Colorados Economy in

Context
Ryan McMaken
Colorado Division of Housing

Jan-13
Jul-13

Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12

Jul-10
Jan-11

Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10

Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08

Jul-06
Jan-07

2200000

Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06

Jan-04
Jul-04

Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03

Jul-01
Jan-02

Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01

2900000

Employment and Labor Force in Colorado

2800000

2700000

2600000

2500000

2400000

2300000
labor force

employment

2100000

Sep-13

May-13

Jan-13

US

Sep-12

-6

May-12

Colorado

Jan-12

-5

Sep-11

May-11

Jan-11

Sep-10

May-10

Jan-10

Sep-09

May-09

Jan-09

Sep-08

May-08

Jan-08

Sep-07

May-07

Jan-07

Payroll Employment Growth Rates, by %

-1

-2

-3

-4

-7

13

12

Jan 07
Mar07
May07
July07
Sep07
Nov07
Jan08
Mar08
May08
Jul08
Sep08
Nov08
Jan09
Mar09
May09
Jul09
Sep09
Nov09
Jan10
Mar10
May10
July10
Sept1
Nov10
Jan11
Mar11
May11
July11
Sep11
Nov11
Jan12
Mar12
May12
Jul12
Sep12
Nov12
Jan13
Mar13
May13
Jul13
Sept1
Nov13

Metro unemployment rates in Colorado, by %

Colorado Springs

Denver-Aurora

Grand Junction

11
Greeley

10
Fort Collins-Loveland

Pueblo

-1

Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13

3-month change in index

1.5

0.5

-0.5

Colorado

US

-1.5

-2

January 2006
April 2006
July 2006
October 2006
January 2007
April 2007
July 2007
October 2007
January 2008
April 2008
July 2008
October 2008
January 2009
April 2009
July 2009
October 2009
January 2010
April 2010
July 2010
October 2010
January 2011
Apr 2011
July 2011
Oct 2011
January12
Apr12
Jul12
Oct12
Jan13
Apr13
Jul13
Oct13

4000
3500
3000
2500
Bankruptcy cases filed in Colorado

2000
1500
1000
500
0

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
January 2008
March 2008
May 2008
July 2008
September
November
January 2009
March 2009
May 2009
July 2009
September
November
January 2010
March 2010
May 2010
July 2010
September
November
January 2011
Mar 2011
May 2011
July 2011
Sept 2011
Nov11
January12
Mar12
May12
Jul12
Sep12
Nov12
Jan13
Mar13
May13
Jul13
Sep13

YOY percent change in bankruptcy filings in Colorado

New Household Formation in Colorado

80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

60000

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Annual building permit totals

Multifamily

Single-family

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

Net new units added per year

25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
-15000
-20000
-25000

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

-30000

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Proportion of all units that are multifamily units

0.500

0.450

0.400

0.350

0.300

0.250

0.200

0.150

0.100

0.050

0.000

72.0

70.0

2005-1
2005-2
2005-3
2005-4
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4

Homeownership rate - Colo vs. US

74.0

Colo

US

Metro Den

68.0

66.0

64.0

62.0

60.0

58.0

56.0

54.0

Average rents in Colorado metros

1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400

Metro Den

Colo Spr

Ft Coll/Loveland

Grand Junct

Greeley

Pueblo

13q4

13q2

12q4

12q2

11q4

11q2

10q4

10q2

09q4

09q2

08q4

08q2

07q4

07q2

06q4

06q1

05q1

04q1

03q1

02q1

300

YOY % change in Front Range average rent

Denver metro
Colorado Springs

20

Ft Collins-Loveland
15

Grand Junction
Greeley

10

Pueblo

5
0
-5
-10

13q4

13q3

13q2

13q1

12q4

12q3

12q2

12q1

11q4

11q3

11q2

11q1

10q4

10q3

10q2

10q1

09q4

09q3

09q2

09q1

08q4

08q3

08q2

08q1

-15

5
4
3
2

1
0
01q1
01q3
02q1
02q3
03q1
03q3
04q1
04q3
05q1
05q3
06q1
06q3
06q4
07q1
07q2
07q3
07q4
08q1
08q2
08q3
08q4
09q1
09q2
09q3
09q4
10q1
10q2
10q3
10q4
11q1
11q2
11q3
11q4
12q1
12q2
12q3
12q4
13q1
13q2
13q3
13q4

17

Denver metro multifamily vacancy rates (by %)

16
15
14

13
12
11
10
9

8
7
6

Denver Metro

Colo Springs

Fort Collins/Loveland

Greeley

17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
01q1
01q3
02q1
02q3
03q1
03q3
04q1
04q3
05q1
05q3
06q1
06q3
06q4
07q1
07q2
07q3
07q4
08q1
08q2
08q3
08q4
09q1
09q2
09q3
09q4
10q1
10q2
10q3
10q4
11q1
11q2
11q3
11q4
12q1
12q2
12q3
12q4
13q1
13q2
13q3
13q4

Denver metro multifamily vacancy rates (by %)

Denver Metro

Grand Junction

Pueblo

13q3

13q1

12q3

12q1

Townhouse

11q3

12

11q1

House

10q3

14

10q1

09q3

09q1

16

08q3

08q1

07q3

07q1

06q3

06q1

05q3

05q1

04q3

04q1

03q3

03q1

Vacancy rate by unit type in metro Denver

18

All units

Condo

10

Average rent by dwelling type

1400

1200

1000

800

600
All units

House

Townhouse

Condo

01
q4
02
q3
03
q2
04
q1
04
q4
05
q3
06
q2
07
q1
07
q4
08
q3
09
q2
10
q1
10
q4
11
q3
12
q2
13
q1
13
q4

400

Year-over-year change in avg. rent - metro Denver

15

10
5

0
-5
House
Townhouse

-10

Condo

13q2

12q3

11q4

11q1

10q2

09q3

08q4

08q1

07q2

06q3

05q4

05q1

04q2

03q3

02q4

-15

FHFA House Price Index: Estimated using Sales

Prices and Appraisal Data

250

225

200

175

150

Denver-Aurora-Broomfield
Colorado Springs
Ft Collins-Loveland
Greeley
Grand Junction
Pueblo
Boulder

125

2013

2013

2012

2012

2011

2011

2010

2010

2009

2009

2008

2008

2007

2007

2006

2006

2005

2005

2004

2004

2003

2003

2002

2002

100

-25
Sep2013

May2013

Jan2013

Sep2012

May 2012

January 2012

September 2010

May 2011

January 2011

September 2010

May 2010

January 2010

September 2009

May 2009

January 2009

September 2008

May 2008

January 2008

September 2007

May 2007

January 2007

September 2006

May 2006

January 2006

September 2005

May 2005

January 2005

September 2004

May 2004

January 2004

September 2003

May 2003

-10

January 2003

September 2002

May 2002

January 2002

YOY Change in Case-Shiller Home Price Index, by %

20

15

10

-5

Denver
20-City Composite

-15

-20

500

January 2007
March 2007
May 2007
July 2007
September
November
January 2008
March 2008
May 2008
July 2008
September
November
January 2009
March 2009
May 2009
July 2009
September
November
January 2010
March 2010
May 2010
July 2010
September
November
January 2011
March 2011
May 2011
July 2011
Sept 2011
Nov 2011
Jan2012
Mar2012
May2012
July 2012
Sept2012
Nov2012
Jan2013
Mar2013
May2013
Jul2013
Sep2013
Nov2013
Jan2014

Foreclosures in Colorado metropolitan counties

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

Filings
Sales

Annual Releases and Mortgage Rates

800,000

Releases

30-yr fixed conv mortgage

8

700,000

600,000

6
500,000
5
400,000
4
300,000

200,000

100,000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

13/4thQ

13/3rdQ

13/2ndQ

13/1stQ

12/4thQ

12/3rdQ

12/2ndQ

12/1st Q

11/4th Q

11/3rd Q

11/2nd Q

11/1st Q

10/4th Q

10/3rd Q

10/2nd Q

10/1st Q

09/4th Q

09/3rd Q

09/2nd Q

09/1st Q

08/4th Q

08/3rd Q

08/2nd Q

08/1st Q

Releases and Mortgage rates

120,000
7

Total releases

30 yr conv.fixed rate

100,000
6

80,000
4

60,000
3

40,000
2

20,000
1

0
0

For More:
See DivisionofHousing.com