Global warming is the talk of the town in this century, with its detrimental effects already being brought

to limelight by the recurring events of massive floods, annihilating droughts and ravaging cyclones throughout the globe. The average global temperatures are higher than they have ever been during the past millennium, and the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have crossed all previous records. A scrutiny of the past records of 100 years indicates that India figures in the first 10 in the world in terms of fatalities and economic losses in a variety of climatic disasters.

Before embarking on a detailed analysis of Global warming and its impacts on Indian climate, we should first know what climate, green house effect and global warming actually mean. CLIMATE The climate is defined as the general or average weather conditions of a certain region, including temperature, rainfall, and wind. The earths climate is most affected by latitude, the tilt of the Earth's axis, the movements of the Earth's wind belts, and the difference in temperatures of land and sea, and topography. Human activity, especially relating to actions relating to the depletion of the ozone layer, is also an important factor. The climate system is a complex, interactive system consisting of the atmosphere, land surface, snow and ice, oceans and other bodies of water, and living things. GREEN HOUSE EFFECT Green House effect is the phenomenon whereby the earth's atmosphere traps solar radiation, and is mediated by the presence in the atmosphere of gases such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, and methane that allow incoming sunlight to pass through, but absorb the heat radiated back from the earth's surface. Thus the Green house gases (GHGs) provide a blanketing effect in the lower strata of the

earths atmosphere, and this blanketing effect is being enhanced because of the human activities like burning of fossil fuels etc. GLOBAL WARMING Global warming is defined as an increase in the average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere, especially a sustained increase great enough to cause changes in the global climate. The term global warming is synonymous with Enhanced green house effect, implying an increase in the amount of green house gases in the earths atmosphere, leading to entrapment of more and more solar radiations, and thus increasing the overall temperature of the earth. EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE EARTHS CLIMATE

Detailed researches of climatic events of the past 150 years have revealed that the temperatures have risen all over the globe, with the warming occurring in two phases. The first phase was from 1919 to 1940, with an average temperature gain of 0.35C, and the second phase was from 1970 to the present, exhibiting temperature gains of 0.55C. Records show that the past 25 years have been the warmest time of the past 5 centuries. The global warming has resulted in the warming of the oceans, rising of the sea levels, melting of glaciers, and diminished snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere.

The above map illustrates an analysis conducted by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City, based on temperatures recorded at meteorological stations around the world and satellite data over the oceans. The map illustrates how much warmer temperatures were in the decade (2000-2009) compared to average temperatures recorded between 1951 and 1980. The Arctic regions exhibited the most severe warming as depicted

in red color. The blue colored areas show the lower than normal temperatures, and thus are very few. The recent catastrophic climatic events like the massive floods in Pakistan and India, the Hurricane Katrina in the United States, the prolonged droughts in Australia, China, Pakistan, India and Texas, are all the results of increased temperatures due to global warming. During the 21st century, climatic disasters occurred five times as frequently and killed or affected seventy times as many people. Between 2000 and 2004, an average of 26 climatic disasters was reported each year. Thus, the immense geological changes will continue their destruction unabated if steps to mitigate global warming are not taken. IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE CLIMATE OF INDIA

AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PROFILE OF INDIA India, the second most populous country of the world with a population over 1.2 billion, is a large country in South Asia. India lies to the north of the equator between 6 44' and 35 30' north latitude and 68 7' and 97 25' east longitude. It shares a coast line of 7517 km with the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. It has land boundaries with Pakistan, China, Nepal, Bhutan, Burma and Bangladesh. The Indian economy is considered as one of the fastest growing major economies. However, the country is plagued by the climatic disasters that continue to wreak havoc on its economy. As a result, in spite of the leaping economical progress, the majority of the people of India continue to live in poverty, with malnutrition and diseases corroding the society. CLIMATE OF INDIA Being such a huge country, India exhibits a wide diversity of temperatures; from the freezing cold winters in the Himalayas to the scorching heat of the Thar Desert. The above

two regions play a very significant role in controlling the weather of India, making it warmer than to be expected with its latitude. The Himalayas participate in this warming by preventing the cold winds from blowing in, and the Thar desert attracts the summer monsoon winds, which are responsible for making the majority of the monsoon season of India. However, the majority of the regions can be considered climatically tropical. MONSOON SEASON IN INDIA The climate of India is dominated by the monsoon season, which is the most important season of India, providing 80% of the annual rainfall. The season extends from June to September with an average annual rainfall between 7501,500 mm across the region. The monsoon of India is regarded as the most productive wet season on the earth. Definition of Monsoon Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes Monsoon as a tropical and subtropical seasonal reversal in both the surface winds and associated precipitation, caused by differential heating between a continental-scale land mass and the adjacent ocean. As explained above, the Himalayas and the Thar Desert are important forces controlling this season. The monsoon severity has increased in the last few decades due to the process of global warming, leading to the dreaded floods in India. The figure below shows the major climatic regions of India, displaying the major portions to be monsoon prone.

Global Warming FAQ

What is Global Warming? Global Warming is the increase of Earth's average surface temperature due to effect of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels or from deforestation, which trap heat that would otherwise escape from Earth. This is a type of greenhouse effect.

Is global warming, caused by human activity, even remotely plausible? Earth's climate is mostly influenced by the first 6 miles or so of the atmosphere which contains most of the matter making up the atmosphere. This is really a very thin layer if you think about it. In the book The End of Nature, author Bill McKibbin tells of walking three miles to from his cabin in the Adirondack's to buy food. Afterwards, he realized that on this short journey he had traveled a distance equal to that of the layer of the atmosphere where almost all the action of our climate is contained. In fact, if you were to view Earth from space, the principle part of the atmosphere would only be about as thick as the skin on an onion! Realizing this makes it more plausible to suppose that human beings can change the climate. A look at the amount of greenhouse gases we are spewing into the atmosphere (see below), makes it even more plausible. What are the Greenhouse Gases? The most significant greenhouse gas is actually water vapor, not something produced directly by humankind in significant amounts. However, even slight increases in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) can cause a substantial increase in temperature. Why is this? There are two reasons: First, although the concentrations of these gases are not nearly as large as that of oxygen and nitrogen (the main constituents of the atmosphere), neither oxygen or nitrogen are greenhouse gases. This is because neither has more than two atoms per molecule (i.e. their molecular forms are O2 and N2, respectively), and so they lack the internal vibrational modes that molecules with more than two atoms have. Both water and CO2, for example, have these "internal vibrational modes", and these vibrational modes can absorb and reradiate infrared radiation, which causes the greenhouse effect. Secondly, CO2 tends to remain in the atmosphere for a very long time (time scales in the hundreds of years). Water vapor, on the other hand, can easily condense or evaporate, depending on local conditions. Water vapor levels therefore tend to adjust quickly to the prevailing conditions, such that the energy flows from the Sun and re-radiation from the Earth achieve a balance. CO2 tends to remain fairly constant and therefore behave as a controlling factor, rather than a reacting factor. More CO2 means that the balance occurs at higher temperatures and water vapor levels.

How much have we increased the Atmosphere's CO2 Concentration? Human beings have increased the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere by about thirty percent, which is an extremely significant increase, even on inter-glacial timescales. It is believed that human beings are responsible for this because the increase is almost perfectly correlated with increases in fossil fuel combustion, and also due other evidence, such as changes in the ratios of different carbon isotopes in atmospheric CO2 that are consistent with "anthropogenic" (human caused) emissions. The simple fact is, that under "business as usual" conditions, we'll soon reach carbon dioxide
concentrations that haven't been seen on Earth in the last 50 million years.

Combustion of Fossil Fuels, for electricity generation, transportation, and heating, and also the manufacture of cement, all result in the total worldwide emission of about 22 billion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere each year. About a third of this comes from electricity generation, and another third from transportation, and a third from all other sources. This enormous input of CO2 is causing the atmospheric levels of CO2 to rise dramatically. The following graph shows the CO2 levels over the past 160 thousand years (the upper curve, with units indicated on the right hand side of the graph). The current level, and projected increase over the next hundred years if we do not curb emissions, are also shown (the part of the curve which goes way up high, to the right of the current level, is the projected CO2 rise). The projected increase in CO2 is very startling and disturbing. Changes in the Earth's average surface temperature are also shown (the lower curve, with units on the left). Note that it parallels the CO2 level curve very well.

Is the Temperature Really Changing? Yes! As everyone has heard from the media, recent years have consistently been the warmest in hundreds and possibly thousands of years. But that might be a temporary fluctuation, right? To see that it probably isn't, the next graph shows the average temperature in the Northern Hemisphere as determined from many sources, carefully combined, such as tree rings, corals, human records, etc.

These graphs show a very discernable warming trend, starting in about 1900. It might seem a bit surprising that warming started as early as 1900. How is this possible? The reason is that the increase in carbon dioxide actually began in 1800, following the deforestation of much of Northeastern American and other forested parts of the world. The sharp upswing in emissions during the industrial revolution further added to this, leading to a significantly increased carbon dioxide level even by 1900. Thus, we see that Global Warming is not something far off in the future - in fact it predates almost every living human being today. How do we know if the temperature increase is caused by anthropogenic emissions? Computer models strongly suggest that this is the case. The following graphs show that 1) If only natural fluctuations are included in the models (such as the slight increase in solar output that occurred in the first half of the 20th century), then the large warming in the 20th century is not reproduced. 2) If only anthropogenic carbon emissions are included, then the large warming is reproduced, but some of the variations, such as the cooling period in the 1950s, is not reproduced (this cooling trend was thought to be caused by sulfur dioxide emissions from dirty power plants). 3) When both natural and anthropogenic emissions of all types are included, then the temperature evolution of the 20th century is well reproduced.

Is there a connection between the recent drought and climate change? Yes. A recent study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gives strong evidence that global warming was a major factor. Click here for more details. Who studies global warming, and who believes in it? Most of the scientific community, represented especially by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC - www.ipcc.ch), now believes that the global warming effect is real, and many corporations, even including Ford Motor Company, also acknowledge its likelihood. Who are the IPCC? In 1998, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in recognition of the threat that global warming presents to the world. The IPCC is open to all members of the UNEP and WMO and consists of several thousand of the most authoritative scientists in the world on climate

change. The role of the IPCC is to assess the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of humaninduced climate change. It does not carry out new research nor does it monitor climate related data. It bases its assessment mainly on published and peer reviewed scientific technical literature. The IPCC has completed two assessment reports, developed methodology guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, special reports and technical papers. Results of the first assessment (1990--1994): confirmed scientific basis for global warming but concluded that ``nothing to be said for certain yet''. The second assessment (1995), concluded that `` ...the balance suggests a discernable human influence on global climate'', and concluded that, as predicted by climate models, global temperature will likely rise by about 1-3.5 Celsius by the year 2100. The next report, in 2000, suggested, that the climate might warm by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 100 years, which would bring us back to a climate not seen since the age of the dinosaurs. The most recent report, in 2001, concluded that "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities".
Due to these assessments, debate has now shifted away from whether or not global warming is going to occur to, instead, how much, how soon, and with what impacts.

Global Warming Impacts

Many of the following "harbingers" and "fingerprints" are now well under way: 1. Rising Seas--- inundation of fresh water marshlands (the everglades), low-lying cities, and islands with seawater. 2. Changes in rainfall patterns --- droughts and fires in some areas, flooding in other areas. See the section above on the recent droughts, for example! 3. Increased likelihood of extreme events--- such as flooding, hurricanes, etc. 4. Melting of the ice caps --- loss of habitat near the poles. Polar bears are now thought to be greatly endangered by the shortening of their feeding season due to dwindling ice packs. 5. Melting glaciers - significant melting of old glaciers is already observed. 6. Widespread vanishing of animal populations --- following widespread habitat loss. 7. Spread of disease --- migration of diseases such as malaria to new, now warmer, regions. 8. Bleaching of Coral Reefs due to warming seas and acidification due to carbonic acid formation --- One third of coral reefs now appear to have been severely damaged by warming seas.

9. Loss of Plankton due to warming seas --- The enormous (900 mile long) Aleution island ecosystems of orcas (killer whales), sea lions, sea otters, sea urchins, kelp beds, and fish populations, appears to have collapsed due to loss of plankton, leading to loss of sea lions, leading orcas to eat too many sea otters, leading to urchin explosions, leading to loss of kelp beds and their associated fish populations.

Where do we need to reduce emissions?

In reality, we will need to work on all fronts - 10% here, 5% here, etc, and work to phase in new technologies, such as hydrogen technology, as quickly as possible. To satisfy the Kyoto protocol, developed countries would be required to cut back their emissions by a total of 5.2 % between 2008 and 2012 from 1990 levels. Specifically, the US would have to reduce its presently projected 2010 annual emissions by 400 million tons of CO2 . One should keep in mind though, that even Kyoto would only go a little ways towards solving the problem. In reality, much more needs to be done. The most promising sector for near term reductions is widely thought to be coal-fired electricity. Wind power, for example, can make substantial cuts in these emissions in the near term, as can energy efficiency, and also the increased use of high efficiency natural gas generation. The potential impact of efficiency should not be underestimated: A 1991 report to Congress by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming, found that the U.S. could reduce current emissions by 50 percent at zero cost to the economy as a result of full use of cost-effective efficiency improvements. Discussing Global Climate Change: Here is a useful list of facts and ideas: 1. Given the strong scientific consensus, the onus should now be on the producers of CO2 emissions to show that there is not a problem, if they still even attempt to make that claim. Its time to acknowledge that we are, at very least, conducting a very dangerous experiment with Earth's climate. 2. A direct look at the data itself is very convincing and hard to argue with. Ask a skeptical person to look at the data above. The implications are obvious. The best source of data is probably the IPCC reports themselves, which are available at www.ipcc.ch (see, for example, the summaries for policy makers). 3. The recent, record-breaking warm years are unprecedented and statistically significant. It is a fact that they are very statistically unlikely to be a fluctuation (and now we can point to specific side effects from those warm temperatures that appear to have induced recent worldwide drought). 4. Lastly, but perhaps most importantly, whether or not you believe in global warming per se, the fact remains that the carbon dioxide levels are rising

dramatically --- there is no debate about this. If we continue to use fossil fuels in the way we presently do, then the amount of carbon we will release will soon exceed the amount of carbon in the living biosphere. This is bound to have very serious, very negative effects, some of which, such as lowering the pH of the ocean such that coral cannot grow, are already well known.

Response of Government: Develop "Carbon Sequestration" Technology

Many government agencies around the world are very interested in maintaining fossil fuel use, especially coal. It should be noted that US energy use, which is enormous, is increasing, not decreasing. Furthermore, we are not going to run out of coal in the near term (oil may begin to run low sometime after 2010). Methods for reducing carbon emission levels while still burning coal are now investigation by government and industry, as we now discuss. We believe that a major increase in renewable energy use should be achieved to help offset global warming. While there are some US government programs aimed in this direction, there is simply not enough money being spent yet to achieve this goal in a timely manner. A primary goal of many new programs is not to increase renewables, but rather, is to find ways to capture the extra CO2 from electricity generation plants and "sequester" it in the ground, the ocean, or by having plants and soil organisms absorb more of it from the air.

Possible Problems with Carbon "Sequestration"

One of the Carbon sequestration approaches under investigation is the possibility of depositing CO2 extracted from emission streams in large pools on the Ocean bottom. It is possible that such pools will not be stable, and may either erupt to the surface, or diffuse into the ocean and alter the oceans pH. Another scheme under investigation is the idea of stimulating phytoplankton growth on the ocean surface by dusting the surface with iron (the limiting nutrient). This will cause an increased uptake of carbon by the plankton, part of which will find its way to the ocean bottom. Fishing companies are considering using this to increase fish harvests while simultaneously getting credit for carbon sequestration. Serious ecological disruptions could occur, however, especially if this approach is conducted on a sufficiently large scale. Another idea is to stimulate Earth's terrestrial ecosystems to take up more carbon dioxide. While the impacts here are more difficult to ascertain, an important point to note is that these systems are not thought to be able to completely absorb all the extra CO2 . At best, they may be sufficient to help the US stabilize carbon emission rates for a few decades, but even if this is achieved, stabilization of rates are not likely to return the Earth to pre-industrial carbon levels. Worse, biological feedbacks to global warming, such as forest fires, drying soils, rotting permafrost, etc, may

actually greatly accelerate carbon emissions, i.e. we may experience massive carbon de-sequestration. Another major approach under consideration is to pump CO2 into old oil and gas wells. While seemingly attractive, it must be kept in mind that for this to be truly effective, it would have to be done on a world wide scale, include many sources of CO 2 , including many sources which are presently small and widely distributed (such as car emissions, and not just coal plant emissions). All of this CO2 would need to be captured, transported, injected into old wells, and then the wells would need to be sealed and monitored. It is not clear that this would be affordable at all, and that there would be adequate capacity or assurance that CO2 would not leak out in massive quantities. In the worst case scenario, carbon sequestration efforts may simply fail, but also end up being a political tool that is used to seriously delay a transition to renewable energy sources, and also possibly create many new environmental problems problems while prolonging old ones. In the best case scenario, given the truly enormous amount of CO2 we are presently emitting, some sequestration approaches may serve as a useful bridge to curbing emissions while the transition to renewables is being made.
Climate model projections were summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 C (2.0 to 5.2 F) for their lowest emissions [13] scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 C (4.3 to 11.5 F) for their highest. The ranges of these estimates arise from [14][15] the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations. Future climate change and associated impacts will vary from region to region around the [16][17] globe. The effects of an increase in global temperature include a rise in sea levels and a change in the amount and pattern of precipitation, as well as a probable expansion [18] of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic, with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall; ocean acidification; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes. Effects significant to humans include the threat to food [19][20] security from decreasing crop yields and the loss of habitat from inundation. Proposed policy responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, and possible future climate engineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations [21] Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), whose ultimate objective is to prevent [22] dangerous anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) climate change. Parties to the UNFCCC have adopted [23]:10[24][25][26]:9 a range of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to assist in adaptation [23]:13[26]:10[27][28] to global warming. Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are [29] required, and that future global warming should be limited to below 2.0 C (3.6 F) relative to the pre[29][B] [30] industrial level. Reports published in 2011 by the United Nations Environment Programme and

the International Energy Agency suggest that efforts as of the early 21st century to reduce emissions may be inadequate to meet the UNFCCC's 2 C target. Emissions of greenhouse gases grew 2.2% per year between 2000 and 2010, compared with 1.3% per [32] year from 1970 to 2000.

[31]