Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
DOI 10.1007/s12303-014-0002-1
ⓒ The Association of Korean Geoscience Societies and Springer 2014
in mid-1900s. The chapter talks about the slip rates on faults chapter eight where author says it was party motivated by
and how geologist uncover such measurements and then it the plate tectonic revolution, wherein vigorous advances in
introduces the paleoseismology development and how it understating of earthquakes and other tectonic process occurred
helps to unravel the past earthquakes histories on faults. via plate tectonic theory. She writes that in United States
The author spends a while in distinguishing the earthquake some eminent scientists were very enthusiastic about it and
prediction, which has a narrow time frame, from earthquake influenced the government for more funds and asked for a
forecasting, which usually involves a longer time scale. Seismic special policy on earthquake prediction science and they
gap is presented, which simply means that a particular fault somehow managed to convince the authorities. Also, this
segment on a major fault is expected to break in a timespan came at a time when Chinese claimed to have successfully
of say 150 years but has not shown such a movement in say predicted the magnitude 7.3 Haicheng earthquake in 1975,
300 years, therefore, soon, it is expected to host an earthquake which was not really true (read above). Thus, by the end of
and is overdue for that. So, though, conceptually earthquakes 1970s, U.S. science policy had hazard reduction onboard.
should follow a pattern, however, it is not always true and They also established an official body for evaluating earth-
a number of earthquakes occur without any sign of incoming quake predictions. Thus the chapters from 9 to 16 are exclu-
and that is worrying and troublesome for any kind of prediction sively devoted to develop an understanding about the science
or forecast that may come from scientists. of prediction and its development over time. Hough makes
In the fourth chapter the author introduces Hayward fault, it clear that past predictions have utterly failed to convince
which is a branch-off of the main truck of famous San Andreas the scientific robustness of any such effort. Thus, the busi-
Fault. The tremendous scientific work on this fault has led to an ness of prediction could not flourish for long and is therefore
understanding that it hosts big earthquakesat somewhat reg- replaced by loose term like “forecasting”, which is more
ular pace (~every 140 years) and thus the next one is overdue. sensible that ambitious prediction. Also, the interaction of
Since, the last big one occurred in 1868, therefore, the next scientists with public/media is highlighted, particularly in
was due in 2008. However, it did not recur, again suggesting chapter fourteen, wherein the involvement of scientific commu-
that seismic clocks are not always regular and could mean that nity in getting the right message across the public and other
the average recurrence on faults may not always work. Some- stake holders is discussed. The author maintains that it is often
times earthquakes may fill the big gap by a bigger event! hard to ring a bell and at a right time, however, concrete
In the next chapter the author draws distinction between efforts should be made to clear the doubts and it is an obligation
forecasting and predicting and discusses the various precur- on scientific community to not mislead the people about any
sors that have been used in the past. Her painstaking work disaster. However, she recognizes that there are always some
clears the doubts about prediction and why it is hard to come bad elements in science who will try to use an opportunity
by. Then in the following chapter, author discuses a well- to grab headlines, however, the scientific vigor, enthusiasm,
known Chinese example of a so called successful prediction sincerity and integrity will always overpower the oblivion.
of the 7.3 magnitude (1975) earthquake that occurred in Hai- Towards the end, the author identifies that with the current
cheng. However, Hugh claims that this prediction hype was scientific understanding the earthquake prediction remains
partly manufactured and a year later, in 1976, another major unpredictable; however, there is a scope for forecasting and a
earthquake of magnitude 7.8 hit the city of Tangshan in Chi- hope for a better understanding of earthquake prediction science.
naagain and killed 250,000 people without any sign or warning This book is sparkling, entertaining, and a good read and
by the authorities to evacuate people. The Haicheng earthquake apart from a few typos, it is a rocking peace of literature. It
prediction was primarily based on an increase in small earth- keeps a delicate balance between the genuine scientific efforts
quakes, an unusual 2.5 mm rise in elevation and tilting of the and the difficulties, which scientists face in prediction science.
ground for nine months near the fault, and changes in ground- At the same breath, the author acknowledges the presence
water levels, and local magnetic field. Plus, there was an of some scientific black-sheeps, which behave as crackpots
appreciable strange behavior of animals, which helped in pre- and opportunists. However, in my opinions this book circles,
diction. Thus, it was more of luck than science and this applied exclusively, around examples from United States, which should
to most of the predictions made in the past. The Haicheng have ideally included more examples around the globe. Also,
curiosity remains with the author for a while and in the next some colorful illustrations (e.g., Google maps) and updated
chapter she tries to understand the role of fluids in earth- fault maps should have been very helpful.
quakes. Since, fluids (particularly, water) is very important
in subduction systems and plays a key role in fracturing of (September 2013)
the crust and melting of rocks, it is therefore important to Afroz A. Shah
understand if fluids can influence earthquake activity, how- Senior Lecturer
Department of Applied Geology, Curtin University
ever, this process is not really well understood and needs to 98009, Miri, Sarawak, Malaysia
be investigated further. E-mail: afroz.shah@curtin.edu.my
The early earthquake prediction optimism is discussed in