Sie sind auf Seite 1von 6

International Journal of Emerging Trends & Technology in Computer Science (IJETTCS)

Web Site: www.ijettcs.org Email: editor@ijettcs.org, editorijettcs@gmail.com Volume 3, Issue 1, January February 2014 ISSN 2278-6856

Computational Intelligence Approaches For Manipulating Vagueness Petroleum Data


1

Senan A. Ghallab , 2N.L.BAdr, 3Abdel Badeeh Salem and 4M.F Tolba,


1,2,3,4

Ain Shams University, Faculty of Computer and Information Sciences, Egypt

Abstract: Crude oil is the term for "unprocessed" oil, the


stuff that comes out of the ground. It is also known as petroleum. This paper presents an overview of the computational intelligence techniques and approaches for crude oil prediction during recent years. This survey provides a better understanding of the different computational intelligence approaches for manipulating vagueness petroleum data. The results show that different intelligent approaches are used on crude oil prediction; all intelligent technique within kernel methods depends on dataset and weights. The most commonly used are Neural Network, Fuzzy system and Support Vector Machine. These techniques have a better performance over the other approaches in the processes of oil prediction, PVT, price, oil production and other fields.

Keywords: Intelligent techniques, Crude Oil, Prediction.

1. Introduction
Crude oil is a fossil fuel, meaning that it was made naturally from decaying plants and animals living in ancient seas millions of years ago, most places you can find crude oil were once sea beds, vary in color, from clear to tar-black, and in viscosity, from water to almost solid [1]. Several studies have been performed on the data of crude oil in order to prove that the crude oil is predictable. There are more types of prediction: Traditional time series prediction, Neural Networks, Support Vector Machine and Case Based Reasoning [2]. On other hand, crude oil usually found underground but can also be found above ground in oil seeps or tar pits. Crude oil is used to produce fuel for cars, trucks, airplanes, boats and trains. It is also used for a wide variety of other products including asphalt for roads, lubricants for all kinds of machines, plastics for toys, bottles, food wrap and computers. Intelligent system is the system within artificial intelligence. Many intelligent system are use to produce the crude oil. An intelligent system on crude oil field as a new technology aims to build new technique for crude oil prediction is the central goal of this survey. This survey tries to build general idea about tow central scientific items which are an intelligent system and prediction technique. Prediction represents the sensitive process that uses many theories and functions to produce detecting results. Since the beginning of discover crude oil, there are increase of searches about using intelligent systems for crude oil exportation, production and Volume 3, Issue 1 January February 2014

prediction. Using new technology through update an intelligent system aims to increase the ability of discovering crude oil and increase sources of energy around the world. Prediction of crude oil by discovered and updated an intelligent system through use many techniques and computer technology. The process of crude oil prediction through an intelligent approaches corresponding to the change of crude oil properties provided by a group of experienced engineers. While the techniques output variables were dened as oil product qualities, the built ANN model can be applied on predicting [3]. Over the last decade, related searches declares that NNs have been most widely used and shown better performance over other approaches in many cases , conceptually, other searches used other computing techniques to provide the prediction processes [4]. This approach tries to compare and prove scientifically which effective technique to achieve which most that approaches used within accurate results on crude oil domain [5].

2. Literature Review
Many studies are approved, more than one intelligent technique which is represented on crude oil domain, specially, on crude oil prediction processes. Since the crude oil was firstly introduced, many have attempted to predict the crude oil using various computational techniques such as Neural Networks, Fuzzy Neural Network [6], and Support Vector Machines, Case-based Reasoning, Gray model and other techniques [7]. Some of searches are using Grey model, Gray-Markov model and curve algorithms for crude oil. The world's first commercial oil well was drilled in Poland in 1853. Oil exploration developed in many parts of the world with the Russian Empire, particularly the Branobel company in Azerbaijan (Asia's first modern borehole oil production began in 1848. Today, about 90% of vehicular fuel needs are met by oil. Petroleum also makes up 40% of total energy consumption in the United States, but is responsible for only 1% of electricity generation. Petroleum's worth as a portable, dense energy source powering the vast majority of vehicles and as the base of many industrial chemicals makes it one of the world's most important commodities [ 8]. On other hand, viability of the oil commodity is Page 284

International Journal of Emerging Trends & Technology in Computer Science (IJETTCS)


Web Site: www.ijettcs.org Email: editor@ijettcs.org, editorijettcs@gmail.com Volume 3, Issue 1, January February 2014 ISSN 2278-6856
controlled by several key parameters, number of vehicles in the world competing for fuel, quantity of oil exported to the world market. More than forty published papers between years (2001, 2013) are retrieved; there are 27 published researches which are concern of crude oil processes. Most intelligent techniques are uses computing functions: (ANN), Fuzzy Systems (Logic, Set), and SVM [9]. Analysis data of crude oil are use on many techniques, such as CBR and other. The applications simulate more than one type of computing techniques which are can use on predict in crude oil field such as: Advanced Neural Network ( Back propagations ,SOM and other ), Fuzzy system (FNN, Ensemble Fuzzy, and Type 2 Fuzzy) and Support Vector Machine ( SVR, SL-SVM , ClusterSVM and other) [10,11,12]. Figure (1) displays the numerous computing intelligence techniques which are used on crude oil domain, especially on prediction process within the kernel methods. It shows there are three intelligent techniques which are: Artificial Neural Network (BackPropagation), Support Vector Machine (ClusterSVM) and Fuzzy Systems (Fuzzy Set) [13]. A prediction or forecast is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge. While there are much overlap between prediction and forecast, a prediction may be a statement that some outcome is expected, while a forecast may cover a range of possible outcomes. There are more types of prediction [15]: - Traditional time series prediction This type of prediction concern of Traditional statistical models is widely used in economics for time series prediction. - Neural Networks It has been shown that NNs offer the ability to predict different fields directions more accurately than other existing techniques. The ability of NNs to discover non-linear relationships between the training input/output pairs makes them ideal for modeling non-linear dynamic systems. - Support Vector Machine Support Vector Machine (SVM) based on the statistical learning theory, SVM is a very specific type of learning algorithms characterized by the capacity control of the decision function. - Case Based Reasoning Organizations have collective knowledge and expertise they have built up from ancient times. This knowledge can be captured and stored using Case Based Reasoning (CBR). CBR is a reasoning technique that reuses past cases to find a solution to the new problem. The applications on crude oil domain are collected with computer techniques explains that the fields which are proven that approaches are: crude oil prediction, PVT, price and other, obviously, crude oil prediction is the most widely searches domain, shown on figure (3).
6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Figure 1 Computing techniques on crude oil domain The techniques which are used on crude oil prediction domain are differ from one to another according to the goal and the dataset, most techniques focus on prediction, price, prediction and other, as shown as fig(2) [14].

Crude oil Prediction P.V.T

Oil Pruduction ,Price and other fields

Figure 3 Computing techniques with crude oil Through review many systems for crude oil prediction, it seems that there are many search area on crude oil prediction need for discussion and solve the paradox on these areas [16]. Furthermore, the different intelligent system within techniques used to predict of crude oil availability on the same field, conceptually, using new Page 285

Figure 2 Related processes of crude oil domain Volume 3, Issue 1 January February 2014

International Journal of Emerging Trends & Technology in Computer Science (IJETTCS)


Web Site: www.ijettcs.org Email: editor@ijettcs.org, editorijettcs@gmail.com Volume 3, Issue 1, January February 2014 ISSN 2278-6856
expert system achieve prediction process with the same techniques [17]. In table (2), it displays that the application of crude oil price prediction, this domain contains different kernel methods used on crude oil price prediction such as FuzzyEnsemble, RMSE, MAPE, SVM-Cluster and other techniques. Furthermore, the results shows that there are differences on prediction results into intelligent techniques, every technique achieve different prediction value. The best results appear on ClusterSVM. On other hand, fuzzy ensemble and achieve quite highly result, depends on petroleum dataset.

3. Results and Discussion


On table (1){A,B,C,D}, prediction on crude oil domain divided into four parts: Crude oil production, price , PVT and other prediction fields on other fields based on gravity, viscosity and climate [18,19]. There is more than one observation within approaches techniques [20-30]: FNN (0.990), BPNN (0.06781), ClusterSVM (27.43), Type2 Fuzzy (0.9894), Fuzzy Ensemble (0.8681), Grey systems (93.86 %), SVM (0.282), ANN (0.000678) and Grey-Markov Model within 94.07%. To analysis the data through software that explains the best result within best used technique on crude oil prediction is BPNN. More discussion about the computational techniques which are used to Manipulating Vagueness Petroleum Data as the following: 1. Most intelligent techniques used on crude oil prediction field. 2. The accurate result on FNN technique represented by (Fuzzy ensemble and type-2 Fuzzy Logic) kernel method, whereas, SVM represented by (ClusterSVM), that showed on time series prediction. 3. Most intelligent techniques are used on crude oil prediction field. 4. Gray model and Gray-Markov model are use on production field. 5. Artificial intelligence represented on crude oil prediction field through expert systems processes. 6. The dataset are collected through distinct oil sources. Eventually, tables (1-4) display the survey comparison and evaluation between different intelligent machine approaches and kernel algorithms which used into petroleum prediction domain, as follow: - Table (1), display the application of crude oil prediction within production domain, it displays the results of prediction process. In addition, the kernel methods which used are: Grey system, Markov model, RBF and ANN.

- Table (3), display the application of crude oil PVT domain, Fuzzy neural network and support vector machine are used.

Table 1 Crude oil prediction production applications Volume 3, Issue 1 January February 2014

Support vector machine and neurofuzzy systems are used to predict crude oil properties such as pressure, volume and temperature. The results show that SVM achieve more accurate and better results than other intelligence techniques which used on the same field, used the same petroleum dataset. Conceptually, there are other intelligent techniques which using other techniques that approve on petroleum prediction field, the researches which are discussed are achieved more precision and efficiency than other intelligent kernel methods (i.e. intelligent technique algorithms). Eventually, in table (4), display the application of crude oil prediction within related domain based on gravity, viscosity and climate. In addition, Fuzzy-type2 Fuzzy and BPNN and different expert systems are used. The results of this type of prediction show that there are multiple intelligent techniques used to support petroleum prediction domain. All these techniques produce accurate results, the difference on the techniques usage depends on Page 286

International Journal of Emerging Trends & Technology in Computer Science (IJETTCS)


Web Site: www.ijettcs.org Email: editor@ijettcs.org, editorijettcs@gmail.com Volume 3, Issue 1, January February 2014 ISSN 2278-6856
dataset and knowledge experts. Knowledge validation represents pre-testing of petroleum prediction results. In addition, prediction performance creates a resource for the evaluation process. The measurement of the predictive results of has the ability to represent through multievaluation functions, with different petroleum data from distinct source. Furthermore, evaluation of prediction performance executed through different functions, Gaussian, linear and other. Accuracy is defined as the agreement between a measured quantity and the true value of that quantity. Every oilfield prediction result affects on system accuracy and performance. The overall systems accuracy is given by the component with the worst accuracy. Table 4 Other crude oil prediction [3] KaijianHe, Kin KeungLai, JeromeYen , Morphological Component Analysis based Hybrid Approach for Prediction of Crude Oil Price, Proceeding of Third International Joint Conference on Computational Science and Optimization , pp:223-228, 2010. [4] Jing Zhang , Interweave Neural Networks with Evolutionary Algorithms, Cellular Computing, Bayesian Learning and Ensemble Learning , Proceeding of International Conference on Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering , pp: 65-68, 2009. [5] Briones, M.F., Corpoven, S.A ,Rojas, G.A., Martinez, E.R.:Application of Neural Network in the Prediction of Reservoir Hydrocarbon Mixture Composition from Production Data,SPE 28598,September 1994. [6] Paul D. Yoo, Maria H. Kim, Tony Jan ,Machine Learning Techniques and Use of Event Information for Stock Market Prediction: A Survey and Evaluation , Proceedings of the 2005 International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation, and International Conference Intelligent Agents, Web Technologies and Internet Commerce (CIMCA-IAWTIC05) , pp: 1-7, 2005. [7] H.M. Goda, and H.R. Behrenbruch, "Use of artificial intelligence techniques for predicting irreducible water saturation in Australian hydrocarbons basins," Society of Petroleum Engineers Asia Pacific Oil & Gas Conference and Exhibition, Jakarta, Indonesia, 2007. [8] Mao Qianjun , Liu Xiaoyan , Application of Solar heating crude oil for the interchange station in Daqing Oilfield, Proceeding of International Conference on Intelligent System Design and Engineering Application , 2010. [9] Jingwen Tian Qian Feng , Modeling of Oil and Water Migration Based on Support Vector Machine , Proceeding of International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Security , pp: 244-249, 2008. [10] Fatai Adesina Anifowose Abdulazeez Abdulraheem , A Functional Networks-Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Hybrid Model for the Prediction of Porosity and Permeability of Oil and Gas Reservoirs , Proceeding of second International Conference on Computational Intelligence, Modelling and Simulation , pp: 193-198 , 2009. [11] Yukun Bao et al An Comparative Study of Multi-step-ahead Prediction for Crude Oil Price with Support Vector Regression , in the proceeding of The Fourth International Joint Conference on Computational Sciences and Optimization (CSO), pp:230-233, 2011. Page 287

4. Conclusion
In this paper, we examined recent developments in crude oil prediction models by comparing various crude oil intelligent techniques. We found that NNs (BPNN) offer the most cases use in petroleum prediction domains; otherwise, Fuzzy system achieve the best prediction results on intelligent systems that depends on dataset. On other hand, SVM has the ability to predict crude oil directions more accurately than other existing techniques.

References
[1] Lean Yu , Kin Keung Lai , Shouyang Wang , and Kaijian He ,Oil Price Forecasting with an EMD-Based Multiscale Neural Network Learning Paradigm,Proceeding of ICCS, pp:926-932 , 2007. [2] Hanh H.Nguyen, Christine W.Chan ,Applications of data analysis techniques for oil production prediction, Proceeding of Engineering Applications of Articial Intelligence, pp:549558 ,2005.

Volume 3, Issue 1 January February 2014

International Journal of Emerging Trends & Technology in Computer Science (IJETTCS)


Web Site: www.ijettcs.org Email: editor@ijettcs.org, editorijettcs@gmail.com Volume 3, Issue 1, January February 2014 ISSN 2278-6856
[12] SUN Yong-bo et al , SVM-based Oil Security Pre-warning , in the proceeding of Modelling, Simulation and Optimization, Pp: 55-59,2008. [13] Jinlan Liu, Yin Bai, Bin Li: A New Approach to Forecast Crude Oil Price Based on Fuzzy Neural Network, in the proceeding of FSKD, pp: 273-277,2007. [14] Paul D. Yoo, Maria H. Kim, Tony Jan ,Machine Learning Techniques and Use of Event Information for Stock Market Prediction: A Survey and Evaluation , Proceedings of the 2005 International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation, and International Conference Intelligent Agents, Web Technologies and Internet Commerce (CIMCA-IAWTIC05) , pp: 1-7, 2005. [15] Wu Qunli , Hao Ge , Cheng Xiaodong, Crude Oil Price Forecasting with an , Improved Model Based on Wavelet Transform and RBF Neural Network , Proceeding of International Forum on Information Technology and Application , pp: 231-234, 2009. [16] Adel H. Naji, M.R. Janardhana and K.K. Sharma , Sub-surface Structure and Oil and Gas Migration in the Qamar Gulf, Eastern Yemen Based on Gravity Anomalies , Proceeding of AI ,pp: 11-17 , 2009. [17] S.f et al, Troubleshooting of crude oil desalination plant using fuzzy expert system ,in the proceeding of KISR, Pp:55-58, 2011. [18] A. Majid Awan and Mohd. Noor Md. Sap, A Framework for Predicting Oil-Palm Yield from Climate Data , in the international journal of information and mathematical sciences , pp:111-118 , 2007. [19] O. Omole et al , PREDICTION OF NIGERIAN CRUDE OIL VISCOSITY USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK , in the proceeding of Petroleum & Coal , pp:181-188 , 2010. [20] Kaan Yetilmezsoy et al , Modeling Water-inOil Emulsion Formation Using Fuzzy Logic , in the proceeding of Emergencies Science and Technology Division, Environment , pp:1-25 ,2011. [21] M.H.Wang ,C.P.Hung , A Novel grey model for the prediction of trend of dissolved gases in oil-flled power apparatus, Proceeding of Electric Power Systems Research, pp:53-58 , 2003. [22] Shaghayegh Kordnoori , Hamidreza Mostafaei, GREY MARKOV MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORT IN IRAN, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL Of ACADEMIC RESEARCH, 2011. Volume 3, Issue 1 January February 2014 [23] M. A. Kaboudan et al ,Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm, in EnergyEconomics ,pp: 2623 2635, 2008. [24] Lean Yu, Shouyang Wang, Kin Keung Lai, An EMD-Based Neural Network Ensemble Learning Model for World Crude Oil Spot Price Forecasting., in the proceeding of Soft Computing Applications in Business 2008: Pp:261-271, 2009. [25] Jingwen Tian Qian Feng , Modeling of Oil and Water Migration Based on Support Vector Machine, Proceeding of International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Security , pp:244-248 , 2008. [26] Abdolreza Moghadassi, Fahime Parvizian, SayedMohsen Hossein , A New Approach Based on Artificial Neural Networks for Prediction of High Pressure Vapor-liquid Equilibrium , Proceeding of Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, Pp:1851-1862, 2009. [27] Jun Xie Minghui Lu Huizhen Liang , The Research and Application of BP Network Tracking Model for Forecasting oil well yield , IEEE Pacific-Asia Workshop on Computational Intelligence and Industrial Application , 2008. [28] Adnan Khashman , Nnamdi I. Nwulu , Intelligent Prediction of Crude Oil Price Using Support Vector Machines , Proceeding of 9th IEEE International Symposium on Applied Machine Intelligence and Informatics , pp: 165-169 , 2011. [29] Xinyu Geng , et al , Study on Oil Drilling Prediction Based on Improved FNN Method, Proceeding of International Conference on Computational and Information Sciences , pp:450-453 , 2010. [30] Jun Xie, Minghui Lu, Huizhen Liang, Peng Lin , The Research and Application of BP Network Tracking Model for Forecasting oil well yield, Proceeding of IEEE Pacific-Asia Workshop on Computational Intelligence and Industrial Application, pp:18-22 , 2008. Senan A. Ghallab PhD external student, in Information system department, Faculty of computer and information science, Ain shams university, Egypt.
Dr. Nagwa Badr received the B.S. degrees in Computer Science in 1996, and PhD 2000-2003, in Software engineering and distributed system, Liverpool John moorse university, U.K. Postdoctoral in Glasgow University, U.K 2003-

Page 288

International Journal of Emerging Trends & Technology in Computer Science (IJETTCS)


Web Site: www.ijettcs.org Email: editor@ijettcs.org, editorijettcs@gmail.com Volume 3, Issue 1, January February 2014 ISSN 2278-6856
2006. She now assistant Professor, head of information

system department, Faculty of computer and information science, Ain shams university, Egypt. Prof. Dr. Abdel-Badeeh M Salem is a Professor of Computer Science since 1989 at Ain Shams University, Egypt. His research includes intelligent computing, knowledge-based systems, biomedical informatics, and intelligent e-learning. He has published around 250 papers in refereed journals and conferences. He has been involved in more than 400 conferences and workshops as a Keynote Speaker, Scientific Program Committee, Organizer and Session Chair. Prof. Dr. Mohamed Tolba was the X-Vice President of Ain Shams More than 300 publications in the fields of University in 2004-2006. Dr. Tolba was the first Dean of the Faculty of Computer and Information Sciences, Ain Shams University. He has AI Image Processing and Scientific Computing. He has been involved in more than 400 conferences and workshops as a Keynote Speaker, Scientific Program Committee, Organizer and Session Chair.

Volume 3, Issue 1 January February 2014

Page 289