Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!

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CHAPTER SIX
ESTIMATION
PREPARED BY: NORYANI MUHAMMAD
Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!
1. To identify the use of t-test or z-test procedure in solving
estimation problem.

2. To construct point and interval estimate for mean and
proportion.

3. To determine sample size for mean and proportion.
OBJECTIVES
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Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!
INTRODUCTION
Inference:
Methodologies that allow us to draw conclusions
about population parameter from sample statistic.

There are two procedures for making inferences:
Estimation.
Hypotheses testing
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Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!
6.1 CONSEPT OF ESTIMATION
Estimator : Sample statistic that is being used in estimating population
parameter.
Estimation : Procedure of estimating a population parameter based on
sample statistic.
Estimate : The value of population parameter based on estimator.
p x

,
p ,
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Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!
6.2 POINT & INTERVAL ESTIMATE
Point Estimator:
A single value or a point calculated from sample data for
which we have some expectation to the population value.
Margin of Error:

EXAMPLE
1. An academic performance survey has been done in a university. It is known
that the standard deviation of all students grade point average (GPA) was 0.4.
A sample of nine hundred (900) graduates was randomly selected and
revealed that their mean GPA was 2.7.

(a) What is the point estimate of ?
(b) What is the margin of error associated with the point estimate of ?



x
o 96 . 1
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Test your understanding.
Given = 158 cm, = 6.5 cm, n = 100

Find the point estimate for and the margin of error for this
estimate.
x
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Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!
6.2 POINT & INTERVAL ESTIMATE
Interval Estimator:
An interval within which we would expect to find the true
value of the population parameter. It is also stated as
confidence interval.
confidence level-stated how much confidence we have that
this interval contains the true value of the population
parameter.
Confidence level = (1 )100%
Confidence coefficient = (1 )
Significance level =

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Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!
6.2 POINT & INTERVAL ESTIMATE
EXAMPLE


Confidence level,
(1 )100%
Confidence
coefficient, (1 )
Significance
level,
Critical
z-value
(z/2)
90% 0.9 0.1 1.645
93%
95%
98%
99%
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Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!
INTERVAL ESTIMATION OF A
POPULATION MEAN



Confidence
Interval
Mean
Large Sample
(n30)
known unknown
Small Samples
(n<30)
x
z x o
o
2
=
x
s z x
2
o
=
x
s t x
2
o
=
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EXAMPLES

1. The average zinc concentration recovered from a sample of zinc
measurements in 36 different locations is found to be 2.6 grams per
millilitre. Find the 97% confidence interval for the mean zinc
concentration in the river. Assume that the sample standard deviation is
0.3.

2. A random sample of 10 chocolate energy bars of a certain brand has, on
average, 230 calories with a standard deviation of 15 calories. Construct
a 99% confidence interval for the true mean calorie content of this brand
of energy bar. Assume that the distribution of the calories is
approximately normal.


Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!
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Test your understanding.
Exercise 6.3, (pg 111)

In 64 randomly selected hours of production, the mean and standard deviation
of the number of acceptable pieces produced by an automatic stamping
machine are 1,039 and 146 respectively.

(a) Find the point estimate for the average number of accepting pieces for all
such pieces produced by that automatic stamping.
(b) Construct a 99.2% confidence interval to estimate the average number of
accepting pieces for all such pieces produced by that automatic
stamping.

Exercise 6.5, (pg 112)

You decided to study on average, how much time engineering students spend
to watch television per night. A random sample of 10 students was selected
and the results (in hour) obtained: 2, 1.5, 3, 2, 3.5, 1, 0.5, 3, 2, 4. Find a 95%
confidence interval on the population mean.
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Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!
INTERVAL ESTIMATION OF A
POPULATION PROPORTION


Confidence
Interval
Proportion
p
s z p p

2

o
=
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EXAMPLES

1. A quality study was performed on the manufacturing of Application
Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC). A sample of 1,126 units revealed 114
nonconforming units.

(a) Find the point estimate for the proportion of nonconforming units.
(b) Find the margin of error of the estimation made in (a).
(c) Construct a 97.3% confidence interval for the proportion of non
conforming units.

Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!
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Test your understanding.
Exercise 6.6, (pg 114)

A manufacturer of compact disk players uses a set of comprehensive tests to
access the electrical function of its product. All compact disk players must pass
all tests prior to being sold. A random sample of 500 disk players resulted in 15
failing one or more tests. Find a 96.3% confidence interval for the proportion of
compact disk players from the population that passes all tests.


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Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!
6.3 DETERMINATION OF THE SAMPLE
SIZE
The sample size required to estimate the population mean, with
confident level, with a specified maximum error, given by


OR ;




Proportion



x
z E o
o
2
=
2
2
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
E
z
n
o
o
2
2
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
E
s z
n
o
2
2
2
E
pq z
n
|
.
|

\
|
=
o
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EXAMPLES

1. An efficiency expert wishes to determine the average time that it takes to drill
three holes in a certain metal clamp. How large a sample will he needed to be
95% confident that his sample mean will be within 15 seconds of the true mean?
Assume that it is known from previous studies that = 40 seconds.

2. Suppose that we want to estimate the true proportion of defectives in a
very large shipment of adobe bricks, and we want to be at least 95%
confident that the error is at most 0.04. How large a sample will we need
if:
(a) We have no idea what the true proportion might be.
(b) We know that the true proportion does not exceed 0.12?
Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!
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Excellent does not an accident, but it comes through a hard work!!
Test your understanding.
Exercise 6.7, (pg 115)

The dean of a college wants to use the mean of a random sample to estimate the
average amount of time students take to get from one class to the next, and she
wants to be able to assert with 99% confidence that the error is at most 0.25
minute. If she assumes that the standard deviation is 1.40 minutes, how large a
sample will she have to take?

Exercise 6.8, (pg 116)

A study is to be made to estimate the percentage of citizens in a town who favour
having their water fluoridated.
(a) How large a sample is needed if one wishes to be at least 95% confident
that our estimate is within 1% of the true percentage?
(b) If a random sample of 200 citizens is selected and 114 are found in favour
of having their water fluoridated, how large must the sample be if we
wish to be 96% confident that our sample proportion will be within 0.02
of the true fraction of the citizens?
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-End of Chapter two-
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