Intelligence brief | 19 March 2014

Maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea

Summary
1. Maritime insecurity incorporates a range of criminal activities inclu!ing piracy smuggling an! illegal fishing. 2. "he Gulf of Guinea has recently surpasse! the more infamous Gulf of #!en as the epicentre of maritime insecurity. $. %t is likely that the &nite! States 'ill increase its naval presence in the Gulf of Guinea !uring 2014.
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4. %t is likely that the (& 'ill also participate in an international intervention in the region though this coul! possibly )e stalle!. *. %t is likely that the international community 'ill push +est #frican countries to legislate for the !eployment of arme! security guar!s on their vessels an! agree to greater inter,state colla)oration. -. "he potential conflict of interests )et'een the international community an! shipping companies over arme! guar!s an!.or e/ternal intervention 'ill likely force a consensus approach that 'ill possibly fail to a!!ress the root of the pro)lem. 0. %t is highly likely that the a)ove moves 'ill lea! to a temporary increase in violence in the region. 1. #s such maritime insecurity in the region is likely to increase throughout 2014 an! Benin "ogo an! Guinea,Bissau in particular are likely to 'itness an increase in criminal activities across their territorial 'aters.

Fig. 1. Map of +est #frica an! the Gulf of Guinea. 23opyright 4 Google 2014.5
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See http6..'''.open)riefing.org.intelligenceunit.intelligencemetho!.

for an e/planation of the 'or!s of estimative pro)a)ility use! )y Open Briefing. Open Briefing | 1

# regional pro)lem 'ith glo)al implications

Maritime insecurity incorporates a range of criminal activities inclu!ing piracy smuggling an! illegal fishing. "he Gulf of Guinea off the south coast of +est #frica has recently surpasse! the more infamous Gulf of #!en off the coast of Somalia in (ast #frica as the epicentre of maritime insecurity. %t is estimate! that such insecurity costs regional economies 72 )illion annually.
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"he Gulf of Guinea is a strategic glo)al tra!e route through 'hich aroun! $0 000 commercial vessels travel every year. "he area provi!es an economic lifeline to )oth coastal an! lan!,loc8e! countries in +est #frica 'hich use it to e/port their economic outputs such as minerals tim)er an! agricultural pro!uce. %t is an area through 'hich top #frican oil pro!ucers 9 such as :igeria #ngola an! (;uatorial Guinea 9 ship their cru!e on to international mar8ets. <urthermore the #tlantic coast of +est #frica from Senegal to #ngola is a centre of ne' !iscoveries of oil an! gas reserves ma8ing the region e/tremely attractive to international tra!e.

The Gulf of Guinea, off the south coast of West Africa, has recently surpassed the more infamous Gulf of Aden, off the coast of Somalia in East Africa, as the epicentre of maritime insecurity.
=igh levels of piracy in the Gulf of Guinea have resulte! in increasing international insurance rates 9 :igeria an! Benin for e/ample are no' in the same ris8 category as Somalia 9 an! other tra!e,relate! costs 'hich in turn !ecreases marine traffic an! re!uces ta/ revenues. Benin in particular is a goo! e/ample6 ta/es on tra!e account for half of Benin>s government revenue 10? of 'hich come from the port of 3otonou 'hose activities contri)ute almost 00? of the country>s G@A. Overall a !ecrease in marine traffic )orne out of insecurity an! higher insurance costs resulte! in a 21? loss in Benin>s government revenue in 2012.
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"he Gulf of Guinea is also a hotspot for illegal tra!e particularly of !rugs an! small arms. @rug traffic8ing an! arms smuggling are le! )y militant groups from the coastal areas across to the Sahel creating greater insecurity in regions alrea!y highly vulnera)le to !esta)ilisation. "hese highly profita)le activities un!ermine !emocracy an! the rule of la' in countries 'here poverty is rampant an! the forces of la' an! or!er su)Bect to corruption. Guinea Bissau is the )est e/ample of the !esta)ilising effect of !rug traffic8ing. %n this case complicity goes as far as the highest ran8s in the country>s government an! arme! forces. "he impact of illegal fishing is often !isregar!e! an! un!erestimate! )ut it remains a critical element of maritime insecurity. %t is estimate! that nearly 40? of the fish caught in +est #frican 'aters is ta8en illegally. #lthough this provi!es millions of !ollars to (uropean an! #sian fishing fleets it affects people>s livelihoo!s )y !amaging the maritime environment an! un!ermining local fishing )usinesses that provi!e sustenance an! employment for a large s'athe of the region>s population.
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http6..'''.!efencei;.com.naval,an!,maritime,!efence.articles.piracy,storm,

)re's,in,'est,africa,gulf,of,guinea,u.
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http6..'''.un.org.africarene'al.magaCine.!ecem)er,201$.piracy,'est,africa

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Maritime piracy costs the glo)al economy a)out 711 )illion a year accor!ing to the +orl! Ban8. "he +est is particularly e/pose!6 40? of (urope>s oil imports an! close to $0? of the &nite! States> transit the area each year. (uropean )usinesses are affecte! since 90? of the cost of implementing security an! of circumnavigating along alternative routes comes out of the shipping in!ustry>s )u!get. @isruption to tra!e in the region also results in higher prices for consumers.
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Maritime piracy costs the global economy about $ ! billion a year according to the World "ank. "he !rivers of maritime insecurity
Airacy off the Somali coast has its root causes in 'ea8 government control over the state a lac8 of legal economic opportunities an! the a)sence of the rule of la'. %n the a)sence of more sustaina)le alternatives international naval patrolling 'as steppe! up in or!er to tac8le the pro)lem. #s a result pirate attac8s !roppe! )y 10? )et'een 2010 an! 2012 though this re;uire! a maBor allocation of resources. %n +est #frica the !estruction of peoples> livelihoo!s unemployment 'i!esprea! corruption an! political an! social insta)ility also !rive people to search for alternative means of sustenance. #s such maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea has fertile groun! in +est #frican states upon 'hich to gro'. Most piracy attac8s in the region ta8e place in :igerian territorial 'aters. %t can )e argue! that maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea initially ha! its epicentre in the oil,rich :iger @elta. Dac8 of )enefits !erive! from oil profits !eteriorating livelihoo!s a culture of la'lessness an! collusion of state authorities 'ith criminal net'or8s translate! into criminal activities oil,theft in particular. Oil theft 9 'hether on lan! 2oil,)un8ering5 or at sea 9 is attractive )ecause of a )ooming )lac8 mar8et for fuel. %t is 'orth noting that the process of hiBac8ing tan8ers syphoning off oil an! selling it on the )lac8 mar8et is costly an! re;uires high,;uality logistics 'hich in!icates that it is lin8e! to local elites.
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Maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea has fertile ground in West African states upon #hich to gro#.
%llicit tra!e is !riven )y insta)ility in +est #frica primarily in the Sahel. %nsurgent movements an! terrorist organisations such as al,Eae!a in the %slamic Maghre) 2#E%M5 rely on !rug traffic8ing an! arms smuggling to finance their activities an! operate in the region. %llegal fishing is attractive !ue to the ease of access to rich sources of fish mostly a result of lac8 of surveillance an! state control over territorial seas 'hich is !erive! not only from inefficient security resources )ut also from corrupt relationships )et'een navies or coast guar!s an! illegal fishing vessels.

http6..'''.'orl!)an8.org.en.ne's.press,release.201$.11.01.pirate,trails,trac8s,!irty,money,

resulting,from,piracy,off,the,horn,of,africa
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http6..'''.iss.europa.eu.uploa!s.me!ia.BriefF20.p!f http6..'''.)roo8ings.e!u.G.me!ia.Hesearch.<iles.Heports.2014.foresight?20africa?202014.

02?20foresight?20piracy?20somalia?20fel)a)?20)ro'n.p!f

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3hallenges an! responses

# lac8 of cooperation surveillance an! information sharing )et'een +est #frican countries remains at the core of the region>s ina)ility to tac8le maritime insecurity. <or years governments have given priority to the reinforcement of lan! forces in or!er to tac8le national an! regional insecurity. "he result 'as the neglect of maritime security forces culminating in un!erfun!e! an! unprepare! coast guar! an! other la' enforcement institutions. <urthermore !ifferent national legislations often !o not allo' or complicate the !eployment of arme! guar!s on vessels or the intervention of international naval forces. #lso relevant is the fact that some local elites are closely lin8e! to an! )enefit from criminal activities thus they are not 'elcoming of an intensive security presence in their territorial 'aters. =o'ever an international an! regional response similar to the one implemente! in the Gulf of #!en seems to )e in the ma8ing. %n Iune 201$ government representatives from the mem)er states of the (conomic 3ommunity of +est #frican States 2(3O+#S5 the (conomic 3ommunity of 3entral #frican States 2(33#S5 an! the Gulf of Guinea 3ommission 2GG35 met in 3ameroon>s capital Jaoun!K in or!er to !iscuss maritime insecurity along the Gulf of Guinea. "he summit culminate! in the signing of a L3o!e of con!uct concerning the repression of piracy arme! ro))ery against ships an! illicit maritime activity in 'est an! central #frica> 'hich focuses on information sharing !eterring illicit maritime activities prosecution,relate! issues an! promoting relevant national legislation.
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An international and regional response seems to be in the making.

Ghana has alrea!y ta8en concrete steps to'ar!s a!!ressing the pro)lem. %t has ta8en a firm stance against corruption 'ithin the government pilote! an information,sharing centre for the region an! esta)lishe! heavy surveillance in its territorial 'aters. "hese actions have proven to )e largely effective particularly consi!ering that recent oil an! gas fin!ings in Ghana coul! )e a maBor attraction for piracy. Buil!ing on these positive !evelopments it 'as agree! that a permanent information,sharing centre 'oul! )e set up in the Ghanaian capital #ccra in 2014. %n @ecem)er 201$ (& institutions issue! a Boint communication on maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea 'ith the aim of assessing the scale of the threat the ris8s it poses to regional states an! the (& an! ho' to help tac8le the pro)lem. "he su)Bect is to )e !iscusse! at the #pril 2014 #frica,(& summit in Brussels. "he &S #frica 3omman! 2#fricom5 is assessing attac8s on &S,flagge! ships an! the threat that maritime insecurity poses to the &S economy. #fricom is supporting improvements in regional maritime capacity mainly through Boint e/ercises an! is also consi!ering an increase in the &S military presence off the coast of +est #frica. %f such international an! regional responses are to )e truly effective they 'ill nee! to )e complemente! )y increase! on,lan! efforts to a!!ress the root causes of maritime insecurity. Such efforts 'ill nee! to go )eyon! a!!itional security measures an! increase! militarisation an! encompass sustaina)le measures to tac8ling socio,economic !eprivation an! local corruption.
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http6..'''.eco'as.int.pu)lications.en.maritimeFsecurity.co!eFofFcon!uct.p!f http6..eur,le/.europa.eu.De/&riServ.De/&riServ.!oMuriNIO%:6201$600$16<%:6(:6A@<

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<orecast for 2014

2014 'ill almost certainly prove a turning point for maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea. "he ris8 it poses to )oth regional an! 'orl! tra!e is immense. Airacy illegal fishing an! traffic8ing also serve to fee! militancy an! ra!icalism hence contri)uting to'ar!s further social an! political insta)ility in the region. %t is vital to safeguar! the normal flo' of tra!e an! guarantee regional an! international security. "he rise of insurance costs for shipping companies the !anger pose! to +esterners an! the unprepare!ness of +est #frican navies creates a gro'ing consensus among governments an! civil society over the nee! to intervene in the Gulf of Guinea. %t is therefore likely that the &nite! States 'ill increase its naval presence in the region. %t is also likely that the (& 'ill participate in an international intervention 'ith a fe' countries provi!ing physical an! financial resources. =o'ever the !eployment coul! possibly )e stalle! )ecause several (& countries have alrea!y allocate! significant resources to the Gulf of #!en an! fear overstretch )y )eing !ra'n into another maBor naval operation in #frica.

$% & #ill almost certainly pro'e a turning point for maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea.
%t is therefore likely that the +est 'ill push +est #frican countries to legislate for the !eployment of arme! security guar!s on their vessels an! agree to greater inter,state colla)oration. Arivate military an! security companies 'ill come at a significant cost an! the potential conflict of interests )et'een the international community an! shipping companies over arme! guar!s an!.or e/ternal intervention 'ill likely force a consensus approach that 'ill possibly fail to a!!ress the root of the pro)lem. %t is highly likely that this 'ill lea! to a temporary increase in violence since pirates in the Gulf of Guinea have proven to )e )ol! an! 'ell,arme!. #s such maritime insecurity in the region is likely to increase throughout 2014 an! Benin "ogo an! Guinea,Bissau in particular are likely to 'itness an increase in criminal activities across their territorial 'aters.

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