Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Agenda
Presentation of gas business
Strategy
Dmitry Lyugai Member of Gazprom Management Committee Head of the Prospective Development Department
Transportation
Oleg Aksyutin Member of Gazprom Management Committee Head of the Gas Transportation, Underground Storage and Utilization Department, CEO & Executive Member of the BoD of South Stream Transport B.V.
Export
Alexander Medvedev
Deputy Chairman of Gazprom Management Committee CEO of Gazprom Export
Finance
Andrey Kruglov
Deputy Chairman of Gazprom Management Committee Head of the Department for Finance and Economics
Special sections
Gazprom Neft
Alexei Yankevich Member of the Management Board of Gazprom Neft Deputy CEO for Economics and Finance of Gazprom Neft
Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by OJSC Gazprom (the Company), and comprises the slides for a presentation to investors concerning the Company. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares or other securities representing shares in the Company, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision.
No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation, or any other material discussed at any presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation should not be treated as giving investment advice. Care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated in this presentation are accurate, and that the opinions expressed are fair and reasonable. However, the contents of this presentation have not been verified by the Company. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its members, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in or discussed at this presentation. None of the Company or any of their respective members, directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The information in this presentation includes forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts, statements regarding the Companys intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, the Companys results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies, and the industry in which the Company operates. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including, without limitation, the risks and uncertainties to be set forth in the prospectus, because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The Company cautions you that forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that its actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates may differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. In addition, even if the Companys results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in future periods. The information and opinions contained in this presentation are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. No person is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. By attending the presentation you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
The following sources are used in the presentation: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013 (June 2013); IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013, New Policies Scenario (November 2013); CEDIGAZ Statistical Database (August 2013); EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013, Reference case (July 2013); Wood Mackenzie; Platts; FactSet; Bloomberg Calorific value of natural gas = 8,850 kcal/m3 (20 0 )
2030 forecast
2012
19% 3% 26%
17% 4% 6% 9%
23% 24%
12%
3.6
tcm
20%
North America 5% 15% Central and South America OECD Europe Other Europe and Eurasia Middle East
2012
30% 25% 26%
2030 forecast
22%
33%
28% 4%
4.6
tcm
17%
Africa 5%
13% Asia Oceania
Oil Nuclear
14%
2012 actual
2030 forecast
bcm
600 400 200 0 North Central OECD America and South Europe America Other Europe and Eurasia Middle East Africa Asia Australia North Central OECD America and South Europe America Other Europe and Eurasia Middle East Africa Asia Australia
Consumption
Production
WORLD NET NATURAL GAS TRADE BY REGION IN 2012 AND 2030 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 North Central OECD America and South Europe America Other Europe and Eurasia
2012 actual
2030 forecast
bcm
Middle East
Africa
Asia
Australia
Middle East
Africa
Asia
Australia
Europe, Asia 2 main gas import regions CIS, Middle East, Africa, Australia 4 exporting regions North America, Central and South America gas markets are self-sufficient
bcm; RR bln
600 300
683
795
RR / 1 000 cm
bcm
2,373
2,745
2,961 815
3,000 2,000 1,000 0 60%
74
400
73 310
300
350
40% 200
288
0
290
2011
275
2012
2010
20%
Domestic Market Volumes (bcm) Revenue (RR bn) Domestic Average Price (RR / 1 000 cm)
2008
Coal
19% 51%
2012
Oil
19%
2030
Coal
Other
11%
Coal
18%
Other
11%
Coal
19%
Other
12%
Oil
22%
Oil
52%
47%
52%
Gas
Source: Base Prospectus. 1. Excluding custom duties
Gas
Gas
GAZPROMS PIPELINE GAS DELIVERIES TO EUROPE decrease of indigenous gas production in Europe no success in shale gas developments slow down of nuclear energy development increase of gas consumption in transportation sector new sectors of gas consumption
700
600
Consumption
200
bcm
Production
207
517
bcm
100
200
100 0
regasification terminals network development policy approach diversification of suppliers and supply routes regulatory frameworks in energy sector become tougher policies on energy efficiency renewable sources of energy subsidizing
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2030
2029
UKRAINE
2012
2030
POLAND
49*
0*
26%
TURKEY
29% %
Min
28
GREAT BRITAIN
4*
5*
2013
* - number of wells, end 2013
2030
5-60 bcm
JSC "Gazprom"
Max
Other sources of gas
Production
0 bcm
Source: Wood Mackenzie, EIA, Platts, ERI RAS, IEA, IHS, Rystad Energy, BP
Upstream development
Key Gazprom gas greenfields
Urengoyskoye (achimov deposits) Pestsovoye (neocomian-jurassic) Yubileynoye (apt-albian, senomanian deposits) Bovanenkovskoye Kharasaveiskoye Severo-Kamennomysskoye Kamennomysskoye -sea Kirinskoye Kirinskiy licensed section Chayandinskoye Kovyktinskoye
Sakhalin-3
RUSSIA
Gas field Continental shelf area DYNAMICS OF PRODUCTION AND GAS RESERVES DEVELOPMENT
1,000
Kovyktinskoye
140%
160 110 800 600
PROSPECTIVE SOURCES OF GAZPROMS GAS PRODUCTION Other new fields East Siberia and Far East fields Yamal Megaproject Operating fields
800
bcm
96%
400 200 0
522
540
545
555
556
549
550
462
509
513
60
bcm
600
79% 69%
118%
400
487
10 -40
200
0 2012 2020 min 2030 min 2020 max 2030 max
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gas production
mln t/year
600
400
200
Baltic LNG
Source: IS CERA, Wood Mackenzie, Pace Global, CEDIGAZ, Poten
Vladivostok LNG
Capacity 10 mln t/year Date of commissioning 2018 (1-st line) Project status feasibility study done (February 2013) Targeted markets Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan, Singapore, India
2005
2000
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Capacity 10 mln t/year Date of commissioning 2019 (1-st line) Project status pre-feasibility stage Targeted markets Spain, Portugal, Great Britain, Latin America, India, small-scale LNG
Length, km
4,000
Fields
Pipelines: existing under construction possible designed Operating lines of LNG plants LNG plants under construction
CHINA
Production sites
Chayandinskoye Kovyktinskoye (incl. Chikanskoye field)
10
RUSSIA
CHINA
DYNAMIC GAS CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN THE COUNTRY LIMITED RESOURCE BASE AT THE TARGETED RUSSIAN GAS MARKETS DETERIORATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY HIGH CURRENT AND PROSPEKTIVE COST OF GAS IMPORT (PIPELINE AND LNG) FROM OTHER SOURCES SIGNIFICANT PRICE GROWTH ON GAS CONSUMPTION IN THE DOMESTIC MARKET AS A RESULT OF PRICING REFORM IN CHINA NO CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS IN SHALE GAS PRODUCTION DIVERSIFICATION OF IMPORT GAS SOURCES PROVISION OF THE COUNTRYS ENERGY SECURITY BY FUEL ENERGY BALANCE VIA GAS
DIVERSIFICATION OF EXPORT MARKETS POSSIBILITY OF GAS SALES AT THE PREMIUM MARKET (APR) WELL DEVELOPED RESERVES BASE RESULTING FROM EXPLORATION IN THE EAST MONETIZATION OF GAS RESERVES IN THE EAST GASIFICATION OF THE EAST SIBERIA AND FAR EAST REGIONS IN PARALLEL
EXPANSION OF TRADE AND ECONOMIC COLLABORATION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA, STRENGTHING THE COUNTRIES POSITIONS IN THE REGION AND WORLDWIDE SWITCH FROM WESTERN TO EASTERN ROUTE OF GAS DELIVERIES DURING THE NEGOTIATIONS
Logo Year of China in Russia 2007 was used in this slide.
11
8%
52 %
PRODUCTION
34 %
6% EXPLORATION 1.UGS is underground gas storage UGSS is unified gas supply system
29%
NPRT Yamal South Stream
Eastern Program
LNG Projects
35%
Eastern Siberia and the Far East Reconstruction in Transport Reconstruction s in Production Other projects within UGSS exploration; existing and new production and transport projects, processing and LNG projects
3%
14%
NPTR Nadym-Pur-Taz Region
20%
12
13
ANADYR
NORWAY
OSLO
SWEDEN
MURMANSK
STOCKHOLM
FINLAND ESTONIA
RIGA Tallinn HELSINKI SAINT PETERSBURG CHEREPOVETS GRYAZOVETC KOTLAS SMOLENSK TORZHOK BRYANSK MOSCOW RYAZAN KIROV SYKTYVKAR URENGOY ARKHANGELSK UKHTA SOBOLEVO
KALININGRAD
LITHUANIA LATVIA
VILNIUS MINSK PSKOV
PETROPAVLOVSKKAMCHATSKY
BELORUSSIA
KIEV
RUSSIA
Sea of Japan
TULA
YELETS
UKRAINE
KURSK
KAZAN
IZHEVSK NIZHNEKAMSK UFA NIZHNEVARTOVSK EKATERINBURG TYUMEN CHELYABINSK ORENBURG ORSK ASTANA OMSK NOVOSIBIRSK BOGUCHANY TOMSK KRASNOYARSK NIZHNYAYA POIMA BALAGANSK IRKUTSK CHITA
SARATOV ROSTOV-ONDON ARMAVIR KRASNODAR NEFTEKUMSK SUKHUMI ASTRAKHAN ABKHAZIA MOZDOK TBILISI MAKHACHKALA
KOMSOMOLSKON-AMUR
KHABAROVSK
KORSAKOV
PROSKOKOVO ABAKAN
JAPAN
GEORGIA
BARNAUL BIYSK
NOVOKUZNETSK GORNOALTAYSK
CHINA
VLADIVOSTOK
ARMENIA
EREVAN
KAZAKHSTAN
AZERBAIJAN
CHINA
MONGOLIA
ULAN-BATOR
NORTH KOREA
14
South Stream
BOVANENKOVO SWITZERLAND URENGOY FRANCE Tarvizio SLOVENIA ITALY UKHTA PEREGREBNOYE SURGUT YUGORSK CROATIA AUSTRIA HUNGARY ROMANIA Anapa SERBIA MOLDOVA SLOVAKIA UKRAINE
BARENTS SEA
NORWAY SWEDEN
NADYM
Zvornik
CS Russkaya
FINLAND
HELSINKI
TALLINN ESTONIA
RUSSIA
VYBORG SAINT PETERSBURG GRYAZOVETS KAZAN PERM UFA
MONTENEGRO
TYUMEN MACEDONIA ASTANA KAZAKHSTAN ALBANIA BULGARIA
Varna
South Stream pipeline route Russia Bulgaria Serbia Hungary Slovenia Italy
GREECE
TURKEY
CS Pochinki
CS Mokshanskaya
RUSSIA
CS Petrovsk
CS Zhirnovskaya
Ukraine
CS Shashtinskaya
CS Volgogradskaya
Sea of Azov
CS Korenovskaya CS Kazachya CS Russkaya
CS Salskaya
Black Sea
15
Development of gas transportation systems in Eastern Siberia and the Far East
Gas production centers
URENGOY 1 Krasnoyarskiy 2 Irkutskiy 3 Yakutskiy OKHA
NIZHNEVARTOVSK TYUMEN
YurubchenoTokhomskoye
4 Sakhalin
SobinskoPaiginskoye Chayandinskoye
SAKHALIN
BOGUCHANY
OMSK TOMSK KRASNOYARSK
3
SKOVORODINO
Malositinskoye UGS
KOMSOMOLSKON-AMUR KHABAROVSK
KORSAKOV
2
Kovyktinskoye
NOVOSIBIRSK
BLAGOVESHCHENSK
BIROBIDZHAN
JAPAN
BIYSK
GORNO-ALTAYSK
VLADIVOSTOK
MONGOLIA CHINA
NORTH KOREA
Power of Siberia
4,000 km 61 bcm p.a. 1st section late 2019
16
853.6
Minsk
BELORUSSIA
Surgut
69.94
Tomsk
Novosibirsk Irkutsk
2013/2014F
Current underground gas storage facilities Under-construction and planned facilities of underground gas storage Areas under exploration for underground gas storage facilities
2014/2015F
2015/2016F
2013F
2.29 23.5
2014F
4.29 55.6
2018F
4.54 80.5
Operating reserve at the beginning of the withdrawal season, bcm Maximum daily production at the beginning of the season, mmcm per day Average daily production in December-February, mmcm per day
17
Reduction in specific gas consumption for own process needs and losses
Target reduction for the period till 2020 11.4%
7.3 7.96
17.6
18
Increase of operating pressure up to 11.8 mPa in the onshore of main gas pipelines and up to 22 MP (at the offshore Nord Stream gas pipeline)
31.7
30 25 20 2004
30.9
30.5
29.6
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 2013F
0.86
0.7
0.51
0.47
0.5
0.46
19
20
Share of Gazprom Deliveries in European Consumption increased from 25.6% in 2012 to 30% in 2013
541.0
253.0 288.1
609.8
298.2
556.0
267.6 288.4
546.7
254.5 292.3
25.6%
30.0%
0 2009
2010
Domestic production Consumption
2011
2012
2013E
2012
2013
252.7 -20.9
24.8 37.9 13.6 6.2 7.5
40.9 81.5
50
0
139.9
+22.9
162.7
50 0
121.4
115.4
2012
Gazprom Nigeria, LNG Algeria, incl. LNG Libya, incl. LNG
2013
Qatar, LNG Other import deliveries
2012
Norway Netherlands
2013
UK
Source: IEA, Eurostat, Lloyds, GIE, Gazprom Export analysis, Gas calorific value: 1cm = 37 MJ
21
156.6
6.6
151.0
11.1
173.7
11.0
71.1
64.4
56.1
138.6
150.0
383
139.9
402
162.7
298 235
308
302
274 250
0
2010 2011 Volumes 2012 Average price 2013E
200
Actual 2006-12 CERA (2013-07) PIRA (2012-3) PIRA (2013-10) CEDIGAZ - base (2013-6)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
22
Gas hub prices are not independent from oilindexed contract prices. The correlation coefficient between hub prices and oil prices moving average equals 0.85
ACER November 2013 Market Monitoring Report states that Oil prices is still the main determinant of wholesale gas prices in Europe(p.180) Gas Hub and Oil-indexed Prices Still Related
The correlation coefficient prove dependence
NBP from January 2010 to December 2013 versus: Brent 1st month futures Brent 1st month futures - 3 months moving average Brent 1st month futures - 6 months moving average Brent 1st month futures - 9 months moving average TTF from January 2010 to December 2013 versus: Brent 1st month futures Brent 1st month futures - 3 months moving average Brent 1st month futures - 6 months moving average Brent 1st month futures - 9 months moving average r 0.69 0.79 0.84 0.83 r 0.69 0.80 0.86 0.85
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Source: IEA
23
Jul-13
24
Gazprom continues to maintain its strong financial position among Oil&Gas majors
Comparative Revenue, EBITDA, Net Income CAGR
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Revenue EBITDA Net income
CAGR of Gazprom for 2007-2012 (1) CAGR of oil & gas majors on average for 2007-2012
USD bln
12%
10% 8% 6% 4%
40 35 30
USD/boe
8%
25 20
15
10 5 0
Source: Companies websites, Factset, Bloomberg as of February 20, 2014 1. Oil & Gas Majors are the top 10 oil and gas companies by market capitalization as of February 20, 2014 2. Based on companies data and broker consensus as of February 20, 2014; for Gazprom 9m2013 LTM
25
100
90
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 Gas transportation
87.3 81.8
91.0
4.7
Yamburg
63.3
0.1 Orenburg Astrahan
5.5
Novy Urengoy
3.7
Tomsk 0.3
Mn tonnes
12
13
15
15
17
18
Refined products
2011
2012
2013E
2014F
2015F
2016F
26
60
Gazprom vs Russian Oil & Gas Majors Free Cash Flow Yield, 9m2013 LTM/2014(2)
11% 10% 9% 7% 6%
51.9
50 8.3 46.5 3.4 10.8
40
30 20 10 0
36.6
7.7
3%
1. Period averages. 2013LTM = 9m2013+12m2012-9m2012 2. Five Russian oil and gas majors by capitalization as of 31 January 2014: Rosneft less increase in long term prepayments on oil supply agreements, Novatek, Lukoil, Surgutneftegaz, Tatneft
27
Increase of Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) transparency: transition to gas MET formula
Gas MET = 15% * Price ratio * Complexity ratio + Transportation ratio Condensate MET = 15% * Price ratio * complexity ratio
Gas MET formula effective from July 1, 2014 Benefits Direct link of tax rates to average realized prices Smoothening the effects of gas tariffs growth deceleration in Russia Tax breaks for key greenfields, depleted and complex fields Higher stability of gas taxation Transparent rules for gas condensate taxation
RR
1000
800
1h2014
2h2014
674
717718
600
400 237
556 509
200
0
147
Key MET tax breaks: Greenfields: Yamal and Gydan peninsula, Irkutsk, Krasnoyarsk regions, Far East Depleted fields: depletion ratio over 70% Complex fields: Astrakhan region Deep layers: over 1,700 m deep
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
Natural gas MET, Gazprom (RR/mcm) Gas condensate MET, Gazprom (RR/1 ton)
* Before 2012 MET rates for gas condensate were set at 17.5% of realization price
28
CAPEX efficiency
USD bln
80 70 60 50 40 30
USD/boe
18 16 14 12
11.5
10.4 8.2
43.1
37.4 29.0 22.1 34.8
10
8 6 4
60%
40% 20% 0%
20
10 0 2006-2008 2009-2011 2012 9m2013 LTM Gazprom Russian oil majors aggregate Gazprom self funding (OpCF/Cash CAPEX)
0
2008-2009 2010-2011 2012 2013E Gazprom Russian oil majors
Source: Companies websites, media sources, Factset, Bloomberg as of February 6, 2014 1. Cash CAPEX; Russian oil & gas majors includes Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, Bashneft, Rosneft, TNK-BP, Tatneft and Transneft
29
Balanced CAPEX
USD bln
35-42
Gas Upstream
Oil
Power Generation 30.0
Bovanenkovo field Brown fields and Nadym-Pur-Taz region Field development projects abroad
Gas Midstream
Bovanenkovo-Ukhta pipeline GTS Extension Southern Corridor Long-term financial investments for the construction of the
South Stream pipeline outside Russia
20.0
10.0
0.0 2012
1. Source: Management Estimates
30
Gas and oil purchased Taxes other than income Transit of gas and oil products 7% Materials 15% Repairs Goods for resale 7% 3% Staff costs Other cash 2% 100% 0%
1%
1%
6%
5% 2% 2% 1% 1% 14% 10%
40%
60%
80%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6%
23% 3% 20% 5%
17% 4% 2% 6% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1% 4%
USD 55%
Roubles 12%
Others 3%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
31
100
80
38% 17%
24% 2011 1-2 years
60
22%
2012 2-5 years
0
17.7
40
14.6
20
28.6
-0.5
32.1 35.2 35.7
0 2010 2011 2012 9m2013 Cash&Cash equivalents and restricted cash Net debt Net Debt/Adj.EBITDA LTM
-1
9 7 5 3 1 2008
2009 2010 2011 2012 Weighted average fixed interest rate Weighted average floating interest rate Weighted average interest rate
9m2013
1. Data are converted in USD using exchange rate RR/USD as of the end of the period 30.48 for 2010, 32.2 for 2011, 30.37 for 2012, and 32.35 in 9m2013 2. Excluding promissory notes
32
Dividend payout
RR / Share
12
9 6 3 0 2010
3.85
8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
4.3%
3.4%
2.6%
2011
2012
2013F
AGM
(27June 2014)
May
June
July
August
1. Company operating data estimates 2. Dividend yield is defined as approved dividends for the period divided to the share price as of February 14, 2014; Source: Companies data, FactSet
33
34
35
36
37
Targets on hydrocarbon production, refining, and marketing premium sales expected to be main vehicles for growth
Changes in PRMS (SPE) proved reserves, mmtoe
1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000
1,343
100.0
60 40 20 0
YE2012
Acquisitions(1)
YE2013
2011
2012
2013
2020
Refining, mmt
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Optional growth outside Russia
22.9 19.5
24.0 40.0
40.0
2011
2012
2013
2020
2011
2012
2013
2020
38
400,000 350,000
300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
2011
2012
2013
+1%
0.30
1. EBITDA includes share of EBITDA of associates and joint ventures Note: In accordance with the transition provisions of IFRS 11 Gazprom Neft has applied the new policy for interests in joint operations occurring on or after 1 January 2012. Gazprom Neft has assessed the nature of its joint arrangements and determined them to be joint ventures, except for its investments in Tomksneft and Salym Petroleum Development, which were determined to be joint operations. For purposes of this presentation the metrics Revenue and Net debt/EBITDA for Y2011 were restated to correctly compare data for 2011-2013.
39
Adj.EBITDA/boe, USD/boe
5
0 Lukoil Gazprom Neft 2013 2012 Rosneft*
ROACE, %
25 20 15 10 5 0 Gazprom Neft 2013
Source: MD&A of Companies and INFOTEK *includes TNK-BP
OCF/boe, USD/boe
30 25 22.8 25.1 21.6 21.4 14.2
17.4
20 15 10 5
18.2
Lukoil 2012
Rosneft
40
Orenburg
41
141
140
124
Kuyumba
Messoyahkha
Novoport
2015 Kuyumba
2017 Novoport
2025
42
SeverEnergia
Increased stake to 40.2%
Reserves (C1+C2): 1.7 bln toe Startup: 2012 Peak: 42 MMToe at 2020-2021
2013
February March April May June July August September October November December
Iraq
Signed a memorandum confirming the General Agreement on Partnership in exploration and development of liquids-rich shales
43
*Joint operations: proportionally consolidated entities (Tomskneft, SPD). ** Joint Ventures: Equity accounted entities (Slavneft, SeverEnergia)
Kboe/day
44
5.1
4.8
2011
Length of horizontal part up to 300m 3 stage hydrofracs
2012
Length of horizontal part up to 800m 5-6 stage hydrofracs
2013
Length of horizontal part up to 1,030m 9-10 stage hydrofracs
45
Kara Sea
Prirazlomnoye
Arkhangelsk
25
2
4.1 2.7
49
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
46
11.1
Omsk
18.4
19.0
19.9
20.9
-3%
20.2
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Surgutneftegaz
*Source: Company Reports
47
Diesel yield
48
Conversion investments will increase light product yields by about 20% between 2013 and 2020
Petroleum product yield structure, %
Half of conversion investment program expected to come online between 2013 and 2017 As a result, conversion rate is expected to increase by 15 ppts Light products will count for 80% of total yields by 2020
100
100
Gasoline
100
22 27 2 7
1 8
27
Naphtha Jet f uel Diesel Lubricants Other (Coke, Bitumen, Heating Oil) Fuel Oil
29
12
1 8 31
29 3
38 3 16 14 4 15 2
31
17
320 16
2013
14 61.3 2017
2014
2015
2016
2017
67.1 82.5 36.7
2018
2019
2020
80.6 94.2 37.9
79.2 36.5
Omsk
Hydrocracking Coking Unit
Moscow
Hydrocracking Flexi Coking
YANOS
Hydrocracking
49
Retail metrics
2
35%
4
1,600 10.1 1,400 1,200 4.2 181 1,000 800 600 947 400 200 2010
14.2 10.1 202 181
Retail metrics
17.7 14.2
205 202
19.0 17.7
228 205
74% x2.4
1.9 0.8
14.9 12.3
9.1
1,043 947
1,060 1,043
1,111 1,060
19.0 18.0 14.0 10.0 228 6.0 2.0 -2.0 -6.0 -10.0 -14.0 1,111 -18.0 -22.0 -26.0 -30.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2010
2011
2012
2013
2011 2010
2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 Russia network Russia network CIS network CIS network Av/ Daily sales per site in Russia Av/ Daily sales per site in Russia
18 14 10 6.0 2.0 -2. -6. -10 -14 -18 -22 -26 -30
50
51
3
2 1 0 Gazprom Neft Lukoil 0.8
Rosneft*
* Includes TNK-BP
52
21,235
91,077 98,516
Short-term deposits
36,869
185,922
0%
1 year 1 - 2 years 2 - 5 years Over 5 years
Debt
Fin. assets
Net debt
Net debt/EBITDA 0.59x vs. target <1.5x Increased average debt maturity from 3.81 years in 4Q12 to 5.15 years in 4Q13 Increased average interest rate from 3.48% at December 31, 2012 to 3.68% at December 31, 2013 Diversified debt portfolio: bank loans, bonds, PXF (pre-export finance facility), LPN (loan participation notes)
53
54
Chonskiy
North unit Complete 3D seismic field work using UniQ technology (400km2) and 3D seismic surveying (200 km2) Drill 3 exploration wells Carry out pilot well test - 1 well South unit Complete 3D seismic surveying (300 km2) Drill 2 exploration wells Carry out pilot well test - 1 well
Appraisal Selection Specification Realization
Exploration
Appraisal
Selection
Specification
Realization
Kuyumba,
Phase 1 Phase 2 and 3
Develop a concept for integrated field infrastructure Carry out 3D seismic surveying (1100 km2) and 2D seismic surveying (600 km) Drill 4 exploration wells Test production drill 8 horizontal wells with horizontal sections from 500 to 900m, confirm geological hydrodynamic models
Selection Specification Realization
Exploration
Exploration
Appraisal
Dolginskoye
Sign the necessary service contracts for exploratory drilling in 2014 (well 3SD) Drill well 3SD and test up to 3 productive zones Revision of the license obligations Search for a partner in the project Preparations for drilling in 2015
Kurdistan (Iraq)
Shakal Complete 3D seismic field work Drill 2 exploration wells Garmian Drill 1 exploration wells Halabja Complete interpretation of 2D seismic surveys
Appraisal Selection Specification Realization
Exploration
Appraisal
Selection
Specification
Realization
Exploration
Venezuela
Step-by-step realization of contractual agreement for supplementary exploration (first stage completion) Continue realization of Early production project Pipeline construction as part of Early production Continue construction of roads and bridges Base engineering of Upgrader and ground-level infrastructure
Built a portfolio of license blocks for KMPA Create a first pass commercial view
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Orenburg
Phase 1-2 Phase 3
Commission high-pressure gas compressor and third technological line at CPF Complete well stock metering control project Commission external transport oil pipeline (2.4 MMTonnes/year) and the first start-up complex of CPF (1.5 MMTonnes/year) Begin construction of gas pipeline to Orenburg gas processing plant, booster compressor station and gas compressor station
Selection Selection Specification Specification Realization Realization
SeverEnergia
Tsarichanskoye
Exploration Appraisal
Drill 62 production wells Implement test production at oil rims (Samburgskoye and Yaro-Yakhinskoye fields) Commission 2 trains of GPF(14 bcm per year total) at Urengoyskoye field; GPF (7 bcm per year) at Yaro-Yakhinskoye; 3d train of GPF (2.3 bcm per year) at Samburgskoye field Implement program to explore oil part of achimovsky deposits at Samburgskiy license area Commission 1st train of CPF at Yaro-Yakhinskoye
Selection Specification Realization
Exploration
Appraisal
Appraisal
Exploration
Novoport
Phase 1 Phase 2
Drill 7 wells and carry out exploration wells test program (phases 1-2) Launch CPF (400 MTonnes/year) Complete oil pipeline construction (oil field to CPF) Start summer crude shipments (temporary scheme) Complete phase 1 design and survey work and get approval from the Directorate-General for State Environmental Review for the Arctic Terminal and infrastructure
Selection Selection Specification Realization
Prirazlomnoye
Complete design and survey work for the 3rd start-up complex Commission off-shore ice-resistant fixed platform Prirazlomnaya Commission 3 wells (1 production, 1 injection and 1 absorbing) Begin oil shipments Commission field camp and water-supply facilities
Exploration Exploration
Appraisal Appraisal
Exploration Exploration
Appraisal Appraisal
Selection Selection
Specification Specification
Specification
Realization
Realization Realization
Messoyakha
Phase 1 Phase 2
Carry out preliminary work for construction of gasturbine power plant, CPF and pipeline Complete phase 1 design and survey work of the key infrastructure Complete drilling well pads #1,2 and well testing Drill 2 exploration wells 3D seismic survey, Phase 2 West (drill and test 1 exploration well), East (drill well pad #4, 3D seismic 490 km2, drill 1 exploration well, test 2 objects, model specification)
Badra
1 (infrustructure) 2 (development)
Complete setting up a field development plan Launch: Technological line CPF In-field pipeline Export oil pipeline Wells BD4, BD5 Begin construction of Technological line GPF Commission well 8 Start commercial production Start production drilling (5 drilling rigs)
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49.33 MMTonnes
4.74 MMTonnes
12.39 MMTonnes
Export sales (CIS, NIS a.d, NoviSad, Gazprom Neft Trading Gmbh)0
57
58
24
16
23
30 16 19
33
23
32
22
Transmission
52% 57%
31-50 years
> 50 years
Private investments in the industry exceed $40 bn since 2006 The electricity market is completely liberalized Projects within the Capacity Delivery Agreements (CDA) provide 14% IRR of the players investments
The largest generating companies in Russia, GW
GEH
RusHydro
Inter RAO RosAtom EuroSibEnergo
Source: companies data
59
25.2
19.5
4.5% 4.4%
3.5% 1.5%
2.9%
1,049
1,062
1,076
1,091
1,106
1,121
3.0%
0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -7.8%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2017
2019
2016
2018
2020
-9.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: EIU forecast 2014 Source: World Bank, EIA, statistical agencies of the countries
Sources: fact 2012 Energy Forecasting Agency, forecast is evaluated indicatively basing on GDP forecast of MED
GDP growth rates are expected to recover to 3-4% per year in 2014-2018
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Installed capacity
Production
37.7 GW
159.6 bn kWh 124.8 mm Gcal Electricity Heat 12.3 GW 35,1 th. Gcal/h 58.6 bn kWh 67.6 mm Gcal $0.96 bn(1) 15% Electricity Heat 7.2 GW 14,2 th. Gcal/h 29.3 bn kWh 27.3 mm Gcal $0.70 bn(1) 22.6% Electricity Heat 18.0 GW 4.5 th. Gcal/h 70.7 bn kWh 6.8 mm Gcal 0.77 bn(1) 22.7% Electricity 0.2 GW 1.0 bn kWh Heat 17.5 th. Gcal/h 23.1 mm Gcal
53.5%
51.8%
Installed capacity
Production
77.3%
Installed capacity
98.9%
1. As of February 25, 2014
Production
61
The industry specifics give less space for price and volume maneuver, therefore the company is focused on efficiency enhancement The strategic goals of GEH remain the retention of its leading position in the industry, entry into new markets and social responsibility to its personnel
62
2010 * IFRS
2011
2012
2013F 2014F
The company has executed the program of expense reduction: Successful operational activities (optimization of load conditions and fuel balance, reduction of worktime for unprofitable units, effect from new capacities)
Advisory, legal, auditor services(1) Transportation expenses (1) Materials and supplies expenses (1)
Gazprom Energoholding completed its acquisition of MOEK : MOEK acquisition will allow Mosenergo to eliminate the risk related to the loss of a part of heat loads (due to the merger of MOEK and MTK) Commissioning of new effective units results in expense reduction: New CHPPs in TEC-21 and TEC-26 commissioned in recent years reduces the fuel consumption significantly
1. RAS as of December 31, 2013
256
217
212
209
TEC-21 9m2012
TEC-26 9m2013
63
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
35.0% -25.0%
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Source: Bloomberg consensus as of January 27, 2014 * Excluding MOEK The 2013 results exclude the depreciation tests and potential transactions with the assets of Khimki Heating Grids
64
+1.5
RR bn
+0.8
RR bn
+1.8
RR bn
+0.8
RR bn
+0.8
RR bn
+0.5
RR bn
2013
2014
2013
2014
2013
2014
Some measures/initiatives will also allow the company to increase its value in the future:
Impact from the MOEK acquisition: Gas savings due to load switching Optimization of heat management system Sale of land Other*
CDA program finalization Improvement of corporate management by means of introducing Fortum representatives to the Board
Management reporting data * Other effects include the use of equipment from MOEK boilers subject to be closed at other objects and extra income from the rental or sale of office buildings
65
Projects in Russia
Power fuel stations Agreement on power fuel stations was signed with the Government of Moscow Particularly, GEH reached the preliminary agreements concerning the measures for increasing the number of electric vehicles and building the required infrastructure in Moscow
Pancevo project Construction of a 208 MW CHPP in the town of Pancevo together with NIS Return on investments is guaranteed by long-term agreements on fuel supplies and sales of heat and electricity
Projects abroad
Potential foreign projects GEH is permanently monitoring markets which can be potentially interesting for business development. At the moment the company is evaluating the opportunities in Germany, Serbia and other Balkan countries, as well as in Japan, China and Vietnam
66
Gazprom Energoholding is the largest owner of power generating assets in Russia (controlling stakes in Mosenergo, TGK-1, OGK-2 and MOEK) GEH unites 81 power stations with installed capacity of ca. 37.7 GW (about 17% of the total installed capacity of the Russian electric power industry), and is one of the Top-10 European power producers
Top-10 European power generating companies by installed capacity, 1H 2013, GW
139.5 97.8
17%
83%
67.7
(2)
14.9%
84.5%
Source: company data
1. Source for the total installed capacity in Russia (223 GW) data of the System Operator 2. GdF Suez installed capacity in Europe
67
166.9
158.6
167,5
Revenue (IFRS)
+5.3%
323.8
336.1
354.0
kWh bn
RR bn
Heat output
101.1
99.7
101.6
EBITDA (IFRS)
46.3
52.7
53.7
Gcal mm
RR bn
Source: Companies data Data for Mosenergo and OGK-2 exclude the 2013-2014 depreciation tests. Data for Mosenergo are shown without the potential effects of the transactions with Khimki Heating Grids assets
68
GEH invests into CDA projects, all of which are profitable Share of new capacities reached 15.9% in the 2013 revenue, and is still growing In 2014-2017 the company will continue the CDA program according to the accepted timeline
499
4.2x
118 Essential tariff CDA tariff
IRR 13-14%
9.4%
14.0%
2011
2012
2013
Mosenergo
TGK-1
OGK-2
before 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
In the coming years GEH will continue to execute the CDA program, and will also obtain additional income from the previously commissioned CDA units
69
Economy due to the switch of loads from ineffective boiler stations of MOEK to GEH stations (potential effect over RR 10 bn) Up to 3,500 Gcal/h may be switched to combined cycle generation
The measures are expected to result in the reduction of heat losses by 1 mm Gcal by the end of 2013 headcount by 1 thousand employees
Potential sale of land plots under the boiler stations to be closed Obtaining the status of a Unified Heat Supplying Company in Moscow and other operational synergies
Upon acquisition of MOEK, GEH will control 93% of heat generation in Moscow The transaction will also allow GEH to control 93% of heat distribution market
75 ~300 ~225
Potential economy
93%
Mosenergo MOEK
93%
Others
70
Segments Electricity
0%
0% no resolution yet + 0-4,2% + 4,2%
3%
+ 3-4% same level + 0-4,2% + 4,2%
Fuel
Gas
Coal
0%
+ 0-1%(3)
+ 7%
+ 0-1%(3)
* 1. 2. 3.
Companys expectations based upon the recent public releases about the potential changes in tariffs and prices Market Council forecast In case the change is 0% starting from 01.01.2014 Excluding the Russian Railways tariff
71
Department for Finance&Economics Corporate Finance Directorate Fax: (007) (495) 719-35-41
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