, much more powerful way for the Sun to affect Earths climate . In 1996 we discovered a surprising influence of the Sun its impact on Earths cloud cover. High-energy accelerated particles coming from exploded stars, the cosmic rays, help to form clouds. When the Sun is active, its magnetic field is better at shielding us against the cosmic rays coming from outer space, before they reach our planet. By regulating the Earths cloud cover, the Sun can turn the temperature up and down. High solar activity means fewer clouds and and a warmer world. Low solar activity and poorer shielding against cosmic rays result in increased cloud cover and hence a cooling. As the Suns magnetism doubled in strength during the 20th century, this natural mechanism may be responsible for a large part of global warming seen then. That also explains why most climate scientists try to ignore this possibility. It does not favour their idea that the 20th century temperature rise was mainly due to human emissions of CO2. If the Sun provoked a significant part of warming in the 20th Century, then the contribution by CO2 must necessarily be smaller. Ever since we put forward our theory in 1996, it has been subjected to very sharp criticism, which is normal in science. First it was said that a link between clouds and solar activity could not be correct, because no physical mechanism was known. But in 2006, after many years of work, we completed experiments at DTU Space that demonstrated the existence of a physical mechanism. The cosmic rays help to form aerosols, which are the seeds for cloud formation. Then came the criticism that the mechanism we found in the laboratory could not work in the real atmosphere, and therefore had no practical significance. We have just rejected that criticism emphatically. It turns out that the Sun itself performs what might be called natural experiments. Giant solar eruptions can cause the cosmic ray intensity on earth to dive suddenly over a few days. In the days following an eruption, cloud cover can fall by about 4 per cent. And the amount of liquid water in cloud droplets is reduced by almost 7 per cent. Here is a very large effect indeed so great that in popular terms the Earths clouds originate in space. So we have watched the Suns magnetic activity with increasing concern, since it began to wane in the mid-1990s. That the Sun might now fall asleep in a deep minimum was suggested by solar scientists at a meeting in Kiruna in Sweden two years ago. So when Nigel Calder and I updated our book The Chilling Stars, we wrote a little provocatively that we are advising our friends to enjoy global warming while it lasts. In fact global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning. Mojib Latif from the University of Kiel argued at the recent UN World Climate Conference in
Gonzaga Debate Institute 43 Mexico Renewables Neg Geneva that the cooling may continue through the next 10 to 20 years. His explanation was a natural change in the North Atlantic circulation, not in solar activity. But no matter how you interpret them, natural variations in climate are making a comeback.
Emissions can prevent an ice age we must continue to burn fossil fuels
Science Daily, 7
(Aug. 30, 2007, ScienceDaily.com, Next Ice Age Delayed By Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070829193436.htm, accessed 7/12/2013, JA) Future ice ages may be delayed by up to half a million years by our burning of fossil fuels. That is the implication of recent work by Dr Toby Tyrrell of the University of Southampton's School of Ocean and Earth Science at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton. Arguably, this work demonstrates the most far-reaching disruption of long-term planetary processes yet suggested for human activity. Dr Tyrrell's team used a mathematical model to study what would happen to marine chemistry in a world with ever-increasing supplies of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide. The world's oceans are absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere but in doing so they are becoming more acidic. This in turn is dissolving the calcium carbonate in the shells produced by surface-dwelling marine organisms, adding even more carbon to the oceans. The outcome is elevated carbon dioxide for far longer than previously assumed. Computer modelling in 2004 by a then oceanography undergraduate student at the University, Stephanie Castle, first interested Dr Tyrrell and colleague Professor John Shepherd in the problem. They subsequently developed a theoretical analysis to validate the plausibility of the phenomenon. The work, which is part-funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, confirms earlier ideas of David Archer of the University of Chicago, who first estimated the impact rising CO2 levels would have on the timing of the next ice age. Dr Tyrrell said: 'Our research shows why atmospheric CO2 will not return to pre-industrial levels after we stop burning fossil fuels. It shows that it if we use up all known fossil fuels it doesn't matter at what rate we burn them. The result would be the same if we burned them at present rates or at more moderate rates; we would still get the same eventual ice-age-prevention result.' Ice ages occur around every 100,000 years as the pattern of Earth's orbit alters over time. Changes in the way the sun strikes the Earth allows for the growth of ice caps, plunging the Earth into an ice age. But it is not only variations in received sunlight that determine the descent into an ice age; levels of atmospheric CO2 are also important. Humanity has to date burnt about 300 Gt C of fossil fuels. This work suggests that even if only 1000 Gt C (gigatonnes of carbon) are eventually burnt (out of total reserves of about 4000 Gt C) then it is likely that the next ice age will be skipped. Burning all recoverable fossil fuels could lead to avoidance of the next five ice ages.
Warming cant trigger another Ice Age prefer our science over their unwarranted fear-mongering
Gibbs, journalist for the New York Times, 2007
(Walter, May 15th 2007, The New York Times, Scientists Back Off Theory of a Colder Europe in a Warming World, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/15/science/earth/15cold.html?pagewanted=1&n=Top/News/Science/Topics/%20Env ironment&_r=2%3E, accessed 7/12/13, JA) Mainstream climatologists who have feared that global warming could have the paradoxical effect of cooling northwestern Europe or even plunging it into a small ice age have stopped worrying about that particular disaster, although it retains a vivid hold on the public imagination. The idea, which held climate theorists in its icy grip for years, was that the North Atlantic Current, an extension of the Gulf Stream that cuts northeast across the Atlantic Ocean to bathe the high latitudes of Europe with warmish equatorial water, could shut down in a greenhouse world. Without that warm-water current, Americans on the Eastern Seaboard would most likely feel a chill, but the suffering would be greater in Europe, where major cities lie far to the north. Britain, northern France, the Low Countries, Denmark and Norway could in theory take on Arctic aspects that only a Greenlander could love, even as the rest of the world sweltered. All that has now been removed from the forecast. Not only is northern Europe warming, but every major climate model produced by scientists worldwide in recent years has also shown that the warming will almost certainly continue. The concern had previously been that we were close to a threshold where the Atlantic circulation system would stop, said Susan Solomon, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We now believe we are much farther from that threshold, thanks to improved modeling and ocean measurements. The Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current are more stable than previously thought. After consulting 23 climate models, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in February it was very unlikely that the crucial flow of warm water to Europe would stall in this century. The panel did say that the gradual melting of the Greenland ice sheet along with increased precipitation in the far north were likely to weaken the North Atlantic Current by 25 percent through 2100. But the panel added that any cooling effect in Europe would be overwhelmed by a general warming of the atmosphere, a warming that the panel said was under way as a result of rising concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases. The bottom line is that the
Gonzaga Debate Institute 44 Mexico Renewables Neg atmosphere is warming up so much that a slowdown of the North Atlantic Current will never be able to cool Europe , said Helge Drange, a professor at the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center in Bergen, Norway.
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Nuclear meltdowns dont cause death-multiple backups and its empirically denied
Beller works at the Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , 2004
[Dennis, Atomic Time Machines: Back to the Nuclear Future Land Resources and Envtl.] vpotluri No caveats, no explanation, not from this engineer/scientist. It's just plain safe! All sources of electricity production result in health and safety impacts. However, at the National Press Club meeting, Energy Secretary Richardson indicated that nuclear power is safe by stating, "I'm convinced it is." 45 Every nuclear scientist and engineer should agree with that statement. Even mining, transportation, and waste from nuclear power have lower impacts because of the difference in magnitude of materials. In addition, emissions from nuclear plants are kept to near zero. 46 If you ask a theoretical scientist, nuclear energy does have a potential tremendous adverse impact. However, it has had that same potential for forty years, which is why we designed and operate nuclear plants with multiple levels of containment and safety and multiple backup systems. Even the country's most catastrophic accident, the partial meltdown at Three Mile Island in 1979, did not injure anyone. 47 The fact is, Western-developed and Western-operated nuclear power is the safest major source of electricity production. Haven't we heard enough cries of "nuclear wolf" from scared old men and "the sky is radioactive" from [*50] nuclear Chicken Littles? We have a world of data to prove the fallacy of these claims about the unsafe nature of nuclear installations. Figure 2. Deaths resulting from electricity generation. 48 Figure 2 shows the results of an ongoing analysis of the safety impacts of energy production from several sources of energy. Of all major sources of electricity, nuclear power has produced the least impact from real accidents that have killed real people during the past 30 years, while hydroelectric has had the most severe accident impact. 49 The same is true for environmental and health impacts. 50 Of all major sources of energy, nuclear energy has the least impacts on environment and health while coal has the greatest. 51 The low death [*51] rate from nuclear power accidents in the figure includes the Chernobyl accident in the Former Soviet Union. 52
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would be cut to $1 billion, a reduction of $911 million compared to 2013. The cut comes as part of an Energy and Water appropriations bill, the fifth that the House is moving as part of a plan to produce all 12 annual spending bills at the topline $967 billion level called for in the 2011 sequestration law. The House is increasing defense spending above the sequester level and must cut non-defense spending in order to offset those increases. The Energy Department oversees the nations nuclear arsenal, so defense spending is part of its appropriations bill. In a challenging fiscal environment, we have to prioritize funding, and the Subcommittee chose to address the readiness and safety of the nations nuclear stockpile and to invest in critical infrastructure projects to protect lives and property and support economic growth, said subcommittee Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-N.J.).
Gonzaga Debate Institute 53 Mexico Renewables Neg But even after a year of record-breaking heat, Obama embarks on his second term against the backdrop of a Congress that remains stubbornly divided on questions of climate and conservation, leaving little hope these issues will be addressed through broad-based legislation, which the administration has long said was the preferred route for such measures. That will leave the president with a long list of demands and expectations from his environmental base and only the comparatively narrow corridors of his own regulatory authority through which to pursue any of it -- should he choose to do so.
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